Anthropic, PBC (ANT), Financial Analysis

1 Revenue & Business Model

• Product: frontier AI models (Claude) sold through the Claude Platform and applications; consumer plans are now listed as Claude Pro, Max and Ultra (Ultra is new in the S-1/A), and Claude Security joins the list of new products.
• Revenue FY2025 $4.6bn; 9M 2026 $33.2bn and Q3 2026 $17.0bn. Revenue rose in every quarter from $376m in Q1 2025.
• Revenue type in 9M 2026: consumption based 79% and subscription 21% ($26.3bn and $6.9bn); 6M 2026 was 80% and 20%.
• United States 71% of 9M 2026 revenue by billing address ($23.5bn); international $9.8bn.
• Revenue through cloud marketplaces 44% of 9M 2026 revenue (48% in 6M 2026 and 9M 2025); cloud providers held 52% of receivables at 30 Sep 2026 against 58% at 30 Jun 2026.
• Customers at 30 Sep 2026: more than 11,900 above $100k of TTM revenue, generating $26.1bn or 74% of TTM revenue (blank in the S-1); about 40 million customers below $100k produced the other 26%. More than 1,900 customers above $1m; net revenue retention about 900%; top five customers about 25% of 9M 2026 revenue.
• Pricing: price reductions in new model versions and contractual discounts lowered revenue by about $600m from Q2 to Q3 2026, against about $70m from Q3 to Q4 2025.

2 What Changed: S-1 against S-1/A

• Period roll forward: the six months to 30 Jun 2026 are replaced by the nine months to 30 Sep 2026, Q3 2026 is added to the quarterly table, the balance sheet moves to 30 Sep 2026 and subsequent events are evaluated through 2 Nov 2026. FY2023 to FY2025 figures are unchanged.
• Blanks filled: aggregate committed spend, the contractual obligations table, the actual capitalization column, net tangible book value, option counts and revenue from customers above $100k.
• Still blank: price range, shares offered by the company and by selling stockholders, underwriters' option, proceeds, underwriting discount, pro forma columns, ownership percentages and run rate revenue at 31 Oct 2026; the underwriting agreement and legal opinion are still to be filed.
• Restatement: quarterly adjusted net income now includes an income tax effects line; Q2 2026 moves from $2.98bn to $2.74bn and earlier quarters by $2m to $5m.
• Q3 2026 against Q2 2026: revenue +$5.4bn; compute and infrastructure +$4.3bn to $9.9bn (58% of revenue against 48%); other operating and administrative +$2.6bn, which includes the donation matching charges; personnel ($146m) on lower stock compensation as certain option awards fully vested.
• Unchanged in substance: use of proceeds, related person transactions, executive compensation and the governance structure (Long Term Benefit Trust, Class T, Class F, public benefit corporation) changed in wording only.

Filings compared

What changed, S-1 against S-1/A

Offering terms

3 Compute Commitments and Counterparties

• Aggregate committed spend about $895.4bn at and after 30 Sep 2026, substantially all compute and infrastructure. The S-1 left the figure blank; at 30 Jun 2026 it listed purchase commitments of $265.6bn and leases not yet commenced of $321.4bn.
• Components: leases not yet commenced $451.2bn, the contractual obligations table $320.0bn (purchase commitments $313.8bn), short term commitments $17.4bn and commitments signed after 30 Sep 2026 of $100.2bn plus $6.6bn short term.
• Timing: $69.8bn is due within 12 months of 30 Sep 2026 (of which $4.3bn contingent) and about $447.5bn before 31 Dec 2030; substantially all of the remainder falls in 2031 to 2045.
• Conditionality: $213.8bn (23.9% of the aggregate) relates to arrangements with exercisable termination rights or contingent conditions such as the counterparty's ability to secure financing, facilities or regulatory approvals.
• Excluded: compute arrangements without a fixed dollar commitment, estimated at $150bn to $175bn and payable after capacity is delivered, and further TPU compute for 2028 to 2031 estimated at $125bn to $150bn.
• Against revenue: the aggregate equals 13.2x Q3 2026 annualized revenue of $67.8bn and 6.8x cash and short term investments (derived).
• New risk language: compute providers that depend on third party financing or credit support may delay, reprice, reduce or not deliver contracted capacity (Risk Factors p32).
• Consolidated special purpose subsidiaries: restricted assets $2.7bn and liabilities $2.8bn at 30 Sep 2026, against $296m and $328m at 30 Jun 2026; certain data center and power developers are unconsolidated variable interest entities.

Composition and timing

Counterparties

4 Financial Analysis & Ratios

• Gross margin 85.5% in 9M 2026 against 29.4% in 9M 2025 (derived from cost of revenue in the functional expense note; Q3 2026 85.7%, derived from the 9M and 6M figures).
• Compute and infrastructure $18.8bn in 9M 2026, 57% of revenue against 172%; Q3 2026 $9.9bn incl. $5.0bn under short term commitments ($6.5bn in 9M 2026).
• Sales, marketing and partnerships fell from 22% of revenue in Q1 2026 to 14% in Q3 2026 on a lower share of revenue through channel partners and changed distribution terms.
• Operating cash flow $6.6bn in 9M 2026 against ($2.0bn); capex $925m; derived free cash flow $5.6bn. Proceeds from preferred stock $110.4bn.
• Balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026: cash and short term investments $131.8bn; total liquidity $146.6bn incl. $14.8bn available under the credit facility; convertible notes at fair value $130.5bn on $6.2bn principal; preferred stock $157.5bn in mezzanine equity; stockholders' deficit ($149.9bn).
• Tax: provision of $396m in Q3 2026 on higher US state and foreign income taxes; a valuation allowance is kept in all jurisdictions except Ireland.
• Stock compensation $3.3bn in 9M 2026; unrecognized RSU expense $32.3bn, of which $8.2bn would have been recognized at once had the IPO occurred on 30 Sep 2026 (S-1: $26.6bn and $2.9bn at 30 Jun 2026).

From operating loss to net loss

Cost structure and profitability

• Compute and infrastructure is the largest cost: $18.8bn in 9M 2026 (57% of revenue); Q3 2026 $9.9bn, 58% of revenue against 148% in Q3 2025 and 48% in Q2 2026.
• By function in 9M 2026: cost of revenue 14.5% of revenue against 70.6% in 9M 2025; R&D 57.9% against 141.2%; sales and marketing 19.9%; G&A 11.5%.
• Revenue per dollar of compute: 2.08x in Q2 2026 and 1.72x in Q3 2026 (derived), against 0.40x in Q1 2025.
• Other operating and administrative $3.6bn in Q3 2026 against $1.0bn in Q2 2026, incl. $2.0bn of non cash donation matching charges.
• Stock compensation is the main gap between GAAP and adjusted results in 9M 2026 ($3.3bn, 9.8% of revenue), with non cash charitable contributions of $2.1bn; adjusted operating margin 12% against GAAP (4%) as filed.

5 MD&A & Management Commentary

Management discussion in the S-1/A

• Q3 2026 operating loss: management attributes the $567m loss to $5.0bn of compute under short term commitments and $2.0bn of non cash donation matching charges; adjusted operating income rose from $2.2bn to $2.5bn.
• Compute timing: compute is procured 12 to 18 months ahead and is largely fixed near term; compute expense rose to 58% of revenue in Q3 2026 from 48% as additional compute was delivered. Management expects operating results to fluctuate from quarter to quarter with the amount of incremental compute received.
• Revenue drivers named: higher usage across model versions; price reductions of about $600m from Q2 to Q3 2026. Model versions released in the six months to 30 Sep 2026 produced over 80% of Q3 2026 revenue (same statement in the S-1).
• Donation matching: expense of $2.1bn in 9M 2026, about 6% of operating expenses (FY2025 $541m, about 4%); 28.0m Class N shares were issued in Oct 2026 to settle the obligation accrued at 30 Sep 2026.
• Other income: other expense of $309m, $8.4bn and $1.6bn in Q1 to Q3 2026, mainly from the initial recognition and fair value change of the partner financing arrangements (Google and Amazon Series G‑2 purchase commitments and the AMD put option).
• Interest rate sensitivity: a 100 basis point move changes the market value of cash equivalents and investments by $310m (S-1: not material).

6 Sector & Competitor Analysis

• Growth: ANT revenue +1,127% in Q3 2026 year on year, against Nvidia +105.9%, CoreWeave +112.5%, Palantir +92.8%, Snowflake +35.1%, Oracle +29.6%, Meta +26.1%, Alphabet +24.2% and Microsoft +17.8% (latest reported periods as used in the original post).
• Margins: ANT TTM Q3 2026 gross margin 83.6% (derived) and operating margin (11.6%), against TTM Q2 2026 79.0% and (33.6%) in the S-1; Nvidia 74.7% and 65.2%, Palantir 84.8% and 42.8%, Microsoft 67.9% and 46.8%.
• Valuation reference: at the Series H price ANT is at 24.5x TTM EV/Sales and 12.8x Q3 2026 annualized revenue (S-1 basis: 43.9x and 18.7x), against Palantir 75.7x, Snowflake 21.4x, Nvidia 17.1x and Microsoft 11.6x TTM.
• Suppliers and competitors overlap: Amazon, Google and Microsoft are investors, customers, distribution channels, compute suppliers and competitors; SpaceXAI supplies up to $120.5bn of compute and reports its AI business as the SI segment of SpaceX.

7 Material Events & Contracts

• Filings since the S-1: the S-1/A of 2 Nov 2026 is the only filing under central index key 2130357 after the S-1; no Form 8-K, free writing prospectus or correspondence is on file.
• Exhibits: Ex 3.1 (certificate of incorporation as currently in effect) and Ex 4.4 (Broadcom note purchase agreement of 31 Mar 2026, amended 26 Oct 2026) are refiled; the auditor consents are new; the other exhibits are incorporated from the S-1.
• Lockups: the staged release schedule tied to the FY2026 and Q1 2027 earnings releases is kept with amounts blank; a carve out for purchases in any concurrent private placement is added.

8 Ownership, Voting Power & Offering Structure

• Voting control unchanged: one Class F share held by Anthropic Founders, LLC carries 50.1% of total voting power; the Class F share is now issued immediately prior to completion of the offering (S-1: upon completion). The Long Term Benefit Trust holds the Class T share and elects the Class T directors, a board majority.
• Retail allocation (new): part of the Class A shares is expected to be offered at the IPO price through Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, Trade‑PMR, SoFi and E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, acting as selling group members; E*TRADE is an affiliate of Morgan Stanley.
• Principal stockholders: percentages still blank; the share base now includes the Initial Public Benefit Issuance; Sam McCandlish's beneficial ownership rises from 231.8m to 243.4m shares; Jack Clark's shares are held by a trust over which he has sole voting control.
• Underwriters: the same 22 firms led by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley; Societe Generale moves to the last tier on the cover. The EU prospectus is expected to be approved by the German BaFin.
• Dilution: net tangible book value at 30 Sep 2026 ($150.6bn), or ($68.47) per share; dilution tables now include Class N as well as Class A shares.

9 Risk Factors

• No risk factor heading was added or removed in the S-1/A. Six headings carry wording edits only (for example "our Company Purpose" became "the Company Purpose" in three public benefit corporation risks). The changes of substance are in the body text, listed below with S-1/A page numbers.

10 Reference Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

• Reference price: $58.90 per common share equivalent (derived), the Series H price of $589.0095 per preferred share (May to June 2026) at the filed 10:1 conversion ratio; the S-1/A files no price range. The April 2026 tender offer price was $25.91 per Class A share.
• At the Series H price about 16.94bn fully diluted shares imply about $998bn (derived): the share count follows from the 846.8m Initial Public Benefit Issuance shares being 5% of fully diluted shares at 30 Jun 2026; enterprise value about $866bn after $131.8bn of cash and short term investments.
• Scenario model as in the original post with a new revenue base: Q3 2026 annualized revenue of $67.8bn replaces the Q2 2026 annualized $46.2bn; growth rates, multiples and share count changes are unchanged.

Critical factors and core assumptions

• Revenue base: Q3 2026 revenue of $17.0bn annualized to $67.8bn; TTM revenue $35.3bn.
• Best case: 80% revenue CAGR, 15x EV/Sales, share count +6%.
• Base case: 45% revenue CAGR, 10x EV/Sales, share count +6%.
• Worst case: 10% revenue CAGR, 5x EV/Sales, share count +8%.
• Cash and short term investments $131.8bn held constant; fully diluted base 16.94bn shares; reference price $58.90 (Series H).

Scenarios, three years forward

Sensitivity analysis

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 5 November 2026.

Sources

All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server: the S-1/A of 2 Nov 2026, the S-1 of 26 Oct 2026 and the filings listed below.