October 8, 2026·29 min read

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), Financial Analysis

Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.

Q2 2026 revenue rose 48% to $22.97bn as volume rose 60% and realized prices fell 13%. Mounjaro and Zepbound supplied 65% of H1 revenue; 2026 guidance is revenue of $85bn to $87bn and adjusted EPS of $35.50 to $36.50. Five years of 10-K data, quarterly filings to 30 June 2026, current reports to 5 August 2026, scenarios to 2029.

Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for 2021 to 2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 2024 to Q2 2026, the Forms 8-K filed from October 2025 to August 2026 and their quarterly earnings exhibits 99.1, the proxy statement of 2026, Schedules 13G, Forms 13F and Forms 4 on the record for central index key 59478, together with the comparable filings of seven peers. Accession numbers for every filing used appear in the Sources appendix. Lilly share price is close of 5 October 2026; peer market data were captured on 6 October 2026.

Share price

$1,143.12

52 week range $783.85 to $1,292.65

Market value

$1.08tn

941.4m shares on 10-Q cover; net debt $45.96bn

Price to earnings

38.4x

EPS $29.79, four quarters to Q2 2026; 31.8x on 2026E adjusted EPS

Q2 2026 revenue

$22.97bn

47.7% against Q2 2025

Gross margin

85.8%

84.3% in Q2 2025; 74.2% in 2021

Free cash flow

$18.19bn

Four quarters to Q2 2026, 22.8% of revenue

Stock: Shares closed at $1,143.12 on 5 October 2026, 11.6% below 52 week high and 46% above 52 week low. Price equals 38.4 times EPS of $29.79 for four quarters to 30 June 2026, 36.3 times adjusted EPS of $31.50 for same period and 31.8 times midpoint of adjusted EPS guidance for calendar 2026. Market value of $1.08tn uses 941.4m shares outstanding on 10-Q cover.
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 revenue was $22.97bn, up 48% on Q2 2025 and 16% on Q1 2026. Revenue of Mounjaro (tirzepatide, approved for type 2 diabetes) rose 91% to $9.94bn and Zepbound (tirzepatide, approved for obesity) rose 46% to $4.93bn. EPS was $7.94 against $6.29; adjusted EPS was $8.38 against $6.31, after charges of $3.03 and $0.14 a share for acquired in process research and development (IPR&D), research projects bought and expensed at purchase.
Price and volume: US revenue rose 33% on volume up 37% and price down 3%; 8-K puts US price decline at about 9% before changes to rebate estimates. Revenue outside US rose 80% on volume up 113% and price down 36%, which 10-Q attributes to Mounjaro entering China's national reimbursement list.
Guidance: Company raised 2026 revenue guidance twice, from $80bn to $83bn in February to $85bn to $87bn in August. Midpoint implies H2 revenue of $43.2bn, 17% above H2 2025, after 51% growth in H1.
Investment: Capital expenditures were $5.26bn in H1 2026 against $3.21bn a year earlier. Company paid $13.3bn for business development (acquisitions and licensing) in H1 and issued $9.0bn of notes in May 2026; total debt was $54.9bn at 30 June 2026 against $42.5bn at end of 2025.
Cash: Operating cash flow was $28.08bn and free cash flow $18.19bn for four quarters to June 2026. Dividends paid were $5.79bn and share repurchases $6.17bn; quarterly dividend is $1.73 a share.
Scenarios: 2029 adjusted EPS is $31.37 in worst case, $51.29 in base case and $62.90 in best case. At 18, 26 and 30 times earnings, implied value per share is $565, $1,334 and $1,887. Earnings multiple and revenue growth move base case value most.

1 Revenue & Business Model

Eli Lilly discovers, makes and sells medicines and reports one segment. Tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and as Zepbound for obesity, produced $14.87bn of Q2 2026 revenue, 65% of total, against 16% of 2023 revenue. Verzenio (breast cancer), Jardiance (type 2 diabetes, in collaboration with Boehringer Ingelheim), Trulicity (type 2 diabetes) and Taltz (psoriasis and related immune conditions), each named with an approved use listed in 10-K, together produced $4.78bn. 10-K reports about 50,000 employees, of whom 12,000 work in research and development, and three US wholesalers that each supplied 16% to 24% of 2025 revenue.

Figure 2. Mounjaro and Zepbound revenue by quarter

Mounjaro revenue outside US was $5.15bn in Q2 2026 against $1.90bn a year earlier and exceeded US Mounjaro revenue of $4.79bn for a second quarter. Trulicity revenue was $4.28bn in 2025 against $7.44bn in 2022. Jardiance revenue of $1.23bn in Q2 2026 includes a sales based milestone of $250m from Boehringer Ingelheim. Foundayo (orforglipron), a pill approved for obesity by US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in April 2026, had revenue of $98m in Q2.

Table 1. Revenue by product by quarter, $bn
Product	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026
Mounjaro	3.11	3.53	3.84	5.20	6.52	7.41	8.66	9.94
Zepbound	1.26	1.91	2.31	3.38	3.59	4.26	4.16	4.93
Verzenio	1.37	1.56	1.16	1.49	1.47	1.60	1.30	1.47
Jardiance	0.69	1.20	1.01	0.69	0.96	0.77	1.11	1.23
Trulicity	1.30	1.25	1.09	1.09	1.05	1.04	0.92	1.22
Taltz	0.88	0.95	0.76	0.85	0.90	1.05	0.73	0.86
Other products and collaboration revenue	2.83	3.14	2.54	2.86	3.12	3.16	2.91	3.32
Total revenue	11.44	13.53	12.73	15.56	17.60	19.29	19.80	22.97
US	7.81	9.03	8.49	10.81	11.30	12.88	12.12	14.41
Outside US	3.63	4.50	4.24	4.74	6.30	6.41	7.68	8.56
Revenue growth against prior year	20.4%	44.7%	45.2%	37.6%	53.9%	42.6%	55.5%	47.7%
Mounjaro and Zepbound, % of revenue	38.2%	40.2%	48.3%	55.1%	57.4%	60.5%	64.8%	64.7%

10-K and 10-Q revenue notes through sec-api.io. Q4 figures are full year less nine months. Jardiance includes Glyxambi, Synjardy and Trijardy XR and is collaboration revenue.

Table 2. Q2 2026 revenue by product, US and outside US, $bn
Product	US	Change	Outside US	Change
Mounjaro	4.79	45.1%	5.15	171.6%
Zepbound	4.87	44.2%	0.06	n/a
Verzenio	0.84	(9.0%)	0.63	12.3%
Jardiance	0.62	61.3%	0.61	99.7%
Trulicity	0.91	22.0%	0.31	(10.3%)
Taltz	0.54	(1.8%)	0.32	6.0%
Other	1.84	20.5%	1.48	11.4%
Total	14.41	33.3%	8.56	80.5%

10-Q (0000059478-26-000081). Change is against Q2 2025; n/a where prior year revenue was below $50m.

Table 3. Revenue by geography, $bn
Region	2023	2024	2025	Q2 2026	Share of Q2 2026
United States	21.79	30.38	43.48	14.41	62.7%
Europe	6.17	6.92	11.56	4.12	17.9%
China	1.54	1.66	1.95	0.94	4.1%
Japan	1.67	1.81	2.13	0.63	2.7%
Rest of world	2.95	4.27	6.06	2.88	12.5%
Total	34.12	45.04	65.18	22.97	100.0%

10-K (0000059478-26-000013) and 10-Q (0000059478-26-000081).

2 Financial Analysis & Ratios

Gross margin was 85.8% in Q2 2026 against 84.3% in Q2 2025; 10-Q cites improved cost of production and product mix, partly offset by lower realized prices. R&D expense rose 14% and marketing, selling and administrative expense rose 25% while revenue rose 48%. Gross margin less those two expense lines, which company calls performance margin, was 54.2% of revenue against 45.1%. Operating income rose 31% after acquired IPR&D charges of $2.78bn and special charges of $703m.

Table 4. What changed: Q2 2026 and H1 against prior year, $bn
Line	Q2 2026	Q2 2025	Change	H1 2026	H1 2025	Change
Revenue	22.97	15.56	47.7%	42.77	28.29	51.2%
US	14.41	10.81	33.3%	26.53	19.30	37.5%
Outside US	8.56	4.74	80.5%	16.24	8.98	80.8%
Mounjaro	9.94	5.20	91.2%	18.61	9.04	105.8%
Zepbound	4.93	3.38	45.8%	9.09	5.69	59.6%
Gross margin	19.71	13.11	50.3%	35.93	23.61	52.1%
R&D expense	3.82	3.34	14.5%	7.33	6.07	20.7%
Marketing, selling and administrative	3.43	2.75	24.6%	6.36	5.22	21.9%
Acquired IPR&D	2.78	0.15	n/a	3.36	1.73	94.7%
Asset impairment, restructuring and other special charges	0.70	0.00	n/a	0.98	0.04	n/a
Operating income	8.98	6.87	30.7%	17.89	10.56	69.4%
Net income	7.09	5.66	25.3%	14.49	8.42	72.1%
Diluted EPS, $	7.94	6.29	26.2%	16.19	9.35	73.2%
Adjusted EPS, $	8.38	6.31	32.8%	16.94	9.65	75.5%
Operating cash flow	10.69	3.09	246.3%	16.02	4.75	237.1%
Capital expenditures	2.93	1.70	72.8%	5.26	3.21	64.0%
Free cash flow	7.76	1.39	458.1%	10.76	1.55	596.2%
Gross margin, % of revenue	85.8%	84.3%	1.5 pts	84.0%	83.5%	0.5 pts
Performance margin	54.2%	45.1%	9.1 pts	52.0%	43.6%	8.4 pts
Effective tax rate	23.3%	16.5%	6.8 pts	19.9%	17.7%	2.2 pts

10-Q for quarter ended 30 June 2026 (0000059478-26-000081); adjusted EPS from Form 8-K exhibits. Operating income is revenue less cost of sales, R&D, marketing, selling and administrative, acquired IPR&D and special charges, as shown in Form 8-K. Performance margin here is on reported figures. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital expenditures.

Figure 3. Volume and realized price effects

Figure 4. Margins and expense ratios by quarter

Table 5. Five year financial summary, $bn
Calendar year	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	TTM
Revenue	28.32	28.54	34.12	45.04	65.18	79.67
Gross margin	21.01	21.91	27.04	36.62	54.13	66.44
R&D expense	6.93	7.19	9.31	10.99	13.34	14.60
Marketing, selling and administrative	6.43	6.44	7.40	8.59	11.09	12.24
Acquired IPR&D	0.97	0.91	3.80	3.28	2.91	4.54
Operating income	6.36	7.13	6.46	12.90	26.30	33.63
Net income	5.58	6.24	5.24	10.59	20.64	26.71
Diluted EPS, $	6.12	6.90	5.80	11.71	22.95	29.79
Dividends declared per share, $	3.53	4.07	4.69	5.40	6.23	6.69
Depreciation and amortization	1.55	1.52	1.53	1.77	2.00	2.10
Operating cash flow	7.37	7.59	4.24	8.82	16.81	28.08
Capital expenditures	1.31	1.85	3.45	5.06	7.84	9.89
Free cash flow	6.06	5.73	0.79	3.76	8.97	18.19
Purchases of IPR&D and cash paid for acquisitions	1.42	1.46	4.99	4.29	3.67	15.10
Share repurchases	1.25	1.50	0.75	2.50	4.11	6.17
Dividends paid	3.09	3.54	4.07	4.68	5.38	5.79
Cash and short term investments	3.91	2.21	2.93	3.42	7.27	8.95
Inventories	3.89	4.31	5.77	7.59	13.74	16.79
Property and equipment, net	8.99	10.14	12.91	17.10	24.68	29.29
Goodwill and other intangibles	11.58	11.28	11.85	11.94	12.42	26.96
Total assets	48.81	49.49	64.01	78.72	112.48	142.28
Sales rebates and discounts liability	6.85	8.78	11.69	11.54	17.38	21.12
Total debt	16.88	16.24	25.23	33.64	42.50	54.91
Shareholders' equity	8.98	10.65	10.77	14.27	26.54	33.88

10-K filings 2021 to 2025 and 10-Q filings through sec-api.io, each year as shown in latest filing that reports it. TTM is four quarters to 30 June 2026; balance sheet lines at 30 June 2026. Operating income as defined under Table 4.

Figure 5. R&D expense and acquired IPR&D

Figure 6. Operating cash flow, capital expenditures and free cash flow

Capital expenditures were 12.4% of revenue in four quarters to June 2026 against 4.6% in 2021, and net property and equipment rose from $8.99bn to $29.29bn. Inventories rose from $5.77bn at end of 2023 to $16.79bn, equal to 463 days of cost of sales. Liability for sales rebates and discounts was $21.12bn, 27% of trailing revenue; 10-K states that a 5% change in that liability at end of 2025 would change revenue by about $897m.

Table 6. Ratio analysis
Ratio	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	TTM
Growth and mix
Revenue growth	n/a	0.8%	19.6%	32.0%	44.7%	49.6%
Mounjaro and Zepbound, share of revenue	0.0%	1.7%	15.6%	36.6%	56.0%	62.1%
Margin
Gross margin	74.2%	76.8%	79.2%	81.3%	83.0%	83.4%
Performance margin	27.0%	29.0%	30.3%	37.8%	45.6%	49.7%
Operating margin	22.4%	25.0%	18.9%	28.6%	40.4%	42.2%
Net margin	19.7%	21.9%	15.4%	23.5%	31.7%	33.5%
R&D to revenue	24.5%	25.2%	27.3%	24.4%	20.5%	18.3%
Marketing, selling and administrative to revenue	22.7%	22.6%	21.7%	19.1%	17.0%	15.4%
Acquired IPR&D to revenue	3.4%	3.2%	11.1%	7.3%	4.5%	5.7%
Effective tax rate	9.3%	8.3%	20.0%	16.5%	19.8%	20.5%
Return
Return on average equity	n/a	63.6%	48.9%	84.6%	101.2%	102.4%
Operating income to average debt plus equity	n/a	27.0%	20.5%	30.7%	45.0%	45.8%
Cash
Free cash flow margin	21.4%	20.1%	2.3%	8.3%	13.8%	22.8%
Free cash flow per share, $	6.64	6.34	0.88	4.16	9.98	20.35
Capital expenditures to revenue	4.6%	6.5%	10.1%	11.2%	12.0%	12.4%
Buybacks and dividends to free cash flow	72%	88%	608%	191%	106%	66%
Leverage and liquidity
Debt to equity, times	1.88	1.52	2.34	2.36	1.60	1.62
Net debt to EBITDA, times	1.64	1.62	2.79	2.06	1.25	1.29
Operating income to interest expense, times	18.7	21.5	13.3	16.5	29.4	n/a
Current ratio, times	1.23	1.05	0.94	1.15	1.58	1.35
Efficiency
Days of inventory	194	237	298	329	454	463
Days sales outstanding	86	88	97	89	99	92
Sales rebates and discounts liability to revenue	24.2%	30.8%	34.3%	25.6%	26.7%	26.5%
Revenue to average total assets, times	n/a	0.58	0.60	0.63	0.68	0.66

This report's calculations from filed figures, with performance margin on reported figures. EBITDA is operating income plus depreciation and amortization; net debt is total debt less cash and short term investments. Day counts use period end balances.

Figure 8. Operating cash flow against uses of cash

3 MD&A & Management Commentary

10-Q for Q2 2026 attributes revenue growth to volume, led by Mounjaro and Zepbound, partly offset by lower realized prices. It states that near term results depend on timing of further approvals for orforglipron and on uptake in new channels, among them Medicare, US federal health insurance for people aged 65 and over, and that volume swings from channel dynamics can have a disproportionate effect in any period. On 5 August 2026 call, management said H2 lacks rebate estimate adjustments and sales milestones that helped H1, and reported that Lilly medicines were about 60% of US prescriptions in Q2 for incretin medicines, company's term for class that includes Mounjaro, Zepbound and Trulicity.

Table 7. Full year guidance against reported results
Year	Issued	Revenue, $bn	Adjusted EPS, $	Performance margin	Comparison
2025	30 Oct 2025	63.0 to 63.5	23.00 to 23.70	45.0% to 46.0%	Reported: revenue 65.18, adjusted EPS 24.21
2026	4 Feb 2026	80 to 83	33.50 to 35.00	46.0% to 47.5%	Tax rate 18% to 19%
2026	30 Apr 2026	82 to 85	35.50 to 37.00	47.0% to 48.5%	After Q1 revenue of 19.80
2026	5 Aug 2026	85 to 87	35.50 to 36.50	49.0% to 50.5%	H1 reported: revenue 42.77, adjusted EPS 16.94

Form 8-K exhibits 99.1 of 30 October 2025, 4 February, 30 April and 5 August 2026. August EPS range reflects $2.78 added at midpoint for underlying business and $3.03 deducted for Q2 acquired IPR&D. Guidance excludes acquired IPR&D after date of issue. Performance margin guidance is on adjusted basis.

Table 8. Pricing agreements and government programs as filed
Item	Disclosure
US government agreements	Finalized in Q1 2026: lower prices for Medicaid (joint federal and state health program for people on low incomes) and certain other prices; new medicines to launch with more balanced pricing across developed nations (10-Q)
Medicare Bridge program	Medicare beneficiaries have access to discounted Lilly obesity medicines from 1 July 2026 to 31 December 2027; state Medicaid programs may opt in. 10-Q describes uptake as unknown
Inflation Reduction Act	Law of 2022 under which US government sets Medicare prices for selected medicines: Jardiance from 2026; Trulicity and Verzenio from 2028 (10-Q)
China reimbursement list	Mounjaro added in Q1 2026; realized price outside US fell 25% in Q1 and 36% in Q2 (10-Q)
US realized price	Down 7% in Q1 and 3% in Q2; about 9% in Q2 before changes to rebate estimates (8-K). Cash pay prices for Zepbound were reduced (10-Q)
Tariffs	Lilly and pharmaceuticals are exempt from certain tariffs; 10-Q states exemptions may expire or be terminated

10-Q (0000059478-26-000081) and Form 8-K (0000059478-26-000077).

Table 9. Pipeline and recent approvals with regulatory status as filed
Medicine	Indication as filed	Status	Source
Orforglipron (Foundayo)	Obesity	FDA approval April 2026; launched in US in Q2 2026; submitted in European Union (EU) and Japan	10-Q Q1 and Q2 2026
Orforglipron	Type 2 diabetes	Submitted in US, EU and Japan	10-Q Q2 2026
Retatrutide	Obesity; type 2 diabetes	Phase 3 (late stage clinical trials); 10-Q lists company announcements of trial results. Application to FDA planned for Q1 2027 for obesity, obstructive sleep apnea and knee osteoarthritis pain (8-K)	10-Q Q2 2026; 8-K 5 Aug 2026
Tirzepatide	Cardiovascular outcomes in type 2 diabetes	Submitted in US	10-K 2025
Insulin efsitora alfa	Type 2 diabetes	Submitted in US, EU and Japan (10-K); positive opinion from European Medicines Agency committee (10-Q)	10-K 2025; 10-Q Q2 2026
Eloralintide	Obesity	Phase 3 trials started	10-K 2025; 10-Q Q2 2026
Imlunestrant (Inluriyo)	Breast cancer, defined subtype	Approved in US, EU and Japan; Q2 2026 revenue $75m	10-K 2025; 8-K 5 Aug 2026

10-K (0000059478-26-000013), 10-Q filings (0000059478-26-000045 and 0000059478-26-000081) and Form 8-K (0000059478-26-000077). Status lines restate regulatory status as filed.

4 Sector & Competitor Analysis

Morgan Stanley Research, research unit of an investment bank, put 2025 sales of incretin medicines for diabetes and obesity at $79bn and forecast $190bn for 2035, within a range of $170bn to $240bn (22 April 2026). Lilly's tirzepatide revenue of $36.5bn in 2025 equals 46% of that 2025 figure. IQVIA, a health data company that counts sales before manufacturer rebates, reported $132bn for the class in 2025, up 33.5%. Novo Nordisk reported H1 2026 adjusted sales down 2% in Danish kroner (DKK), with obesity care sales up 19% at constant exchange rates, and guides to 2026 adjusted sales growth of 0% to (6)% at constant exchange rates; Lilly revenue rose 51% in same period. Peer comparison uses margin after R&D and selling, general and administrative expense (SG&A).

Figure 10. Margin against revenue growth, Lilly and peers

Table 10. Eli Lilly against seven pharmaceutical peers, fiscal 2025
Company	Revenue	Growth	Growth, H1 2026	Gross margin	R&D to revenue	Margin after R&D and SG&A	Pretax margin	Capital expenditures to revenue	Free cash flow margin	Net debt	Market value	Forward P/E
Eli Lilly	$65.2bn	44.7%	51.2%	83.0%	20.5%	45.6%	39.5%	12.0%	13.8%	$35.2bn	$1.08tn	27.4
Novo Nordisk	DKK 309.1bn	6.4%	13.1%	81.0%	16.8%	41.4%	42.2%	19.5%	19.1%	DKK 104.5bn	$162bn	11.6
Pfizer	$62.6bn	(1.6%)	3.9%	74.3%	16.7%	35.6%	12.0%	4.2%	14.5%	$51.2bn	$157bn	9.9
Merck	$65.0bn	1.3%	5.0%	74.8%	24.3%	34.0%	32.4%	6.3%	19.0%	$34.8bn	$350bn	16.4
AbbVie	$61.2bn	8.6%	11.2%	70.2%	14.9%	32.5%	10.8%	2.0%	29.1%	$62.2bn	$471bn	17.6
J&J	$94.2bn	6.0%	8.2%	67.9%	15.6%	27.2%	34.6%	5.1%	20.9%	$27.8bn	$614bn	23.1
Amgen	$36.8bn	10.0%	7.8%	67.2%	19.8%	28.3%	24.4%	5.1%	22.0%	$45.5bn	$218bn	17.2
AstraZeneca	$58.7bn	8.6%	9.4%	81.9%	24.2%	23.7%	21.1%	4.8%	20.0%	$22.1bn	$250bn	14.7

Peers come from peer groups in Lilly's 10-K performance graph; Novo Nordisk is other large maker of incretin medicines. Latest 10-K or 20-F and H1 2026 10-Q or 6-K of each company through sec-api.io, on same definitions: margin after R&D and SG&A is revenue less cost of sales, R&D and selling, general and administrative expense; free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital expenditures; net debt is at fiscal year end. Novo Nordisk H1 growth includes a DKK 26.8bn reversal of US rebate provisions; adjusted sales fell 2%. Peer market values and all forward price to earnings ratios are market data captured on 6 October 2026. Lilly forward ratio of 27.4 implies EPS of about $42.19, consistent with estimates for 12 months ahead; this report's 31.8 times uses guidance midpoint for calendar 2026. Lilly market value is 941.4m shares on 10-Q cover at close of 5 October 2026.

Figure 11. Share price against sector fund

Table 11. Incretin indicators disclosed by Lilly and Novo Nordisk
Company	Indicator	Latest	Source
Lilly	Tirzepatide revenue, H1 2026	$27.7bn, up 88% on H1 2025	10-Q
Lilly	Orforglipron (Foundayo) revenue, Q2 2026	$98m	8-K
Novo Nordisk	Obesity care adjusted sales, H1 2026	DKK 44.1bn, up 19% at constant rates	6-K
Novo Nordisk	Wegovy pill sales, H1 2026	DKK 5.5bn	6-K
Novo Nordisk	Adjusted gross margin, H1 2026	79.3% against 83.1%	6-K

10-Q 0000059478-26-000081; 8-K 0000059478-26-000077; Novo Nordisk 6-K 0000353278-26-000023, through sec-api.io.

Lilly's margin after R&D and SG&A of 45.6% in 2025 was highest in group; its capital expenditures of 12.0% of revenue compare with 19.5% at Novo Nordisk and 6.3% at Merck. A share bought at end of October 2021 was worth 475 at end of September 2026 on a base of 100, against 136 for a US health care sector fund, dividends included in both.

5 Material Events & Contracts

Table 12. Form 8-K filings, 1 October 2025 to 6 October 2026
Filed	Item	Event	Accession number
30 Oct 2025	2.02	Q3 2025 revenue $17.60bn, EPS $6.21, adjusted EPS $7.02. 2025 guidance raised. New plants announced in Virginia ($5bn) and Texas ($6.5bn); Puerto Rico expansion of more than $1.2bn.	0000059478-25-000251
21 Nov 2025	5.02	Carolyn Bertozzi elected to board from 8 December 2025.	0000059478-25-000271
4 Feb 2026	2.02	Q4 2025 revenue $19.29bn, EPS $7.39. 2026 guidance issued. Agreement with US government on access to obesity medicines. Plants announced in Alabama ($6bn), Europe ($3bn) and Pennsylvania.	0000059478-26-000008
30 Apr 2026	2.02	Q1 2026 revenue $19.80bn, EPS $8.26, adjusted EPS $8.55. Guidance raised. FDA approval of Foundayo (orforglipron) for obesity.	0000059478-26-000043
7 May 2026	5.07	Annual meeting voting results.	0000059478-26-000048
20 May 2026	8.01	$9.0bn of notes issued in eight series due 2028 to 2066, at fixed rates of 4.150% to 5.700% and two floating rate series.	0001193125-26-232707
5 Aug 2026	2.02	Q2 2026 revenue $22.97bn, EPS $7.94, adjusted EPS $8.38. Guidance raised to revenue of $85bn to $87bn. Additional $4.5bn committed to Indiana manufacturing sites.	0000059478-26-000077

Form 8-K filings through sec-api.io.

Table 13. Acquisitions in 2026 as filed, $bn
Target	Date	Value or charge	Cash paid, net	Maximum contingent payments	Field
Centessa Pharmaceuticals	24 Jun 2026	6.59	5.96	1.54	Sleep and wake disorders
Kelonia Therapeutics	25 Jun 2026	4.90	3.09	3.75	Cell therapy
Ventyx Biosciences	4 Mar 2026	1.18	1.06	n/a	Inflammatory diseases
Orna Therapeutics	May 2026	1.23	n/a	n/a	Cell therapy, autoimmune
Ajax Therapeutics	Jun 2026	0.91	n/a	n/a	Blood cancers
Three infectious disease companies	Jul 2026	Up to 3.9	About 2.0	n/a	Infectious disease
AtaiBeckley (pending)	n/a	n/a	About 2.8	n/a	Mental health

10-Q note 4 and liquidity section (0000059478-26-000081). First three are business combinations, shown at fair value of consideration, with goodwill of $2.94bn and IPR&D intangibles of $11.73bn. Orna and Ajax are asset acquisitions charged to acquired IPR&D. July 2026 deals closed after quarter end; AtaiBeckley amount is payable at closing.

Table 14. Material contracts and commitments
Contract	Terms as filed
Debt	Total debt $54.91bn at 30 June 2026: $7.05bn short term and current, $47.86bn long term. $10.1bn of committed credit facilities unused.
Supply agreements	Contract manufacturing and supply agreements for medicines in development could require up to about $10bn if specified purchases are not made, over terms of up to 8 years (10-K).
Manufacturing	Sites announced since October 2025: Texas $6.5bn, Alabama $6bn, Virginia $5bn, Indiana additional $4.5bn, Europe $3bn, Puerto Rico more than $1.2bn (8-K exhibits).
Boehringer Ingelheim	Jardiance family stays in collaboration to 31 December 2028; up to $410m of further sales based milestones available in 2026.
Buyback authorization	$15bn program of December 2024; $6.99bn remaining at 30 June 2026 after $3.96bn repurchased in H1.

10-K (0000059478-26-000013), 10-Q (0000059478-26-000081) and Form 8-K exhibits 99.1.

6 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

941.4m common shares were outstanding at 3 August 2026 (10-Q cover), and market value in this report uses that count. Diluted weighted average shares used for EPS were 893.7m in Q2 2026; difference of 47.7m compares with 50.0m shares held in employee benefit trust at end of 2025 (10-K). Market data pages show 891.4m shares and a value of $1.03tn. Each share carries one vote. Lilly Endowment, a private foundation, held 90.4m shares, 9.6%, at 30 June 2026. At annual meeting of 4 May 2026, 847.3m shares voted, about 90% of shares outstanding, and four directors were elected to terms ending in 2029 with 726.3m to 761.9m votes for.

Table 15. 2026 annual meeting: votes on proposals, m shares
Proposal	Proponent	For	Against	For, % of cast	Outcome
Advisory vote on executive pay	Board	732.0	30.5	96.0%	Approved
Ratify Ernst & Young as auditor for 2026	Board	802.7	43.5	94.9%	Approved
Amend articles to end classified board	Board	665.4	97.7	87.2%	Below required 80% of shares outstanding
Amend articles to end supermajority voting	Board	664.5	98.6	87.1%	Below required 80% of shares outstanding
Require independent board chair	Shareholder	257.3	505.1	33.7%	Defeated
Annual lobbying report	Shareholder	113.4	645.4	14.9%	Defeated

Form 8-K Item 5.07 (0000059478-26-000048) and proxy statement on Form DEF 14A (0000059478-26-000029). Votes for two article amendments equal about 70% of shares outstanding. Broker votes left uncast were 82.5m. Chief executive total pay for 2025 was $36.7m; pay ratio 293 to 1.

Table 16. Largest holders of Lilly common stock, latest filings
Holder	Shares, m	Form and date	% of shares
Lilly Endowment	90.4	13G/A, 30 Jun 2026	9.6%
BlackRock	67.5	13F, 30 Jun 2026	7.2%
Vanguard Capital Management	61.3	13G, 31 Mar 2026	6.5%
PNC Financial Services	51.3	13F, 30 Jun 2026	5.5%
State Street	36.2	13F, 30 Jun 2026	3.8%
FMR (Fidelity)	28.5	13F, 30 Jun 2026	3.0%
Capital Research Global Investors	20.9	13F, 30 Jun 2026	2.2%
Geode Capital Management	20.3	13F, 30 Jun 2026	2.2%
Capital World Investors	15.9	13F, 30 Jun 2026	1.7%
T. Rowe Price	13.9	13F, 30 Jun 2026	1.5%

Schedule 13G/A of 23 July 2026 (0000316011-26-000029) and Schedule 13G of 1 May 2026 (0002100119-26-001290), filed by holders of more than 5%, and Form 13F quarterly holdings reports of investment managers through sec-api.io; list covers managers retrieved and may omit other large holders. Percentages on Schedules 13G are as filed; others are this report's calculation on 941.4m shares. Vanguard Capital Management's Form 13F for 30 June 2026 lists 53.5m shares; its Schedule 13G includes affiliates.

7 Insider Activity

Lilly Endowment, a holder of 9.6%, sold 2.79m shares for about $2.77bn between 7 October 2025 and 6 May 2026. Four officers sold 17,000 shares for about $19.8m. All five officer sale filings cite Rule 10b5-1 plans, which set trades in advance, and open market purchases reported in period were zero. 126 Forms 4 were filed by 27 reporting persons.

Table 17. Open market sales reported on Forms 4, 12 months to 6 October 2026
Person	Role	Shares sold	Proceeds	Average price, $	Dates
Lilly Endowment	Holder of 9.6%	2.79m	$2.77bn	989.86	7 Oct 2025 to 6 May 2026
Patrik Jonsson	Executive vice president; president, Lilly International	6,500	$7.6m	1,175.10	17 Aug 2026
Anat Hakim	Executive vice president, general counsel	5,000	$6.0m	1,190.00	7 Aug 2026
Donald Zakrowski	Senior vice president, chief accounting officer	3,000	$3.4m	1,126.84	13 Nov 2025 and 10 Aug 2026
Ilya Yuffa	Executive vice president; president, Lilly USA	2,500	$2.9m	1,150.77	10 Jun 2026

Forms 4 through sec-api.io; proceeds are this report's calculation from reported prices. Two rows in one Lilly Endowment filing (0000316011-25-000073) show prices with a misplaced decimal and are read as $1,031.41 and $1,032.32. Awards and option exercises are excluded.

8 Risk Factors

10-Q for Q2 2026 reports no material change to risk factors in 2025 10-K. Table lists disclosed risks with figures from both filings.

Table 18. Disclosed risks and changes since 2025 10-K
Risk	Disclosure with figures	Change in 2026 filings
Product concentration	Mounjaro and Zepbound were 56% of 2025 revenue. 10-K states that incretin volume swings can have a disproportionate effect on results in any period.	65% of H1 2026 revenue.
Pricing and government programs	US realized price fell 10% in 2025. US rebate, discount and return liabilities rose from $10.31bn to $15.15bn in 2025, with $62.14bn deducted from sales.	US price down 7% in Q1 and 3% in Q2 2026; Medicare Bridge program from 1 July 2026.
Government price setting	Jardiance price set from 2026. 10-K expects other major products to be selected in future years.	Trulicity and Verzenio selected in January 2026, effective 2028.
Patents and generic challenges	Tirzepatide compound patent expires in 2036 in US; US data protection ends in 2027. Trulicity compound patent expires in 2027.	Generic applications for tirzepatide notified in July 2026; Verzenio application notified in April 2026.
Manufacturing and supply	Capital expenditures were $7.84bn in 2025. 10-K cites reliance on complex supply chains and on new plants coming online.	$5.26bn in H1 2026; inventories $16.79bn.
Research and acquisitions	10-K states a high rate of failure in drug development and that some acquired IPR&D assets are likely to become impaired.	$11.73bn of IPR&D intangibles added in H1; intangibles $18.11bn at 30 June 2026.
Debt	Total debt $42.50bn at end of 2025 against $16.88bn at end of 2021.	$54.91bn at 30 June 2026 after $9.0bn of notes in May 2026.
Litigation	10-K lists cases on insulin pricing, on 340B program (federal drug discounts for certain hospitals and clinics) and on incretin product liability; Lilly is largely self insured for product liability.	Special charges in H1 2026 include litigation charges.

10-K Items 1, 1A and 7 (0000059478-26-000013); 10-Q (0000059478-26-000081).

9 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

Three cases cover 2027 to 2029 on adjusted EPS. All start from 2026 revenue of $86.0bn and adjusted EPS of $36.00, midpoints of company guidance of 5 August 2026; analyst consensus for 2026 is $88.5bn and $36.95. Base case revenue of $106.6bn in 2028 and $117.0bn in 2029 equals analyst consensus of $106.6bn (22 analysts) and $117.0bn (15 analysts). Worst case holds revenue flat in 2028 and lowers adjusted performance margin to 44%, against company's adjusted guidance of 45.0% to 46.0% for 2025 and 49.0% to 50.5% for 2026. Best case reaches 55%, against 54.8% that management gave on adjusted basis for Q2 2026 (call), and 2029 revenue of $126.1bn, above top of analyst range of $125.2bn. Company guidance extends to 2026 only. Each case is an estimate under assumptions in table below.

Table 19. Scenario assumptions and results, 2027 to 2029
		Worst case			Base case			Best case
	2026E	2027	2028	2029	2027	2028	2029	2027	2028	2029
Assumptions
Revenue growth	31.9%	5.0%	0.0%	2.0%	12.5%	10.2%	9.7%	18.0%	13.0%	10.0%
Performance margin, adjusted	49.75%	46.0%	44.0%	44.0%	50.0%	50.5%	51.0%	52.0%	53.5%	55.0%
Acquired IPR&D, % of revenue	3.9%	4.0%	4.0%	4.0%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.0%	2.0%	2.0%
Net other expense, $bn	n/a	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.5	0.5	0.5
Tax rate	18.5%	21%	21%	21%	19%	19%	19%	18%	18%	18%
Diluted shares, m	894	890	890	890	890	885	880	885	875	865
Capital expenditures to revenue	n/a	14%	11%	9%	13%	11%	9%	13%	11%	9%
Results
Revenue, $bn	86.0	90.3	90.3	92.1	96.8	106.6	117.0	101.5	114.7	126.1
Gross margin less R&D and selling expense, $bn	42.8	41.5	39.7	40.5	48.4	53.8	59.6	52.8	61.3	69.4
Net income, adjusted, $bn	32.2	28.8	27.3	27.9	36.4	40.6	45.1	41.2	48.0	54.4
Adjusted EPS, $	36.00	32.33	30.73	31.37	40.92	45.92	51.29	46.55	54.88	62.90
Free cash flow per share, $	n/a	20.99	23.40	25.54	28.42	34.85	41.76	32.38	42.18	52.31
Price to earnings multiple applied, times				18			26			30
Implied value per share, $	1,143.12			565			1,334			1,887

This report's estimates. Adjusted EPS is revenue multiplied by performance margin, less acquired IPR&D and net other expense, taxed at stated rate and divided by diluted shares. Basis of inputs: 2027 growth of 12.5% in base case joins 2026 guidance midpoint to 2028 consensus revenue; 5% and 18% compare with 17% implied for H2 2026. Acquired IPR&D was 4.5% of revenue in 2025, 7.3% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2022. Net other expense of $1.0bn compares with net interest expense of $0.53bn in H1 2026 (8-K). Tax rates bracket guidance of 18% to 19% and H1 2026 rate of 19.9%. Diluted shares were 899.8m in Q2 2025 and 893.7m in Q2 2026; guidance assumes 894m. Capital expenditures were 12.4% of revenue in four quarters to June 2026; cases assume a lower share as announced plants are completed. Free cash flow is net income plus depreciation and amortization at 3% of revenue (3.1% in 2025) and share based compensation of $0.7bn, less capital expenditures, less working capital at 20% of revenue change; in 2025 net income plus depreciation and amortization exceeded operating cash flow by $5.8bn on a revenue increase of $20.1bn. Multiples: 26 times is near market data forward ratio of 27.4; 18 times lies within peer range of 9.9 to 23.1 in section 4; 30 times is below 31.8 times on 2026 guidance midpoint. 2029 values are undiscounted. 2026E column shows guidance midpoints, H1 acquired IPR&D of $3.36bn and, in last row, share price at close of 5 October 2026.

Figure 13. Adjusted EPS and free cash flow per share by scenario

Critical factors behind best case

Table 20. Critical factors, evidence and best case assumption
Factor	Evidence in filings and company statements	Best case assumes	Indicator
Volume growth	Volume rose 60% in Q2 2026. Morgan Stanley Research forecasts incretin sales of $190bn in 2035 against $79bn in 2025.	Revenue growth of 18%, 13% and 10%; 2029 revenue $126.1bn	Volume and price components in each 10-Q
Realized price	Realized price fell 13% in Q2 2026; management guided in February 2026 to a price drag in low to mid teens % for 2026 (call).	Price declines slow after 2026	US price change in each earnings release
Orforglipron and retatrutide	Foundayo revenue was $98m in its first quarter. Submissions for type 2 diabetes are filed; retatrutide application is planned for Q1 2027.	Launches add to tirzepatide revenue	Regulatory decisions; product revenue lines
Medicare and Medicaid access	Medicare Bridge program began on 1 July 2026 and runs to end of 2027; management reported volume about doubling within a month (call).	Access continues after 2027	Outcome of talks with Medicare agency cited in 10-Q
Margin	Adjusted performance margin was 54.8% in Q2 2026 and 50.0% in Q1 2026 (calls); guidance for 2026 is 49.0% to 50.5%.	52% in 2027 rising to 55% in 2029	Gross margin and expense ratios each quarter
Manufacturing capacity	Capital expenditures were $9.89bn in four quarters to June 2026; 10-K expects added capacity to come online over several years.	Supply meets demand in each year	Capital expenditures and inventories

Statements marked (call) are from earnings calls of 4 February, 30 April and 5 August 2026, paraphrased from public transcripts.

Sensitivity of base case

Figure 15. Value per share by revenue growth and multiple

Table 21. Base case 2029 adjusted EPS of $51.29: effect of each input
Input and range	At low end, $	At high end, $	Change from base, $
Performance margin, 3 points either way	48.06	54.52	(3.23) to 3.23
Revenue growth, 3 points lower or higher	47.17	55.65	(4.13) to 4.36
Acquired IPR&D, 5% to 0% of revenue	48.60	53.98	(2.69) to 2.69
Tax rate, 21% to 17%	50.03	52.56	(1.27) to 1.27
Diluted shares, 2% higher or lower	50.29	52.34	(1.01) to 1.05

This report's estimates. One input changed at a time.

Alternative views

Range of analyst estimates: Consensus for 2028 is revenue of $106.6bn and EPS of $49.14 within $43.23 to $56.41; for 2029, revenue of $117.0bn within $107.3bn to $125.2bn and EPS of $55.27. Base case EPS is $45.92 for 2028 and $51.29 for 2029. Base case deducts acquired IPR&D at 2.5% of revenue; company guidance excludes acquired IPR&D after its date of issue. With that charge at zero, base case 2029 EPS is $53.98. Quarterly estimates from five analysts sum to 2027 revenue of $91.7bn, below base case $96.8bn.
Price targets: Average target of 30 analysts is $1,329, within $930 to $1,600. Base case implied value of $1,334 refers to 2029 earnings.
Management view: 2026 revenue guidance rose from $80bn to $83bn in February to $82bn to $85bn in April and $85bn to $87bn in August; adjusted EPS guidance moved from $33.50 to $35.00 to $35.50 to $37.00 and then $35.50 to $36.50. Management told August call that dollar growth continues in H2. Guidance midpoint implies H2 revenue of $43.2bn, 1.1% above H1; analyst consensus for 2026 of $88.5bn is above top of guided range.
Price and competition: Realized prices fell 13% in each of last two quarters. Novo Nordisk reported lower realized prices and adjusted gross margin of 79.3% against 83.1% in H1 2026. Worst case applies flat revenue in 2028, year when Medicare Bridge program has ended and government prices for Trulicity and Verzenio take effect.
Valuation: Shares trade at 31.8 times guidance midpoint for calendar 2026 and 27.4 times in market data, which implies EPS of about $42.19 for 12 months ahead. Base case applies 26 times to 2029 adjusted EPS; at 22 times implied value is $1,128 and at 30 times $1,539. Peers in section 4 trade at 9.9 to 23.1 times forward earnings.

Sources

SEC filings, retrieved through sec-api.io: 10-K 2021 0000059478-22-000068, 10-K 2022 0000059478-23-000082, 10-K 2023 0000059478-24-000065, 10-Q Q1 2024 0000059478-24-000118, 10-Q Q2 2024 0000059478-24-000187, 10-Q Q3 2024 0000059478-24-000245, 10-K 2024 0000059478-25-000067, 10-Q Q1 2025 0000059478-25-000132, 10-Q Q2 2025 0000059478-25-000204, 10-Q Q3 2025 0000059478-25-000254, 10-K 2025 0000059478-26-000013, 10-Q Q1 2026 0000059478-26-000045, 10-Q Q2 2026 0000059478-26-000081, 8-K Q3 2025 0000059478-25-000251, 8-K Q4 2025 0000059478-26-000008, 8-K Q1 2026 0000059478-26-000043, 8-K Q2 2026 0000059478-26-000077. Forms 8-K, DEF 14A, Schedule 13G/A, 13F and Forms 4 as cited in tables. Peer filings: Novo Nordisk 20-F 0000353278-26-000012 and 6-K 0000353278-26-000023; Pfizer 10-K 0000078003-26-000026 and 10-Q 0000078003-26-000095; Merck 10-K 0000310158-26-000063 and 10-Q 0000310158-26-000212; AbbVie 10-K 0001551152-26-000008 and 10-Q 0001551152-26-000026; J&J 10-K 0000200406-26-000016 and 10-Q 0000200406-26-000153; Amgen 10-K 0000318154-26-000010 and 10-Q 0000318154-26-000126; AstraZeneca 20-F 0001104659-26-019130 and 6-K 0001104659-26-086846.

Company statements outside SEC filings: Earnings call transcripts of 30 October 2025, 4 February 2026, 30 April 2026 and 5 August 2026, read from public transcript pages and paraphrased. Market size figures in section 4 are from Morgan Stanley Research (22 April 2026) and IQVIA (15 April 2026).

This document is not financial advice and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. It is an independent analysis of public filings and is not a publication of the SEC. Product and pipeline entries restate regulatory status as filed. Scenario figures are estimates under stated assumptions and will differ from reported results. 2026 figures marked E combine H1 reported results with midpoints of company guidance of 5 August 2026 for full year; Eli Lilly had yet to report Q3 2026 results at publication date. Statements from earnings calls are paraphrased from public transcripts.