November 1, 2026·34 min read
Coca-Cola (KO), Financial Analysis
Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.
Net operating revenues Q3 2026
$13.4bn
+7.4% year on year (Q3 2025 $12.5bn)
Operating costs Q3 2026
$8.92bn
+5.2% year on year (Q3 2025 $8.47bn)
Operating margin Q3 2026
33.4%
+1.4 pts year on year (Q3 2025 32.0%)
Key findings
- Volume led the quarter. Net operating revenues $13.38bn in Q3 2026, +7.4%; organic revenue +7% with unit case volume +5%, concentrate sales +7% and price/mix +1% (pricing +4 points, mix (3) points).
- Latin America and Bottling Investments grew fastest. Latin America revenue +24.5% with price/mix +7%; Bottling Investments volume +8% and operating income $205m against $57m; North America revenue +2.5% on flat volume.
- Margins widened. Operating margin 33.4% against 32.0%; gross margin 63.2% against 61.5%; costs +5.2% against revenue +7.4%. EPS $0.93, +8%; comparable EPS $0.91, +11%.
- Guidance raised a third time in 2026. Comparable EPS growth at least 11% (February: 7% to 8%), organic revenue at least 5% and free cash flow at least $13.0bn (February: about $12.2bn); 9M 2026 free cash flow $11.4bn.
- Portfolio and one off items shape 2027. Sale of the Africa bottler (CCBA) expected to close in Q4 2026, a 2027 headwind of about 8 points to comparable revenue and about 2 points to comparable EPS; $6.0bn IRS deposit with the Eleventh Circuit appeal pending; fairlife ransomware event in July 2026.
- Shares at $94.28 on 30 Oct 2026, +34.9% since the Dec 2025 close, 27.8x TTM EPS and 28.4x TTM comparable EPS. Model prices in three years: base $87, best $111, worst $57.
Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2021 to FY2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 2025 to Q3 2026, the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the quarterly earnings releases (Ex 99.1) with their outlook sections, which serve as the CFO commentary, the leadership releases (Ex 99.1), the letters to the incoming CEO and Executive Chairman (Ex 10.1, 10.2) and the North America separation agreement (Ex 10.1), the proxy statement of 2026 and the Form 8-K Item 5.07 vote results, Schedules 13G, the Berkshire Hathaway Form 13F and Forms 4 on the record for central index key 21344, together with the Forms 10-Q, 8-K and 6-K of PepsiCo, Keurig Dr Pepper, Monster Beverage, Celsius Holdings and Coca-Cola FEMSA. Accession numbers appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are last trades of 30 October 2026.
1 Revenue & Business Model
- Storyline: volume growth outside North America carries revenue while pricing slows and the company sells bottlers. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three revenue drivers: global volume, price/mix and concentrate sales; North America incl. fairlife; and the international segments with Bottling Investments.
- Two operating models: concentrate operations sell beverage concentrates and syrups to bottling partners, $28.46bn or 59.4% of FY2025 revenue; finished product operations (company owned bottlers and other finished beverage businesses) $19.48bn.
- Six segments: North America $19.59bn of FY2025 segment revenue with $5.07bn of operating income; EMEA $11.51bn; Latin America $6.33bn; Asia Pacific $5.64bn; Bottling Investments $5.74bn with $426m operating income. Global Ventures is no longer a separate segment from the FY2025 10-K (2023 and 2024 recast).
- Revenue FY2021 $38.7bn to FY2025 $47.9bn, a 5.5% CAGR; TTM Q3 2026 $51.1bn. FY2025 United States revenue $19.13bn (39.9%), international $28.81bn.
- One bottler accounted for 10% of FY2025 net operating revenues (EMEA and Asia Pacific segments), a disclosure new in the FY2025 10-K.
Table 1.1 Segment revenue and operating income, FY2023 to FY2025 ($bn)
| Segment | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America revenue ($bn) | 16.97 | 18.87 | 19.59 |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa revenue ($bn) | 10.84 | 10.96 | 11.51 |
| Latin America revenue ($bn) | 5.83 | 6.47 | 6.33 |
| Asia Pacific revenue ($bn) | 5.54 | 5.59 | 5.64 |
| Bottling Investments revenue ($bn) | 7.86 | 6.22 | 5.74 |
| Corporate revenue ($bn) | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Eliminations revenue ($bn) | (1.43) | (1.16) | (1.01) |
| North America operating income ($bn) | 4.63 | 4.56 | 5.07 |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa operating income ($bn) | 4.32 | 4.26 | 4.30 |
| Latin America operating income ($bn) | 3.44 | 3.79 | 3.74 |
| Asia Pacific operating income ($bn) | 2.06 | 2.16 | 2.04 |
| Bottling Investments operating income ($bn) | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| Corporate operating income ($bn) | (3.72) | (5.26) | (1.82) |
Segment revenue includes intersegment sales; eliminations bring the segment total to consolidated revenue. FY2023 and FY2024 recast in the FY2025 Form 10-K. Corporate operating loss FY2024 includes other operating charges of $4.16bn.
Table 1.2 Segment revenue and operating margin, last five quarters
| Segment | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America revenue ($bn) | 5.25 | 4.94 | 4.89 | 5.41 | 5.39 |
| North America operating margin (%) | 32.0 | 8.6 | 32.8 | 31.3 | 32.8 |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa revenue ($bn) | 3.00 | 2.68 | 3.01 | 3.24 | 3.10 |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa operating margin (%) | 36.6 | 30.2 | 41.8 | 40.4 | 37.7 |
| Latin America revenue ($bn) | 1.57 | 1.70 | 1.68 | 1.84 | 1.96 |
| Latin America operating margin (%) | 57.0 | 58.0 | 61.9 | 64.0 | 58.8 |
| Asia Pacific revenue ($bn) | 1.51 | 1.14 | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.56 |
| Asia Pacific operating margin (%) | 34.6 | 21.9 | 35.5 | 41.5 | 36.0 |
| Bottling Investments revenue ($bn) | 1.35 | 1.52 | 1.64 | 1.53 | 1.52 |
| Bottling Investments operating margin (%) | 4.2 | 12.6 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 13.5 |
Q4 2025 equals FY2025 less 9M 2025. North America Q4 2025 includes the $960m BodyArmor trademark impairment.
Table 1.3 Growth metrics, last four quarters
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit case volume growth (%) | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Concentrate sales growth (%) | 4 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| Price/mix (%) | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Organic revenue growth, non GAAP (%) | 5 | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Net operating revenues growth, reported (%) | 2 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 7.4 |
Volume, concentrate sales, price/mix and organic revenue as stated in the Forms 8-K Ex 99.1 (Q4 2025 reported growth as stated, rounded); Q1 2026 had six more days and Q4 2026 has six fewer days than the prior year quarter.
2 Global Volume, Price/Mix and Concentrate Sales
- Organic revenue growth (non GAAP) +7% in Q3 2026, built from concentrate sales +7% and price/mix +1%; unit case volume +5%. 9M 2026: volume +4%, organic revenue +8%, reported revenue +8.6% to $39.23bn.
- Price/mix slowed from +4% in FY2025 to +2% in Q1 and Q2 2026 and +1% in Q3 2026. In Q3 2026 pricing added 4 points and mix took 3 points.
- Category volume Q3 2026: sparkling +5%, Trademark Coca-Cola +5%, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar +16%; water, sports, coffee and tea +5% with water +8%; juice, dairy and plant based beverages flat.
- FY2025 volume was even and organic revenue +5%, so the 2026 recovery in volume is the main change in the revenue mix; management's long term targets are volume and price/mix of 2% to 3% each a year.
Table 2.1 Q3 2026 unit case volume by category
| Category | Volume growth (%) |
|---|---|
| Sparkling | +5 |
| Trademark Coca-Cola | +5 |
| Coca-Cola Zero Sugar | +16 |
| Juice, dairy, plant | 0 |
| Water, sports, coffee, tea | +5 |
| Water | +8 |
How the nonalcoholic beverage industry is changing
- Volume growth moved to emerging markets: KO volume +5% in Q3 2026 led by India, China, Mexico and Brazil, while PepsiCo beverage volume rose 3% in the quarter to 5 Sep 2026 and PepsiCo Beverages North America beverage volume fell 2%.
- Pricing decelerates: KO price/mix +1% in Q3 2026 against +4% in FY2025; PepsiCo organic revenue +3.1% in the same period; Keurig Dr Pepper legacy business price +4.2% and volume/mix +3.1% in Q2 2026.
- Energy drinks gain shelf share: Monster net sales +20.2% to $2.54bn in Q2 2026; Celsius said its brands supplied about 30% of the $640m growth of the US zero sugar energy category in Q2 2026.
- Portfolio reshaping: KO sells bottlers (CCBA) and studies an India bottling IPO; Keurig Dr Pepper bought JDE Peet's and books costs for a subsequent spin of its coffee business (Global Coffee Co.).
Table 2.2 Beverage companies, latest reported quarter
| Company | Line and period | Filed detail | Revenue | Growth (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo | Net revenue, Q3 2026 (12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026) | Organic revenue +3.1%; core operating margin 16.9% | $25.27bn | 5.6 | 16.9 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper | Net sales, Q2 2026 | Includes JDE Peet's; legacy KDP +7.3% with price +4.2% and volume/mix +3.1%; adjusted operating margin 20.2% | $7.31bn | 75.6 | n/a |
| Monster Beverage | Net sales, Q2 2026 | Operating income $740.4m; gross margin 55.9% | $2.54bn | 20.2 | 29.2 |
| Celsius Holdings | Revenue, Q2 2026 | Alani Nu about $364.4m; gross margin 48.1% against 51.5% | $817.9m | 10.6 | n/a |
Periods differ: PepsiCo 12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026; Keurig Dr Pepper, Monster and Celsius Q2 2026, as their Q3 2026 releases were not filed by 31 Oct 2026. PepsiCo core operating margin is non GAAP.
3 North America: Flat Volume, Share Gains and fairlife
- North America revenue $5.39bn in Q3 2026, +2.5%; operating income $1.77bn, +5.1%, margin 32.8%. Unit case volume flat after +3% in Q2 2026; price/mix +1% after +4%; organic revenue +3%.
- Mix inside the segment: Trademark Coca-Cola grew while water, sports drinks, coffee and tea declined; value share gains led by juice, value added dairy incl. fairlife and Trademark Coca-Cola (8-K Ex 99.1).
- fairlife: final milestone payment $6.17bn in March 2025; US production temporarily suspended after the ransomware event of Jul 2026; fairlife revenue is not disclosed separately.
- BodyArmor: trademark impaired by $960m in Q4 2025 on lower projected results. North America leadership: President Jennifer Mann left on 31 Jul 2026; CFO John Murphy leads the unit on an interim basis.
How the North American beverage market is changing
- Volume is flat to lower for the large carbonated soft drink suppliers: KO North America volume flat in Q3 2026; PepsiCo Beverages North America organic revenue flat, with organic volume taking 3 points and pricing adding 3 points (beverage volume (2%)), its reported growth of 5.2% coming from acquisitions ($428m).
- Growth sits with energy and smaller brands: Keurig Dr Pepper US Refreshment Beverages +10.0% at a 29.3% segment margin and Celsius North America +10.7% in Q2 2026; Celsius reports about 20.1% dollar share of US energy drinks in tracked channels.
- Health policy: KO added US federal and state initiatives on childhood chronic disease and possible SNAP restrictions on its products to its obesity risk factor in the FY2025 10-K.
Table 3.1 North American beverage businesses, latest reported quarter
| Company | Line and period | Filed detail | Revenue | Growth (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo | PepsiCo Beverages North America net revenue, Q3 2026 (12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026) | Organic flat; organic volume (3) points and effective net pricing +3 points; beverage volume (2%) | $7.71bn | 5.2 | n/a |
| Keurig Dr Pepper | U.S. Refreshment Beverages net sales, Q2 2026 | Segment operating income $857m | $2.93bn | 10.0 | 29.3 |
| Monster Beverage | Net sales, Q2 2026 | Sales outside the US 46% of total; US share therefore about 54% | $2.54bn | 20.2 | 29.2 |
| Celsius Holdings | North America revenue, Q2 2026 | About 20.1% dollar share of US energy drinks in tracked channels | $790.7m | 10.7 | n/a |
Monster net sales are total company; sales outside the US were 46% of the total. Periods differ as shown.
4 International Segments and Bottling Investments
- Latin America revenue $1.96bn in Q3 2026, +24.5%, with price/mix +7%, currency about +9 points and organic revenue +16%; operating income $1.15bn, +28.4%, margin 58.8%.
- Asia Pacific revenue $1.56bn, +3.8%: volume +6% with price/mix (2%) on mix; Japan volume declined. EMEA $3.10bn, +3.6%: volume +5%, value share lost in France and the UK.
- Bottling Investments revenue $1.52bn, +13.2%; volume +8%, led by India and South Africa; operating income $205m against $57m. KO is exploring an IPO of its India bottling operations (Q3 2026 call).
- Refranchising: Bottling Investments revenue fell from $7.86bn in FY2023 to $5.74bn in FY2025; the CCBA sale, expected in Q4 2026, removes about 8 points of 2027 comparable revenue and about 2 points of comparable EPS.
Table 4.1 Q3 2026 growth by operating segment, year on year
| Segment | Unit case volume (%) | Price/mix (%) | Organic revenue (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMEA | +5 | +1 | +7 |
| Latin America | +6 | +7 | +16 |
| North America | 0 | +1 | +3 |
| Asia Pacific | +6 | (2) | +6 |
| Bottling Investments | +8 | +3 | +12 |
As stated in the Q3 2026 Form 8-K Ex 99.1; organic revenue is a non GAAP measure.
How international markets and bottling are changing
- Bottlers grow volume in emerging markets: Coca-Cola FEMSA volume +5.3% to 1.09bn unit cases in Q3 2026, total revenues +10.9% to MXN 79.72bn and operating income +15.4%.
- Competitors also grow abroad: PepsiCo International Beverages Franchise net revenue +8% (organic +7%) and EMEA +8% in the quarter to 5 Sep 2026; Monster sales outside the US +34.6% to $1.16bn in Q2 2026, 46% of its net sales.
- Europe: KO EMEA volume +5% in Q3 2026 with value share lost in some Western European markets incl. France and the UK.
Table 4.2 International beverage businesses, latest reported quarter
| Company | Line and period | Filed detail | Revenue | Growth (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | Total revenues, Q3 2026 | Volume +5.3%; operating income Ps. 11.87bn (+15.4%) | MXN 79.72bn | 10.9 | 14.9 |
| PepsiCo | International Beverages Franchise net revenue, Q3 2026 (12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026) | Organic +7% | $1.40bn | 8.5 | n/a |
| PepsiCo | EMEA net revenue, Q3 2026 (12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026) | Foods and beverages combined; organic +9% | $5.41bn | 7.8 | n/a |
| Monster Beverage | Net sales outside the US, Q2 2026 | 46% of total net sales | $1.16bn | 34.6 | n/a |
Coca-Cola FEMSA in Mexican pesos (6-K); PepsiCo EMEA combines foods and beverages.
5 Financial Analysis & Ratios
- Operating margin 28.7% in FY2025 and 30.0% TTM, against 21.2% in FY2024, when other operating charges were $4.16bn; TTM includes the $960m BodyArmor impairment of Q4 2025. 9M 2026 operating margin 34.4% against 33.0% in 9M 2025.
- Net income TTM $14.6bn, 28.7% of revenue, incl. equity income from bottler investments ($2.03bn in FY2025); diluted EPS TTM $3.39, comparable EPS $3.32.
- Cash flow normalised after the fairlife payment: operating cash flow TTM $16.2bn and free cash flow $14.3bn against $5.3bn in FY2025, which carried the $6.1bn final fairlife milestone payment; FY2024 carried the $6.0bn IRS deposit.
- Balance sheet at 2 Oct 2026: cash, short term investments and marketable securities $16.6bn; debt $41.6bn against $45.5bn at FY2025; net debt $25.0bn; net debt leverage 1.3x EBITDA against a 2x to 2.5x target range (CFO); unused backup credit lines $6.6bn through 2031.
- Capital returns: 9M 2026 dividends $6.84bn and buybacks $900m; repurchases are expected only to offset dilution from stock based compensation (10-Q).
Table 5.1 Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet summary ($bn unless stated)
| Line item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 38.7 | 43.0 | 45.8 | 47.1 | 47.9 | 51.1 |
| Gross profit | 23.3 | 25.0 | 27.2 | 28.7 | 29.5 | 31.8 |
| Selling, general and administrative | 12.1 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 15.4 |
| Operating income | 10.3 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 10.0 | 13.8 | 15.3 |
| Net income | 9.8 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 14.6 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 2.25 | 2.19 | 2.47 | 2.46 | 3.04 | 3.39 |
| Operating cash flow | 12.6 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 16.2 |
| Capital expenditure | (1.4) | (1.5) | (1.9) | (2.1) | (2.1) | (1.9) |
| Free cash flow | 11.3 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 14.3 |
| Stock based compensation | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Cash and investments | 12.6 | 11.6 | 13.7 | 14.6 | 15.8 | 16.6 |
| Total debt | 42.8 | 39.1 | 42.1 | 44.5 | 45.5 | 41.6 |
| Total equity | 23.0 | 24.1 | 25.9 | 24.9 | 32.2 | 37.4 |
Capital expenditure is purchases of property, plant and equipment. Total debt is loans and notes payable plus current and long term debt. TTM equals Q4 2025 plus Q1 to Q3 2026; TTM dividends of $11.23bn cover five quarterly payment dates because of payment timing around the fiscal period ends. Net income is attributable to shareowners of the company.
Table 5.2 What changed, Q3 2026 against Q3 2025
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($bn) | 12.46 | 13.38 | 7.4% |
| Gross profit ($bn) | 7.66 | 8.45 | 10.3% |
| Operating income ($bn) | 3.98 | 4.47 | 12.1% |
| Net income ($bn) | 3.70 | 4.01 | 8.5% |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 0.86 | 0.93 | 8.1% |
| Operating cash flow ($bn) | 5.04 | 4.93 | (2.3%) |
| Free cash flow ($bn) | 4.56 | 4.55 | (0.3%) |
| Operating margin (%) | 32.0 | 33.4 | 1.4 pts |
| Net margin (%) | 29.7 | 30.0 | 0.3 pts |
Table 5.3 Ratio analysis
| Ratio | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth and margins | ||||||
| Revenue growth (%) | n/a | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 | n/a |
| Gross margin (%) | 60.3 | 58.1 | 59.5 | 61.1 | 61.6 | 62.3 |
| Operating margin (%) | 26.7 | 25.4 | 24.7 | 21.2 | 28.7 | 30.0 |
| Net margin (%) | 25.3 | 22.2 | 23.4 | 22.6 | 27.3 | 28.7 |
| FCF margin (%) | 29.1 | 22.2 | 21.3 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 28.0 |
| Cost and investment intensity | ||||||
| SBC (%) revenue | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Capex (%) revenue | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| Effective tax rate (%) | 21.1 | 18.1 | 17.4 | 18.6 | 17.9 | 17.4 |
| Returns | ||||||
| ROE (%) | 42.5 | 40.5 | 42.8 | 41.9 | 46.0 | 39.1 |
| ROA (%) | 10.4 | 10.2 | 11.3 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 13.6 |
| ROIC (%) | 15.3 | 17.3 | 17.2 | 14.8 | 18.3 | 20.3 |
| Asset turnover (x) | 0.41 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.47 |
| Liquidity and leverage | ||||||
| Current ratio (x) | 1.13 | 1.15 | 1.13 | 1.03 | 1.46 | 1.38 |
| Debt to equity (x) | 1.86 | 1.62 | 1.62 | 1.79 | 1.41 | 1.11 |
| Net cash ($bn) | (30.1) | (27.5) | (28.4) | (30.0) | (29.7) | (25.0) |
| Efficiency and cash quality | ||||||
| Days sales outstanding | 33 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 23 | 26 |
| Inventory days | 81 | 86 | 87 | 94 | 88 | 84 |
| FCF to net income (x) | 1.15 | 1.00 | 0.91 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.98 |
| Shareholder returns (%) FCF | 65 | 95 | 105 | 214 | 180 | 86 |
ROE and ROA use average balances for FY2022 to FY2025 and period end balances for FY2021 and TTM. FY2024 operating cash flow reflects the $6.0bn IRS deposit and FY2025 the $6.1bn fairlife payment.
Table 5.4 Valuation snapshot at $94.28 per share, 30 Oct 2026
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap ($bn) | 405.6 |
| Enterprise value ($bn) | 430.6 |
| P/E (TTM) (x) | 27.8 |
| EV/Sales (TTM) (x) | 8.4 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) (x) | 26.3 |
| FCF yield (%) | 3.5 |
| Price/Book (x) | 10.9 |
Cost structure and profitability
- Cost of goods sold 36.8% of Q3 2026 revenue against 38.5% in Q3 2025; the 10-Q names pricing, currency and commodity effects.
- SG&A and other operating charges 29.8% of revenue against 29.5%; above the line marketing grew double digits in Q3 2026 (call); other operating charges $10m against $58m in Q3 2025 ($54m against $202m for 9M).
- Costs (revenue less operating income) $8.92bn in Q3 2026, +5.2%, against revenue +7.4%; operating margin 33.4% after 34.9% in Q2 2026.
- Q4 2025 operating margin 15.6% included the $960m BodyArmor trademark impairment; North America operating income was $427m in that quarter.
- Capex 2.8% of Q3 2026 revenue; FY2026 capex guided at about $2.2bn against $2.11bn in FY2025.
Table 5.5 Costs as % of revenue, last five quarters
| Line | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of goods sold (% of revenue) | 38.5 | 40.0 | 37.0 | 37.1 | 36.8 |
| SG&A and other operating charges (% of revenue) | 29.5 | 44.5 | 28.0 | 28.0 | 29.8 |
| Operating margin (%) | 32.0 | 15.6 | 35.0 | 34.9 | 33.4 |
| Capex (% of revenue) | 3.8 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.8 |
| Net income attributable (% of revenue) | 29.7 | 19.2 | 31.5 | 33.1 | 30.0 |
6 MD&A & Management Commentary
Q3 2026 results release and earnings call
- Q3 2026 (27 Oct 2026): net operating revenues $13.38bn, +7.4%; organic revenue +7%; operating income $4.47bn, +12.1%; operating margin 33.4% (comparable 32.9% against 31.9%); EPS $0.93 and comparable EPS $0.91 incl. a 2 point currency tailwind.
- Volume: unit case volume +5%, led by India, China, Mexico and Brazil; Coca-Cola Zero Sugar +16%, Trademark Coca-Cola +5%, water +8%, sports drinks (3%).
- Pricing: price/mix +1% from pricing +4 points and mix (3) points; management expects affordability concerns to persist into 2027 and names pressure on away from home channels.
- Margins: gross margin 63.2% against 61.5% (10-Q: pricing, currency and commodity effects); other operating charges $10m in Q3 2026; above the line marketing grew double digits and is planned to grow roughly in line with gross margin.
- Cash: 9M 2026 operating cash flow $12.47bn and free cash flow $11.4bn; net debt leverage 1.3x EBITDA; management keeps balance sheet flexibility ahead of the IRS appeal ruling.
- Q2 2026 (28 Jul 2026): net operating revenues $13.38bn, +6.7%; organic +6%; unit case volume +5%; price/mix +2%; operating margin 34.9% against 34.1%; EPS $1.03, +16%.
Table 6.1 FY2026 outlook and every revision in 2026, with 2027 considerations
| Item | Outlook | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Organic revenue growth FY2026 | 4% to 5% (10 Feb); about 5% (28 Jul); at least 5% (27 Oct) | 8-K Ex 99.1, Q4 2025, Q2 and Q3 2026 |
| Comparable EPS growth FY2026 against $3.00 | 7% to 8% (10 Feb); 8% to 9% (28 Apr); 9% to 10% (28 Jul); at least 11% (27 Oct), incl. about 3% currency tailwind and about 1% divestiture headwind | 8-K Ex 99.1 of each quarter |
| Comparable currency neutral EPS growth excl. acquisitions and divestitures | 5% to 6% (10 Feb); 6% to 7% (28 Apr); 7% to 8% (28 Jul); at least 9% (27 Oct) | 8-K Ex 99.1, Q3 2026 |
| Underlying effective tax rate | 20.9% (10 Feb); 19.9% (28 Apr); 19.7% (27 Oct); excludes IRS litigation | 8-K Ex 99.1 |
| Free cash flow FY2026 | about $12.2bn = about $14.4bn operating cash flow less about $2.2bn capex (10 Feb, kept 28 Apr); about $12.4bn (28 Jul); at least $13.0bn = at least $15.2bn less about $2.2bn (27 Oct) | 8-K Ex 99.1 |
| Q4 2026 considerations | comparable net revenues: about 1% currency tailwind, about 4% divestiture headwind; comparable EPS: about 4% currency tailwind, about 3% divestiture headwind; six fewer days | 8-K Ex 99.1, Q3 2026; Q3 call |
| FY2027 considerations | comparable net revenues: slight currency headwind, about 8% headwind from acquisitions and divestitures (CCBA); comparable EPS: slight currency headwind, about 2% divestiture headwind; full guidance in Feb 2027 | 8-K Ex 99.1, Q3 2026 |
| Share repurchases 2026 | to offset dilution from stock based compensation | 10-Q Q3 2026 MD&A |
| Long term targets | volume 2% to 3% and price/mix 2% to 3% a year | Q3 2026 call (CFO) |
Management and CFO commentary
- CFO John Murphy, Q3 2026 call: guidance raised to organic revenue of at least 5%, comparable EPS growth of at least 11% and free cash flow of at least $13.0bn; currency adds about 3 points to 2026 comparable EPS.
- CFO, Q3 2026 call: Q4 2026 carries six fewer days, slight concentrate destocking and higher logistics costs; CCBA refranchising lowers 2027 comparable revenue by about 8 points and EPS by about 2 points while lifting margins.
- CFO, Q3 2026 call: pricing added 4 points and mix took 3 points; affordability concerns expected to persist into 2027; net debt leverage 1.3x EBITDA, with flexibility kept ahead of the IRS ruling.
- Company outlook, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 10 Feb 2026: FY2026 free cash flow about $12.2bn from about $14.4bn of operating cash flow less about $2.2bn of capex; underlying tax rate 20.9%.
- CEO Henrique Braun, Q3 2026 call: North America volume flat with revenue +3%, partly holiday timing and finished goods issues; Topo Chico distribution back in Texas; affordability and premium packs run side by side.
- Braun, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 28 Jul 2026: value share gained in a changing consumer environment while investing for the long term.
Table 6.2 Management statements in their own words
| Speaker | Date and source | Statement |
|---|---|---|
| James Quincey, Chairman and CEO | 10 Feb 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “I’m encouraged by our performance in 2025” |
| Henrique Braun, CEO | 27 Oct 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “Our results this quarter demonstrate our system’s sustained momentum” |
| Henrique Braun, incoming CEO | 14 Jan 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “The Chief Digital Officer position is a pivotal new role for our future” |
Table 6.3 Key disclosures in the Forms 10-Q and 10-K
| Item | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| 10-Q Q3 2026, liquidity | Cash, short term investments and marketable securities $16.6bn at 2 Oct 2026; $6.6bn of unused backup lines of credit through 2031; supplier payment terms mostly 120 days with a voluntary supply chain finance program. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, margins | Gross margin 63.2% in Q3 2026 against 61.5% and 63.0% in 9M 2026 against 62.1%, from pricing, currency and commodity effects. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, other operating charges | Q3 2026 $10m (North America modernization $6m, BodyArmor noncompete amortization $4m); 9M 2026 $54m against $202m in 9M 2025. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, tax | Net interest income on the IRS deposit $57m in Q3 and $155m in 9M 2026, recorded in income taxes; Eleventh Circuit appeal pending. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, Africa | Bottling operations in Africa held for sale; impairment estimate reduced by $5m in Q3 2026; sale expected to close in Q4 2026 subject to regulatory approvals. |
| 10-K FY2025, held for sale | Assets held for sale $5.34bn and related liabilities $2.57bn at 31 Dec 2025, mainly CCBA. |
| 10-K FY2025, impairments | BodyArmor trademark impairment $960m in Q4 2025 on lower projected results; indefinite lived trademarks $12.53bn and goodwill $15.49bn at 31 Dec 2025. |
| 10-K FY2025, equity method | Equity method investments $20.24bn at 31 Dec 2025; equity income $2.03bn in FY2025. |
7 Peer Valuation & Sector Summary
- Sector: nonalcoholic beverages, concentrate, bottling and ready to drink. KO TTM revenue $51.1bn; PepsiCo 36 week revenue $68.90bn (beverages and convenient foods).
- Growth (periods differ): KDP +44.7% (H1 2026, incl. JDE Peet's), MNST +23.3% (H1 2026), KO +7.4% (Q3 2026), PEP +6.7% (36 weeks).
- Operating margin: KO 30.0% TTM (incl. the Q4 2025 impairment) against MNST 30.1%, PEP 16.7% and KDP 12.3%; gross margin KO 62.3% against MNST 55.5%, PEP 54.6% and KDP 45.8%.
- Valuation: KO market value $405.6bn, 27.8x TTM EPS and 28.4x TTM comparable EPS; PEP market value $187.0bn and KDP $48.8bn at 30 Oct 2026 prices.
Table 7.1 Peer comparison; periods differ (KO TTM Q3 2026, PEP 36 weeks to 5 Sep 2026, KDP and MNST H1 2026)
| Company | Revenue growth (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) | Net margin (%) | FCF margin (%) | Net cash ($bn) | Market value ($bn) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KO | 7.4 | 62.3 | 30.0 | 28.7 | 28.0 | (25.0) | 406 |
| PEP | 6.7 | 54.6 | 16.7 | 12.1 | n/a | n/a | 187 |
| KDP | 44.7 | 45.8 | 12.3 | 3.7 | 7.8 | (23.3) | 49 |
| MNST | 23.3 | 55.5 | 30.1 | n/a | 21.4 | 2.2 | n/a |
KO margins TTM Q3 2026 and growth Q3 2026 year on year. PEP: 36 weeks to 5 Sep 2026 against the prior year (Q3 2026 10-Q). KDP and MNST: H1 2026 against H1 2025 (Q2 2026 10-Qs; Q3 2026 10-Qs not filed by 31 Oct 2026); KDP growth includes the JDE Peet's acquisition. MNST market value is omitted because its share count and price could not be verified against a filing. Prices are last trades of 30 Oct 2026. FCF is operating cash flow less capex.
8 Material Events & Contracts
- Ten Forms 8-K in twelve months: four earnings releases, four leadership and pay filings (CEO succession, operating leadership, pay letters, North America transition), the annual meeting results and the fairlife cyber incident (Item 8.01).
- CEO succession: Henrique Braun became CEO on 31 Mar 2026; James Quincey became Executive Chairman. Base salaries $1.45m and $1.2m, target annual incentive 200% for both (Ex 10.1, 10.2).
- fairlife ransomware (16 Jul 2026): unauthorized access incl. production systems; US fairlife production temporarily suspended; Canada not affected; product safety not affected; materiality not determined at filing, and no financial effect is quantified in later filings read.
Table 8.1 Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
| Date | Items | Event |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | 5.02, 9.01 | Board elected Henrique Braun (EVP and COO) as CEO effective Mar 31 2026; James Quincey to become Executive Chairman. |
| 14 Jan 2026 | 5.02, 9.01 | Leadership changes effective Mar 31 2026: new Chief Digital Officer role (Sedef Salingan Sahin); Manolo Arroyo becomes EVP and Chief Marketing and Customer Commercial Officer. |
| 10 Feb 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q4 and FY2025 results: FY net revenues +2%, organic +5%, EPS $3.04 (+23%), comparable EPS $3.00 (+4%); CFO $7.4bn; FCF $5.3bn ($11.4bn excluding fairlife payment); 2026 outlook issued. |
| 20 Feb 2026 | 5.02, 9.01 | Compensation for new roles: Braun base salary $1,450,000 as CEO; Quincey $1,200,000 as Executive Chairman, effective Mar 31 2026. |
| 28 Apr 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q1 2026 results: net revenues +12% to $12.5bn, organic +10%, volume +3%, EPS $0.91, comparable EPS $0.86 (+18%); guidance updated. |
| 1 May 2026 | 5.07 | Annual meeting Apr 29 2026: 12 directors elected (Gayner 76.0%), say on pay 90.84%, EY ratified 93.56%; five shareowner proposals failed (0.81% to 22.31%). |
| 25 Jun 2026 | 5.02, 9.01 | Jennifer Mann, President North America Operating Unit, departing Jul 31 2026 (consulting to Apr 30 2027); CFO John Murphy takes North America on an interim basis from Aug 1 2026. |
| 16 Jul 2026 | 8.01 | fairlife ransomware incident: unauthorized access to systems incl. production systems; U.S. fairlife production temporarily suspended; Canada not affected; materiality not yet determined. |
| 28 Jul 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q2 2026 results: net revenues +7% to $13.4bn, organic +6%, volume +5%, EPS $1.03 (+16%), comparable EPS $0.97 (+11%); guidance raised. |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q3 2026 results: net revenues +7% to $13.4bn, organic +7%, volume +5%, EPS $0.93 (+8%), comparable EPS $0.91 (+11%); FY2026 guidance raised (comparable EPS at least +11%, FCF at least $13.0bn); 2027 considerations given. |
Table 8.2 Material contracts and financing arrangements
| Contract | Terms |
|---|---|
| Debt | Total debt $41.62bn at 2 Oct 2026 against $45.49bn at 31 Dec 2025 (loans and notes payable $1.55bn, current maturities $1.82bn, long term $42.12bn at year end); $6.6bn unused backup credit lines through 2031. |
| CCBA refranchising | Bottling operations in Africa held for sale ($5.34bn assets, $2.57bn liabilities at 31 Dec 2025); closing expected in Q4 2026; about 8 points 2027 comparable revenue headwind. |
| IRS tax litigation deposit | Tax Court decision of 2 Aug 2024 for 2007 to 2009 implied $2.7bn of tax, $6.0bn with interest, paid as a deposit on 10 Sep 2024 and held in other noncurrent assets; appeal to the Eleventh Circuit filed 22 Oct 2024. |
| fairlife acquisition | Final contingent milestone payment $6.17bn in March 2025 ($6.07bn in operating cash flow); no further contingent consideration. |
| Executive letters (Ex 10.1, 10.2, Feb 2026) | CEO base salary $1.45m and Executive Chairman base salary $1.2m from 31 Mar 2026; target annual incentive 200%. |
| Separation agreement (Ex 10.1, Jun 2026) | President North America to step down from 1 Aug 2026; senior advisor until Apr 2027; severance under the company plan. |
9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting
- One share class, one vote per share; all directors elected annually. Berkshire Hathaway reported 400.0m shares in its Form 13F for 30 Jun 2026, 9.3% of shares outstanding; Vanguard Capital Management filed a Schedule 13G for 276.8m shares (6.43%).
- 2026 annual meeting (29 Apr 2026): all 12 directors elected; Thomas S. Gayner received 76.00% of votes cast, the others 94.86% to 99.84%; say on pay 90.84%; Ernst & Young ratified with 93.56%; five shareowner proposals failed with 0.81% to 22.31%.
- Insiders, 12 months to Oct 2026: no open market purchases; sales about $254.8m by 11 insiders. James Quincey sold 1,759,895 shares for about $144.7m; John Murphy 324,369 shares for $27.1m; Jennifer Mann 323,984 shares for $26.0m; Henrique Braun 40,390 shares for $2.9m while EVP and COO.
Table 9.1 Annual meeting vote results, 29 Apr 2026
| Proposal | For (bn votes) | Against (bn votes) | Abstain (bn votes) | For as % of votes cast | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elect Herb Allen | 3.071 | 0.136 | 0.007 | 95.8 | Elected |
| Elect Henrique Braun | 3.204 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 99.8 | Elected |
| Elect Christopher C. Davis | 3.044 | 0.165 | 0.005 | 94.9 | Elected |
| Elect Thomas S. Gayner | 2.439 | 0.770 | 0.005 | 76.0 | Elected |
| Elect James Quincey | 3.144 | 0.064 | 0.005 | 98.0 | Elected |
| Advisory vote on executive compensation | 2.907 | 0.293 | 0.014 | 90.8 | Approved |
| Ratify Ernst & Young LLP | 3.435 | 0.236 | 0.006 | 93.6 | Approved |
| Shareowner: sustainability committee bylaw | 0.028 | 3.156 | 0.030 | 0.9 | Not approved |
| Shareowner: plastics packaging report | 0.026 | 3.165 | 0.023 | 0.8 | Not approved |
| Shareowner: DEI efforts report | 0.358 | 2.823 | 0.032 | 11.3 | Not approved |
| Shareowner: ingredient risks report | 0.362 | 2.824 | 0.028 | 11.4 | Not approved |
| Shareowner: sustainability disclosure plans report | 0.712 | 2.479 | 0.024 | 22.3 | Not approved |
Broker non votes 463.7m on each item except the auditor ratification. Percentages are of votes for plus against.
Remarks at the 2026 annual meeting
- Meeting of 29 Apr 2026: management cited about 2.2bn servings a day, 32 billion dollar brands and 64 consecutive annual dividend increases; North America volume +4% in Q1 2026.
- Portfolio: low calorie drinks 30% of 2024 volume; 47% of sparkling drinks sold in packs of 250ml or less; refillables 14% of global volume in 2024.
- Questions covered pricing against store brands, refillables, GLP-1 drugs (Quincey: limited effect on beverage spending) and AI spending (Braun: tied to return targets).
Table 9.2 Major holders
| Holder | Shares (m) | % of shares outstanding | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | 400.0 | 9.3 | Form 13F, 30 Jun 2026 |
| Vanguard Capital Management | 276.8 | 6.43 | Schedule 13G, 31 Mar 2026 |
Berkshire Hathaway reported 400,000,000 shares in ten rows of its Form 13F for 30 Jun 2026 (value $32.5bn at the quarter end price) and the same total for 31 Mar 2026; the percentage uses 4.30bn shares outstanding at 26 Oct 2026. Vanguard percentage as filed.
10 Risk Factors
- Item 1A of the FY2025 Form 10-K holds 42 risk factors, as in FY2024 (13,361 words against 13,151); none added or removed, four materially reworded. The 2026 Forms 10-Q refer to the 10-K factors without new text.
Table 10.1 Risk factors and legal matters with filed figures
| Risk | Disclosure and change |
|---|---|
| Health policy and SNAP | The obesity factor adds US federal and state initiatives on drivers of childhood chronic disease and possible changes in funding for, or restrictions on, the inclusion of its products in SNAP. |
| Bottler concentration | One bottler accounted for 10% of FY2025 net operating revenues (EMEA and Asia Pacific); bottler actions on quality, labor, compliance or sustainability could harm brand value. |
| IRS tax litigation | $6.0bn deposit paid in Sep 2024 for 2007 to 2009; appeal pending at the Eleventh Circuit; interest on the deposit $155m in 9M 2026, booked in income taxes. |
| Tariffs and trade | Tariff named 7 times across 5 factors in the FY2025 10-K against 4 times across 4 factors a year earlier. |
| Product safety and cyber | Recall triggers listed incl. mislabeling, spoilage, undeclared allergens and contamination; fairlife ransomware suspended US fairlife production in Jul 2026. |
| Impairments | BodyArmor trademark impairment $960m in Q4 2025; indefinite lived trademarks $12.53bn and goodwill $15.49bn at 31 Dec 2025. |
| Currency and emerging markets | Currency added about 3 points to 2026 comparable EPS guidance; a slight headwind is expected for 2027; Latin America Q3 2026 revenue includes a 9 point currency effect. |
How risk factors changed
- Comparison: 10-K FY2025 filed 20 Feb 2026 acc 0001628280-26-010047 against 10-K FY2024 filed 20 Feb 2025 acc 0000021344-25-000011.
- Factor count is unchanged at 42 and words rise from 13,151 to 13,361 (plus 2%); no factor is added or removed.
- Tariff is named 7 times across 5 factors against 4 across 4 a year earlier.
- US health policy enters the obesity factor through childhood chronic disease initiatives and SNAP eligibility of its products.
- Concentration disclosure is new: one bottler accounted for 10% of 2025 net operating revenues.
- Tax factor adds the Jun 2025 G7 side by side statement and Jan 2026 OECD guidance largely exempting US headquartered companies from Pillar Two.
Table 10.2 Size of the risk factor section
| Measure | 10-K FY2024 | 10-K FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Risk factors (count) | 42 | 42 |
| Words in Item 1A | 13,151 | 13,361 |
Table 10.3 Risk factors added, removed and materially reworded
| Change | Risk factor | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| Reworded | Attracting, retaining and inspiring talent | Heading drops talent with diverse perspectives, experiences and backgrounds reflecting consumers served and now reads attract, retain and inspire outstanding talent; the matching body text on diversity is removed. |
| Reworded | Obesity and other health concerns | Body grows from 149 to 211 words; adds US federal and state initiatives on drivers of childhood chronic disease and changes in funding for, or restrictions on, the inclusion of its products in SNAP. |
| Reworded | Product safety and quality concerns | Drops the reference to value added dairy and plant based categories and lists mislabeling, misbranding, spoilage, undeclared allergens and contamination as recall triggers, adding that remediation could reduce production and shift consumer demand. |
| Reworded | Reliance on bottling partners | Adds that one bottler accounted for 10% of net operating revenues in 2025 (EMEA and Asia Pacific segments) and that bottler actions on quality, labor, compliance or sustainability could harm brand value. |
Table 10.4 Risk factor updates in quarterly reports since the annual filing
| Filing | Change disclosed |
|---|---|
| 10-Q Q1 2026 filed 30 Apr 2026 | Refers to the FY2025 10-K risk factors; no new or updated factor text. |
| 10-Q Q2 2026 filed 29 Jul 2026 | Refers to the FY2025 10-K risk factors; no new or updated factor text. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026 filed 28 Oct 2026 | Refers to the FY2025 10-K risk factors; no new or updated factor text. |
11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity
- KO traded at $94.28 on 30 Oct 2026, +34.9% since the Dec 2025 close of $69.91 and 1.1% below the 52 week high of $95.37; market value $405.6bn.
- Valuation: 27.8x TTM diluted EPS of $3.39 and 28.4x TTM comparable EPS of $3.32; free cash flow yield 3.5% on TTM free cash flow of $14.3bn.
- Scenario model: revenue grows from TTM Q3 2026 $51.1bn for three years; operating margin as stated; other income (equity income less net interest and other) held at the TTM level of $2.54bn; 19.7% tax rate; price equals TTM Q3 2029 EPS times exit P/E.
Critical factors and core assumptions
Table 11.1 Critical factors behind the best case
| Factor | Current value | Best case requires | Evidence in filings and calls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unit case volume | +5% in Q3 2026, +4% 9M 2026 | 3% to 4% a year through 2029 | FY2025 volume even |
| Price/mix | +1% in Q3 2026 (pricing +4, mix (3)) | 2% to 3% a year | Q2 2026 +2% |
| Refranchising margin lift | Bottling Investments $5.74bn revenue FY2025, $426m operating income | CCBA sale closes Q4 2026 and consolidated margin rises above 33% | 2027 revenue headwind about 8%, EPS headwind about 2% |
| IRS tax litigation | $6.0bn deposit paid Sep 2024; Eleventh Circuit appeal pending | Favorable ruling and refund | Eighth Circuit 3M ruling Oct 1 2025 |
| Currency | about 3% tailwind to 2026 comparable EPS | Neutral to positive | 2027 slight currency headwind expected |
| fairlife and North America | North America Q3 2026 volume flat, operating income $1.77bn (+5%) | fairlife capacity restored and grows double digits | Ransomware suspension Jul 2026; Webster plant ramp |
- Revenue base TTM Q3 2026 $51.1bn; operating income $15.3bn (30.0% margin, incl. the Q4 2025 impairment).
- Best case: 4% revenue CAGR, 34% operating margin, 27x P/E: organic revenue 6% to 7% a year with volume 3% to 4%, margin lift from refranchising, favorable IRS ruling.
- Base case: 1% revenue CAGR, 32% margin, 24x P/E: organic revenue about 5% offset by about 8 points of refranchising in 2027; currency neutral.
- Worst case: (2%) revenue CAGR, 28% margin, 19x P/E: volume stalls in North America and Europe, emerging market currency weakness, IRS case lost, sugar regulation and input cost inflation.
- Share count unchanged (buybacks offset dilution only); tax rate 19.7% (FY2026 underlying guidance); dividends excluded from returns.
Scenarios, three years forward
Table 11.2 Scenario analysis, TTM Q3 2026 to TTM Q3 2029
| Measure | Worst case | Base case | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%) | (2.0) | 1.0 | 4.0 |
| Revenue, TTM Q3 2029 ($bn) | 48.1 | 52.6 | 57.4 |
| Operating margin, TTM Q3 2029 (%) | 28.0 | 32.0 | 34.0 |
| Net income, TTM Q3 2029 ($bn) | 12.8 | 15.6 | 17.7 |
| EPS, TTM Q3 2029 ($) | 2.99 | 3.62 | 4.12 |
| Exit P/E (x) | 19.0 | 24.0 | 27.0 |
| Implied price ($) | 57 | 87 | 111 |
| Change against $94.28 (%) | (40) | (8) | 18 |
| Implied annual return (%) | (15.6) | (2.7) | 5.7 |
Implied annual return excludes dividends. Net income in the model is before noncontrolling interests.
Sensitivity analysis
Table 11.3 Sensitivity of implied price to revenue CAGR and operating margin at 24x P/E
| Revenue CAGR \ Operating margin | 28% | 30% | 32% | 33% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (2%) | $72 | $76 | $80 | $82 | $85 |
| 0% | $75 | $80 | $85 | $87 | $89 |
| 1% | $77 | $82 | $87 | $89 | $92 |
| 3% | $81 | $86 | $91 | $94 | $96 |
| 4% | $83 | $89 | $94 | $96 | $99 |
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $94.28. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below.
Table 11.4 Sensitivity of implied price to exit P/E and operating margin at 1% revenue CAGR
| Exit P/E \ Operating margin | 28% | 30% | 32% | 33% | 34% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19x | $61 | $65 | $69 | $71 | $72 |
| 21x | $68 | $72 | $76 | $78 | $80 |
| 24x | $77 | $82 | $87 | $89 | $92 |
| 26x | $84 | $89 | $94 | $97 | $99 |
| 27x | $87 | $92 | $98 | $100 | $103 |
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $94.28. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 30 October 2026.
Sources
All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Call statements are taken from the Q3 2026 earnings call held by the company and remarks at its 2026 annual meeting.
Table A.1 Filings used, with accession numbers
| Form | Period | Filed | Accession number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | Q3 2026 | 28 Oct 2026 | 0001628280-26-067844 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 | Q3 2026 | 27 Oct 2026 | 0001628280-26-067403 |
| 10-Q | Q2 2026 | 29 Jul 2026 | 0001628280-26-050503 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 | Q2 2026 | 28 Jul 2026 | 0001628280-26-049922 |
| 10-Q | Q1 2026 | 30 Apr 2026 | 0001628280-26-028802 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 | Q1 2026 | 28 Apr 2026 | 0001628280-26-027723 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 | Q4 2025 | 10 Feb 2026 | 0001628280-26-006642 |
| 10-K | FY2025 | 20 Feb 2026 | 0001628280-26-010047 |
| 10-K | FY2023 | 20 Feb 2024 | 0000021344-24-000009 |
| 10-K | FY2022 | 21 Feb 2023 | 0000021344-23-000011 |
| 8-K | fairlife cyber incident | 16 Jul 2026 | 0001628280-26-048466 |
| 8-K 5.07 | Annual meeting 2026 | 1 May 2026 | 0001628280-26-029230 |
| 10-Q | PEP Q3 2026 | 7 Oct 2026 | 0000077476-26-000048 |
| 10-Q | KDP Q2 2026 | 10 Aug 2026 | 0001418135-26-000051 |
| 10-Q | MNST Q2 2026 | 6 Aug 2026 | 0001104659-26-092193 |
| 13F-HR (Berkshire Hathaway) | 30 Jun 2026 | 14 Aug 2026 | 0001193125-26-352200 |
| Schedule 13G (Vanguard Capital Management) | 31 Mar 2026 | 29 Apr 2026 | 0002100119-26-000313 |
Table A.2 Peer and sector filings used
| Company | Form | Filed | Accession number |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celsius Holdings | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 6 Aug 2026 | 0001341766-26-000047 |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | 6-K | 26 Oct 2026 | 0001292814-26-005006 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 6 Aug 2026 | 0001418135-26-000048 |
| Keurig Dr Pepper | 10-Q | 10 Aug 2026 | 0001418135-26-000051 |
| Monster Beverage | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 6 Aug 2026 | 0001104659-26-092046 |
| Monster Beverage | 10-Q | 6 Aug 2026 | 0001104659-26-092193 |
| PepsiCo | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 7 Oct 2026 | 0000077476-26-000050 |
| PepsiCo | 10-Q | 7 Oct 2026 | 0000077476-26-000048 |
Table B.1 Exhibits to Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
| Filed | Exhibit | Document | Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Dec 2025 | EX-99.1 | CEO succession: Henrique Braun to succeed James Quincey | Board elected COO Henrique Braun (57) as CEO effective 31 Mar 2026; Quincey (60) becomes Executive Chairman after nine years as CEO; More than 10 billion dollar brands added under Quincey |
| 14 Jan 2026 | EX-99.1 | Operational leadership changes; new Chief Digital Officer | New Chief Digital Officer role for Sedef Salingan Sahin, taking digital strategy from CFO John Murphy, effective 31 Mar 2026; Customer and commercial leadership moves from Murphy to Manolo Arroyo (Chief Marketing and Customer Commercial Officer) |
| 10 Feb 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q4 and FY2025 results; 2026 outlook | Q4 2025 net revenue $11.8bn (up 2%), organic up 5%; unit case volume up 1%; EPS $0.53, comparable EPS $0.58 (up 6%); FY2025 net revenue $47.9bn (up 2%), organic up 5% (price/mix 4%, concentrate sales 1%); unit case volume even; comparable EPS $3.00 (up 4%) |
| 20 Feb 2026 | EX-10.1, EX-10.2 | Letters for incoming CEO Braun and Executive Chairman Quincey | EX-10.1: Braun base salary $1.45m from 31 Mar 2026, target annual incentive 200%; EX-10.2: Quincey base salary $1.2m as Executive Chairman, target annual incentive stays 200% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q1 2026 results; guidance raised | Net revenue $12.5bn (up 12%), organic up 10% (concentrate sales up 8% incl. six extra days, price/mix 2%); unit case volume up 3%; EPS $0.91 and comparable EPS $0.86, both up 18%; comparable operating margin 34.5% vs 33.8% |
| 25 Jun 2026 | EX-10.1, EX-99.1 | North America leadership transition | EX-99.1: Jennifer Mann to step down as President, North America from 1 Aug 2026; CFO John Murphy takes interim charge; Mann stays as senior advisor until April 2027; successor to be named later |
| 28 Jul 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q2 2026 results; guidance raised | Net revenue $13.4bn (up 7%), organic up 6%; unit case volume up 5% led by India, China, US and Brazil; EPS $1.03 (up 16%); comparable EPS $0.97 (up 11%); comparable operating margin 35.6% vs 34.7% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q3 2026 results; guidance raised | Net revenue $13.4bn (up 7%), organic up 7% (concentrate 7%, price/mix 1%); unit case volume up 5% led by India, China, Mexico, Brazil; EPS $0.93 (up 8%); comparable EPS $0.91 (up 11%); comparable operating margin 32.9% vs 31.9% |
