November 4, 2026·45 min read

McDonald's Corporation (MCD), Financial Analysis

Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.

Total revenues Q3 2026
$7.16bn
+1.1% year on year (Q3 2025 $7.08bn)
Total operating costs and expenses Q3 2026
$3.56bn
(4.3%) year on year (Q3 2025 $3.72bn)
Operating margin Q3 2026
50.2%
+2.8 pts year on year (Q3 2025 47.4%)
Key findings
  • Global comparable sales +1.5% in Q3 2026, US (0.2%). International Operated Markets +1.4%, International Developmental Licensed Markets +4.2% with China negative. Systemwide sales $38.1bn, +4% reported and in constant currency.
  • Revenue $7.16bn, +1.1%; operating income $3.60bn, +7.1%; operating margin 50.2% against 47.4%. Other operating income rose to $139m from $37m, incl. $97m of gains on sales of restaurant businesses. Diluted EPS $3.51, +10%; $3.57 excluding charges.
  • US guest counts fell; US operating income rose with higher gains on restaurant sales. US revenue (0.4%), US operating income +8.5%; Company operated US restaurants 577 against 667 a year earlier. An entry level value test runs in about 1,900 US restaurants, with a national launch targeted for early 2027 (stated on the call).
  • Unit target moved to 2028: the 50,000 restaurant target moved from end 2027 (FY2025 Form 10-K) to end 2028; 2026 capex guidance narrowed to about $3.7bn, the low end of the earlier $3.7bn to $3.9bn range, and gross openings lowered to about 2,500 from about 2,600. Restaurants 46,554 at 30 Sep 2026, +4.4%; China 8,395.
  • Investor Day targets for 2030 (8-K, 23 Sep 2026): operating margin in the low to mid 50% range, G&A about 1.9% of Systemwide sales, free cash flow conversion in the mid to high 80% range, and about $8.5bn of franchisee support through 2036 under McDonald's NEXT.
  • Shares trade at $276.50 (4 Nov 2026), +5.1% on the day, 21.9x TTM GAAP EPS of $12.64 and 21.4x adjusted EPS; dividend raised 4% to $1.93 a quarter. Scenario model for 2029: base $342, best $438, worst $238.

Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2022 to FY2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 2025 to Q2 2026, the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the earnings releases (Ex 99.1) and supplemental information (Ex 99.2) for Q3 2025 to Q3 2026, the Investor Day release of 23 Sep 2026, the board, officer and vote result filings, the CFO commentary on the earnings calls, the 2026 proxy statement, Schedules 13G and Forms 4 for central index key 63908, together with the filings of Restaurant Brands International, Yum! Brands, Yum China, Wendy's, Domino's Pizza, Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks used in chapters 2 to 4 and 7. Q3 2026 figures come from the Form 8-K Ex 99.1 and Ex 99.2 filed on 4 Nov 2026 and are unaudited. The Q3 2026 Form 10-Q had not been filed on 4 Nov 2026, and the earnings release carries no cash flow statement or balance sheet, so cash flow and balance sheet figures use the latest filed period: the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q (30 Jun 2026). CFO and CEO statements from the calls are labelled as stated on the call. Accession numbers appear in the Sources appendix, except for Forms 4. Market prices are last trades of 4 Nov 2026 during the session.

1 Revenue & Business Model

  • Storyline: unit growth of 4.4% and negative US guest counts. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three revenue drivers: the US (40.3% of FY2025 revenue), International Operated Markets (50.7%) and International Developmental Licensed Markets with China, loyalty and franchising (9.0% incl. Corporate). The financial chapters follow with margins, guidance, peers, events, ownership, risks and scenarios.
  • Business model: McDonald's franchises about 95% of its 45,356 restaurants (end 2025) in more than 100 countries and earns rent, royalties and initial fees; it owned about 56% of the land and 80% of the buildings for restaurants in its consolidated markets (FY2025 Form 10-K). Franchised revenues were $16.55bn in FY2025: rents $10.44bn, royalties $6.02bn.
  • Systemwide sales $139.4bn in FY2025 against revenue of $26.89bn, since most sales are made by franchisees; franchised sales $129.7bn.
  • Revenue FY2021 $23.22bn to FY2025 $26.89bn, a 3.7% CAGR; the Russia exit in Q2 2022 and the South Korea sale in 2024 lowered Company operated sales. GAAP operating margin 46.1% in FY2025 against 44.6% in FY2021.
  • Segments: McDonald's reports by market type: the US, International Operated Markets (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the U.K. and others) and International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate, where licensees and affiliates run nearly all restaurants. About 68% of operating income was earned outside the US in FY2025 (Form 10-K).
Figure 1.1 Revenue and GAAP operating margin, FY2021 to FY2025
Figure 1.2 Revenue by segment, FY2021 to FY2025 ($bn)
Table 1.1 Segment revenue and operating income, FY2021 to FY2025
SegmentFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
US revenue ($bn)8.879.5910.5710.6310.83
US operating income ($bn)4.755.145.695.735.81
US operating margin (%)53.653.653.953.953.7
International Operated Markets revenue ($bn)12.2211.3012.3812.6313.63
International Operated Markets operating income ($bn)5.133.935.835.956.38
International Operated Markets operating margin (%)42.034.847.147.146.8
Developmental Licensed and Corporate revenue ($bn)2.142.302.542.662.43
Developmental Licensed and Corporate operating income ($bn)0.470.310.120.030.20
Segment revenue includes other revenues. Operating margins are computed; McDonald's does not report segment margins. Developmental Licensed and Corporate operating income includes corporate costs.
Table 1.2 Revenue by type, Systemwide sales and comparable sales, FY2021 to FY2025
LineFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Franchised revenues ($bn)13.0914.1115.4415.7216.55
Company owned and operated sales ($bn)9.798.759.749.789.69
Other revenues ($bn)0.350.330.320.420.65
Systemwide sales ($bn)112.5118.2129.5130.7139.4
Franchised sales ($bn)102.7109.5119.8120.9129.7
Global comparable sales (%)17.010.99.0(0.1)3.1
Systemwide sales are franchised sales plus Company operated sales and include hyperinflationary markets; comparable sales exclude them.
Table 1.3 Franchised revenues by component, FY2023 to FY2025
ComponentFY2023FY2024FY2025
Rents ($bn)9.8410.0210.44
Royalties ($bn)5.535.616.02
Initial fees ($bn)0.070.090.09
Table 1.4 Restaurants by segment at quarter end
SegmentQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
US13,63313,70613,72813,76913,821
International Operated Markets10,64310,84510,86810,91810,986
Developmental Licensed Markets20,32320,80521,10321,34121,747
Total44,59945,35645,69946,02846,554
of which China7,5027,7407,9628,1148,395
Franchised share of restaurants (%)n/a95.5n/an/a95.9
Franchised share computed from total restaurants less Company owned and operated restaurants, which are disclosed at year end and in Q3.

2 US: Value Reset, Negative Guest Counts and New Leadership

  • US revenue $2.69bn in Q3 2026, (0.4%): franchised revenues +1.9%, Company operated sales (6.1%). FY2025 US revenue $10.83bn, +1.8%.
  • US comparable sales (0.2%) in Q3 2026 after +6.8% in Q4 2025, +3.9% in Q1 and +0.8% in Q2 2026; the release says negative guest counts were largely offset by positive check growth. US franchised sales $13.6bn, +1.5%.
  • US operating income $1.63bn, +8.5%; margin 60.5% against 55.6% (computed). Gains on sales of restaurant businesses, mostly US, rose to $97m; Company operated US restaurants fell to 577 from 667, and their margins fell 16% to $75m.
  • Value (stated on the calls): about a third of US restaurants did not follow the recommended pricing in Q2 2026; an eight week entry level value test began in about 1,900 restaurants, with a national launch targeted for early 2027.
  • Leadership: Skye Anderson became President of McDonald's USA on 4 Aug 2026; the release cites more than 5,700 restaurants modernised in her former US West Zone (8-K Ex 99.1, 4 Aug 2026).
Figure 2.1 US revenue, operating margin and comparable sales by quarter
Table 2.1 US by quarter
LineQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
US revenue ($m)2,6962,6962,4792,7262,685
US franchised revenues ($m)1,9061,8861,7501,9421,943
US Company operated sales ($m)790810729784742
US operating income ($m)1,4981,4811,3801,5731,625
US operating margin (%, computed)55.654.955.757.760.5
US comparable sales (%)2.46.83.90.8(0.2)
US franchised sales ($m)13,37613,56812,38813,52313,582
US Company operated margins ($m)9095599175
US restaurants13,63313,70613,72813,76913,821
US revenue is franchised revenues plus Company operated sales (other revenues are not split by segment in the releases). Operating margin computed.

How the US burger and quick service market is changing

  • Traffic split by income: McDonald's said US quick service visits from lower income consumers fell nearly double digits in Q3 2025 while higher income visits rose nearly double digits (stated on the Q3 2025 call).
  • Burger King US comparable sales +8.4% in Q3 2026: Restaurant Brands has funded $198m of up to $550m of Royal Reset remodel and technology spend within a plan of up to $700m through 2028 (RBI 8-K, 29 Oct 2026).
  • Wendy's and Taco Bell decline: Wendy's US same restaurant sales fell 7.0% in the quarter to 28 Jun 2026; it closed a net 81 US restaurants, withdrew its 2026 outlook and cut its dividend (8-K, 7 Aug 2026). Taco Bell US same store sales fell 4% in Q3 2026 against +7% a year earlier, and Yum cites a Jul 2026 cyclospora outbreak among its risks (8-K, 3 Nov 2026).
  • Pizza and fast casual: Domino's US same store sales +0.3% in the 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026 against +5.2%; Chipotle comparable sales +2.1% in Q3 2026 with transactions +0.8% and restaurant level margin 23.3% against 24.5%.
  • Weight loss drugs: McDonald's added weight loss medications to its Form 10-K risk factors in Feb 2026 and responds with flexible portion sizes and high protein options (8-K Ex 99.2, 4 Nov 2026).
Figure 2.2 US comparable sales by company, latest quarter
Table 2.2 US against burger, Mexican, pizza and fast casual peers
Company and linePeriodFiled detailRevenue or sales ($m)Growth (%)Operating margin (%)
McDonald's USQ3 2026comparable sales (0.2%); margin is segment operating income over revenue2,685(0.4)60.5
Burger King US and Canada (RBI)Q3 2026BK US comparable sales +8.4%; 6,979 restaurants; net restaurant growth (0.9%); adjusted operating income3962.334.3
Taco Bell Division (Yum)Q3 2026Taco Bell US same store sales (4%), system sales (3%); 9,102 restaurants7705.533.1
Wendy'squarter to 28 Jun 2026US same restaurant sales (7.0%); US Company restaurant margin 13.8% against 16.2%570.61.713.9
Domino's US retail sales12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026US same store sales +0.3% against +5.2%; 7,257 stores; consolidated margin2,368.62.120.4
Chipotle Mexican GrillQ3 2026comparable sales +2.1% (check +1.3%, transactions +0.8%); restaurant level margin 23.3% against 24.5%3,293.29.613.7
Wendy's covers the quarter to 28 Jun 2026; its Sep 2026 quarter was not filed at 4 Nov 2026. Domino's covers the 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026. Burger King margin uses adjusted operating income, a non GAAP measure; Domino's and Chipotle margins are consolidated.

3 International Operated Markets: Franchise Base in Europe, Australia and Canada

  • IOM revenue $3.60bn in Q3 2026, (0.2%), after +13.8% in Q1 2026 and +4.1% in Q2 as currency turned: most major currencies, led by the euro, weakened against the dollar in Q3 after strengthening earlier in 2026 (8-K Ex 99.2). Systemwide sales +3% reported and +4% in constant currency.
  • IOM comparable sales +1.4% after +5.2% in Q4 2025; Australia and Germany led and France was below (stated on the call). FY2025 IOM comparable sales +3.2%.
  • IOM operating income $1.80bn, +2.0%; margin 49.9% against 48.8% (computed). IOM franchised sales $11.9bn, +4.3%; IOM Company operated margins $299m, +3.8%.
  • Restaurants 10,986, +3.2%, led by Italy (+52) and Poland (+43) in the year to Sep 2026; specialty beverages reach about 18,000 restaurants across the US, Germany, Canada and Australia, with 7,000 more planned in Europe by mid 2027 (stated on the call).
Figure 3.1 International Operated Markets revenue, operating margin and comparable sales by quarter
Table 3.1 International Operated Markets by quarter
LineQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
IOM revenue ($m)3,6063,5383,2583,5433,598
IOM franchised revenues ($m)1,9621,9241,7821,9362,007
IOM Company operated sales ($m)1,6451,6141,4771,6071,591
IOM operating income ($m)1,7611,6961,5071,7231,796
IOM operating margin (%, computed)48.847.946.348.649.9
IOM comparable sales (%)4.35.23.91.51.4
IOM Systemwide sales growth, reported (%)n/a141663
IOM Systemwide sales growth, constant currency (%)n/a7644
IOM franchised sales ($m)11,43911,30510,49811,45611,931
IOM restaurants10,64310,84510,86810,91810,986
Systemwide sales growth by segment for Q3 2025 was not collected.

How quick service in Europe, Australia and Canada is changing

  • KFC grows outside the US: KFC system sales growth excluding currency in Q3 2026: Europe +2%, U.K. +7%, Australia +5%, Canada flat (Yum 8-K, 3 Nov 2026).
  • Restaurant Brands International: comparable sales +3.9%, system sales +9.0% in constant currency and net restaurant growth of 5.6% to 16,792 units in Q3 2026; Tim Hortons Canada comparable sales +1.8% against +4.2% a year earlier (RBI 8-K, 29 Oct 2026).
  • Domino's International: same store sales +0.2% excluding currency in the 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026 against +1.7% a year earlier, with 149 net new international stores (8-K, 13 Oct 2026).
  • Currency: the CFO cut the expected 2026 currency benefit to EPS to about $0.15 from $0.20 to $0.30 (stated on the Q2 2026 call); currency reduced Q3 2026 diluted EPS by $0.01 (8-K Ex 99.2, 4 Nov 2026).
Figure 3.2 International franchise businesses, comparable sales and margins
Table 3.2 International Operated Markets against international franchise peers
Company and linePeriodFiled detailRevenue or sales ($m)Growth (%)Operating margin (%)
McDonald's International Operated MarketsQ3 2026comparable sales +1.4%; margin is segment operating income over revenue3,598(0.2)49.9
RBI International segmentQ3 2026system sales $5.89bn, +9.0% in constant currency; comparable sales +3.9%; adjusted operating income2897.870.9
Yum KFC DivisionQ3 2026system sales $10.05bn, +6% excluding currency; same store sales +1%; 35,421 restaurants, +7%9487.844.8
Tim Hortons segment (RBI)Q3 2026comparable sales +1.5% (Canada +1.8%); adjusted operating income1,1361.027.9
Domino's International retail sales12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026+4.3% excluding currency; royalties and fees $83.7m against $78.5m; 15,449 stores2,471.84.0n/a
RBI segment margins use adjusted operating income, a non GAAP measure. Domino's covers the 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026 and reports no international margin. All others Q3 2026.

4 Developmental Licensed Markets, China, Loyalty and Franchising

  • IDL franchised sales $10.1bn in Q3 2026, +9.0%; comparable sales +4.2%, led by Japan, with China negative (8-K Ex 99.1; stated on the call). Systemwide sales growth +9% in constant currency.
  • IDL and Corporate revenue $684m, +9.4%; operating income $174m against $97m, incl. equity in earnings of affiliates of $75m against $63m, mainly China. McDonald's owns 48% of Grand Foods Holding, which holds the China, Hong Kong and Macau business.
  • Units: IDL restaurants 21,747, +7.0%; China 8,395, +893 in twelve months. Licensees and affiliates contribute capital toward about 1,800 of about 2,500 openings in 2026 (8-K Ex 99.2).
  • Loyalty: Systemwide sales to loyalty members about $41bn over twelve months and above $11bn in Q3 2026; nearly 220m 90 day active users in 70 markets (8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026); targets 250m users and $45bn of sales by end 2027. Other revenues, incl. technology platform fees, $189m, +26%.
  • Franchising: 95.9% of restaurants franchised at 30 Sep 2026 against 95.4% a year earlier (computed); Company owned and operated restaurants 1,924 against 2,053; about 175 restaurants refranchised in 2026 and a target of about 98% by end 2028 (stated on the call). Developmental licensed franchised sales $6.50bn in Q3, +10.5%; foreign affiliated $3.83bn, +7.3%.
Figure 4.1 Developmental Licensed Markets and China restaurants by quarter
Table 4.1 Developmental Licensed Markets, China and loyalty by quarter
LineQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
IDL and Corporate revenue ($m)625613587648684
IDL and Corporate operating income ($m)97(21)6742174
IDL comparable sales (%)4.74.53.41.94.2
IDL Systemwide sales growth, constant currency (%)n/a9879
IDL franchised sales ($m)9,2799,1469,0309,47310,113
IDL restaurants20,32320,80521,10321,34121,747
China restaurants7,5027,7407,9628,1148,395
Other revenues ($m)151162193182189
Loyalty member sales, trailing twelve months ($bn)3437384041
IDL and Corporate revenue is franchised revenues plus Company operated sales; operating income includes corporate costs. Q3 2025 includes South Korea before its sale. Loyalty sales are rounded figures from the releases.

How China, licensing and digital loyalty are changing

  • Yum China: same store sales at 97% of the prior year level in Q3 2026 while transactions rose 3%; a record 692 net new stores to 19,989; delivery about 54% of Company sales against 51%; more than 278m KFC or Pizza Hut members, +6% (8-K, 3 Nov 2026).
  • Licensing in China: Restaurant Brands deconsolidated Burger King China on 30 Jan 2026 into a joint venture in which CPE invested $350m, keeping 17% and earning royalties (RBI 8-K, 29 Oct 2026); Yum China completed the purchase of the Pizza Hut brand in mainland China on 7 Aug 2026.
  • Digital share: Yum digital system sales exceeded $9bn in Q3 2026 with a digital mix of 64%; Chipotle digital sales were 38.8% of food and beverage revenue against 36.7% (8-K, 3 Nov and 28 Oct 2026).
  • Unit growth: Domino's added 956 net stores over four quarters to 22,706 (to 6 Sep 2026); KFC Division restaurants rose 7% to 35,421; Burger King US and Canada net restaurant growth was (0.9%).
Figure 4.2 Net restaurant growth by company
Figure 4.3 Systemwide sales to loyalty members by quarter
Table 4.2 Developmental Licensed Markets against China and global franchise peers
Company and linePeriodFiled detailRevenue or sales ($m)Growth (%)Operating margin (%)
McDonald's IDL franchised salesQ3 2026IDL comparable sales +4.2%; 21,747 restaurants; China comparable sales negative10,1139.0n/a
Yum ChinaQ3 2026same store sales at 97% of prior year, transactions +3%; 19,989 stores, 19% franchised3,4778.513.0
Yum! Brands, consolidatedQ3 2026digital mix 64%, digital system sales above $9bn; 955 gross new units; margin not shown due to the Pizza Hut sale gain2,0543.8n/a
Restaurant Brands International, consolidatedQ3 2026system wide sales $12.97bn, +6.2%; net restaurant growth 3.0% to 33,4012,5253.127.6
Domino's Pizza, consolidated12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026global retail sales $4.84bn, +3.2% excluding currency; 956 net new stores over four quarters to 22,7061,185.63.420.4
Chipotle Mexican GrillQ3 2026digital sales 38.8% of food and beverage revenue against 36.7%3,293.29.613.7
McDonald's row shows IDL franchised sales, which are made by licensees and affiliates. Yum consolidated GAAP operating profit includes a $1.7bn gain on the Pizza Hut sale. Domino's covers the 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026.

5 Financial Analysis & Ratios

  • FY2025 revenue $26.89bn, +3.7%; GAAP operating margin 46.1% against 45.2%; diluted EPS $11.95 against $11.39. Non GAAP operating income $12.62bn and EPS $12.20 exclude restructuring of $226m under Accelerating the Organization.
  • TTM to Q3 2026: revenue $27.78bn, operating income $13.04bn (46.9% margin), net income $9.00bn, diluted EPS $12.64. Nine months 2026: revenue +4.5%, GAAP operating margin 47.6% against 46.5%; non GAAP 48.3%.
  • Cash, TTM to Q2 2026 (latest filed period): operating cash flow $11.35bn; capex $3.59bn; free cash flow $7.76bn; dividends $5.23bn; buybacks $2.33bn. FY2025 free cash flow $7.19bn against $6.67bn, with conversion of 84% against 81%. Q3 2026 cash flow follows in the Form 10-Q.
  • Balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026 (latest filed): total debt $39.86bn, cash $0.82bn, net debt $39.04bn; operating lease liabilities $14.73bn; shareholders' deficit $1.02bn after $80.5bn of treasury stock, so ROE and debt to equity are not meaningful. Debt is 97% fixed rate at a 4.0% average rate; ratings BBB+ and Baa1 (FY2025 Form 10-K).
Table 5.1 Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet summary ($bn unless stated)
Line itemFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Revenue23.223.225.525.926.9
Gross profit12.613.214.614.715.4
Selling, general and administrative2.72.92.82.93.0
Operating income10.49.411.611.712.4
Net income7.56.28.58.28.6
Diluted EPS ($)10.048.3311.5611.3911.95
Operating cash flow9.17.49.69.410.6
Capital expenditure(2.0)(1.9)(2.4)(2.8)(3.4)
Free cash flow7.15.57.36.77.2
Stock based compensation0.10.20.20.20.2
Cash and investments4.72.64.61.10.8
Total debt35.635.939.338.440.0
Total equity(4.6)(6.0)(4.7)(3.8)(1.8)
McDonald's does not report gross profit. Gross profit here is total revenues less franchised restaurants occupancy expenses, Company operated restaurant expenses and other restaurant expenses, which equals total restaurant margins plus other revenues less other restaurant expenses. Selling, general and administrative includes its separate D&A line. Total equity is the shareholders' deficit.
Figure 5.1 Quarterly revenue and margins
Table 5.2 What changed, Q3 2026 against Q3 2025
MetricQ3 2025Q3 2026Change
Revenue ($bn)7.087.161.1%
Gross profit ($bn)4.104.212.7%
Operating income ($bn)3.363.607.1%
Net income ($bn)2.282.499.1%
Diluted EPS ($)3.183.5110.4%
Operating margin (%)47.450.22.8 pts
Net margin (%)32.234.72.6 pts
Table 5.3 Ratio analysis
RatioFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025
Growth and margins
Revenue growth (%)n/a(0.2)10.01.73.7
Operating margin (%)44.640.445.745.246.1
Net margin (%)32.526.633.231.731.9
FCF margin (%)30.623.728.525.726.7
Cost and investment intensity
SBC (%) revenue0.60.70.70.70.6
Capex (%) revenue8.88.29.210.712.5
Effective tax rate (%)17.321.119.520.521.4
Returns
ROA (%)14.011.815.914.814.9
Asset turnover (x)0.430.460.450.470.45
Liquidity and leverage
Current ratio (x)1.781.431.161.190.95
Net cash ($bn)(30.9)(33.3)(34.8)(37.3)(39.2)
Efficiency and cash quality
Days sales outstanding2933363433
FCF to net income (x)0.940.890.860.810.84
Shareholder returns (%) FCF67147105115100
ROE and debt to equity are not meaningful with negative equity. ROA uses average total assets; asset turnover uses year end total assets. McDonald's reports after tax ROIC of 20.3% for FY2025, 21.8% for FY2024 and 25.2% for FY2023 on its own definition.
Figure 5.2 Margin profile
Figure 5.3 Operating cash flow, capital expenditure and free cash flow
Table 5.4 Valuation snapshot at $276.50 per share, 4 Nov 2026
MeasureValue
Market cap ($bn)195.7
Enterprise value, debt and cash at 30 Jun 2026 ($bn)234.7
P/E on TTM Q3 2026 GAAP EPS (x)21.9
P/E on TTM Q3 2026 adjusted EPS (x)21.4
EV/Sales on TTM Q3 2026 revenue (x)8.4
FCF yield on TTM Q2 2026 free cash flow (%)4.0
Dividend yield on $1.93 quarterly rate (%)2.8

Cost structure and profitability

  • Costs (revenue less operating income) $3.56bn in Q3 2026, (4.3%), against revenue +1.1%; operating margin 50.2% against 47.4%.
  • Company operated restaurant expenses 29.2% of Q3 revenue against 30.7% (derived), as Company operated sales fell 3.2% with fewer US Company operated restaurants; management cited mid single digit food and paper inflation (stated on the call).
  • Franchised margins 84.7% of franchised revenues against 84.7%; Company operated margins 15.8% of Company operated sales against 15.3%. Franchised margins were 90.6% of restaurant margin dollars.
  • Other operating costs, net 10.2% of revenue against 11.9% (derived), lowered by the $139m of other operating income; SG&A was 2.0% of Systemwide sales in Q3 (stated on the call) and 2.1% for nine months, against 2.2% in FY2025.
  • Impairment and other charges $56m in Q3 2026 and $155m for nine months, mainly restructuring under Accelerating the Organization, which completes during 2027.
Figure 5.4 Operating costs as % of revenue by quarter
Figure 5.5 Restaurant margins by ownership type by quarter
Figure 5.6 Operating cash flow, capex and free cash flow by quarter
Table 5.5 Costs as % of total revenues and restaurant margins, last five quarters
LineQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
Franchised restaurants occupancy expenses (derived) (% of revenue)9.49.710.49.69.6
Company operated restaurant expenses (derived) (% of revenue)30.730.831.230.129.2
Other operating costs, net of other operating income (derived) (% of revenue)11.913.312.412.610.2
Impairment and other charges (% of revenue)0.61.10.70.70.8
Operating income (% of revenue)47.445.045.347.050.2
Franchised margins ($m)3,6973,6323,3313,7133,800
Company operated margins ($m)391377285387392
Franchised margin as % of franchised revenues84.784.283.184.584.7
Company operated margin as % of Company operated sales15.314.912.315.315.8
Occupancy and Company operated expenses derived as revenues less the restaurant margins in the supplemental tables; other operating costs are the remainder before operating income.
Table 5.6 GAAP to non GAAP, Q3 2025, Q3 2026, FY2024 and FY2025
LineQ3 2025Q3 2026FY2024FY2025
GAAP operating income ($m)3,3573,59511,71212,393
Impairment and other charges ($m)3956291229
Non GAAP operating income ($m)3,3963,65112,00312,621
GAAP operating margin (%)47.450.245.246.1
Non GAAP operating margin (%)48.051.046.346.9
GAAP diluted EPS ($)3.183.5111.3911.95
Non GAAP diluted EPS ($)3.223.5711.7212.20
Table 5.7 Cash flow and balance sheet items ($bn)
ItemFY2024FY2025TTM Q2 2026
Operating cash flow9.4510.5511.35
Capital expenditure(2.78)(3.37)(3.59)
Free cash flow6.677.197.76
Dividends paid(4.87)(5.12)(5.23)
Share repurchases(2.82)(2.06)(2.33)
Depreciation and amortization2.102.202.27
Total debt at period end38.4239.9739.86
Cash and equivalents at period end1.090.770.82
Shareholders' equity (deficit) at period end(3.80)(1.79)(1.02)
TTM Q2 2026 is the latest filed cash flow period; balance sheet column at 30 Jun 2026. Q3 2026 figures follow in the Form 10-Q.

6 MD&A & Management Commentary

Q3 2026 results release, supplemental information and earnings call (4 Nov 2026)

  • Q3 2026: revenue $7.16bn, +1.1%: franchised revenues $4.49bn, +2.8%; Company operated sales $2.48bn, (3.2%); other revenues $189m, +26%. Net income $2.49bn, +9.1%; tax rate 22.0% against 22.8%.
  • Other operating income $139m against $37m (Ex 99.2): gains on sales of restaurant businesses $97m against $35m, mostly in the US; equity in earnings of affiliates $75m against $63m; asset dispositions a gain of $23m against a $21m expense; impairment and other charges $56m. Operating income excluding the restaurant sale and asset disposition items was $3.48bn, +3.9% (derived).
  • Restaurant margins $4.19bn, +2.5%: franchised $3.80bn, +2.8%; Company operated $392m, +0.3%, with US Company operated margins down 16% to $75m on cost inflation.
  • Capital returns: quarterly dividend raised 4% to $1.93, payable 15 Dec 2026; Q3 buybacks of 1.9m shares for $519m; nine month buybacks of 6.2m shares for $1.8bn and dividends of $4.0bn. $11.7bn of the $15.0bn program remained at 30 Jun 2026.
  • Q3 2026: US comparable sales +1.4% for the nine months (8-K Ex 99.2). Stated on the call: July and August slightly negative, September positive; management cited better baseline traffic in September and October without an October figure. Franchisees with about 4,000 more restaurants are adding entry level bundles, taking participation above 40% of the US system; unit sales of top Extra Value Meals up about 7%.
  • Menu and loyalty (stated on the call): specialty beverages in about 18,000 restaurants in the US, Germany, Canada and Australia, with 7,000 more planned in Europe by mid 2027 and checks about 50% above the full day average; US loyalty members almost 30% of the customer base.
Table 6.1 Company outlook with every 2026 revision and the 2030 targets
ItemOutlookSource
2026 capex, first outlook$3.7bn to $3.9bn, against $3.4bn in 20258-K Ex 99.2, 11 Feb 2026; unchanged 7 May and 4 Aug 2026
2026 capex, latestabout $3.7bn, the low end of the earlier range8-K Ex 99.2, 4 Nov 2026
2026 openings, first outlookabout 2,600 gross (about 750 US and IOM); about 2,100 net8-K Ex 99.2, 11 Feb 2026; unchanged 7 May and 4 Aug 2026
2026 openings, loweredabout 2,500 gross (about 700 US and IOM, about 1,800 by licensees and affiliates); about 2,100 net unchanged8-K Ex 99.2, 4 Nov 2026
Global restaurant target50,000 by end 2027, moved to end 2028FY2025 Form 10-K; 8-K Ex 99.2, 4 Aug and 4 Nov 2026
2026 currency effect on EPS$0.20 to $0.30 benefit, cut to about $0.15stated on the Q4 2025 and Q2 2026 calls
2026 unchanged itemsunit expansion adds about 2.5% to Systemwide sales growth; operating margin mid to high 40% range; SG&A about 2.2% of Systemwide sales; interest expense +4% to 6%; tax rate 21% to 23%; free cash flow conversion low to mid 80% range8-K Ex 99.2, 11 Feb to 4 Nov 2026
2030 operating margin and G&Aoperating margin low to mid 50% range; G&A about 1.9% of Systemwide sales8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026
2027 to 2030 capitalbaseline capex about $3bn a year plus $1.5bn to $2bn of cumulative capital partnering support; free cash flow conversion mid to high 80% range by 20308-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026
Unit growth and franchiseesunit expansion nearly 2.5% of Systemwide sales growth in 2027, about 2% by 2030; about $8.5bn of franchisee support through 2036 ($5bn through 2030); about 250 bps of restaurant efficiency, about $100,000 of cash flow per average US restaurant8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026
Share and loyalty targets+1.5 points of share in chicken and in beverages by 2030; 250m 90 day active loyalty users and $45bn of loyalty sales by end 20278-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026; FY2025 Form 10-K
Franchised mixabout 98% franchised by end 2028, from about 95%; about 175 restaurants refranchised so far in 2026stated on the Q3 2026 call

Management and CFO commentary

  • CFO Ian Borden, Q3 2026 call (stated on the call): restaurant margins nearly $4.2bn; nine month adjusted operating margin 48.3%; SG&A 2.0% of Systemwide sales in Q3 and about 2.2% for the year; adjusted EPS +11% in constant currency; mid single digit food and paper inflation; US franchisee cash flow of roughly $500,000 per restaurant described as broadly in line.
  • CEO Chris Kempczinski, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 4 Nov 2026: US comparable sales were down 0.2% as negative guest counts were largely offset by positive check growth, and the US improved as the quarter progressed after the value intervention.
  • Investor Day release (8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026): operating margin in the low to mid 50% range by 2030; G&A about 1.9% of Systemwide sales; baseline capex about $3bn a year from 2027 to 2030 plus $1.5bn to $2bn of capital partnering support.
  • CFO, Q2 2026 call (stated on the call): value factors accounted for about two thirds of the US traffic shortfall; adjusted EPS $3.38 incl. $0.03 of currency benefit; 2026 currency benefit cut to about $0.15; the 50,000 restaurant goal moved to 2028.
  • CFO, Q4 2025 call (stated on the call): 2026 operating margin in the mid to high 40% range against 46.9% in 2025; capex $3.7bn to $3.9bn against $3.4bn; free cash flow conversion in the low to mid 80% range against 84%.
  • CFO, Q3 2025 call (stated on the call): Company co funding of Extra Value Meals of about $15m in Sep 2025 and about $75m expected in Q4 2025.
Table 6.2 Management statements in their own words
SpeakerDate and sourceStatement
Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and CEO4 Nov 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“we're encouraged by improvement as the quarter progressed following our intervention on value”
Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and CEO4 Nov 2026, stated on the call“Nothing is real until it's real in the restaurants.”
Chris Kempczinski, Chairman and CEO11 Feb 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“McDonald's value leadership is working”
Table 6.3 Key disclosures in the Forms 10-K and 10-Q and the Q3 2026 supplemental
ItemDisclosure
Item 5 MarketDividends paid for 50 consecutive years with annual increases; about 5.1m holders of record and beneficial owners at Jan 31 2026. $15.0bn buyback program effective Jan 1 2025; $2.0bn used in 2025; $11.7bn remaining at Jun 30 2026.
Item 7A Market RiskDebt obligations $40.0bn before fair value and deferred cost adjustments (carrying $39.97bn): 97% fixed rate, 4.0% weighted average rate, 39% foreign currency denominated ($15.6bn). Ratings A2 and P2 short term, BBB+/Baa1 long term. Largest net asset exposures: AUD $1.77bn, GBP $1.42bn, PLN $820m.
Item 8 Debt note$4.0bn unused committed line of credit to June 2028; $798m commercial paper and $725m current maturities classified as long term at end 2025. $10.3bn of $15.0bn board borrowing authority remained.
Item 8 Franchise noteFuture gross minimum rent payments due under conventional franchise arrangements total $31.45bn ($3.04bn in 2026). Net property under franchise arrangements $22.8bn incl. land $7.1bn.
Item 8, other operating income and expenseRestructuring charges for Accelerating the Organization: $250m (2023), $221m (2024), $226m (2025); program expected to complete during 2027. Equity in earnings of affiliates $190m in 2025.
Item 8 Equity methodOwns 48% of Grand Foods Holding (McDonald's China, Hong Kong, Macau), carrying value $2.13bn at Jun 30 2026; stake raised in 2024 for $1.8bn. Also holds a stake in McDonald's Japan Holdings.
Q2 2026 10-Q MD&A6M 2026 cash from operations $5.2bn, exceeding capex by $3.7bn; financing outflow $3.6bn, up $1.5bn on lower bond issuance.
Q2 2026 10-Q MD&AQ2 2026 effective tax rate 19.5% (discrete benefits from restructuring initiatives) vs 21.3%.
Q2 2026 10-Q fair valueDebt fair value $38.3bn vs carrying $39.9bn at Jun 30 2026.
Q2 2026 10-Q Item 5No officer or director adopted, modified or terminated a Rule preset trading plan in Q2 2026.

7 Sector & Competitor Analysis

  • Sector: quick service franchisors. McDonald's TTM revenue $27.8bn against Starbucks $37.9bn (FY2026), Chipotle $12.7bn, Restaurant Brands $9.8bn, Yum $8.7bn (TTM to Jun 2026) and Domino's $5.1bn (TTM to 6 Sep 2026).
  • Operating margin: MCD 46.9% TTM, YUM 31.0%, QSR 27.0%, DPZ 19.7%, CMG 14.1% and SBUX 9.7%; the franchised models of MCD, YUM and QSR earn rent and royalties on sales made by franchisees.
  • Growth, latest quarter: YUM +12.2% (Q2 2026), CMG +9.6%, DPZ +3.4%, QSR +3.1%, MCD +1.1%, SBUX (4.5%).
  • Valuation: MCD 8.45x EV/Sales and 21.9x P/E, against YUM 6.46x and 20.2x, QSR 4.84x and 17.8x, DPZ 3.13x and 18.4x, CMG 3.38x and 31.8x.
Table 7.1 Peer comparison, latest reported trailing twelve months
CompanyRevenue TTM ($bn)Revenue growth (%)Operating margin (%)Net margin (%)FCF margin (%)ROE (%)Net cash ($bn)Market value ($bn)EV/Sales (x)P/E TTM (x)
MCD27.81.146.932.428.0n/a(39.0)1968.521.9
YUM8.712.231.025.419.3n/a(11.6)456.520.2
QSR9.83.127.020.116.236.8(12.3)354.817.8
CMG12.79.614.110.811.948.50.9443.431.8
SBUX37.9(4.5)9.76.79.8n/a(9.1)1243.549.0
DPZ5.13.419.712.012.5n/a(4.7)113.118.4
MCD TTM to 30 Sep 2026; FCF margin TTM to 30 Jun 2026; net debt at 30 Jun 2026. YUM TTM to Jun 2026, growth Q2 2026; its Q2 2026 net income includes items that were not analysed, which raises its P/E and net margin. QSR and CMG TTM to 30 Sep 2026. DPZ TTM to 6 Sep 2026, growth for the 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026. SBUX FY2026 to 27 Sep 2026, growth affected by the China deconsolidation. Growth is the latest quarter year on year. EV excludes leases. Prices are last trades of 4 Nov 2026.
Figure 7.1 Revenue growth versus operating margin, peer set
Table 7.2 Latest quarter by business, all drivers
BusinessPeriodRevenue or sales ($m)Growth (%)Operating margin (%)
McDonald's USQ3 20262,685(0.4)60.5
Burger King US and Canada (RBI)Q3 20263962.334.3
Taco Bell Division (Yum)Q3 20267705.533.1
Wendy'squarter to 28 Jun 2026570.61.713.9
Domino's US retail sales12 weeks to 6 Sep 20262,368.62.120.4
Chipotle Mexican GrillQ3 20263,293.29.613.7
RBI International segmentQ3 20262897.870.9
Yum KFC DivisionQ3 20269487.844.8
Tim Hortons segment (RBI)Q3 20261,1361.027.9
Yum ChinaQ3 20263,4778.513.0
Restaurant Brands International, consolidatedQ3 20262,5253.127.6
Domino's Pizza, consolidated12 weeks to 6 Sep 20261,185.63.420.4
Restaurant Brands segment margins use adjusted operating income, a non GAAP measure. Wendy's covers the quarter to 28 Jun 2026; Domino's the 12 weeks to 6 Sep 2026; all others Q3 2026.

8 Material Events & Contracts

  • 10 Forms 8-K in twelve months: four earnings releases with supplemental information (Q3 2025 to Q2 2026) plus the Q3 2026 release, the Investor Day release, two board filings on James Farley, the US leadership change and the annual meeting vote results. The exhibits attached were Ex 99.1 releases and Ex 99.2 supplemental information.
  • Investor Day (23 Sep 2026): McDonald's NEXT, which builds on Accelerating the Arches, has four pillars (Menu, Consumer, Restaurant incl. the AI enabled ArchIQ, and People) and set the 2030 targets; the Make It Golden programme started on 5 Oct 2026. Management said Accelerating the Arches added about $40bn of Systemwide sales and over $3bn of operating income over six years (stated on the Q2 2026 call).
  • Leadership: Skye Anderson, US chief operating officer with more than 26 years at McDonald's, became President of McDonald's USA on 4 Aug 2026, succeeding Joe Erlinger, who stays as adviser until early 2027. Ford CEO James Farley joined the board on 4 Feb 2026, raising it to 12 members.
Table 8.1 Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
DateItemsEvent
5 Nov 20252.02, 9.01Q3 2025 results: revenue $7.08bn (+3%), global comps +3.6% (US +2.4%), diluted EPS $3.18, non GAAP EPS $3.22.
10 Feb 20265.02, 9.01Board raised to 12 directors and elected James D. Farley, Jr. effective Feb 4 2026.
11 Feb 20262.02, 9.01Q4 and FY2025 results: Q4 revenue $7.01bn (+10%), Q4 global comps +5.7% (US +6.8%), Q4 EPS $3.03; FY2025 revenue $26.89bn (+4%), EPS $11.95, Systemwide sales over $139bn; 2026 outlook incl. capex $3.7bn to $3.9bn and about 2,600 openings.
2 Apr 20265.02, amendmentAmendment: Farley appointed to Audit and Finance and Corporate Responsibility Committees on Mar 30 2026.
7 May 20262.02, 9.01Q1 2026 results: revenue $6.52bn (+9%), global comps +3.8% (US +3.9%), EPS $2.78, non GAAP EPS $2.83; repurchased 1.3m shares for $393m.
22 May 20265.07Annual meeting May 20 2026: all 12 directors elected, say on pay approved (478.2m for, 24.6m against), independent Chair and written consent proposals failed.
4 Aug 20262.02, 9.01Q2 2026 results: revenue $7.10bn (+4%), global comps +1.3% (US +0.8%), EPS $3.32, non GAAP EPS $3.38; repurchased 3.0m shares for $858m; 50,000 unit target moved to 2028.
4 Aug 20265.02, 7.01, 9.01Joseph Erlinger left as President, McDonald's USA effective Aug 4 2026 (adviser until early 2027); Skye Anderson (26 years at McDonald's, US COO) appointed President, McDonald's USA.
23 Sep 20267.01, 9.01Investor Day: McDonald's > NEXT strategy; operating margin target low to mid 50% by 2030, G&A about 1.9% of Systemwide sales by 2030, about $3bn annual baseline capex 2027 to 2030 plus $1.5bn to $2bn partnering capex, about $8.5bn franchisee partnering support through 2036, FCF conversion mid to high 80% by 2030; Make It Golden launched Oct 5.
4 Nov 20262.02, 9.01Q3 2026 results: revenue $7.16bn (+1%), global comps +1.5% (US (0.2%), IOM +1.4%, IDL +4.2%), operating income $3.60bn (+7%), EPS $3.51 (+10%), non GAAP EPS $3.57; dividend raised 4% to $1.93; 2026 capex cut to about $3.7bn and openings to about 2,500.
Table 8.2 Material contracts and financing arrangements
ContractTerms
Franchise arrangementsConventional franchise terms generally 20 years; future gross minimum rent payments $31.45bn ($3.05bn in 2026); net property under franchise arrangements $22.8bn incl. land of $7.1bn (FY2025 Form 10-K).
McDonald's NEXT partnering supportAbout $8.5bn of rent relief and capital support to franchisees through 2036, about $5bn through 2030; $1.5bn to $2bn of capital partnering from 2027 to 2030 (8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026).
Debt and credit lineDebt $40.0bn before fair value adjustments at end 2025, 97% fixed, 4.0% average rate, 39% in foreign currency; $4.0bn unused committed line of credit to Jun 2028; $798m of commercial paper and $725m of current maturities classified as long term.
Grand Foods Holding (China)48% equity stake in the holder of McDonald's China, Hong Kong and Macau, raised in 2024 for $1.8bn; carrying value $2.13bn at 30 Jun 2026.
Share repurchase program$15.0bn program effective 1 Jan 2025; $11.73bn remaining at 30 Jun 2026; Q2 2026 repurchases of 2,973,917 shares at $288.62 on average.
GuaranteesGuaranteed loans of about $85m at end 2025 with no carrying value.

9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

  • One class of common stock, one vote per share; no controlling holder. Directors and executive officers as a group (23 persons) owned 1,838,732 shares incl. units, under 1% (proxy, 1 Mar 2026).
  • 2026 annual meeting (20 May 2026): all 12 directors elected, support of votes cast from 92.3% (Chris Kempczinski, chairman and CEO) to 99.6% (Jennifer Taubert); say on pay 95.1%; Ernst and Young 94.8%; an independent chair proposal received 21.9% and a written consent proposal 41.9%.
  • Insiders, 12 months to 4 Nov 2026: no open market purchases; open market sales of about $40.5m, mostly option exercises and sales under preset trading plans. CEO Chris Kempczinski sold 52,553 shares for $17.5m on 12 and 13 Feb 2026 at $331 to $334 after exercising options at $128.09; CFO Ian Borden sold 17,134 shares at $310 ($5.3m) on 21 Nov 2025.
  • Other sellers: former US president Joe Erlinger about $6.2m from Nov 2025 to Jun 2026, largely monthly option exercise and sale; IOM president Manu Steijaert $6.0m; chief impact officer Jon Banner $2.1m on 23 Feb 2026, not flagged as a preset plan. Other Forms 4 were vesting and tax withholding.
Table 9.1 Annual meeting vote results, 20 May 2026
ProposalFor (bn votes)Against (bn votes)Abstain (bn votes)For as % of votes castResult
Elect Christopher Kempczinski (lowest support)0.4650.0390.00192.3Elected
Elect Jennifer Taubert (highest support)0.5020.0020.00199.6Elected
Elect James Farley, Jr.0.4990.0050.00198.9Elected
Say on pay (advisory)0.4780.0250.00295.1Approved
Ratify Ernst and Young as auditor for 20260.5640.0310.00194.8Approved
Shareholder proposal, independent chair policy0.1100.3900.00521.9Not approved
Shareholder proposal, right to act by written consent0.2100.2920.00341.9Not approved
One vote per share. Vote shares exclude abstentions and broker non votes (91,259,572 on each nonroutine item; none on the auditor ratification). All 12 directors were elected.
Table 9.2 Largest holders from the proxy statement and Schedules 13G
HolderSourceShares (m)Share of class (%)
Vanguard, The Vanguard GroupProxy statement, holdings at 31 Dec 202571.6410.03
Vanguard Capital ManagementSchedule 13G 0002100119-26-000873, event 31 Mar 202653.497.52
BlackRockProxy statement citing Schedule 13G amendment of 26 Jan 202451.977.3
State StreetSchedule 13G 0000093751-26-000496, event 30 Jun 202636.125.1
JPMorgan ChaseSchedule 13G amendment 0000019617-26-000286, event 30 Jun 202630.964.3
The Vanguard Group reorganised its reporting in Jan 2026; its Schedule 13G amendment reports 0 shares, and Vanguard Capital Management reports 7.52% at 31 Mar 2026. BlackRock's 7.3% in the proxy dates from a Jan 2024 Schedule 13G amendment. JPMorgan Chase held 5.1% at 31 Mar 2026 and 4.3% at 30 Jun 2026.

10 Risk Factors

  • Item 1A of the FY2025 Form 10-K holds 25 risk factors, as in FY2024, with 6,487 words against 6,249; 3 were materially reworded. The Q1 2026 Form 10-Q repeated them, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q added McDonald's NEXT to the strategy factor, and the Q3 2026 supplemental (Ex 99.2) of 4 Nov 2026 rewrote the strategy, industry trends and customer experience factors after Investor Day. The Q3 2026 Form 10-Q had not been filed.
Table 10.1 Risks with filed figures
RiskDisclosure and change
US traffic and valueUS comparable sales (0.2%) in Q3 2026 on negative guest counts; the US made 40.3% of FY2025 revenue; value factors explained about two thirds of the Q2 2026 US traffic shortfall (stated on the Q2 2026 call).
McDonald's NEXT executionThe Q3 2026 supplemental strategy factor grew from 289 to 456 words, targets operating margin and restaurant productivity, and warns that benefits may come later than expected or not at all; implementation spans several years and varies by market.
Franchisee funding capacityThe franchise factor adds NEXT modernisation investment by franchisees; 95.9% of restaurants were franchised at 30 Sep 2026; about $8.5bn of support through 2036 (8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026).
AI tools and AI enabled attacksThe FY2025 Form 10-K adds AI enabled cyberattacks, deepfakes and risks from the company's own AI tools; the Q3 2026 supplemental names the AI enabled ArchIQ rollout, Make It Golden and generative AI investments that depend on franchisee alignment.
GLP 1 weight loss drugsWeight loss medications entered the industry trends factor in the FY2025 Form 10-K; the Q3 2026 supplemental names GLP 1 drugs and the response with flexible portion sizes and high protein options.
China and developmental marketsChina comparable sales negative in Q2 and Q3 2026 while China restaurants rose to 8,395; 48% Grand Foods stake carried at $2.13bn; equity earnings of affiliates $75m in Q3 2026.
Currency and leverageAbout 68% of FY2025 operating income earned outside the US; 39% of debt in foreign currency; debt $39.86bn against a shareholders' deficit of $1.02bn at 30 Jun 2026.

How risk factors changed

  • Comparison: 10-K FY2025 filed 24 Feb 2026 acc 0000063908-26-000035 against 10-K FY2024 filed 25 Feb 2025 acc 0000063908-25-000012.
  • The term AI appears 8 times in 3 risk factors in the FY2025 10-K against 2 times in 1 factor a year earlier, and 11 times in 5 factors in the 4 Nov 2026 supplemental
  • Weight loss medications enter the risk factors in the FY2025 10-K; by Nov 2026 the trends factor names GLP 1 drugs and describes menu changes made in response
  • Tariffs and geopolitical tensions are added to supply chain interruption causes, and anti American sentiment is added to the global operations and severe events factors
  • The reference to the Oct 2024 E. coli event in the US was removed from the food safety factor
  • The factor count stays at 25 in four groups across all filings; total text grew 4%, from 6,249 to 6,487 words, and to 6,862 words in the Nov 2026 supplemental
Figure 10.1 Risk factors by change against the prior filing
Table 10.2 Size of the risk factor section
Measure10-K FY202410-K FY2025
Risk factors (count)2525
Words in Item 1A6,2496,487
Table 10.3 Risk factors added, removed and materially reworded
ChangeRisk factorWhat changed
RewordedIT failures, network breaches or misuse of technology toolsHeading adds misuse of technology tools; body grew from 486 to 584 words and adds AI enabled cyberattacks and deepfakes, operational disruption, data integrity and algorithmic decision risks from the company's own AI tools, and compliance duties under emerging US and global AI rules on transparency, bias and explainability.
RewordedPrivacy and data protection law complianceGrew from 115 to 160 words: adds heightened risk from expanding digital engagement, data collection and AI personalisation under US state rules and the EU AI Act, with possible fines, litigation and reputational harm.
RewordedPreserving the value or relevance of the brandBody cut from 286 to 216 words; the passage on rapidly changing consumer acceptance and evolving nutrition and health studies was moved to the industry trends factor, which now names changes to dietary guidelines and use of weight loss medications.
Table 10.4 Risk factor updates in quarterly reports since the annual filing
FilingChange disclosed
10-Q Q1 2026 (Mar 2026 quarter) filed 7 May 2026Part II Item 1A refers to the full Risk Factors section in Part I Item 2; the text is identical to the FY2025 10-K apart from page furniture (25 factors, no changes).
10-Q Q2 2026 (Jun 2026 quarter) filed 7 Aug 2026Same 25 factors; the only edit adds the McDonald's NEXT strategy next to Accelerating the Arches in the business strategy factor.
8-K Ex 99.2 Q3 2026 supplemental filed 4 Nov 2026 (no Q3 2026 10-Q filed as of 4 Nov 2026)Rewords 3 factors after the 23 Sep 2026 Investor Day: the strategy factor (289 to 456 words) now targets operating margin and restaurant productivity under McDonald's NEXT, names AI enabled ArchIQ and Make It Golden and warns benefits may come later than expected or not at all; the industry trends factor adds GLP 1 weight loss drugs and new portion size and high protein menu changes; the customer experience factor adds training, hospitality and generative AI investments that depend on franchisee alignment. The franchise factor adds NEXT modernisation investment by franchisees.

11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

  • MCD last traded at $276.50 on 4 Nov 2026, the day of the Q3 2026 release, 5.1% above the prior close of $263.04. The Sep 2026 month end close of $230.94 was the lowest in the 13 months shown.
  • Valuation: 21.9x TTM GAAP EPS of $12.64 and 21.4x adjusted EPS of $12.90; 8.45x EV/Sales excluding leases; dividend yield 2.79% on the $1.93 quarterly dividend; market value $195.7bn on 707.6m shares (30 Jun 2026).
  • Scenario model: revenue grows from the TTM Q3 2026 base of $27.78bn for three years; operating margin as stated; net interest and other nonoperating cost of $1.62bn (TTM) held flat; 22% tax rate; price equals 2029 EPS times exit P/E.
Figure 11.1 MCD monthly closing price and three year scenarios

Critical factors and core assumptions

Table 11.1 Critical factors behind the best case
FactorCurrent valueBest case requiresEvidence in filings and calls
US comparable sales and guest countsQ3 2026 (0.2%), nine months +1.4% (8-K Ex 99.2); guest counts negative+3% or more with positive guest counts from 2027value test in about 1,900 restaurants, national launch early 2027 (stated on the call)
Net unit growth46,554 restaurants, +4.4%; about 2,100 net additions in 2026nearly 2.5% of Systemwide sales growth in 2027, held toward 20308-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026; 8-K Ex 99.2, 4 Nov 2026
Operating marginTTM GAAP 46.9%; nine months 2026 non GAAP 48.3%low to mid 50% range before 2030Investor Day target; about 98% franchised by end 2028 (stated on the call)
Franchisee economics under NEXTUS franchisee cash flow about $500,000 per restaurant (stated on the call)about 250 bps of efficiency, about $100,000 per US restaurant, about four year payback8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026
Developmental markets and ChinaIDL comparable sales +4.2%; China 8,395 restaurants, China comparable sales negativeChina comparable sales turn positive with unit growth continuing8-K Ex 99.1 and Ex 99.2, 4 Nov 2026
Capital intensity and cash conversionfree cash flow conversion 84% (2025); 2026 capex about $3.7bnmid to high 80% conversion by 2030 with about $3bn baseline capex8-K Ex 99.1, 23 Sep 2026
  • Base: TTM Q3 2026 revenue $27.78bn; GAAP operating income $13.04bn (46.9% margin).
  • Best case: 6% revenue CAGR as US guest counts recover, 51% operating margin, 25x P/E, share count (4%).
  • Base case: 4% revenue CAGR from unit growth of about 2.5% and comparable sales of 1% to 2%, 49% margin as refranchising adds and rent relief subtracts, 22x P/E, share count (3%).
  • Worst case: 1.5% revenue CAGR with negative US traffic and lower reported revenue from refranchising, 46% margin, 18x P/E, share count (2%).
  • Tax rate 22%, within the 21% to 23% guidance; revenue grows slower than Systemwide sales as refranchising moves Company operated sales into rent and royalty revenue.

Scenarios, three years forward

Table 11.2 Scenario analysis, TTM Q3 2026 to 2029
MeasureWorst caseBase caseBest case
Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%)1.54.06.0
Revenue, 2029 ($bn)29.131.333.1
Operating margin, 2029 (%)46.049.051.0
Net income, 2029 ($bn)9.210.711.9
EPS, 2029 ($)13.2115.5617.52
Exit P/E (x)18.022.025.0
Implied price ($)238342438
Change against $276.50 (%)(14)2458
Implied annual return (%)(4.9)7.416.6
Implied annual return excludes dividends ($1.93 per share quarterly). Margins are GAAP; the 2030 target is the company's.
Figure 11.2 Three year price scenarios

Sensitivity analysis

Table 11.3 Sensitivity of implied price to revenue CAGR and operating margin at 22x P/E
Revenue CAGR \ Operating margin46%48%49%51%53%
2%$299$313$321$335$350
3%$309$324$331$347$362
4%$319$335$342$358$374
5%$329$345$354$370$386
6%$340$357$365$381$398
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Last trade of 4 Nov 2026 $276.50. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below.
Table 11.4 Sensitivity of implied price to exit P/E and operating margin at 4% revenue CAGR
Exit P/E \ Operating margin46%48%49%51%53%
18x$261$274$280$293$306
20x$290$304$311$325$340
22x$319$335$342$358$374
25x$362$380$389$407$425
28x$406$426$436$456$476
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Last trade of 4 Nov 2026 $276.50. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 4 November 2026.

Sources

All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Call statements are taken from the Q3 2025 to Q3 2026 earnings calls held by the company and are labelled as stated on the call.

Table A.1 Filings used, with accession numbers
FormPeriodFiledAccession number
8-KQ3 20264 Nov 20260000063908-26-000080
8-K Ex 99.2Q3 20264 Nov 20260000063908-26-000080
8-KInvestor Day23 Sep 20260000063908-26-000076
10-QQ2 20267 Aug 20260000063908-26-000073
8-KQ2 20264 Aug 20260000063908-26-000067
8-KExecutive change4 Aug 20260000063908-26-000069
8-KAnnual meeting22 May 20260000063908-26-000055
10-QQ1 20267 May 20260000063908-26-000051
8-KQ1 20267 May 20260000063908-26-000048
DEF 14A2026 proxy7 Apr 20260001193125-26-145548
10-KFY202524 Feb 20260000063908-26-000035
8-KQ4 202511 Feb 20260000063908-26-000032
10-QQ3 20255 Nov 20250000063908-25-000059
10-QQ2 20256 Aug 20250000063908-25-000039
10-QQ1 202512 May 20250000063908-25-000025
10-KFY202322 Feb 20240000063908-24-000072
10-KFY202224 Feb 20230000063908-23-000012
Schedule 13G20267 Aug 20260000093751-26-000496
Schedule 13G/A202622 Jul 20260000019617-26-000286
Schedule 13G202630 Apr 20260002100119-26-000873
Table A.2 Further McDonald's and peer filings used
CompanyFormFiledAccession number
McDonald's10-K FY202425 Feb 20250000063908-25-000012
McDonald's8-K5 Nov 20250000063908-25-000057
McDonald's8-K10 Feb 20260000063908-26-000028
McDonald's8-K2 Apr 20260000063908-26-000042
Yum! Brands10-Q2026 (latest 10-Q)0001041061-26-000160
Restaurant Brands International10-Q2026 (latest 10-Q)0001618756-26-000056
Chipotle Mexican Grill10-Q2026 (latest 10-Q)0001058090-26-000104
Domino's Pizza10-Q2026 (latest 10-Q)0001286681-26-000040
Chipotle Mexican Grill8-K Ex 99.128 Oct 20260001058090-26-000103
Domino's Pizza8-K Ex 99.113 Oct 20260001286681-26-000039
Restaurant Brands International8-K Ex 9929 Oct 20260001618756-26-000051
Wendy's8-K Ex 99.17 Aug 20260001193125-26-339132
Yum China8-K Ex 99.13 Nov 20260001193125-26-444429
Yum! Brands8-K Ex 99.13 Nov 20260001041061-26-000195
Table B.1 Exhibits to Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
FiledExhibitDocumentContent
5 Nov 2025EX-99.1Q3 2025 results releaseGlobal comparable sales up 3.6%: US 2.4%, International Operated Markets 4.3%, International Developmental Licensed Markets 4.7%; Systemwide sales above $36bn, up 8% (6% in constant currency); loyalty sales about $34bn over twelve months across 60 markets
5 Nov 2025EX-99.2Q3 2025 supplemental informationUS revenue (franchised plus company operated) $2.70bn; International Operated Markets $3.61bn, up 10%; Operating margin 46.5% against 45.3%; nine month non GAAP operating margin 47.2%
10 Feb 2026EX-99.1Ford CEO James Farley elected to the boardFarley elected effective 4 Feb 2026, raising the board to 12 members; Board states half of its directors joined since 2022
11 Feb 2026EX-99.1Q4 and FY2025 results releaseQ4 global comparable sales up 5.7%: US 6.8%, International Operated Markets 5.2%, International Developmental Licensed Markets 4.5%, with positive global guest counts; FY2025 Systemwide sales above $139bn, up 7% (5% in constant currency); loyalty sales up 20% to nearly $37bn; 90 day active loyalty users up 19% to nearly 210m
11 Feb 2026EX-99.2Q4 and FY2025 supplemental information and 2026 outlookFY2025 operating income by segment: US $5.81bn (up 1%), International Operated Markets $6.38bn (up 7%), Developmental Licensed and Corporate $203m; FY2025 franchised sales $129.7bn: US $51.9bn, International Operated Markets $42.4bn, Developmental Licensed $35.3bn (up 12%)
2 Apr 20268-K amendment body (no exhibits; Item 5.02)Farley committee assignmentsOn 30 Mar 2026 the board appointed James Farley to the Audit and Finance Committee and the Corporate Responsibility Committee
7 May 2026EX-99.1Q1 2026 results releaseGlobal comparable sales up 3.8%: US 3.9%, International Operated Markets 3.9%, International Developmental Licensed Markets 3.4%; Systemwide sales above $34bn, up 11% (6% in constant currency); loyalty sales above $38bn over twelve months
7 May 2026EX-99.2Q1 2026 supplemental informationInternational Operated Markets revenue $3.26bn, up 14%; US revenue $2.48bn, up 3%; Operating margin 45.3% against 44.5%; effective tax rate 22.0% against 19.8%
22 May 20268-K body (no exhibits; Item 5.07)2026 annual meeting vote resultsMeeting held 20 May 2026; all 12 directors elected; support of votes cast ranged from 92.3% (Chris Kempczinski) to 99.6% (Jennifer Taubert); Say on pay approved with 95.1% of votes cast
4 Aug 2026EX-99.1Q2 2026 results releaseGlobal comparable sales up 1.3%: US 0.8%, International Operated Markets 1.5%, International Developmental Licensed Markets 1.9%; US guest counts negative; Systemwide sales $37bn, up 5% (4% in constant currency); twelve month loyalty sales up over 20% to $40bn; 90 day active users up 13% to nearly 220m
4 Aug 2026EX-99.2Q2 2026 supplemental informationUS operating income $1.57bn, up 3%; International Operated Markets $1.72bn, up 5%; Developmental Licensed and Corporate $42m against $70m; Operating margin 46.2%; tax rate 19.5% on discrete items
4 Aug 2026EX-99.1Skye Anderson named President of McDonald's USAAnderson, 26 years at McDonald's and US Chief Operating Officer since earlier in 2026, appointed 4 Aug 2026 to lead nearly 14,000 US restaurants; Succeeds Joe Erlinger, who led the US business for almost seven years; per Item 5.02 he stays as adviser until early 2027 with no change to pay
23 Sep 2026EX-99.1Investor Day: McDonald's NEXT strategy and 2030 targetsTargets 1.5 percentage points of share gains in both chicken and beverages by 2030 while keeping beef share leadership; Operating margin target of low to mid 50% range by 2030; G&A about 1.9% of Systemwide sales; free cash flow conversion mid to high 80% range
4 Nov 2026EX-99.1Q3 2026 results releaseGlobal comparable sales up 1.5%: US down 0.2%, International Operated Markets up 1.4%, International Developmental Licensed Markets up 4.2%; China comparable sales negative; Systemwide sales above $38bn, up 4%; loyalty sales $41bn over twelve months and above $11bn in the quarter
4 Nov 2026EX-99.2Q3 2026 supplemental informationUS operating income $1.63bn, up 8%; International Operated Markets $1.80bn, up 2%; Developmental Licensed and Corporate $174m against $97m; Other operating income $139m against $37m, including $97m of gains on sales of restaurant businesses, mostly in the US