September 30, 2026·27 min read

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Financial Analysis

Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.

Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2021 to FY2025, the Forms 10-Q for 2023 to 2026, the Forms 8-K from Jul 2024 to Jul 2026 and their quarterly earnings exhibits 99.1, the 2026 proxy statement, Schedules 13D and 13G, Forms 13F and Forms 3, 4 and 5 on the record for central index key 1065280, together with the comparable filings of seven peers. Accession numbers for every filing used appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are the closing prices of 29 September 2026.

Revenue TTM

USD 48.4bn

up 14.7% in H1 2026

Operating margin TTM

29.7%

31.5% guided for FY2026

FCF TTM ex WBD fee

USD 8.9bn

96% of FY2025 FCF went to buybacks

Share price

USD 70.31

close of 29 Sep 2026, 43% below the 52 week high

P/E TTM

22.1x

25.2x on core earnings

Scenario values, end 2029

USD 60 / 122 / 184

worst / base / best case per share

Key conclusions

Revenue growth is slowing while margins keep rising. FY2025 revenue was USD 45.2bn (+15.9%) at a 29.5% operating margin. FY2026 guidance is USD 51.0bn to 51.4bn (+13% to 14%) at 31.5%. Guided Q3 2026 growth of 11.7% is the lowest of the eleven quarters from Q1 2024, against 17.6% in Q4 2025.
Content efficiency explains most of the margin gain. Content amortization fell from 44.4% of revenue in FY2022 to 35.8% TTM (8.6 points), while operating margin rose 11.9 points to 29.7%. Cash content spend ran at 1.04x amortization in FY2025, against 1.45x in FY2021.
Free cash flow goes to buybacks. FY2025 FCF was USD 9.5bn and repurchases USD 9.1bn (96% of FCF). Shares outstanding fell 6.2% from end FY2021 to 30 Jun 2026. Q2 2026 repurchases were USD 4.7bn at an average of about USD 88 per share; USD 27.1bn of authorization remains, 9.3% of market capitalization.
Netflix earns the highest streaming margin among media peers. TTM operating margin of 29.7% compares with 18.4% at Disney (segment basis), 14.7% at Comcast, 3.7% at Paramount Skydance and (3.5%) at Warner Bros. Discovery; Alphabet reports 33.1%. In US TV time, Netflix held 7.9% in June 2026 against 13.5% for YouTube (Nielsen).
The share price fell 43% from its 52 week closing high of USD 124.14 (21 Oct 2025) to USD 70.31, spanning the Warner Bros. Discovery bid (Dec 2025 to Feb 2026) and slower growth guidance. The stock trades at 22.1x TTM GAAP EPS and 25.2x core EPS, which excludes the USD 2.8bn WBD termination fee and the USD 619m Brazil tax charge.
Scenario values for end 2029 are USD 60 (worst), 122 (base) and 184 (best) per share. The current price equals 19.9x worst case, 13.9x base case and 11.4x best case FY2029 core EPS. Exit multiple and FY2029 operating margin drive the widest range in the sensitivity analysis.

Views on these results differ. Arguments for a lower multiple cite decelerating revenue growth, view hours up 2% in H1 2026 and YouTube's larger share of TV time. Arguments for a higher multiple cite rising margins, the USD 3bn ad revenue target for 2026 and buyback capacity. This report presents filed data and model arithmetic; it is not financial advice.

1 Revenue and business model

Netflix reports one segment. Revenue comes from monthly membership fees; paid plans ranged from USD 1 to USD 38 a month at 30 Jun 2026 (10-Q 0001065280-26-000212). Advertising, consumer products and live experiences are other revenue sources; the company describes them as immaterial for 2023 to 2025.

Members and pricing. Paid memberships exceeded 325m at the end of 2025 (Q4 2025 letter). Netflix stopped reporting memberships and ARM in 2025; FY2024 ARM was USD 11.70 a month (FY2021: USD 11.67). H1 2026 price increases in the US, Mexico and Spain met company expectations (Q2 2026 letter).
Advertising. Ad revenue exceeded USD 1.5bn in 2025, more than 2.5x 2024. The 2026 target is about USD 3bn, 5.9% of guided revenue. The ad plan (USD 8.99 in the US) took more than 60% of sign ups in ad markets in Q1 2026; advertisers exceeded 4,000 (+70%).
Live and engagement. Live events take just over 5% of content spend and about 1% of view hours; 6 of the 10 largest sign up days in five years came from live events (Q2 2026 interview). View hours were 96bn in H2 2025 (+2%) and more than 97bn in H1 2026 (+2%).
FX. 56% of FY2025 revenue and 31% of operating expenses were in non USD currencies (Item 7A). FX reduced FY2025 growth by about 1 point and added about 2 points in H1 2026.

Figure 1.1. Revenue and operating margin FY2021 to FY2026 guidance

Table 1.1. Revenue by region, USD bn, and growth

Region	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM	FY2025 y/y	H1 2026 y/y	TTM share
UCAN	13.0	14.1	14.9	17.4	20.0	21.1	15.0%	11.8%	43.6%
EMEA	9.7	9.7	10.6	12.4	14.5	15.6	17.2%	15.7%	32.3%
LATAM	3.6	4.1	4.4	4.8	5.4	5.9	10.7%	20.0%	12.1%
APAC	3.3	3.6	3.8	4.4	5.4	5.8	21.3%	17.7%	12.0%
Total streaming	29.5	31.5	33.6	39.0	45.2	48.4	15.9%	14.7%	100.0%

FY2021 to FY2023 totals include DVD revenue of USD 182m, 146m and 83m. FY2025 revenue includes hedging losses of USD 91m.

2 Financial analysis and ratios

H1 2026 revenue rose 14.7% to USD 24.8bn and operating income 14.4% to USD 8.1bn. Q2 2026 operating margin was 33.4%, against 34.1% in Q2 2025, as technology and marketing costs grew faster than revenue (10-Q, MD&A). TTM ROE of 49.5% includes the USD 2.8bn WBD fee; FY2025 ROE was 42.8%.

Figure 2.1. Quarterly revenue and operating margin

Table 2.1. Income statement, USD bn; TTM = Q3 2025 to Q2 2026

USD bn	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM
Revenue	29.70	31.62	33.72	39.00	45.18	48.37
Cost of revenues	(17.33)	(19.17)	(19.72)	(21.04)	(23.28)	(24.61)
Gross profit	12.37	12.45	14.01	17.96	21.91	23.76
Sales and marketing	(2.55)	(2.53)	(2.66)	(2.92)	(3.30)	(3.57)
Technology and development	(2.27)	(2.71)	(2.68)	(2.93)	(3.39)	(3.71)
General and administrative	(1.35)	(1.57)	(1.72)	(1.70)	(1.89)	(2.13)
Operating income	6.19	5.63	6.95	10.42	13.33	14.35
Interest expense	(0.77)	(0.71)	(0.70)	(0.72)	(0.78)	(0.85)
Interest and other income	0.41	0.34	(0.05)	0.27	0.17	2.99
Income tax	(0.72)	(0.77)	(0.80)	(1.25)	(1.74)	(2.84)
Net income	5.12	4.49	5.41	8.71	10.98	13.65
Diluted EPS, USD (split adjusted)	1.12	0.99	1.20	1.98	2.53	3.18
Diluted shares, bn	4.55	4.51	4.49	4.39	4.34	4.30

FY2025 sales and marketing is the renamed marketing line. TTM diluted shares are the average of three reported quarters; derived Q4 2025 EPS of USD 0.56 is from the Q4 2025 letter.

Table 2.2. What changed: FY2025 against FY2024 and H1 2026 against H1 2025, USD bn

	Full year			First half
USD bn	FY2024	FY2025	Change	H1 2025	H1 2026	Change
Revenue	39.00	45.18	15.9%	21.62	24.81	14.7%
Cost of revenues	21.04	23.28	10.6%	10.59	11.93	12.6%
Content amortization	15.30	16.42	7.3%	7.66	8.53	11.4%
Sales and marketing	2.92	3.30	13.2%	1.40	1.67	18.9%
Technology and development	2.93	3.39	15.9%	1.65	1.97	19.4%
General and administrative	1.70	1.89	10.9%	0.86	1.10	27.7%
Operating income	10.42	13.33	27.9%	7.12	8.15	14.4%
Net income	8.71	10.98	26.1%	6.02	8.68	44.4%
Operating cash flow	7.36	10.15	37.9%	5.21	7.03	34.9%
Free cash flow	6.92	9.46	36.7%	4.93	6.62	34.3%
Content cash additions	16.22	17.10	5.4%	7.39	9.77	32.3%
Share repurchases	6.26	9.13	45.7%	5.19	5.98	15.3%
Operating margin	26.7%	29.5%	2.8 pts	32.9%	32.8%	(0.1) pts

Table 2.3. Core earnings reconciliation, USD bn

USD bn	FY2025	TTM
Operating income, GAAP	13.33	14.35
Add: Brazil non income tax charge of USD 619m (Q3 2025)	0.62	0.62
Operating income, core	13.95	14.97
Operating margin, core	30.9%	31.0%
Net income, GAAP	10.98	13.65
Add: Brazil charge (treated as non deductible)	0.62	0.62
Less: WBD termination fee after tax (Q1 2026)	0.00	(2.26)
Net income, core	11.60	12.01
Diluted EPS, GAAP / core, USD	2.53 / 2.67	3.18 / 2.79

WBD fee taxed at the Q1 2026 effective rate of 19.3%. Sources: 8-K 0001065280-25-000404 (Brazil), 8-K 0001193125-26-082247 (fee).

Table 2.4. Ratio analysis, FY2021 to FY2025 and TTM

Ratio	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM
Growth
Revenue growth	n/a	6.5%	6.7%	15.6%	15.9%	16.0%
EPS growth	n/a	(11.5%)	20.9%	64.8%	27.6%	n/a
Profitability
Gross margin	41.6%	39.4%	41.5%	46.1%	48.5%	49.1%
Operating margin	20.9%	17.8%	20.6%	26.7%	29.5%	29.7%
Net margin	17.2%	14.2%	16.0%	22.3%	24.3%	28.2%
FCF margin	(0.4%)	5.1%	20.5%	17.7%	20.9%	23.1%
ROE	32.3%	24.5%	26.1%	38.4%	42.8%	49.5%
ROA	11.5%	9.6%	11.1%	17.0%	20.1%	24.5%
ROIC (after tax)	17.4%	13.7%	17.3%	22.6%	28.0%	26.7%
Cost structure
Content amortization / revenue	41.2%	44.4%	42.1%	39.2%	36.3%	35.8%
Marketing / revenue	8.6%	8.0%	7.9%	7.5%	7.3%	7.4%
Tech and development / revenue	7.7%	8.6%	7.9%	7.5%	7.5%	7.7%
SBC / revenue	1.4%	1.8%	1.0%	0.7%	0.8%	1.0%
Content cash / amortization	1.45x	1.20x	0.88x	1.06x	1.04x	1.13x
Effective tax rate	12.4%	14.7%	12.9%	12.6%	13.7%	17.2%
Efficiency and liquidity
Asset turnover	0.67x	0.68x	0.69x	0.76x	0.83x	0.87x
Current ratio	0.95x	1.17x	1.12x	1.22x	1.19x	1.14x
Leverage
Debt / equity	0.97x	0.69x	0.71x	0.63x	0.54x	0.47x
Net debt / EBITDA	1.46x	1.39x	1.01x	0.56x	0.40x	0.35x
Interest coverage	8.1x	8.0x	9.9x	14.5x	17.2x	16.9x
Capital return and valuation
Buybacks / FCF	n/a	0%	87%	90%	96%	89%
P/E at year end	53.6x	29.6x	40.5x	44.9x	37.1x	22.1x
FCF yield at year end	0.0%	1.2%	3.3%	1.8%	2.4%	3.8%

Returns use average equity and assets. EBITDA = operating income plus depreciation of property; content amortization stays in operating costs. P/E and FCF yield use split adjusted closes.

Figure 2.2. Cash flow, buybacks and content cash ratio

Table 2.5. Balance sheet and liquidity, USD bn, period end

USD bn	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	30 Jun 2026
Cash and short term investments	6.03	6.06	7.14	9.58	9.06	9.13
Content assets, net	30.92	32.74	31.66	32.45	32.78	33.84
Total assets	44.58	48.59	48.73	53.63	55.60	58.45
Content liabilities, on balance sheet	7.39	7.56	7.04	6.17	5.66	5.49
Total debt	15.39	14.35	14.54	15.58	14.46	14.31
Net debt	9.37	8.29	7.41	6.00	5.40	5.18
Stockholders' equity	15.85	20.78	20.59	24.74	26.62	30.15
Shares outstanding, bn (split adjusted)	4.44	4.45	4.33	4.28	4.22	4.16

Total content obligations were USD 25.1bn at 30 Jun 2026, of which USD 19.6bn sat off the balance sheet. Senior notes of USD 14.4bn are fixed rate across 12 tranches maturing 2026 to 2054; USD 1.0bn of 5.25% notes due 2036 were issued in Jul 2026 to repay the Nov 2026 notes.

3 MD&A, guidance and management commentary

Management raised the FY2026 FCF target to about USD 12.5bn after the WBD fee and narrowed the revenue range to USD 51.0bn to 51.4bn.

Table 3.1. Company guidance and actuals

Item	FY2025 actual	FY2026 guide, Jan 2026	FY2026 guide, Jul 2026	Q3 2026 guide
Revenue	USD 45.2bn (+15.9%)	USD 50.7bn to 51.7bn	USD 51.0bn to 51.4bn (+13% to 14%)	USD 12.86bn (+11.7%)
Operating margin	29.5%	31.5%	31.5%	33.2%
Free cash flow	USD 9.5bn	about USD 11bn	about USD 12.5bn (incl. fee)	n/a
Diluted EPS	USD 2.53	n/a	n/a	USD 0.82
Ad revenue	above USD 1.5bn	about USD 3bn	about USD 3bn	n/a
Content	USD 16.4bn amortization; 1.04x cash	cash about 1.1x amortization	amortization +10%	n/a

Sources: shareholder letters, 8-K Ex 99.1 0001065280-26-000033 and 0001065280-26-000211.

MD&A, FY2025 10-K. Growth came from more members, price increases and ad revenue. Cost of revenues was 52% of revenue; content amortization rose USD 1.1bn and other cost of revenues USD 1.1bn, mainly the Brazil charge. Content obligations of USD 24.0bn at year end included USD 11.5bn due within one year.
MD&A, Q2 2026 10-Q. H1 revenue +15% (+13% FX neutral). Netflix paid USD 729m on Brazil tax assessments in H1 2026 and made an acquisition for about USD 587m. 57% of revenue was in non USD currencies.
Earnings interview, 16 Jul 2026 (Netflix investor relations transcript). CFO Spencer Neumann said 2026 tracks the plan: about USD 6bn of added revenue and content expense growth of about 10%. Co CEO Greg Peters said revenue per member on the ad plan is closing the gap with the standard plan. Co CEO Ted Sarandos said Netflix prefers building its own business to acquisitions when asked about M&A, and said generative AI has been used on about 300 titles.
Themes management flags. Guild contracts (WGA, SAG AFTRA, DGA) all expire in 2026 (Item 1A). Live sports expand in 2026 and 2027: NFL games on Christmas, Thanksgiving Eve, week 1 and the final week, plus boxing, WWE and MLB events.

4 Sector and competitor analysis

Netflix combines the second highest TTM operating margin in the peer set (29.7%, behind Alphabet at 33.1%) with 14.7% H1 2026 growth. Legacy media peers grew between (6.3%) and 6.2% and their streaming units earned between (20.4%) and 12.6% in FY2025.

TV time. Streaming reached 49.0% of US TV viewing in Jul 2026 (broadcast 19.5%, cable 18.7%); YouTube held 14.2%. In Jun 2026 Netflix held 7.9% and YouTube 13.5% (Nielsen, The Gauge). Nielsen changes its measurement basis from the new TV season.
Consolidation. Paramount Skydance agreed to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery after WBD ended its agreement with Netflix on 27 Feb 2026; about USD 44.4bn of notes for that deal were in the market in late Sep 2026. Comcast spun off its cable networks (Versant) on 2 Jan 2026.
Advertising market. Industry estimates of US connected TV ad spend for 2026 range from USD 29.3bn to USD 38.0bn; the Netflix target of USD 3bn equals 8% to 10% of that range.
Valuation. Netflix trades at 22.1x TTM earnings (Disney 21.8x, Alphabet 16.8x, Comcast 7.0x) and 20.2x EV/EBITDA (Disney 9.4x, Alphabet 23.0x).

Table 4.1. Peer comparison, TTM to Jun 2026 (Disney to Jun 2026 fiscal Q3); market data at 27 to 29 Sep 2026

Company	Revenue, bn	Growth, H1 y/y	Operating margin	FCF margin	Net debt / EBITDA	Market cap, USD bn	P/E TTM	EV / EBITDA
Netflix	48.4	14.7%	29.7%	23.1%	0.35x	293	22.1x	20.2x
Disney	98.9	6.2%	18.4%	8.4%	1.72x	182	21.8x	9.4x
Warner Bros. Discovery	36.1	(6.3%)	(3.5%)	6.0%	7.53x	77	n/m	27.9x
Paramount Skydance	29.1	1.6%	3.7%	1.6%	5.59x	11	n/m	10.2x
Spotify (EUR)	18.1	11.1%	14.6%	18.0%	(3.41x)	102	33.1x	n/a
Roku	5.2	22.1%	5.2%	13.6%	(7.47x)	23	113.6x	59.2x
Alphabet	445.9	23.1%	33.1%	11.9%	(0.82x)	4,125	16.8x	23.0x
Comcast	124.9	2.0%	14.7%	16.4%	2.43x	77	7.0x	4.7x

Disney operating margin uses total segment operating income. Growth for Disney is nine months of FY2026. n/m: negative earnings. EV/EBITDA computed from latest filed net debt and TTM operating income plus D&A.

Figure 4.1. Growth against operating margin, peers

Table 4.2. Streaming units, FY2025

Company	Unit	Revenue, bn	Margin	Measure	Subscribers, m
Netflix	Whole company	45.2	29.5%	GAAP operating income	above 325 (end 2025)
Disney	Direct to Consumer	24.6	5.4%	DTC operating income	Disney+ 131.6; Hulu 64.1
Warner Bros. Discovery	Streaming	10.9	12.6%	Adjusted EBITDA	n/a
Paramount Skydance	Direct to Consumer	8.6	2.7%	Adjusted OIBDA	Paramount+ 78.9
Comcast	Peacock	5.4	(20.4%)	Revenue less costs	44
Spotify (EUR)	Premium	15.3	33.7%	Segment gross margin	290 premium
Alphabet	YouTube ads	40.4	n/a	profit undisclosed	n/a

Measures differ across companies. Peacock result derived from disclosed revenue and costs. Spotify premium subscribers at FY2025 end.

Figure 4.2. Streaming unit margins FY2023 to FY2025

5 Material events and filings

The Warner Bros. Discovery transaction dominated the last twelve months: Netflix signed on 5 Dec 2025, moved to all cash on 20 Jan 2026 and received a USD 2.8bn termination fee on 27 Feb 2026 when WBD accepted a Paramount Skydance offer. All deal financing then terminated.

Table 5.1. Form 8-K events, Jun 2025 to Jul 2026

Filed	Items	Event
30 Jul 2026	5.02	Director Anne Sweeney resigned (effective 26 Jul 2026)
22 Jul 2026	8.01	USD 1.0bn 5.25% notes due 2036 issued to repay 4.375% notes due Nov 2026
16 Jul 2026	2.02	Q2 2026 results; FY2026 revenue range narrowed to USD 51.0bn to 51.4bn
5 Jun 2026	5.07, 8.01	Annual meeting results; Jay Hoag named independent Chairman
22 Apr 2026	8.01	Additional USD 25bn share repurchase authorization
16 Apr 2026	2.02, 5.02	Q1 2026 results; Reed Hastings to leave the board at the 2026 annual meeting
27 Feb 2026	1.02	WBD merger agreement terminated; Netflix received USD 2.8bn termination fee
20 Jan 2026	1.01, 2.02	Q4 2025 results; WBD offer amended to all cash at USD 27.75 per share; bridge USD 42.2bn
22 Dec 2025	1.01, 2.03	USD 5bn revolving credit facility and USD 20bn delayed draw term loans
5 Dec 2025	1.01, 7.01	Agreement to acquire Warner Bros. (studios, HBO, HBO Max); EV USD 82.7bn, USD 59bn bridge
14 Nov 2025	5.03	Charter amendment; 10 for 1 stock split effective
4 Nov 2025	5.02	Executive severance plan and equity award amendments
21 Oct 2025	2.02	Q3 2025 results; USD 619m Brazil non income tax charge
17 Jul 2025	2.02	Q2 2025 results
24 Jun 2025	5.02, 8.01	Board rejected Jay Hoag's resignation after a failed majority vote

24 Form 8-K filings from Jul 2024 to Sep 2026; full log with accession numbers in the appendix data. Earnings exhibits are Ex 99.1 shareholder letters.

Table 5.2. FY2025 10-K items and Q2 2026 10-Q updates

Item	Content
Item 1, Business	One segment; about 16,000 employees (68% in UCAN); membership and ARM reporting ended in 2025.
Item 1A, Risk factors	33 risks, up from 31. New: two WBD transaction risks (USD 5.8bn reverse fee, integration). Reworded: debt (WBD financing), labor (2026 guild expiries), regulation (EU DMA), reputation (now covers ads). Generative AI added to IP and device partner risks. The Q2 2026 10-Q reports the risk factors unchanged in substance.
Item 1C, Cybersecurity	Enterprise program with bug bounty and red team testing; Audit Committee oversight; past incidents immaterial.
Item 3, Legal proceedings	Ordinary course claims including patents. Brazil non income tax: USD 619m probable loss expensed Q3 2025; USD 729m paid in H1 2026.
Item 5, Equity	Q4 2025 repurchases 18.9m shares at about USD 110; FY2025 86.5m shares for USD 9.1bn. Dividends: none paid to date.
Item 7A, Market risk	56% of revenue in non USD currencies. A 10% weaker USD lowers the revenue hedge value by USD 2.3bn (AOCI). Debt all fixed rate.
Item 9A, Controls	Controls effective; Ernst & Young issued a clean opinion.

10-K 0001065280-26-000034; 10-Q 0001065280-26-000212; risk factor comparison against 10-K 0001065280-25-000044.

6 Annual shareholder meeting, ownership and insider activity

Annual shareholder meeting, 4 Jun 2026

Shareholders elected all 12 directors and approved the auditor and say on pay; all four shareholder proposals failed. Holders of 3.60bn of 4.21bn shares (85.6%) were represented, against 86.7% in 2025. Jay Hoag received 93.1% support, up from 21.6% in 2025, and became independent Chairman after the meeting.

Board changes. Reed Hastings left the board at the meeting (8-K 0001065280-26-000137); Jay Hoag became independent Chairman and the separate Lead Independent Director role ended (8-K 0001065280-26-000189). Anne Sweeney resigned on 26 Jul 2026 (8-K 0001065280-26-000214), leaving 11 directors.
2025 meeting. Hoag received 21.6% support and offered his resignation; the board rejected it on 22 Jun 2025, citing 2024 attendance below 75% as the likely cause of the vote (8-K 0001065280-25-000287).
Pay. Say on pay support fell from 85.6% to 83.7%. 2025 total pay was USD 53.9m for Ted Sarandos and USD 53.2m for Greg Peters, each with USD 41.4m in stock awards and a bonus at 117.6% of target; CEO pay ratios 255:1 and 252:1 (DEF 14A 0001193125-26-159286).
Shareholder rights. The written consent proposal drew 44.6%, the highest support for a shareholder proposal at the two meetings; a resubmitted 2025 proposal drew 42.2%.

Table 6.1. Proposals and support, 2026 and 2025 meetings (for as % of for plus against)

Proposal	Board view	2026	2025	Outcome
2. Ratify Ernst & Young as auditor	For	96.8%	98.5%	Approved
3. Say on pay	For	83.7%	85.6%	Approved
4. Shareholder right to act by written consent (shareholder)	Against	44.6%	n/a	Rejected
5. ESG ROI Report (shareholder)	Against	1.0%	n/a	Rejected
6. Politicized Brand Misalignment (shareholder)	Against	1.0%	n/a	Rejected
7. Cumulative Voting (shareholder)	Against	3.0%	n/a	Rejected
2025: Climate transition plan (shareholder)	Against	n/a	10.5%	Rejected
2025: Resubmitted proposal with 45% prior support (shareholder)	Against	n/a	42.2%	Rejected
2025: Code of ethics amendments (shareholder)	Against	n/a	5.6%	Rejected
2025: Affirmative action risks report (shareholder)	Against	n/a	0.5%	Rejected
2025: Charitable giving report (shareholder)	Against	n/a	0.5%	Rejected

Broker non votes: 413.5m in 2026 and 36.5m in 2025 (pre split) on each item except the auditor. Sources: 8-K 0001065280-26-000189 and 0001065280-25-000286.

Table 6.2. Director elections, support as % of for plus against

Director	2026	2025
Richard Barton	90.8%	91.0%
Elinor Mertz	91.2%	n/a
Jay Hoag	93.1%	21.6%
Ann Mather	93.4%	95.3%
Leslie Kilgore	94.9%	95.8%
Brad Smith	95.9%	97.1%
Susan Rice	96.2%	98.5%
Anne Sweeney	96.2%	96.7%
Strive Masiyiwa	96.4%	97.4%
Mathias Dopfner	97.2%	97.7%
Ted Sarandos	98.5%	98.1%
Greg Peters	98.5%	98.1%
Reed Hastings (left the board 2026)	n/a	95.3%

Lowest 2026 support: Richard Barton. All directors required a majority of votes cast.

Ownership and insider activity

Insiders sold USD 402.5m of stock and bought none in the twelve months to Sep 2026; 95% of sales ran under Rule 10b5-1 plans, and Reed Hastings accounted for USD 309m. Vanguard (8.4%) and BlackRock (8.4%) are the largest holders.

Table 6.3. Largest institutional holders from Form 13F, shares m

Holder	30 Jun 2026	% of shares	31 Mar 2026	31 Dec 2025	Change since Dec 2025
Vanguard	350.1	8.4%	349.8	390.0	(10.2%)
BlackRock, Inc.	348.8	8.4%	n/a	348.5	0.1%
State Street Corp	180.1	4.3%	171.7	176.8	1.9%
FMR LLC	135.9	3.3%	204.7	195.8	(30.6%)
Invesco Ltd.	135.4	3.3%	88.6	95.2	42.3%
Geode Capital Management	110.3	2.6%	103.5	99.6	10.8%
Morgan Stanley	99.7	2.4%	99.0	85.3	16.8%
T. Rowe Price Associates	93.6	2.2%	99.0	86.1	8.7%
Capital World Investors	87.3	2.1%	99.1	89.3	(2.2%)
Capital Research Global Investors	68.7	1.6%	68.0	42.4	62.2%

Holders selected from the largest asset managers, a subset of the 3,486 filers holding NFLX; n/a: filing unretrieved. Invesco figures use amended 13F-HR/A filings. 13G: Vanguard 7.49% (Mar 2026); FMR 3.3% (Jun 2026).

Table 6.4. Insider sales, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, USD m (Form 4)

Insider	Role	Sales	Of which 10b5-1
Reed Hastings	Director	308.9	308.9
David Hyman	Chief Legal Officer	38.0	36.7
Greg Peters	Co CEO	17.7	8.8
Spencer Neumann	CFO	17.0	13.9
Ted Sarandos	Co CEO	14.4	9.7
Bradford Smith	Director	5.6	5.6
Others (2)	Officer, director	0.9	0.3
Total		402.5	384.0

179 Form 4 filings. Open market purchases: zero. Grants and option exercises excluded from the sales totals.

The P/E multiple fell from 44.9x at end 2024 to 22.1x while TTM EPS rose to USD 3.18; the price is near its Jun 2024 close of USD 67.49. Company buybacks in Q2 2026 averaged about USD 88 per share, 25% above the 29 Sep 2026 close.

Figure 7.1. Monthly share price 2021 to 2026

Table 7.1. Year end valuation, split adjusted

Date	Market cap, USD bn	Price, USD	Diluted EPS, USD	P/E	FCF yield
2021	267	60.24	1.12	53.6x	0.0%
2022	131	29.49	0.99	29.6x	1.2%
2023	211	48.69	1.20	40.5x	3.3%
2024	381	89.13	1.98	44.9x	1.8%
2025	396	93.76	2.53	37.1x	2.4%
29 Sep 2026	293	70.31	3.18 TTM	22.1x	3.8%

8 Forward scenarios, FY2027 to FY2029

On model assumptions anchored to FY2026 guidance, FY2029 core EPS reaches USD 3.53 (worst), USD 5.07 (base) and USD 6.14 (best), against USD 3.08 implied for FY2026. Implied values per share at end 2029 are USD 60, 122 and 184.

Table 8.1. Scenario assumptions, FY2027 to FY2029

Driver	Worst	Base	Best
Subscription revenue growth 2027 / 2028 / 2029	5.0% / 4.0% / 3.5%	8.5% / 8.0% / 7.5%	11.0% / 10.5% / 10.0%
Ad revenue 2027 / 2028 / 2029, USD bn	3.5 / 3.9 / 4.3	4.3 / 5.6 / 6.8	5.0 / 7.0 / 9.0
Operating margin 2027 / 2028 / 2029	31.0% / 30.5% / 30.0%	33.0% / 34.5% / 36.0%	34.5% / 37.0% / 39.0%
Diluted share count change a year	(1.5%)	(2.5%)	(3.0%)
Exit P/E on FY2029 core EPS	17x	24x	30x
Common to all	FY2026 anchor: revenue USD 51.2bn (guidance midpoint), ads USD 3.0bn, margin 31.5%. Net interest and other USD (0.6)bn a year; tax rate 16%.

Table 8.2. Scenario outputs

Output	Worst	Base	Best
Revenue FY2029, USD bn	58.8	67.5	74.0
Revenue CAGR FY2026 to FY2029	4.7%	9.7%	13.1%
Ad revenue share FY2029	7.3%	10.1%	12.2%
Operating income FY2029, USD bn	17.6	24.3	28.9
Core EPS FY2027, USD	3.26	3.68	4.00
Core EPS FY2029, USD	3.53	5.07	6.14
Core EPS CAGR FY2026 to FY2029	4.7%	18.1%	25.9%
Implied value end 2029, USD per share	60	122	184
Change against USD 70.31	(15%)	73%	162%
Annualized, to end 2029	(4.7%)	18.4%	34.5%

Figure 8.1. Scenario EPS paths and implied values

Critical factors behind the best case

Table 8.3. Best case drivers: evidence to date and requirement

Factor	Evidence in filings and company materials	Best case requirement
Advertising scale	Ad revenue USD 1.5bn (2025), about USD 3bn (2026); ad plan above 60% of sign ups in ad markets; 4,000+ advertisers	USD 9bn by 2029, 12% of revenue; ad plan revenue per member at parity with the standard plan
Pricing power	Price rises in the US, Mexico, Spain met plan in H1 2026; plans USD 1 to 38 a month	Subscription growth of 10% to 11% a year with churn stable
Content cost discipline	Amortization 35.8% of revenue TTM against 44.4% FY2022; amortization growth about 10% against 13% to 14% revenue growth	Amortization growth 4 to 5 points below revenue growth through 2029; margin 39%
Engagement and live	View hours +2% in H1 2026; live is 5% of content spend and drove 6 of the top 10 sign up days	Live sports and events lift sign ups and ad inventory without raising content cash above 1.1x amortization
Capital return	FY2025 buybacks 96% of FCF; USD 27.1bn authorization (9.3% of market cap)	Share count falls 3% a year
Valuation multiple	P/E 25.2x core TTM; 37.1x at end 2025; 45.0x at end 2024	Exit P/E 30x, between the current multiple and the end 2025 multiple

Core assumptions and demand drivers

Demand. Revenue splits into subscription (members times price) and advertising. Base case subscription growth of 8.5% to 7.5% combines low single digit member growth with price increases; the worst case assumes 3.5% to 5% as member growth stalls in UCAN and EMEA, which hold 76% of revenue.
Margin. Base case margin rises 1.5 points a year, the FY2025 to FY2026 guided pace (29.5% to 31.5%) slowed by a quarter. The worst case lets margin slip to 30% from renewed content and sports rights cost growth.
Per share. Buybacks reduce diluted shares 1.5% to 3% a year; the FY2021 to FY2025 average was 1.2% a year.
Excluded. Large acquisitions, changes in the tax regime, FX moves beyond FY2026 guidance and one off items such as the WBD fee.

9 Sensitivity analysis

The exit multiple moves base case value by USD 101 to 142 across 20x to 28x; FY2029 margin between 33% and 39% moves it by USD 111 to 132. In Figure 9.1 only the 16x P/E and 30% margin cell falls below today's price (USD 67). At a 24x multiple, every combination of 5% to 13% revenue CAGR and 30% to 42% margin exceeds USD 70.31; the lowest cell in Table 9.1 is USD 88.

Figure 9.1. Sensitivity of value to exit P/E and margin

Table 9.1. Value per share, end 2029, by revenue CAGR and FY2029 operating margin, 24x exit P/E

Margin \ CAGR	5%	7%	9%	11%	13%
30%	88	94	99	105	111
33%	97	103	109	116	122
36%	106	113	119	126	133
39%	116	122	130	137	145
42%	125	132	140	148	156

Shading: values above USD 110 in blue.

Revenue. A 1 point revenue shortfall in FY2027 at an unchanged cost base reduces FY2027 core EPS by about USD 0.11.
FX. With 56% to 57% of revenue in non USD currencies, a 10% stronger USD would reduce reported revenue by about 5.7% before hedges; the revenue hedge program offsets part of this (hedge value sensitivity USD 2.3bn per 10%, Item 7A).
Rates. All senior notes are fixed rate, so rate moves affect refinancing only: USD 1.0bn matures in Nov 2026 (refinanced) and USD 1.5bn in May 2027.

Appendix: method, sources and definitions

Data. Financial statements from XBRL in the 10-K for FY2021 to FY2025 and 10-Q filings for Q1 2023 to Q2 2026, retrieved through the SEC-API.io MCP server. Q4 figures equal the full year less the nine month year to date. Per share data are adjusted for the 10 for 1 split of 14 Nov 2025.
Accession numbers. 10-K: 0001065280-22-000036, -23-000035, -24-000030, -25-000044, -26-000034. 10-Q Q1 and Q2 2026: 0001065280-26-000138, -26-000212. Shareholder letters: 8-K Ex 99.1 0001065280-25-000404, -26-000033, -26-000137, -26-000211. Proxy: DEF 14A 0001193125-26-159286.
Other sources. Earnings interview transcript of 16 Jul 2026 from Netflix investor relations. Peer data from peer 10-K, 10-Q, 20-F and 6-K filings. TV share: Nielsen. Market prices: 27 to 29 Sep 2026.
Definitions. FCF = operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment. Core earnings exclude the Brazil charge and the WBD fee (Table 2.3). EBITDA = operating income plus depreciation of property. Net debt = total debt less cash and short term investments. ROIC = operating income after tax over debt plus equity.
Scenario model. Revenue = subscription revenue grown at scenario rates plus scenario ad revenue. EPS = (revenue x margin less USD 0.6bn) x (1 less 16%) over diluted shares. Implied value = FY2029 EPS x exit P/E, undiscounted. These are model outputs, separate from company guidance, which covers FY2026 only.

Sources

Table A.1. Netflix filings used (central index key 1065280)

Form	Period or event	Accession number
10-K	FY2021	0001065280-22-000036
10-K	FY2022	0001065280-23-000035
10-K	FY2023	0001065280-24-000030
10-K	FY2024	0001065280-25-000044
10-K	FY2025	0001065280-26-000034
10-Q	Q1 2023	0001065280-23-000120
10-Q	Q2 2023	0001065280-23-000198
10-Q	Q3 2023	0001065280-23-000273
10-Q	Q1 2024	0001065280-24-000128
10-Q	Q2 2024	0001065280-24-000200
10-Q	Q3 2024	0001065280-24-000287
10-Q	Q1 2025	0001065280-25-000176
10-Q	Q2 2025	0001065280-25-000323
10-Q	Q3 2025	0001065280-25-000406
10-Q	Q1 2026	0001065280-26-000138
10-Q	Q2 2026	0001065280-26-000212
8-K	30 Jul 2026, items 5.02	0001065280-26-000214
8-K	22 Jul 2026, items 8.01, 9.01	0001193125-26-312575
8-K	16 Jul 2026, items 2.02, 9.01	0001065280-26-000211
8-K	5 Jun 2026, items 5.07, 8.01	0001065280-26-000189
8-K	22 Apr 2026, items 8.01	0001065280-26-000139
8-K	16 Apr 2026, items 2.02, 5.02, 9.01	0001065280-26-000137
8-K	27 Feb 2026, items 1.02	0001193125-26-082247
8-K	20 Jan 2026, items 2.02, 9.01	0001065280-26-000033
8-K	20 Jan 2026, items 1.01, 7.01, 9.01	0001193125-26-015951
8-K	22 Dec 2025, items 1.01, 2.03	0001193125-25-327462
8-K	5 Dec 2025, items 9.01	0001193125-25-309911
8-K	5 Dec 2025, items 1.01, 7.01, 9.01	0001193125-25-308651
8-K	14 Nov 2025, items 5.03, 9.01	0001065280-25-000450
8-K	4 Nov 2025, items 5.02, 9.01	0001065280-25-000408
8-K	30 Oct 2025, items 8.01, 9.01	0001065280-25-000407
8-K	21 Oct 2025, items 2.02, 9.01	0001065280-25-000404
8-K	17 Jul 2025, items 2.02, 9.01	0001065280-25-000322
8-K	24 Jun 2025, items 5.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001065280-25-000287
8-K	6 Jun 2025, items 5.07	0001065280-25-000286
8-K	17 Apr 2025, items 2.02, 5.02, 9.01	0001065280-25-000175
8-K	21 Jan 2025, items 2.02, 8.01	0001065280-25-000033
8-K	17 Oct 2024, items 2.02, 9.01	0001065280-24-000286
8-K	1 Aug 2024, items 8.01, 9.01	0001140361-24-035325
8-K	18 Jul 2024, items 2.02, 9.01	0001065280-24-000199
DEF 14A	2026 proxy statement	0001193125-26-159286
SC 13G	FMR LLC, 2026-08-06	0000315066-26-002077
SC 13G	Vanguard Capital Management LLC, 2026-04-30	0002100119-26-000856
SC 13G	The Vanguard Group, 2026-03-27	0000102909-26-001888
SC 13G	FMR LLC, 2025-04-07	0000315066-25-001058
13F-HR	Vanguard Capital Management Llc, period 2026-06-30	0002100119-26-001527
13F-HR	Vanguard Portfolio Management Llc, period 2026-06-30	0002100121-26-001018
13F-HR/A	Vanguard Capital Management Llc, period 2026-03-31	0002100119-26-001311
13F-HR	Vanguard Portfolio Management Llc, period 2026-03-31	0002100121-26-000861
13F-HR	Vanguard Group Inc, period 2025-12-31	0000102909-26-000031
13F-HR	Vanguard Group Inc, period 2025-09-30	0000102909-25-000353
13F-HR	Blackrock, Inc., period 2026-06-30	0002012383-26-003238
13F-HR	Blackrock, Inc., period 2025-12-31	0002012383-26-000920
13F-HR	Blackrock, Inc., period 2025-09-30	0002012383-25-002949
13F-HR/A	State Street Corp, period 2026-06-30	0000093751-26-000583
13F-HR	State Street Corp, period 2026-03-31	0000093751-26-000315
13F-HR	State Street Corp, period 2025-12-31	0000093751-26-000100
13F-HR	State Street Corp, period 2025-09-30	0000093751-25-000651
13F-HR	Fmr Llc, period 2026-06-30	0000315066-26-002260
13F-HR	Fmr Llc, period 2026-03-31	0000315066-26-001390
13F-HR	Fmr Llc, period 2025-12-31	0000315066-26-000611
13F-HR	Fmr Llc, period 2025-09-30	0000315066-25-002929
13F-HR	Invesco Ltd., period 2026-06-30	0000914208-26-000343
13F-HR/A	Invesco Ltd., period 2026-03-31	0000914208-26-000216
13F-HR/A	Invesco Ltd., period 2025-12-31	0000914208-26-000214
13F-HR	Invesco Ltd., period 2025-09-30	0000914208-25-000430
13F-HR	Geode Capital Management, Llc, period 2026-06-30	0001214717-26-000008
13F-HR	Geode Capital Management, Llc, period 2026-03-31	0001214717-26-000006
13F-HR	Geode Capital Management, Llc, period 2025-12-31	0001214717-26-000003
13F-HR	Geode Capital Management, Llc, period 2025-09-30	0001214717-25-000016
13F-HR	Morgan Stanley, period 2026-06-30	0000895421-26-000243
13F-HR	Morgan Stanley, period 2026-03-31	0000895421-26-000183
13F-HR/A	Morgan Stanley, period 2025-12-31	0000895421-26-000187
13F-HR/A	Morgan Stanley, period 2025-09-30	0000895421-26-000186
13F-HR	Price T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2026-06-30	0000080255-26-000519
13F-HR	Price T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2026-03-31	0000080255-26-000381
13F-HR	Price T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2025-12-31	0000080255-26-000231
13F-HR	Price T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2025-09-30	0000080255-25-000782
13F-HR	Capital World Investors, period 2026-06-30	0001422849-26-000113
13F-HR	Capital World Investors, period 2026-03-31	0001422849-26-000046
13F-HR	Capital World Investors, period 2025-12-31	0001422849-26-000010
13F-HR	Capital World Investors, period 2025-09-30	0001422849-25-000069
13F-HR	Capital Research Global Investors, period 2026-06-30	0001422848-26-000094
13F-HR	Capital Research Global Investors, period 2026-03-31	0001422848-26-000041
13F-HR	Capital Research Global Investors, period 2025-12-31	0001422848-26-000005

Form 4 filings with reported transactions (55 of 179 filed Oct 2025 to Sep 2026; the rest report grants only): 0001065280-25-000411, 0001065280-25-000412, 0001065280-25-000414, 0001065280-25-000440, 0001065280-25-000441, 0001065280-25-000442, 0001065280-25-000443, 0001065280-25-000444, 0001065280-25-000446, 0001065280-25-000448, 0001065280-25-000472, 0001065280-26-000002, 0001065280-26-000027, 0001065280-26-000028, 0001065280-26-000029, 0001065280-26-000030, 0001065280-26-000032, 0001065280-26-000046, 0001065280-26-000048, 0001065280-26-000074, 0001065280-26-000075, 0001065280-26-000076, 0001065280-26-000077, 0001065280-26-000078, 0001065280-26-000079, 0001065280-26-000081, 0001065280-26-000085, 0001065280-26-000086, 0001065280-26-000087, 0001065280-26-000089, 0001065280-26-000091, 0001065280-26-000103, 0001065280-26-000134, 0001065280-26-000150, 0001065280-26-000166, 0001065280-26-000167, 0001065280-26-000168, 0001065280-26-000169, 0001065280-26-000170, 0001065280-26-000172, 0001065280-26-000188, 0001065280-26-000191, 0001065280-26-000234, 0001065280-26-000236, 0001065280-26-000238, 0001065280-26-000240, 0001065280-26-000242, 0001065280-26-000246, 0001065280-26-000247, 0001065280-26-000249, 0001065280-26-000269, 0001065280-26-000271, 0001507747-26-000002, 0001543133-26-000002, 0001583109-26-000002

Table A.2. Peer filings used

Company	Filing	Accession number
Walt Disney	FY2025 10K	0001744489-25-000155
Walt Disney	FY2024 10K	0001744489-24-000276
Walt Disney	Q3 FY2026 10Q	0001744489-26-000057
Warner Bros. Discovery	FY2025 10K	0001437107-26-000020
Warner Bros. Discovery	FY2024 10K	0001437107-25-000031
Warner Bros. Discovery	Q2 2026 10Q	0001437107-26-000075
Paramount Skydance	FY2025 10K	0002041610-26-000011
Paramount Skydance	FY2025 10K A	0001140361-26-016758
Paramount Skydance	FY2024 10K ParamountGlobal	0000813828-25-000005
Paramount Skydance	Q2 2026 10Q	0002041610-26-000054
Spotify	FY2025 20F	0001628280-26-006874
Spotify	FY2024 20F	0001639920-25-000003
Spotify	Q2 2026 6K	0001628280-26-052543
Roku	FY2025 10K	0001628280-26-008114
Roku	FY2024 10K	0001428439-25-000013
Roku	Q2 2026 10Q	0001628280-26-054335
Alphabet	FY2025 10K	0001652044-26-000018
Alphabet	FY2024 10K	0001652044-25-000014
Alphabet	Q2 2026 10Q	0001652044-26-000071
Comcast	FY2025 10K	0001628280-26-004994
Comcast	FY2024 10K	0001166691-25-000011
Comcast	Q2 2026 10Q	0001628280-26-049360

Disclaimer: for information only, not financial advice. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Figures come from SEC filings retrieved through the SEC-API.io MCP server and from the sources named above. Scenario values are arithmetic results of stated assumptions. Consult a licensed adviser before investing.