November 5, 2026·45 min read

Qualcomm (QCOM), Financial Analysis

Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.

Revenues Q4 FY2026
$10.3bn
(8.4%) year on year (Q4 FY2025 $11.3bn)
Costs and expenses Q4 FY2026
$8.97bn
+7.3% year on year (Q4 FY2025 $8.35bn)
Operating margin Q4 FY2026
13.1%
(12.8 pts) year on year (Q4 FY2025 25.9%)
Key findings
  • FY2026 revenue $43.12bn, (2.6%); Q4 FY2026 $10.32bn, (8.4%). Q4 revenue is net of a $120m payment to a customer from a legal settlement; non GAAP revenue $10.44bn. Operating margin 13.1% in Q4 against 25.9% and 20.1% for FY2026 against 27.9%. GAAP EPS $12.70 includes a $5.7bn tax benefit; non GAAP EPS $10.54 against $12.03.
  • Handsets fall as Apple moves to its own modems. QCT handsets $24.07bn, (13.4%), and (26.2%) in Q4. The 10-K expects Apple to "primarily" use its own modems; Apple revenue to fall about 50% from the Sep to the Dec 2026 quarter (stated on the call). QTL licensing $5.56bn at a 72.4% EBT margin; licenses renewed with Apple, Huawei and Transsion.
  • Automotive grows +51.7% to $6.00bn, 16.1% of QCT revenue against 10.3%; Q4 $1.99bn, +89.0%, which the 8-K release calls the first $2bn automotive quarter. The 10-K attributes $1.3bn of the FY2026 increase to higher revenue per unit and $712m to more shipments.
  • Data center sits in nonreportable segments with a pretax loss. The 10-K reports Data Center within nonreportable segments (Data Center, QGOV, Modular) had $476m of revenue and a $607m loss before tax in FY2026. Target for FY2027: $5bn (8-K). Amazon holds a warrant for 25m shares tied to up to $60bn of purchases; acquisitions of Alphawave ($2.3bn), Modular ($2.6bn) and eight others ($1.1bn) took goodwill to $16.37bn.
  • Costs rise while revenue falls. Gross margin 53.1% against 55.4%; R&D $10.21bn, +12.9%. Free cash flow $8.65bn against $12.82bn as inventory rose to $8.64bn. Buybacks $7.82bn (48m shares), $19.6bn of authorization left; net debt $7.43bn.
  • Q1 FY2027 guidance $10.4bn to $11.2bn, midpoint (11.9%). Shares traded at $154.50 on 5 Nov 2026 after results, (10.8%) on the 4 Nov close: 12.2x GAAP EPS, which includes the tax benefit, and 14.7x non GAAP EPS. Insiders sold $21.6m and bought none. Scenarios for FY2029: base $169, best $336, worst $64.

Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2022 to FY2026 (FY2026 10-K filed 4 Nov 2026), the Forms 10-Q for Q1 FY2026 to Q3 FY2026, the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the quarterly earnings releases (Ex 99.1), the amended bylaws (Ex 3.2), the Modular registration rights agreement and legal opinion (Ex 4.1, 5.1) and the Forms 8-K on the Amazon warrant, the Modular share issue, director changes and the annual meeting votes, the 2026 proxy statement, the Forms 4 for central index key 804328 and the filings of the competitors used in chapters 2 to 4. Qualcomm files no CFO commentary exhibit: CFO commentary comes from the earnings releases and from the Q1 to Q4 FY2026 earnings calls, and call figures are labelled as stated on the call. Quarters are Qualcomm fiscal quarters; Q4 FY2026 is the quarter to 27 Sep 2026. Accession numbers appear in the Sources appendix. Share price used is the last trade on 5 Nov 2026, after the results release.

1 Revenue & Business Model

  • Storyline: Qualcomm's handset chip revenue falls as memory costs cut phone builds and Apple moves to its own modems, while automotive, IoT and a new data center business, built through acquisitions and an Amazon agreement, take a larger share of revenue. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three drivers: handsets with QTL licensing, automotive, and IoT, AI PCs and data center.
  • Segments. QCT (Qualcomm CDMA Technologies) sells Snapdragon chips for handsets, automotive and IoT; QTL licenses the patent portfolio and collects royalties; QSI holds strategic investments. Data Center, QGOV and Modular are nonreportable segments through FY2026; Data Center moves into QCT from Q1 FY2027. Qualcomm is fabless: TSMC, Samsung and GlobalFoundries make its chips.
  • FY2026 revenue mix: handsets $24.07bn (55.8% of revenue), automotive $6.00bn, IoT $7.13bn, QTL $5.56bn, nonreportable $476m. Handsets were 64.7% of QCT revenue against 72.4% in FY2025.
  • Profit sits in QCT and QTL: QCT EBT $10.10bn, a 27.1% margin against 30.4%; QTL EBT $4.02bn at 72.4%; QSI EBT $794m from investment gains.
  • Revenue FY2022 $44.20bn to FY2026 $43.12bn; FY2024 had 53 weeks and FY2025 and FY2026 52.
  • Regions FY2026 (customer headquarters): China incl. Hong Kong $18.08bn (41.9%), United States $10.79bn, South Korea $9.47bn, other $4.78bn. The two largest customers were 22% and 20% of revenue.
Figure 1.1 Revenue and operating margin, FY2022 to FY2026
Figure 1.2 Revenue by segment and QCT revenue stream, FY2021 to FY2026 ($bn)
Figure 1.3 Revenue by region (customer headquarters), share
Table 1.1 Revenue and EBT by segment and QCT revenue stream, FY2021 to FY2026 ($bn)
LineFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026
QCT handsets ($bn)20.4828.8222.5724.8627.7924.07
QCT automotive ($bn)1.111.511.872.913.966.00
QCT IoT ($bn)5.437.355.945.426.627.13
QCT total ($bn)27.0237.6830.3833.2038.3737.21
QTL licensing ($bn)6.326.365.315.575.585.56
Nonreportable segments: Data Center, QGOV, Modular ($bn)0.130.130.140.180.190.48
QSI and unallocated revenue ($bn)0.100.03(0.01)0.020.14(0.12)
Total revenue ($bn)33.5744.2035.8238.9644.2843.12
QCT EBT ($bn)7.7612.847.929.5311.6710.10
QCT EBT margin (%)28.734.126.128.730.427.1
QTL EBT ($bn)4.634.633.634.034.044.02
QTL EBT margin (%)73.272.868.472.372.472.4
QSI EBT ($bn)0.92(0.28)(0.01)0.100.180.79
EBT is earnings before income taxes as reported by segment; it excludes stock based compensation, certain R&D and SG&A, interest and unallocated items. FY2026 unallocated revenue is a $120m customer payment from a legal settlement; FY2025 includes a $143m licensing item.
Table 1.2 Segment revenue and EBT, last five quarters ($bn)
LineQ4 FY2025Q1 FY2026Q2 FY2026Q3 FY2026Q4 FY2026
QCT handsets ($bn)6.967.826.025.095.14
QCT automotive ($bn)1.051.101.331.591.99
QCT IoT ($bn)1.811.691.731.831.89
QCT total ($bn)9.8210.619.088.509.02
QTL licensing ($bn)1.411.591.381.281.30
Other and unallocated ($bn)0.040.050.140.170.00
QCT EBT ($bn)2.903.302.472.192.14
QCT EBT margin (%)29.531.127.225.823.8
QTL EBT ($bn)1.021.230.990.880.92
QTL EBT margin (%)72.077.371.968.970.4
Q4 FY2026 from the 8-K Ex 99.1 of 4 Nov 2026. Other and unallocated is total revenue less QCT and QTL.

2 Handsets and QTL Licensing: Memory Costs and the Apple Modem Exit

  • QCT handsets $24.07bn in FY2026, (13.4%); Q4 FY2026 $5.14bn, (26.2%), after (19.6%) in Q3 and (13.1%) in Q2. Q1 FY2026 handsets were $7.82bn. Handsets fell to 64.7% of QCT revenue from 72.4%.
  • Memory costs: the 10-K attributes lower handset shipments to OEMs cutting builds on memory constraints; the CEO cited industry wide memory supply constraints in the Feb 2026 release. Qualcomm raised its own prices to pass on higher input costs, with the full benefit in QCT gross margins expected in H2 FY2027 (8-K Ex 99.1).
  • Apple modem exit: the 10-K expects Apple to "primarily" use its own internally developed modem products going forward, against "increasingly" a year earlier. Apple revenue is not disclosed. Stated on the calls: modem share in the next iPhone well below 20%, Apple revenue down about 50% from the Sep to the Dec 2026 quarter and below $2bn in FY2027; handsets down by a mid single digit % in Q1 FY2027 on the prior quarter.
  • China and Samsung: China incl. Hong Kong 42% of FY2026 revenue against 46%; Chinese customers' handset revenue was expected to bottom in Q3 FY2026 (8-K Ex 99.1, Apr 2026). The CEO put Qualcomm's share of Samsung premium devices at over 70% (stated on the Q2 FY2026 call).
  • QCT EBT margin 23.8% in Q4 FY2026 against 29.5%, and 27.1% for FY2026 against 30.4%; Q1 FY2027 guided at 20% to 22% (stated on the call).
Figure 2.1 QCT handsets revenue and QCT EBT margin by quarter

How the smartphone market is changing

  • Memory takes a larger share of phone cost: Micron Mobile and Client revenue was $13.1bn in its quarter to 3 Sep 2026 against $3.8bn a year earlier, at a 90% gross margin against 36% (Micron 8-K Ex 99.1). Qualcomm planned for flat to lower handset units in calendar 2027 (stated on the call).
  • Phone makers design their own chips: Apple ships its own C1 and C1X modems; Apple iPhone net sales rose 17.5% to $57.58bn in its Sep 2026 quarter (Apple 8-K Ex 99.1) while Qualcomm handset revenue fell 26.2%. The 10-K names Samsung and Xiaomi as customers with their own chips.
  • RF and royalty peers: Skyworks standalone revenue (5.0%) and NXP Mobile (4.4%) in the Sep 2026 quarter; Arm royalties +8.1%, partly offset by memory pricing on smartphones (Arm 6-K).
  • MediaTek, the other large Android chip supplier, does not file with the SEC and is not compared here.
Figure 2.2 Smartphone related revenue growth by company
Figure 2.3 QCT revenue by stream as share of QCT
Table 2.1 Smartphone businesses compared
Company and linePeriodRevenueGrowth (%)Margin (%)Filed detail
Qualcomm: QCT handsets revenueQ4 FY2026 (Sep 2026)$5.14bn(26.2)23.8QCT EBT margin; FY2026 $24.07bn, (13.4%)
Qualcomm: QTL licensing revenueQ4 FY2026 (Sep 2026)$1.30bn(7.5)70.4QTL EBT margin; FY2026 $5.56bn
Apple: iPhone net salesSep 2026 quarter (Q4 FY2026)$57.58bn17.5not statedFY2026 iPhone net sales $254.10bn (21.2%); uses its own C1 and C1X modems in some models; segment margin not disclosed
Arm: Royalty revenueSep 2026 quarter$670.0m8.113.9margin shown is company GAAP operating margin; royalty growth partly offset by memory pricing on the smartphone market
Skyworks: Net revenueSep 2026 quarter (ended 2 Oct 2026)$1.05bn(5.0)2.1GAAP operating margin; Qorvo combination completed; Dec 2026 quarter combined guide $1.80bn to $1.90bn with smartphone revenue down low teens sequentially
NXP: Mobile revenueQ3 2026 (ended 27 Sep 2026)$411.0m(4.4)not stated11% of NXP revenue; segment margin not disclosed
Qualcomm margins are QCT and QTL EBT margins; Arm and Skyworks margins are company GAAP operating margins. Apple and NXP report no margin for these lines.

QTL licensing

  • QTL revenue $5.56bn in FY2026, (0.5%), EBT $4.02bn, a 72.4% margin. Q4 FY2026 $1.30bn, (7.5%), EBT margin 70.4%. QTL revenue ranged from $5.31bn to $6.36bn a year from FY2021 to FY2026.
  • Renewals: long term licenses renewed with Apple, Huawei and Transsion (8-K Ex 99.1, 4 Nov 2026); key OEM licenses now run to between FY2030 and FY2033 (10-K). Royalty rates were held in these renewals (stated on the call).
  • Royalties follow handset sales: QTL revenue depends on licensees' device sales, so lower phone units also reduce royalties.
Figure 2.4 QTL revenue and EBT margin by quarter

3 Automotive: Revenue up 52% in FY2026 and 89% in Q4

  • QCT automotive $6.00bn in FY2026, +51.7%; Q4 FY2026 $1.99bn, +89.0%, which the 8-K release calls the first $2bn automotive quarter. Growth year on year rose from +14.6% in Q1 FY2026 to +38.3% in Q2, +61.4% in Q3 and +89.0% in Q4.
  • Sources of growth (10-K FY2026): about $1.3bn from higher revenue per unit (mix and average selling prices) and $712m from higher shipments, mainly new vehicle launches with Snapdragon digital cockpit and ADAS. Automotive was 16.1% of QCT revenue against 4.0% in FY2022.
  • Revenue since FY2021: $1.11bn in FY2021 to $6.00bn in FY2026, a 40.2% CAGR.
  • Stated on the calls: exit run rate about $8bn after Q4 FY2026; fifth generation Snapdragon Digital Chassis in commercial shipments; BMW expanded its agreement for next generation ADAS and cockpit; automotive and IoT together about flat in Q1 FY2027 on the prior quarter.
  • Margin: Qualcomm reports no automotive margin; the stream sits within QCT EBT.
Figure 3.1 QCT automotive revenue by quarter

How the automotive chip market is changing

  • Content per car grows faster than car output: Mobileye estimates global vehicle production fell about 1% in the first nine months of 2026 while its EyeQ volumes rose 11% (Mobileye 8-K Ex 99.1); Qualcomm's growth came mostly from revenue per unit (10-K).
  • Connectivity and driver assistance: the 10-K cites a third party forecast of 51% of new vehicles with 5G in 2030 against 27% in 2026, and of Level 2 or higher autonomy rising from 24% of new light vehicles in 2025 to 58% in 2030.
  • Software defined vehicles: NXP Automotive revenue $2.07bn, +12.7%, in Q3 2026, and NXP names software defined vehicles as a source of demand for its next generation products (NXP 8-K Ex 99.1); Arm physical AI royalties +50% on ADAS and infotainment (Arm 6-K).
  • Peer comparison: Qualcomm automotive revenue of $1.99bn in Q4 FY2026 against NXP Automotive ($2.07bn) and four times Mobileye ($492m, (2.0%)).
Figure 3.2 Automotive and embedded revenue growth by company
Table 3.1 Automotive and embedded businesses compared
Company and linePeriodRevenueGrowth (%)Margin (%)Filed detail
Qualcomm: QCT automotive revenueQ4 FY2026 (Sep 2026)$1.99bn89.023.8QCT EBT margin; FY2026 $6.00bn, +51.7%
NXP: Automotive revenueQ3 2026 (ended 27 Sep 2026)$2.07bn12.732.4margin shown is company GAAP operating margin; 55% of NXP revenue; Q4 2026 total revenue guide $3.75bn to $3.95bn
Mobileye: RevenueSep 2026 quarter (ended 26 Sep 2026)$492.0m(2.0)(17.0)GAAP operating margin; adjusted operating margin 18%; FY2026 revenue outlook $2.00bn to $2.02bn (5% to 7% growth)
AMD: Embedded segment revenueQ3 2026$1.11bn29.440.8segment operating margin; includes automotive, industrial and communications
Texas Instruments: RevenueQ3 2026$6.06bn27.7not statedno automotive revenue line; CEO cites growth in industrial, automotive and data center; Q4 guide $5.80bn to $6.30bn
Qualcomm margin is the QCT EBT margin; NXP and Mobileye margins are company GAAP operating margins; AMD margin is its Embedded segment margin. Texas Instruments reports no automotive line.

4 IoT, AI PCs and Data Center: Amazon Warrant and a $5bn FY2027 Target

  • QCT IoT $7.13bn in FY2026, +7.8%; Q4 FY2026 $1.89bn, +4.5%. IoT covers PC (Snapdragon X), XR, industrial and networking chips; PC revenue is not reported separately. The CEO targeted about 150 Snapdragon X PC designs in 2026 (stated on the Q1 FY2026 call).
  • Data center reports within nonreportable segments, together with QGOV and Modular: revenue $476m in FY2026 against $192m, with a loss before tax of $607m against $39m. The 10-K attributes $235m of the increase to Data Center, mainly Alphawave.
  • Targets: FY2027 Data Center revenue $5bn (8-K Ex 99.1, Nov 2026) and FY2029 non handset revenue $40bn (8-K Ex 99.1, Jul 2026). From Q1 FY2027 Data Center reports within QCT, which adds about 3 points of pressure on the Q1 QCT EBT margin (stated on the call).
  • Amazon: warrant for up to 25m shares at $161.26 vesting with purchases of up to $60bn (8-K 8 Sep 2026), recorded as a reduction of revenue; multi generation AI data center product collaboration (8-K Ex 99.1, Nov 2026). Custom accelerators for Amazon began shipping in Oct 2026 (stated on the call).
  • Acquisitions for data center and AI software: Alphawave ($2.3bn, Dec 2025), Modular ($2.6bn, AI software, Jul 2026) and eight others ($1.1bn), with Alphawave and Modular goodwill of about $4.3bn assigned to Data Center; goodwill $11.36bn to $16.37bn.
Figure 4.1 QCT IoT revenue by quarter
Figure 4.2 Nonreportable segment revenue and EBT and the FY2027 Data Center target

How the data center and PC markets are changing

  • Custom accelerators grow fastest: Broadcom AI semiconductor revenue $16.7bn, +221%, and NVIDIA Data Center $89.0bn, +117%, both in Jul 2026 quarters, the latest filed by 5 Nov 2026; AMD Data Center $8.55bn, +96.9%, and Intel DCAI $7.32bn, +77.8%, in Q3 2026 (Forms 8-K).
  • Arm based server chips: Arm data center royalties doubled year on year in its Sep 2026 quarter and Arm put Arm based server share at the top hyperscalers above 50% in calendar 2025 against 15% in 2024 (Arm 6-K).
  • Hyperscalers buy with equity attached: Amazon received a warrant for up to 25m Qualcomm shares against up to $60bn of purchases; the 10-K adds that data center buyers are a few hyperscalers with long qualification cycles, and names custom silicon providers as competitors.
  • PC demand falls on memory costs: Intel client revenue (CCPG) (5.1%) in Q3 2026 (Intel 8-K); Qualcomm IoT, which includes Snapdragon X PCs, +4.5% in Q4 FY2026.
  • Scale: Qualcomm's FY2027 Data Center target of $5bn equals about 6% of NVIDIA Data Center revenue in a single Jul 2026 quarter.
Figure 4.3 Data center, IoT and PC revenue growth by company
Table 4.1 Data center, IoT and PC businesses compared
Company and linePeriodRevenueGrowth (%)Margin (%)Filed detail
Qualcomm: QCT IoT revenueQ4 FY2026 (Sep 2026)$1.89bn4.523.8QCT EBT margin; FY2026 $7.13bn, +7.8%
Qualcomm: nonreportable segments (Data Center, QGOV, Modular)FY2026$476m147.9(127.5)EBT ($607m) against ($39m); Data Center alone not disclosed
NVIDIA: Data Center revenueJul 2026 quarter$89.00bn117.066.2margin shown is company GAAP operating margin
Broadcom: AI semiconductor revenueJul 2026 quarter (ended 2 Aug 2026)$16.70bn221.053.9custom accelerators for hyperscalers; margin shown is company GAAP operating margin
AMD: Data Center segment revenueQ3 2026$8.55bn96.933.7segment operating margin
Intel: DCAI revenueQ3 2026$7.32bn77.841.5segment operating margin
Intel: CCPG revenue (client PCs)Q3 2026$8.10bn(5.1)28.2AI PC comparison for Snapdragon X
Arm: Total revenueSep 2026 quarter$1.44bn27.113.9GAAP operating margin; license and other $773m (50%); data center royalties doubled, value not disclosed
NXP: Industrial & IoT revenueQ3 2026 (ended 27 Sep 2026)$802.0m38.5not statedcommunication infrastructure and other $503m (54%) on data center infrastructure
Qualcomm IoT margin is the QCT EBT margin; nonreportable margin is EBT over revenue. NVIDIA, Broadcom and Arm margins are company GAAP operating margins; AMD and Intel margins are segment margins.

5 Financial Analysis & Ratios

  • Operating margin 20.1% in FY2026 against 27.9% in FY2025 and 35.9% in FY2022; Q4 FY2026 13.1% against 25.9%. Non GAAP operating income $13.24bn against GAAP $8.66bn; the gap is mainly stock based compensation ($3.45bn), acquisition items ($435m) and restructuring ($343m).
  • Net income $13.63bn on EBT of $9.41bn: a tax benefit of $4.21bn after the $5.7bn release of the valuation allowance set up in Q4 FY2025. FY2025 net income was $5.54bn after the charge.
  • Cash flow FY2026: operating cash flow $11.15bn against $14.01bn, capital expenditure $2.49bn against $1.19bn, free cash flow $8.65bn, a 20.1% margin. Capital returned $11.67bn: buybacks $7.82bn and dividends $3.85bn ($3.62 per share).
  • Balance sheet at 27 Sep 2026: cash and marketable securities $7.68bn against $12.48bn (incl. $2.32bn restricted for Alphawave); debt $15.11bn, of which $2.0bn of notes mature in 2027; net debt $7.43bn; inventory $8.64bn; goodwill $16.37bn; equity $30.40bn. The $4.0bn revolver to Aug 2029 is undrawn.
  • Market value $165.3bn at $154.50 on 1.07bn shares (2 Nov 2026); enterprise value $172.7bn.
Table 5.1 Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet summary ($bn unless stated)
Line itemFY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026
Revenue44.235.839.044.343.1
Gross profit25.620.021.924.522.9
Research and development8.28.88.99.010.2
Selling, general and administrative2.62.52.83.13.7
Operating income15.97.810.112.48.7
Net income12.97.210.15.513.6
Diluted EPS ($)11.376.428.975.0112.70
Operating cash flow9.111.312.214.011.1
Capital expenditure(2.3)(1.5)(1.0)(1.2)(2.5)
Free cash flow6.89.811.212.88.7
Stock based compensation2.02.52.62.83.5
Cash and investments6.411.313.312.57.7
Total debt15.515.414.614.815.1
Total equity18.021.626.321.230.4
Fiscal years end late September; FY2024 had 53 weeks. FY2026 equals the trailing twelve months. FY2025 cash and investments include $2.32bn of cash restricted for the Alphawave consideration.
Figure 5.1 Quarterly revenue and margins
Table 5.2 What changed, Q4 FY2026 against Q4 FY2025
MetricQ4 FY2025Q4 FY2026Change
Revenue ($bn)11.2710.32(8.4%)
Gross profit ($bn)6.245.24(16.0%)
Operating income ($bn)2.921.36(53.5%)
Net income ($bn)(3.12)1.25n/a
Diluted EPS ($)(2.89)1.17n/a
Operating cash flow ($bn)4.002.74(31.4%)
Free cash flow ($bn)3.591.82(49.2%)
Operating margin (%)25.913.1(12.8 pts)
Net margin (%)(27.7)12.139.8 pts
Table 5.3 Ratio analysis
RatioFY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026
Growth and margins
Revenue growth (%)n/a(19.0)8.813.7(2.6)
Gross margin (%)57.855.756.255.453.1
Operating margin (%)35.921.725.827.920.1
Net margin (%)29.320.226.012.531.6
FCF margin (%)15.527.528.628.920.1
Cost and investment intensity
R&D (%) revenue18.524.622.820.423.7
SBC (%) revenue4.66.96.86.38.0
Capex (%) revenue5.14.02.72.75.8
Effective tax rate (%)13.41.42.256.2(44.8)
Returns
ROE (%)71.836.542.423.352.8
ROA (%)26.414.519.110.524.6
ROIC (%)50.629.935.743.018.8
Asset turnover (x)0.900.700.710.880.71
Liquidity and leverage
Current ratio (x)1.752.332.402.821.86
Debt to equity (x)0.860.710.560.700.50
Net cash ($bn)(9.1)(4.1)(1.3)(2.3)(7.4)
Efficiency and cash quality
Days sales outstanding4732373636
Inventory days124148137121156
FCF to net income (x)0.531.361.102.310.63
Shareholder returns (%) FCF93657098135
ROE and ROA use average balances. FY2022 revenue growth against FY2021 ($33.57bn) was +31.7%. The FY2025 and FY2026 tax rates reflect the $5.7bn valuation allowance charge and release.
Figure 5.2 Margin profile
Figure 5.3 Operating cash flow, capital expenditure and free cash flow
Table 5.4 Valuation snapshot at $154.50 per share, last trade on 5 Nov 2026 after results
MeasureValue
Market cap ($bn)165.3
Enterprise value ($bn)172.7
P/E on FY2026 GAAP EPS, incl. tax benefit (x)12.2
P/E on FY2026 non GAAP EPS (x)14.7
EV/Sales (FY2026) (x)4.0
EV/EBITDA (FY2026) (x)16.8
FCF yield (%)5.2
Dividend yield, Q4 dividend annualized (%)2.4
Price/Book (x)5.4

Cost structure and profitability

  • Cost of revenues 49.3% of Q4 FY2026 revenue against 44.7% a year earlier; gross margin 50.7% against 55.3%, as wafer, packaging, test and memory costs rose and the $120m settlement payment reduced revenue.
  • R&D $2.68bn, 26.0% of revenue against 21.0%; SG&A $963m, 9.3% against 8.1%. Revenue (8.4%) and costs (revenue less operating income) +7.3% in Q4.
  • FY2026 cost growth: cost of revenues +2.5%, R&D +12.9%, SG&A +19.0%, against revenue (2.6%); stock based compensation $3.45bn against $2.78bn, 8.0% of revenue.
  • Operating income $8.66bn, down $3.70bn: QCT EBT fell $1.57bn, nonreportable segments lost $607m and restructuring of $332m sits in the Other line.
  • Cash conversion: free cash flow $8.65bn, 63% of net income, which includes the non cash tax benefit; capital expenditure $2.49bn after $1.19bn, with Q4 FY2026 alone $916m.
Figure 5.4 Costs as % of revenue by quarter
Figure 5.5 Operating cash flow, capital expenditure and free cash flow by quarter
Figure 5.6 GAAP and non GAAP diluted EPS by quarter
Figure 5.7 Buybacks, dividends and free cash flow by quarter
Table 5.5 Costs as % of revenue, last five quarters
LineQ4 FY2025Q1 FY2026Q2 FY2026Q3 FY2026Q4 FY2026
Cost of revenues (% of revenue)44.745.446.246.949.3
Research and development (% of revenue)21.020.023.226.226.0
Selling, general and administrative (% of revenue)8.17.18.59.89.3
Stock based compensation (% of revenue)5.97.28.18.38.5
Operating income (% of revenue)25.927.521.816.313.1
Capital expenditure (% of revenue)3.64.55.05.08.9
Gross margin (%)55.354.653.853.150.7
Cost of revenues is revenue less gross profit. Stock based compensation is spread across cost and expense lines.
Table 5.6 Operating income to net income, FY2025 and FY2026 ($bn)
LineFY2025FY2026
Operating income12.368.66
Interest expense(0.66)(0.69)
Investment and other income, net0.971.45
Earnings before taxes12.669.41
Income tax (expense) benefit(7.12)4.21
Net income5.5413.63
Effective tax rate (%)56(45%)
Tax is a $5.7bn charge in FY2025 and a benefit in FY2026 from the valuation allowance on federal deferred tax assets.
Table 5.7 GAAP and non GAAP results, FY2026
LineGAAPNon GAAP
Revenue ($bn)43.1243.24
Operating income ($bn)8.6613.24
Earnings before taxes ($bn)9.4112.98
Net income ($bn)13.6311.31
Diluted EPS ($)12.7010.54
Non GAAP excludes QSI, stock based compensation ($3.45bn), acquisition items ($435m), restructuring ($343m), the settlement payment and tax items; company measures from the 8-K Ex 99.1.

6 MD&A & Management Commentary

Q4 FY2026 and FY2026 results release and earnings call

  • Q4 FY2026 (8-K Ex 99.1, 4 Nov 2026): revenue $10.32bn, (8.4%), against guidance of $9.7bn to $10.5bn; non GAAP revenue $10.44bn excludes the $120m settlement payment. EBT $1.17bn, (60.5%), after $235m of restructuring; GAAP EPS $1.17 against ($2.89); non GAAP EPS $2.17 against $3.00.
  • Q4 segments: QCT $9.02bn, (8.2%), EBT margin 23.8% against 29.5%; handsets $5.14bn, (26.2%); automotive $1.99bn, +89.0%; IoT $1.89bn, +4.5%; automotive and IoT together +35.6%. QTL $1.30bn, (7.5%), EBT margin 70.4%.
  • FY2026: revenue $43.12bn, (2.6%); QCT $37.21bn, (3.0%); QTL $5.56bn; GAAP EPS $12.70 incl. $5.32 per share of tax benefit; non GAAP EPS $10.54, (12%).
  • MD&A (10-K FY2026): QCT revenue fell on lower handset shipments as OEMs cut builds on memory constraints; R&D rose $1.17bn incl. $428m higher stock based compensation, part of it a two year equity award that replaced FY2026 and FY2027 cash bonuses for non executive leaders; restructuring $332m, mostly severance; inventory up to secure supply.
  • Stated on the Q4 FY2026 call (4 Nov 2026): automotive exit run rate about $8bn; custom accelerators for Amazon, one of two hyperscaler customers, began shipping in Oct 2026; China Android revenue grew on the prior quarter in the Sep 2026 quarter; global handset units planned flat to lower in calendar 2027.
  • Stated on the Q3 FY2026 call (29 Jul 2026): Qualcomm modem share in the next iPhone well below the earlier 20% assumption; Apple revenue down about 50% from the Sep to the Dec 2026 quarter; double digit price increases across products; custom data center chips carry 1.5 to 2 points of QCT gross margin pressure.
Table 6.1 Outlook as filed or stated on the calls, incl. every FY2026 revision
ItemOutlookSource
Q1 FY2027 revenue$10.4bn to $11.2bn; midpoint (11.9%) against Q1 FY2026 $12.25bn8-K Ex 99.1, 4 Nov 2026
Q1 FY2027 segment revenueQCT $9.0bn to $9.6bn, which includes Data Center from Q1 FY2027; QTL $1.3bn to $1.5bn8-K Ex 99.1, 4 Nov 2026
Q1 FY2027 EPSGAAP $1.03 to $1.23; non GAAP $2.15 to $2.35, excluding stock based compensation of $0.99 and other items of $0.13 per share8-K Ex 99.1, 4 Nov 2026
FY2027 non handset revenue and Data Centernon handset revenue projected to grow more than 60%; FY2027 Data Center revenue target of $5bn reiterated8-K Ex 99.1, 4 Nov 2026 (CEO)
Pricing and gross marginprice increases for higher wafer, packaging, test and memory costs; full benefit in QCT gross margins expected in H2 FY20278-K Ex 99.1, 4 Nov 2026
Q1 FY2027 margins and expensesQCT EBT margin 20% to 22%, incl. about 3 points from moving Data Center into QCT; QTL EBT margin 72% to 76%; non GAAP operating expenses about $2.8bnstated on the Q4 FY2026 call
Q1 FY2027 handsetsQCT handset revenue down by a mid single digit % on Q4 FY2026, as Apple revenue falls and Android growsstated on the Q4 FY2026 call
Capital expenditureexpected to rise in the near term from the FY2026 level of $2.5bn10-K FY2026, Item 7
FY2029 non handset revenue target$40bn, nearly double the target set in Nov 2024; non handset growth to rise from 24% in FY2026 to more than 60% in FY20278-K Ex 99.1, 29 Jul 2026
Apple product revenueApr 2026: FY2027 just over $2bn; Jul 2026: down about 50% from the Sep to the Dec 2026 quarter and below $2bn in FY2027stated on the Q2 and Q3 FY2026 calls
Quarterly revenue guidance against resultsQ1 FY2026: $11.8bn to $12.6bn, actual $12.25bn; Q2: $10.2bn to $11.0bn, actual $10.60bn; Q3: $9.2bn to $10.0bn, actual $9.95bn; Q4: $9.7bn to $10.5bn, actual $10.32bn GAAP and $10.44bn non GAAP8-K Ex 99.1 releases
Quarterly non GAAP EPS guidance against resultsQ1 FY2026: $3.30 to $3.50, actual $3.50; Q2: $2.45 to $2.65, actual $2.65; Q3: $2.10 to $2.30, actual $2.21; Q4: $2.05 to $2.25, actual $2.178-K Ex 99.1 releases

Management and CFO commentary

  • CEO Cristiano Amon, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 4 Nov 2026: Q4 non GAAP revenue at the high end of guidance; automotive and IoT together +36%; FY2027 marks the start of non handset growth incl. the Data Center ramp; non handset revenue projected to grow more than 60% in FY2027.
  • CEO, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 29 Jul 2026: FY2029 non handset revenue target of $40bn, nearly double the Nov 2024 target; non handset growth to rise from 24% in FY2026 to more than 60% in FY2027.
  • CEO, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 29 Apr 2026 and 4 Feb 2026: a leading hyperscaler custom silicon engagement on track for first shipments in calendar 2026; near term handset outlook affected by industry wide memory supply constraints.
  • CFO Akash Palkhiwala, stated on the Q4 FY2026 call: Q1 FY2027 QCT EBT margin 20% to 22% with Data Center inside QCT; FY2027 Data Center exit run rate about $7bn; price increases start to help gross margin in Q2 FY2027; QTL royalty rates held in the renewals; Q4 capital return $2.0bn.
  • CFO, stated on the Q3 FY2026 call: calendar 2026 handset market down by low teens %, mostly in lower tiers; QCT Android revenue down about 20%, an EPS effect above $1.50; two hyperscaler custom silicon wins with revenue from the Dec 2026 quarter.
  • CFO, stated on the Q1 and Q2 FY2026 calls: QCT EBT margin of 31% in Q1 FY2026, above the 30% long term target; China Android shipments below end demand as OEMs drew down inventory, with a bottom expected in Q3 FY2026.
Table 6.2 Management statements in their own words
SpeakerDate and sourceStatement
Cristiano Amon, President and CEO4 Nov 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“we are reiterating our fiscal 2027 Data Center revenue target of $5B”
Cristiano Amon, President and CEO29 Apr 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“the rise of AI agents is reshaping our roadmap across every platform we develop”
Cristiano Amon, President and CEO5 Nov 2025, 8-K Ex 99.1“our expansion to data centers and advanced robotics”
Table 6.3 Key disclosures in the FY2026 Form 10-K and the Forms 10-Q
ItemDisclosure
10-K FY2026, customersApple and Samsung each above 10% of revenue; the largest customer 22% and the second 20%. License terms with key OEMs expire between FY2030 and FY2033 after renewals incl. Apple.
10-K FY2026, AppleQualcomm expects Apple to primarily use its own internally developed modem products in its devices going forward; offsetting the loss depends on growth in automotive, IoT and data center.
10-K FY2026, automotiveAutomotive revenue up $2.05bn: about $1.3bn from higher revenue per unit and $712m from higher shipments, mainly new vehicle launches with Snapdragon digital cockpit and ADAS.
10-K FY2026, segmentsNonreportable segments revenue $476m against $192m, of which $235m higher Data Center revenue, mainly Alphawave; EBT ($607m) against ($39m). Data Center moves into QCT from Q1 FY2027.
10-K FY2026, acquisitionsAlphawave closed 18 Dec 2025: $2.27bn ($1.8bn in about 11m shares, $301m cash), goodwill $2.14bn. Modular closed 28 Jul 2026: $2.62bn in 17.8m shares, goodwill $2.14bn, plus $342m of share based retention pay. Eight other acquisitions $1.1bn.
10-K FY2026, Amazon warrant25m shares at $161.26, 10 year term, fair value $1.8bn ($71.57 per share); about 4m vested at issue (3.75m per the 8-K of 8 Sep 2026); recorded as a reduction of revenue as related revenue is recognized.
10-K FY2026, taxThe $5.7bn valuation allowance of FY2025 (tax law changes and expected corporate alternative minimum tax) reversed in Q2 FY2026 after Treasury Notice 2026 07; final $663m installment of the 2018 repatriation tax paid.
10-K FY2026, liquidityPurchase obligations $18.6bn, $13.8bn due within 12 months; advance payments under capacity agreements fell from $1.9bn to $750m; $5.0bn of interest rate swaps convert part of the fixed rate debt to floating.
10-K FY2026, legalArm v. Qualcomm: judgment for Qualcomm, appeal heard 21 Oct 2026, ruling pending. Qualcomm v. Arm: jury found on 13 Oct 2026 that Arm breached the Qualcomm architecture license agreement; bench trial issues pending. No accrual recorded.
10-Q Q3 FY2026Quarter to 28 Jun 2026: revenue $9.95bn, operating income $1.63bn against $2.76bn; 9M capital expenditure $1.58bn against $0.79bn; 9M buybacks $6.81bn.

7 Peer Valuation & Sector Summary

  • Sector: chips for smartphones, cars, IoT devices, PCs and data centers, plus wireless patent licensing. Qualcomm FY2026 revenue $43.1bn against Broadcom $89.1bn (TTM to Aug 2026), Intel $59.9bn, AMD $45.4bn, NXP $13.8bn and Marvell $9.5bn (TTM to Aug 2026).
  • Growth (latest quarter): AVGO 85.5%, AMD 44.7%, MRVL 36.5%, INTC 20.9%, NXPI 19.3%, QCOM (8.4%).
  • Operating margin TTM: AVGO 48.0%, NXPI 33.0%, QCOM 20.1%, AMD 17.7%, MRVL 16.5%, INTC 2.9%; Qualcomm non GAAP 30.6%.
  • Valuation: Qualcomm 4.0x EV/Sales and 12.2x GAAP EPS (14.7x non GAAP) against NXPI 5.2x and 20.4x, AVGO 17.4x and 40.4x, AMD 16.6x and 100.7x, MRVL 14.3x and 50.5x.
Table 7.1 Peer comparison, latest reported trailing twelve months
CompanyRevenue TTM ($bn)Revenue growth (%)Gross margin (%)Operating margin (%)Net margin (%)FCF margin (%)ROE (%)Net cash ($bn)Market value ($bn)EV/Sales (x)P/E TTM (x)
QCOM43.1(8.4)53.120.131.620.152.8(7.4)1654.012.2
AVGO89.185.568.848.042.944.244.2(35.4)1,51117.440.4
AMD45.444.753.717.716.815.511.88.776116.6100.7
MRVL9.536.552.216.527.918.316.5(1.0)13414.350.5
NXPI13.819.356.433.023.425.426.7(7.0)655.220.4
INTC59.920.939.92.9(20.1)2.7(10.9)3.93015.0n/a
QCOM FY2026 to 27 Sep 2026, growth Q4 FY2026, net income incl. the $5.7bn tax benefit (P/E on non GAAP EPS 14.7x); AVGO TTM to 2 Aug 2026 (Jul 2026 quarter), MRVL TTM to 1 Aug 2026, both a quarter behind as their Oct 2026 quarters were not filed by 5 Nov 2026; AMD TTM to 26 Sep 2026; NXPI TTM to 27 Sep 2026; INTC TTM to 26 Sep 2026, P/E not shown as TTM EPS is negative. MRVL net margin includes a divestiture gain. Prices are trades on 5 Nov 2026.
Figure 7.1 Revenue growth versus operating margin, peer set

8 Material Events & Contracts

  • 12 Forms 8-K in twelve months: five earnings releases, the bylaw amendment, two director departures, the annual meeting results, the Modular agreement and the resale registration of its shares, and the Amazon warrant.
  • Shares as deal currency: Alphawave about 11m shares plus $301m cash; Modular 17.8m shares; Amazon warrant for up to 25m shares (2.3%). Total acquisition prices in FY2026 $6.0bn; cash paid for acquisitions and investments $1.58bn.
  • Buybacks: 48m shares for $7.82bn at an average $161.96 in FY2026, against 56m for $8.79bn in FY2025; Q4 FY2026 6m shares for $1.01bn. A $20bn program with no expiry was announced on 17 Mar 2026; $19.6bn remains.
Table 8.1 Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
DateItemsEvent
5 Nov 20252.02, 9.01Q4 and FY2025 results (Ex 99.1): FY2025 revenue $44.28bn, +14%; GAAP EPS $5.01 after a $5.7bn non cash charge for a valuation allowance on federal deferred tax assets ($5.29 per share); non GAAP EPS $12.03; Q1 FY2026 guidance $11.8bn to $12.6bn.
10 Dec 20255.03, 9.01Bylaws amended on 9 Dec 2025 (Ex 3.2): holders of at least 25% net long ownership for one year may call a special meeting.
16 Dec 20255.02Director Kornelis (Neil) Smit to retire from the board at the 2026 annual meeting.
16 Jan 20265.02Director Christopher D. Young informed the board on 13 Jan 2026 that he will step down at the 2026 annual meeting, citing the time required by his role as CEO and director of Vertex, Inc.
4 Feb 20262.02, 9.01Q1 FY2026 results (Ex 99.1): record revenue $12.25bn, +5%; GAAP EPS $2.78, non GAAP $3.50; Alphawave acquisition completed on 18 Dec 2025.
19 Mar 20265.07Annual meeting of 17 Mar 2026: 11 directors elected; say on pay approved; 24m more shares for the 2023 Long Term Incentive Plan; shareholder proposals on special meetings and a China exposure report rejected.
29 Apr 20262.02, 9.01Q2 FY2026 results (Ex 99.1): revenue $10.60bn, (3%); GAAP EPS $6.88 incl. a $5.7bn tax benefit ($5.33 per share) from the valuation allowance release; non GAAP EPS $2.65; new $20bn buyback authorization.
24 Jun 20263.02Agreement of 21 Jun 2026 to acquire Modular Inc for up to 19.2m Qualcomm shares in a private placement.
29 Jul 20262.02, 9.01Q3 FY2026 results (Ex 99.1): revenue $9.95bn, (4%); automotive $1.59bn, +61%; Q4 guidance $9.7bn to $10.5bn; FY2029 non handset revenue target $40bn.
31 Jul 20268.01, 9.01Resale registration of 17,826,566 shares issued for Modular, closed 28 Jul 2026 (Ex 4.1 registration rights agreement, Ex 5.1 legal opinion).
8 Sep 20263.02Warrant issued on 3 Sep 2026 to an Amazon affiliate for up to 25m shares at $161.26, vesting with purchases of up to $60bn of server chip products and services; 3.75m vested at issue; expires 3 Sep 2036.
4 Nov 20262.02, 9.01Q4 and FY2026 results (Ex 99.1): FY2026 revenue $43.12bn, (2.6%); GAAP EPS $12.70, non GAAP $10.54; Q4 revenue $10.32bn, (8.4%); QTL licenses renewed with Apple, Huawei and Transsion; product collaboration with Amazon for AI data centers; Q1 FY2027 guidance $10.4bn to $11.2bn.
Table 8.2 Material contracts and financing arrangements
ContractTerms
Amazon warrant (8-K 8 Sep 2026; 10-K Note 4)Up to 25m shares at $161.26, vesting as an Amazon affiliate buys up to $60bn of server chip products and services; 3.75m vested at issue; expires 3 Sep 2036; fair value $1.8bn, recorded against revenue as related revenue is recognized.
Modular merger and registration rights (8-K 24 Jun and 31 Jul 2026, Ex 4.1, 5.1)Up to 19.2m shares agreed; 17,826,566 shares issued at closing on 28 Jul 2026 and registered for resale; $342m of share based retention compensation.
Alphawave acquisition (closed 18 Dec 2025)Accounting price $2.27bn: $1.8bn in about 11m shares incl. exchangeable shares, $301m cash; $278m of convertible debt assumed; goodwill $2.14bn to Data Center.
QTL license renewals (8-K Ex 99.1, 4 Nov 2026)Long term licenses renewed with Apple, Huawei and Transsion; terms confidential; key OEM licenses run to between FY2030 and FY2033 (10-K).
Share repurchase program$20bn announced 17 Mar 2026, no expiry; $19.6bn remaining at 27 Sep 2026; the $15bn program of Nov 2024 was used up.
Debt and credit facilities (10-K FY2026)Debt $15.11bn incl. $499m of commercial paper and $2.0bn of notes due 2027; all term debt fixed rate with $5.0bn of swaps to floating; $4.0bn revolving credit facility to Aug 2029, undrawn.
Bylaws (Ex 3.2, effective 9 Dec 2025)Holders of at least 25% net long ownership held for one year may call a special meeting; proxy access for groups of up to 20 holders, nominees capped at the greater of two or 20% of the board.

9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

  • One class of common stock, one vote per share, no controlling holder. Vanguard held 10.53% and BlackRock 8.71% (Schedules 13G/A as cited in the 2026 proxy statement); directors and executive officers held 573,776 shares, under 1%.
  • Potential new holder: the Amazon warrant covers up to 25m shares, 2.3% of shares outstanding, of which 3.75m vested at issue.
  • 2026 annual meeting (17 Mar 2026; 8-K Item 5.07 of 19 Mar 2026): all 11 director nominees elected; Ann Livermore drew 53.2m and Irene Rosenfeld 54.7m votes withheld; say on pay 91.8% of votes cast; 24m more shares for the 2023 Long Term Incentive Plan; annual say on pay frequency chosen; the shareholder proposal for a special meeting right and the proposal for a China exposure report rejected.
  • Insiders, 12 months: no open market purchases; open market sales of $21.6m by six insiders under trading plans, incl. $7.60m by CEO Cristiano Amon and $7.24m by CFO Akash Palkhiwala.
Table 9.1 Annual meeting vote results, 17 Mar 2026
ProposalFor (bn votes)Against (bn votes)Abstain (bn votes)For as % of votes castResult
1. Elect director Sylvia Acevedo0.7380.0120.00298.4Elected
1. Elect director Cristiano R. Amon0.7470.0030.00199.6Elected
1. Elect director Mark Fields0.7470.0030.00199.6Elected
1. Elect director Jeffrey W. Henderson0.7130.0380.00195.0Elected
1. Elect director Jeremy (Zico) Kolter0.7450.0060.00199.2Elected
1. Elect director Ann M. Livermore0.6970.0530.00292.9Elected
1. Elect director Mark D. McLaughlin0.7420.0090.00198.8Elected
1. Elect director Jamie S. Miller0.7480.0030.00199.6Elected
1. Elect director Marie Myers0.7470.0030.00199.6Elected
1. Elect director Irene B. Rosenfeld0.6960.0550.00192.7Elected
1. Elect director Jean‑Pascal Tricoire0.7460.0050.00199.3Elected
2. Ratify PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP for FY20260.8370.0720.00292.1Approved
3. Advisory vote on executive compensation0.6860.0620.00491.8Approved
4. Frequency of say on pay: one year against two or three years0.7380.0120.00298.3One year
5. Amended 2023 Long Term Incentive Plan (24m more shares)0.7000.0480.00393.6Approved
6. Shareholder: ability to call special meeting0.3160.4330.00342.2Rejected
7. Shareholder: report on risk of China exposure0.0220.7220.0073.0Rejected
For director elections the Against column shows votes withheld. Broker non votes 159.3m on each item except the auditor ratification. For the frequency vote, the For column is one year and the Against column adds two and three years.

Board changes and governance

  • Director departures: Kornelis (Neil) Smit retired at the 2026 annual meeting (8-K 16 Dec 2025); Christopher D. Young stepped down at the 2026 annual meeting, citing the time required by his role as CEO of Vertex, Inc., as he told the board on 13 Jan 2026 (8-K 16 Jan 2026).
  • Bylaw amendment of 9 Dec 2025 (8-K 10 Dec 2025, Ex 3.2): a special meeting right for holders of at least 25% held for one year, adopted before the 2026 meeting, where a shareholder proposal for a lower threshold received 42.2% of votes cast.
Table 9.2 Large holders and potential holders
HolderShares (m)% of sharesSource
The Vanguard Group111.910.53Schedule 13G/A as cited in the 2026 proxy statement
BlackRock92.68.71Schedule 13G/A as cited in the 2026 proxy statement
Directors and executive officers as a group0.6under 1Proxy statement, holdings at 15 Dec 2025
Amazon affiliate (warrant)up to 252.348-K 8 Sep 2026; 3.75m vested at issue; exercise price $161.26
Warrant percentage uses 1.07bn shares outstanding at 2 Nov 2026. 13F holdings and Schedule 13G history were not read.
Table 9.3 Insider open market sales, last twelve months
InsiderTransactions
Cristiano Amon, President and CEO40,000 shares sold for $7.60m in four sales at $180 to $200 per share (May and Sep 2026)
Akash Palkhiwala, CFO and COO42,537 shares sold for $7.24m
Alexander Rogers15,917 shares sold for $2.83m
Heather Ace11,200 shares sold for $1.75m
Ann Chaplin9,007 shares sold for $1.60m
Patricia Grech3,537 shares sold for $0.60m
Forms 4 filed 5 Nov 2025 to 5 Nov 2026; all sales reported under trading plans. Other transactions are tax withholding and award vesting. No open market purchases.

10 Risk Factors

  • FY2026 Form 10-K: 25 risk factors and 18,378 words against 24 and 18,535 in the FY2025 10-K: 1 added, on AI focus and investment, 0 removed and 8 reworded.
  • Wording changes: Apple moves from "increasingly" to "primarily" using its own modems; data center is mentioned 25 times against 2; the Huawei passages and the named competitor list were dropped; Arm is named as a supplier that competes with its licensees.
Table 10.1 Main risks named in the filings, with filed figures
RiskDisclosure and change
Apple modem exit and customer concentration10-K FY2026: Qualcomm expects Apple to "primarily" use its own modem products in its devices going forward, with a negative impact on QCT revenue, results and cash flows (FY2025 wording: "increasingly"). The two largest customers were 22% and 20% of FY2026 revenue; Apple and Samsung each exceeded 10%.
China and vertical integrationChina incl. Hong Kong $18.08bn, 42% of FY2026 revenue by customer headquarters, against 46%. Samsung and Xiaomi have their own chips; Chinese OEMs have policy incentives to use domestic chips. The Huawei license revocation passage was removed.
Memory and input costsOEMs cut handset builds on memory supply and pricing in FY2026; Qualcomm raised prices to pass on higher wafer, packaging, test and memory costs. Inventory $8.64bn at 27 Sep 2026 against $6.53bn; purchase obligations $18.6bn, $13.8bn of them due within 12 months.
Data center executionNew risk factor on returns from AI investment. Nonreportable segments lost $607m before tax on $476m of revenue in FY2026; Data Center buyers are a few hyperscalers with long qualification cycles. The Amazon warrant ($1.8bn fair value) is recorded as a reduction of revenue as related revenue is recognized.
Arm licenses and litigationArm is named as a supplier that now competes with its licensees. Arm appeal of the Sep 2025 judgment for Qualcomm heard by the Third Circuit on 21 Oct 2026, ruling pending; in Qualcomm v. Arm a jury found on 13 Oct 2026 that Arm breached the Qualcomm architecture license agreement. No accrual recorded.
Licensing renewalsQTL licenses with key OEMs now run to between FY2030 and FY2033 after renewals incl. Apple, Huawei and Transsion; licensing depends on renewing expiring agreements.
Acquisitions and goodwillGoodwill $16.37bn at 27 Sep 2026 against $11.36bn, after Alphawave, Modular and eight smaller acquisitions; Data Center goodwill from Alphawave and Modular about $4.3bn.
TaxA $5.7bn valuation allowance on federal deferred tax assets was set up in Q4 FY2025 and released in Q2 FY2026 after Treasury Notice 2026 07; effective tax rate (45%) in FY2026 against 56% in FY2025. The OECD Pillar Two paragraph was removed from the tax risk factor.

How risk factors changed

  • Comparison: 10-K FY2026 (year ended 27 Sep 2026) filed 4 Nov 2026 acc 0000804328-26-000128 against 10-K FY2025 (year ended 28 Sep 2025) filed 5 Nov 2025 acc 0000804328-25-000085.
  • AI is mentioned 37 times across 10 risk factors in the FY2026 10-K against 14 times in 7 factors a year earlier, including a new standalone AI factor.
  • Data center appears 23 times in 7 factors against 2 times in 2 factors; hyperscalers are named in 4 factors against none.
  • Apple wording moves from 'increasingly' to 'primarily' using its own modems in two factors; Apple and Samsung each exceeded 10% of FY2026 revenue (22% and 20% for the two largest customers).
  • Arm is named 4 times (0 in FY2025) as a supplier of licensed IP that now competes with its licensees.
  • Two sections were renamed or reorganised: 'Operating businesses' became 'Revenue and customer concentration', and 'New initiatives' became 'Diversification and other strategic initiatives'. Huawei references fell from 3 to 0, and the named competitor list was removed.
Figure 10.1 Risk factors by change against the prior filing
Table 10.2 Size of the risk factor section
Measure10-K FY202510-K FY2026
Risk factors (count)2425
Words in Item 1A18,53518,378
Table 10.3 Risk factors added, removed and materially reworded
ChangeRisk factorWhat changed
AddedFocus on AI may not deliver expected benefitsNew factor (341 words) on investments in on device, agentic and infrastructure AI across mobile, automotive, IoT and data center: returns may fall short, AI workloads may shift to competing architectures or cloud, and AI use brings legal, privacy, IP and cybersecurity exposure.
RewordedRevenue from a small number of handset customersHeading now says 'mobile handset customers'; Apple language moves from 'increasingly use its own modem' to 'primarily use its own internally developed modem products', and offsetting that loss is tied to the timing of automotive, IoT and data center growth; adds that new areas may also depend on a few hyperscalers and automakers. Apple MDM mix language is removed.
RewordedCustomers vertically integrating their own chipsNames Samsung and Xiaomi as customers with their own chips and repeats that Apple will primarily use its own modems; Chinese OEMs cited as incentivized by government self sufficiency policy.
RewordedConcentration in China and U.S./China tensionsDrops the May 2024 Huawei export licence revocation passage (Huawei mentions fall from 3 to 0) and adds that Qualcomm sources critical integrated circuit products from Chinese suppliers and could be harmed by limits on Chinese origin content in U.S. products.
RewordedGrowth depends on expansion beyond handsetsHeading now names automotive, IoT and data center; new text on data center buyers (few hyperscalers, long qualification cycles), rivals with larger installed bases and ecosystems, and a shift from silicon to full stack platform solutions; ESG target passage folded into a short parenthetical.
RewordedRevenue depends on device sales and new platformsHeading adds 'increasingly' on demand for automotive, IoT and data center platform solutions; adds reliance on cloud providers, hyperscalers and automakers and a new trigger where supply constraints raise device prices and cut consumer demand.
RewordedIntense competition in the semiconductor industryHeading changes 'Our industry' to 'The semiconductor industry'; the named competitor list (Broadcom, HiSilicon, MediaTek, Mobileye, Nvidia, NXP, Qorvo, Samsung, Skyworks, Texas Instruments, UNISOC) and the ASP reduction paragraphs are removed; customer concentration in handsets and data center is added as a competitive factor.
RewordedDependence on limited third party suppliers and IPHeading adds dependence 'for certain intellectual property'; new text says Arm has become a chip supplier competing with its licensees and that access to Arm's latest technology on acceptable terms 'has been and may continue to be impacted'; adds direct procurement of memory and substrates and AI and data center demand as drivers of supplier cost increases.
RewordedTax liabilitiesRemoves the OECD Pillar Two 15% minimum tax paragraph and the onshoring FDDEI example; adds that changes in business model and customer mix could reduce FDDEI deduction benefits.
Table 10.4 Risk factor updates in quarterly reports since the annual filing
FilingChange disclosed
10-Q Q1 FY2026 (Dec 2025 quarter) filed 4 Feb 2026Full Item 1A reprinted (19,638 words); text matches the FY2025 10-K apart from formatting, with no new risk factor.
10-Q Q2 FY2026 (Mar 2026 quarter) filed 29 Apr 2026Adds one sentence to the China factor: limits on obtaining critical chips or manufacturing, assembly or test services from Chinese suppliers, or on selling U.S. products with Chinese origin content, could harm results.
10-Q Q3 FY2026 (Jun 2026 quarter) filed 29 Jul 2026Item 1A text identical to the Q2 FY2026 10-Q; no change.

11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

  • Last trade $154.50 on 5 Nov 2026, the session after the 4 Nov results release, (10.8%) on the 4 Nov close of $173.19, 40.3% below the 52 week high of $258.95 and above the 52 week low of $121.52.
  • Valuation: 12.2x FY2026 GAAP EPS of $12.70, which includes the $5.7bn tax benefit, and 14.7x non GAAP EPS of $10.54; 4.0x EV/Sales; free cash flow yield 5.2%; dividend yield 2.4% on the annualized Q4 dividend of $0.92.
  • Reference prices: FY2026 buybacks at an average $161.96; Amazon warrant exercise price $161.26; CEO sales in May and Sep 2026 at $180 to $200.
  • Scenario model: revenue grows for three years from FY2026 $43.12bn to FY2029; GAAP operating margin as stated; 13% tax rate (company non GAAP rate); 1.07bn shares less about 2% a year from buybacks, plus the Amazon warrant shares: all in the best case, half in the base case, none in the worst case; price equals FY2029 EPS times exit P/E.
Figure 11.1 QCOM monthly closing price and three year scenarios

Critical factors and core assumptions

Table 11.1 Critical factors behind the best case
FactorCurrent valueBest case requiresEvidence in filings and calls
Data Center rampNonreportable segments $476m revenue, ($607m) EBT in FY2026$5bn in FY2027 and growth in line with the $40bn FY2029 non handset target8-K Ex 99.1 targets; Amazon warrant tied to up to $60bn of purchases (8-K 8 Sep 2026)
Automotive$6.00bn in FY2026, +51.7%; Q4 $1.99bnGrowth continues as new vehicle launches add content per car10-K FY2026 MD&A; exit run rate about $8bn (stated on the call)
Handsets after Apple$24.07bn in FY2026, (13.4%); Q4 (26.2%)Android revenue stabilizes as memory prices ease10-K Item 1A on Apple modems; China Android growth on the prior quarter (stated on the call)
QCT marginQCT EBT margin 27.1% in FY2026, 23.8% in Q4; Q1 FY2027 20% to 22% (stated on the call)Back to the 30% long term targetPricing benefit in H2 FY2027 (8-K Ex 99.1)
QTL licensing$5.56bn at a 72.4% EBT marginRevenue held through the renewal cycle from FY2030Renewals with Apple, Huawei and Transsion; terms to FY2030 to FY2033 (10-K)
Arm litigationAppeal ruling pending; Oct 2026 jury found Arm breached the Qualcomm architecture license agreementNo limit on Oryon CPU cores used across products10-K FY2026 Note 7
  • Revenue base FY2026 $43.12bn, (2.6%); GAAP operating margin 20.1%, non GAAP 30.6%.
  • Best case: 15.5% revenue CAGR (FY2029 $66.4bn), 30% operating margin, 20x P/E; non handset revenue reaches the $40bn target, handsets about $21bn without Apple; all warrant shares issued.
  • Base case: 8.4% CAGR (FY2029 $54.9bn), 24% margin, 15x P/E; Data Center about $8bn, automotive $12bn, IoT $10bn, handsets $20bn, QTL $5.3bn; half the warrant shares issued.
  • Worst case: (1.0%) CAGR (FY2029 $41.8bn), 16% margin, 11x P/E; Data Center below $3bn as hyperscaler programs slip, handsets $17bn with China share loss, QTL $5.0bn; no warrant shares issued.
  • Tax rate 13% (company non GAAP planning rate after the 2025 US tax law); investment income and interest are not modelled.

Scenarios, three years forward

Table 11.2 Scenario analysis, FY2026 to FY2029
MeasureWorst caseBase caseBest case
Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%)(1.0)8.415.5
Revenue, FY2029 ($bn)41.854.966.4
Operating margin, FY2029 (%)16.024.030.0
Net income, FY2029 ($bn)5.811.517.3
EPS, FY2029 ($)5.7811.2516.79
Exit P/E (x)11.015.020.0
Implied price ($)64169336
Change against $154.50 (%)(59)9117
Implied annual return (%)(25.6)3.029.5
Share count: 1.07bn shares with changes of (3.5%) (best), (4.7%) (base) and (5.9%) (worst): buybacks of about 2% a year, offset by Amazon warrant shares. Sensitivity tables use the base case share count.
Figure 11.2 Three year price scenarios

Sensitivity analysis

Table 11.3 Sensitivity of implied price to revenue CAGR and operating margin at 15x P/E
Revenue CAGR \ Operating margin16%20%24%27%30%
(1%)$86$107$129$145$161
4%$99$124$149$168$186
8%$112$141$169$190$211
12%$124$155$186$209$233
16%$136$170$204$230$255
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Last trade on 5 Nov 2026, after results, $154.50. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below.
Table 11.4 Sensitivity of implied price to exit P/E and operating margin at 8% revenue CAGR
Exit P/E \ Operating margin16%20%24%27%30%
11x$82$103$124$139$155
13x$97$122$146$164$183
15x$112$141$169$190$211
18x$135$169$202$228$253
20x$150$187$225$253$281
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Last trade on 5 Nov 2026, after results, $154.50. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 5 November 2026.

Sources

All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. CEO statements are taken from the earnings releases; CFO statements and figures marked as stated on the call come from the Q1 to Q4 FY2026 earnings calls held by the company and are not in a filing. FY2026 figures are from the FY2026 Form 10-K filed on 4 Nov 2026.

Table A.1 Filings used, with accession numbers
FormPeriodFiledAccession number
10-KFY20264 Nov 20260000804328-26-000128
8-K Ex 99.1Q4 FY20264 Nov 20260000804328-26-000127
10-QQ3 FY202629 Jul 20260000804328-26-000086
8-K Ex 99.1Q3 FY202629 Jul 20260000804328-26-000085
10-QQ2 FY202629 Apr 20260000804328-26-000061
8-K Ex 99.1Q2 FY202629 Apr 20260000804328-26-000060
10-QQ1 FY20264 Feb 20260000804328-26-000017
8-K Ex 99.1Q1 FY20264 Feb 20260000804328-26-000016
10-KFY20255 Nov 20250000804328-25-000085
8-K Ex 99.1Q4 FY20255 Nov 20250000804328-25-000084
10-KFY20246 Nov 20240000804328-24-000075
10-KFY20231 Nov 20230000804328-23-000055
10-KFY20222 Nov 20220000804328-22-000021
8-K3 Sep 20268 Sep 20260001104659-26-105718
8-K31 Jul 202631 Jul 20260001104659-26-089234
8-K21 Jun 202624 Jun 20260001104659-26-077071
8-K Item 5.0717 Mar 202619 Mar 20260000804328-26-000041
8-K Item 5.039 Dec 202510 Dec 20250000804328-25-000096
DEF 14A2026 annual meeting22 Jan 20260001104659-26-005781
Table A.2 Further filings used: Qualcomm Forms 8-K, peers and competitors
CompanyFormFiledAccession number
QualcommForm 8-K, Item 5.0216 Dec 20250000804328-25-000098
QualcommForm 8-K, Item 5.0216 Jan 20260000804328-26-000008
AMDForm 8-K Ex 99.13 Nov 20260000002488-26-000188
AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, NXPForms 10-Q, latest quarter (peer TTM)20260000002488-26-000191; 0001730168-26-000080; 0001835632-26-000025; 0001413447-26-000059
AppleForm 8-K Ex 99.12 Nov 20260000320193-26-000024
ArmForm 6-K Ex 99.24 Nov 20260001973239-26-000141
BroadcomForm 8-K Ex 99.12 Sep 20260001730168-26-000076
IntelForm 8-K Ex 99.129 Oct 20260000050863-26-000188
MicronForm 8-K Ex 99.130 Sep 20260000723125-26-000018
MobileyeForm 8-K Ex 99.129 Oct 20260001104659-26-119830
NVIDIAForm 8-K Ex 99.126 Aug 20260001045810-26-000073
NXPForm 8-K Ex 99.127 Oct 20260001413447-26-000057
SkyworksForm 8-K Ex 99.13 Nov 20260000004127-26-000052
Texas InstrumentsForm 8-K Ex 9921 Oct 20260000097476-26-000165
Table B.1 Exhibits to Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
FiledExhibitDocumentContent
5 Nov 2025Ex 99.1Q4 and FY2025 results release (Sep 2025 quarter)FY2025 GAAP revenue $44.28bn (up 14%), Non GAAP EPS $12.03 (up 18%); GAAP EPS $5.01 (44% lower); Q4 FY2025 revenue $11.27bn (up 10%); GAAP net loss $3.12bn after a $5.7bn non cash charge to set up a valuation allowance on US federal deferred tax assets, linked to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and corporate alternative minimum tax
10 Dec 2025Ex 3.2Amended and Restated Bylaws (effective 9 Dec 2025)Stockholders with at least 25% net long ownership, held continuously for one year, may call a special meeting; Special meeting requests carry informational, timing and other requirements set out in Section 6
4 Feb 2026Ex 99.1Q1 FY2026 results release (Dec 2025 quarter)Record revenue $12.25bn (up 5%); GAAP EPS $2.78, Non GAAP EPS $3.50 (up 3%); QCT revenue $10.61bn (up 5%), EBT margin 31%; QTL $1.59bn (up 4%), EBT margin 77%
29 Apr 2026Ex 99.1Q2 FY2026 results release (Mar 2026 quarter)Revenue $10.60bn (3% lower); GAAP EPS $6.88 including a $5.7bn tax benefit ($5.33 per share) from releasing the valuation allowance; Non GAAP EPS $2.65 (7% lower); QCT revenue $9.08bn (4% lower), EBT margin 27%; QTL $1.38bn (up 5%), EBT margin 72%
29 Jul 2026Ex 99.1Q3 FY2026 results release (Jun 2026 quarter)Revenue $9.95bn (4% lower); GAAP EPS $1.87 (23% lower), Non GAAP EPS $2.21 (20% lower); QCT revenue $8.50bn (5% lower), EBT margin 26%; QTL $1.28bn (3% lower), EBT margin 69%
31 Jul 2026Ex 4.1Registration Rights Agreement for Modular Inc acquisition shares (dated 28 Jul 2026)Agreement between Qualcomm and Shareholder Representative Services LLC as agent for former Modular holders; Qualcomm to file a shelf registration or prospectus supplement within five business days of closing for resale of the issued shares
31 Jul 2026Ex 5.1Legal opinion on Modular resale sharesPaul, Weiss opinion that the 17,826,566 shares are validly issued, fully paid and non assessable; Shares registered under the company shelf registration effective 6 Nov 2024
4 Nov 2026Ex 99.1Q4 and FY2026 results release (Sep 2026 quarter)FY2026 GAAP revenue $43.12bn (3% lower); GAAP EPS $12.70 including a $5.7bn tax benefit; Non GAAP EPS $10.54 (12% lower); Q4 FY2026 revenue $10.32bn (8% lower); GAAP EBT $1.17bn (61% lower) with $235m restructuring and a $120m customer payment from a legal settlement deducted from revenue