November 10, 2026·45 min read

Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB), Financial Analysis

Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.

Revenue Q3 2026

$267.8m

+72.7% year on year (Q3 2025 $155.1m)

Costs and expenses Q3 2026

$347.0m

+62.1% year on year (Q3 2025 $214.0m)

Operating margin Q3 2026 (loss)

(29.6%)

+8.5 pts year on year (Q3 2025 (38.0%))

Key findings

Revenue +72.7% to $267.8m in Q3 2026. Space Systems $214.8m (+88.1%), 80% of revenue; Launch Services $53.1m (+29.7%) from 6 Electron launches against 4. Operating loss $79.2m, incl. $21.3m of transaction costs, mainly for Iridium.
Backlog $3.57bn at 30 Sep 2026, +52% on 30 Jun and up from $1.85bn at FY2025: launch $1.85bn and Space Systems $1.72bn; 33% expected within 12 months. The launch backlog covers 117 launches, 16 of them Neutron.
Neutron first launch moved to 2027. A Stage 1 tank ruptured in a hydrostatic test on 21 Jan 2026; the Q3 2026 10-Q reports voids found in Oct 2026 in a composite propellant tank dome, which require a replacement forward dome. Neutron base price is $70m per launch.
Defense share rising. The largest government customer accounted for 11% of FY2024 revenue, 28% of FY2025 and 42% of 9M 2026. Awards in filings: SDA Tranche 2 $515m, SDA Tranche 3 $816m and Space Force SB‑AMTI $397m.
Iridium acquisition pending at about $8.0bn EV, close expected 2027. About $3.9bn of equity was raised in 2026, the $3.6bn bridge loan ended undrawn ($27.3m extinguishment loss) and Iridium's $1.775bn term loan stays in place. Cash and investments $4.70bn against debt of $3.0m.
Q4 2026 guidance: revenue $270m to $290m, GAAP gross margin 34% to 36%, adjusted EBITDA loss $14m to $20m. Shares traded at $55.19 before the 10 Nov session, after results (9 Nov close $58.86). Insiders sold about $691.3m in 12 months with no purchases; scenario prices in three years $16 to $90.

Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2022, FY2023 and FY2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 2025 to Q3 2026 (the Q3 2026 10-Q filed 9 Nov 2026), the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the quarterly results releases (Ex 99.1), the Iridium merger agreement, investor presentation and pro forma financial information, the 2026 proxy statement, the Item 5.07 vote results of May 2026 and the Forms 4 for central index key 1819994, together with the Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K of the competitors used in chapters 2 to 4 and 7. Rocket Lab files no separate CFO commentary document, so CFO figures come from the results releases; earnings call remarks are left out. Exhibits 1.1, 2.1, 5.1, 10.1 and 23.1 are summarised from the 8-K item text. Accession numbers appear in the Sources appendix.

1 Revenue & Business Model

Storyline: revenue grows with satellite builds and acquisitions, backlog rises with defense awards and Neutron contracts, while operating losses continue and equity funds Neutron and the pending Iridium deal. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the revenue drivers: Launch Services (Electron, HASTE, Neutron); Space Systems; defense and national security.
Business: the FY2025 10-K describes an end to end space company: launch services on Electron and its suborbital HASTE variant, Neutron in development (about 13,000 kg to low Earth orbit, reusable), and spacecraft, components and on orbit management. Launch sites are Launch Complex 1 (Mahia, New Zealand) and Launch Complexes 2 and 3 (Wallops Island, Virginia). Through FY2025 the company delivered more than 200 spacecraft across 75 successful Electron missions.
Reporting: two segments, Launch Services and Space Systems; management reviews segment revenue, cost of revenue and gross profit only, so no segment operating income is filed. Since Q1 2026 all product revenue is Space Systems, which also holds the Mynaric laser communications and Motiv robotics units.
Revenue FY2021 $62.2m to FY2025 $601.8m (+38% in FY2025); TTM Q3 2026 $881.9m; 9M 2026 $702.2m (+66%), 77% from Space Systems.
Regions (customer billing location): United States $475.4m (79%) of FY2025 revenue, Japan $65.6m, Canada $20.2m against $104.4m in FY2024. Quarterly regions are not disclosed.
Employees: over 2,600 full time at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 10-K). Headquarters Long Beach, California; auditor Deloitte & Touche.

Figure 1.1 Revenue and operating margin, FY2022 to TTM Q3 2026

Figure 1.2 Revenue by customer billing location, share of FY revenue

Table 1.1 Segments, launches and backlog, last five quarters

Line	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026
Launch Services revenue ($m)	40.9	75.9	63.7	44.6	53.1
Launch Services gross margin (%)	58.1	47.5	44.3	42.9	35.3
Space Systems revenue ($m)	114.2	103.8	136.7	189.5	214.8
Space Systems gross margin (%)	29.4	31.0	35.3	34.6	33.2
Total revenue ($m)	155.1	179.7	200.3	234.1	267.8
Revenue growth year on year (%)	n/a	n/a	63.5	62.0	72.7
Electron launches, incl. HASTE	4	7	6	6	6
Launch backlog ($m)	509.7	475.6	921.4	940.2	1.85bn
Space Systems backlog ($m)	586.3	1.37bn	1.30bn	1.42bn	1.72bn
Total backlog ($m)	1.10bn	1.85bn	2.22bn	2.36bn	3.57bn

Q4 2025 equals FY2025 less 9M 2025. Segment gross margin is segment gross profit over segment revenue. Backlog is remaining performance obligations; the split comes from the MD&A.

2 Launch Services: Electron, HASTE and the Neutron Backlog

Launch Services revenue $53.1m in Q3 2026, +29.7%, from 6 Electron launches against 4; segment gross margin 35.3% against 58.1% in Q3 2025, which included a $13.3m cumulative catch up on a HASTE contract. 9M 2026 launch revenue $161.3m.
Launch backlog $1.85bn at 30 Sep 2026, +97% on the $940.2m of 30 Jun; the release cites nearly $1bn of launch contracts signed in Q3 2026, 117 launches in backlog and more than $515m of Neutron contracts.
Electron: 21 launches in FY2025 against 16 in FY2024, and 18 in 9M 2026; about 17 vehicles built in 9M 2026. The Q3 2026 10-Q names Electron the second most frequently launched orbital rocket in 2025.
Launch economics: revenue per launch $7.8m in Q3 2026 against $10.1m; cost per launch $5.0m against $5.9m; FY2025 $8.5m and $4.8m (company measures).
HASTE and Space Force: a $266m Space Force contract for 12 suborbital launches plus up to 6 options (Jul 2026); the GHOST deployable launch system, with a first site at Launch Complex 4 in Kodiak, Alaska (Q2 2026 release).
Neutron: about 13,000 kg to low Earth orbit, reusable, from Launch Complex 3 at Wallops. First launch timing: after pad arrival in Q1 2026 (release of Nov 2025), Q4 2026 (Feb 2026, after the tank rupture) and 2027 (Oct 2026, after the dome voids). Base price $70m; 16 missions in backlog.

How the launch market is changing

SpaceX (10-Q Q3 2026): 35 launches in Q3 2026 against 44 a year earlier, 12 of them for customers; launch services revenue $1.13bn against $1.00bn; Space segment revenue $1.77bn at an operating loss of $7m.
Firefly (8-K Ex 99.1, 11 Aug 2026): extension with Lockheed Martin for up to 25 Alpha launches through 2031; launch revenue $9.4m in Q2 2026.
Pricing: Rocket Lab raised the Neutron base price to $70m for several Q3 2026 contracts and reports 16 Neutron missions in backlog before the first flight (release of 9 Nov 2026).

Figure 2.1 Launch Services revenue and segment gross margin

Figure 2.2 Launch backlog and Electron launches

Figure 2.3 Electron revenue and cost per launch

Figure 2.4 Quarterly launch revenue against SpaceX and Firefly

Table 2.1 Launch providers compared ($m unless stated)

Company and line	Period	Filed detail	Revenue	Growth (%)	Margin (%)
Rocket Lab Launch Services	Q3 2026	launch backlog $1.85bn, 117 launches; 6 Electron launches	53.1	29.7	35.3
SpaceX Space segment	Q3 2026	launch services revenue $1.13bn against $1.00bn; 12 customer launches; 35 launches in total against 44	1.77bn	6.1	(0.4)
Firefly Aerospace launch	Q2 2026	company backlog about $1.5bn at 30 Jun 2026; single segment, no launch margin filed	9.4	48.1	n/a

Rocket Lab margin is segment gross margin; SpaceX margin is segment operating margin; Firefly reports one segment. Firefly had not filed Q3 2026 results by 10 Nov 2026.

3 Space Systems: Spacecraft, Components and Constellation Builds

Space Systems revenue $214.8m in Q3 2026, +88.1%, 80% of revenue; segment gross margin 33.2% against 29.4%. Product revenue, all in Space Systems, $197.5m.
Acquisitions add revenue: Mynaric (laser terminals) contributed $26.0m of Q3 2026 revenue at an operating loss of $13.7m, Motiv $5.9m at an operating profit of $1.2m; GEOST was bought for $292.1m in Aug 2025. Pro forma 9M 2026 revenue incl. all three: $723.7m.
Space Systems backlog $1.72bn at 30 Sep 2026 against $586.3m a year earlier; $470m of Space Systems contracts signed in Q3 2026 and more than 55 spacecraft in build.
Builds named in releases: 12 Rocket Lab built spacecraft launched in Q3 2026, incl. 8 platforms for Globalstar; more than $160m across two contracts for three geostationary satellites (Q2 2026); Mynaric terminals supply the SDA satellites.
Iridium (pending): 66 operational satellites plus 14 spares in orbit, global L band spectrum and more than 2.55m subscribers; Iridium TTM revenue to Q3 2026 $903.0m with operating income of $171.6m. Pro forma H1 2026 combined revenue $878.7m (8-K Ex 99.3).

How the spacecraft market is changing

York (8-K Ex 99.1, 13 Aug 2026): completed SDA Tranche 1 Transport Layer deliveries with 42 of 42 satellites in orbit; pipeline above $11.5bn.
Intuitive Machines (8-K Ex 99.1, 13 Aug 2026): $920m of awards in Q2 2026, incl. a contract above $600m for three commercial geostationary satellites; backlog $1.8bn.
Planet Labs (8-K Ex 99.1, 3 Sep 2026): revenue $116.1m in the Jul 2026 quarter, +58%, with backlog of $814.9m.
Vertical integration: Rocket Lab bought Mynaric and Motiv to bring supply constrained components in house (10-Q Q3 2026); AST SpaceMobile builds its own BlueBird satellites (10-Q Q3 2026).

Figure 3.1 Space Systems revenue and segment gross margin

Figure 3.3 Quarterly revenue against spacecraft companies

Table 3.1 Spacecraft and space systems companies compared ($m unless stated)

Company and line	Period	Filed detail	Revenue	Growth (%)	Gross margin (%)
Rocket Lab Space Systems	Q3 2026	Space Systems backlog $1.72bn; more than 55 spacecraft in build	214.8	88.1	33.2
Intuitive Machines	Q2 2026	backlog $1.8bn; national security 30% of revenue against 3%	206.2	309.8	17.4
Planet Labs	Jul 2026 quarter	backlog $814.9m; data and satellite services	116.1	58.0	57.0
Firefly Spacecraft Solutions	Q2 2026	company gross margin; sixth lunar delivery mission awarded at $144m	108.3	1,077.0	20.3
York Space Systems	Q2 2026	backlog $592.0m; FY2026 revenue guidance lowered	92.5	10.4	24.0
Redwire Space segment	Q3 2026	Space backlog $379.6m; book to bill 1.96	61.3	31.6	n/a
AST SpaceMobile	Q3 2026	constellation operator building its own BlueBird satellites	42.3	187.1	n/a

Rocket Lab margin is segment gross margin; Intuitive Machines margin excludes depreciation and amortization; Firefly margin is company level. Firefly, Intuitive Machines and York at Q2 2026; Planet Labs fiscal year ends January.

4 Defense and National Security: SDA, Space Force and Golden Dome

Largest government customer 11% of FY2024 revenue, 28% of FY2025 and 42% of 9M 2026, about $294.9m in 9M 2026 (derived). Defense is not a reported segment; its revenue sits in both segments.
SDA: Transport Layer Beta Tranche 2, $515m for 18 satellites; Tracking Layer Tranche 3, $816m for 18 missile warning and tracking satellites ($806m base plus $10.45m options), awarded 19 Dec 2025, which the release calls the company's largest single contract to date; SDA awards together above $1.3bn.
Space Force: SB‑AMTI spacecraft $397m incl. options, to launch on Neutron (contract of 30 Jul 2026); suborbital launch contract $266m (21 Jul 2026); geostationary satellites more than $160m.
Golden Dome and missile defense: selected for the Space Based Interceptor program with Raytheon and a MACH‑TB hypersonic test contract (Q1 2026 release); selected for the Missile Defense Agency SHIELD vehicle with a $151bn ceiling (Q4 2025 release). Values for Rocket Lab are not disclosed.
GEOST (electro optical and infrared payloads, $292.1m, Aug 2025) adds sensor payloads for missile warning satellites.

How defense space demand is changing

Intuitive Machines (8-K Ex 99.1, 13 Aug 2026): award in Jul 2026 for 18 spacecraft for Accelerated Missile Defense Tranche 3, a Golden Dome constellation.
Firefly (8-K Ex 99.1, 11 Aug 2026): a second hypersonic task order for Alpha and a $94m Space Force radar digitization contract.
Voyager and Redwire (10-Q Q3 2026): Voyager Defense and Space Technologies segment sales +121.5% with 92.2% of funded backlog from the US government; Redwire Defense Tech backlog $240.1m against $111.4m at Dec 2025.
Primes (8-K Ex 99, Oct 2026): Lockheed Martin Space sales +3.8% with flat segment operating profit; Northrop Grumman Space Systems +1.9% with 9M 2026 segment operating income down 9%.
Funding risk (FY2025 10-K): the US government shutdown from 1 Oct 2025 delayed contract awards, payments and export licences and cut staff at the Wallops launch site.

Figure 4.1 Revenue share of the largest government customer

Figure 4.2 US defense contracts disclosed in filings

Figure 4.3 Quarterly revenue of defense space businesses

Table 4.1 Defense space businesses compared ($m unless stated)

Company and line	Period	Filed detail	Revenue	Growth (%)	Margin (%)
Rocket Lab, largest government customer (derived)	9M 2026	42% of 9M 2026 revenue against 29% in 9M 2025; share times revenue	294.9	140.9	n/a
Lockheed Martin Space	Sep 2026 quarter	segment operating profit $331m, flat year on year	3.49bn	3.8	9.5
Northrop Grumman Space Systems	Q3 2026	segment operating income $312m; 9M 2026 segment operating income (9%)	2.75bn	1.9	11.3
York Space Systems	Q2 2026	mainly US national security; potential value on awarded contracts $1.85bn	92.5	10.4	24.0
Voyager Defense and Space Technologies	Q3 2026	US government $78.6m of segment sales; 92.2% of funded backlog from US government	88.8	121.5	n/a
Redwire Defense Tech	Q3 2026	Defense Tech backlog $240.1m against $111.4m at Dec 2025	47.8	(16.0)	n/a

Rocket Lab figure derived as the disclosed share times total revenue. Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman margins are segment operating margins; York margin is gross margin. York at Q2 2026.

5 Financial Analysis & Ratios

Operating margin (64%) in FY2022, (38%) in FY2025 and (28%) TTM. Operating loss TTM $243.7m on revenue of $881.9m; GAAP gross margin 36.2% TTM and 33.6% in Q3 2026 against 37.0% a year earlier.
Net loss TTM $226.9m. Interest income rose to $28.6m in Q3 2026 from $6.7m on higher cash balances; Q3 2025 net loss of $18.3m included a $41.1m tax benefit from GEOST deferred tax liabilities.
Free cash flow TTM ($325.6m) (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment); Q3 2026 operating cash flow +$7.2m, the first positive quarter in the series, with $94.0m of net customer advances (contract liabilities $423.6m).
Balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026: cash and investments $4.70bn (FY2025 $1.10bn); debt $3.0m (convertible notes $1.3m, other $1.7m) against $154.1m at FY2025; goodwill $301.4m; total equity $5.80bn; accumulated deficit $1.19bn.
Capital returns: no dividends and no buyback program; the FY2021 figure of $30.4m is a repurchase of management shares and options at the 2021 SPAC merger.

Table 5.1 Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet summary ($bn unless stated)

Line item	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM Q3 2026
Revenue	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.9
Gross profit	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3
Research and development	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.3
Selling, general and administrative	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2
Operating income	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)
Net income	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)	(0.2)
Diluted EPS ($)	(0.56)	(0.29)	(0.38)	(0.38)	(0.37)	(0.36)
Operating cash flow	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.1)	0.0	(0.2)	(0.2)
Capital expenditure	0.0	0.0	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)
Free cash flow	(0.1)	(0.1)	(0.2)	(0.1)	(0.3)	(0.3)
Stock based compensation	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
Cash and investments	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.5	1.1	4.7
Total debt	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.2	0.0
Total equity	0.7	0.7	0.6	0.4	1.7	5.8

Capital expenditure is purchases of property and equipment. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capex. TTM equals Q4 2025 plus Q1 to Q3 2026; TTM balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026. Total debt excludes leases; convertible notes at carrying value.

Figure 5.1 Quarterly revenue and margins

Table 5.2 What changed, Q3 2026 against Q3 2025

Metric	Q3 2025	Q3 2026	Change
Revenue ($bn)	0.16	0.27	72.7%
Gross profit ($bn)	0.06	0.09	57.2%
Operating income ($bn)	(0.06)	(0.08)	(34.3%)
Net income ($bn)	(0.02)	(0.08)	(336.4%)
Diluted EPS ($)	(0.03)	(0.12)	(300.0%)
Operating cash flow ($bn)	(0.02)	0.01	n/a
Free cash flow ($bn)	(0.07)	(0.02)	65.6%
Operating margin (%)	(38.0)	(29.6)	8.5 pts
Net margin (%)	(11.8)	(29.7)	(18.0 pts)

Table 5.3 Ratio analysis

Ratio	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM Q3 2026
Growth and margins
Revenue growth (%)	n/a	239.0	15.9	78.3	38.0	n/a
Gross margin (%)	(3.0)	9.0	21.0	26.6	34.4	36.2
Operating margin (%)	(164.0)	(64.1)	(72.7)	(43.5)	(38.0)	(27.6)
Net margin (%)	(188.5)	(64.4)	(74.6)	(43.6)	(32.9)	(25.7)
FCF margin (%)	(156.6)	(70.6)	(62.8)	(26.6)	(53.5)	(36.9)
Cost and investment intensity
R&D (%) revenue	67.1	30.9	48.7	40.0	45.0	38.6
SBC (%) revenue	52.3	26.4	21.9	13.0	11.8	9.5
Capex (%) revenue	41.3	20.1	22.4	15.4	26.0	15.2
Returns
Asset turnover (x)	0.06	0.21	0.26	0.37	0.26	0.13
Liquidity and leverage
Current ratio (x)	8.04	4.06	2.13	2.04	4.08	8.55
Debt to equity (x)	0.14	0.15	0.19	1.05	0.09	0.00
Net cash ($bn)	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.9	4.7
Efficiency and cash quality
Days sales outstanding	82	63	52	30	24	49
Inventory days	273	175	204	136	147	182

ROE, ROA, ROIC and the tax rate are left out: losses are reported in every year shown, and FY2025 and Q3 2025 include tax benefits from acquired deferred tax liabilities.

Figure 5.3 Operating cash flow, capital expenditure and free cash flow

Table 5.4 Valuation snapshot at $55.19 per share, pre market price of 10 Nov 2026 after results

Measure	Value
Market cap ($bn)	37.5
Enterprise value ($bn)	32.8
EV/Sales (TTM) (x)	37.2
FCF yield (%)	(0.9)
Price/Book (x)	6.5

Cost structure and profitability

Costs (revenue less operating income) $347.0m in Q3 2026, +62.1%, against revenue +72.7%; costs equal 130% of revenue against 138% a year earlier.
Cost of revenue $177.8m, 66.4% of revenue against 63.0%; GAAP gross margin 33.6% after 36.1% in Q2 2026, with satellite platform programs in the mix.
R&D $98.4m (+39%), SG&A $70.9m (+55%); SG&A includes $21.3m of transaction costs, of which $9.4m for the Iridium credit agreement amendment. Q1 2026 SG&A includes an $11.2m stock compensation charge from cancelled CEO RSUs.
Stock based compensation $18.3m in Q3 2026 and $84.2m TTM, 10% of TTM revenue; depreciation and amortization $21.7m against $11.7m after the acquisitions.
Operating cash flow +$7.2m and capex $31.1m in Q3 2026; free cash flow ($23.9m) against ($69.4m) a year earlier and ($110.1m) in Q2 2026.

Figure 5.4 Costs by line against revenue

Figure 5.5 Cash and marketable securities by period

Table 5.5 Costs by line, last five quarters

Line	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026
Cost of revenue ($m)	97.8	111.4	123.9	149.5	177.8
Research and development ($m)	70.7	78.8	80.5	82.4	98.4
Selling, general and administrative ($m)	45.6	40.5	51.9	59.7	70.9
Costs, revenue less operating income ($m)	214.0	230.7	256.3	291.6	347.0
Costs as % of revenue	138	128	128	125	130
Stock based compensation, in lines above ($m)	15.7	18.2	28.1	19.6	18.3
Depreciation and amortization, in lines above ($m)	11.7	14.7	15.0	20.9	21.7

Table 5.6 Operating loss to net loss, Q3 2026 ($m)

Line	Q3 2026
Operating loss	(79.2)
Interest income	28.6
Loss on extinguishment of debt (Iridium bridge commitment)	(27.3)
Other items and income tax, net (derived)	(1.9)
Net loss	(79.7)

Other items and income tax are derived as net loss less the lines above. The extinguishment loss reflects fees and costs on the $3.6bn bridge commitment for Iridium.

Guidance track

Revenue landed within or above the guided range in each of the last four quarters: Q4 2025 $179.7m against $170m to $180m, Q1 2026 $200.3m against $185m to $200m, Q2 2026 $234.1m against $225m to $240m and Q3 2026 $267.8m against $250m to $265m.
Q4 2026 guidance $270m to $290m, +1% to +8% on Q3 2026; GAAP operating expenses $162m to $168m; interest income about $45m; stock compensation $17m to $19m.

Figure 5.6 Quarterly revenue guidance against actual revenue

6 MD&A & Management Commentary

Q3 2026 results release and 10-Q MD&A

Q3 2026 (8-K Ex 99.1 of 9 Nov 2026): revenue $267.8m, +72.7% year on year and +14.4% on Q2 2026; GAAP gross margin 33.6% (non GAAP 38.4%); net loss $79.7m; adjusted EBITDA loss $18.0m (company measure).
Against guidance from 10 Aug 2026: revenue $250m to $265m (actual $267.8m), GAAP gross margin 29% to 31% (actual 33.6%), adjusted EBITDA loss $17m to $23m (actual $18.0m), GAAP operating expenses $143m to $149m (actual $169.3m, incl. $21.3m of transaction costs, of which $9.4m for the Iridium credit agreement amendment).
Below operating income: a $27.3m loss on extinguishment of debt from fees and costs on the $3.6bn Iridium bridge commitment, which was never drawn and ended on 15 Sep 2026; interest income $28.6m.
Orders in the release: nearly $1bn of new launch contracts and $470m of Space Systems contracts signed in Q3 2026; more than $515m of Neutron contracts; 12 spacecraft built by Rocket Lab launched in Q3 2026, 8 of them for Globalstar; more than 55 spacecraft in build.
Q4 2026 guidance: revenue $270m to $290m, which implies FY2026 revenue of $972.2m to $992.2m with 9M 2026 at $702.2m (derived); basic weighted shares 681m incl. about 41m Series A preferred.
Neutron (10-Q MD&A): a more specific launch timeline will follow first stage tank assembly and hydrostatic and cryogenic tests.

Table 6.1 Q4 2026 guidance as filed and the guidance track of the past four quarters

Item	Outlook	Source
Q4 2026 revenue	$270m to $290m	8-K Ex 99.1, 9 Nov 2026
Q4 2026 GAAP gross margin	34% to 36%	8-K Ex 99.1, 9 Nov 2026
Q4 2026 non GAAP gross margin	39% to 41%	8-K Ex 99.1, 9 Nov 2026
Q4 2026 GAAP operating expenses	$162m to $168m	8-K Ex 99.1, 9 Nov 2026
Q4 2026 non GAAP operating expenses	$136m to $142m	8-K Ex 99.1, 9 Nov 2026
Q4 2026 interest income, net	$45m	8-K Ex 99.1, 9 Nov 2026
Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA	loss of $14m to $20m	8-K Ex 99.1, 9 Nov 2026
Q4 2026 basic weighted average shares	681m including about 41m Series A preferred	8-K Ex 99.1, 9 Nov 2026
Q4 2026 stock based compensation	$17m to $19m	8-K Ex 99.1, 9 Nov 2026
Implied FY2026 revenue	$972m to $992m (9M 2026 actual $702.2m plus Q4 guidance; derived)	derived
Neutron first launch	2027 (no earlier than 2027); more specific timeline after first stage tank and test campaigns	10-Q Q3 2026 MD&A; 8-K 14 Oct 2026
Iridium closing	expected 2027 (mid 2027 per 15 Sep 2026 release)	10-Q Q3 2026; 8-K 15 Sep 2026
Prior guidance track: Q3 2026	revenue $250m to $265m (actual $267.8m); GAAP gross margin 29% to 31% (actual 33.6%); adjusted EBITDA loss $17m to $23m (actual loss $18.0m); GAAP opex $143m to $149m (actual $169.3m)	8-K Ex 99.1 10 Aug 2026 against 9 Nov 2026
Prior guidance track: Q2 2026	revenue $225m to $240m (actual $234.1m); GAAP gross margin 33% to 35% (actual 36.1%); adjusted EBITDA loss $20m to $26m (actual loss $8.8m)	8-K Ex 99.1 7 May 2026 against 10 Aug 2026
Prior guidance track: Q1 2026	revenue $185m to $200m (actual $200.3m); GAAP gross margin 34% to 36% (actual 38.2%); adjusted EBITDA loss $21m to $27m (actual loss $11.8m)	8-K Ex 99.1 26 Feb 2026 against 7 May 2026
Prior guidance track: Q4 2025	revenue $170m to $180m (actual $179.7m); GAAP gross margin 37% to 39% (actual 38.0%); adjusted EBITDA loss $23m to $29m (actual loss $17.4m)	8-K Ex 99.1 10 Nov 2025 against 26 Feb 2026

Management and CFO commentary

Q3 2026 release (9 Nov 2026), CEO Peter Beck: revenue $268m, $34m above Q2; backlog $3.57bn; nearly $1bn of backlog from new launch contracts plus $470m for Space Systems.
Iridium release (29 Jun 2026): the deal at about $8.0bn EV adds a satellite services business with recurring revenue; Iridium 2025 revenue $871.7m.
Q2 2026 release (10 Aug 2026): revenue $234m, up 62%; backlog $2.36bn; more than $1bn of launch and Space Systems contracts signed in Q3 2026 to the release date, incl. options.
Q1 2026 release (7 May 2026): revenue above $200m, backlog $2.2bn, liquidity above $2bn; Space Based Interceptor selection with Raytheon; Motiv agreement signed.
Q4 2025 release (26 Feb 2026): FY2025 revenue $602m, up 38%; 21 launches with 100% mission success; Neutron first launch moved to Q4 2026 after the Stage 1 tank failure.
CEO pay (8-K Item 5.02, 30 Mar 2026): Beck cut his base salary to $1.00, waived his annual bonus and forfeited 392,155 unvested RSUs; the filing states the capital goes to R&D.

Table 6.2 Management statements in their own words

Speaker	Date and source	Statement
Peter Beck, CEO	9 Nov 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1	“Q3 2026 was a defining quarter for Rocket Lab.”
Peter Beck, CEO	29 Jun 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1	“This is a defining moment for the space industry”

Table 6.3 Key disclosures in the Forms 10-Q and 10-K

Item	Disclosure
10-Q Q3 2026, segments	Space Systems $214.8m (+88%, satellite manufacturing and acquisitions); Launch Services $53.1m (+30%, six launches recognized at a point in time against four).
10-Q Q3 2026, launch economics	Revenue per launch $7.8m (Q3 2025 $10.1m); cost per launch $5.0m (Q3 2025 $5.9m); 18 Electron launches and about 17 vehicles built in 9M 2026.
10-Q Q3 2026, Neutron	Voids found in Oct 2026 in a composite propellant tank dome led to a replacement forward dome; first launch now expected in 2027.
10-Q Q3 2026, liquidity	Cash and equivalents $4.45bn plus $256.2m of marketable securities; 9M 2026 financing inflow $3.86bn, mainly $3.88bn net ATM proceeds; the Iridium deal needs over $3.0bn of cash at close; Iridium's $1.8bn term loans (maturing Sep 2030) stay outstanding with a Rocket Lab USA guarantee.
10-Q Q3 2026, convertible notes	$1.3m outstanding; $154.3m converted in 9M 2026 into 30,112,935 shares; notes convertible 1 Oct to 31 Dec 2026.
10-Q Q3 2026, acquisitions	Mynaric added $26.0m of revenue and a $13.7m operating loss in Q3 2026; Motiv added $5.9m of revenue and $1.2m of operating income.
10-Q Q3 2026, concentration	A government customer was 42% of 9M 2026 revenue; Synspective and Muon Space each 11% of receivables at 30 Sep 2026.
10-K FY2025, contingencies	MDA contract for 17 spacecraft buses (Feb 2022) is behind its original delivery dates; liquidated damages possible, amount not determinable. SolAero assumed contract loss provision $4.6m at 30 Sep 2026.
10-K FY2025, taxes	Full valuation allowance on US deferred tax assets; FY2025 tax benefit $27.7m mainly from GEOST deferred tax liabilities.
10-K FY2025, controls	Disclosure controls and internal control effective at 31 Dec 2025; GEOST excluded from the assessment (14% of assets, 2% of revenue).
10-K FY2025, legal	Securities class action on Neutron statements (filed Feb 2025) dismissed 10 Nov 2025; amended complaint 19 Dec 2025; new motion to dismiss 19 Jan 2026. Two derivative suits stayed; no loss estimate.

7 Peer Valuation & Sector Summary

Sector: space launch, spacecraft and space systems for US defense and commercial customers. Listed peers in the table: Firefly and Intuitive Machines at Q2 2026, Redwire at Q3 2026, Planet Labs at Jul 2026 and Iridium, the pending acquisition, at Q3 2026; driver chapters add SpaceX, York, AST SpaceMobile, Northrop Grumman Space, Lockheed Martin Space and Voyager.
Scale: Rocket Lab TTM revenue $882m against Iridium $903m, Intuitive Machines $490m, Redwire $432m, Planet Labs $378m and Firefly $287m.
Operating margin TTM: Rocket Lab (27.6%), Planet Labs (27.2%), Intuitive Machines (27.5%), Redwire (46.2%), Firefly (118.0%); Iridium 19.0%.
Valuation: EV/sales Rocket Lab 37.2x, Planet Labs 12.5x, Firefly 11.9x, Iridium 7.6x, Intuitive Machines 5.5x and Redwire 3.6x. Net cash: Rocket Lab $4.70bn; Iridium net debt $2.04bn.

Table 7.1 Peer comparison, latest reported trailing twelve months

Company	Revenue TTM ($bn)	Revenue growth (%)	Gross margin (%)	Operating margin (%)	Net margin (%)	FCF margin (%)	ROE (%)	Net cash ($bn)	Market value ($bn)	EV/Sales (x)	P/E TTM (x)
RKLB	0.9	66.4	36.2	(27.6)	(25.7)	(36.9)	n/a	4.7	38	37.2	n/a
FLY	0.3	178.1	22.9	(118.0)	(126.6)	(113.8)	n/a	0.6	4	11.9	n/a
RDW	0.4	42.6	24.1	(46.2)	(52.4)	(31.6)	n/a	0.4	2	3.6	n/a
LUNR	0.5	248.2	n/a	(27.5)	(26.6)	(38.3)	n/a	0.0	3	5.5	n/a
PL	0.4	50.5	55.4	(27.2)	(95.1)	6.5	n/a	0.4	5	12.5	n/a
IRDM	0.9	4.8	n/a	19.0	18.1	30.7	28.3	(2.0)	5	7.6	29.4

RKLB, RDW and IRDM TTM to Q3 2026; FLY and LUNR TTM to Q2 2026 (Q3 2026 10-Q not filed by 10 Nov 2026); PL TTM to Jul 2026 (fiscal year ends January). Growth is year to date against prior year to date. IRDM and LUNR gross profit not tagged. RKLB market value includes the Series A preferred. IRDM price reflects the pending deal. Prices are pre market or last close of 10 Nov 2026.

Figure 7.1 Revenue growth versus operating margin, peer set

8 Material Events & Contracts

20 Forms 8-K from 10 Nov 2025 to 9 Nov 2026: four results releases, the SDA Tranche 3 award, two Neutron updates, three equity distribution agreements, the Mynaric closing, the Iridium merger agreement and its funding, management changes and the annual meeting results.
Material contracts: the Iridium merger agreement, the equity distribution agreements with their forward sale options, the 4.25% convertible notes and the SDA prime contracts.

Table 8.1 Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months

Date	Items	Event
10 Nov 2025	2.02, 5.02, 9.01	Q3 2025 results: revenue $155.1m, GAAP gross margin 37%; Q4 2025 guidance revenue $170m to $180m. Director Matt Ocko to resign effective 30 Nov 2025.
19 Dec 2025	7.01, 8.01, 9.01	SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 prime contract: 18 missile warning and tracking satellites, $816m ($806m base plus $10.45m options); largest contract to date; total SDA awards above $1.3bn including $515m Transport Layer Beta Tranche 2.
21 Jan 2026	7.01, 8.01, 9.01	Neutron Stage 1 tank ruptured during hydrostatic qualification test; schedule impact to be given with Q4 results.
26 Feb 2026	2.02, 9.01	Q4 2025 results: revenue $179.7m, FY2025 $601.8m (+38%), backlog $1.85bn (+73% year on year); Neutron first launch moved to Q4 2026; Q1 2026 guidance $185m to $200m.
12 Mar 2026	5.08, 8.01	Set 2026 annual meeting date and shareholder nomination deadline.
17 Mar 2026	8.01, 9.01	New $1.0bn equity distribution agreement with forward sale option; terminated the September 2025 $750m ATM.
30 Mar 2026	5.02, 9.01	CEO Peter Beck amended employment agreement: base salary cut to $1.00 (or statutory minimum), no annual bonus, forfeited 392,155 unvested RSUs.
14 Apr 2026	3.02, 7.01, 8.01, 9.01	Closed Mynaric AG acquisition: $155.3m consideration, nominal cash plus 2,277,002 shares (109,943 in escrow); no further earnout.
7 May 2026	2.02, 9.01	Q1 2026 results: revenue $200.3m (+63.5%), GAAP gross margin 38.2%, backlog $2.2bn; 31 Electron/HASTE plus 5 Neutron contracts signed; Q2 guidance $225m to $240m.
8 May 2026	8.01, 9.01	Resale prospectus supplement for 2,277,002 shares issued to Mynaric sellers.
20 May 2026	8.01, 9.01	New $3.0bn equity distribution agreement; terminated the March 2026 agreement.
21 May 2026	5.07	Annual meeting results: Edward Frank elected, Deloitte ratified, say on pay approved, subsidiary merger approved.
5 Jun 2026	5.02	Agostino Ricupati appointed Chief Accounting Officer effective 3 Jun 2026 ($350,000 salary, $3.0m RSUs over four years); CFO Adam Spice no longer principal accounting officer.
29 Jun 2026	1.01, 7.01, 9.01	Merger agreement to acquire Iridium Communications for $27.00 cash plus stock (exchange ratio 0.4000 at or below $67.50, floating to 0.2400 at or above $112.50), about $54 per share and $8.0bn EV; $3.6bn 364 day bridge commitment; $223.62m termination fee payable by Iridium in specified cases; outside date 28 Jun 2027 extendable to 28 Dec 2027.
10 Aug 2026	2.02, 9.01	Q2 2026 results: revenue $234.1m (+62%), backlog $2.36bn; Q3 guidance $250m to $265m; Neutron pad delivery targeted Q4 2026.
13 Aug 2026	8.01, 9.01	Filed Iridium financial information and KPMG consent for incorporation into registration statements.
13 Aug 2026	7.01, 8.01, 9.01	New $1.944bn equity distribution agreement with Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo to fund Iridium cash consideration; terminated the May 2026 agreement.
15 Sep 2026	7.01, 8.01, 9.01	Completed $1.944bn ATM (29.3m shares); Iridium $1.775bn term loan amended so the deal is not a change of control, with Rocket Lab USA guarantee at close; $3.6bn bridge commitment terminated.
14 Oct 2026	7.01, 8.01, 9.01	Neutron update: composite propellant tank dome voids found; first launch moved to 2027.
9 Nov 2026	2.02, 9.01	Q3 2026 results: revenue $267.8m (+73% year on year), backlog $3.57bn (+52% on Q2 2026), operating cash flow +$7.2m; Q4 guidance $270m to $290m.

Table 8.2 Material contracts and financing arrangements

Contract	Terms
Iridium merger agreement (28 Jun 2026, 8-K of 29 Jun 2026)	$27.00 cash plus 0.4000 shares at or below $67.50, 0.2400 at or above $112.50; about $54 per share and $8.0bn EV at signing; termination fee $223.62m payable by Iridium in specified cases; outside date 28 Jun 2027, extendable to 28 Dec 2027; Iridium holders approved; FCC and foreign approvals pending.
Iridium term loan amendment (8-K of 15 Sep 2026)	Iridium's $1.775bn term loan amended so the deal is not a change of control; Rocket Lab USA to guarantee it at closing; $3.6bn bridge commitment terminated.
Equity distribution agreements (Mar, May and Aug 2026)	Up to $1.0bn with 11 agents incl. forward sale options; up to $3.0bn with 16 agents; replacement for the unsold $1.944bn with Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo; commission up to 2.00%.
Collared forward sale (Mar 2026 program)	7,451,200 shares prepaid in Sep 2026 for $437.9m; up to about $168m more at Apr 2028 maturity depending on the price against a $63.61 floor and $86.11 cap.
4.25% convertible senior notes due 2029 and capped calls	$355.0m issued Feb 2024 at about $5.13 conversion price; $1.31m outstanding; capped calls cap $8.04 on about 69.3m shares, expiring Dec 2028 to Jan 2029, up to about $201.9m payable to Rocket Lab.
SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 (Dec 2025)	$816m for 18 missile warning and tracking satellites: $806m base plus $10.45m options.
CEO employment agreement amendment (Mar 2026)	Peter Beck's base salary cut to $1.00 or the statutory minimum, no annual bonus, 392,155 unvested RSUs forfeited ($11.2m stock compensation charge in Q1 2026).

Table 8.3 Acquisitions closed and pending, Aug 2025 to Nov 2026

Company	Closed	Purpose and terms as filed	Purchase price	Goodwill
GEOST	12 Aug 2025	electro optical and infrared sensor payloads; cash $136.2m, 3,057,588 shares ($137.7m), up to $50m cash earnout on 2026 and 2027 revenue	$292.1m	$138.6m
Mynaric	14 Apr 2026	laser optical terminals; 2,277,002 shares; Q3 2026 revenue $26.0m, operating loss $13.7m	$160.8m	$60.7m
Motiv Space Systems	26 May 2026	mechanisms and robotics; cash $38.9m plus contingent $5.7m; up to $20m stock earnout; Q3 2026 revenue $5.9m, operating income $1.2m	$44.5m	$29.0m
Optical Support Inc	Q4 2025 or Q1 2026	optical and optomechanical instruments; amount not disclosed in the filings read	n/a	n/a
Precision Components Ltd	Q4 2025 or Q1 2026	precision manufacturing; amount not disclosed in the filings read	n/a	n/a
Iridium Communications (pending)	expected 2027	$27.00 cash plus 0.4000 shares per Iridium share at or below $67.50 (0.2400 at or above $112.50); about $54 per share at signing; about $49.08 at $55.19 (derived)	about $8.0bn EV	n/a

Purchase prices and goodwill from the Q3 2026 10-Q (Note 4); Mynaric at $160.8m fair value of shares (the 8-K values the deal at $155.3m). Pro forma revenue incl. GEOST, Mynaric and Motiv: $723.7m for 9M 2026 and $493.5m for 9M 2025.

Table 8.4 Equity programs, convertible notes and bridge financing

Program	Period	Terms	Shares (m)	Gross proceeds or size
March 2025 ATM, up to $500m	2025	terminated Sep 2025	15.1	$396.6m
September 2025 ATM, up to $750m	Q3 and Q4 2025	9.59m shares for $468.8m in Q3 2025; terminated Mar 2026	n/a	$749.4m
March 2026 program, up to $1.0bn	2026	6,726,862 shares for $474.0m plus 7,451,200 collared forward shares prepaid for $437.9m	14.2	$911.9m
May 2026 program, up to $3.0bn	2026	terminated Aug 2026; unsold amount moved to the August program	7.8	$1.06bn
August 2026 program, $1.944bn	Q3 2026	completed by 15 Sep 2026; for the Iridium cash consideration	29.3	$1.94bn
4.25% convertible senior notes due 2029	Feb 2024	conversion price about $5.13; $154.3m converted in 9M 2026 into 30.11m shares; $1.31m outstanding at 30 Sep 2026	n/a	$355.0m
Iridium bridge facility, 364 days	Jun to Sep 2026	committed, never drawn, terminated 15 Sep 2026; $27.3m loss on extinguishment in Q3 2026	n/a	$3.60bn

Equity raised in 9M 2026 about $3.91bn: $474.0m, $1.06bn and $1.94bn in shares plus the $437.9m collar prepayment. Collared forwards mature Apr 2028 (floor $63.61, cap $86.11), up to about $168m more. Capped calls on the notes (cap $8.04, about 69.3m shares) expire Dec 2028 to Jan 2029 with up to about $201.9m payable to Rocket Lab.

9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

One class of common stock plus Series A convertible preferred held by the founder. 639.2m common shares at 30 Sep 2026, incl. 7.45m shares pledged to forward counterparties, and 40.95m Series A preferred held by the Equatorial Trust of Peter Beck, convertible 1:1 and voting with common on an as converted basis.
Preferred rights: the Series A elects at least one director (10% of the board if the board exceeds 10) and converts automatically if Beck stops being CEO or an approved executive officer, on transfer, death or disability, or if his beneficial ownership falls below 5%. He converted 5,000,000 preferred shares on 26 May 2026.
5% holders in the 2026 proxy: Khosla Ventures affiliates 34,888,272 shares (6.1%, Schedule 13D/A Amendment No. 10 of 17 Feb 2026) and BlackRock 30,222,153 (5.2%, Schedule 13G of 17 Oct 2025). A 13F holder trend was not collected.
2026 annual meeting (20 May 2026): Edward Frank elected with 84.2% of votes cast; Deloitte ratified with 99.6%; say on pay 90.5%; the subsidiary merger that removes the pass through voting provision at Rocket Lab USA passed with 99.5%, after the same proposal failed the two thirds supermajority at the Aug 2025 meeting (56.7% of outstanding shares in favour).
Insiders, Nov 2025 to Nov 2026: sales of about $691.3m, of which $641.4m under pre arranged trading plans; no open market purchases. Beck sold 5,813,493 shares for about $429.6m and CFO Adam Spice 1,983,928 for about $145.7m.

Table 9.1 Annual meeting vote results, 20 May 2026

Proposal	For (m votes)	Against (m votes)	Abstain (m votes)	For as % of votes cast	Result
Elect Edward H. Frank as Class II director (term to 2029)	297.7	55.9	n/a	84.2	Elected
Ratify Deloitte & Touche LLP for FY2026	467.4	1.7	0.9	99.6	Approved
Advisory vote on named executive officer pay	319.1	33.5	1.0	90.5	Approved
Approve subsidiary merger to remove pass through voting provision at Rocket Lab USA, Inc.	351.2	1.9	0.5	99.5	Approved (majority of outstanding voting power required)

Director votes are for and withheld. Broker non votes 116.5m on each item except the auditor ratification. Record date shares 575,767,300 common.

Annual meeting

No meeting transcript or remarks were filed; the Item 5.07 8-K of 21 May 2026 reports only the vote results.

Table 9.2 Holders and insider transactions

Holder or group	Source	Shares	Voting power
Peter Beck and Equatorial Trust (30 Mar 2026)	2026 proxy; incl. 45,951,250 Series A preferred	46,443,180	7.5%
Khosla Ventures affiliates	2026 proxy citing Schedule 13D/A of 17 Feb 2026	34,888,272	6.1%
BlackRock, Inc.	2026 proxy citing Schedule 13G of 17 Oct 2025	30,222,153	5.2%
Directors and executive officers as a group (30 Mar 2026)	2026 proxy	52,394,596	8.4%
Insider sales, Nov 2025 to Nov 2026	Forms 4; $641.4m under pre arranged trading plans	n/a	$691.3m
Open market purchases, Nov 2025 to Nov 2026	Forms 4	0	$0.0m

Percentages are of voting power as stated in the 2026 proxy (record date 575,767,300 common shares plus the Series A preferred). A 13F holder trend and a two year 13D and 13G history were not collected.

Table 9.3 Largest insider sellers, Nov 2025 to Nov 2026

Insider	Detail	Shares sold	Value
Peter Beck, CEO	about 3.3m shares on 6 to 8 Jul 2026 at $81.59 to $101.57, after converting 5,000,000 preferred shares on 26 May 2026; about 2.5m shares on 15 and 16 Dec 2025 at $53.21 to $64.31	5,813,493	$429.6m
Adam Spice, CFO	34 sale lines; latest on 2 Nov 2026 at $51.28 to $54.78	1,983,928	$145.7m
Arjun Kampani, General Counsel	Forms 4	315,901	$33.5m
Frank Klein, COO	Forms 4	390,268	$32.2m
Alex Slusky, director	Forms 4	200,000	$25.7m

Values are approximate sums of reported sale prices on Forms 4.

10 Risk Factors

Item 1A of the FY2025 10-K holds 62 risk factors against 61 in FY2024: 2 added (performance based payment terms, trade policy and tariffs), 1 removed (equipment financing covenants) and 8 materially reworded. The Q2 2026 10-Q adds 10 factors on the Iridium acquisition; the Q3 2026 10-Q adds the Neutron composite structure issue to the order rate and technology factor.

Table 10.1 Risk factors and legal matters with filed figures

Risk	Disclosure and change
Neutron development	Stage 1 tank rupture on 21 Jan 2026 and composite tank dome voids in Oct 2026; first launch moved from Q4 2026 to 2027; 16 Neutron missions in backlog.
Operating losses	Operating loss $243.7m TTM; accumulated deficit $1.19bn at 30 Sep 2026; the FY2025 text states the company may never achieve or sustain profitability.
Iridium acquisition	10 factors added in the Q2 2026 10-Q: closing conditions and the 28 Jun 2027 end date, FCC, foreign and security clearance approvals, integration of a subscription satellite services business, dilution, transaction costs and the Iridium term loan guarantee.
Customer concentration and US government	Largest government customer 42% of 9M 2026 revenue; the US government shutdown from 1 Oct 2025 delayed awards, payments and export licences (FY2025 10-K).
Contract delays	MDA contract for 17 spacecraft buses behind schedule with possible liquidated damages; new factor on performance based payment terms.
Dilution	Weighted shares 481.8m in FY2023, 530.7m in FY2025 and 652.3m in Q3 2026; about 42.5m shares to be issued for Iridium (derived at 0.4000).
Tariffs and supply	New tariff factor; tariffs in 6 factors with 25 mentions against 5 and 9 a year earlier; rare earth minerals named among constrained inputs.
Legal	Securities class action on Neutron statements: dismissed 10 Nov 2025, amended complaint filed, motion to dismiss pending; two derivative suits stayed.

How risk factors changed

Comparison: 10-K FY2025 filed 26 Feb 2026 acc 0001819994-26-000013 against 10-K FY2024 filed 27 Feb 2025 acc 0001628280-25-008724 (10-K/A of 30 Apr 2025 is Part III only and was not compared).
Tariffs appear in 6 risk factors with 25 mentions in the FY2025 10-K against 5 factors and 9 mentions a year earlier, including one new standalone tariff factor.
Neutron is named in 4 factors (8 mentions) against 3 factors (4 mentions), and the 2026 Forms 10-Q add two dated Neutron setbacks: the 21 Jan 2026 tank rupture and the Oct 2026 composite structure issue.
The US government operations factor now describes the shutdown from 1 Oct 2025 and its effects on awards, payments, export licences and the Wallops site.
After the 10-K, the Q2 2026 10-Q added 10 factors on the Iridium deal covering financing, US and foreign regulatory approvals, integration and dilution.
Total length was nearly flat: 62 factors and 17,124 words against 61 factors and 17,175 words.

Figure 10.1 Risk factors by change against the prior filing

Table 10.2 Size of the risk factor section

Measure	10-K FY2024	10-K FY2025
Risk factors (count)	61	62
Words in Item 1A	17,175	17,124

Table 10.3 Risk factors added, removed and materially reworded

Change	Risk factor	What changed
Added	Performance based payment terms in contracts	New factor: some contracts tie payments to ongoing performance of the delivered product or service over an extended period, so underperformance can cut or stop payments or require refunds of amounts already received.
Added	Trade policy and tariffs	New 328 word factor citing the shift in US trade policy from Apr 2025, reliance on some imported materials and components, exposure through the Canada and New Zealand operations, possible retaliatory tariffs and court challenges to tariff legality.
Removed	Equipment financing agreement covenants	Factor on restrictive covenants in the equipment financing agreement (limits on new debt, liens, asset sales, mergers) dropped; the Q3 2026 release shows only $1.7m of long term borrowings left at 30 Sep 2026.
Reworded	Disruptions in US government operations and funding	Body doubled from 107 to 210 words: adds the US government shutdown from 1 Oct 2025, which delayed contract awards and payments, State Department export licences for foreign launches and visas, and cut staff at the Wallops launch site.
Reworded	History of losses	Shortened from 323 to 271 words; drops wording on new public company costs and states directly that the company may never achieve or sustain profitability.
Reworded	Global macroeconomic and political conditions	Cut from 393 to 268 words: removes the detailed Russia sanctions passage and adds the Israel Hamas war, China Taiwan relations and tariff actions by the US administration.
Reworded	Supply of raw materials, now naming rare earths	Heading now names restrictions on access to rare earth minerals; body adds rare earth minerals to the list of constrained inputs.
Reworded	Tax law changes	Rewritten (word similarity 0.19): CARES Act and 2017 tax act text replaced by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which reinstates full expensing of domestic R&D under Section 174 from 2025; the company says OBBB does not materially affect its tax provision.
Reworded	Contract cost overruns	Adds that delays or missed requirements can create liability for customer costs, penalties and liquidated damages (the Q3 2026 10-Q notes possible liquidated damages tied to delays).
Reworded	Order rate and new technology development	Adds the Neutron Stage 1 tank rupture in a hydrostatic test on 21 Jan 2026 and its effect on the launch schedule, plus the risk of monetising products still in development.
Reworded	General regulatory risks	Tariff passage updated to cover China, Mexico and Canada, continuing new or reinstated tariffs, and retaliatory measures on US goods.

Table 10.4 Risk factor updates in quarterly reports since the annual filing

Filing	Change disclosed
10-Q Q1 2026 filed 7 May 2026	No material change from the FY2025 10-K risk factors.
10-Q Q2 2026 filed 10 Aug 2026	Adds 10 risk factors on the pending Iridium acquisition: closing conditions and the 28 Jun 2027 end date (extendable to 28 Dec 2027); the $3.6bn bridge financing and obligation to close without a financing condition; higher debt and covenants; HSR review; FCC, foreign telecom, foreign investment and DCSA security clearance approvals; integration of a subscription satellite services business; merger litigation; change of control clauses; dilution from share issuance; transaction costs.
10-Q Q3 2026 filed 9 Nov 2026	Restates the order rate and technology development factor to add the Oct 2026 discovery of a manufacturing process issue in first stage composite structures, which delayed Neutron's inaugural launch further (now expected in 2027); otherwise no material change from the 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q.

11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

RKLB traded at $55.19 before the regular session on 10 Nov 2026, after results released on 9 Nov 2026, (6.2%) on the 9 Nov close of $58.86. The pre market price is 63.5% below the 52 week high of $151.00 (May 2026) and 46.9% above the low of $37.57 (Nov 2025).
Market value $37.5bn on 680.1m shares: 639.2m common plus 40.95m Series A convertible preferred held by the founder's trust, which converts 1:1 and votes with common (common only $35.3bn). EV/sales 37.2x TTM revenue and 33.4x the implied FY2026 midpoint; no P/E, as the company reports losses.
Scenario basis: operating losses rule out a P/E, so the model values the company on an exit EV/sales multiple: FY2029 revenue grown from the implied FY2026 midpoint of $982m, times the exit multiple, plus net cash of $4.70bn at 30 Sep 2026, divided by 680.1m shares plus 5%. Net cash is held flat with no cash burn deducted. Iridium is excluded: the deal is pending and would add about $0.9bn of revenue, use about $2.9bn of cash and add about 42.5m shares.

Figure 11.1 RKLB monthly closing price and three year scenarios

Critical factors and core assumptions

Table 11.1 Critical factors behind the best case

Factor	Current value	Best case requires	Evidence in filings and calls
Neutron first flight and cadence	first launch expected 2027; 16 missions in backlog; base price $70m	first flight in 2027 and a rising launch rate by 2029	10-Q Q3 2026 MD&A; 8-K of 14 Oct 2026; Q3 2026 release
Backlog conversion	backlog $3.57bn, 33% within 12 months	backlog keeps growing faster than revenue	10-Q Q3 2026 Note 3
Gross margin	GAAP 33.6% in Q3 2026; Q4 2026 guidance 34% to 36%	GAAP gross margin above 40% as Neutron and components scale	8-K Ex 99.1 of 9 Nov 2026
Iridium closing	pending; HSR expired, Iridium holders approved, FCC and foreign approvals pending; Iridium TTM revenue $903.0m	closing in 2027 with Iridium cash flow intact	10-Q Q3 2026 Note 1; Iridium 10-Q Q3 2026
US defense demand	largest government customer 42% of 9M 2026 revenue; SDA awards above $1.3bn; SB‑AMTI $397m	further SDA and Golden Dome prime awards	10-Q concentration note; 8-K of 19 Dec 2025; Q2 2026 release
Operating costs and dilution	TTM operating loss $243.7m; Q4 2026 basic shares guided at 681m	adjusted EBITDA positive and share growth below 5% a year	8-K Ex 99.1 of 9 Nov 2026

Revenue base implied FY2026 midpoint $982m (9M 2026 actual $702.2m plus the Q4 2026 guidance midpoint of $280m); Iridium is excluded.
Best case: 45% revenue CAGR to about $2.99bn in FY2029 with Neutron flying and backlog converting; exit 20x EV/sales.
Base case: 30% revenue CAGR to about $2.16bn; exit 14x EV/sales.
Worst case: 12% revenue CAGR to about $1.38bn with further Neutron delays and slower defense awards; exit 5x EV/sales.
Share count 680.1m common and preferred plus 5% to FY2029 (model assumption for stock compensation and equity raises); net cash $4.70bn held flat; current EV/sales 33.4x the implied FY2026 midpoint.

Scenarios, three years forward

Table 11.2 Scenario analysis, FY2026 implied midpoint to FY2029

Measure	Worst case	Base case	Best case
Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%)	12.0	30.0	45.0
Revenue, FY2029 ($bn)	1.4	2.2	3.0
Exit EV/Sales (x)	5.0	14.0	20.0
Implied price ($)	16	49	90
Change against $55.19 (%)	(71)	(11)	64
Implied annual return (%)	(33.5)	(4.0)	17.9

Valuation basis: exit EV/sales on FY2029 revenue plus net cash of $4.70bn at 30 Sep 2026, held flat with no cash burn deducted; share count 680.1m plus 5% (model assumption). Operating margins are left out. Iridium excluded. Rocket Lab pays no dividend.

Sensitivity analysis

Table 11.3 Sensitivity of implied price to revenue CAGR and exit EV/Sales

Revenue CAGR \ EV/Sales	5x	10x	14x	17x	20x
12%	$16	$26	$34	$39	$45
20%	$18	$30	$40	$47	$54
30%	$22	$37	$49	$58	$67
38%	$25	$43	$57	$68	$79
45%	$28	$49	$65	$78	$90

Cells show implied share price in year 3. Pre market price of 10 Nov 2026 after results $55.19. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below. Each cell uses net cash of $4.70bn held flat (no cash burn deducted) and 714.1m shares (680.1m plus 5%, a model assumption).

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 10 November 2026.

Sources

All company and peer figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server.

Table A.1 Filings used, with accession numbers

Form	Period	Filed	Accession number
10-Q	Q3 2026	9 Nov 2026	0001819994-26-000074
8-K Ex 99.1	Q3 2026	9 Nov 2026	0001819994-26-000073
10-Q	Q2 2026	10 Aug 2026	0001819994-26-000062
8-K Ex 99.1	Q2 2026	10 Aug 2026	0001819994-26-000061
10-Q	Q1 2026	7 May 2026	0001819994-26-000028
8-K Ex 99.1	Q1 2026	7 May 2026	0001819994-26-000027
10-K	FY2025	26 Feb 2026	0001819994-26-000013
8-K Ex 99.1	Q4 2025	26 Feb 2026	0001819994-26-000012
10-Q	Q3 2025	10 Nov 2025	0001819994-25-000021
8-K Ex 99.1	Q3 2025	10 Nov 2025	0001819994-25-000020
10-Q	Q2 2025	7 Aug 2025	0001628280-25-038936
10-Q	Q1 2025	8 May 2025	0001628280-25-023857
10-K	FY2023	28 Feb 2024	0000950170-24-022160
10-K	FY2022	7 Mar 2023	0000950170-23-006499
DEF 14A	2026 annual meeting	6 Apr 2026	0001628280-26-023922
8-K 5.07	2026 annual meeting	21 May 2026	0001819994-26-000048
8-K 1.01	Iridium merger	29 Jun 2026	0001753926-26-001085
8-K	Iridium financing	15 Sep 2026	0001753926-26-001769
8-K	Neutron update	14 Oct 2026	0001819994-26-000067
8-K	SDA Tranche 3	19 Dec 2025	0001819994-25-000024

Table A.2 Competitor and other filings used

Company	Form	Filed	Accession number
AST SpaceMobile	10-Q	9 Nov 2026	0001193125-26-453759
Firefly Aerospace	10-K (peer table)	2026	0001193125-26-116309
Firefly Aerospace	10-Q	11 Aug 2026	0001860160-26-000023
Intuitive Machines	10-Q (peer table)	2026	0001628280-26-056821
Intuitive Machines	10-K (peer table)	2026	0001628280-26-019865
Intuitive Machines	8-K Ex 99.1	13 Aug 2026	0001628280-26-056476
Iridium Communications	10-Q (peer table)	2026	0001418819-26-000052
Iridium Communications	10-K (peer table)	2026	0001418819-26-000009
Lockheed Martin	8-K Ex 99.1	22 Oct 2026	0001628280-26-066780
Northrop Grumman	8-K Ex 99	20 Oct 2026	0001133421-26-000037
Planet Labs	10-Q (peer table)	2026	0001193125-26-382016
Planet Labs	10-K (peer table)	2026	0001193125-26-119957
Planet Labs	8-K Ex 99.1	3 Sep 2026	0001193125-26-381874
Redwire	10-K (peer table)	2026	0001819810-26-000029
Redwire	10-Q	5 Nov 2026	0001819810-26-000142
Rocket Lab	10-K FY2024 (risk factors)	27 Feb 2025	0001628280-25-008724
Rocket Lab	8-K Ex 99.1 SDA award	19 Dec 2025	0001819994-25-000024
Rocket Lab	8-K Neutron tank test	21 Jan 2026	0001819994-26-000004
Rocket Lab	8-K Ex 99.3 Iridium pro forma	13 Aug 2026	0001753926-26-001454
Rocket Lab	8-K Iridium progress	13 Aug 2026	0001753926-26-001463
SpaceX	10-Q	22 Oct 2026	0001628280-26-066880
Voyager Technologies	10-Q	3 Nov 2026	0001628280-26-069548
York Space Systems	8-K Ex 99.1	13 Aug 2026	0001628280-26-056704

Table B.1 Exhibits to Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months

Filed	Exhibit	Document	Content
10 Nov 2025	EX-99.1	Q3 2025 results release	Q3 2025 revenue $155.1m against $104.8m a year earlier, up 48%; GAAP gross margin 37% (gross profit $57.3m); non GAAP gross margin 41.9%; Net loss $18.3m against $51.9m, helped by a $41.1m income tax benefit.
19 Dec 2025	EX-99.1	SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 3 prime contract	$816m prime contract from the Space Development Agency for 18 missile warning, tracking and defense satellites (TRKT3): $806m base plus up to $10.45m options; Largest single contract in company history; satellites use the Lightning platform and the Phoenix infrared payload.
21 Jan 2026	EX-99.1	Neutron Stage 1 tank test failure	Neutron Stage 1 tank ruptured during a hydrostatic pressure qualification test; Release reports test structure and facilities undamaged in substance; next Stage 1 tank already in production.
26 Feb 2026	EX-99.1	Q4 and FY2025 results release	Q4 2025 revenue $179.7m against $132.4m; FY2025 revenue $601.8m against $436.2m, up 38%; Q4 2025 gross profit $68.2m (38.0% GAAP, 44.3% non GAAP); FY2025 net loss $198.2m against $190.2m.
17 Mar 2026	EX-1.1	Equity distribution agreement (ATM), up to $1bn	ATM program of up to $1.0bn of common stock with 11 sales agents, including initially priced and collared forward sale options; Sales agent commission up to 2.00% of sales price.
17 Mar 2026	EX-5.1	Legal opinion on ATM shares	Validity opinion for shares under the $1.0bn ATM program.
14 Apr 2026	EX-99.1	Mynaric acquisition completed	Acquired Mynaric AG (laser optical communications terminals) for aggregate consideration of $155.3m: nominal cash and 2,277,002 shares; Approved by Germany's Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy; Mynaric stays headquartered in Munich as the first European site.
7 May 2026	EX-99.1	Q1 2026 results release	Q1 2026 revenue $200.3m against $122.6m, up 63.5%; GAAP gross margin 38.2% (non GAAP 43.0%); Net loss $45.0m against $60.6m; backlog $2.2bn, up 20.2% quarter on quarter; liquidity above $2bn.
8 May 2026	EX-5.1	Legal opinion on resale of Mynaric consideration shares	Covers resale of up to 2,277,002 shares issued 14 Apr 2026 in the Mynaric private placement.
20 May 2026	EX-1.1	Equity distribution agreement (ATM), up to $3bn	ATM program of up to $3.0bn of common stock with 16 sales agents, including forward sale options; commission up to 2.00%.
20 May 2026	EX-5.1	Legal opinion on $3bn ATM shares	Validity opinion.
29 Jun 2026	EX-2.1	Agreement and Plan of Merger with Iridium	Iridium holders receive $27.00 cash plus Rocket Lab stock at an exchange ratio of 0.4000 at or below $67.50 and 0.2400 at or above $112.50 per Rocket Lab share; Outside date 28 Jun 2027, extendable to 28 Sep 2027 and 28 Dec 2027; termination fee $223.62m payable by Iridium in specified cases.
29 Jun 2026	EX-10.1	Form of Iridium director support agreement	Iridium directors holding about 1.6% of Iridium shares (24 Jun 2026) agree to vote for the merger.
29 Jun 2026	EX-99.1	Iridium acquisition announcement	Rocket Lab to acquire Iridium for $54 per share in cash and stock; enterprise value about $8.0bn; Iridium 2025 revenue $871.7m, OEBITDA $495m (57% margin); more than 2.55m subscribers.
29 Jun 2026	EX-99.2	Iridium investor presentation	Iridium operates 66 operational satellites plus 14 spares in orbit and holds global L band spectrum rights; Presentation cites a $100bn+ addressable market (third party space economy report, Jan 2026).
10 Aug 2026	EX-99.1	Q2 2026 results release	Q2 2026 revenue $234.1m against $144.5m, up 62%; non GAAP gross margin 41.5%; net loss $49.3m against $66.4m; Backlog $2.36bn, up 137% year on year; more than $437m of new launch contracts in Q2 and after, launch backlog 90+ launches.
13 Aug 2026	EX-23.1	Consent of KPMG (Iridium auditor)	Consent allowing Iridium financial information to be incorporated into Rocket Lab registration statements.
13 Aug 2026	EX-99.3	Unaudited pro forma combined financial information, Rocket Lab and Iridium	Pro forma H1 2026 combined revenue $878.7m: Rocket Lab $434.4m plus Iridium $444.3m; Pro forma H1 2026 combined net loss $154.7m against Rocket Lab standalone net loss $94.3m and Iridium net income $31.3m.
13 Aug 2026	EX-1.1	Replacement equity distribution agreement	Replacement ATM with Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo for up to $1,944,369,826, the unsold amount of the May 2026 program; no increase in total offered.
13 Aug 2026	EX-5.1	Legal opinion on replacement ATM shares	Validity opinion.
13 Aug 2026	EX-99.1	Replacement ATM announcement	Net proceeds intended to fund Iridium cash payments and reduce bridge loan commitments; the program is not conditioned on deal completion.
13 Aug 2026	EX-99.2	Iridium deal progress update	HSR waiting period expired 12 Aug 2026; merger registration statement filed 13 Aug 2026; FCC transfer applications filed 10 Aug 2026; Plan to amend Iridium's $1.775bn term loan so it stays in place after closing, reducing bridge commitments.
15 Sep 2026	EX-99.1	Iridium acquisition fully funded	ATM completed: about $1.944bn gross proceeds from 29.3m shares; Iridium lenders amended the $1.775bn term loan change of control definition; Rocket Lab USA to guarantee it at closing.
14 Oct 2026	EX-99.1	Neutron update and new launch timing	Neutron inaugural launch now expected in 2027 (previous target Q4 2026); details in a presentation on the IR site; Q3 2026 10-Q states the cause: voids found in Oct 2026 in a composite propellant tank dome, requiring a replacement forward dome.
9 Nov 2026	EX-99.1	Q3 2026 results release	Q3 2026 revenue $267.8m against $155.1m, up 73%; GAAP gross profit $90.1m (33.6%), non GAAP gross margin 38.4%; Net loss $79.7m against $18.3m, including a $27.3m loss on extinguishment of debt; positive GAAP operating cash flow of $7.2m.