Pfizer Inc. (PFE), Financial Analysis

1 Revenue & Business Model

• Storyline: Pfizer replaces COVID revenue and products near US patent expiry with launches, acquisitions and cost cuts. COVID products fell from $56.74bn in FY2022 to $6.73bn in FY2025, and products with US basic patents expiring 2026 to 2028 earned $22.7bn (36.2%) of FY2025 revenue. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three revenue drivers: Eliquis and Vyndaqel, vaccines and COVID, and oncology; chapter 5 covers patent expiry exposure and acquisitions.
• One reportable segment: Biopharma $61.20bn in FY2025, 97.8% of revenue, with segment earnings of 47.9% of segment revenue before amortization, acquisition costs and corporate items; Pfizer CentreOne (contract manufacturing) $1.34bn. Since 1 Jan 2026 Biopharma has a US, an International and a Global Hospital and Biosimilars division.
• Revenue FY2021 $81.29bn, FY2022 $101.18bn, FY2025 $62.58bn; revenue excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid rose from $44.43bn to $55.85bn over FY2021 to FY2025, a 5.9% CAGR, or 5.4% with FY2021 on the 2024 royalty basis (FY2021 royalties of $857m added). TTM Q3 2026 revenue $63.62bn, +1.3%.
• Regions: United States 59.2% of FY2025 revenue against 36.6% in FY2021, when COVID vaccine sales went mostly abroad; in Q3 2026 US revenue was $10.60bn ((0.8%)) and international $5.98bn (+0.3%).
• Revenue types, Q3 2026: product revenue $13.26bn, alliance revenue $2.85bn (+24.1%, mainly Eliquis with BMS) and royalties $477m. Product revenue deductions were $27.3bn in 9M 2026, incl. Medicare rebates of $2.97bn against $3.36bn.

2 Eliquis and Vyndaqel: Medicare Price Setting and the 2028 Generic Date

• Eliquis $2.52bn in Q3 2026, +25.2%: US $1.81bn, +39.9%; international $715m, (1.1%), with generics and price erosion in some markets. 9M 2026 $7.11bn, +19.7%. Pfizer attributes the growth mainly to higher US net price from lower rebates and channel mix.
• Medicare price and patents: the Medicare negotiated price for Eliquis took effect on 1 Jan 2026 and also applies to 340B dispensing to Medicare patients; the composition patent expires Nov 2026, settled generic makers may launch on 1 Apr 2028 and the formulation patent runs to 2031. The Azurity formulation case settled in Oct 2026; a suit against TAHO (oral film) followed.
• Vyndaqel family $1.77bn in Q3 2026, +11.4%: US $1.09bn, +14.6%, international $687m. 9M 2026 $5.14bn, +9.5%.
• Vyndaqel exclusivity: US basic patent 2026 with an interim extension to Dec 2026 and a pending extension to 2028; Vyndamax settlements with Dexcel, Hikma and Cipla (Apr 2026) set an effective US expiry of 1 Jun 2031, and Pfizer expects US revenue to stay relatively stable from 2028 to mid 2031; litigation with Apotex continues.
• Weight in the group: the two products earned $14.34bn in FY2025, 22.9% of revenue, and 25.9% of Q3 2026 revenue.

How the anticoagulant and ATTR markets are changing

• Medicare price setting: CMS named Eliquis among the first 10 drugs for Medicare price setting in Aug 2023, with the price from 1 Jan 2026; the Part D redesign caps Medicare out of pocket costs at $2,100 in 2026 and requires manufacturer discounts of 10% in the initial phase and 20% in the catastrophic phase. An HHS 340B pilot from Jan 2027 is expected to include Eliquis.
• BMS view: BMS, which books most Eliquis sales, reported worldwide Eliquis revenue of $4.69bn in Q3 2026, +25.2%, with US +39% and international (7%), and guides 2026 growth of 20% to 25%.
• ATTR cardiomyopathy now has three marketed mechanisms: Pfizer's stabilizer Vyndaqel, Alnylam's RNAi silencer Amvuttra ($1.13bn in Q3 2026, +64.9%; 2026 TTR guidance $4.2bn to $4.5bn) and BridgeBio's stabilizer Attruby (US $253.2m, +134.2%).

3 Vaccines and COVID: Narrower US Recommendations and Lower COVID Revenue

• Prevnar family $1.56bn in Q3 2026, (10.2%): US $1.03bn, international $538m; Pfizer cites lower adult and pediatric vaccination rates and adult share losses in the US. The Prevnar 13 US basic patent expires in 2026; Prevnar 20 runs to 2035.
• COVID products $1.26bn in Q3 2026 against $2.38bn: Comirnaty $808m (29.8%), Paxlovid $449m (63.3%). 9M 2026 $1.96bn; at the 2026 expectation of about $4bn, Q4 2026 would be about $2.0bn against $2.49bn in Q4 2025.
• Abrysvo (RSV) $303m, +8.6%: international $162m above US $141m after the updated ACIP recommendation for older adults; FY2025 $1.03bn.
• Group weight: Prevnar, Comirnaty, Paxlovid and Abrysvo earned $3.12bn, 18.8% of Q3 2026 revenue, against 26.4% a year earlier.
• Pipeline: the 25 valent pneumococcal candidate matched Prevnar 20 safety in a Phase 2 infant study (Oct 2026) and is in Phase 3; the EMA validated the Pfizer and Valneva Lyme disease vaccine filing in Aug 2026.

How the vaccine and COVID markets are changing

• US recommendations: ACIP moved COVID vaccination for people 6 months and older to shared clinical decision making in Sep 2025; in Aug 2026 FDA approved the 2026 to 2027 Comirnaty formula only for adults 65 and older and people aged 5 to 64 with at least one high risk condition; in Jan 2026 the CDC reduced the immunizations routinely recommended for all US children.
• Effect on Pfizer: US Comirnaty revenue fell 43% and US Prevnar revenue 11% in 9M 2026 (8-K Ex 99 of 3 Nov 2026); the COVID expectation for 2026 moved from about $5bn (Dec 2025) to about $4bn (Aug 2026).
• Peers in Q3 2026: Merck Capvaxive, an adult pneumococcal rival to Prevnar 20, +7.8% to $263m; GSK vaccines (2.0%) and Sanofi vaccines (6.6%) at constant exchange rates; Merck Gardasil +14.1%.

4 Oncology: Padcev and Lorbrena Grow as Ibrance and Xtandi Face Price Setting

• Oncology $4.33bn in Q3 2026, +9.9%, 26.1% of revenue on the 2026 definition; 9M 2026 $12.32bn, +7.4%.
• Padcev $720m, +55.2% (US $696m), after FDA approvals with pembrolizumab in muscle invasive bladder cancer for cisplatin ineligible patients (Nov 2025) and regardless of cisplatin eligibility (Jul 2026). Seagen products (Padcev, Adcetris, Tukysa, Tivdak) earned $3.10bn in 9M 2026.
• Ibrance $1.08bn, +2.4%, and Xtandi $541m, (6.4%): both were selected for Medicare price setting with prices from 1 Jan 2027, and both US basic patents expire in 2027. FDA approved Talzenna with Xtandi in HRR mutated metastatic castration sensitive prostate cancer.
• Lorbrena $387m, +44.4% (international $237m); Braftovi and Mektovi $244m, +20.8%; Tukysa $142m; Elrexfio $83m.
• Write downs: $3.8bn IPR&D impairment for sigvotatug vedotin in Q2 2026 and $1.6bn for disitamab vedotin and $820m for Tukysa in Q4 2025.

How the oncology market is changing

• CDK4/6 inhibitors: Novartis Kisqali grew 37% to $1.82bn in Q3 2026, against Ibrance +2.4% to $1.08bn and Lilly Verzenio +2.8% to $1.51bn.
• PD1 x VEGF bispecific antibodies: Pfizer paid $1.25bn upfront for the 3SBio candidate PF 08634404 in 2025; Summit reported an overall survival benefit for ivonescimab against pembrolizumab in Sep 2026. Merck's key US Keytruda patent expires in 2028; Padcev is given with pembrolizumab in bladder cancer.
• Antibody drug conjugates: AstraZeneca Enhertu $969m, +36.0%; AbbVie Elahere $224m, +31.0%; Pfizer added 12 early ADC and multispecific programs from Innovent ($650m upfront, up to $9.85bn of milestones).
• Prostate cancer: J&J Erleada $1.02bn, +9.4%, in the quarter to 27 Sep 2026 against Pfizer's Xtandi share ((6.4%)).

5 Patent Expiry Exposure and Acquisitions: $22.7bn of FY2025 Revenue

• Six products with US basic patents expiring 2026 to 2028 earned $22.7bn in FY2025, 36.2% of revenue (10-K patent table): Eliquis $7.96bn, Vyndaqel family $6.38bn, Ibrance $4.12bn, Xtandi $2.19bn, Xeljanz $1.09bn and Adcetris $907m. Prevnar 13 (US 2026) is reported within the Prevnar family ($6.49bn) and Mektovi (US 2026) within Braftovi/Mektovi ($716m).
• Current run rate: the six products earned $6.36bn in Q3 2026, 38.4% of revenue, and $18.18bn in 9M 2026, +8.4%, as Eliquis and Vyndaqel still grew.
• Timing: Pfizer expects revenue from patent and exclusivity expiries to fall from 2026 through 2030, accelerating over the next few years; the 2026 effect is about $1.1bn, against about $1.5bn in the Dec 2025 guidance (10-Q Q3 2026).
• Price setting on the same products: Medicare negotiated prices apply to Eliquis from 2026 and to Ibrance and Xtandi from 2027; Xeljanz was selected for 2028 but carries no negotiated price because a generic is marketed.
• Later expiries: US basic patents run to 2033 for Padcev and Lorbrena, 2034 for Nurtec, 2035 for Prevnar 20, 2036 for Abrysvo and Cibinqo and 2041 for Paxlovid.

Acquisitions and licences behind the replacement plan

• Metsera (13 Nov 2025): $65.60 per share in cash plus a CVR of up to $20.65 per share (up to $2.3bn); fair value of consideration $8.0bn ($7.8bn net of cash) incl. $632m for the CVR; provisional IPR&D $7.9bn and goodwill $2.1bn; $6.0bn of notes issued on 21 Nov 2025. Ten Phase 3 studies of berobenatide planned in 2026; about $600m of annual cost synergies by end 2026.
• China sourced assets: 3SBio PD1 x VEGF bispecific ($1.25bn upfront, four pivotal trials planned for 2026), Innovent programs ($650m upfront) and Sciwind's ecnoglutide for obesity in China (launched 27 Apr 2026).
• Seagen (Dec 2023, $43.4bn net of cash): Padcev, Adcetris, Tukysa and Tivdak earned $3.10bn in 9M 2026; Adcetris is one of the six products with US patent expiry by 2028.
• Funding sources: the ViiV stake sale ($1.875bn, Mar 2026) and the Haleon exit (last $6.3bn in 2025).

6 Financial Analysis & Ratios

• Operating income in this report is computed, as Pfizer's income statement runs from costs and expenses to pretax income: revenue less cost of sales, SI&A, R&D, acquired IPR&D, amortization of intangibles and restructuring and acquisition costs. On that basis TTM Q3 2026 operating income was $13.64bn, 21.4% of revenue, against 22.8% in FY2025; before amortization and restructuring the TTM margin was 31.9%.
• Net income TTM $4.03bn, diluted EPS $0.70, after intangible impairments of $4.4bn (Q4 2025) and $4.3bn (9M 2026), legal charges of $1.05bn and contingent consideration increases of $709m in 9M 2026, partly offset by the $1.87bn ViiV gain. TTM adjusted EPS $3.05 (company measure).
• Cash flow TTM Q3 2026: operating cash flow $14.17bn, capex $2.39bn, free cash flow $11.79bn (18.5% of revenue), dividends $9.79bn, no buybacks; Q3 2026 operating cash flow $5.38bn.
• Balance sheet at 27 Sep 2026: debt $62.67bn, cash and short term investments $14.27bn, net debt $48.40bn; goodwill $71.46bn and intangibles $45.96bn against $53.73bn at end 2025; Pfizer equity $89.00bn. Ratings A2 and A, both stable; $7.0bn revolver to Oct 2031 undrawn.
• Capital returns: quarterly dividend $0.43 ($1.72 a year), declared again in Oct 2026; no buybacks in 2026 to date, with $3.3bn of authorization left; management expects leverage to stay near current levels or rise modestly through the exclusivity losses, then fall (Q3 2026 10-Q).

Cost structure and profitability

• Gross margin (before amortization) 75.7% in Q3 2026 against 74.9%, as COVID products fell and Eliquis net price rose; adjusted cost of sales 23.2% of revenue (company measure).
• R&D $3.02bn in Q3 2026, +18.5%, 18.2% of revenue, on oncology and obesity programs; acquired IPR&D $669m against $1.39bn (3SBio) a year earlier.
• SI&A $3.28bn, +2.9%, 19.8% of revenue; 9M 2026 SI&A $9.65bn against $9.63bn under the cost base program.
• Amortization $1.13bn and restructuring and acquisition costs $791m in Q3 2026; amortization was 7.4% of TTM revenue, mainly Seagen intangibles.
• Below operating income: other deductions net $288m in Q3 2026 against $517m, incl. interest expense of $662m; Q3 2026 tax $134m on pretax income of $3.39bn.
• Operating margin 22.1% in Q3 2026 against 23.1%; 9M 2026 23.4% against 25.3% in 9M 2025.

7 MD&A & Management Commentary

Q3 2026 results release and Form 10-Q (3 Nov 2026)

• Q3 2026: revenue $16.58bn, flat operationally (operational decrease $57m); excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid +7% operationally; launched and acquired products +32% operationally. Reported EPS $0.56 against $0.62; adjusted EPS $0.87, unchanged. Q3 points come from the 8-K Ex 99 release and the Form 10-Q.
• Products (8-K Ex 99): Eliquis +25% operationally on higher US net price from lower rebates and channel mix; Padcev +55% on first line urothelial cancer share and the muscle invasive bladder cancer launch; Vyndaqel family +12% operationally; Nurtec +33%; Lorbrena +43% operationally; Paxlovid down $771m, Comirnaty down $339m and Prevnar family down $180m.
• Costs: R&D +18% to $3.02bn on oncology and obesity programs; acquired IPR&D $669m incl. the $650m Innovent upfront; adjusted cost of sales 23.2% of revenue against 23.9%; adjusted tax rate 14.0% against 7.9%.
• Savings: a further $1.0bn of SI&A savings and $1.5bn of manufacturing savings for 2027 to 2029; the cost base program targets about $6.7bn of net savings through 2029 ($5.7bn by end 2026) and the manufacturing program about $3.0bn; one time costs for the new phases are about $2.0bn (cost base) and about $4.0bn (manufacturing).
• Capital deployed in 9M 2026: $8.3bn of internal R&D, about $850m of business development and $7.3bn of dividends ($1.29 per share); no buybacks.
• Pipeline (8-K Ex 99): Elrexfio MagnetisMM 32 met its progression free survival endpoint; label expansions for Talzenna with Xtandi and for Tukysa in first line HER2 positive maintenance; Phase 2 infant data for the 25 valent pneumococcal candidate; EMA validated the Lyme disease vaccine filing.
• Q2 2026 (4 Aug 2026): revenue $15.03bn, +3%; loss per share ($0.04) after $4.3bn of impairments, mainly $3.8bn for sigvotatug vedotin after its Phase 3 lung cancer results; COVID revenue expectation cut to about $4bn; Phase 2b data for berobenatide support 10 Phase 3 studies in 2026.
• Q1 2026 (5 May 2026): revenue $14.45bn, +5%; Vyndamax patent settlements set an effective US expiry of 1 Jun 2031; ViiV exit completed; ecnoglutide approved and launched in China.

Management and CFO commentary

• Q3 2026 release (8-K Ex 99 of 3 Nov 2026): products excluding Comirnaty and Paxlovid +7% operationally, as CFO Guegan noted; adjusted gross margin 76.8% (100% less adjusted cost of sales of 23.2%); adjusted R&D guidance raised to $10.8bn to $11.8bn; no buybacks assumed in 2026; about $1.1bn of 2026 revenue lost to exclusivity expiries.
• FY2026 guidance release (8-K Ex 99.1 of 16 Dec 2025): COVID products about $5bn in 2026 against about $6.5bn expected for 2025; about $1.5bn of exclusivity losses; operational growth of about 4% at the midpoint excluding COVID and exclusivity loss products; adjusted tax rate about 15% against about 11%.
• CEO Bourla, 8-K Ex 99 of 3 Nov 2026: cites the obesity program and milestones in oncology, immunology and vaccines; the release lists eight key pivotal study starts, one pivotal readout and two regulatory decisions.
• CFO change (8-K of 18 Jun and 3 Nov 2026): Denton left on 15 Aug 2026 for a role in consumer goods; Guegan, 55, interim from 16 Aug 2026, CFO and EVP from 1 Nov 2026.

8 Sector & Competitor Analysis

• Sector: large biopharmaceutical companies facing US exclusivity losses, Medicare price setting, most favored nation pricing and Section 232 tariffs; Pfizer, Merck and Gilead each agreed three year tariff relief tied to US investment and pricing terms.
• TTM Q3 2026 like for like: revenue growth PFE +1.3% against LLY +45.5%, ABBV +10.3% (Q3 year on year), GILD +6.5% and MRK +4.9%; operating margin PFE 21.4% against LLY 40.3%, ABBV 32.2%, MRK 8.1% and GILD (7.6%), the last two after large acquired IPR&D charges.
• Free cash flow margin: PFE 18.5% against GILD 44.5%, ABBV 28.3%, MRK 24.1% and LLY 22.7%; net debt PFE $48.4bn, ABBV $64.3bn, MRK $46.8bn, LLY $44.6bn and GILD $19.8bn.
• Valuation at 4 Nov 2026: EV/Sales PFE 3.48x against LLY 15.99x, ABBV 8.62x, GILD 7.53x and MRK 6.12x; P/E on TTM reported EPS PFE 43.4x, on TTM adjusted EPS 10.0x. Pfizer's dividend yield is 5.7%.
• Obesity: Eli Lilly TTM revenue $86.5bn, +45.5%, operating margin 40.3%; Pfizer entered through Metsera ($8.0bn, Nov 2025) and plans 10 Phase 3 studies of berobenatide in 2026.

9 Material Events & Contracts

• 12 Forms 8-K between 4 Nov 2025 and 4 Nov 2026: five results releases (Ex 99), the FY2026 guidance release and its reaffirmation, the Metsera completion, the Nov 2025 notes offering, the annual meeting vote results and two CFO filings; no Form 8-K/A.
• Business development: Metsera ($8.0bn fair value incl. the CVR) for obesity; licences from 3SBio ($1.25bn upfront) and Innovent ($650m upfront) for oncology and Sciwind (up to $495m) for ecnoglutide in China; Pfizer exited ViiV for $1.875bn and Haleon in 2025 ($6.3bn last tranche).
• Funding: the $6.0bn notes of 21 Nov 2025 were issued for general corporate purposes incl. the Metsera acquisition and refinancing; total debt fell from $64.80bn at end 2025 to $62.67bn at 27 Sep 2026 after $1.25bn of repayments in 9M 2026.

10 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

• One class of common stock, one vote per share, no controlling holder. The 2026 proxy lists Vanguard (8.97%), BlackRock (7.7%) and State Street (5.1%) above 5%, based on Schedules 13G/A from early 2024; directors and executive officers held under 1%.
• 2026 annual meeting (23 Apr 2026): all 12 directors elected with 82.7% (Joseph J. Echevarria) to 97.8% (Cyrus Taraporevala) of votes cast; Chairman and CEO Albert Bourla 92.3%; say on pay 88.0%; the independent chair proposal received 28.8%.
• Insiders, 12 months to 4 Nov 2026: three open market purchases for about $2.96m by CEO Bourla ($1.0m at $26.34 on 12 Aug 2026) and directors Ronald Blaylock and Mortimer Buckley (5 Aug 2026), after the Q2 2026 results; open market sales of $0.13m by the Controller. Other Forms 4 cover option exercises, tax withholding and award grants.
• Officers: CFO David Denton left on 15 Aug 2026; Cecile Guegan, at Pfizer since the 2009 Wyeth acquisition and leader of the Seagen integration, became interim CFO and was appointed CFO from 1 Nov 2026.

11 Risk Factors

• Item 1A of the FY2025 Form 10-K holds 24 risk factors, as in FY2024 (12,511 words against 11,301): none added or removed and 7 materially reworded, led by drug pricing (MFN, TrumpRx), AI and vaccine policy. The 2026 Forms 10-Q add no new risk factor text.

How risk factors changed

• Comparison: 10-K FY2025 filed 26 Feb 2026 acc 0000078003-26-000026 against 10-K FY2024 filed 27 Feb 2025 acc 0000078003-25-000054.
• All 24 risk factor headings carry over; none added or removed; total words rise 10.7% from 11,301 to 12,511.
• AI is named 25 times in 3 risk factors in the FY2025 10-K against 6 times in 2 a year earlier; the cybersecurity factor grows by 283 words, mostly AI text.
• US pricing policy drives the largest edits: MFN is named 7 times in 3 factors (none a year earlier), TrumpRx once, and the pricing factor grows by 294 words.
• Vaccine policy is new risk text: the CDC cut to routine childhood immunizations (Jan 2026) appears in 2 factors and the narrower COVID vaccine recommendations in the COVID factor.
• Concentration and competition factors now name Metsera and Seagen as concentrations in obesity and oncology, competitors from China, and a revenue decline from exclusivity losses in 2026 to 2030 that Pfizer expects to accelerate.

12 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

• PFE traded at $30.39 on 4 Nov 2026, +23.3% on the Oct 2025 month end close of $24.65, 2.2% below the 52 week high of $31.06 and 28.7% above the low of $23.62; market value $173.2bn.
• Valuation: 43.4x TTM reported EPS of $0.70, which carries the impairments; 10.0x TTM adjusted EPS of $3.05; 10.1x the FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $3.00; EV/Sales 3.48x; free cash flow yield 6.8%; dividend yield 5.7% on $1.72 a year.
• Scenario model: revenue grows from TTM Q3 2026 for three years to FY2029; margin is operating margin before amortization and restructuring (31.9% TTM, 33.0% FY2025); interest and other expense $2.7bn a year (TTM interest expense $2.71bn); 15% tax rate (FY2026 adjusted guidance); 5.74bn diluted shares; price equals FY2029 EPS times exit P/E.

Critical factors and core assumptions

• Base: TTM Q3 2026 revenue $63.62bn; operating margin 21.4% reported, 31.9% before amortization and restructuring; FY2026 revenue guidance $62.0bn to $64.0bn.
• Best case: +2.0% revenue CAGR as launches, Seagen products and obesity offset the exclusivity losses; 36% margin; 13x P/E.
• Base case: (2.0%) revenue CAGR as the $22.7bn of FY2025 revenue with US patent expiry 2026 to 2028 and Medicare prices outweigh launches; 31% margin; 11x P/E.
• Worst case: (6.0%) revenue CAGR with early Eliquis generics, faster Vyndaqel erosion, obesity setbacks and lower vaccine demand; 24% margin; 9x P/E.
• Share count 5.74bn in all cases (no buybacks, as in FY2026 guidance); interest and other expense $2.7bn a year; tax rate 15%.

Scenarios, three years forward

Sensitivity analysis

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 4 November 2026.

Sources

All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Management commentary comes from the 8-K Ex 99 releases and the Forms 10-Q and 10-K.