Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.
Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2022 to FY2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 2025 to Q2 2026, the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the earnings releases (Ex 99.1) and supplemental information (Ex 99.2) for Q3 2025 to Q3 2026, the Investor Day release of 23 Sep 2026, the board, officer and vote result filings, the CFO commentary on the earnings calls, the 2026 proxy statement, Schedules 13G and Forms 4 for central index key 63908, together with the filings of Restaurant Brands International, Yum! Brands, Yum China, Wendy's, Domino's Pizza, Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks used in chapters 2 to 4 and 7. Q3 2026 figures come from the Form 8-K Ex 99.1 and Ex 99.2 filed on 4 Nov 2026 and are unaudited. The Q3 2026 Form 10-Q had not been filed on 4 Nov 2026, and the earnings release carries no cash flow statement or balance sheet, so cash flow and balance sheet figures use the latest filed period: the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (30 Jun 2026). CFO and CEO statements from the calls are labelled as stated on the call. Accession numbers appear in the Sources appendix, except for Forms 4. Market prices are last trades of 4 Nov 2026 during the session.
| Segment | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US revenue ($bn) | 8.87 | 9.59 | 10.57 | 10.63 | 10.83 |
| US operating income ($bn) | 4.75 | 5.14 | 5.69 | 5.73 | 5.81 |
| US operating margin (%) | 53.6 | 53.6 | 53.9 | 53.9 | 53.7 |
| International Operated Markets revenue ($bn) | 12.22 | 11.30 | 12.38 | 12.63 | 13.63 |
| International Operated Markets operating income ($bn) | 5.13 | 3.93 | 5.83 | 5.95 | 6.38 |
| International Operated Markets operating margin (%) | 42.0 | 34.8 | 47.1 | 47.1 | 46.8 |
| Developmental Licensed and Corporate revenue ($bn) | 2.14 | 2.30 | 2.54 | 2.66 | 2.43 |
| Developmental Licensed and Corporate operating income ($bn) | 0.47 | 0.31 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Line | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franchised revenues ($bn) | 13.09 | 14.11 | 15.44 | 15.72 | 16.55 |
| Company owned and operated sales ($bn) | 9.79 | 8.75 | 9.74 | 9.78 | 9.69 |
| Other revenues ($bn) | 0.35 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.42 | 0.65 |
| Systemwide sales ($bn) | 112.5 | 118.2 | 129.5 | 130.7 | 139.4 |
| Franchised sales ($bn) | 102.7 | 109.5 | 119.8 | 120.9 | 129.7 |
| Global comparable sales (%) | 17.0 | 10.9 | 9.0 | (0.1) | 3.1 |
| Component | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rents ($bn) | 9.84 | 10.02 | 10.44 |
| Royalties ($bn) | 5.53 | 5.61 | 6.02 |
| Initial fees ($bn) | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Segment | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 13,633 | 13,706 | 13,728 | 13,769 | 13,821 |
| International Operated Markets | 10,643 | 10,845 | 10,868 | 10,918 | 10,986 |
| Developmental Licensed Markets | 20,323 | 20,805 | 21,103 | 21,341 | 21,747 |
| Total | 44,599 | 45,356 | 45,699 | 46,028 | 46,554 |
| of which China | 7,502 | 7,740 | 7,962 | 8,114 | 8,395 |
| Franchised share of restaurants (%) | n/a | 95.5 | n/a | n/a | 95.9 |
| Line | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US revenue ($m) | 2,696 | 2,696 | 2,479 | 2,726 | 2,685 |
| US franchised revenues ($m) | 1,906 | 1,886 | 1,750 | 1,942 | 1,943 |
| US Company operated sales ($m) | 790 | 810 | 729 | 784 | 742 |
| US operating income ($m) | 1,498 | 1,481 | 1,380 | 1,573 | 1,625 |
| US operating margin (%, computed) | 55.6 | 54.9 | 55.7 | 57.7 | 60.5 |
| US comparable sales (%) | 2.4 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 0.8 | (0.2) |
| US franchised sales ($m) | 13,376 | 13,568 | 12,388 | 13,523 | 13,582 |
| US Company operated margins ($m) | 90 | 95 | 59 | 91 | 75 |
| US restaurants | 13,633 | 13,706 | 13,728 | 13,769 | 13,821 |
| Company and line | Period | Filed detail | Revenue or sales ($m) | Growth (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's US | Q3 2026 | comparable sales (0.2%); margin is segment operating income over revenue | 2,685 | (0.4) | 60.5 |
| Burger King US and Canada (RBI) | Q3 2026 | BK US comparable sales +8.4%; 6,979 restaurants; net restaurant growth (0.9%); adjusted operating income | 396 | 2.3 | 34.3 |
| Taco Bell Division (Yum) | Q3 2026 | Taco Bell US same store sales (4%), system sales (3%); 9,102 restaurants | 770 | 5.5 | 33.1 |
| Wendy's | quarter to 28 Jun 2026 | US same restaurant sales (7.0%); US Company restaurant margin 13.8% against 16.2% | 570.6 | 1.7 | 13.9 |
| Domino's US retail sales | 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026 | US same store sales +0.3% against +5.2%; 7,257 stores; consolidated margin | 2,368.6 | 2.1 | 20.4 |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill | Q3 2026 | comparable sales +2.1% (check +1.3%, transactions +0.8%); restaurant level margin 23.3% against 24.5% | 3,293.2 | 9.6 | 13.7 |
| Line | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOM revenue ($m) | 3,606 | 3,538 | 3,258 | 3,543 | 3,598 |
| IOM franchised revenues ($m) | 1,962 | 1,924 | 1,782 | 1,936 | 2,007 |
| IOM Company operated sales ($m) | 1,645 | 1,614 | 1,477 | 1,607 | 1,591 |
| IOM operating income ($m) | 1,761 | 1,696 | 1,507 | 1,723 | 1,796 |
| IOM operating margin (%, computed) | 48.8 | 47.9 | 46.3 | 48.6 | 49.9 |
| IOM comparable sales (%) | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| IOM Systemwide sales growth, reported (%) | n/a | 14 | 16 | 6 | 3 |
| IOM Systemwide sales growth, constant currency (%) | n/a | 7 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| IOM franchised sales ($m) | 11,439 | 11,305 | 10,498 | 11,456 | 11,931 |
| IOM restaurants | 10,643 | 10,845 | 10,868 | 10,918 | 10,986 |
| Company and line | Period | Filed detail | Revenue or sales ($m) | Growth (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's International Operated Markets | Q3 2026 | comparable sales +1.4%; margin is segment operating income over revenue | 3,598 | (0.2) | 49.9 |
| RBI International segment | Q3 2026 | system sales $5.89bn, +9.0% in constant currency; comparable sales +3.9%; adjusted operating income | 289 | 7.8 | 70.9 |
| Yum KFC Division | Q3 2026 | system sales $10.05bn, +6% excluding currency; same store sales +1%; 35,421 restaurants, +7% | 948 | 7.8 | 44.8 |
| Tim Hortons segment (RBI) | Q3 2026 | comparable sales +1.5% (Canada +1.8%); adjusted operating income | 1,136 | 1.0 | 27.9 |
| Domino's International retail sales | 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026 | +4.3% excluding currency; royalties and fees $83.7m against $78.5m; 15,449 stores | 2,471.8 | 4.0 | n/a |
| Line | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDL and Corporate revenue ($m) | 625 | 613 | 587 | 648 | 684 |
| IDL and Corporate operating income ($m) | 97 | (21) | 67 | 42 | 174 |
| IDL comparable sales (%) | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 4.2 |
| IDL Systemwide sales growth, constant currency (%) | n/a | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| IDL franchised sales ($m) | 9,279 | 9,146 | 9,030 | 9,473 | 10,113 |
| IDL restaurants | 20,323 | 20,805 | 21,103 | 21,341 | 21,747 |
| China restaurants | 7,502 | 7,740 | 7,962 | 8,114 | 8,395 |
| Other revenues ($m) | 151 | 162 | 193 | 182 | 189 |
| Loyalty member sales, trailing twelve months ($bn) | 34 | 37 | 38 | 40 | 41 |
| Company and line | Period | Filed detail | Revenue or sales ($m) | Growth (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's IDL franchised sales | Q3 2026 | IDL comparable sales +4.2%; 21,747 restaurants; China comparable sales negative | 10,113 | 9.0 | n/a |
| Yum China | Q3 2026 | same store sales at 97% of prior year, transactions +3%; 19,989 stores, 19% franchised | 3,477 | 8.5 | 13.0 |
| Yum! Brands, consolidated | Q3 2026 | digital mix 64%, digital system sales above $9bn; 955 gross new units; margin not shown due to the Pizza Hut sale gain | 2,054 | 3.8 | n/a |
| Restaurant Brands International, consolidated | Q3 2026 | system wide sales $12.97bn, +6.2%; net restaurant growth 3.0% to 33,401 | 2,525 | 3.1 | 27.6 |
| Domino's Pizza, consolidated | 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026 | global retail sales $4.84bn, +3.2% excluding currency; 956 net new stores over four quarters to 22,706 | 1,185.6 | 3.4 | 20.4 |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill | Q3 2026 | digital sales 38.8% of food and beverage revenue against 36.7% | 3,293.2 | 9.6 | 13.7 |
| Line item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.2 | 23.2 | 25.5 | 25.9 | 26.9 |
| Gross profit | 12.6 | 13.2 | 14.6 | 14.7 | 15.4 |
| Selling, general and administrative | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 |
| Operating income | 10.4 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 12.4 |
| Net income | 7.5 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.6 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 10.04 | 8.33 | 11.56 | 11.39 | 11.95 |
| Operating cash flow | 9.1 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 10.6 |
| Capital expenditure | (2.0) | (1.9) | (2.4) | (2.8) | (3.4) |
| Free cash flow | 7.1 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 7.2 |
| Stock based compensation | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Cash and investments | 4.7 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Total debt | 35.6 | 35.9 | 39.3 | 38.4 | 40.0 |
| Total equity | (4.6) | (6.0) | (4.7) | (3.8) | (1.8) |
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($bn) | 7.08 | 7.16 | 1.1% |
| Gross profit ($bn) | 4.10 | 4.21 | 2.7% |
| Operating income ($bn) | 3.36 | 3.60 | 7.1% |
| Net income ($bn) | 2.28 | 2.49 | 9.1% |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 3.18 | 3.51 | 10.4% |
| Operating margin (%) | 47.4 | 50.2 | 2.8 pts |
| Net margin (%) | 32.2 | 34.7 | 2.6 pts |
| Ratio | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth and margins | |||||
| Revenue growth (%) | n/a | (0.2) | 10.0 | 1.7 | 3.7 |
| Operating margin (%) | 44.6 | 40.4 | 45.7 | 45.2 | 46.1 |
| Net margin (%) | 32.5 | 26.6 | 33.2 | 31.7 | 31.9 |
| FCF margin (%) | 30.6 | 23.7 | 28.5 | 25.7 | 26.7 |
| Cost and investment intensity | |||||
| SBC (%) revenue | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Capex (%) revenue | 8.8 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 12.5 |
| Effective tax rate (%) | 17.3 | 21.1 | 19.5 | 20.5 | 21.4 |
| Returns | |||||
| ROA (%) | 14.0 | 11.8 | 15.9 | 14.8 | 14.9 |
| Asset turnover (x) | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| Liquidity and leverage | |||||
| Current ratio (x) | 1.78 | 1.43 | 1.16 | 1.19 | 0.95 |
| Net cash ($bn) | (30.9) | (33.3) | (34.8) | (37.3) | (39.2) |
| Efficiency and cash quality | |||||
| Days sales outstanding | 29 | 33 | 36 | 34 | 33 |
| FCF to net income (x) | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.84 |
| Shareholder returns (%) FCF | 67 | 147 | 105 | 115 | 100 |
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap ($bn) | 195.7 |
| Enterprise value, debt and cash at 30 Jun 2026 ($bn) | 234.7 |
| P/E on TTM Q3 2026 GAAP EPS (x) | 21.9 |
| P/E on TTM Q3 2026 adjusted EPS (x) | 21.4 |
| EV/Sales on TTM Q3 2026 revenue (x) | 8.4 |
| FCF yield on TTM Q2 2026 free cash flow (%) | 4.0 |
| Dividend yield on $1.93 quarterly rate (%) | 2.8 |
| Line | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franchised restaurants occupancy expenses (derived) (% of revenue) | 9.4 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| Company operated restaurant expenses (derived) (% of revenue) | 30.7 | 30.8 | 31.2 | 30.1 | 29.2 |
| Other operating costs, net of other operating income (derived) (% of revenue) | 11.9 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 10.2 |
| Impairment and other charges (% of revenue) | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Operating income (% of revenue) | 47.4 | 45.0 | 45.3 | 47.0 | 50.2 |
| Franchised margins ($m) | 3,697 | 3,632 | 3,331 | 3,713 | 3,800 |
| Company operated margins ($m) | 391 | 377 | 285 | 387 | 392 |
| Franchised margin as % of franchised revenues | 84.7 | 84.2 | 83.1 | 84.5 | 84.7 |
| Company operated margin as % of Company operated sales | 15.3 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 15.3 | 15.8 |
| Line | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAAP operating income ($m) | 3,357 | 3,595 | 11,712 | 12,393 |
| Impairment and other charges ($m) | 39 | 56 | 291 | 229 |
| Non GAAP operating income ($m) | 3,396 | 3,651 | 12,003 | 12,621 |
| GAAP operating margin (%) | 47.4 | 50.2 | 45.2 | 46.1 |
| Non GAAP operating margin (%) | 48.0 | 51.0 | 46.3 | 46.9 |
| GAAP diluted EPS ($) | 3.18 | 3.51 | 11.39 | 11.95 |
| Non GAAP diluted EPS ($) | 3.22 | 3.57 | 11.72 | 12.20 |
| Item | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Q2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 9.45 | 10.55 | 11.35 |
| Capital expenditure | (2.78) | (3.37) | (3.59) |
| Free cash flow | 6.67 | 7.19 | 7.76 |
| Dividends paid | (4.87) | (5.12) | (5.23) |
| Share repurchases | (2.82) | (2.06) | (2.33) |
| Depreciation and amortization | 2.10 | 2.20 | 2.27 |
| Total debt at period end | 38.42 | 39.97 | 39.86 |
| Cash and equivalents at period end | 1.09 | 0.77 | 0.82 |
| Shareholders' equity (deficit) at period end | (3.80) | (1.79) | (1.02) |
| Item | Outlook | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 capex, first outlook | $3.7bn to $3.9bn, against $3.4bn in 2025 | 8-K Ex 99.2, 11 Feb 2026; unchanged 7 May and 4 Aug 2026 |
| 2026 capex, latest | about $3.7bn, the low end of the earlier range | 8-K Ex 99.2, 4 Nov 2026 |
| 2026 openings, first outlook | about 2,600 gross (about 750 US and IOM); about 2,100 net | 8-K Ex 99.2, 11 Feb 2026; unchanged 7 May and 4 Aug 2026 |
| 2026 openings, lowered | about 2,500 gross (about 700 US and IOM, about 1,800 by licensees and affiliates); about 2,100 net unchanged | 8-K Ex 99.2, 4 Nov 2026 |
| Global restaurant target | 50,000 by end 2027, moved to end 2028 | FY2025 Form 10-K; 8-K Ex 99.2, 4 Aug and 4 Nov 2026 |
| 2026 currency effect on EPS | $0.20 to $0.30 benefit, cut to about $0.15 | stated on the Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 calls |
| 2026 unchanged items | unit expansion adds about 2.5% to Systemwide sales growth; operating margin mid to high 40% range; SG&A about 2.2% of Systemwide sales; interest expense +4% to 6%; tax rate 21% to 23%; free cash flow conversion low to mid 80% range | 8-K Ex 99.2, 11 Feb to 4 Nov 2026 |
| 2030 operating margin and G&A | operating margin low to mid 50% range; G&A about 1.9% of Systemwide sales | 8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026 |
| 2027 to 2030 capital | baseline capex about $3bn a year plus $1.5bn to $2bn of cumulative capital partnering support; free cash flow conversion mid to high 80% range by 2030 | 8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026 |
| Unit growth and franchisees | unit expansion nearly 2.5% of Systemwide sales growth in 2027, about 2% by 2030; about $8.5bn of franchisee support through 2036 ($5bn through 2030); about 250 bps of restaurant efficiency, about $100,000 of cash flow per average US restaurant | 8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026 |
| Share and loyalty targets | +1.5 points of share in chicken and in beverages by 2030; 250m 90 day active loyalty users and $45bn of loyalty sales by end 2027 | 8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026; FY2025 Form 10-K |
| Franchised mix | about 98% franchised by end 2028, from about 95%; about 175 restaurants refranchised so far in 2026 | stated on the Q3 2026 call |
| Speaker | Date and source | Statement |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and CEO | 4 Nov 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “we're encouraged by improvement as the quarter progressed following our intervention on value” |
| Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and CEO | 4 Nov 2026, stated on the call | “Nothing is real until it's real in the restaurants.” |
| Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and CEO | 11 Feb 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “McDonald's value leadership is working” |
| Item | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| Item 5 Market | Dividends paid for 50 consecutive years with annual increases; about 5.1m holders of record and beneficial owners at Jan 31 2026. $15.0bn buyback program effective Jan 1 2025; $2.0bn used in 2025; $11.7bn remaining at Jun 30 2026. |
| Item 7A Market Risk | Debt obligations $40.0bn before fair value and deferred cost adjustments (carrying $39.97bn): 97% fixed rate, 4.0% weighted average rate, 39% foreign currency denominated ($15.6bn). Ratings A2 and P2 short term, BBB+/Baa1 long term. Largest net asset exposures: AUD $1.77bn, GBP $1.42bn, PLN $820m. |
| Item 8 Debt note | $4.0bn unused committed line of credit to June 2028; $798m commercial paper and $725m current maturities classified as long term at end 2025. $10.3bn of $15.0bn board borrowing authority remained. |
| Item 8 Franchise note | Future gross minimum rent payments due under conventional franchise arrangements total $31.45bn ($3.04bn in 2026). Net property under franchise arrangements $22.8bn incl. land $7.1bn. |
| Item 8, other operating income and expense | Restructuring charges for Accelerating the Organization: $250m (2023), $221m (2024), $226m (2025); program expected to complete during 2027. Equity in earnings of affiliates $190m in 2025. |
| Item 8 Equity method | Owns 48% of Grand Foods Holding (McDonald's China, Hong Kong, Macau), carrying value $2.13bn at Jun 30 2026; stake raised in 2024 for $1.8bn. Also holds a stake in McDonald's Japan Holdings. |
| Q2 2026 10-Q MD&A | 6M 2026 cash from operations $5.2bn, exceeding capex by $3.7bn; financing outflow $3.6bn, up $1.5bn on lower bond issuance. |
| Q2 2026 10-Q MD&A | Q2 2026 effective tax rate 19.5% (discrete benefits from restructuring initiatives) vs 21.3%. |
| Q2 2026 10-Q fair value | Debt fair value $38.3bn vs carrying $39.9bn at Jun 30 2026. |
| Q2 2026 10-Q Item 5 | No officer or director adopted, modified or terminated a Rule preset trading plan in Q2 2026. |
| Company | Revenue TTM ($bn) | Revenue growth (%) | Operating margin (%) | Net margin (%) | FCF margin (%) | ROE (%) | Net cash ($bn) | Market value ($bn) | EV/Sales (x) | P/E TTM (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | 27.8 | 1.1 | 46.9 | 32.4 | 28.0 | n/a | (39.0) | 196 | 8.5 | 21.9 |
| YUM | 8.7 | 12.2 | 31.0 | 25.4 | 19.3 | n/a | (11.6) | 45 | 6.5 | 20.2 |
| QSR | 9.8 | 3.1 | 27.0 | 20.1 | 16.2 | 36.8 | (12.3) | 35 | 4.8 | 17.8 |
| CMG | 12.7 | 9.6 | 14.1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 48.5 | 0.9 | 44 | 3.4 | 31.8 |
| SBUX | 37.9 | (4.5) | 9.7 | 6.7 | 9.8 | n/a | (9.1) | 124 | 3.5 | 49.0 |
| DPZ | 5.1 | 3.4 | 19.7 | 12.0 | 12.5 | n/a | (4.7) | 11 | 3.1 | 18.4 |
| Business | Period | Revenue or sales ($m) | Growth (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's US | Q3 2026 | 2,685 | (0.4) | 60.5 |
| Burger King US and Canada (RBI) | Q3 2026 | 396 | 2.3 | 34.3 |
| Taco Bell Division (Yum) | Q3 2026 | 770 | 5.5 | 33.1 |
| Wendy's | quarter to 28 Jun 2026 | 570.6 | 1.7 | 13.9 |
| Domino's US retail sales | 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026 | 2,368.6 | 2.1 | 20.4 |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill | Q3 2026 | 3,293.2 | 9.6 | 13.7 |
| RBI International segment | Q3 2026 | 289 | 7.8 | 70.9 |
| Yum KFC Division | Q3 2026 | 948 | 7.8 | 44.8 |
| Tim Hortons segment (RBI) | Q3 2026 | 1,136 | 1.0 | 27.9 |
| Yum China | Q3 2026 | 3,477 | 8.5 | 13.0 |
| Restaurant Brands International, consolidated | Q3 2026 | 2,525 | 3.1 | 27.6 |
| Domino's Pizza, consolidated | 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026 | 1,185.6 | 3.4 | 20.4 |
| Date | Items | Event |
|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2025 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q3 2025 results: revenue $7.08bn (+3%), global comps +3.6% (US +2.4%), diluted EPS $3.18, non GAAP EPS $3.22. |
| 10 Feb 2026 | 5.02, 9.01 | Board raised to 12 directors and elected James D. Farley, Jr. effective Feb 4 2026. |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q4 and FY2025 results: Q4 revenue $7.01bn (+10%), Q4 global comps +5.7% (US +6.8%), Q4 EPS $3.03; FY2025 revenue $26.89bn (+4%), EPS $11.95, Systemwide sales over $139bn; 2026 outlook incl. capex $3.7bn to $3.9bn and about 2,600 openings. |
| 2 Apr 2026 | 5.02, amendment | Amendment: Farley appointed to Audit and Finance and Corporate Responsibility Committees on Mar 30 2026. |
| 7 May 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q1 2026 results: revenue $6.52bn (+9%), global comps +3.8% (US +3.9%), EPS $2.78, non GAAP EPS $2.83; repurchased 1.3m shares for $393m. |
| 22 May 2026 | 5.07 | Annual meeting May 20 2026: all 12 directors elected, say on pay approved (478.2m for, 24.6m against), independent Chair and written consent proposals failed. |
| 4 Aug 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q2 2026 results: revenue $7.10bn (+4%), global comps +1.3% (US +0.8%), EPS $3.32, non GAAP EPS $3.38; repurchased 3.0m shares for $858m; 50,000 unit target moved to 2028. |
| 4 Aug 2026 | 5.02, 7.01, 9.01 | Joseph Erlinger left as President, McDonald's USA effective Aug 4 2026 (adviser until early 2027); Skye Anderson (26 years at McDonald's, US COO) appointed President, McDonald's USA. |
| 23 Sep 2026 | 7.01, 9.01 | Investor Day: McDonald's > NEXT strategy; operating margin target low to mid 50% by 2030, G&A about 1.9% of Systemwide sales by 2030, about $3bn annual baseline capex 2027 to 2030 plus $1.5bn to $2bn partnering capex, about $8.5bn franchisee partnering support through 2036, FCF conversion mid to high 80% by 2030; Make It Golden launched Oct 5. |
| 4 Nov 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q3 2026 results: revenue $7.16bn (+1%), global comps +1.5% (US (0.2%), IOM +1.4%, IDL +4.2%), operating income $3.60bn (+7%), EPS $3.51 (+10%), non GAAP EPS $3.57; dividend raised 4% to $1.93; 2026 capex cut to about $3.7bn and openings to about 2,500. |
| Contract | Terms |
|---|---|
| Franchise arrangements | Conventional franchise terms generally 20 years; future gross minimum rent payments $31.45bn ($3.05bn in 2026); net property under franchise arrangements $22.8bn incl. land of $7.1bn (FY2025 Form 10-K). |
| McDonald's NEXT partnering support | About $8.5bn of rent relief and capital support to franchisees through 2036, about $5bn through 2030; $1.5bn to $2bn of capital partnering from 2027 to 2030 (8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026). |
| Debt and credit line | Debt $40.0bn before fair value adjustments at end 2025, 97% fixed, 4.0% average rate, 39% in foreign currency; $4.0bn unused committed line of credit to Jun 2028; $798m of commercial paper and $725m of current maturities classified as long term. |
| Grand Foods Holding (China) | 48% equity stake in the holder of McDonald's China, Hong Kong and Macau, raised in 2024 for $1.8bn; carrying value $2.13bn at 30 Jun 2026. |
| Share repurchase program | $15.0bn program effective 1 Jan 2025; $11.73bn remaining at 30 Jun 2026; Q2 2026 repurchases of 2,973,917 shares at $288.62 on average. |
| Guarantees | Guaranteed loans of about $85m at end 2025 with no carrying value. |
| Proposal | For (bn votes) | Against (bn votes) | Abstain (bn votes) | For as % of votes cast | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elect Christopher Kempczinski (lowest support) | 0.465 | 0.039 | 0.001 | 92.3 | Elected |
| Elect Jennifer Taubert (highest support) | 0.502 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 99.6 | Elected |
| Elect James Farley, Jr. | 0.499 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 98.9 | Elected |
| Say on pay (advisory) | 0.478 | 0.025 | 0.002 | 95.1 | Approved |
| Ratify Ernst and Young as auditor for 2026 | 0.564 | 0.031 | 0.001 | 94.8 | Approved |
| Shareholder proposal, independent chair policy | 0.110 | 0.390 | 0.005 | 21.9 | Not approved |
| Shareholder proposal, right to act by written consent | 0.210 | 0.292 | 0.003 | 41.9 | Not approved |
| Holder | Source | Shares (m) | Share of class (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard, The Vanguard Group | Proxy statement, holdings at 31 Dec 2025 | 71.64 | 10.03 |
| Vanguard Capital Management | Schedule 13G 0002100119-26-000873, event 31 Mar 2026 | 53.49 | 7.52 |
| BlackRock | Proxy statement citing Schedule 13G amendment of 26 Jan 2024 | 51.97 | 7.3 |
| State Street | Schedule 13G 0000093751-26-000496, event 30 Jun 2026 | 36.12 | 5.1 |
| JPMorgan Chase | Schedule 13G amendment 0000019617-26-000286, event 30 Jun 2026 | 30.96 | 4.3 |
| Risk | Disclosure and change |
|---|---|
| US traffic and value | US comparable sales (0.2%) in Q3 2026 on negative guest counts; the US made 40.3% of FY2025 revenue; value factors explained about two thirds of the Q2 2026 US traffic shortfall (stated on the Q2 2026 call). |
| McDonald's NEXT execution | The Q3 2026 supplemental strategy factor grew from 289 to 456 words, targets operating margin and restaurant productivity, and warns that benefits may come later than expected or not at all; implementation spans several years and varies by market. |
| Franchisee funding capacity | The franchise factor adds NEXT modernisation investment by franchisees; 95.9% of restaurants were franchised at 30 Sep 2026; about $8.5bn of support through 2036 (8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026). |
| AI tools and AI enabled attacks | The FY2025 Form 10-K adds AI enabled cyberattacks, deepfakes and risks from the company's own AI tools; the Q3 2026 supplemental names the AI enabled ArchIQ rollout, Make It Golden and generative AI investments that depend on franchisee alignment. |
| GLP 1 weight loss drugs | Weight loss medications entered the industry trends factor in the FY2025 Form 10-K; the Q3 2026 supplemental names GLP 1 drugs and the response with flexible portion sizes and high protein options. |
| China and developmental markets | China comparable sales negative in Q2 and Q3 2026 while China restaurants rose to 8,395; 48% Grand Foods stake carried at $2.13bn; equity earnings of affiliates $75m in Q3 2026. |
| Currency and leverage | About 68% of FY2025 operating income earned outside the US; 39% of debt in foreign currency; debt $39.86bn against a shareholders' deficit of $1.02bn at 30 Jun 2026. |
| Measure | 10-K FY2024 | 10-K FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Risk factors (count) | 25 | 25 |
| Words in Item 1A | 6,249 | 6,487 |
| Change | Risk factor | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| Reworded | IT failures, network breaches or misuse of technology tools | Heading adds misuse of technology tools; body grew from 486 to 584 words and adds AI enabled cyberattacks and deepfakes, operational disruption, data integrity and algorithmic decision risks from the company's own AI tools, and compliance duties under emerging US and global AI rules on transparency, bias and explainability. |
| Reworded | Privacy and data protection law compliance | Grew from 115 to 160 words: adds heightened risk from expanding digital engagement, data collection and AI personalisation under US state rules and the EU AI Act, with possible fines, litigation and reputational harm. |
| Reworded | Preserving the value or relevance of the brand | Body cut from 286 to 216 words; the passage on rapidly changing consumer acceptance and evolving nutrition and health studies was moved to the industry trends factor, which now names changes to dietary guidelines and use of weight loss medications. |
| Filing | Change disclosed |
|---|---|
| 10-Q Q1 2026 (Mar 2026 quarter) filed 7 May 2026 | Part II Item 1A refers to the full Risk Factors section in Part I Item 2; the text is identical to the FY2025 10-K apart from page furniture (25 factors, no changes). |
| 10-Q Q2 2026 (Jun 2026 quarter) filed 7 Aug 2026 | Same 25 factors; the only edit adds the McDonald's NEXT strategy next to Accelerating the Arches in the business strategy factor. |
| 8-K Ex 99.2 Q3 2026 supplemental filed 4 Nov 2026 (no Q3 2026 10-Q filed as of 4 Nov 2026) | Rewords 3 factors after the 23 Sep 2026 Investor Day: the strategy factor (289 to 456 words) now targets operating margin and restaurant productivity under McDonald's NEXT, names AI enabled ArchIQ and Make It Golden and warns benefits may come later than expected or not at all; the industry trends factor adds GLP 1 weight loss drugs and new portion size and high protein menu changes; the customer experience factor adds training, hospitality and generative AI investments that depend on franchisee alignment. The franchise factor adds NEXT modernisation investment by franchisees. |
| Factor | Current value | Best case requires | Evidence in filings and calls |
|---|---|---|---|
| US comparable sales and guest counts | Q3 2026 (0.2%), nine months +1.4% (8-K Ex 99.2); guest counts negative | +3% or more with positive guest counts from 2027 | value test in about 1,900 restaurants, national launch early 2027 (stated on the call) |
| Net unit growth | 46,554 restaurants, +4.4%; about 2,100 net additions in 2026 | nearly 2.5% of Systemwide sales growth in 2027, held toward 2030 | 8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026; 8-K Ex 99.2, 4 Nov 2026 |
| Operating margin | TTM GAAP 46.9%; nine months 2026 non GAAP 48.3% | low to mid 50% range before 2030 | Investor Day target; about 98% franchised by end 2028 (stated on the call) |
| Franchisee economics under NEXT | US franchisee cash flow about $500,000 per restaurant (stated on the call) | about 250 bps of efficiency, about $100,000 per US restaurant, about four year payback | 8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026 |
| Developmental markets and China | IDL comparable sales +4.2%; China 8,395 restaurants, China comparable sales negative | China comparable sales turn positive with unit growth continuing | 8-K Ex 99.1 and Ex 99.2, 4 Nov 2026 |
| Capital intensity and cash conversion | free cash flow conversion 84% (2025); 2026 capex about $3.7bn | mid to high 80% conversion by 2030 with about $3bn baseline capex | 8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026 |
| Measure | Worst case | Base case | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%) | 1.5 | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| Revenue, 2029 ($bn) | 29.1 | 31.3 | 33.1 |
| Operating margin, 2029 (%) | 46.0 | 49.0 | 51.0 |
| Net income, 2029 ($bn) | 9.2 | 10.7 | 11.9 |
| EPS, 2029 ($) | 13.21 | 15.56 | 17.52 |
| Exit P/E (x) | 18.0 | 22.0 | 25.0 |
| Implied price ($) | 238 | 342 | 438 |
| Change against $276.50 (%) | (14) | 24 | 58 |
| Implied annual return (%) | (4.9) | 7.4 | 16.6 |
| Revenue CAGR \ Operating margin | 46% | 48% | 49% | 51% | 53% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $299 | $313 | $321 | $335 | $350 |
| 3% | $309 | $324 | $331 | $347 | $362 |
| 4% | $319 | $335 | $342 | $358 | $374 |
| 5% | $329 | $345 | $354 | $370 | $386 |
| 6% | $340 | $357 | $365 | $381 | $398 |
| Exit P/E \ Operating margin | 46% | 48% | 49% | 51% | 53% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18x | $261 | $274 | $280 | $293 | $306 |
| 20x | $290 | $304 | $311 | $325 | $340 |
| 22x | $319 | $335 | $342 | $358 | $374 |
| 25x | $362 | $380 | $389 | $407 | $425 |
| 28x | $406 | $426 | $436 | $456 | $476 |
This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 4 November 2026.
All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Call statements are taken from the Q3 2025 to Q3 2026 earnings calls held by the company and are labelled as stated on the call.
| Form | Period | Filed | Accession number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | Q3 2026 | 4 Nov 2026 | 0000063908-26-000080 |
| 8-K Ex 99.2 | Q3 2026 | 4 Nov 2026 | 0000063908-26-000080 |
| 8-K | Investor Day | 23 Sep 2026 | 0000063908-26-000076 |
| 10-Q | Q2 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | 0000063908-26-000073 |
| 8-K | Q2 2026 | 4 Aug 2026 | 0000063908-26-000067 |
| 8-K | Executive change | 4 Aug 2026 | 0000063908-26-000069 |
| 8-K | Annual meeting | 22 May 2026 | 0000063908-26-000055 |
| 10-Q | Q1 2026 | 7 May 2026 | 0000063908-26-000051 |
| 8-K | Q1 2026 | 7 May 2026 | 0000063908-26-000048 |
| DEF 14A | 2026 proxy | 7 Apr 2026 | 0001193125-26-145548 |
| 10-K | FY2025 | 24 Feb 2026 | 0000063908-26-000035 |
| 8-K | Q4 2025 | 11 Feb 2026 | 0000063908-26-000032 |
| 10-Q | Q3 2025 | 5 Nov 2025 | 0000063908-25-000059 |
| 10-Q | Q2 2025 | 6 Aug 2025 | 0000063908-25-000039 |
| 10-Q | Q1 2025 | 12 May 2025 | 0000063908-25-000025 |
| 10-K | FY2023 | 22 Feb 2024 | 0000063908-24-000072 |
| 10-K | FY2022 | 24 Feb 2023 | 0000063908-23-000012 |
| Schedule 13G | 2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | 0000093751-26-000496 |
| Schedule 13G/A | 2026 | 22 Jul 2026 | 0000019617-26-000286 |
| Schedule 13G | 2026 | 30 Apr 2026 | 0002100119-26-000873 |
| Company | Form | Filed | Accession number |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's | 10-K FY2024 | 25 Feb 2025 | 0000063908-25-000012 |
| McDonald's | 8-K | 5 Nov 2025 | 0000063908-25-000057 |
| McDonald's | 8-K | 10 Feb 2026 | 0000063908-26-000028 |
| McDonald's | 8-K | 2 Apr 2026 | 0000063908-26-000042 |
| Yum! Brands | 10-Q | 2026 (latest 10-Q) | 0001041061-26-000160 |
| Restaurant Brands International | 10-Q | 2026 (latest 10-Q) | 0001618756-26-000056 |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill | 10-Q | 2026 (latest 10-Q) | 0001058090-26-000104 |
| Domino's Pizza | 10-Q | 2026 (latest 10-Q) | 0001286681-26-000040 |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 28 Oct 2026 | 0001058090-26-000103 |
| Domino's Pizza | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 13 Oct 2026 | 0001286681-26-000039 |
| Restaurant Brands International | 8-K Ex 99 | 29 Oct 2026 | 0001618756-26-000051 |
| Wendy's | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 7 Aug 2026 | 0001193125-26-339132 |
| Yum China | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 3 Nov 2026 | 0001193125-26-444429 |
| Yum! Brands | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 3 Nov 2026 | 0001041061-26-000195 |
| Filed | Exhibit | Document | Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2025 | EX-99.1 | Q3 2025 results release | Global comparable sales up 3.6%: US 2.4%, International Operated Markets 4.3%, International Developmental Licensed Markets 4.7%; Systemwide sales above $36bn, up 8% (6% in constant currency); loyalty sales about $34bn over twelve months across 60 markets |
| 5 Nov 2025 | EX-99.2 | Q3 2025 supplemental information | US revenue (franchised plus company operated) $2.70bn; International Operated Markets $3.61bn, up 10%; Operating margin 46.5% against 45.3%; nine month non GAAP operating margin 47.2% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | EX-99.1 | Ford CEO James Farley elected to the board | Farley elected effective 4 Feb 2026, raising the board to 12 members; Board states half of its directors joined since 2022 |
| 11 Feb 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q4 and FY2025 results release | Q4 global comparable sales up 5.7%: US 6.8%, International Operated Markets 5.2%, International Developmental Licensed Markets 4.5%, with positive global guest counts; FY2025 Systemwide sales above $139bn, up 7% (5% in constant currency); loyalty sales up 20% to nearly $37bn; 90 day active loyalty users up 19% to nearly 210m |
| 11 Feb 2026 | EX-99.2 | Q4 and FY2025 supplemental information and 2026 outlook | FY2025 operating income by segment: US $5.81bn (up 1%), International Operated Markets $6.38bn (up 7%), Developmental Licensed and Corporate $203m; FY2025 franchised sales $129.7bn: US $51.9bn, International Operated Markets $42.4bn, Developmental Licensed $35.3bn (up 12%) |
| 2 Apr 2026 | 8-K amendment body (no exhibits; Item 5.02) | Farley committee assignments | On 30 Mar 2026 the board appointed James Farley to the Audit and Finance Committee and the Corporate Responsibility Committee |
| 7 May 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q1 2026 results release | Global comparable sales up 3.8%: US 3.9%, International Operated Markets 3.9%, International Developmental Licensed Markets 3.4%; Systemwide sales above $34bn, up 11% (6% in constant currency); loyalty sales above $38bn over twelve months |
| 7 May 2026 | EX-99.2 | Q1 2026 supplemental information | International Operated Markets revenue $3.26bn, up 14%; US revenue $2.48bn, up 3%; Operating margin 45.3% against 44.5%; effective tax rate 22.0% against 19.8% |
| 22 May 2026 | 8-K body (no exhibits; Item 5.07) | 2026 annual meeting vote results | Meeting held 20 May 2026; all 12 directors elected; support of votes cast ranged from 92.3% (Chris Kempczinski) to 99.6% (Jennifer Taubert); Say on pay approved with 95.1% of votes cast |
| 4 Aug 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q2 2026 results release | Global comparable sales up 1.3%: US 0.8%, International Operated Markets 1.5%, International Developmental Licensed Markets 1.9%; US guest counts negative; Systemwide sales $37bn, up 5% (4% in constant currency); twelve month loyalty sales up over 20% to $40bn; 90 day active users up 13% to nearly 220m |
| 4 Aug 2026 | EX-99.2 | Q2 2026 supplemental information | US operating income $1.57bn, up 3%; International Operated Markets $1.72bn, up 5%; Developmental Licensed and Corporate $42m against $70m; Operating margin 46.2%; tax rate 19.5% on discrete items |
| 4 Aug 2026 | EX-99.1 | Skye Anderson named President of McDonald's USA | Anderson, 26 years at McDonald's and US Chief Operating Officer since earlier in 2026, appointed 4 Aug 2026 to lead nearly 14,000 US restaurants; Succeeds Joe Erlinger, who led the US business for almost seven years; per Item 5.02 he stays as adviser until early 2027 with no change to pay |
| 23 Sep 2026 | EX-99.1 | Investor Day: McDonald's NEXT strategy and 2030 targets | Targets 1.5 percentage points of share gains in both chicken and beverages by 2030 while keeping beef share leadership; Operating margin target of low to mid 50% range by 2030; G&A about 1.9% of Systemwide sales; free cash flow conversion mid to high 80% range |
| 4 Nov 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q3 2026 results release | Global comparable sales up 1.5%: US down 0.2%, International Operated Markets up 1.4%, International Developmental Licensed Markets up 4.2%; China comparable sales negative; Systemwide sales above $38bn, up 4%; loyalty sales $41bn over twelve months and above $11bn in the quarter |
| 4 Nov 2026 | EX-99.2 | Q3 2026 supplemental information | US operating income $1.63bn, up 8%; International Operated Markets $1.80bn, up 2%; Developmental Licensed and Corporate $174m against $97m; Other operating income $139m against $37m, including $97m of gains on sales of restaurant businesses, mostly in the US |