Coinbase Global (COIN), Financial Analysis

1 Revenue & Business Model

• Storyline: revenue follows crypto trading activity, while the mix moves toward stablecoins and services. Transaction revenue was 50.9% of Q3 2026 net revenue against 59.4% in Q3 2025; subscription and services rose to 49.1% from 40.6%. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three revenue drivers: trading, stablecoins and USDC, and staking, lending and subscriptions.
• Business: Coinbase runs four exchanges (Coinbase Exchange, Coinbase International Exchange, Coinbase Derivatives Exchange and Deribit), a consumer app and custody. It reports one segment and three revenue types: transaction revenue (consumer, institutional, other), subscription and services (stablecoin revenue, blockchain rewards, interest and finance fee income, other) and other revenue (corporate interest and other income).
• FY2025 revenue $7.18bn, +9.4%: transaction $4.06bn (56.5%), subscription and services $2.83bn (39.4%), other $297.9m. Revenue peaked at $7.84bn in FY2021 and fell to $3.19bn in FY2022; TTM Q3 2026 $5.63bn, (26.6%).
• Regions: United States $6.01bn of FY2025 revenue (84%), international $1.17bn; Q3 2026 United States $1.02bn, international $199.5m.
• Employees 4,204 at 30 Sep 2026, against 4,795 a year earlier and 4,988 at 31 Mar 2026.
• Bases: annual revenue by type is shown as filed in each Form 10-K. From Q1 2026 Coinbase moved revenue on corporate USDC balances from subscription and services (stablecoin revenue) into other revenue and recast the 2025 quarters; the FY2025 Form 10-K was not recast. Quarterly series in this report use the recast basis.

2 Trading: Spot Volumes Fall, Derivatives and Prediction Markets Grow

• Transaction revenue $590.2m in Q3 2026, (43.6%), 50.9% of net revenue. Consumer $450.1m, (46.6%); institutional $91.7m, (32.1%); other $48.5m.
• Volumes: consumer spot $23.4bn, (59.2%); institutional spot $111.1bn, (53.1%); crypto derivatives $963.0bn, +14.1%; Coinbase Total Trading Volume $1.21tn, (2.8%).
• Market share 10.7% of total crypto trading volume, the fourth quarterly gain in a row, against 5.6% in Q3 2025; crypto derivatives volume TTM $4.34tn against $3.24tn a year earlier.
• Prediction markets, launched in the US with initial market flow from Kalshi (Q4 2025 letter), passed $200m of annualized revenue in Q3 2026 with 82% quarterly compound growth; with derivatives they were about 25% of transaction revenue (Q3 2026 call).
• Derivatives venues: Deribit (closed Aug 2025) and Coinbase International Exchange were combined into one exchange in Oct 2026; the advanced trading platform relaunches as Coinbase Pro in Q4 2026 with spot, futures, perpetuals, options and equities.

How crypto trading is changing

• Q3 2026 market data quoted by Coinbase: total market crypto spot volume (6%) and derivatives volume (11%) on Q2, crypto volatility (15%) to multi year lows, while total crypto market capitalization rose 37%; total market crypto trading volume about $11tn in the quarter (8-K Ex 99.1).
• Regulated futures diverge: CME Bitcoin futures and options average daily volume 103k contracts, +21%, Ether 72k, (70%); CME average daily volume across all products a Q3 record of 29.4m contracts, +16% (CME 10-Q).
• Retail crypto trading fell at other platforms: Robinhood cryptocurrencies revenue $120m, (55.2%), with users placing crypto trades (37%); Gemini trading volume $3.8bn in Q2 2026 against $11.3bn; Bullish digital asset sales $32.6bn against $58.6bn.
• Prediction markets become a trading line: Robinhood event contracts revenue $173m in Q3 2026 against $27m; Coinbase above $200m annualized; Gemini prediction markets revenue $0.5m in Q2 2026.

3 Stablecoins & USDC: Record Balances, Lower Rates

• Stablecoin revenue $306.9m in Q3 2026, (5.4%), 26.4% of net revenue; the 10-Q attributes +$84.6m to higher USDC balances and ($52.8m) to lower rates.
• Average USDC held in Coinbase products $22bn, +49% (deck), about 30% of average USDC market capitalization of $73bn, against $68bn a year earlier.
• Where the revenue comes from (deck): USDC in Coinbase products $202m against $159m, of which corporate balances $21m against $30m, now in other revenue; off platform USDC $126m against $196m. Other revenue $55.1m, (47.9%).
• USDC rewards paid to customers $129.2m (+16%), in sales and marketing, equal to 42.1% of stablecoin revenue.
• Circle arrangement renewed on the same terms in 2026; Coinbase says it captured about 50% of USDC economics over the past year. Payment stablecoins of $2.42bn sit in cash and cash equivalents.

How stablecoins are changing

• Market size: stablecoin market capitalization $304bn at the end of Q3 2026; Coinbase cites the US Treasury Secretary's Nov 2025 remarks expecting $3tn by 2030 (8-K Ex 99.1).
• USDC growth slows with rates: USDC in circulation $73.3bn at 30 Jun 2026, +19%; Circle reserve return rate 3.5%, 66bps lower; USDC 27% of the stablecoin market (Circle 8-K Ex 99.1). The fed funds rate fell from 5.33% at end 2023 to 3.64% at end 2025 (Coinbase 10-K).
• Regulation: the GENIUS Act on payment stablecoins became US law in Jul 2025 and appears in the FY2025 risk factors.
• Payments by software agents: Circle reports 99.3% of x402 agent payment volume settles in USDC and Circle Payments Network at $14.7bn of annualized volume, +76% on Q1; Coinbase reported over 90% of onchain agentic commerce in USDC on Base and over 100m x402 payments (Q1 2026 deck).

4 Staking, Lending & Subscriptions: Price Driven Rewards, Growing Loans

• Subscription and services $570.2m in Q3 2026, (20.4%), 49.1% of net revenue against 40.6%; the non stablecoin lines below total $263.3m against $392.1m.
• Blockchain rewards $85.7m, (53.6%): ($111.8m) from lower Solana and Ethereum prices and ($18.9m) from lower reward rates, partly offset by higher staked balances (10-Q).
• Interest and finance fee income $68.6m, +5.9%; average Borrow/Lend balances $1.87bn against $610m a year earlier.
• Other subscription and services $109.0m, (23.6%), incl. Coinbase One; paid Coinbase One subscribers reached an all time high, +24% (no count disclosed; nearly 1m in the Q4 2025 letter).
• Assets on platform $376.6bn at 30 Sep 2026, (27.0%), 12.5% of total crypto market capitalization; Bitcoin $252.5bn of it. Coinbase is custodian for over 80% of US Bitcoin and Ether ETF assets (Q4 2025 letter).

How staking, lending and subscriptions are changing

• Staking income follows token prices: Coinbase blockchain rewards ($111.8m) from lower prices and ($18.9m) from lower reward rates year on year; Galaxy assets under stake $4.6bn, +64% on Q2 2026, with a multi year agreement to support staking on the BNY custody platform; Gemini staking revenue $4.0m, +50% (Q2 2026).
• Crypto lending grows: Coinbase average Borrow/Lend balances $1.87bn against $610m; Galaxy average loan book $1.8bn, +27% on Q2 2026.
• Subscriptions spread across retail platforms: paid Coinbase One subscribers +24%; Robinhood Gold subscribers 5.18m, +34%, with Gold subscription revenue $62m, +31.9%.
• Services grow at newer venues: Bullish subscription, services and other revenue $62.7m, +90.6% (Q2 2026, derived); Circle other revenue $34m, +41%, with FY2026 guidance raised to $310m to $330m.

5 Financial Analysis & Ratios

• Operating margin fell with trading revenue: FY2024 35.1%, FY2025 20.0%, TTM Q3 2026 3.6%; Q3 2026 5.1% against 25.7% in Q3 2025.
• Net income TTM ($701.6m) includes net losses of $695.1m on crypto assets held for investment over the four quarters; Adjusted EBITDA TTM $1.41bn (non GAAP).
• Cash flow: operating cash flow TTM $1.41bn; free cash flow $1.30bn after a capex stand in of $109.3m. Operating cash flow excludes customer custodial fund flows, which sit in financing, and includes swings in loans and crypto working capital.
• Balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026: cash and investments $8.82bn, incl. $2.42bn of payment stablecoins; crypto held for investment $2.22bn at fair value (cost $1.86bn); debt $6.70bn, incl. $748.8m of short term crypto borrowings; goodwill $4.13bn, mainly Deribit; customer custodial funds of $4.46bn sit on both sides.
• Capital returns: buybacks $790.2m in FY2025 and $1.25bn in 9M 2026 (7.1m shares); about $1.96bn of the $4.0bn authorization left at 30 Sep 2026; the $1.27bn 2026 convertible notes were repaid on 1 Jun 2026; no dividend.

Cost structure and profitability

• Total operating expenses $1.15bn in Q3 2026, (16.9%), against revenue (35.0%); operating income $61.7m against $480.5m.
• Technology and development $447.4m, 36.8% of revenue against 23.0% a year earlier and $525.6m in Q1 2026, before the May 2026 restructuring of about 700 roles ($47.8m of charges in 9M 2026).
• Sales and marketing $242.6m, incl. USDC rewards of $129.2m (+16%); general and administrative $318.9m, (23.8%).
• Transaction expense $194.5m, 16.8% of net revenue, incl. $45.0m of other transaction expense, mainly prediction market exchange fees (+369%).
• Stock based compensation $233.0m, 19.2% of revenue; Adjusted EBITDA $332.9m excludes it together with depreciation, restructuring and data theft incident items.
• Crypto marks explain the gap between operating income and net income: gains (losses) on crypto assets held for investment of $715.0m in Q3 2026, $(718.2)m in Q4 2025; 9M 2026 operating loss ($73.2m) against a net loss of ($34.9m).

6 MD&A & Management Commentary

Q3 2026 shareholder letter, Form 10-Q and earnings call

• Q3 2026 (29 Oct 2026): total revenue $1.22bn, (35.0%) year on year and (0.4%) on Q2; net revenue $1.16bn; net income $718.7m, diluted EPS $2.51; Adjusted EBITDA $332.9m, (58.4%); effective tax rate 12.8%, incl. a valuation allowance release and the closing of the 2020 to 2021 federal audit.
• Transaction revenue $590.2m: consumer $450.1m, (46.6%), with consumer spot volume (59%) and institutional spot volume (53%); institutional $91.7m, (32.1%). Monthly Transacting Users 7.4m against 9.3m.
• Subscription and services $570.2m, (20.4%): stablecoin revenue $306.9m; blockchain rewards $85.7m, (53.6%), on lower Solana and Ethereum prices and reward rates (10-Q).
• Expenses: Adjusted Expenses $975m, below the $980m to $1.08bn outlook; general and administrative $318.9m, (24%), on lower professional services and customer support; transaction expense 16.8% of net revenue, incl. $45.0m of other transaction expense, mainly prediction market exchange fees.
• Call (29 Oct 2026): prediction markets passed $200m of annualized revenue; with derivatives they made up about 25% of transaction revenue. The INTX and Deribit integration was completed in Oct 2026 and management expects near term volume volatility; the advanced trading platform relaunches as Coinbase Pro in Q4 2026.
• Crypto portfolio: Bitcoin units held +92% year on year (deck); 17,954 BTC and 152,649 ETH at 30 Sep 2026; portfolio $2.22bn at fair value.
• Q2 2026 (30 Jul 2026): total revenue $1.22bn, (18.5%); net loss ($359.5m); market share a then record 10.3%; prediction markets above $100m of annualized revenue; cash and cash equivalents $8.6bn after repaying the 2026 convertible notes.

Management and CFO commentary

• CFO Alesia Haas, Q3 2026 letter outlook (29 Oct 2026): FY2026 Adjusted Expenses cut again to $4.15bn to $4.30bn, about $100m lower at the midpoint; Q4 subscription and services $550m to $630m on higher average rates and crypto prices.
• CFO, Q3 2026 letter: cash and cash equivalents $8.6bn and $11bn of available resources incl. $2.4bn of crypto and marketable investments; $2.0bn of buyback authorization left; 10.2m Class A shares repurchased under the program.
• CFO, Q2 2026 letter (30 Jul 2026): cost base about $600m below the 2025 annualized exit rate; Q3 drivers named as higher USDC balances, offset by the roll off of Q2 performance earn outs and lower crypto prices.
• CFO, Q1 2026 call (7 May 2026): Coinbase intended to retire the $1.3bn 2026 convertible notes; buybacks since Q4 2024 offset about 90% of stock compensation issuance.
• Q4 2025 letter (12 Feb 2026): Q4 net loss after a $718m loss on the crypto investment portfolio, largely unrealized, and a $395m loss on strategic investments incl. Circle shares; FY2025 tax rate 17%.
• Management, Q1 2026 deck: pull requests per engineer +78% year on year; teams of ten replaced by two to three people plus AI agents; the May 2026 restructuring was described as optimizing operations for the AI era.
• Management, Q3 2026 deck: assets on platform back to 12.5% of crypto market capitalization; prediction market daily traders up more than 60% on Q2; Coinbase Developer Platform payments volume 160% quarterly compound growth.

7 Sector & Competitor Analysis

• Sector: digital asset market infrastructure (crypto exchanges, custody, stablecoins and derivatives) plus regulated exchanges and retail brokers adding crypto and event contracts. The peer set is Robinhood, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange and Circle.
• Growth: COIN TTM revenue (26.6%) and Q3 2026 (35.0%), against HOOD TTM +20.9%, ICE 9M 2026 +14.8%, CRCL H1 2026 +12.8% and CME 9M 2026 +9.3%.
• Operating margin: CME 66.8% (9M 2026), HOOD 45.7% (TTM), CRCL 5.7% (H1 2026), COIN 3.6% (TTM); COIN gross margin, total revenue less transaction expense, 85.8%.
• Valuation: COIN 6.4x EV/Sales TTM and a TTM net loss, so no P/E; HOOD 14.7x EV/Sales and 39.4x P/E. Market value COIN $38.0bn, HOOD $76.9bn, CRCL $18.5bn.
• Coinbase and Circle share USDC economics: Circle paid distribution, transaction and other costs of $819.3m in H1 2026, mostly to distribution partners with Coinbase the largest; Coinbase says it captured about 50% of USDC economics over the past year.

8 Material Events & Contracts

• 12 Forms 8-K from 31 Oct 2025 to 31 Oct 2026: four results filings with shareholder letters (Ex 99.1), five officer and director notices (two with advisor agreements, Ex 10.1), the May 2026 restructuring, the annual meeting results and the Texas reincorporation with ten exhibits.
• No notes offering or acquisition 8-K in the window. Deribit closed on 14 Aug 2025 and Echo on 8 Oct 2025 (10-K FY2025); the Dec 2025 indentures only move the convertible notes to the Texas company, and Ex 5.3 covers resale of the 10,997,856 Class A shares issued for Deribit.

9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

• Two voting classes: Class B carries 20 votes per share and, on the 22 Oct 2026 share counts, 78.6% of total votes with 15.5% of shares. Brian Armstrong reported 33.1m shares, 13.9% of Class A as converted, in his last Schedule 13G/A (holding at 31 Dec 2024).
• 2026 annual meeting (16 Jun 2026, virtual), the first as a Texas corporation: all nine directors elected with 96.1% (Gokul Rajaram) to 99.9% (Christa Davies) of votes cast; Deloitte & Touche ratified with 99.98%. The ballot held no say on pay vote and no shareholder proposals.
• Insiders, Forms 4 of the last 12 months: no open market purchases. 88 Forms 3, 4 and 5 were filed. Open market sales came from Brian Armstrong (option exercises with same day sales under a trading plan, about 40,000 shares per tranche at $248 to $276 in Dec 2025 and Jan 2026), Marc Andreessen trusts (e.g. 13,676 shares at $186.18 on 1 Oct 2026), CFO Alesia Haas (39,030 shares at about $205 on 21 Sep 2026), Fred Ehrsam, Fred Wilson, Emilie Choi, Paul Grewal and Jennifer Jones; the other filings are RSU vesting and tax withholding.
• New trading plans (10-Q Q3 2026): Armstrong up to 8,167,446 Class A shares from option exercises, 16 Nov 2026 to 22 Oct 2027; Ehrsam up to 3,866,620 shares, 7 Dec 2026 to 7 Jun 2027; Choi up to 1,560,453 shares plus future vesting, 4 Jan 2027 to 31 Dec 2027. Coinbase repurchased 7.1m shares for $1.25bn in 9M 2026.

2026 annual meeting

• Virtual meeting of 16 Jun 2026 chaired by Brian Armstrong; record date 21 Apr 2026; two proposals, director election and auditor ratification.
• No business update was given at the meeting, and no shareholder questions were received in the Q&A session.
• Board changes: Paul Clement did not stand for reelection, leaving nine directors; Anthony Armstrong joined on 1 Sep 2026, taking the board to ten.

10 Risk Factors

• Scope of the comparison as filed: the first 9 risk factors of Item 1A in the Forms 10-K for FY2025 and FY2024, the group headed The Most Material Risks Related to Our Business and Financial Position. The rest of Item 1A was not compared, so the total number of factors and any factor added or removed outside this group are not stated here.
• Within the 9 factors: 4 materially reworded, 2 with minor wording changes (interest rates: payment stablecoins, such as USDC; competition: shorter heading) and 3 unchanged. The Forms 10-Q for Q1, Q2 and Q3 2026 each state no material change to the FY2025 risk factors.

How risk factors changed

• Comparison: first 9 risk factors of Item 1A in the 10-K FY2025 (filed 12 Feb 2026), the group headed The Most Material Risks Related to Our Business and Financial Position against the same group of 9 factors in the 10-K FY2024 (filed 13 Feb 2025); the remaining factors of Item 1A were not compared.
• Scope as filed: 9 of the factors in each 10-K; within them none added or removed, 4 materially reworded, 2 with minor wording changes and 3 unchanged.
• Stablecoin language widens from USDC to payment stablecoins across the opening factors, and the GENIUS Act (Jul 2025) enters the regulatory factor.
• The FY2025 text replaces cryptoeconomy with onchain economy in the part compared.
• The cybersecurity factor cites the May 2025 data theft incident in place of the 2021 account takeover case ($25.1m reimbursed).
• Event contracts (prediction markets) appear as a regulatory exposure, with state gambling law and CFTC preemption litigation named.
• Enforcement references from 2022 to 2023 (FTX, the June 2023 SEC complaint, NYDFS and FinCEN proposals) are removed from the regulatory factor.

11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

• COIN closed at $143.54 on 30 Oct 2026, (10.6%) on the 29 Oct close of $160.59 after the Q3 2026 release, 58.1% below the 52 week high of $342.80 and 4.9% above the low of $136.89.
• Valuation: market value $38.0bn; enterprise value $35.9bn; 6.4x EV/Sales TTM; 25.4x EV/Adjusted EBITDA TTM; no P/E as TTM net income was a loss of ($701.6m); free cash flow yield 3.4%; 2.7x book value.
• Scenario model: total revenue grows from TTM Q3 2026 $5.63bn for three years; operating margin as stated; no gains or losses on crypto or strategic investments; other income set to zero; 20% tax rate; price equals TTM Q3 2029 EPS times exit P/E.

Critical factors and core assumptions

• Revenue base TTM Q3 2026 $5.63bn; operating income $200.6m (3.6% margin); FY2025 operating margin 20.0%, FY2024 35.1%.
• Best case: 25% revenue CAGR as crypto activity recovers and derivatives, prediction markets and USDC keep growing; 30% operating margin; 35x P/E; share count unchanged.
• Base case: 12% revenue CAGR, which brings revenue back near the FY2025 level by the end of the period; 20% operating margin, the FY2025 level; 25x P/E; share count unchanged as buybacks offset stock compensation.
• Worst case: revenue (3%) a year in a long period of low crypto activity and lower rates; 5% operating margin, near the Q3 2026 level of 5.1%; 18x P/E; share count +2%.
• Tax rate 20%; no dividend; mix stays about half transaction and half subscription, services and other revenue.

Scenarios, three years forward

Sensitivity analysis

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 30 October 2026.

Sources

All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Call statements are taken from the Q3 2026 and Q1 2026 earnings calls held by the company.