Amgen Inc. (AMGN), Financial Analysis

1 Revenue & Business Model

• Storyline: Amgen grows product volume in newer medicines while older brands lose exclusivity or face Medicare price setting. Repatha, Evenity, Tezspire, Uplizna, Imdelltra and Blincyto together earned $3.73bn in Q3 2026, +53%, against $920m for Prolia plus Xgeva. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three revenue drivers: Repatha, Evenity and MariTide; rare disease and inflammation; oncology and biosimilars.
• One operating segment (human therapeutics). FY2025 total revenues $36.75bn: product sales $35.15bn and other revenues (royalties, partner revenue) $1.60bn; 14 products sold above $1bn. McKesson, Cencora and Cardinal Health together accounted for 77% of worldwide gross revenues in 2025 (10-K FY2025).
• Revenues FY2021 $25.98bn, FY2025 $36.75bn, a 9.1% CAGR, with the Horizon acquisition (closed 6 Oct 2023) adding Tepezza, Krystexxa, Uplizna and ultra rare products. TTM Q3 2026 revenues $38.90bn, +8.2%.
• Regions: United States 71.9% of FY2025 total revenues against 70.0% in FY2021; in Q3 2026 US product sales were $7.26bn (+7.5%) and rest of world $2.62bn (+10.0%).
• Horizon products (Tepezza, Krystexxa, Uplizna, ultra rare) earned $4.17bn in FY2024 and $4.62bn in FY2025, and $4.07bn in 9M 2026, +22.1% on 9M 2025.

2 Repatha, Evenity and MariTide: Volume Growth and an Obesity Program in Phase 3

• Repatha $1.09bn in Q3 2026, +37%: US $666m (+51%), rest of world $419m. 9M 2026 $2.91bn, +36%. Amgen expects Repatha's net price to fall by about mid single digits in 2026.
• Repatha outcomes data: in VESALIUS CV (more than 12,000 patients without a prior heart attack or stroke) Repatha cut the risk of three point MACE by 25% and of heart attack by 36%; an Aug 2026 analysis showed a nominal 20% lower all cause mortality; the EU label was expanded in Aug 2026 (8-K Ex 99.1).
• Evenity $751m, +39%: US $557m, rest of world $194m. Stated on the call: Evenity holds close to 60% volume share of Japan's bone builder category.
• Weight in the group: Repatha and Evenity earned 18.6% of Q3 2026 product sales against 14.6% a year earlier.
• MariTide (status as filed, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 3 Nov 2026): MARITIME 1 (obesity without type 2 diabetes) and MARITIME 2 (with type 2 diabetes) ongoing; enrollment complete in MARITIME CV and both sleep apnea studies; MARITIME HF, MARITIME SWITCH (from weekly tirzepatide or semaglutide to dosing every 8 weeks or quarterly) and extension studies enrolling; MARITIME T2D 3 against semaglutide started, with two more Phase 3 type 2 diabetes studies to start in Q4 2026. Dosing starts monthly, with maintenance of as few as four or six doses a year. No readout dates are filed.
• MariTide Phase 2 (10-K FY2025): in Part 2, most participants who had lost at least 15% of body weight kept it off for a further 52 weeks on lower monthly or quarterly doses; a Phase 2 type 2 diabetes study showed lower HbA1c and weight at 24 weeks. Capex at the North Carolina, Ohio and Puerto Rico sites partly prepares for a possible launch (stated on the call).

How the cholesterol and obesity markets are changing

• New PCSK9 entrants: FDA approved Merck's Lipfendra (enlicitide), the first once daily oral PCSK9 inhibitor, in Jul 2026, with LDL cholesterol 56% to 59% lower than placebo at week 24 (Merck 8-K Ex 99.1); Novartis Leqvio, dosed twice a year, grew 63% at constant currency to $506m and gained an FDA label update on MACE reduction (Novartis 6-K).
• Antibody rival: Praluent US net sales $81m, +20.9% (Regeneron), and EUR 156m outside the US, +20.5% (Sanofi), against Repatha $1.09bn.
• Obesity scale: Lilly Zepbound $5.35bn (+49.2%) and Mounjaro $10.72bn (+64.6%) in Q3 2026 (Lilly 10-Q); Novo Nordisk obesity sales DKK 26.15bn (+22% at CER) incl. the Wegovy pill (DKK 5.39bn) launched in the US on 5 Jan 2026 at US prices of $149 to $299 a month; Novo reported 21% weight loss for CagriSema at week 68 in REDEFINE 9 (Novo 6-K).
• Pricing policy: the 10-K FY2025 records Amgen's Dec 2025 actions to satisfy the Jul 2025 most favored nation letter and an expanded direct to patient program.

3 Rare Disease and Inflammation: Uplizna and Tezspire Grow as Medicare Prices Reach Enbrel and Otezla

• Rare disease $1.61bn in Q3 2026, +20%: Uplizna $451m (+191%) after its US approval in generalized myasthenia gravis (Dec 2025); Krystexxa $419m (+31%); Tepezza $526m, (6%), which management attributed on the call to a prior year inventory build; Tavneos $105m.
• Tezspire $538m, +43% (Amgen books US sales; AstraZeneca books the rest); the Phase 3 CROSSING study in eosinophilic esophagitis was positive. Stated on the call: US new to brand prescriptions up 15% against about 3% market growth.
• Enbrel $611m, +5%, with net selling price 14% lower in Q3 2026 under the Medicare Part D price set from 1 Jan 2026, after 15% lower in Q1 and 22% lower in Q2; 9M 2026 (11%).
• Otezla $481m, (18%): rest of world sales fell 53% after generic entry in certain European countries in Q1 2026; the Medicare Part D price applies from Jan 2027, after $1.2bn of intangible impairments in 2025.
• Tavneos: CDER proposed on 27 Apr 2026 to withdraw the US approval; Amgen requested a hearing and its 23 Jul 2026 submission awaits CDER; the EU authorization was revoked in Aug 2026.

How the rare disease and inflammation markets are changing

• Medicare price setting: CMS sets prices for 10 Part D drugs from 1 Jan 2026, 15 more in 2027 and 2028 and 20 a year from 2029, about 100 drugs by 2031 (10-Q Q3 2026). Enbrel's price applies from 2026, Otezla's from 2027, and Repatha may be selected as early as Jan 2029.
• Myasthenia gravis: argenx Vyvgart, an FcRn blocker, reached $1.72bn of product net sales in Q3 2026, +52.7%, and filed an sBLA in ocular myasthenia gravis (argenx 6-K), against Uplizna $451m.
• Respiratory and eosinophilic disease: AstraZeneca booked Tezspire sales of $429m outside the US, +50.0% (AstraZeneca 6-K); Sanofi Dupixent, already approved in eosinophilic esophagitis, sold EUR 5.69bn, +34.8% at CER (Sanofi 6-K).
• Immunology peers: AbbVie immunology $9.17bn, +16.3% (AbbVie 8-K); Novartis Cosentyx $1.86bn, +9.0% at constant currency (Novartis 6-K).

4 Oncology and Biosimilars: BiTE Growth and Pavblu Against Denosumab Biosimilar Erosion

• Prolia plus Xgeva $920m in Q3 2026 against $1.68bn, (45%): Prolia $632m (45%, volume 23% lower), Xgeva $288m (47%, volume 32% lower, net price 11% lower). US RANKL antibody patents expired in Feb 2025 and select European patents in Nov 2025; Amgen expects further erosion in 2026.
• Oncology sales $2.14bn, +21% (Blincyto, Imdelltra, Vectibix, Kyprolis, Lumakras, Nplate): Blincyto $496m (+27%) and Imdelltra $406m (+128%), with rest of world Imdelltra $182m after EU approval in May 2026.
• Imdelltra: full FDA approval in second line extensive stage small cell lung cancer (Nov 2025); in Sep 2026 FDA cut the monitoring time for the first two doses to 6 to 8 hours from 22 to 24 hours; DeLLphi 305 with AstraZeneca's Imfinzi showed median overall survival of 21.1 months against 12.7 months for Imfinzi alone (stated on the call).
• Biosimilars portfolio $977m, +26%: Pavblu $300m (+41%, volume +71%, net price 18% lower), Amjevita $191m, Mvasi $168m. FY2025 biosimilars $3.0bn.
• Net effect: Blincyto, Imdelltra and biosimilars added $534m of quarterly sales year on year against a $758m fall in Prolia plus Xgeva.

How the oncology and biosimilar markets are changing

• Denosumab biosimilars: Organon sold $24m of its Prolia and Xgeva biosimilars (Bildyos, Bilprevda) in Q3 2026 against $3m in Q3 2025, their launch quarter, and $60m in 9M 2026 (Organon 10-Q).
• Aflibercept: Regeneron US EYLEA 2 mg sales fell 41.3% to $400m while EYLEA HD rose 62.2% to $699m (Regeneron 8-K); Pavblu grew to $300m.
• Biosimilar pipeline against large reference products: ABP 206 (Opdivo) is under FDA review with action expected by end 2026; ABP 234 (Keytruda, $8.60bn of Merck sales in Q3 2026, +5.6%) met its primary endpoints and was submitted; ABP 938 targets EYLEA HD (Amgen 8-K Ex 99.1).
• Oncology peers: AstraZeneca Imfinzi $1.99bn, +24% (partner drug in DeLLphi 305); J&J oncology $7.60bn, +16.4%, in the quarter to 27 Sep 2026; Pfizer oncology $4.33bn, +9.9%.

5 Financial Analysis & Ratios

• TTM Q3 2026 operating income $12.61bn, 32.4% of total revenues, against 24.7% in FY2025, as amortization of acquired intangibles (mainly Horizon) in cost of sales declined. Amgen's non GAAP operating margin, which excludes that amortization, was 47.3% of product sales in Q3 2026 and 46.1% in FY2025.
• Net income TTM $9.39bn, GAAP diluted EPS $17.24, non GAAP EPS $23.17. Other income swings with the fair value of the BeOne stake (about 17%, $6.9bn at 30 Sep 2026): Q3 2026 included an unrealized gain of $1.5bn.
• Cash flow TTM Q3 2026: operating cash flow $12.04bn, capex $2.45bn, free cash flow $9.58bn (24.6% of revenues), dividends $5.37bn, no buybacks. Q3 2026 free cash flow $3.65bn against $4.25bn, when Q3 2025 benefited from rebate and collection timing (8-K Ex 99.1).
• Balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026: debt $54.0bn against $64.6bn at end 2023 after the Horizon financing; cash $13.2bn; net debt $40.8bn; equity $14.4bn; goodwill $18.7bn and intangibles $19.5bn.
• Capital returns: quarterly dividend $2.52 (+6%), declared again in Oct 2026; no buybacks in 2025 or 9M 2026, with $6.8bn of authorization left and FY2026 repurchases capped at $3.0bn.

Cost structure and profitability

• Gross margin 73.1% of total revenues in Q3 2026 against 67.8%, as the acquisition amortization adjustment in cost of sales fell to $881m from $1.42bn; non GAAP cost of sales rose to 19.3% of product sales from 18.2% on profit share expense and sales mix (8-K Ex 99.1).
• R&D $2.11bn in Q3 2026, +11.1%, 20.4% of revenues; 9M 2026 R&D $5.70bn against $5.13bn, with later stage programs led by MariTide.
• SG&A $1.68bn, (2.3%), 16.2% of revenues; other operating expenses $76m against $329m, when Q3 2025 carried the $400m Otezla impairment.
• Below operating income: interest expense $653m; other income $1.63bn, mainly the BeOne gain; tax $822m on pretax income of $4.69bn (17.5%); non GAAP tax rate 15.9% against 18.2%.
• Operating margin 35.8% in Q3 2026 against 26.4%; 9M 2026 34.1% against 23.7% in 9M 2025. Amgen reports GAAP operating margin of 37.5% and non GAAP of 47.3% on product sales.

Horizon acquisition, amortization and debt

• Horizon (closed 6 Oct 2023, $27.8bn): developed product technology rights of $19.6bn amortized over about 10 years plus $1.06bn of IPR&D, acquired inventory at a fair value of $5.0bn (step up amortization $1.3bn in FY2025) and goodwill of $3.1bn. Group intangibles fell from $32.6bn at end 2023 to $19.5bn at 30 Sep 2026.
• Acquisition amortization in cost of sales (non GAAP adjustment, Horizon the largest part): $881m in Q3 2026 against $1.42bn, and $2.96bn in 9M 2026 against $4.43bn.
• Debt: $64.6bn at end 2023, $60.1bn at end 2024, $54.6bn at end 2025 and $54.0bn at 30 Sep 2026; the 10-K states that Amgen has substantially returned to its pre acquisition capital structure. Interest expense $3.16bn in FY2024, $2.76bn in FY2025 and $1.98bn in 9M 2026.
• Feb 2026 notes: $4.0bn in four tranches at 4.20% (2031), 4.85% (2036), 5.50% (2046) and 5.65% (2056); principal maturities at end 2025 were $4.57bn in 2026 and $2.72bn in 2027.

6 MD&A & Management Commentary

Q3 2026 results release and Form 10-Q (3 Nov 2026)

• Q3 2026: total revenues $10.37bn, +8.5%; product sales $9.88bn, +8.2%: US $7.26bn (+8%) and rest of world $2.62bn (+10%) on US volume +8% and rest of world volume +16%; other revenues $482m (+15%) on royalties and partner revenue (10-Q).
• Costs (10-Q): operating expenses $6.66bn, (5.3%), on lower acquisition amortization and the absence of the $400m Otezla impairment of Q3 2025; cost of sales 26.9% of revenues against 32.2%; R&D $2.11bn, +11.1%, with later stage spending mainly on MariTide.
• Products (8-K Ex 99.1 and 10-Q): Enbrel $611m, +5%, with net selling price 14% lower; Otezla $481m, (18%), with rest of world (53%) after generic entry in certain European countries in Q1 2026; Prolia $632m (45%) and Xgeva $288m (47%); Nplate included $65m of US government orders against $90m.
• Pipeline (8-K Ex 99.1): DeLLphi 305: Imdelltra with Imfinzi cut the risk of death by 58% in first line maintenance small cell lung cancer; dazodalibep met the primary endpoint of the Phase 3 OASIZ 301 study in Sjogren's disease; Tezspire CROSSING positive in eosinophilic esophagitis; FDA accepted the BLA for ABP 206 (nivolumab biosimilar); Repatha EU label expanded on VESALIUS CV.
• Stated on the call (3 Nov 2026): six growth drivers +27% and more than 70% of product sales; 17 products annualizing above $1bn; Repatha US weekly new to brand prescriptions up more than 60%; Evenity close to 60% volume share of Japan's bone builder category; Tepezza (6%) attributed to a prior year inventory build; management does not expect a step down in the 2027 operating margin against 2026; Q3 was the first call of CFO Thomas Dittrich.
• Q2 2026 (8-K Ex 99.1 of 4 Aug 2026): total revenues $10.05bn, +10%; 22 products grew at least 10%; Enbrel $580m, (4%), with net selling price 22% lower; Prolia $759m, (32%); GAAP EPS $4.37, non GAAP EPS $6.29; revenue guidance raised to $38.2bn to $39.4bn.
• Q1 2026 (8-K Ex 99.1 of 30 Apr 2026): total revenues $8.62bn, +6%; product sales +4% on 9% volume growth, 2% lower net selling price and 2% lower inventory; Enbrel $320m, (37%); CDER proposed on 27 Apr 2026 to withdraw the Tavneos approval.

Management and CFO commentary

• Q3 2026 release, financial sections (8-K Ex 99.1 of 3 Nov 2026; Amgen files no separate CFO commentary): non GAAP cost of sales 19.3% of product sales against 18.2%, on profit share expense and sales mix; non GAAP R&D $2.11bn, +11%, on research and early pipeline spending incl. business development; non GAAP SG&A $1.68bn, (1%); non GAAP tax rate 15.9% against 18.2%.
• Cash and debt (same release): operating cash flow $4.2bn, capex $0.6bn, free cash flow $3.7bn against $4.2bn, when Q3 2025 benefited from rebate and collection timing; debt $54.0bn against $54.6bn at end 2025; cash $13.2bn against $9.1bn.
• CEO Robert Bradway (8-K Ex 99.1 of 3 Nov 2026): cites the commercial portfolio, clinical advances and the late stage pipeline as the basis for growth into the next decade; in the Q2 release he reported six growth drivers +26% and nearly 70% of product sales.
• Stated on the call (3 Nov 2026): FY2026 non GAAP operating margin about 45% to 46% of product sales; other revenues about $1.9bn; FY2026 capex about $2.6bn incl. North Carolina, Ohio and Puerto Rico; no step down expected in the 2027 operating margin against 2026.
• CFO change (8-K of 19 May 2026): Peter Griffith, CFO since 2020, stepped down on 31 Aug 2026 and stays until 31 Jan 2027; Thomas Dittrich, 62, joined on 1 Jul 2026 and became CFO on 1 Sep 2026.

7 Sector & Competitor Analysis

• Sector: large biopharmaceutical companies facing Medicare price setting, most favored nation pricing, 340B growth, Section 232 tariffs and biosimilar entry; Amgen has about three years of tariff relief from Dec 2025 tied to US manufacturing investment (10-Q Q3 2026).
• TTM Q3 2026 revenue growth: AMGN +8.2% against LLY 45.5%, REGN 36.3%, ABBV 10.3%, GILD 6.5%, BMY 5.2%.
• Operating margin: AMGN 32.4% against LLY 40.3%, ABBV 32.2%, REGN 28.8%, BMY 23.1%, GILD (7.6%); Gilead's margin reflects $11.8bn of acquired IPR&D. FCF margin AMGN 24.6% against GILD 44.5%, ABBV 28.3%, LLY 22.7%, REGN 22.6%, BMY 18.6%.
• Net debt: AMGN $40.8bn, ABBV $64.3bn, LLY $44.6bn, BMY $29.9bn, GILD $19.8bn; REGN holds net cash of $16.2bn.
• Valuation: EV/Sales AMGN 7.67x against LLY 15.90x, ABBV 8.62x, GILD 7.47x, REGN 4.82x and BMY 3.15x; P/E on TTM GAAP EPS AMGN 27.6x, on TTM non GAAP EPS 20.5x.
• Obesity: Lilly TTM revenues $86.5bn, +45.5%, mainly incretin medicines, with an operating margin of 40.3%; MariTide is in Phase 3 with no filed readout dates.

8 Material Events & Contracts

• 12 Forms 8-K between 4 Nov 2025 and 5 Nov 2026: five results releases (Ex 99.1), the Feb 2026 notes, the Kyowa Kirin termination, three officer and director filings (CTO, CFO, new director), the annual meeting vote results and the Item 1.05 cybersecurity incident; no Form 8-K/A.
• Cybersecurity incident (Item 1.05, 31 Jul 2026): Amgen identified unauthorized activity involving data in cloud environments hosted by third party providers; some data, incl. proprietary data and patient protected health information, was exfiltrated. Amgen deemed the incident material on 29 Jul 2026 based on the volume and possible sensitivity of the files and stated that, as of the filing date, it is not reasonably likely to have a material impact on its financial condition or results; no amended filing followed up to 5 Nov 2026.
• Kyowa Kirin (Item 1.02, 30 Jan 2026): Amgen ended its participation in rocatinlimab, and Kyowa Kirin takes over worldwide development and commercialization at its own cost.
• Funding: the $4.0bn of notes of 19 Feb 2026 and repayments of $3.9bn in 9M 2026 ($1.8bn term loan, $1.25bn of 2.60% 2026 notes and EUR 750m of 2.00% 2026 notes) left debt at $54.0bn on 30 Sep 2026 against $54.6bn at end 2025; Amgen also repurchased $324m of principal for $233m.

9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

• One class of common stock, one vote per share, no controlling holder. The 2026 proxy lists BlackRock (40.8m shares, 7.6%) and State Street (29.5m shares, 5.5%) above 5%, based on Schedules 13G/A; directors and executive officers as a group (21) held 2.73m shares incl. 1.85m obtainable within 60 days, under 1%. Proxy access at 3% for 20 holders; 15% threshold for written consent and special meetings.
• 2026 annual meeting (19 May 2026): all 12 directors elected with 94.8% (Greg Garland) to 99.3% (Brian Druker) of votes cast; Chairman and CEO Robert Bradway 95.0%; say on pay 97.1%; Ernst & Young 94.1%; the independent chair proposal received 17.7%. David W. Gibbs joined the board on 26 Oct 2026 (13 directors, 12 independent).
• Insiders, Forms 4 from 7 Nov 2025 to 13 Aug 2026 (none filed later): no open market purchases; open market sales by officers of about $29.3m, mostly after option exercises; the largest was EVP Operations Esteban Santos (54,792 shares at $379.12, about $20.8m, 26 Feb 2026). CEO Bradway exercised 119,782 options with shares withheld for tax and made no open market sale.
• Officers: CTO David Reese retired on 30 Jun 2026 and his responsibilities were split between James Bradner (EVP, R&D, AI and Data), Murdo Gordon (EVP, Global Markets and Policy) and the CFO; Peter Griffith stepped down as CFO on 31 Aug 2026 and stays as EVP until 31 Jan 2027; Thomas Dittrich, former CFO of Galderma, Shire and Sulzer and Amgen Chief Accounting Officer from 2010 to 2014, became CFO on 1 Sep 2026.

10 Risk Factors

• Item 1A of the FY2025 Form 10-K holds 28 risk factors, as in FY2024 (22,258 words against 22,916): none added or removed, 13 materially reworded and 15 unchanged. The rewording centres on US pricing (most favored nation, OB3, Medicare price setting), tariffs and AI. The 2026 Forms 10-Q add product specific text: Tavneos withdrawal proceedings, the CMS GENEROUS Medicaid model and a Krystexxa drug substance supplier in Israel.

How risk factors changed

• Comparison: 10-K FY2025 filed 13 Feb 2026 acc 0000318154-26-000010 against 10-K FY2024 filed 14 Feb 2025 acc 0000318154-25-000010.
• All 28 risk factor headings carry over; none added or removed; 13 materially reworded; total words fall 2.9% from 22,916 to 22,258 as dated examples are cut.
• Most favored nation pricing is named 21 times in FY2025 Item 1A against none a year earlier, and the OB3 law 9 times against none.
• Tariffs are named 23 times in 4 risk factors against 2 times in 2 factors in FY2024; AI 18 times against 13, now incl. AI orchestrated cyberattacks and state AI laws.
• COVID references fall from 10 to 1 and Horizon references from 15 to 7.
• Through 2026 the Forms 10-Q add product specific exposure: Tavneos withdrawal proceedings, the CMS GENEROUS Medicaid model, Otezla and possibly Repatha (as early as Jan 2029) Medicare price setting, and a Krystexxa drug substance supplier in Israel.

11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

• AMGN traded at $476.04 on 5 Nov 2026, +59.5% on the Oct 2025 month end close of $298.43, 1.3% below the 52 week high of $482.48 and 55.7% above the low of $305.80; market value $257.5bn.
• Valuation: 27.6x TTM GAAP EPS of $17.24; 20.5x TTM non GAAP EPS of $23.17; 20.4x the FY2026 non GAAP EPS guidance midpoint of $23.30; EV/Sales 7.67x; free cash flow yield 3.7%; dividend yield 2.1% on $10.08 a year.
• Scenario model: revenues grow from TTM Q3 2026 for three years to FY2029; margin is GAAP operating margin (32.4% TTM, 24.7% FY2025), which rises as acquisition amortization falls; interest and other expense $2.6bn a year (TTM interest expense $2.64bn), BeOne fair value changes excluded; 15% tax rate; 546m diluted shares; price equals FY2029 model GAAP EPS times exit P/E. EPS basis: the exit P/E multiples of 14x, 18x and 22x apply to model GAAP EPS; on the same basis the current P/E is 27.6x TTM GAAP EPS of $17.24 (20.5x on TTM non GAAP EPS of $23.17).

Critical factors and core assumptions

• Base: TTM Q3 2026 revenues $38.90bn; GAAP operating margin 32.4%; FY2026 revenue guidance $38.9bn to $39.7bn.
• Best case: +7.0% revenue CAGR as Repatha, Evenity, Tezspire, Uplizna and Imdelltra keep growing at 25% to 40% and MariTide launches by 2028 or 2029; 38% margin as amortization keeps falling; 22x P/E on model GAAP EPS.
• Base case: +4.0% revenue CAGR as growth products offset denosumab erosion and Medicare prices on Enbrel (2026) and Otezla (2027); 34% margin; 18x P/E on model GAAP EPS.
• Worst case: 0% revenue CAGR with MariTide delayed, Repatha selected for price setting from 2029, wider MFN and 340B discounts and an adverse Tax Court outcome; 28% margin; 14x P/E on model GAAP EPS.
• Share count 546m in all cases (no buybacks in 9M 2026); interest and other expense $2.6bn a year; tax rate 15%; quarterly dividend $2.52.

Scenarios, three years forward

Sensitivity analysis

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 5 November 2026.

Sources

All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Management statements come from the 8-K Ex 99.1 releases and the Forms 10-Q and 10-K; statements marked as stated on the call come from the Q3 2026 earnings call of 3 Nov 2026.