November 2, 2026·38 min read
Mondelez International (MDLZ), Financial Analysis
Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.
Net revenues Q3 2026
$9.97bn
+2.3% year on year (Q3 2025 $9.74bn)
Operating costs Q3 2026
$8.21bn
(8.8%) year on year (Q3 2025 $9.00bn)
Operating margin Q3 2026
17.6%
+10.0 pts year on year (Q3 2025 7.6%)
Key findings
- Cocoa costs fell and margins recovered. Q3 2026 net revenues $9.97bn, +2.3%; adjusted gross margin (non GAAP) 34.2% against 30.4%; lower input costs added $329m to adjusted operating income at constant currency.
- Reported profit swings with derivative marks. Operating income $1.76bn, +136.3%, margin 17.6% against 7.6%, incl. a $543m mark to market gain against a $348m loss in Q3 2025; adjusted operating income $1.38bn, margin 13.9%.
- Growth moved from price to volume. Organic growth +2.1% with volume/mix +1.8 points and pricing +0.3 points, against pricing +9.9 points and volume/mix (4.8) points in Q4 2025.
- Europe reverses its 2025 price increases. Europe organic (2.1%) with pricing (3.7) points; AMEA +7.7% and Latin America +6.9%; North America +1.6%, all from pricing.
- Outlook kept. FY2026 organic growth at least 2% (raised in July from flat to 2%), adjusted EPS flat to +5% at constant currency on $2.92, free cash flow about $3bn against $1.66bn in 9M 2026; agreement to acquire Undercover Snacks.
- Shares at $65.40 on 2 Nov 2026, +21.5% since the Dec 2025 close, 20.3x TTM GAAP net income incl. derivative gains and 22.6x TTM adjusted EPS of $2.90. Model prices in three years: base $76, best $105, worst $44.
Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2021 to FY2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q3 2025 to Q3 2026, the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the quarterly earnings releases (Ex 99.1) with their outlook and non GAAP sections, which serve as the CFO commentary together with the earnings calls, the leadership releases (Ex 99.1), the 364 day credit agreement (Ex 10.1) and the Form 8-K Item 5.07 vote results, the proxy statement of 2026, Schedules 13G and Forms 4 on the record for central index key 1103982, together with the Forms 10-K, 10-Q, 8-K and 6-K of Hershey, PepsiCo, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Campbell's, J.M. Smucker, Utz Brands, Tootsie Roll Industries, Coca-Cola and Coca-Cola FEMSA. Accession numbers appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are last trades of 2 November 2026 before the market open.
1 Revenue & Business Model
- Storyline: record cocoa costs drove 2025 pricing and margin compression; in 2026 cocoa costs fall, pricing fades and volume returns, unevenly by region. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three revenue drivers: chocolate and Europe; biscuits and North America; emerging markets in AMEA and Latin America.
- Snacks maker in over 150 countries with 145 principal manufacturing facilities in 49 countries and about 91,000 employees (10-K FY2025). Biscuits and baked snacks were $18.39bn (47.7%) of FY2025 net revenues and chocolate $12.70bn (32.9%).
- Four regional segments, FY2025: Europe $15.03bn (39.0% of revenue), North America $10.68bn, AMEA $7.93bn, Latin America $4.90bn. Segment operating income excludes derivative marks, corporate costs and amortization: $5.28bn in FY2025 against consolidated operating income of $3.55bn.
- Revenue FY2021 $28.7bn to FY2025 $38.5bn, a 7.6% CAGR; TTM Q3 2026 $39.9bn. 75.8% of FY2025 revenue came from outside the United States; emerging markets were $15.36bn (39.9%).
- Q3 2026 categories against Q3 2025 (restated): biscuits and baked snacks +2.2%, chocolate +0.1%, gum and candy +9.8%, beverages (4.1%).
Table 1.1 Segment net revenues, operating income and margin, FY2021 to FY2025
| Segment | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe net revenues ($bn) | 11.16 | 11.42 | 12.86 | 13.31 | 15.03 |
| North America net revenues ($bn) | 8.30 | 9.68 | 11.08 | 10.91 | 10.68 |
| AMEA net revenues ($bn) | 6.47 | 6.77 | 7.08 | 7.30 | 7.93 |
| Latin America net revenues ($bn) | 2.80 | 3.63 | 5.01 | 4.93 | 4.90 |
| Europe segment operating income ($bn) | 2.09 | 1.48 | 1.98 | 2.07 | 1.82 |
| North America segment operating income ($bn) | 1.37 | 1.77 | 2.09 | 2.49 | 1.90 |
| AMEA segment operating income ($bn) | 1.05 | 0.93 | 1.11 | 1.19 | 0.99 |
| Latin America segment operating income ($bn) | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.57 |
| Europe segment operating margin (%) | 18.8 | 13.0 | 15.4 | 15.5 | 12.1 |
| North America segment operating margin (%) | 16.5 | 18.3 | 18.9 | 22.8 | 17.8 |
| AMEA segment operating margin (%) | 16.3 | 13.7 | 15.7 | 16.3 | 12.4 |
| Latin America segment operating margin (%) | 9.3 | 10.7 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 11.6 |
Segment operating income as filed in the segment note; it excludes unrealized derivative gains and losses, general corporate expenses, amortization of intangibles and acquisition and divestiture items.
Table 1.2 Segment net revenues and operating margin, last five quarters
| Segment | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe net revenues ($bn) | 3.67 | 4.39 | 3.87 | 3.38 | 3.55 |
| Europe segment operating margin (%) | 7.5 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 9.5 |
| North America net revenues ($bn) | 2.82 | 2.76 | 2.56 | 2.63 | 2.85 |
| North America segment operating margin (%) | 19.4 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 16.4 | 15.7 |
| AMEA net revenues ($bn) | 2.02 | 2.08 | 2.30 | 1.97 | 2.18 |
| AMEA segment operating margin (%) | 9.9 | 8.3 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 17.0 |
| Latin America net revenues ($bn) | 1.24 | 1.26 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.39 |
| Latin America segment operating margin (%) | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 12.1 | 12.3 |
Q4 2025 equals FY2025 less 9M 2025.
Table 1.3 Net revenues by product category ($bn)
| Category | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biscuits and baked snacks | 4.79 | 4.89 | 2.2 |
| Chocolate | 3.09 | 3.09 | 0.1 |
| Gum and candy | 1.05 | 1.15 | 9.8 |
| Meals (cheese and grocery) | 0.60 | 0.62 | 3.7 |
| Beverages | 0.22 | 0.21 | (4.1) |
2026 Forms 10-Q basis with categories renamed Biscuits & Baked Snacks and Meals; Q3 2025 as restated in the Q3 2026 10-Q.
Table 1.4 Organic growth and its components, last five quarters
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Organic growth, total (%) | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Volume/mix (points) | (4.6) | (4.8) | (0.5) | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Pricing (points) | 8.0 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Europe organic growth (%) | 5.1 | 8.3 | (0.6) | (3.5) | (2.1) |
| North America organic growth (%) | (0.3) | (0.5) | 0.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| AMEA organic growth (%) | 5.3 | 7.5 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 7.7 |
| Latin America organic growth (%) | 4.7 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 |
| Emerging markets organic growth (%) | 7.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Developed markets organic growth (%) | 1.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Net revenues growth, reported (%) | 5.9 | 9.3 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 2.3 |
Organic growth, volume/mix and pricing are company non GAAP measures stated in the Forms 8-K Ex 99.1; organic growth excludes currency, acquisitions, divestitures and Argentina pricing above 26% a year.
2 Chocolate & Europe: Cocoa Relief Meets a Price Reset
- Chocolate net revenues $3.09bn in Q3 2026, +0.1%; 9M 2026 $9.42bn, +5.2%. Chocolate grew 12.9% in FY2025 to $12.70bn on cocoa driven pricing (10-K).
- Europe net revenues $3.55bn in Q3 2026, (3.3%); Europe chocolate $1.70bn, (5.7%). Organic growth turned from +8.3% in Q4 2025 to (2.1%) as pricing moved from +15.7 points to (3.7) points and volume/mix from (7.4) points to +1.6 points.
- Europe profit rose on lower cocoa costs: segment operating income $339m against $275m; adjusted segment operating income (non GAAP) $459m against $300m, +53.0%.
- Management on cocoa (Q3 2026 call): a 2025/26 surplus of nearly 500,000 tonnes and a 2026/27 deficit of about 190,000 tonnes on a smaller Ivory Coast and Ghana main crop; industry cover about nine months; lower cocoa costs helped Q3 and are expected to help Q4 2026. In Feb 2026 the CFO said 2026 cocoa costs were locked in above spot prices and chocolate pricing would be flat for the year.
How the chocolate market is changing
- Prices reset after the cocoa spike: Mondelez Europe pricing fell to (3.7) points in Q3 2026 after +15.7 points in Q4 2025, while Hershey North America Confectionery still took about 13 points of price with volume down about 11 points (Hershey 8-K Ex 99.1, 29 Oct 2026).
- Cost relief at different speeds: Hershey adjusted gross margin 42.7%, +1,090 basis points, helped by tariff refunds; Tootsie Roll said Q3 2026 cocoa and chocolate costs were below H1 2026 but above historical levels.
- Supply and regulation: management cites a 2026/27 cocoa deficit; Mondelez names the EU Deforestation Regulation as a cocoa supply factor (10-K FY2025), and deforestation appears in four risk factors against two a year earlier.
- Weather: hot weather cut Europe growth by about 1 point in Q3 2026 and a heat wave lowered chocolate volumes in Q2 2026 (calls and prepared remarks).
Table 2.1 Chocolate and confectionery businesses, latest reported quarter
| Company | Line and period | Filed detail | Revenue | Growth (%) | Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hershey | North America Confectionery net sales, Q3 2026 (quarter to 27 Sep 2026) | Segment income $949.7m (+66.2%); price +13 points, volume (11) points | $2.66bn | 1.6 | 35.8 |
| Hershey | International net sales, Q3 2026 (quarter to 27 Sep 2026) | Organic (9.7%); volume (14%) | $226.4m | (7.5) | (13.3) |
| Hershey | Consolidated net sales, Q3 2026 (quarter to 27 Sep 2026) | Adjusted gross margin 42.7% (+1,090 bp), helped by tariff refunds; margin shown is adjusted operating margin | $3.28bn | 3.0 | 23.0 |
| Tootsie Roll Industries | Net sales, Q3 2026 | Net earnings $23.2m against $35.7m; Halloween shipment timing shifted into Q4 | $227.2m | (1.5) | n/a |
Hershey margins are segment income over segment sales; consolidated margin shown is adjusted operating margin (non GAAP). European chocolate makers (Lindt, Ferrero, Nestle, Barry Callebaut) do not file with the SEC.
3 Biscuits & North America: Volume Returns in a Flat Category
- Biscuits and baked snacks $4.89bn in Q3 2026, +2.2%, 49.1% of revenue; North America biscuits $2.43bn, (0.2%).
- North America net revenues $2.85bn, +1.1%; segment operating income $448m against $547m, margin 15.7% against 19.4%. Organic +1.6% with volume/mix flat and pricing +1.6 points, after +3.4% in Q2 2026 with volume/mix +1.2 points.
- Segment margin trend: North America 22.8% in FY2024 and 17.8% in FY2025; adjusted segment margin (non GAAP) 18.0% in Q3 2026 against 19.5%.
- Management (Q3 2026 call): 2027 North America pricing to be selective, mostly through price pack architecture; North America and Latin America moved to the new ERP system in Q3 2026. On the Q4 2025 call the CEO said US biscuit category volume fell 3% in 2025.
How the North American snack market is changing
- Volume is flat to lower across large snack makers: PepsiCo Foods North America organic revenue flat with volume +0.5 points and pricing (1) point, operating profit (13%), in the 12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026; Campbell's Snacks (12.4%) with $117m of trademark impairments; Smucker Sweet Baked Snacks (6.6%).
- Growth comes through acquisitions and better for you products: Hershey Salty Snacks +22.3% incl. about 20 points from LesserEvil; Mondelez agreed to buy Undercover Snacks; Utz agreed on 20 Jul 2026 to be taken private by Intersnack Group at $14.25 per share.
- Demand factors named by management: GLP 1 adoption of 10% to 20% in the US estimated to cut volumes by 0.5% to 1.5% over ten years (Q4 2025 call); the FY2025 10-K adds SNAP and nutrition based taxes to the consumer risk factor.
Table 3.1 North American snack businesses, latest reported quarter
| Company | Line and period | Filed detail | Revenue | Growth (%) | Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo | PepsiCo Foods North America net revenue, Sep 2026 quarter (12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026) | Operating profit $1.33bn, (13%); organic flat | $6.50bn | (0.3) | 20.5 |
| Campbell's | Snacks net sales, Aug 2026 quarter (Q4 FY2026) | Prior year quarter had an extra week; organic (6%); operating earnings $101m | $950.0m | (12.4) | 10.6 |
| J.M. Smucker | Sweet Baked Snacks net sales, Jul 2026 quarter (Q1 FY2027) | Segment profit $29.9m, (13%) | $236.5m | (6.6) | 12.6 |
| Hershey | North America Salty Snacks net sales, Q3 2026 (quarter to 27 Sep 2026) | LesserEvil acquisition added about 20 points; organic +2.3% | $392.7m | 22.3 | 12.1 |
| Utz Brands | Net sales, Q2 2026 (quarter to 28 Jun 2026) | Adjusted EBITDA $55.7m (+14.4%); take private deal with Intersnack pending | $371.8m | 1.4 | n/a |
Periods differ as shown; margin is segment profit over segment sales; Utz reports adjusted EBITDA.
4 Emerging Markets: AMEA and Latin America Shift from Price to Volume
- Emerging markets net revenues $4.07bn in Q3 2026, +4.9%, 40.9% of revenue; organic +4.1% after +8.0% in Q4 2025, with pricing down from +11.8 points to +1.9 points and volume/mix up from (3.8) points to +2.2 points.
- AMEA $2.18bn, +8.2%; organic +7.7% with volume/mix +5.5 points; segment operating income $372m against $199m; adjusted segment margin (non GAAP) 15.2% against 12.3%.
- Latin America $1.39bn, +12.0%; organic +6.9% with pricing +6.1 points and volume/mix +0.8 points; segment operating income $170m against $147m. Latin America gum and candy $461m, +16.4%.
- Distribution (Q3 2026 call): India and China growing above 20% per the COO; about 130,000 outlets added in India in the year to date; more than 1m stores reached in Brazil; Argentina the main drag on Latin America volume.
How emerging market snacking is changing
- Volume replaces price as inflation eases: PepsiCo Asia Pacific Foods volume +11% with pricing (2) points and Latin America Foods organic +6% in the 12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026; Mondelez AMEA volume/mix +5.5 points in Q3 2026.
- Beverage companies report similar regional patterns: Coca-Cola Latin America net operating revenues +24.5% in Q3 2026 with price/mix +7% and currency about +9 points; Coca-Cola FEMSA volume +5.3%.
- Currency moves reported growth: currency added 5.1 points to Mondelez Latin America reported growth in Q3 2026; organic growth excludes Argentina pricing above 26% a year.
- Structural demand: Mondelez states snack consumption is highly correlated with GDP growth, urbanization and rising discretionary income in emerging markets (10-K FY2025).
Table 4.1 Emerging market food and beverage businesses, latest reported quarter
| Company | Line and period | Filed detail | Revenue | Growth (%) | Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo | Latin America Foods net revenue, Sep 2026 quarter (12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026) | Organic +6%; volume +2.5 points; operating profit $624m | $3.02bn | 13.7 | 20.7 |
| PepsiCo | Asia Pacific Foods net revenue, Sep 2026 quarter (12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026) | Organic +9%; volume +11%; pricing (2) points | $1.23bn | 10.2 | 14.2 |
| PepsiCo | EMEA net revenue (foods and beverages), Sep 2026 quarter (12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026) | Organic +9%; effective net pricing +7 points | $5.41bn | 7.8 | 16.6 |
| Coca-Cola | Latin America net operating revenues, Q3 2026 | Operating income $1.15bn; price/mix +7% | $1.96bn | 24.5 | 58.8 |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | Total revenues, Q3 2026 | Volume +5.3% | MXN 79.72bn | 10.9 | 14.9 |
| Hershey | International net sales, Q3 2026 (quarter to 27 Sep 2026) | Organic (9.7%); volume (14%) | $226.4m | (7.5) | (13.3) |
PepsiCo 12 weeks to 5 Sep 2026; Coca-Cola FEMSA in Mexican pesos (6-K); PepsiCo EMEA combines foods and beverages; Coca-Cola margin is segment operating income over segment revenue.
5 Financial Analysis & Ratios
- Operating margin 9.2% in FY2025 and 13.7% TTM, against 17.4% in FY2024. The swings follow mark to market results on commodity and currency derivatives: a $543m gain in FY2024, a $1.34bn loss in FY2025 and a $1.10bn gain in 9M 2026. Adjusted operating margin (non GAAP) was 16.2% in FY2024, 13.2% in FY2025 and 12.9% in 9M 2026.
- Net income TTM $4.08bn, diluted EPS $3.18, against adjusted EPS (non GAAP) of $2.90. FY2025 net income $2.45bn also carried pension buy out settlement losses of $282m and $54m and a $169m gain from a JAB payment tied to the former JDE Peet's stake.
- Cash flow: operating cash flow $2.61bn in 9M 2026 against $2.12bn in 9M 2025; free cash flow $1.66bn in 9M 2026 and $3.66bn TTM; FY2025 free cash flow $3.24bn.
- Balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026: total debt $21.7bn against $21.2bn at FY2025 and $17.7bn at FY2024; cash $1.63bn; net debt $20.1bn; debt to capitalization 0.45; goodwill and intangibles $43.4bn, 60.4% of total assets.
- Capital returns 9M 2026: dividends $1927m and buybacks $845m; Q3 2026 repurchases 10.97m shares at $60.57; about $5.8bn left of the $9bn authorization running to Dec 2027; quarterly dividend $0.52 since Jul 2026.
Table 5.1 Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet summary ($bn unless stated)
| Line item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 28.7 | 31.5 | 36.0 | 36.4 | 38.5 | 39.9 |
| Gross profit | 11.3 | 11.3 | 13.8 | 14.3 | 10.9 | 13.7 |
| Selling, general and administrative | 6.3 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.9 |
| Operating income | 4.7 | 3.5 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| Net income | 4.3 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 4.1 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 3.04 | 1.96 | 3.62 | 3.42 | 1.89 | 3.18 |
| Operating cash flow | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.0 |
| Capital expenditure | (1.0) | (0.9) | (1.1) | (1.4) | (1.3) | (1.3) |
| Free cash flow | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| Stock based compensation | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Cash and investments | 3.5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Total debt | 19.5 | 22.9 | 19.4 | 17.7 | 21.2 | 21.7 |
| Total equity | 28.3 | 26.9 | 28.3 | 26.9 | 25.8 | 26.6 |
Capital expenditure is the capital expenditures line of the cash flow statement. Total debt is short term borrowings plus current and long term debt incl. finance leases. Total equity excludes noncontrolling interest. TTM equals Q4 2025 plus Q1 to Q3 2026. Mondelez reports no separate research and development line.
Table 5.2 What changed, Q3 2026 against Q3 2025
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($bn) | 9.74 | 9.97 | 2.3% |
| Gross profit ($bn) | 2.61 | 3.92 | 50.2% |
| Operating income ($bn) | 0.74 | 1.76 | 136.3% |
| Net income ($bn) | 0.74 | 1.31 | 75.6% |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 0.57 | 1.02 | 78.9% |
| Operating cash flow ($bn) | 0.72 | 1.28 | 79.1% |
| Free cash flow ($bn) | 0.42 | 0.99 | 137.1% |
| Operating margin (%) | 7.6 | 17.6 | 10.0 pts |
| Net margin (%) | 7.6 | 13.1 | 5.5 pts |
Table 5.3 Ratio analysis
| Ratio | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth and margins | ||||||
| Revenue growth (%) | n/a | 9.7 | 14.4 | 1.2 | 5.8 | n/a |
| Gross margin (%) | 39.2 | 35.9 | 38.2 | 39.1 | 28.4 | 34.3 |
| Operating margin (%) | 16.2 | 11.2 | 15.3 | 17.4 | 9.2 | 13.7 |
| Net margin (%) | 15.0 | 8.6 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 10.2 |
| FCF margin (%) | 11.1 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 9.2 |
| Cost and investment intensity | ||||||
| SBC (%) revenue | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Capex (%) revenue | 3.4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| Effective tax rate (%) | 27.2 | 26.8 | 26.1 | 23.5 | 25.9 | 24.0 |
| Returns | ||||||
| ROE (%) | 15.2 | 9.9 | 18.0 | 16.7 | 9.3 | 15.3 |
| ROA (%) | 6.4 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 5.7 |
| ROIC (%) | 7.7 | 5.4 | 8.8 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 8.9 |
| Asset turnover (x) | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| Liquidity and leverage | ||||||
| Current ratio (x) | 0.74 | 0.60 | 0.62 | 0.68 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| Debt to equity (x) | 0.69 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Net cash ($bn) | (16.0) | (21.0) | (17.6) | (16.4) | (19.1) | (20.1) |
| Efficiency and cash quality | ||||||
| Days sales outstanding | 30 | 36 | 37 | 39 | 37 | 45 |
| Inventory days | 57 | 61 | 59 | 63 | 58 | 62 |
| FCF to net income (x) | 0.74 | 1.10 | 0.73 | 0.76 | 1.32 | 0.90 |
| Shareholder returns (%) FCF | 124 | 133 | 103 | 133 | 151 | 107 |
ROE and ROA use average balances for FY2022 to FY2025 and period end balances for FY2021 and TTM. Reported margins include mark to market gains and losses on derivatives.
Table 5.4 Valuation snapshot at $65.40 per share, 2 Nov 2026
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap ($bn) | 82.8 |
| Enterprise value ($bn) | 102.9 |
| P/E (TTM) (x) | 20.3 |
| EV/Sales (TTM) (x) | 2.6 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) (x) | 15.0 |
| FCF yield (%) | 4.4 |
| Price/Book (x) | 3.1 |
Reported against adjusted results
- Derivative marks explain most of the gap. Mondelez hedges cocoa and other inputs and currencies; unrealized gains and losses on these derivatives run through cost of sales and operating income until the hedged costs are recognized, and the company removes them from its adjusted measures and from segment results.
- Q3 2026: reported operating income $1.76bn includes a $543m gain; adjusted operating income $1.38bn, +18.2%. Q3 2025 reported operating income $0.74bn included a $348m loss. Reported gross margin 39.4% against adjusted 34.2%.
- Full years: FY2024 reported operating income $6.35bn against adjusted $5.90bn (gain $543m); FY2025 reported $3.55bn against adjusted $5.07bn (loss $1.34bn). Diluted EPS fell 44.7% in FY2025 while adjusted EPS fell 14.6% at constant currency.
Table 5.5 Reported and adjusted results ($bn unless stated)
| Measure | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | 9M 2025 | 9M 2026 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income, reported | 0.74 | 1.76 | 2.60 | 4.51 | 3.55 |
| Mark to market gain (loss) on derivatives | (0.35) | 0.54 | (1.11) | 1.10 | (1.34) |
| Adjusted operating income (non GAAP) | 1.17 | 1.38 | 3.83 | 3.79 | 5.07 |
| Operating margin, reported (%) | 7.6 | 17.6 | 9.3 | 15.3 | 9.2 |
| Adjusted operating margin (%) | 12.0 | 13.9 | 13.7 | 12.9 | 13.2 |
| Diluted EPS, reported ($) | 0.57 | 1.02 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.89 |
| Adjusted EPS (non GAAP, $) | 0.73 | 0.78 | 2.20 | 2.18 | 2.92 |
Adjusted figures are company non GAAP measures from the Forms 8-K Ex 99.1; beside the derivative marks they exclude restructuring, ERP system costs, impairments, acquisition items and other items. 9M EPS is the sum of quarterly EPS.
Cost structure and profitability
- Cost of sales 60.6% of Q3 2026 revenue against 73.2% in Q3 2025, with derivative marks inside both figures; on the adjusted basis gross margin rose 380 basis points to 34.2% on lower cocoa costs.
- SG&A 20.2% of revenue against 18.4%, $2.01bn, +12.1%; advertising and consumer spending grew double digits in Q2 2026 (prepared remarks), and SG&A took $227m from adjusted operating income in Q3 2026.
- Costs (revenue less operating income) $8.21bn in Q3 2026, (8.8%), against revenue +2.3%; the Q3 2026 mark to market gain lowers reported costs.
- Capex 2.9% of Q3 2026 revenue; 9M 2026 capex $0.95bn against FY2026 guidance of up to $1.4bn.
Table 5.6 Costs and margins as % of revenue, last five quarters
| Line | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of sales (% of revenue) | 73.2 | 71.8 | 72.2 | 57.4 | 60.6 |
| SG&A (% of revenue) | 18.4 | 18.5 | 19.0 | 21.4 | 20.2 |
| Restructuring, impairment and amortization (% of revenue) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Operating margin, reported (%) | 7.6 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 20.8 | 17.6 |
| Gross margin, adjusted, non GAAP (%) | 30.4 | 30.5 | 30.7 | 34.0 | 34.2 |
| Operating margin, adjusted, non GAAP (%) | 12.0 | 11.9 | 11.7 | 13.1 | 13.9 |
| Capex (% of revenue) | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.9 |
6 MD&A & Management Commentary
Q3 2026 results release and earnings call
- Q3 2026 (29 Oct 2026): net revenues $9.97bn, +2.3%; organic +2.1%; operating income $1.76bn, +136.3%; diluted EPS $1.02 against $0.57; adjusted EPS $0.78, +5.5% at constant currency.
- Adjusted operating income bridge at constant currency (10-Q): lower input costs +$329m, volume/mix +$54m, pricing +$31m, higher SG&A ($227m) incl. advertising and consumer spending.
- Margins: gross margin 39.4% reported and 34.2% adjusted (+380 basis points); the 10-Q names lower cocoa costs against the prior year while other inputs (packaging, nuts, edible oils, energy, grains) rose and dairy and sugar fell.
- Items affecting comparability, 9M 2026 (10-Q): derivative mark to market gain $1.10bn; ERP system costs $174m; restructuring $111m under a program started in Q4 2025; intangible asset impairments $64m; incremental geopolitical costs $40m. Effective tax rate 24.6% in Q3 2026 against 19.7%.
- Regions: Europe organic (2.1%) with pricing (3.7) points as 2025 increases are lapped and hot weather taking about 1 point; North America +1.6%, all pricing; AMEA +7.7% with volume/mix +5.5 points; Latin America +6.9% with pricing +6.1 points.
- Q2 2026 (28 Jul 2026): net revenues $9.36bn, +4.1%; organic +2.2%; adjusted EPS $0.73; FY2026 organic outlook raised to at least 2%; dividend raised 4%. Company prepared remarks state 65% of revenue held or gained share in the year to date.
Table 6.1 FY2026 outlook and every revision in 2026
| Item | Outlook | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Organic net revenue growth FY2026 | flat to +2% (3 Feb); unchanged (28 Apr); at least 2% (28 Jul); at least 2% (29 Oct) | 8-K Ex 99.1 of each quarter |
| Adjusted EPS growth FY2026, constant currency | flat to +5% on the FY2025 base of $2.92; unchanged on 28 Apr, 28 Jul and 29 Oct | 8-K Ex 99.1 |
| Free cash flow FY2026 | about $3bn, unchanged in all four releases; 9M 2026 actual $1.66bn | 8-K Ex 99.1 |
| Currency effect FY2026 | net revenues about +2.0% and adjusted EPS +$0.06 (28 Apr); +2.0% and +$0.05 (28 Jul); about +1.5% and +$0.04 (29 Oct) | 8-K Ex 99.1 |
| Capital expenditures FY2026 | up to $1.5bn (10-K, Feb 2026); up to $1.4bn (10-Q Q3 2026) | 10-K FY2025; 10-Q Q3 2026 |
| Interest, tax and buybacks FY2026 | interest expense about $375m; adjusted effective tax rate in the mid 20s; share repurchases up to $2bn | Q2 2026 prepared remarks, 28 Jul 2026 |
| FY2027 | no numeric guidance; CFO expects EPS growth in 2027 and called a 2027 sales outlook premature | Q3 2026 call |
| Scope | outlook excludes any potential tariff changes to USMCA compliant trade | 8-K Ex 99.1, Q3 2026 |
Management and CFO commentary
- CFO Amit Banati, Q3 2026 call: FY2026 outlook kept, with any upside to be reinvested; costs of the Middle East conflict absorbed within the outlook, $40m of incremental geopolitical costs in 9M 2026; EPS growth expected in 2027, without figures; a 2027 sales outlook called premature.
- CEO Dirk Van de Put, Q3 2026 call: 2025/26 cocoa surplus of nearly 500,000 tonnes, 2026/27 deficit of about 190,000 tonnes; Europe pricing expected to stay negative for a couple of quarters, with two year cumulative pricing as the reference.
- COO Luca Zaramella, Q3 2026 call: India and China growing above 20%; about 130,000 outlets added in India in the year to date; more than 1m stores reached in Brazil.
- CEO, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 29 Oct 2026: growth driven by broad based volume, organic +2.1% with volume/mix +1.8 points; Undercover Snacks extends the permissible indulgence segment.
- Q2 2026 prepared remarks (28 Jul 2026): FY2026 assumptions of about $375m interest expense, an adjusted tax rate in the mid 20s, buybacks up to $2bn and a currency tailwind of 2 points to revenue; H1 2026 free cash flow about $0.7bn.
- CFO Luca Zaramella, Q4 2025 call (3 Feb 2026): chocolate pricing expected flat in 2026, with cost and pricing net roughly neutral to slightly positive; advertising and consumer spending fell about 25% in 2025, mostly non working media; 2026 emerging market growth to rely more on volume.
- CEO, Q4 2025 call: US biscuit category volume down 3% in 2025; Ghana and Ivory Coast supply about 60% to 65% of global cocoa.
Table 6.2 Management statements in their own words
| Speaker | Date and source | Statement |
|---|---|---|
| Dirk Van de Put, Chair and CEO | 3 Feb 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “unprecedented cocoa cost headwinds impacted our profitability” |
| Dirk Van de Put, Chair and CEO | 28 Jul 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “In Europe, share dynamics are showing early positive trends” |
| Dirk Van de Put, Chair and CEO | 29 Oct 2026, Q3 2026 earnings call, on cocoa | “the fundamentals are in a much stronger position than in the previous crisis” |
Table 6.3 Key disclosures in the Forms 10-Q and 10-K
| Item | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| 10-Q Q3 2026, derivatives | Mark to market gain on commodity and currency derivatives in operating income $543m in Q3 2026 (Q3 2025 loss $348m) and $1.10bn in 9M 2026 (9M 2025 loss $1.11bn), excluded from segment results. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, ERP | $1.2bn ERP program approved in Jul 2024; North America and Latin America went live in Q3 2026; remaining segments by the end of 2028. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, geopolitics | Russia 3.1% and Ukraine 0.3% of Q3 2026 net revenues; countries affected by the Middle East conflict about 1.0%; the Bahrain plant was affected and shipping diverted. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, tariffs | The US Supreme Court ruled IEEPA tariffs unlawful in Q1 2026; Mondelez paid about $20m under them and received about $14m of refunds by 30 Sep 2026; most Mexico and Canada imports are USMCA compliant. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, liquidity | Total debt $21.7bn; weighted average long term debt term 6.9 years; average daily commercial paper $2.3bn in 9M 2026; $2.9bn of the $4bn long term financing authorization unused. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, legal | Ploss wheat futures class action: on 30 Sep 2026 the court decertified the class and granted summary judgment on Commodity Exchange Act claims; claims of three plaintiffs remain; plaintiffs sought appellate review on 14 Oct 2026. |
| 10-K FY2025, margins | FY2025 adjusted gross margin 32.0%, (580) basis points, and adjusted operating margin 13.2%, (300) basis points, on record cocoa costs; pension buy out losses $282m (US, Jun 2025) and $54m (Canada, Sep 2025). |
| 10-K FY2025, intangibles | No goodwill impairment 2023 to 2025; five brand intangibles with fair value less than 10% above carrying value, $1.5bn in total; intangible impairments $33m in FY2025 and $153m in FY2024. |
7 Peer Valuation & Sector Summary
- Sector: packaged snacks, chocolate and biscuits. MDLZ TTM revenue $39.9bn against PEP $98.2bn (beverages and convenient foods), KHC $24.9bn, GIS $18.3bn and HSY $12.26bn.
- Growth (year to date, periods differ): PEP +6.7% (36 weeks), HSY +6.6% (9M), MDLZ +4.9% (9M), KHC (0.3%) (H1), GIS (2.8%) (Q1 FY2027).
- Margins: operating margin HSY 20.8%, PEP 15.3%, MDLZ 13.7% incl. derivative gains (adjusted 12.6%, non GAAP); GIS and KHC report GAAP operating losses after impairments.
- Valuation: MDLZ 20.3x TTM GAAP net income and 2.58x EV/Sales against HSY 19.0x and 3.15x, PEP 17.5x and 2.36x; market values MDLZ $82.8bn, PEP $191.1bn, HSY $34.2bn at 2 Nov 2026 prices.
Table 7.1 Peer comparison, trailing twelve months (periods differ)
| Company | Revenue TTM ($bn) | Revenue growth (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) | Net margin (%) | FCF margin (%) | ROE (%) | Net cash ($bn) | Market value ($bn) | EV/Sales (x) | P/E TTM (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ | 39.9 | 4.9 | 34.3 | 13.7 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 15.3 | (20.1) | 83 | 2.6 | 20.3 |
| HSY | 12.3 | 6.6 | 41.9 | 20.8 | 14.6 | 17.3 | 36.8 | (4.4) | 34 | 3.2 | 19.0 |
| PEP | 98.2 | 6.7 | 54.2 | 15.3 | 11.1 | 10.7 | 48.9 | (40.7) | 191 | 2.4 | 17.5 |
| GIS | 18.3 | (2.8) | 33.6 | (1.1) | (4.9) | 8.5 | (12.0) | (13.2) | 19 | 1.7 | n/a |
| KHC | 24.9 | (0.3) | 33.4 | (12.8) | (13.6) | 15.3 | (9.4) | (16.6) | 29 | 1.9 | n/a |
MDLZ TTM to 30 Sep 2026, HSY TTM to 27 Sep 2026, PEP TTM to 5 Sep 2026, GIS TTM to 30 Aug 2026, KHC TTM to 27 Jun 2026 (Q3 2026 10-Q not filed by 2 Nov 2026). Revenue growth: year to date against the prior year period (MDLZ and HSY 9M, PEP 36 weeks, GIS Q1 FY2027, KHC H1 2026). Margins are GAAP; MDLZ includes $1.10bn of 9M 2026 derivative gains; GIS and KHC losses reflect impairments. P/E is market value over TTM GAAP net income. Prices are last trades of 2 Nov 2026 before the open.
8 Material Events & Contracts
- Eight Forms 8-K in twelve months: four earnings releases, two leadership filings (COO and CFO), the 364 day credit facility and the annual meeting results.
- Leadership: Luca Zaramella, CFO since 2018, became COO from 1 Feb 2026 and handed the CFO role to Amit Banati on 1 Jul 2026; Volker Kuhn has led Europe since Apr 2025.
- Acquisitions: agreement to acquire Undercover Snacks (quinoa crisps) announced with Q3 2026 results; terms not disclosed; on the call management described a majority stake, closing expected in early 2027, and bolt on targets with about $0.5bn to $1bn of sales. Evirth (China cakes and pastries) was acquired in Nov 2024 for $255m net of cash.
- Hershey: no Mondelez filing from Nov 2024 to Nov 2026 discusses a Hershey transaction; Hershey appears in the filings as a member of the performance peer group.
Table 8.1 Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
| Date | Items | Event |
|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | 5.02, 7.01, 9.01 | Luca Zaramella, CFO since 2018, named Chief Operating Officer from 1 Feb 2026 in addition to CFO; 2026 base salary $1.25m, target bonus 150%, target long term incentive $7.225m; search for a separate CFO opened (Ex 99.1). |
| 3 Feb 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q4 and FY2025 results (Ex 99.1): FY2025 net revenues $38.54bn, +5.8%; organic +4.3% from pricing +8.0 points and volume/mix (3.7) points; diluted EPS $1.89, (44.7%); adjusted EPS $2.92; free cash flow $3.2bn; FY2026 outlook given. |
| 18 Feb 2026 | 1.01, 1.02, 2.03, 9.01 | New $1.5bn 364 day senior unsecured revolving credit facility with JPMorgan Chase Bank as agent, terminating 17 Feb 2027 with a term out option to 17 Feb 2028; $500m accordion; minimum shareholders' equity covenant of $25.0bn excluding AOCI (Ex 10.1). |
| 28 Apr 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q1 2026 results (Ex 99.1): net revenues $10.08bn, +8.2%; organic +3.0% (pricing +3.5 points, volume/mix (0.5) points); diluted EPS $0.44; adjusted EPS $0.67, (14.9%) at constant currency; outlook reaffirmed. |
| 26 May 2026 | 5.07 | Annual meeting of 20 May 2026: ten directors elected, say on pay approved, PwC ratified; shareholder proposals on plastic packaging and an independent chair not approved. |
| 18 Jun 2026 | 5.02 | Amit Banati, former CFO of Kenvue and Kellanova, named EVP and CFO from 1 Jul 2026; base salary $1.05m, target bonus 125%, annual equity target $5.0m, cash make whole award up to $7.0m; Zaramella remains EVP and COO (Ex 99.1). |
| 28 Jul 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q2 2026 results (Ex 99.1): net revenues $9.36bn, +4.1%; organic +2.2% (volume/mix +0.7 points, pricing +1.5 points); diluted EPS $1.20; adjusted EPS $0.73; quarterly dividend raised 4% to $0.52; FY2026 organic outlook raised to at least 2%. |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q3 2026 results (Ex 99.1): net revenues $9.97bn, +2.3%; organic +2.1% (volume/mix +1.8 points, pricing +0.3 points); diluted EPS $1.02; adjusted EPS $0.78, +5.5% at constant currency; agreement to acquire Undercover Snacks; FY2026 outlook reaffirmed. |
Table 8.2 Material contracts and financing arrangements
| Contract | Terms |
|---|---|
| 364 day revolving credit agreement (Ex 10.1, Feb 2026) | $1.5bn senior unsecured, JPMorgan Chase Bank as agent, terminating 17 Feb 2027, term out option to 17 Feb 2028, $500m accordion; minimum shareholders' equity $25.0bn excluding AOCI; backs commercial paper. |
| Debt | Total debt $21.74bn at 30 Sep 2026: short term borrowings $3.65bn, current long term debt $1.74bn, long term debt $16.35bn; $4bn long term financing authorization of Dec 2025 with $2.9bn unused. |
| Share repurchase program | $9.0bn authorization effective 1 Jan 2025 to 31 Dec 2027; about $5.8bn remaining at 30 Sep 2026. |
| ERP program | $1.2bn program approved Jul 2024; ERP costs $174m in 9M 2026; completion by the end of 2028. |
| CFO appointment (Jun 2026) | Base salary $1.05m, target bonus 125%, annual equity target $5.0m, cash make whole award up to $7.0m. |
| Kraft Foods Group separation agreement (2012) | Mondelez expects to bear any payments in the Ploss wheat futures class action under this agreement. |
9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting
- One class of common stock, one vote per share, no controlling holder. Vanguard Capital Management reported 96.5m shares (7.52%) at 31 Mar 2026; BlackRock 99.1m (7.7%, as cited in the 2026 proxy from a Feb 2024 filing); Capital Research Global Investors 68.4m (5.3%). Shares outstanding 1.27bn at 26 Oct 2026.
- 2026 annual meeting (20 May 2026, virtual): 89.3% of shares represented; all ten directors elected, Dirk Van de Put with 95.3% of votes cast; say on pay 95.8%; PwC ratified with 94.8%; independent chair proposal 31.2%, plastic packaging report 1.6%.
- Insiders, 12 months to Oct 2026: no open market purchases; open market sales about $8.75m. CEO Dirk Van de Put exercised options at $42.11 and sold 133,580 shares at $64.08 (about $8.56m) in Aug 2026 under a trading plan; other filings are annual awards, tax withholding and director grants.
Table 9.1 Annual meeting vote results, 20 May 2026
| Proposal | For (bn votes) | Against (bn votes) | Abstain (bn votes) | For as % of votes cast | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elect Ertharin Cousin | 1.030 | 0.006 | 0.003 | 99.4 | Elected |
| Elect Cees 't Hart | 1.029 | 0.008 | 0.002 | 99.3 | Elected |
| Elect Nancy McKinstry | 1.031 | 0.005 | 0.003 | 99.6 | Elected |
| Elect Brian J. McNamara | 1.028 | 0.009 | 0.002 | 99.2 | Elected |
| Elect Jorge S. Mesquita | 1.012 | 0.024 | 0.002 | 97.7 | Elected |
| Elect Jane Hamilton Nielsen | 1.024 | 0.012 | 0.003 | 98.8 | Elected |
| Elect Paula A. Price | 1.027 | 0.010 | 0.002 | 99.0 | Elected |
| Elect Patrick T. Siewert | 1.004 | 0.032 | 0.002 | 96.9 | Elected |
| Elect Michael A. Todman | 1.022 | 0.014 | 0.003 | 98.6 | Elected |
| Elect Dirk Van de Put | 0.988 | 0.048 | 0.002 | 95.3 | Elected |
| Advisory vote on executive compensation | 0.990 | 0.043 | 0.005 | 95.8 | Approved |
| Ratify PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as auditor for FY2026 | 1.084 | 0.059 | 0.003 | 94.8 | Ratified |
| Shareholder: report on plastic packaging policies | 0.017 | 1.010 | 0.013 | 1.6 | Not approved |
| Shareholder: independent board chair policy | 0.322 | 0.710 | 0.008 | 31.2 | Not approved |
Broker non votes 107.2m on each item except the auditor ratification. Percentages are of votes for plus against.
2026 annual meeting
- Virtual meeting of 20 May 2026; 1.15bn shares represented; the company posted a replay and filed vote results only, so no management remarks are summarized here.
- Lowest director support: Dirk Van de Put, Chair and CEO, 48.2m votes against; Patrick T. Siewert 32.2m against.
Table 9.2 Holders of 5% or more, latest Schedule 13G filings
| Holder | Shares (m) | % of class | As of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | 96.5 | 7.52 | 31 Mar 2026 | Schedule 13G |
| BlackRock | 99.1 | 7.7 | 31 Dec 2023 | Schedule 13G/A, as cited in the 2026 proxy |
| Capital Research Global Investors | 68.4 | 5.3 | 31 Mar 2026 | Schedule 13G |
| Capital International Investors | 51.9 | 4.0 | 31 Mar 2026 | Schedule 13G/A |
The Vanguard Group reported 133.9m shares (10.35%) in Feb 2025 and 0 shares in a Schedule 13G/A of 27 Mar 2026 after an internal realignment. Directors and executive officers (18 persons) held 5.35m shares, under 1%, at 11 Mar 2026.
10 Risk Factors
- Item 1A of the FY2025 Form 10-K holds 24 risk factors in four groups, as in FY2024 (11,531 words against 12,078); none added or removed, six materially reworded. All three 2026 Forms 10-Q report no material changes.
Table 10.1 Risk factors and legal matters with filed figures
| Risk | Disclosure and change |
|---|---|
| Cocoa and commodity costs | Commodity risk is listed first (cocoa, dairy, wheat, edible oils, sugar, nuts); FY2025 adjusted gross margin fell 580 basis points on cocoa; commodity value at risk $32m at FY2025, high of $104m during 2025. |
| Derivative mark to market volatility | Reported operating income includes unrealized derivative results: FY2025 loss $1.34bn, 9M 2026 gain $1.10bn. |
| Geopolitics | Russia 3.1% and Ukraine 0.3% of Q3 2026 revenue; Middle East countries about 1.0%; incremental geopolitical costs $40m in 9M 2026. |
| Tariffs and trade | FY2025 10-K states higher US tariffs have raised costs of finished products, ingredients and packaging; outlook excludes tariff changes to USMCA compliant trade. |
| Consumer and policy | Reworded factor adds uncertainty over SNAP and other subsidies, boycotts, statements by officials on ingredients and processing, and nutrition based taxes. |
| Currency and inflationary economies | Highly inflationary accounting for Argentina, Turkiye, Egypt and Nigeria; organic growth excludes Argentina pricing above 26% a year. |
| Intangible assets | Goodwill $24.0bn and intangibles $19.3bn at 30 Sep 2026; five brands with fair value less than 10% above carrying value ($1.5bn); intangible impairments $64m in 9M 2026. |
| Leverage and covenant | Total debt $21.7bn; debt to capitalization 0.45; the 364 day revolver requires shareholders' equity of at least $25.0bn excluding AOCI. |
How risk factors changed
- Comparison: 10-K FY2025 filed 4 Feb 2026 acc 0001628280-26-005345 against 10-K FY2024 filed 5 Feb 2025 acc 0001103982-25-000030.
- AI is named 10 times in 7 risk factors in the FY2025 10-K against 5 times in 5 factors a year earlier, now covering IP infringement claims and compliance costs.
- The EU Deforestation Regulation and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive are named in the laws and regulations factor; deforestation appears in 4 factors against 2.
- Tariff language moves from a dated Feb 2025 announcement to a statement that higher US tariffs have already raised Mondelez costs; the word tariff appears 19 times in 7 factors in both years.
- References to the Middle East fall from 5 factors to 2 and to Ukraine from 4 factors to 2; the Ukraine war factor itself is shortened from 696 to 578 words.
- Item 1A shrinks by 547 words (4.5%) to 11,531 words with the same 24 factors in the same four groups.
Table 10.2 Size of the risk factor section
| Measure | 10-K FY2024 | 10-K FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Risk factors (count) | 24 | 24 |
| Words in Item 1A | 12,078 | 11,531 |
Table 10.3 Risk factors added, removed and materially reworded
| Change | Risk factor | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| Reworded | Trade policy, tariffs and import/export rules | Replaces the 1 Feb 2025 example of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China with a statement that, as of Jan 2026, higher US tariffs have raised costs of finished products, ingredients and packaging and drawn retaliatory measures. |
| Reworded | Changing consumer preferences and demand | Adds uncertainty over government subsidies such as SNAP, public boycotts, statements by public officials on processing methods, ingredients and additives, and nutrition based taxes; text grows from 613 to 718 words. |
| Reworded | Cybersecurity risks from IT and third party providers | Heading changes 'cybersecurity breaches' to 'cybersecurity risks'; adds that attacks may not be detected immediately and that forensic work may delay complete disclosure, and drops the GDPR penalty example of up to 4% of global revenue. |
| Reworded | Climate and weather patterns: physical and transition risks | Heading changes from 'Climate change might adversely impact our supply chain' to a heading on changes in weather patterns that expose the company to physical and transition risks; drops the IPCC reference and states lower crop productivity has already limited commodity availability and raised costs. |
| Reworded | Protecting intellectual property rights | Adds that use of AI and machine learning may raise the risk of third party infringement claims and adds enforcement in digital environments. |
| Reworded | Tax law changes and disputes | Adds the One Big Beautiful Bill Act enacted 4 Jul 2025 and the OECD 'side by side' rule approved 5 Jan 2026 that would exempt US parented groups from parts of the global minimum tax; text grows from 354 to 469 words. |
Table 10.4 Risk factor updates in quarterly reports since the annual filing
| Filing | Change disclosed |
|---|---|
| 10-Q Q1 2026 filed 28 Apr 2026 | No material changes to the risk factors in the FY2025 10-K. |
| 10-Q Q2 2026 filed 28 Jul 2026 | No material changes to the risk factors in the FY2025 10-K. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026 filed 29 Oct 2026 | No material changes to the risk factors in the FY2025 10-K. |
11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity
- MDLZ traded at $65.40 on 2 Nov 2026 before the open, +21.5% since the Dec 2025 close of $53.83 and 1.9% below the 52 week high of $66.65; market value $82.8bn; dividend yield 3.2%.
- Valuation: 20.3x TTM GAAP net income, which includes derivative gains, and 22.6x TTM adjusted EPS of $2.90 (non GAAP); free cash flow yield 4.4% on TTM free cash flow of $3.66bn.
- Scenario model: revenue grows from TTM Q3 2026 $39.9bn for three years; operating margin on an adjusted basis with no derivative marks; net other expense held at the TTM level of $150m; 25% tax rate (company assumption: mid 20s); share count lower from buybacks; price equals TTM Q3 2029 EPS times exit P/E.
Critical factors and core assumptions
Table 11.1 Critical factors behind the best case
| Factor | Current value | Best case requires | Evidence in filings and calls |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cocoa cost | 9M 2026 cocoa costs below 2025; input costs added $329m to Q3 2026 adjusted operating income | Cocoa stays at or below 2026 levels through 2028 despite the 2026/27 deficit cited by management | 10-Q Q3 2026 MD&A; Q3 2026 call |
| Adjusted gross margin | 34.2% in Q3 2026; 32.0% in FY2025; 37.8% in FY2024 | Return to about 37% to 38% | 8-K Ex 99.1 non GAAP tables |
| Europe pricing and volume | Q3 2026 organic (2.1%), pricing (3.7) points, volume/mix +1.6 points; Europe 39% of FY2025 revenue | Pricing flat to positive in 2027 with volume/mix gains held | 8-K Ex 99.1; Q3 2026 call |
| Emerging markets growth | Organic +4.1% in Q3 2026; 40.9% of Q3 2026 revenue | Organic growth of 6% or more from distribution gains in India, China and Brazil | 8-K Ex 99.1; Q3 2026 call |
| North America volume | Q3 2026 volume/mix 0.0 points, organic +1.6%; segment margin 15.7% | Positive volume/mix and segment margin back toward FY2024 22.8% | Segment note, 10-Q and 10-K |
| Capital return and leverage | Net debt $20.1bn; $5.8bn of buyback authorization to Dec 2027; dividend $2.08 a year | Free cash flow of $3bn or more a year funds about $2bn of buybacks without higher leverage | 10-Q Q3 2026 liquidity section |
- Revenue base TTM Q3 2026 $39.9bn; adjusted operating income $5.03bn (12.6% margin, non GAAP); reported $5.46bn (13.7%) incl. derivative gains.
- Best case: 5.5% revenue CAGR, 16.5% operating margin, 22x P/E, share count (6%): volume led organic growth near 4%, emerging markets above 6%, cocoa near 2026 levels lifting adjusted gross margin toward 37.8%.
- Base case: 3.5% revenue CAGR, 15.0% margin, 19x P/E, share count (4%): organic growth about 3%, Europe pricing stabilizes after 2026, partial margin recovery.
- Worst case: 1.5% revenue CAGR, 12.0% margin, 15x P/E, share count (2%): a second cocoa cost increase from the 2026/27 deficit, lower volumes in Europe and North America, tariff and Russia exposure.
- Tax rate 25%, net interest and other items at the TTM level, no derivative marks, no large acquisitions; dividends ($0.52 per quarter) excluded from returns.
Scenarios, three years forward
Table 11.2 Scenario analysis, TTM Q3 2026 to TTM Q3 2029
| Measure | Worst case | Base case | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%) | 1.5 | 3.5 | 5.5 |
| Revenue, TTM Q3 2029 ($bn) | 41.7 | 44.2 | 46.8 |
| Operating margin, TTM Q3 2029 (%) | 12.0 | 15.0 | 16.5 |
| Net income, TTM Q3 2029 ($bn) | 3.6 | 4.9 | 5.7 |
| EPS, TTM Q3 2029 ($) | 2.94 | 4.00 | 4.78 |
| Exit P/E (x) | 15.0 | 19.0 | 22.0 |
| Implied price ($) | 44 | 76 | 105 |
| Change against $65.40 (%) | (33) | 16 | 61 |
| Implied annual return (%) | (12.3) | 5.2 | 17.1 |
Margins are on an adjusted basis, a company non GAAP measure; reported margins add or subtract derivative marks. Implied annual return excludes dividends.
Sensitivity analysis
Table 11.3 Sensitivity of implied price to revenue CAGR and operating margin at 19x P/E
| Revenue CAGR \ Operating margin | 12% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 17% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | $56 | $61 | $66 | $71 | $75 | $80 |
| 2% | $58 | $63 | $68 | $73 | $78 | $83 |
| 3% | $60 | $65 | $70 | $75 | $80 | $85 |
| 4% | $61 | $67 | $72 | $77 | $82 | $88 |
| 5% | $63 | $69 | $74 | $79 | $85 | $90 |
| 6% | $65 | $71 | $76 | $82 | $87 | $93 |
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $65.40. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below. The exit P/E table uses the base case revenue CAGR of 3.5%, shown rounded in its title.
Table 11.4 Sensitivity of implied price to exit P/E and operating margin at 4% revenue CAGR
| Exit P/E \ Operating margin | 12% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 17% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x | $48 | $52 | $56 | $60 | $64 | $68 |
| 17x | $54 | $59 | $63 | $68 | $73 | $77 |
| 19x | $60 | $66 | $71 | $76 | $81 | $86 |
| 21x | $67 | $73 | $78 | $84 | $90 | $96 |
| 23x | $73 | $80 | $86 | $92 | $98 | $105 |
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $65.40. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below. The exit P/E table uses the base case revenue CAGR of 3.5%, shown rounded in its title.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 2 November 2026.
Sources
All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Call statements are taken from the Q3 2026 and Q4 2025 earnings calls held by the company and its Q2 2026 prepared remarks.
Table A.1 Filings used, with accession numbers
| Form | Period | Filed | Accession number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | Q3 2026 | 29 Oct 2026 | 0001628280-26-068256 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q3 2026 | 29 Oct 2026 | 0001628280-26-068233 |
| 10-Q | Q2 2026 | 28 Jul 2026 | 0001628280-26-050179 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q2 2026 | 28 Jul 2026 | 0001628280-26-050157 |
| 8-K (5.02) Ex 99.1 | CFO appointment | 18 Jun 2026 | 0001628280-26-044384 |
| 8-K (5.07) | 2026 annual meeting | 26 May 2026 | 0001628280-26-038064 |
| 10-Q | Q1 2026 | 28 Apr 2026 | 0001628280-26-027937 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q1 2026 | 28 Apr 2026 | 0001628280-26-027915 |
| DEF 14A | 2026 proxy | 3 Apr 2026 | 0001628280-26-023640 |
| 8-K (1.01/2.03) | 364 day credit facility | 18 Feb 2026 | 0001628280-26-009018 |
| 10-K | FY2025 | 4 Feb 2026 | 0001628280-26-005345 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q4 2025 | 3 Feb 2026 | 0001628280-26-005016 |
| 8-K (5.02/7.01) | COO appointment | 30 Jan 2026 | 0001628280-26-004388 |
| 10-Q | Q3 2025 | 28 Oct 2025 | 0001628280-25-046773 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q3 2025 | 28 Oct 2025 | 0001628280-25-046750 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q2 2025 | 29 Jul 2025 | 0001103982-25-000187 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q1 2025 | 29 Apr 2025 | 0001103982-25-000126 |
| 10-K | FY2024 | 5 Feb 2025 | 0001103982-25-000030 |
| 10-K | FY2023 | 2 Feb 2024 | 0001103982-24-000019 |
| 10-K | FY2022 | 3 Feb 2023 | 0001103982-23-000006 |
Table A.2 Peer and sector filings used
| Company | Form | Filed | Accession number |
|---|---|---|---|
| Campbell's | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 3 Sep 2026 | 0000016732-26-000020 |
| Coca-Cola | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 27 Oct 2026 | 0001628280-26-067403 |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA | 6-K | 26 Oct 2026 | 0001292814-26-005006 |
| General Mills | 10-K FY2026 | 1 Jul 2026 | 0001628280-26-046466 |
| General Mills | 10-Q Q1 FY2027 | 23 Sep 2026 | 0001628280-26-063201 |
| Hershey | 10-K FY2025 | 17 Feb 2026 | 0001628280-26-008586 |
| Hershey | 10-Q, period to 27 Sep 2026 | 29 Oct 2026 | 0001628280-26-068136 |
| Hershey | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 29 Oct 2026 | 0001628280-26-068046 |
| J.M. Smucker | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 26 Aug 2026 | 0000091419-26-000079 |
| Kraft Heinz | 10-K FY2025 | 12 Feb 2026 | 0001637459-26-000009 |
| Kraft Heinz | 10-Q Q2 2026 | 5 Aug 2026 | 0001637459-26-000054 |
| PepsiCo | 10-K FY2025 | 2 Feb 2026 | 0000077476-26-000007 |
| PepsiCo | 10-Q, period to 5 Sep 2026 | 7 Oct 2026 | 0000077476-26-000048 |
| PepsiCo | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 7 Oct 2026 | 0000077476-26-000050 |
| Tootsie Roll Industries | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 22 Oct 2026 | 0001104659-26-118027 |
| Utz Brands | 8-K Ex 99.1 | 5 Aug 2026 | 0001628280-26-052888 |
Table B.1 Exhibits to Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
| Filed | Exhibit | Document | Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2026 | EX-99.1 | Luca Zaramella named COO and CFO; CFO search opened | Zaramella, CFO since 2018, appointed EVP, Chief Operating Officer and CFO effective 1 Feb 2026; As COO he takes the four regions plus corporate sales, marketing and supply chain |
| 3 Feb 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q4 and FY2025 results; FY2026 outlook | FY2025 net revenues $38.5bn (+5.8%); organic +4.3% with pricing +8.0 points and volume/mix (3.7) points; FY2025 adjusted gross margin 32.0%, (580) bp on higher raw material costs; reported gross margin 28.4% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | EX-10.1 | $1.5bn 364 day revolving credit agreement | New $1.5bn senior unsecured 364 day revolver with JPMorgan Chase Bank as agent, terminating 17 Feb 2027; Replaces the $1.5bn 364 day facility dated 19 Feb 2025 |
| 28 Apr 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q1 2026 results | Net revenues $10.08bn (+8.2%); organic +3.0% with pricing +3.5 points and volume/mix (0.5) points; Emerging markets organic +6.3%; developed markets +0.8%; AMEA organic +11.3% |
| 18 Jun 2026 | EX-99.1 | Amit Banati named EVP and CFO | Banati, formerly CFO of Kenvue and of Kellanova, becomes CFO effective 1 Jul 2026; Zaramella stays COO, focused on the four regions, sales, marketing and supply chain |
| 28 Jul 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q2 2026 results; organic outlook raised; dividend +4% | Net revenues $9.36bn (+4.1%); organic +2.2% with volume/mix +0.7 points and pricing +1.5 points; North America organic +3.4%; Europe organic (3.5%) with pricing (1.4) points |
| 29 Oct 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q3 2026 results; Undercover Snacks deal | Net revenues $9.97bn (+2.3%); organic +2.1% with volume/mix +1.8 points and pricing +0.3 points; Adjusted gross margin 34.2% (+380 bp) on lower raw material costs; adjusted operating income $1.38bn (+17.0% constant currency) |
