Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB), Financial Analysis

1 Revenue & Business Model

• Storyline: volume growth accelerated to 16% in Q3 2026 and GBV to 21%, while revenue rose 18.9% and the take rate fell, primarily as RNPL guests book further in advance of stay. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three revenue drivers: core stays by region; hotels, services, experiences and insurance; supply and regulation of short term rentals. Operating margin reached 41.5% and the board added a $12bn buyback authorization.
• Business model: Airbnb runs a marketplace for stays, experiences and services in over 220 countries and regions with over 5 million hosts (10-K FY2025). Revenue is service fees net of incentives and refunds, recognised at check in; substantially all of it comes from stays. Nearly all hosts have moved to a single 15.5% host service fee (Q3 2026 letter).
• Revenue FY2021 $5.99bn to FY2025 $12.24bn, a 19.6% CAGR; GBV $46.9bn to $91.3bn; Nights and Seats Booked 300.6m to 533.0m. TTM Q3 2026 revenue $13.93bn and GBV $104.5bn.
• One reportable segment: chief operating decision maker is the CEO, who manages on consolidated net income. Revenue by product line is not disclosed; revenue by listing region is.
• Geography: FY2025 revenue by listing location was North America $5.20bn, EMEA $4.73bn, Latin America $1.16bn and Asia Pacific $1.16bn; 61% came from listings outside the US. No city exceeded 2% of revenue in 2024 or 2025.
• Seasonality: revenue and adjusted EBITDA have historically been highest in Q3 and lowest in Q1; Q3 is the peak travel season in North America and EMEA; free cash flow is typically highest in Q1 and lowest in Q4, a pattern RNPL is changing (10-Q Q3 2026).

2 Core Stays: Nights Up 16% and Double Digit Growth in Every Region

• Nights and Seats Booked 155.0m in Q3 2026, +16%, after +9% in Q1 and +10% in Q2 2026; FY2025 533.0m, +8%. Substantially all volume is nights; a seat is counted per participant in an experience or service.
• GBV $27.7bn, +21% (+21% excluding FX), a five point sequential acceleration; ADR $178.83, +4%. Per letter, lead times extended, in part due to RNPL; RNPL bookings require no payment at the time of booking (10-Q).
• Revenue by listing region, Q3 2026: North America $1.94bn, +20.0%; EMEA $2.30bn, +16.7%; Latin America $306m, +30.2%; Asia Pacific $323m, +18.8% (10-Q).
• Regional detail (letter): North America nights up low double digits, the fastest in four years, ADR +6%; EMEA nights up mid teens, ADR +5% (+7% excluding FX); Latin America nights up over 20%, with Brazil origin nights up over 30%; Asia Pacific nights up over 20%, with India origin nights up over 60%.
• Demand channels: app share of nights 66% against 62%, with app nights +29%; first time bookers +13%, the highest since early 2022 (letter).

How lodging demand is changing

• Online travel agencies: Booking room nights +6.7% to 345m in Q3 2026, with alternative accommodation room nights at Booking.com about +7% after +4% in Q2 2026 (Booking 8-K, 3 Nov 2026); Expedia booked room nights +7% and gross bookings +11% to $34.0bn (Expedia 10-Q, 4 Nov 2026).
• Hotels: Marriott worldwide RevPAR +6.5%, US and Canada +7.4% (Marriott 8-K, 2 Nov 2026); Hilton comparable RevPAR +5.8% with FY2026 RevPAR outlook +4.0% to 4.5% (Hilton 8-K, 27 Oct 2026).
• Booking terms: RNPL was roughly 20% of Airbnb global GBV in Q1 2026 (Q1 2026 letter); per the 10-Q, RNPL bookings have experienced higher cancellation rates than bookings paid at least in part at booking.
• Geopolitics: Q1 2026 nights grew over 9%, about 10% absent the Middle East conflict; in Q3 2026 Airbnb said it was closely monitoring ongoing developments in EMEA (letters).
• Relative growth: Airbnb nights +16% against room night growth of 6.7% at Booking and 7% at Expedia in Q3 2026.

3 Beyond Homes: Hotels, Services, Experiences and Insurance

• Disclosure: Airbnb reports no separate revenue for hotels, services, experiences or insurance; experiences and services earn a host fee only. Figures below are growth rates and counts from the shareholder letters.
• Hotels: boutique and independent hotels started in New York, Los Angeles, Madrid and San Francisco in Q4 2025 and reached over 60 destinations in Q3 2026, a single digit % of nights; hotel nights grew about three times as fast as homes in Q2 2026; about 35% of guests whose first booking is a hotel return to book a home.
• Services and experiences: launched in May 2025, with a planned $200m to $250m for new businesses in 2025 (Q4 2024 letter); services added grocery delivery, car rentals, airport pickups, luggage storage and resort passes in 2026; experiences supply up nearly 80% in Q2 2026; almost half of experience bookings are not attached to a stay (Q4 2025).
• Insurance and fees: guest travel insurance revenue up nearly 70% in Q3 2026, after over 25% in Q3 2025; pilots of further insurance products for guests and hosts began. Per letter, higher contra revenue, incl. incentives and credits related to new business initiatives, was a lesser factor in the lower take rate of 17.6%, after the expansion of RNPL.
• Distribution: American Express brought over 1m Airbnb listings to Amex Travel from 22 Oct 2026; Airbnb plans its own AI travel agent for guests in H1 2027 (Q3 2026 letter).

How adjacent travel products are changing

• Experiences: TripAdvisor's Viator revenue fell 3% to $284.8m in Q3 2026 on 6.8m bookings (+2%) and about $1.3bn of GBV (flat); segment margin 13.4% against 17.8% (TripAdvisor 8-K, 5 Nov 2026). TripAdvisor completed the sale of TheFork to American Express on 1 Nov 2026.
• Ground and air: Booking rental car days fell 0.7% to 23m while airline tickets rose 19.4% to 21m in Q3 2026 (Booking 8-K, 3 Nov 2026).
• B2B and attractions: Expedia B2B gross bookings rose 18.8% to $11.1bn in Q3 2026, with a 27.5% segment adjusted EBITDA margin; Expedia acquired attractions platform Tiqets in 2026 (Expedia 8-K, 4 Nov 2026).
• Hotel brands in rentals: Marriott's FY2025 Form 10-K describes Homes & Villas by Marriott Bonvoy as a premium rental homes offering inside its loyalty program and names Airbnb and Vrbo as competitors; listings are not quantified.
• Tours: Trip.com packaged tour revenue $171m in Q2 2026 (quarter to Jun 2026), +8% (6-K, 16 Sep 2026).

4 Supply and Regulation: EU Rental Rules, Listing Limits and Hotel Supply

• Supply: over 9m active listings at end 2025 and high single digit listing growth in Q3 2026; over 550,000 listings removed under the quality system since 2023; over 5.5m hosts (letters).
• EU rules: the EU Short Term Rental Regulation enters into force in May 2026, requiring listing registration, host information transparency and data reporting by platforms (10-K FY2025).
• Spain: Spain's Ministry of Consumer Affairs proposed a fine of about EUR 65m ($76m) in 2025 over alleged non compliance with short term rental listing rules (10-K FY2025).
• Local limits: the 10-K lists night caps, density limits, primary residence or host presence rules, permit caps, minimum stays and permit lotteries; it states that New York City has effectively banned short term rentals and that similar limits are under consideration across New York State.
• Cost of policy work: field operations and policy expense $291m in Q3 2026, +12.4%, and $826m in 9M 2026, +20% (10-Q). Lodging, host withholding and transactional tax add back in adjusted EBITDA $13m in Q3 2026.

How short term rental supply and regulation are changing

• Booking: Booking's FY2025 Form 10-K adds that some jurisdictions now require licences for alternative accommodations and that overtourism rules may cap listings; Booking.com alternative accommodations were about 37% of its room nights in Q3 2026 against 36% (Booking 10-Q).
• Vrbo: Expedia had about 2.5m Vrbo listings within about 3.9m lodging properties at 30 Sep 2026, against 2.4m Vrbo listings at end 2025 (Expedia 10-Q, 4 Nov 2026).
• Hotel supply: about 73% of US hotel rooms were brand affiliated in 2025 and Marriott held about 17% of the US market by rooms (Marriott 10-K); Marriott net rooms +4.6% and Hilton net units +6.0% in Q3 2026.
• Airbnb in constrained cities: Airbnb began hotel listings in cities where supply is constrained by demand or regulation, starting with New York, Los Angeles, Madrid and San Francisco (letters, Feb and May 2026).
• China: Trip.com's main regulatory item is the RMB5.2bn ($763m) anti monopoly penalty from the SAMR booked in Q2 2026; it does not quantify short term rental exposure (6-K).

5 Financial Analysis & Ratios

• Operating margin 41.5% in Q3 2026 against 39.7%; TTM 22.5%. FY2025 20.8% and FY2024 23.0%. Stock based compensation TTM $1.77bn, 12.7% of revenue.
• Net income TTM $3.21bn, 23.0% of revenue; diluted EPS TTM $5.35. FY2023 net income of $4.79bn included a $2.69bn tax benefit from releasing the valuation allowance; FY2025 included a $213m CAMT credit valuation allowance.
• Free cash flow TTM $4.90bn, 35.2% of revenue (non GAAP); Q3 2026 $1.43bn against $1.35bn. Capex stays small: $82m in Q3 2026 incl. a property purchase in New York in Jul 2026. RNPL moves payment and unearned fees closer to the stay date, which shifts quarterly cash flow (Q3 2026 letter).
• Balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026: cash, cash equivalents and short term investments $12.6bn ($2.8bn at foreign subsidiaries); funds held for customers $7.4bn, matched by an equal liability; senior notes $2.5bn principal, $2.37bn carrying value after a $109m hedge fair value adjustment; new $1.0bn five year revolver (30 Oct 2026) undrawn.
• Capital returns: buybacks TTM $3.9bn, 80% of free cash flow; no dividend. Fully diluted share count 628m in Sep 2026 against 646m in Sep 2025.

Cost structure and profitability

• Costs and expenses $2.85bn in Q3 2026, +15.3%, against revenue +18.9%, so costs fell to 58.5% of revenue from 60.3%.
• Sales and marketing $762m, +19.2%, the largest line; brand and performance marketing $1.56bn in 9M 2026 against $1.20bn, driven by paid growth marketing and partnerships (10-Q).
• Cost of revenue $651m, +18.6%, mainly merchant fees and chargebacks ($515m against $447m in the segment expense note) and server costs; gross margin 86.6%.
• Operations and support $393m, +7.7%: AI support resolved about 40% of all support issues without a human agent and support cost per booking fell over 17% (letter).
• Free cash flow and buybacks: buybacks exceeded free cash flow in Q2 and Q4 2025; in Q3 2026 buybacks of $712m were below free cash flow of $1.43bn.

6 MD&A & Management Commentary

Q3 2026 shareholder letter and Form 10-Q

• Against the company's own outlook (8-K of 6 Aug 2026): revenue $4.87bn against $4.69bn to $4.77bn; GBV growth +21% against mid teens; adjusted EBITDA margin 52% against a guide of slightly below the prior year's 50%.
• Volume (letter): every region grew nights at a double digit rate: North America low double digits, its fastest in four years; EMEA mid teens; Latin America and Asia Pacific over 20%. App share of nights 66% against 62%, with app nights +29%; first time bookers +13%, the highest since early 2022.
• Price and monetization (letter): ADR $178.83, +4% (+5% excluding FX), up in all regions. Implied take rate 17.6% fell, primarily on the expansion of RNPL and to a lesser extent on higher contra revenue for new business initiatives; guest travel insurance revenue rose nearly 70%.
• Costs (10-Q MD&A): total costs +15%; cost of revenue +19% with merchant fees and chargebacks +$68m and server costs +$35m; sales and marketing +19%, with brand and performance marketing $471m (+24%); product development +13%; operations and support +8%, incl. $26m lower third party support costs from AI.
• Below operating income (10-Q): interest income $182m; interest expense $45m against $6m, of which $31m on the senior notes; effective tax rate 13% against 23%. FY2026 effective tax rate expected in mid teens (letter).
• 10-Q disclosures: RNPL bookings need no payment at booking and show higher cancellation rates, so GBV, revenue and cash timing are becoming less correlated; MD&A notes the Middle East conflict has had and may continue to have an impact on booking trends.

Management and CFO commentary

• Q3 2026 letter (8-K Ex 99.1, 5 Nov 2026): revenue +19%, primarily from double digit growth in nights stayed and a moderate ADR increase; more than 50 products and features shipped in Q3 2026, nearly 70% more than a year earlier; origin nights in expansion markets grew at the fastest pace in almost three years.
• Q3 2026 letter, financial section: take rate fell primarily on the expansion of RNPL and to a lesser extent on higher contra revenue for new business initiatives; nearly all hosts migrated to the single 15.5% fee; unearned fees $1.5bn against $1.8bn due to RNPL; Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin expected slightly lower on marketing timing.
• Q3 2026 letter, capital: fully diluted share count down about 10% since Q3 2022, with over $17bn spent on buybacks and taxes on vested employee shares.
• Q3 2026 letter, outlook: Airbnb is closely monitoring ongoing developments in EMEA and raised its FY2026 outlook for revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin.
• Q2 2026 letter (6 Aug 2026): time from concept to delivery cut by as much as 60%; nearly 45% of issues that begin in the AI assistant resolved without a human agent; customer support cost per booking down about 16%; over 150,000 first time World Cup listings.
• Q1 2026 letter (7 May 2026): nights growth over 9%, about 10% absent the Middle East conflict; RNPL about 20% of global GBV; nearly 60% of engineers' code coauthored with AI; about 55% of hotel bookers return to book a home.
• Q4 2025 letter (12 Feb 2026): RNPL adoption over 70% of eligible US bookings; hotel pilot in four cities; 15.5% single fee rollout began in Oct 2025; majority of business concentrated in five countries.

7 Sector & Competitor Analysis

• Sector: online travel and lodging. TTM revenue: Booking $28.1bn, Expedia $16.2bn, Airbnb $13.9bn and TripAdvisor $1.83bn (TTM to Jun 2026); Trip.com H1 2026 net revenue RMB31.9bn. FY2025 gross bookings: Booking $186.1bn on 1.24bn room nights, Expedia $119.6bn on 415.4m room nights, Airbnb GBV $91.3bn.
• Growth: ABNB +18.9% in Q3 2026 against EXPE +11.9%, BKNG (1.3%) reported (+8.7% on adjusted revenue), TCOM +11.2% in H1 2026 (RMB) and TRIP (7.1%) in Q2 2026.
• Margins: ABNB TTM operating margin 22.5% against BKNG 32.8%, EXPE 17.2%, TCOM 7.8% (H1 2026, incl. the SAMR penalty) and TRIP 2.3%; free cash flow margin 35.2% against BKNG 32.8% and EXPE 23.1%.
• Take rates FY2025 (revenue over gross bookings, definitions differ): Airbnb 13.4%, Booking 14.5%, Expedia 12.3%.
• Valuation: ABNB 35.3x TTM P/E and 7.4x EV/Sales against BKNG 17.5x and 4.6x, EXPE 15.2x and 2.0x; market value $112.5bn against BKNG $125.3bn and EXPE $32.0bn. ABNB net cash $10.1bn, BKNG net debt $3.9bn, EXPE net cash $0.1bn.

8 Material Events & Contracts

• Eight Forms 8-K in twelve months: four quarterly results letters (Item 2.02), the senior notes offering, the CTO departure and the annual meeting results. No Form 8-K/A was filed.
• Debt: $2.5bn of senior unsecured notes issued on 16 Mar 2026 in three tranches; underwriters bought at 99.528%, 99.294% and 99.219% of principal; make whole call before par call dates; repurchase at 101% on a change of control triggering event; covenants limit liens, sale and leaseback transactions and mergers (Ex 1.1, 4.1, 4.2). Proceeds repaid the $2.0bn 0% convertible notes due Mar 2026.
• Management change: CTO Aristotle Balogh left in Dec 2025 after seven years (8-K of 21 Nov 2025). The Q3 2026 Form 10-Q names Ahmad Al Dahle as CTO.
• Not in an 8-K: the related party sale of intellectual property for $7.1m to an AI lab controlled by the CEO is disclosed in Item 5 of the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q (table 6.3).

9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

• Founder control: Class A carries one vote and Class B 20 votes. Officers and directors as a group held 1.5% of Class A and 90.1% of Class B, 80.6% of voting power, at 8 Apr 2026 (proxy statement). Brian Chesky held 31.9% of votes, Nathan Blecharczyk 31.1% and Joe Gebbia 17.6%; Sequoia Capital affiliates 8.8%; Vanguard 9.1% of Class A and 1.0% of votes. Class B converts on transfer or at the 20 year anniversary of the Dec 2020 IPO.
• Shares outstanding at 15 Oct 2026: 424.6m Class A, 163.0m Class B and 9.2m Class H, held by the Host Endowment subsidiary (10-Q cover). Class B fell from 175.6m at 8 Apr 2026 as founders converted shares to Class A for sale.
• Annual meeting of 5 Jun 2026: Nathan Blecharczyk, Alfred Lin and James Manyika elected as Class III directors, Lin with 102.5m votes withheld (97.3% for); PwC ratified; say on pay 99.4%. Dual class sunset proposal received 250.7m votes for and 3.56bn against (6.6% of votes cast); three other shareholder proposals each received under 3.3m votes for. Votes count Class B at 20 votes per share.
• Insider trades, 6 Nov 2025 to 6 Nov 2026 (113 Forms 4): no open market purchases; open market sales of about $1.14bn, all flagged as Rule 10b5 1 plan trades: Joe Gebbia (director, co founder) 4.67m shares for about $665m (Nov 2025 to Jul 2026); Nathan Blecharczyk (Chief Strategy Officer, co founder) 1.67m shares for about $271m; Brian Chesky (CEO) 1.32m shares for about $186m (Dec 2025, May to Aug 2026).
• Other sellers: CFO Ellie Mertz about $6.8m; former CTO Aristotle Balogh about $5.0m; director Kenneth Chenault about $2.7m; chief accounting officer David Bernstein about $1.7m. Shares withheld for tax on vesting about $4.8m. Sequoia, through director Alfred Lin, converted and distributed about 2.0m shares in kind in Nov 2025.
• Data gaps: the 13F holder trend over four quarters and the Schedule 13D and 13G history were not compiled for this report; ownership comes from the proxy statement.

2026 annual meeting

• Meeting of 5 Jun 2026: held virtually; results filed under Item 5.07. No remarks or question and answer transcript was filed.

10 Risk Factors

• Scope: Item 1A of the FY2025 Form 10-K compared with the FY2024 Form 10-K, heading by heading and body by body: 53 factors in both, none added or removed, 6 materially reworded, among them the AI factor, which now cites the EU AI Act. The Q1 2026 Form 10-Q adds a rewritten indebtedness factor after the notes issue; the Q2 and Q3 2026 Forms 10-Q report no material changes.

How risk factors changed

• Comparison: 10-K FY2025 filed 12 Feb 2026 acc 0001559720-26-000004 against 10-K FY2024 filed 13 Feb 2025 acc 0001559720-25-000010.
• Factor count stays at 53 and total length falls 2% from 25,293 to 24,745 words; no factor was added or removed.
• AI is named in 7 risk factors against 5 a year earlier, and AI regulation text moves from the data privacy factor into a longer AI factor citing the EU AI Act (August 2026) and four US states.
• Short term rental regulation adds the EU STR Regulation (May 2026) and a proposed EUR 65m ($76m) fine in Spain.
• Tax text replaces FY2024 CAMT and excise accrual figures with Pillar Two and Italian withholding facts.
• Debt risk is the only 10-Q update in 2026, after the $2.5bn notes issue in March 2026 replaced the $2.0bn convertible notes.

11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

• ABNB traded at $188.61 on 6 Nov 2026 (intraday), +10.9% from the 5 Nov close of $170.13; Q3 2026 results came after that close. The 52 week range is $110.81 to $193.45; the price is 2.5% below the 52 week high and above every month end close since Nov 2021. The last point of the price chart is the 6 Nov 2026 intraday price; earlier points are month end closes.
• Price path: month end close $166.49 in Dec 2021, $85.50 in Dec 2022, $135.72 in Dec 2025, $143.10 in Jun 2026, $183.22 in Aug 2026 and $164.39 in Oct 2026.
• Valuation: 35.3x TTM diluted EPS of $5.35; market value $112.5bn on 596.7m Class A, B and H shares ($110.8bn excluding Class H); EV/Sales 7.4x TTM using net cash of $10.1bn; FCF yield 4.4%.
• Scenario model: revenue grows from TTM Q3 2026 $13.93bn for three years; GAAP operating margin as stated, after stock based compensation; net interest income $553m a year as in the TTM; 17% tax rate; share count reduced by buybacks as stated; price equals TTM Q3 2029 EPS times exit P/E.

Critical factors and core assumptions

• Revenue base TTM Q3 2026 $13.93bn; FY2026 about $14.4bn at the Q4 outlook midpoint (computed). Revenue is recognised at check in, so GBV leads revenue, more so under RNPL.
• Best case: 16% revenue CAGR, 30% operating margin, 32x P/E, shares 9% lower; nights growth stays in low to mid teens, new businesses add volume, take rate rises and AI lowers cost per booking.
• Base case: 12% revenue CAGR, 26% margin, 26x P/E, shares 6% lower; nights growth settles near 9% to 10% as the RNPL effect fades, ADR +2% to 3%, take rate flat.
• Worst case: 6% revenue CAGR, 20% margin, 18x P/E, shares 3% lower; travel demand slows, short term rental rules tighten, RNPL cancellations rise and AI agents move demand to third party channels.
• Tax rate 17%, between the FY2026 mid teens guide and the long term mid to high teens rate (letter, 10-K); net interest income $553m a year; no dividend; dual class control persists.

Scenarios, three years forward

Sensitivity analysis

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 6 November 2026 (intraday price).

Sources

All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Management statements come from the shareholder letters and other exhibits to the Forms 8-K and from the Forms 10-Q. Industry figures are taken only from SEC filings of Airbnb and its peers.