November 1, 2026·45 min read

Intel (INTC), Financial Analysis

Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.

Net revenue Q3 2026
$16.5bn
+20.9% year on year (Q3 2025 $13.7bn)
Cost of sales and operating expenses Q3 2026
$14.0bn
+7.9% year on year (Q3 2025 $13.0bn)
Operating margin Q3 2026
15.3%
+10.3 pts year on year (Q3 2025 5.0%)
Key findings
  • Data center drives growth. Q3 2026 revenue $16.5bn, +20.9%; Data Center and AI (DCAI) $7.3bn, +77.8%, at a 41.5% operating margin against 23.4% a year earlier. Server prices rose 54% and units 10%; Intel expects substrate and memory shortages to persist into 2027 (10-Q).
  • PCs shrink. Client Computing and Physical AI (CCPG) revenue $8.1bn, (5.1%), with client units (14%) and prices +9%. Management expects PC units down about 12% in 2026 and 10% in 2027 (stated on the call); HP Personal Systems units fell 16% in its Jul 2026 quarter.
  • Foundry loss narrows, few outside customers. Intel Foundry revenue $6.7bn, +58.1%, mostly sales to Intel Products; operating loss ($1.85bn), a (27.7%) margin against (54.8%). External revenue $411m, mainly one non recurring contract; no external Intel 14A customer named.
  • Margins up, net income moved by the Escrowed Shares. Gross margin 43.0% and operating margin 15.3% against 38.2% and 5.0%. Net income $3.3bn incl. a $1.0bn Escrowed Shares gain; TTM net loss ($12.0bn) after a ($12.6bn) 9M 2026 Escrowed Shares loss and the $3.9bn Mobileye impairment.
  • Equity funds the build out. 9M 2026 gross capex $11.8bn, operating cash flow $13.2bn; $22.6bn net raised at $95 in Aug 2026 after the $14.2bn Fab 34 buyout. Shares 5.32bn against 4.33bn at Dec 2024, +22.7%; cash and short term investments $54.0bn, debt $50.1bn.
  • Q4 guidance lower; shares (28.6%) on 30 Oct 2026 to $65.76. Q4 2026 revenue $15.0bn to $16.0bn and non GAAP gross margin 38.0%, incl. about 200 basis points from the Kiryat Gat fab stoppage (stated on the call). 47.7x TTM non GAAP EPS; three year scenarios: base $37, best $105, worst $2.

Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2021 to FY2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 2025 to Q3 2026, the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the quarterly earnings releases (Ex 99.1), the Apr 2026 notes underwriting agreement, supplemental indenture, forms of notes and legal opinion (Ex 1.1, 4.1 to 4.6, 5.1), the Aug 2026 equity offering underwriting agreement, legal opinion and releases (Ex 1.1, 5.1, 99.1, 99.2), the resale registration opinion (Ex 5.1) and board releases (Ex 99.1), the Form 8-K Item 5.07 vote results, Schedules 13G and Forms 4 on the record for central index key 50863, and the filings of 12 other companies used in chapters 2 to 5. Intel files no CFO commentary exhibit: CFO commentary comes from the CFO statements and outlook in the earnings releases and from the Q4 2025 to Q3 2026 earnings calls; Q3 2026 call figures are labelled as stated on the call. Accession numbers for every filing used appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are the closing prices of 30 October 2026.

1 Revenue & Business Model

  • Storyline: revenue moves from PCs to data center CPUs while the foundry loss narrows and equity funds the factories. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three revenue drivers: Client PCs (CCPG), Data Center and AI (DCAI) and Intel Foundry.
  • Two reporting groups. Intel Products designs and sells CPUs and related chips through CCPG (named CCG until Q1 2026) and DCAI; Intel Foundry makes the wafers and packages, mostly for Intel Products, so its revenue is largely eliminated in consolidation (FY2025: $17.5bn of $17.8bn intersegment). All Other holds Mobileye and IMS, and Altera until its deconsolidation on 12 Sep 2025.
  • FY2025 segments: CCPG $32.2bn revenue with a 28.9% operating margin; DCAI $16.9bn, 20.2%; Intel Foundry $17.8bn with an operating loss of ($10.3bn); corporate unallocated expense ($5.5bn).
  • Revenue FY2021 $79.0bn to FY2025 $52.9bn, a (9.6%) CAGR; TTM Q3 2026 $59.9bn; 9M 2026 $46.2bn, +18.0%.
  • Regions FY2025 (billing location): United States $15.8bn (29.8%), China incl. Hong Kong $12.7bn (24.0%), Singapore $9.5bn, Taiwan $7.7bn, other $7.2bn. Three largest customers 43% of FY2025 revenue.
  • Headcount 81.1k at Sep 2026 against 108.9k at Dec 2024, (25.5%).
Figure 1.1 Revenue and operating margin, FY2021 to TTM Q3 2026
Figure 1.2 Revenue by region (billing location), share
Table 1.1 Segment revenue and operating income, FY2023 to FY2025 ($bn)
LineFY2023FY2024FY2025
CCPG revenue ($bn)32.3133.3532.23
DCAI revenue ($bn)15.9816.1316.92
Intel Foundry revenue ($bn)18.5017.3217.83
All Other revenue ($bn)5.463.603.56
Intersegment eliminations revenue ($bn)(18.02)(17.29)(17.68)
Total revenue ($bn)54.2353.1052.85
CCPG operating income ($bn)10.1311.599.32
DCAI operating income ($bn)0.951.413.42
Intel Foundry operating income ($bn)(7.08)(13.29)(10.32)
All Other operating income ($bn)1.51(0.06)0.26
Corporate unallocated operating income ($bn)(5.20)(11.18)(5.52)
Intersegment eliminations operating income ($bn)(0.21)(0.16)0.62
Operating income ($bn)0.09(11.68)(2.21)
FY2023 and FY2024 as recast in the FY2025 Form 10-K after Network and Edge moved into CCG and DCAI in Q1 2025; FY2022 and earlier were reported on the old structure and are not comparable.
Table 1.2 Segment revenue and operating income, last five quarters ($bn)
LineQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
CCPG revenue ($bn)8.548.197.738.888.10
DCAI revenue ($bn)4.124.745.056.267.32
Intel Foundry revenue ($bn)4.244.515.425.776.70
All Other revenue ($bn)0.990.570.630.700.69
Intersegment eliminations revenue ($bn)(4.23)(4.34)(5.25)(5.48)(6.29)
CCPG operating income ($bn)2.692.212.522.342.29
DCAI operating income ($bn)0.961.251.542.473.04
Intel Foundry operating income ($bn)(2.32)(2.51)(2.44)(2.09)(1.85)
All Other operating income ($bn)0.10(0.01)0.100.230.18
Corporate unallocated operating income ($bn)(0.78)(0.72)(5.08)(1.42)(1.06)
Intersegment eliminations operating income ($bn)0.030.360.220.25(0.07)
CCPG operating margin (%)31.627.032.626.428.2
DCAI operating margin (%)23.426.430.539.541.5
Intel Foundry operating margin (%)(54.8)(55.7)(45.0)(36.2)(27.7)
Comparatives as presented in the later earnings release. Segment operating margins computed as operating income over segment revenue.

2 Client PCs: Higher Prices, Fewer Units

  • CCPG revenue $8.10bn in Q3 2026, (5.1%), 49.0% of revenue against 62.5% a year earlier; operating income $2.29bn, 28.2% margin against 31.6%.
  • Price against volume: notebook and desktop revenue $6.9bn, $424m lower; units (14%), average selling prices +9% from pricing actions, partly to offset higher input costs, and premium mix. 9M 2026 client revenue $21.3bn, $763m higher, with prices +17% and units (12%) (10-Q).
  • Margin: $763m of higher period charges, mainly inventory, lowered CCPG operating income by $409m year on year (10-Q). Other CCPG revenue $1.2bn.
  • Outlook: the 10-Q states client demand fell in Q3 2026 against H1 2026 on component prices, mainly memory, IT budgets and inventory control, and expects these trends to worsen in Q4 2026 and persist in 2027. On the call management put PC units at about (12%) in 2026 and (10%) in 2027.
  • Products: Core Ultra Series 3 on Intel 18A in volume; first Googlebook devices from Acer, ASUS and Lenovo; over 130 customers adopting or testing Core Series 3 for edge AI and robotics (8-K Ex 99.1).
Figure 2.1 CCPG revenue and operating margin by quarter

How the PC market is changing

  • Prices up, units down: HP Personal Systems revenue rose 18.5% in its Jul 2026 quarter while units fell 16% (8-K Ex 99.1); Intel client units (14%) and prices +9% in Q3 2026. Dell Client Solutions revenue +20.2% and Apple Mac +28.7% in their latest quarters.
  • Memory costs: Intel's 10-Q names higher component prices, mainly memory, as a cause of lower client demand in Q3 2026 against H1 2026.
  • Arm based PCs: Arm reports NVIDIA RTX Spark, an agent PC on Arm Compute Subsystems, with systems from Acer, ASUS, Dell, HP and Lenovo expected later in 2026, and more Qualcomm Snapdragon Windows PCs; Arm royalty revenue +22.2% in its Jun 2026 quarter (6-K Ex 99.2).
  • AMD client revenue +22.5% to $3.06bn in Q2 2026 (8-K Ex 99.1); AMD Q3 2026 results were not filed by 31 Oct 2026.
Figure 2.2 Client revenue growth by company
Table 2.1 Client and PC businesses compared
Company and linePeriodRevenueGrowth (%)Operating margin (%)Filed detail
Intel: CCPG revenueQ3 2026$8.10bn(5.1)28.2client volume (14%), ASP +9%; client revenue $6.9bn
AMD: Client business revenueQ2 2026$3.06bn22.515.2Client and Gaming segment $3.84bn, +6%, operating income $582m (margin shown is for Client and Gaming); Ryzen demand cited
Apple: Mac net salesJun 2026 quarter$10.35bn28.7not statedMac 9 month net sales $27.14bn, +8.6%
Qualcomm: QCT IoT revenue (includes PC chips)Jun 2026 quarter$1.83bn9.025.8QCT revenue $8.50bn (5%); margin shown is QCT EBT margin; PC revenue not reported separately
HP: Personal Systems net revenueJul 2026 quarter$11.77bn18.54.6units (16%); commercial PS +22%, consumer PS +10%
Dell: Client Solutions Group net revenueJul 2026 quarter$15.03bn20.27.6commercial client $13.19bn +22%, consumer $1.84bn +7%
Arm: Royalty revenueJun 2026 quarter$715m22.2not statedroyalty growth from higher royalty rates per chip (Armv9, CSS) and data center; total revenue $1.29bn +22%
AMD margin is for the Client and Gaming segment; Qualcomm margin is the QCT EBT margin and PC revenue is not reported separately; HP and Dell margins are segment operating margins. Apple does not report Mac profit.

3 Data Center and AI: Server CPUs in the AI Buildout

  • DCAI revenue $7.32bn in Q3 2026, +77.8%, 44.3% of revenue against 30.2% a year earlier; operating income $3.04bn, 41.5% margin against 23.4%. 9M 2026 DCAI revenue $18.63bn, +52.9%.
  • Price led growth: server revenue up $2.5bn on average selling prices +54%, mainly premium product mix and to a lesser extent demand based pricing, and units +10% from hyperscaler demand. Other DCAI revenue, incl. custom silicon, $1.4bn, $743m higher (10-Q).
  • Supply: the 10-Q states data center demand exceeded supply and substrate shortages limit CPUs that use advanced packaging; Intel made $1.2bn of supply prepayments in 9M 2026 and signed two substrate agreements after quarter end.
  • Customers and products: multiyear Oracle Cloud Infrastructure collaboration incl. planned Diamond Rapids instances; Xeon 6 host CPU in NVIDIA DGX Rubin NVL8; Google Xeon and custom IPU collaboration; Crescent Island inference GPU (8-K Ex 99.1 releases). The CEO cited AI inference and agent workloads raising CPU demand (Q1 2026 call).
Figure 3.1 DCAI revenue and operating margin by quarter

How the data center CPU market is changing

  • AI spending lifts accelerators first: NVIDIA data center revenue $89.0bn, +117%, in its Jul 2026 quarter; Broadcom AI semiconductor revenue $16.7bn, +221%; AMD data center $6.72bn, +107.3%, in Q2 2026 (Forms 8-K).
  • CPU demand follows: Dell traditional servers and networking revenue $10.53bn, +122.4%, in its Jul 2026 quarter, with AI optimized server orders of $60.9bn (8-K Ex 99.1); Intel server units +10% with prices +54%.
  • Arm in the server: Arm Neoverse shipments passed 1.5bn cores and its data center royalties more than doubled in the Jun 2026 quarter; Arm lists NVIDIA Vera, Google Axion, AWS Graviton5 and Microsoft Cobalt 200 as Arm based host CPUs (6-K Ex 99.2).
  • Component limits: Intel expects shortages of substrates, memory and other components to persist into 2027 (10-Q).
Figure 3.2 Data center revenue growth by company
Table 3.1 Data center businesses compared
Company and linePeriodRevenueGrowth (%)Operating margin (%)Filed detail
Intel: DCAI revenueQ3 2026$7.32bn77.841.5server ASP +54%, volume +10%
NVIDIA: Data Center revenueJul 2026 quarter$89.00bn117.0not statedtotal revenue $96.2bn, +106%; Q3 FY2027 revenue outlook $108.0bn plus or minus 2%
AMD: Data Center segment revenueQ2 2026$6.72bn107.331.3EPYC and Instinct demand; Data Center was 58% of AMD revenue
Broadcom: AI semiconductor revenueJul 2026 quarter (ended 2 Aug 2026)$16.70bn221.0not statedsemiconductor solutions $20.84bn +127%; Q4 FY2026 AI semiconductor guidance $21.7bn
Arm: Total revenueJun 2026 quarter$1.29bn22.441.2data center royalties more than doubled; margin shown is non GAAP operating margin (GAAP 7.1%)
Dell: Traditional servers and networking revenueJul 2026 quarter$10.53bn122.415.0customer side indicator for server CPU demand; margin shown is ISG operating margin
Arm margin is non GAAP operating margin (GAAP 7.1%); Dell margin is the Infrastructure Solutions Group operating margin. AMD Q3 2026 results were not filed by 31 Oct 2026.

4 Intel Foundry: 18A Ramp and the Search for 14A Customers

  • Intel Foundry revenue $6.70bn in Q3 2026, +58.1%; operating loss ($1.85bn), (27.7%) margin against (54.8%). 9M 2026 operating loss $6.38bn; FY2025 loss ($10.32bn).
  • Mostly an internal supplier: intersegment revenue $6.3bn in Q3 2026, $2.1bn higher on Intel 18A, Intel 3 and Intel 4 wafer volumes; external revenue $411m against $32m, mainly a non recurring contract; 9M 2026 external revenue $878m, mainly Altera.
  • Process roadmap: Intel 18A in high volume production since the start of 2026; 18A P in risk production since Jun 2026; Intel 14A 0.9 PDK released in Oct 2026, with risk production for internal products planned for H2 2027 and high volume in 2028 (Q2 2026 call). No external 14A customer has been named.
  • 10-K condition: Intel could pause or stop 14A without a large external customer; most products stay on internal nodes up to 18A P through at least 2030.
  • Capacity and partners: gross capex $11.83bn in 9M 2026; Apollo's 49% of Ireland Fab 34 repurchased for $14.2bn; Brookfield holds 49% of the Arizona fabs; the Israel Intel 7 fab stopped for about two weeks in Oct 2026.
Figure 4.1 Intel Foundry revenue and operating margin by quarter

How the foundry market is changing

  • Leading nodes concentrate at TSMC: TSMC Q3 2026 revenue $46.72bn, +41.2% in U.S. dollars, gross margin 66.4%, operating margin 58.7%; 2nm was 8% of wafer revenue, 3nm 33% and 5nm 28%; Q4 2026 guidance $52.3bn to $54.3bn (6-K Ex 99.1).
  • Mature node foundries grow more slowly: UMC Q3 2026 revenue NT$74.24bn, +25.6%, operating margin 25.1%; GlobalFoundries Q2 2026 revenue $1.79bn, +5.8%, operating margin 9.7%, with a $300m Department of Commerce letter of intent for silicon photonics.
  • Shareholders and suppliers tied to Intel Foundry: NVIDIA and SoftBank invested $7.0bn in 2025; Intel works with ASML on High NA EUV and with Lam Research and Applied Materials on new facilities (8-K Ex 99.1).
Figure 4.2 Foundry operating margin by company
Table 4.1 Foundry businesses compared
Company and linePeriodRevenueGrowth (%)Operating margin (%)Filed detail
Intel Foundry: segment revenueQ3 2026$6.70bn58.1(27.7)external revenue $411m; intersegment $6.3bn
TSMC: Revenue (US$)Q3 2026$46.72bn41.258.7NT$1.49tn revenue, +50.9% in NT$; gross margin 66.4%
UMC: Operating revenues (NT$)Q3 2026NT$74.2bn25.625.1operating income NT$18.64bn against NT$11.12bn
GlobalFoundries: Net revenueQ2 2026$1.79bn5.89.7gross margin 28.3%; $300m Department of Commerce LOI for silicon photonics (Jul 2026); Q3 2026 not filed by 31 Oct 2026
TSMC growth is in U.S. dollars; UMC in New Taiwan dollars. Samsung Foundry does not file with the SEC and is not shown.
Table 4.2 Intel Foundry external revenue ($m)
PeriodExternal revenueBasis
FY202415910-K FY2025
FY202530710-K FY2025; intersegment revenue $17.5bn
9M 20258510-Q Q3 2026
9M 2026878mainly Altera as an external customer after the Sep 2025 deconsolidation; intersegment $17.0bn
Q3 20253210-Q Q3 2026
Q3 2026411mainly a non recurring foundry contract; Altera $126m; intersegment $6.3bn

5 Financial Analysis & Ratios

  • Operating margin 2.9% TTM against (4.2%) in FY2025 and 24.6% in FY2021; Q3 2026 15.3% against 5.0%. Gross margin 43.0% in Q3 2026, the highest of the seven quarters shown.
  • Net loss TTM ($12.0bn) on operating income of $1.8bn: the gap is the Escrowed Shares mark to market (($12.6bn) in 9M 2026), tax expense of $1.5bn with no benefit recognized on U.S. losses, and income attributable to non controlling interests.
  • Cash flow TTM: operating cash flow $17.5bn, gross capex $15.9bn (26.5% of revenue) against $25.1bn in FY2024; free cash flow $1.6bn; company adjusted free cash flow ($6.6bn), after the $14.2bn Apollo buyout in partner contributions.
  • Balance sheet at 26 Sep 2026: cash and short term investments $54.0bn, debt $50.1bn, net cash $3.9bn; inventory $13.1bn; net property and equipment $105.3bn; non controlling interests $16.6bn, mainly Brookfield's 49% of the Arizona fab joint venture and Mobileye minority holders.
  • Capital returns: no dividends since Q3 2024 and no buybacks; $7.2bn of buyback authorization unused. The $6.5bn of notes repaid the bridge loan used for the Fab 34 buyout; the $22.6bn of net offering proceeds are for general corporate purposes, which may include capex and working capital (8-K Ex 99.1, Aug 2026).
  • Market value $349.5bn on 5.32bn shares (23 Oct 2026 cover count); enterprise value $345.6bn before non controlling interests.
Table 5.1 Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet summary ($bn unless stated)
Line itemFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025TTM Q3 2026
Revenue79.063.154.253.152.959.9
Gross profit43.826.921.717.318.423.9
Research and development15.217.516.016.513.813.5
Selling, general and administrative6.57.05.65.54.64.4
Operating income19.52.30.1(11.7)(2.2)1.8
Net income19.98.01.7(18.8)(0.3)(12.0)
Diluted EPS ($)4.861.940.40(4.38)(0.06)(2.41)
Operating cash flow29.515.411.58.39.717.5
Capital expenditure(18.7)(24.8)(25.8)(25.1)(17.7)(15.9)
Free cash flow10.7(9.4)(14.3)(16.8)(8.0)1.6
Stock based compensation2.03.13.23.42.42.4
Cash and investments29.328.325.022.137.454.0
Total debt38.142.149.350.046.650.1
Total equity95.4103.3110.0105.0126.4131.6
Capital expenditure is company gross capex: additions to property and equipment in investing plus additions on extended payment terms in financing (FY2024 $1.2bn, FY2025 $3.0bn). Net income is attributable to Intel. Cash and investments are cash plus short term investments. Total equity includes non controlling interests. TTM equals Q4 2025 plus Q1 to Q3 2026; balance sheet items at 26 Sep 2026.
Figure 5.1 Quarterly revenue and margins
Table 5.2 What changed, Q3 2026 against Q3 2025
MetricQ3 2025Q3 2026Change
Revenue ($bn)13.6516.5120.9%
Gross profit ($bn)5.227.1036.0%
Operating income ($bn)0.682.52269.3%
Net income ($bn)4.063.32(18.3%)
Diluted EPS ($)0.900.60(33.3%)
Operating cash flow ($bn)2.555.0899.6%
Free cash flow ($bn)(0.41)0.86n/a
Operating margin (%)5.015.310.3 pts
Net margin (%)29.820.1(9.7 pts)
Table 5.3 Ratio analysis
RatioFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025TTM Q3 2026
Growth and margins
Revenue growth (%)n/a(20.2)(14.0)(2.1)(0.5)n/a
Gross margin (%)55.442.640.032.734.839.9
Operating margin (%)24.63.70.2(22.0)(4.2)2.9
Net margin (%)25.112.73.1(35.3)(0.5)(20.1)
FCF margin (%)13.6(14.9)(26.3)(31.7)(15.1)2.7
Cost and investment intensity
R&D (%) revenue19.227.829.631.226.122.5
SBC (%) revenue2.65.06.06.44.64.1
Capex (%) revenue23.739.447.547.333.426.5
Effective tax rate (%)8.5(3.2)(119.8)n/a98.3n/a
Returns
ROE (%)20.88.11.6(17.4)(0.2)(9.1)
ROA (%)11.84.60.9(9.7)(0.1)(5.3)
ROIC (%)17.11.60.1(7.2)(1.3)1.1
Asset turnover (x)0.470.350.280.270.250.26
Liquidity and leverage
Current ratio (x)2.131.571.541.332.022.21
Debt to equity (x)0.400.410.450.480.370.38
Net cash ($bn)(8.8)(13.7)(24.2)(27.9)(9.2)3.9
Efficiency and cash quality
Days sales outstanding442423242725
Inventory days112133125125123133
FCF to net income (x)0.54(1.17)(8.45)n/an/an/a
ROE and ROA use average balances for FY2022 to FY2025 and period end balances for FY2021 and TTM. Effective tax rate is shown only for years with pretax income; FY2024 includes a $9.9bn valuation allowance.
Figure 5.2 Margin profile
Figure 5.3 Operating cash flow, capital expenditure and free cash flow
Table 5.4 Valuation snapshot at $65.76 per share, 30 Oct 2026
MeasureValue
Market cap ($bn)349.5
Enterprise value ($bn)345.6
P/E on TTM non GAAP EPS (x)47.7
EV/Sales (TTM) (x)5.8
EV/EBITDA (TTM) (x)24.0
FCF yield (%)0.5
Price/Book on Intel stockholders' equity (x)3.0

Cost structure and profitability

  • Cost of sales 57.0% of Q3 2026 revenue against 61.8% a year earlier and 72.5% in Q2 2025; GAAP gross margin 43.0%, non GAAP 44.1%. The Q4 2026 guidance of 38.0% non GAAP includes about 200 basis points from the Kiryat Gat stoppage (stated on the call).
  • R&D $3.49bn, 21.1% of revenue against 23.7%; marketing, general and administrative $1.03bn, 6.2% of revenue. FY2026 non GAAP operating expense guidance $16.3bn against $16.5bn in FY2025 and $20.6bn GAAP in FY2025.
  • Restructuring and other: $6.97bn in FY2024, $2.19bn in FY2025 and $4.07bn in Q1 2026, mainly the Mobileye goodwill impairment; headcount fell from 108.9k to 81.1k.
  • Operating margin 15.3% in Q3 2026 against 5.0% a year earlier; DCAI operating income rose $2.08bn and the Intel Foundry loss fell $0.47bn, while CCPG operating income fell $0.41bn.
  • Capital spending: gross capex $11.83bn in 9M 2026 against $13.65bn in 9M 2025; net capex (company) $21.03bn, raised by the $14.2bn Fab 34 buyout booked in partner contributions.
  • Interest and other explains the gap between operating income and net income: $3.89bn in Q3 2025 incl. the $5.5bn Altera sale gain; ($12.62bn) in Q2 2026 incl. the ($12.53bn) Escrowed Shares loss; $1.46bn in Q3 2026 incl. a $1.01bn gain.
Figure 5.4 Costs as % of revenue by quarter
Figure 5.5 Operating cash flow, capex and free cash flow by quarter
Figure 5.6 Operating income and net income attributable to Intel by quarter
Table 5.5 Costs as % of revenue, last five quarters
LineQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
Cost of sales (% of revenue)61.863.960.659.657.0
Research and development (% of revenue)23.723.524.920.921.1
Marketing, general and administrative (% of revenue)8.38.67.67.36.2
Restructuring and other (% of revenue)1.3(0.2)30.01.10.3
Operating income (% of revenue)5.04.2(23.1)11.115.3
Gross capital expenditure (% of revenue)21.729.436.616.425.5
Non GAAP gross margin (%)40.037.941.041.844.1
Non GAAP operating margin (%)11.28.812.317.219.6
Table 5.6 Operating income to net income ($bn)
LineQ3 2025Q3 20269M 2026
Operating income0.682.521.18
Interest and other, net, incl. equity investments3.891.46(11.97)
of which Escrowed Shares mark to marketnot stated1.01(12.61)
Income taxes(0.30)(0.46)(0.83)
Net income attributable to non controlling interests(0.21)(0.20)0.17
Net income attributable to Intel4.063.32(11.44)
Interest and other is pretax income less operating income; income attributable to non controlling interests is pretax income less taxes less net income attributable to Intel. Q3 2025 Escrowed Shares amount is not stated in the data used.
Table 5.7 Capital expenditure and company free cash flow measures ($bn)
LineQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 20269M 2026
Gross capital expenditure2.964.024.962.654.2211.83
Government capital incentives received0.050.560.110.060.050.22
Partner contributions, net1.351.401.96(12.22)0.85(9.41)
Net capital expenditure (company)1.562.062.9014.813.3221.03
Operating cash flow2.554.291.107.015.0813.18
Adjusted free cash flow (company)0.902.22(2.02)(8.42)1.64(8.80)
Net capital expenditure and adjusted free cash flow are company measures from the earnings releases; Q2 2026 partner contributions include the $14.2bn Apollo payment. Adjusted free cash flow also deducts finance lease payments.

6 MD&A & Management Commentary

Q3 2026 results release, Form 10-Q and earnings call

  • Q3 2026 (8-K Ex 99.1 and Form 10-Q, 29 Oct 2026): revenue $16.51bn, +20.9%, inside the $15.8bn to $16.8bn guidance; non GAAP gross margin 44.1% against 42.0% guided; EPS $0.60 GAAP and $0.52 non GAAP against $0.38 guided and $0.23 a year earlier.
  • Segments: DCAI $7.32bn, +77.8%, operating income $3.04bn; CCPG $8.10bn, (5.1%), operating income $2.29bn after $763m higher period charges, mainly inventory; Intel Foundry $6.70bn, +58.1%, operating loss ($1.85bn); All Other $0.69bn, (30.3%), after the Altera deconsolidation.
  • Costs: R&D $3.49bn, +8.0%; marketing, general and administrative $1.03bn, (8.8%); restructuring and other $54m. Inventory rose to $13.1bn from $11.6bn at end 2025 as the company builds supply.
  • Cash: operating cash flow $5.08bn; gross capex $4.22bn; adjusted free cash flow $1.64bn; Escrowed Shares gain $1.01bn in interest and other.
  • Stated on the call (29 Oct 2026): the Kiryat Gat accident stopped the Israel fab for about two weeks, with about $300m of lost revenue in each of Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 and about 200 basis points on Q4 gross margin; Intel 18A manufacturing cost about 40% lower than in Q1 2026; 2026 gross capex about $20bn and higher in 2027; positive 2026 adjusted free cash flow not expected.
  • Q2 2026 call (23 Jul 2026): revenue $16.1bn, +25%, $1.8bn above the guidance midpoint; DCAI operating margin 40%; Intel 18A output about 25% above target; external foundry revenue $293m (10-Q Q2 2026); custom ASIC business approaching a $2bn annual rate; 2026 capex above $20bn.
  • Q1 2026 call (23 Apr 2026): revenue $1.4bn above the guidance midpoint; businesses driven by AI about 60% of revenue; CEO cited the CPU to accelerator ratio moving from about 1:8 toward 1:4 in AI inference and agent workloads.
Table 6.1 Outlook as filed or stated on the calls, incl. every 2026 revision
ItemOutlookSource
Q4 2026 revenue$15.0bn to $16.0bn; midpoint $15.5bn against Q3 2026 $16.5bn and Q4 2025 $13.7bn8-K 29 Oct 2026, Ex 99.1
Q4 2026 gross marginGAAP 37.1%, non GAAP 38.0%; about 200 basis points from the Kiryat Gat stoppage (stated on the call)8-K 29 Oct 2026, Ex 99.1; Q3 2026 call
Q4 2026 EPS and tax rateGAAP $0.10, non GAAP $0.25; tax rate GAAP 31%, non GAAP 11%8-K 29 Oct 2026, Ex 99.1
FY2026 operating expenses, GAAP and non GAAPJan: $18.2bn and $16.0bn; Apr: $22.7bn and $16.5bn; Jul: $23.0bn and $16.5bn; Oct: $22.6bn and $16.3bn (Q4 $4.9bn and $4.4bn)8-K Ex 99.1 of 22 Jan, 23 Apr, 23 Jul, 29 Oct 2026
FY2026 gross capital expenditureJan: flat to slightly down on $17.7bn, weighted to H1; Apr: flat, tools up about 25%; Jul: above $20bn, tools up about 40%; Oct: about $20bn. 2027 expected above 2026Q4 2025 to Q3 2026 calls
FY2026 adjusted free cash flowJan: positive; Apr: positive excluding the Fab 34 buyout; Oct: positive 2026 adjusted free cash flow not expected. 9M 2026 actual ($8.80bn)Q4 2025, Q1 2026 and Q3 2026 calls
Kiryat Gat (Israel) fab stoppageabout $300m of revenue in Q4 2026 and about $300m in Q1 2027 (stated on the call); the Form 10-Q states the amount is not yet estimableQ3 2026 call; 10-Q Q3 2026
PC marketunits down about 12% in 2026 and about 10% in 2027 (stated on the call); CFO expects the slowdown at least through H1 2027Q3 2026 call; 8-K 29 Oct 2026, Ex 99.1
Quarterly revenue guidance against resultsQ1 2026: $11.7bn to $12.7bn, actual $13.6bn; Q2 2026: $13.8bn to $14.8bn, actual $16.1bn; Q3 2026: $15.8bn to $16.8bn, actual $16.5bn8-K Ex 99.1 releases
Quarterly non GAAP EPS guidance against resultsQ1 2026: $0.00, actual $0.29; Q2 2026: $0.20, actual $0.42; Q3 2026: $0.38, actual $0.528-K Ex 99.1 releases
Non controlling interestsabout $250m a quarter for Q2 to Q4 2026 and about $1.1bn in each of 2027 and 2028 after the Fab 34 repurchase, as reported from the calls and not in a filing; filed: $185m in Q2 2026 and $200m in Q3 2026, of which Arizona SCIP $197mQ1 2026 and Q2 2026 calls; 10-Q Q3 2026

Management and CFO commentary

  • CFO David Zinsner, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 29 Oct 2026: Q3 revenue, gross margin and EPS above guidance; data center revenue growth the highest in 15 years; PC slowdown expected at least through H1 2027; investment in capacity and working capital continues.
  • CFO, Q3 2026 call: Kiryat Gat stoppage about $300m of revenue in each of Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 and about 200 basis points on Q4 gross margin; 2026 gross capex about $20bn, 2027 higher; positive 2026 adjusted free cash flow not expected.
  • CFO, Q2 2026 call (23 Jul 2026): volume upside from factory yields and cycle times; businesses driven by AI about 70% of revenue, +70% year on year; 2026 gross capex above $20bn with tools up about 40%.
  • CFO, Q1 2026 call (23 Apr 2026): non GAAP gross margin 41%, about 650 basis points above guidance, incl. about $0.06 of EPS from a one time gain; PC units expected down low double digits in 2026; positive adjusted free cash flow expected excluding the Fab 34 buyout.
  • CFO, Q4 2025 call (22 Jan 2026): supply at its lowest in Q1 2026 after buffer inventory was used; called the 34.5% Q1 gross margin guidance not acceptable with 40% as the goal.
  • CEO Lip‑Bu Tan, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 29 Oct 2026: improving execution, more supply and process progress; CPU demand holds despite PC industry headwinds; first priority is more Xeon supply; 14A 0.9 PDK released.
  • CEO, Q2 2026 call: demand outpaces supply across wafers, memory and substrates; 18A P in risk production; 14A risk production for internal products in H2 2027 and high volume in 2028.
Table 6.2 Management statements in their own words
SpeakerDate and sourceStatement
Lip‑Bu Tan, CEO29 Oct 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“Our immediate priority is to unlock additional supply”
David Zinsner, EVP and CFO29 Oct 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“we see the PC slowdown continuing at least through the first half”
Lip‑Bu Tan, CEO23 Jul 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“Our Q2 results represent our strongest revenue growth in more than fifteen years”
David Zinsner, EVP and CFO22 Jan 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“We expect our available supply to be at its lowest level in Q1”
Table 6.3 Key disclosures in the Forms 10-Q and 10-K
ItemDisclosure
10-Q Q3 2026, Escrowed SharesDerivative liability $13.7bn at 26 Sep 2026; 9M 2026 loss ($12.61bn); 132m shares still in escrow, 66m of them in basic EPS.
10-Q Q3 2026, supplyIndustry shortages of substrates, memory and other components expected to persist into 2027; $1.2bn of supply prepayments in 9M 2026; two substrate agreements after quarter end with about $3.3bn payable by end 2027.
10-Q Q3 2026, IsraelMid Oct 2026 Kiryat Gat accident caused casualties and stopped production for about two weeks; scrap, remediation and under absorption charges expected from Q4 2026 to H1 2027; amount not yet estimable.
10-Q Q3 2026, liquidityCash and short term investments $54.0bn; debt $50.1bn; $14.5bn of credit facilities undrawn at 26 Sep 2026, $15.0bn from 1 Oct 2026; $1.7bn of long term customer deposits received in Q2 2026.
10-Q Q2 2026, Ireland SCIPApollo's 49% repurchased on 8 Apr 2026 for $14.2bn; $13.5bn charged to capital in excess of par; $532m liquidated damages liability extinguished.
10-Q Q3 2026, acquisitionsMobileye bought Mentee Robotics for $637m (Feb 2026); agreement in Oct 2026 to buy Classiq for about $1.9bn plus up to $350m contingent, in cash or shares, closing expected in H1 2027.
10-K FY2025, capitalOhio fab construction slowed; Germany fab and Poland assembly projects discontinued; Costa Rica assembly and test moved to Vietnam and Malaysia; capex commitments $12.8bn at Dec 2025 against $20.0bn a year earlier.
10-K FY2025, government support$5.7bn of CHIPS Act funding received in Aug 2025 for 275m shares, 241m warrants at $20 and 159m escrowed shares released at $20 per share of Secure Enclave funding; capital incentives recognized $6.7bn in 2025, incl. $5.4bn of investment tax credits.
10-K FY2025, taxFY2024 tax expense $8.0bn incl. a $9.9bn valuation allowance on U.S. deferred tax assets; Intel still records no benefit on U.S. losses in 2026.

7 Peer Valuation & Sector Summary

  • Sector: semiconductors, from PC and server CPUs to AI accelerators and contract manufacturing. Intel TTM revenue $59.9bn against NVIDIA $302.97bn (TTM Jul 2026), Qualcomm $44.1bn, AMD $41.3bn and Texas Instruments $20.8bn.
  • Growth (latest quarter): NVDA 105.9%, AMD 50.1%, TXN 27.7%, INTC 20.9%, QCOM (4.0%).
  • Operating margin TTM: NVDA 65.2%, TXN 40.8%, QCOM 23.2%, AMD 15.7%, INTC 2.9%; INTC non GAAP 14.8%.
  • Valuation: INTC 5.8x EV/Sales and 47.7x TTM non GAAP EPS against NVDA 16.3x and 25.6x, AMD 19.8x and 129.0x, TXN 13.3x and 38.8x, QCOM 4.1x and 18.7x.
Table 7.1 Peer comparison, latest reported trailing twelve months
CompanyRevenue TTM ($bn)Revenue growth (%)Gross margin (%)Operating margin (%)Net margin (%)Net cash ($bn)Market value ($bn)EV/Sales (x)P/E TTM (x)
INTC59.920.939.92.9(20.1)3.93505.8n/a
NVDA303.0105.974.765.263.723.24,94716.325.6
AMD41.350.153.215.715.69.983019.8129.0
QCOM44.1(4.0)54.223.221.0(7.0)1744.118.7
TXN20.827.760.240.834.3n/a27613.338.8
INTC TTM to 26 Sep 2026, growth Q3 2026; NVDA TTM to Jul 2026, growth Jul 2026 quarter; AMD and QCOM TTM to Jun 2026, growth Jun 2026 quarter (both report again in early Nov 2026); TXN TTM to Sep 2026. INTC P/E not shown as TTM diluted EPS is negative at ($2.41); on TTM non GAAP EPS of $1.38 it is 47.7x. TXN net cash not read; TXN EV/Sales uses market value. INTC net margin is net income attributable to Intel. Prices are last trades of 30 Oct 2026.
Figure 7.1 Revenue growth versus operating margin, peer set

8 Material Events & Contracts

  • 14 Forms 8-K in twelve months: four earnings releases, the NVIDIA placement, the Apollo Fab 34 repurchase, the $6.5bn notes, the Aug 2026 share offering, the resale shelf for the U.S. government shares, four board and officer notices and the annual meeting results.
  • Equity raised since Aug 2025: U.S. Department of Commerce 275m shares plus warrants for $5.7bn of CHIPS funding, with escrowed shares released at $20.00, SoftBank 87m at $23.00 ($2.0bn), NVIDIA 214.8m at $23.28 ($5.0bn) and the public offering of about 242m at $95.00 ($22.6bn net).
  • Fab joint ventures: Intel bought back Apollo's 49% of the Ireland Fab 34 venture for $14.2bn in Apr 2026; Brookfield holds 49% of the Arizona venture and contributed $5.0bn in 9M 2026.
Table 8.1 Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
DateItemsEvent
12 Nov 20255.02, 7.01, 9.01Craig H. Barratt, former CEO of Atheros and Barefoot Networks, appointed independent director from 10 Nov 2025 (Ex 99.1).
29 Dec 20253.02Private placement of 214,776,632 shares to NVIDIA at $23.28 for $5.0bn closed on 26 Dec 2025 (agreement of 15 Sep 2025).
22 Jan 20262.02, 9.01Q4 2025 results (Ex 99.1): revenue $13.7bn, (4%); EPS ($0.12) GAAP, $0.15 non GAAP; FY2025 revenue $52.9bn. Q1 2026 guidance $11.7bn to $12.7bn, non GAAP EPS $0.00.
23 Jan 20268.01, 9.01Resale registration of the U.S. Department of Commerce shares and warrant moved to a new automatic shelf; no new securities issued (Ex 5.1 legal opinion).
3 Mar 20267.01, 8.01, 9.01Chair Frank Yeary to retire at the 2026 annual meeting; Craig H. Barratt named chair from that date; board to fall from 12 to 11 directors (Ex 99.1).
3 Apr 20265.02, 9.01Chief Legal Officer April Miller Boise to leave on 1 Jun 2026 with severance under the Executive Severance Plan.
8 Apr 20268.01Repurchase of Apollo's 49% interest in the Fab 34 Ireland joint venture for $14.2bn, funded with cash and a $6.5bn bridge loan; Intel owns 100%.
23 Apr 20262.02, 9.01Q1 2026 results (Ex 99.1): revenue $13.6bn, +7%; EPS ($0.73) GAAP after the $3.9bn Mobileye goodwill impairment, $0.29 non GAAP. Q2 2026 guidance $13.8bn to $14.8bn.
24 Apr 20265.02, 9.01Chief Accounting Officer Scott Gawel resigned; CFO David Zinsner became principal accounting officer.
30 Apr 20268.01, 9.01$6.5bn senior notes in five tranches due 2031 to 2066, net proceeds about $6.47bn, used to repay the bridge loan (Ex 1.1, 4.1 to 4.6, 5.1).
15 May 20265.07Annual meeting of 13 May 2026: 11 directors elected; say on pay, equity plan and ESPP amendments approved; three stockholder proposals rejected.
23 Jul 20262.02, 9.01Q2 2026 results (Ex 99.1): revenue $16.1bn, +25%; EPS ($2.16) GAAP after a $12.5bn Escrowed Shares loss, $0.42 non GAAP. Q3 2026 guidance $15.8bn to $16.8bn.
12 Aug 20267.01, 8.01, 9.01Public offering of about 242m shares at $95.00 incl. the full underwriter option; gross $23.0bn, net $22.6bn (Ex 1.1, 5.1, 99.1, 99.2).
29 Oct 20262.02, 9.01Q3 2026 results (Ex 99.1): revenue $16.5bn, +21%; DCAI $7.3bn, +78%; EPS $0.60 GAAP, $0.52 non GAAP. Q4 2026 guidance $15.0bn to $16.0bn, non GAAP EPS $0.25. Plan to acquire Classiq; Oracle OCI Xeon collaboration.
Table 8.2 Material contracts and financing arrangements
ContractTerms
Senior notesDebt $50.1bn at 26 Sep 2026, incl. $3.8bn current. Apr 2026: $1.0bn 4.650% 2031, $1.0bn 5.000% 2033, $2.25bn 5.300% 2036, $1.75bn 6.125% 2056, $0.5bn 6.200% 2066; underwriters led by Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Barclays, BofA and Deutsche Bank.
U.S. Department of Commerce agreement (22 Aug 2025)275m shares and warrants for $5.7bn of CHIPS funding, 159m escrowed shares released as Secure Enclave funds arrive (132m left at 26 Sep 2026) and 241m warrants at $20 exercisable only if Intel owns less than 51% of Intel Foundry.
NVIDIA and SoftBank placementsNVIDIA 214,776,632 shares at $23.28 ($5.0bn, closed 26 Dec 2025); SoftBank 87m shares at $23.00 ($2.0bn, closed 26 Sep 2025).
Public offering (Ex 1.1, 10 Aug 2026)242,105,262 shares at $95.00 via J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup; underwriters paid $93.4325 per share; net $22.6bn.
Ireland and Arizona fab joint ventures (SCIP)Apollo's 49% of Ireland Fab 34 repurchased for $14.2bn on 8 Apr 2026; Brookfield 49% partner in Arizona Fab 52 and 62, partner contributions $5.0bn and income attributable to it $556m in 9M 2026.
Credit facilities and buyback$14.5bn of credit facilities undrawn at 26 Sep 2026 ($15.0bn from 1 Oct 2026); $7.2bn buyback authorization unused.
Supply agreementsTwo substrate supply agreements after quarter end with about $3.3bn payable by end 2027; capex commitments $12.8bn and other purchase obligations $6.7bn at Dec 2025.
Classiq acquisitionAgreement of Oct 2026, about $1.9bn plus up to $350m contingent, in cash or shares; closing expected in H1 2027.

9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

  • One class of common stock, one vote per share, no controlling holder. Vanguard Capital Management reported 6.52% (Schedule 13G, event date 31 Mar 2026). The U.S. Department of Commerce holds an estimated 302m shares, about 5.7%, with 132m more in escrow; NVIDIA received 214.8m shares and SoftBank 87m.
  • 2026 annual meeting (13 May 2026): 3.97bn shares represented, 79.11% of 5.02bn outstanding at the record date; all 11 directors elected, the lowest support 91.3% for Steve Sanghi; say on pay 86.9% of votes for and against; three stockholder proposals rejected.
  • Board: Frank Yeary retired as chair at the meeting after 17 years on the board; Craig H. Barratt, a director since Nov 2025, became independent chair; the board fell to 11 members.
  • Insiders, 12 months: two open market purchases of about $10.25m (CEO Lip‑Bu Tan $10.0m in the Aug 2026 offering; CFO David Zinsner $0.25m) and three open market sales of about $7.48m by two officers.
Table 9.1 Annual meeting vote results, 13 May 2026
ProposalFor (bn votes)Against (bn votes)Abstain (bn votes)For as % of votes castResult
Elect Craig H. Barratt3.1740.0480.00898.5Elected
Elect Barbara G. Novick3.0290.1820.01994.3Elected
Elect Steve Sanghi2.9430.2820.00691.3Elected
Elect Stacy J. Smith3.0250.2000.00593.8Elected
Ratify Ernst & Young LLP as independent auditor3.7230.2380.01194.0Approved
Advisory vote on executive compensation2.7950.4220.01386.9Approved
Amend and restate 2006 Equity Incentive Plan2.7150.5070.00984.3Approved
Amend and restate 2006 Employee Stock Purchase Plan3.2080.0150.00799.5Approved
Stockholder: report on risk of China exposure0.0943.1060.0302.9Rejected
Stockholder: report on human rights due diligence0.3192.8840.02810.0Rejected
Stockholder: policy separating Chair and CEO0.3802.8360.01411.8Rejected
Broker non votes 742.0m on each item except the auditor ratification.

2026 annual meeting

  • Meeting of 13 May 2026; record date 16 Mar 2026; results in the Form 8-K Item 5.07 of 15 May 2026.
  • Chair transition: announced on 3 Mar 2026 (Ex 99.1); Yeary cited a stronger balance sheet and progress on Intel 18A and 14A; Barratt said the board will focus on execution and on scaling U.S. based R&D and manufacturing.
  • Stockholder proposals: separate chair and CEO 11.8% of votes for and against; human rights due diligence report 10.0%; China exposure risk report 2.9%.
Table 9.2 Large holders
HolderShares (m)% of sharesSource
Vanguard Capital Management327.56.52Schedule 13G, 30 Apr 2026 (event 31 Mar 2026)
U.S. Department of Commerceabout 302 issued; 132 in escrowabout 5.7Forms 10-K and 10-Q notes; no Schedule 13D or 13G located
NVIDIA214.84.08-K 29 Dec 2025; later holding not confirmed
SoftBank Group87.01.6Form 10-Q; later holding not confirmed
Percentages for the U.S. Department of Commerce, NVIDIA and SoftBank use 5.32bn shares at 23 Oct 2026; the U.S. government figure assumes no sales since issue. The 2026 proxy ownership table and 13F holdings were not read.
Table 9.3 Open market insider transactions, last twelve months
DateInsiderTransactionValue ($m)
11 Aug 2026Lip‑Bu Tan, CEOBought 105,263 shares at $95.00 in the public offering, via family trust10.0
26 Jan 2026David Zinsner, CFOBought 5,882 shares at $42.500.25
2 Feb and 1 May 2026April Miller Boise, former Chief Legal OfficerSold 20,000 shares at $49.05 and 40,256 at $99.535.0
29 May 2026Naga Chandrasekaran, EVP and GM Intel FoundrySold 21,024 shares at $118.282.5
Other Form 4 filings report vesting, tax withholding and director grants.

10 Risk Factors

  • Q3 2026 Form 10-Q, risk factors as filed: the section refers to the risk factors in the 2025 Form 10-K and adds no new or updated factor text.
  • FY2025 Form 10-K: the Item 1A text could not be extracted in this pass, so no factor count and no comparison with FY2024 is shown. The table below lists risks named in the 10-K and the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q with the filed figures.
Table 10.1 Risks named in the FY2025 Form 10-K and the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q, with filed figures
RiskDisclosure and change
Intel 14A and foundry assetsThe FY2025 10-K names a possible pause or end of Intel 14A without a large external customer, citing over $100bn of net property and equipment mostly tied to foundry, possible loss of incentives and penalty payments under the SCIP agreements. Net property and equipment $105.3bn at 26 Sep 2026; 14A 0.9 PDK released Oct 2026; no external 14A customer named.
U.S. government agreementThe 10-K names a possible challenge to the Aug 2025 agreement, loss of future grant rights and the influence of a government shareholder. Escrowed Shares liability $13.7bn at 26 Sep 2026 with 132m shares in escrow; 241m warrants at $20 become exercisable if Intel owns less than 51% of Intel Foundry.
Escrowed Shares earnings volatilityMark to market through interest and other: ($1.80bn) in FY2025, ($12.53bn) in Q2 2026 and $1.01bn in Q3 2026; 9M 2026 ($12.61bn). The liability moves with Intel's share price.
Component supplySubstrate, memory and other component shortages expected into 2027 (10-Q Q3 2026); $1.2bn of supply prepayments in 9M 2026; two substrate agreements after quarter end with about $3.3bn payable by end 2027.
Israel operationsIran conflict since 28 Feb 2026, with Intel named among targets; the Israel Intel 7 fab produces a large share of revenue and has no insurance for war or political violence; mid Oct 2026 Kiryat Gat accident stopped output for about two weeks; helium shortage after strikes in Qatar (10-Q MD&A).
PC demandClient volume (14%) in Q3 2026; the 10-Q expects higher memory prices, IT budgets and inventory control to weigh more in Q4 2026 and into 2027; CCPG revenue $8.10bn, (5.1%).
Customer concentrationThree largest customers 43% of FY2025 revenue (19%, 12% and 12%) against 45% in FY2024 (10-K Note 3).
Mobileye goodwill and legal accrualsMobileye goodwill $4.3bn after the $3.9bn Q1 2026 impairment, with fair value less than 10% above carrying value; VLSI accrual $1.0bn; EC fine accrual $312m; Downfall class action dismissed in Sep 2026 and under appeal.
DilutionShares outstanding 5.32bn at 23 Oct 2026 against 4.33bn at Dec 2024, +22.7%, from the U.S. government, SoftBank and NVIDIA placements, the Aug 2026 offering and employee plans; Classiq may be paid in cash or shares.

Risk factor update in the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q, as filed

Table 10.2 Risk factor statement and related disclosures in the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q
FilingStatement
10-Q Q3 2026, filed 29 Oct 2026Part II Item 1A refers to the risk factors in the 2025 Form 10-K and adds no new or updated risk factor text.
10-Q Q3 2026, MD&ADiscusses the Iran conflict (Intel named on an Iranian target list in late Mar 2026; Israel fab without insurance for war related business interruption), a helium shortage after strikes on Qatar energy fields and the mid Oct 2026 Kiryat Gat fab accident.

11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

  • INTC closed at $65.76 on 30 Oct 2026, (28.6%) on the 29 Oct close of $92.07, 53.8% below the 52 week high of $142.35 (Jul 2026) and +78.2% against $36.90 at end 2025.
  • Valuation: 47.7x TTM non GAAP EPS of $1.38; TTM diluted EPS ($2.41); 5.77x EV/Sales; free cash flow yield 0.46%; no dividend.
  • Reference prices of 2025 and 2026 share issues: U.S. government escrow release and warrant price $20.00 (the $5.7bn paid in Aug 2025 bought 275m shares plus warrants); SoftBank $23.00, NVIDIA $23.28, public offering $95.00.
  • Scenario model: revenue grows from TTM Q3 2026 $59.9bn for three years; operating margin as stated; 11% tax rate (non GAAP rate); 5.4bn shares incl. remaining escrow shares; no Escrowed Shares gains or losses; income attributable to non controlling interests of $0.8bn a year (Q3 2026 filed amount of $200m times four, mainly Brookfield's share of Arizona SCIP) deducted, so net income and EPS are attributable to Intel; price equals TTM Q3 2029 EPS times exit P/E.
Figure 11.1 INTC monthly closing price and three year scenarios

Critical factors and core assumptions

Table 11.1 Critical factors behind the best case
FactorCurrent valueBest case requiresEvidence in filings and calls
Data center CPU supply and pricingDCAI Q3 2026 $7.3bn, +77.8%, 41.5% marginDCAI above $35bn a year by FY2029 at about 40% marginServer ASP +54%, volume +10%; substrate shortages into 2027 (10-Q)
External customer for Intel 14AExternal foundry revenue $411m in Q3 2026; no 14A customer namedSigned external 14A customer by 2027; external revenue above $5bn by 202910-K FY2025 risk factor on pausing 14A; 14A 0.9 PDK Oct 2026
Foundry lossesIntel Foundry operating loss ($1.85bn), (27.7%) marginBreakeven by FY2029(54.8%) margin in Q3 2025; 18A cost about 40% below Q1 2026 (stated on the call)
PC demand and memory costsCCPG (5.1%); client volume (14%)PC market returns to growth in 2028PC units about (12%) in 2026 and (10%) in 2027 (stated on the call)
Capex and free cash flow2026 gross capex about $20bn; TTM operating cash flow $17.5bnPositive adjusted free cash flow from 2028 while capex risesPositive 2026 adjusted free cash flow not expected (stated on the call)
Share count5.32bn shares at Oct 2026 against 4.33bn at Dec 2024No further equity raise after Aug 2026Five share issues in 13 months (10-Q Q3 2026)
  • Revenue base TTM Q3 2026 $59.9bn; GAAP operating income $1.8bn (2.9% margin); non GAAP operating income $8.9bn (14.8%).
  • Best case: 14% revenue CAGR, 25% operating margin, 30x P/E; DCAI keeps price and volume gains as substrate supply eases, 14A wins an external customer by 2027, foundry losses near breakeven by 2029, PC market recovers in 2028.
  • Base case: 7% revenue CAGR, 15% margin, 22x P/E; data center growth offsets a PC decline of about 10% in 2027; foundry loss narrows gradually; capex above $20bn keeps free cash flow near zero through 2027.
  • Worst case: (2%) revenue CAGR, 3% margin, 15x P/E; PC demand falls more than guided, AMD gains server share, no external 14A customer and a node pause, Israel output disrupted.
  • Tax rate 11% (non GAAP planning rate); 5.40bn shares; no Escrowed Shares marks; non controlling interests deducted at $0.8bn a year (Q3 2026 run rate, 10-Q); net interest is not deducted.

Scenarios, three years forward

Table 11.2 Scenario analysis, TTM Q3 2026 to TTM Q3 2029
MeasureWorst caseBase caseBest case
Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%)(2.0)7.014.0
Revenue, TTM Q3 2029 ($bn)56.473.488.7
Operating margin, TTM Q3 2029 (%)3.015.025.0
Net income, TTM Q3 2029 ($bn)0.79.018.9
EPS, TTM Q3 2029 ($)0.131.673.51
Exit P/E (x)15.022.030.0
Implied price ($)237105
Change against $65.76 (%)(97)(44)60
Implied annual return (%)(69.0)(17.7)17.0
Intel pays no dividend. Net income and EPS are attributable to Intel: income attributable to non controlling interests of $0.8bn a year (Q3 2026 filed amount times four) is deducted after tax. Sensitivity tables use the same basis.
Figure 11.2 Three year price scenarios

Sensitivity analysis

Table 11.3 Sensitivity of implied price to revenue CAGR and operating margin at 22x P/E
Revenue CAGR \ Operating margin3%9%15%20%25%
(2%)$3$15$27$38$48
3%$4$18$32$44$56
7%$5$21$37$50$63
11%$6$23$41$56$71
14%$6$26$45$61$77
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $65.76. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below.
Table 11.4 Sensitivity of implied price to exit P/E and operating margin at 7% revenue CAGR
Exit P/E \ Operating margin3%9%15%20%25%
15x$3$14$25$34$43
18x$4$17$30$41$52
22x$5$21$37$50$63
26x$6$24$43$59$75
30x$6$28$50$68$86
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $65.76. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 30 October 2026.

Sources

All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. CFO and CEO statements are taken from the earnings releases and from the Q4 2025, Q1 2026, Q2 2026 and Q3 2026 earnings calls held by the company; figures marked as stated on the call are not in a filing.

Table A.1 Filings used, with accession numbers
FormPeriodFiledAccession number
10-QQ3 202629 Oct 20260000050863-26-000191
8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1Q3 202629 Oct 20260000050863-26-000188
10-QQ2 202623 Jul 20260000050863-26-000157
8-K Ex 99.1Q2 202623 Jul 20260000050863-26-000155
10-QQ1 202623 Apr 20260000050863-26-000079
8-K Ex 99.1Q1 202623 Apr 20260000050863-26-000077
10-KFY202522 Jan 20260000050863-26-000011
8-K Ex 99.1Q4 202522 Jan 20260000050863-26-000009
10-QQ3 20256 Nov 20250000050863-25-000179
10-QQ2 202524 Jul 20250000050863-25-000109
10-QQ1 202524 Apr 20250000050863-25-000074
10-KFY202431 Jan 20250000050863-25-000009
10-KFY202325 Jan 20240000050863-24-000010
10-KFY202226 Jan 20230000050863-23-000006
8-K (5.07)2026 annual meeting15 May 20260000050863-26-000118
8-K (8.01)Apollo repurchase8 Apr 20260000050863-26-000072
8-K (8.01)Equity offering12 Aug 20260001193125-26-346806
8-K (3.02)NVIDIA placement29 Dec 20250000050863-25-000204
Schedule 13GVanguard Capital Management30 Apr 20260002100119-26-000597
Table A.2 Further filings used: Intel Forms 8-K, peers and competitors
CompanyFormFiledAccession number
IntelForm 8-K Ex 99.1, Q1 2025 results24 Apr 20250000050863-25-000070
IntelForm 8-K Ex 99.1, Q2 2025 results24 Jul 20250000050863-25-000107
IntelForm 8-K Ex 99.1, Q3 2025 results23 Oct 20250000050863-25-000169
IntelForm 8-K, Item 5.02, 7.01, 9.0112 Nov 20250000050863-25-000194
IntelForm 8-K, Item 8.01, 9.0123 Jan 20260000050863-26-000031
IntelForm 8-K, Item 7.01, 8.01, 9.013 Mar 20260000050863-26-000044
IntelForm 8-K, Item 5.02, 9.013 Apr 20260000050863-26-000069
IntelForm 8-K, Item 5.02, 9.0124 Apr 20260000050863-26-000083
IntelForm 8-K, Item 8.01, 9.0130 Apr 20260001193125-26-197845
AMDForm 10-K FY2025; Form 10-Q Q2 202620260000002488-26-000018; 0000002488-26-000123
AMDForm 8-K Ex 99.14 Aug 20260000002488-26-000121
AppleForm 8-K Ex 99.130 Jul 20260000320193-26-000018
ArmForm 6-K Ex 99.229 Jul 20260001973239-26-000113
BroadcomForm 8-K Ex 99.12 Sep 20260001730168-26-000076
DellForm 8-K Ex 99.11 Sep 20260001571996-26-000039
GlobalFoundriesForm 6-K Ex 99.15 Aug 20260001709048-26-000218
HPForm 8-K Ex 99.126 Aug 20260000047217-26-000048
NVIDIAForm 8-K Ex 99.126 Aug 20260001045810-26-000073
QualcommForm 10-K FY2025; Form 10-Q Jun 2026 quarter2025 and 20260000804328-25-000085; 0000804328-26-000086
QualcommForm 8-K Ex 99.129 Jul 20260000804328-26-000085
TSMCForm 6-K Ex 99.115 Oct 20260001046179-26-000726
Texas InstrumentsForm 10-K FY2025; Form 10-Q Q3 202620260000097476-26-000059; 0000097476-26-000169
UMCForm 6-K Ex 99.128 Oct 20260001193125-26-435003
Table B.1 Exhibits to Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
FiledExhibitDocumentContent
12 Nov 2025Ex 99.1Intel appoints Dr. Craig H. Barratt to board of directorsCraig H. Barratt, 63, appointed independent director effective 10 Nov 2025 (Item 5.02); Former CEO of Atheros Communications, acquired by Qualcomm for $3.1bn; former CEO of Barefoot Networks and Intel SVP for ethernet, photonics and networking until 2020
29 Dec 2025Form 8-K bodyItem 3.02: completion of $5.0bn share sale to NVIDIAOn 26 Dec 2025 Intel issued 214,776,632 common shares to NVIDIA for $5.0bn cash, or $23.28 per share; Private placement under the Securities Act private placement exemption, per a Securities Purchase Agreement dated 15 Sep 2025
22 Jan 2026Ex 99.1Q4 2025 and FY2025 earnings releaseQ4 2025 revenue $13.7bn ($13.67bn), down 4% year on year; FY2025 revenue $52.9bn, flat; comparisons not adjusted for Altera deconsolidation (12 Sep 2025); Q4 2025 GAAP gross margin 36.1% (non GAAP 37.9%); GAAP EPS ($0.12), non GAAP EPS $0.15; FY2025 GAAP EPS ($0.06), non GAAP $0.42
23 Jan 2026Ex 5.1Skadden legal opinion on US Department of Commerce resale securitiesCovers resale by the U.S. Department of Commerce of up to 673,839,150 shares: 433,323,000 new shares plus 240,516,150 warrant shares; Securities were issued under the Warrant and Common Stock Agreement dated 22 Aug 2025
3 Mar 2026Ex 99.1Board chair Frank D. Yeary to retire; Craig H. Barratt elected chairFrank Yeary, director since 2009 and chair since 2023, will not stand for reelection at the 13 May 2026 annual meeting; Craig H. Barratt elected independent chair effective after the annual meeting
3 Apr 2026Form 8-K bodyItem 5.02: Chief Legal Officer April Miller Boise to separateEVP and Chief Legal Officer April Miller Boise to separate from Intel effective 1 Jun 2026, as determined on 30 Mar 2026; Entitled to severance under the Intel Executive Severance Plan in exchange for a release of claims
8 Apr 2026Form 8-K bodyItem 8.01: Intel repurchases Apollo 49% stake in Ireland Fab 34 joint ventureOn 8 Apr 2026 Intel repurchased the 49% equity interest held by Apollo managed funds in the Fab 34 (Ireland) joint venture for $14.2bn; Financed with cash on hand and a $6.5bn bridge loan that Intel intends to refinance
23 Apr 2026Ex 99.1Q1 2026 earnings releaseQ1 2026 revenue $13.6bn ($13.58bn), up 7% year on year; GAAP gross margin 39.4% (non GAAP 41.0%); GAAP EPS ($0.73) and net loss attributable to Intel $3.7bn, driven by $4.1bn restructuring and other charges (mainly Mobileye goodwill impairment) and a $1.1bn mark to market loss on Escrowed Shares; non GAAP EPS $0.29 vs $0.13
24 Apr 2026Form 8-K bodyItem 5.02: Chief Accounting Officer Scott Gawel resignsScott Gawel, CVP and Chief Accounting Officer, resigned effective 24 Apr 2026 to pursue another opportunity; CFO David Zinsner assumed the role of principal accounting officer in addition to principal financial officer
30 Apr 2026Ex 1.1Underwriting agreement for $6.5bn senior notes offeringUnderwriting agreement dated 27 Apr 2026 with Citigroup, J.P. Morgan, Barclays, BofA and Deutsche Bank as representatives; Five tranches: $1.0bn 4.650% 2031, $1.0bn 5.000% 2033, $2.25bn 5.300% 2036, $1.75bn 6.125% 2056, $500m 6.200% 2066
30 Apr 2026Ex 4.1Twenty first supplemental indenture for April 2026 notesSupplements the 29 Mar 2006 base indenture with Computershare Trust Company as trustee; Make whole redemption at Treasury plus 15 basis points (2031, 2033, 2036 notes) or plus 20 basis points (2056, 2066 notes) before par call dates
30 Apr 2026Ex 4.2 to Ex 4.6Forms of global notes for the five April 2026 tranchesMaturities: 1 Jun 2031, 15 Aug 2033, 15 May 2036, 15 May 2056, 15 May 2066; semiannual interest from 30 Apr 2026; Holders of 25% of a series may accelerate after an event of default; New York law governs
30 Apr 2026Ex 5.1Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher legal opinion on the notesOpines that the $6.5bn of notes, once authenticated and paid for, are valid and binding obligations of Intel; Notes registered under; final prospectus supplement filed 29 Apr 2026
15 May 2026Form 8-K bodyItem 5.07: 2026 annual meeting voting resultsAnnual meeting held 13 May 2026; 3,972,192,463 shares represented, 79.11% of 5,021,010,228 shares outstanding at the 16 Mar 2026 record date; All 11 director nominees elected; Lip‑Bu Tan received 3,202,606,177 votes for and 22,599,038 against; Steve Sanghi had the most votes against at 281,740,022
23 Jul 2026Ex 99.1Q2 2026 earnings releaseQ2 2026 revenue $16.1bn ($16.13bn), up 25% year on year; GAAP gross margin 40.4% (non GAAP 41.8%) vs 27.5% a year earlier; GAAP operating margin 11.1%; GAAP EPS ($2.16) and net loss attributable to Intel $11.0bn, driven by a $12.5bn mark to market loss on Escrowed Shares held for the US Department of Commerce; non GAAP EPS $0.42 vs ($0.10)
12 Aug 2026Ex 1.1Underwriting agreement for common stock offeringDated 10 Aug 2026 with J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup as representatives; 210,526,315 firm shares plus a 30 day option on 31,578,947 shares, exercised in full on 11 Aug 2026 (Item 8.01)
12 Aug 2026Ex 5.1Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher validity opinion on offered sharesCovers up to 242,105,262 common shares under filed 10 Aug 2026; Shares, once issued against payment, are validly issued, fully paid and non assessable
12 Aug 2026Ex 99.1Press release: proposed $15bn common stock offeringAnnounced 10 Aug 2026 a $15bn underwritten public offering of common stock, with a planned underwriter option for $2.25bn more; Proceeds for general corporate purposes, which may include capital expenditures and working capital
12 Aug 2026Ex 99.2Press release: upsized $20bn offering priced at $95 per shareOffering upsized to $20bn from $15bn; 210,526,315 shares priced at $95 per share; Expected net proceeds about $19.7bn before the option; closing expected 12 Aug 2026
29 Oct 2026Ex 99.1Q3 2026 earnings releaseQ3 2026 revenue $16.5bn ($16.51bn), up 21% year on year; GAAP gross margin 43.0% (non GAAP 44.1%); GAAP operating margin 15.3% (non GAAP 19.6%); GAAP EPS $0.60 (net income attributable to Intel $3.3bn, including a $1.0bn mark to market gain on Escrowed Shares); non GAAP EPS $0.52 vs $0.23