Oracle Corporation (ORCL), Financial Analysis
Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.
Q1 FY2027 revenue rose 30% to $19.35bn and cloud infrastructure revenue rose 121% to $7.39bn. Contracted backlog was $664bn, capital expenditures were $75.7bn in four quarters to August 2026 and debt was $125.3bn. Five years of 10-K data, quarterly filings to 31 August 2026, current reports to 14 September 2026, scenarios to FY2030.
Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2022 to FY2026, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 FY2024 to Q1 FY2027, the Forms 8-K filed from September 2025 to September 2026 and their quarterly earnings exhibits 99.1, the proxy statement of 2026, a Schedule 13G/A, Forms 13F and Forms 3 and 4 on the record for central index key 1341439, together with the comparable filings of seven peers. Accession numbers for every filing used appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are closing prices of 5 October 2026.
Share price $142.48 52 week range $114.50 to $322.54 | Market value $432bn Net debt $88.3bn at 31 August 2026 | Price to earnings 22.3x EPS $6.38, four quarters to Q1 FY2027; 17.6x adjusted FY2027E | Q1 FY2027 revenue $19.35bn 29.6% against Q1 FY2026 | Contracted backlog $664bn 13% due as revenue within 12 months; $455bn a year earlier | Free cash flow ($28.7bn) Four quarters to Q1 FY2027; capital expenditures $75.7bn |
- Stock: Shares closed at $142.48 on 5 October 2026, 56% below 52 week high and 24% above 52 week low. Price equals 22.3 times EPS of $6.38 for four quarters to 31 August 2026 and 17.6 times company guidance for FY2027 adjusted EPS of $8.10 (adjusted is Oracle's own measure, before stock based compensation, amortization of intangible assets and restructuring). Market value is $432bn; debt is $125.3bn, lease liabilities are $43.8bn and leases signed but yet to start are $288bn.
- Latest quarter: Q1 FY2027 revenue was $19.35bn, up 30%. Cloud infrastructure revenue was $7.39bn, up 121%; cloud applications $4.22bn, up 10%; software $5.55bn, down 3%. Operating income rose 57% to $6.73bn and EPS was $1.56 against $1.01.
- Backlog: Remaining performance obligations (RPO), revenue under signed contracts that is yet to be recognized, were $664bn at 31 August 2026 against $455bn a year earlier. 10-Q expects 13% as revenue within 12 months, $86bn, and 37% in months 13 to 36. 10-K names no customer; no customer reached 10% of FY2026 revenue.
- Investment: Capital expenditures were $28.5bn in Q1 FY2027 against $8.5bn a year earlier and $55.7bn in FY2026. Free cash flow was ($5.4bn) in Q1 after operating cash flow of $23.1bn, which includes $11.4bn of customer prepayments. Management guides FY2027 capital expenditures of $90bn to $95bn.
- Funding: Oracle issued $43bn of senior notes and $5.0bn of mandatory convertible preferred stock in FY2026 and sold 141m common shares for $19.9bn in Q1 FY2027. Interest expense was $1.43bn in Q1 against $923m; operating income was 4.7 times interest expense.
- Guidance: Company guides FY2027 revenue of at least $90bn, up 34%, and adjusted EPS of $8.10; Q2 FY2027 revenue growth of 30% to 34%. Reported revenue growth was 29.6% in Q1 FY2027 against guidance of 27% to 29%, and 20.6% in Q4 FY2026 against 19% to 21%.
- Scenarios: FY2030 adjusted EPS is $7.05 in worst case, $15.89 in base case and $21.22 in best case. At 12, 17 and 22 times earnings, implied value per share is $85, $270 and $467. Earnings multiple and cloud infrastructure revenue move base case value most.
1 Revenue & Business Model
Oracle sells cloud services, software, hardware and services to businesses and governments. Cloud revenue, which combines Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), which is rented computing, storage, database and AI capacity, and cloud applications (subscriptions to Fusion, its finance and operations suite for large companies, NetSuite, its suite for smaller companies, and industry software), was 60% of Q1 FY2027 revenue against 48% a year earlier. Software revenue, 29% of the total, is license sales of $655m and support contracts of $4.90bn. Hardware supplied 4% and services 7%. Americas supplied 71% of Q1 revenue, up 42%; Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) 19%, up 7%; Asia Pacific 10%, up 7%. Oracle employed about 141,000 people at 31 May 2026.
Cloud infrastructure revenue was $18.1bn in FY2026, up 77%, and $22.1bn in four quarters to August 2026. Cloud applications revenue rose 11% to $15.9bn in FY2026. Software license revenue fell 14% in Q1 FY2027 and support revenue fell 1%. 10-Q states that cloud infrastructure supplied 91% of constant currency growth in cloud revenue in Q1.
| Table 1. Revenue by business by quarter, $bn | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business line | Q2 FY2025 | Q3 FY2025 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2026 | Q3 FY2026 | Q4 FY2026 | Q1 FY2027 |
| Cloud infrastructure | 2.43 | 2.65 | 2.99 | 3.35 | 4.08 | 4.89 | 5.79 | 7.39 |
| Cloud applications | 3.50 | 3.56 | 3.74 | 3.84 | 3.90 | 4.03 | 4.13 | 4.22 |
| Software license | 1.20 | 1.13 | 2.01 | 0.77 | 0.94 | 1.15 | 1.88 | 0.66 |
| Software support | 4.87 | 4.80 | 4.96 | 4.96 | 4.94 | 4.97 | 4.94 | 4.90 |
| Hardware | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.85 | 0.67 | 0.78 | 0.71 | 0.92 | 0.77 |
| Services | 1.33 | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.43 | 1.44 | 1.52 | 1.41 |
| Total revenue | 14.06 | 14.13 | 15.90 | 14.93 | 16.06 | 17.19 | 19.18 | 19.35 |
| Revenue growth against prior year | 8.6% | 6.4% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 14.2% | 21.7% | 20.6% | 29.6% |
| Cloud revenue growth against prior year | 24.3% | 22.9% | 26.9% | 27.8% | 34.4% | 43.5% | 47.1% | 61.5% |
| Cloud share of revenue | 42.2% | 43.9% | 42.4% | 48.1% | 49.7% | 51.9% | 51.7% | 60.0% |
RPO rose from $137.8bn at 31 May 2025 to $455.3bn three months later and $664bn at 31 August 2026; 10-K attributes increase to certain large cloud contracts. Share due within 12 months fell from 33% to 13%, so $578bn is scheduled beyond August 2027. RPO includes amounts that will be invoiced in future periods and excludes usage above contracted minimums. Software license, hardware and usage based cloud revenue are booked as delivered and sit outside RPO.
| Table 2. Annual revenue under former and current presentation, $bn | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
| Former presentation | |||||
| Cloud services and license support | 30.17 | 35.31 | 39.38 | 44.03 | n/a |
| Cloud license and on premise license | 5.88 | 5.78 | 5.08 | 5.20 | n/a |
| Current presentation | |||||
| Cloud | 10.81 | 15.88 | 19.77 | 24.51 | 33.99 |
| Software (license and support) | 25.24 | 25.21 | 24.69 | 24.72 | 24.54 |
| Hardware and services | 6.39 | 8.87 | 8.50 | 8.17 | 8.83 |
| Total revenue | 42.44 | 49.95 | 52.96 | 57.40 | 67.36 |
2 Financial Analysis & Ratios
Operating margin was 34.8% in Q1 FY2027 against 28.7% in Q1 FY2026, when restructuring and other charges were $415m against $94m. Cloud and software expenses rose 77% to $6.40bn while cloud and software revenue rose 33%; segment margin of that business was 55% of its revenue against 60%, which 10-Q attributes to infrastructure expenses supporting cloud infrastructure growth. Depreciation rose from $1.35bn to $3.16bn. Sales and marketing, R&D and general and administrative expenses together fell 7%.
Capital expenditures of $75.7bn in four quarters to August 2026 equal 105% of revenue; property, plant and equipment, net, rose from $21.5bn at 31 May 2024 to $127.8bn. Operating cash flow of $46.9bn includes $16.0bn of customer prepayments with a financing component, recorded in deferred revenues of $30.8bn. Capital expenditures less those prepayments were $17.1bn in Q1 FY2027 on this report's arithmetic; management put its net cash outlay at $18bn (call, 10 September 2026). Stock based compensation was $4.8bn, 6.7% of revenue.
| Table 3. What changed: Q1 FY2027 and FY2026 against prior year, $bn | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Q1 FY2027 | Q1 FY2026 | Change | FY2026 | FY2025 | Change |
| Revenue | 19.35 | 14.93 | 29.6% | 67.36 | 57.40 | 17.3% |
| Cloud | 11.61 | 7.19 | 61.5% | 33.99 | 24.51 | 38.7% |
| Cloud infrastructure | 7.39 | 3.35 | 120.7% | 18.10 | 10.23 | 76.9% |
| Cloud applications | 4.22 | 3.84 | 9.9% | 15.89 | 14.27 | 11.3% |
| Software | 5.55 | 5.72 | (3.0%) | 24.54 | 24.72 | (0.7%) |
| Cloud and software expenses | 6.40 | 3.61 | 77.4% | 17.60 | 11.57 | 52.1% |
| Sales and marketing | 1.81 | 2.06 | (12.2%) | 8.33 | 8.65 | (3.7%) |
| Operating income | 6.73 | 4.28 | 57.3% | 20.61 | 17.68 | 16.6% |
| Interest expense | 1.43 | 0.92 | 54.7% | 4.60 | 3.58 | 28.5% |
| Net income | 4.76 | 2.93 | 62.6% | 17.09 | 12.44 | 37.3% |
| Diluted EPS, $ | 1.56 | 1.01 | 54.5% | 5.83 | 4.34 | 34.3% |
| Adjusted EPS, $ | 1.92 | 1.47 | 30.6% | 7.63 | 6.03 | 26.5% |
| Depreciation | 3.16 | 1.35 | 133.6% | 7.62 | 3.87 | 97.1% |
| Operating cash flow | 23.10 | 8.14 | 183.8% | 31.98 | 20.82 | 53.6% |
| Capital expenditures | 28.50 | 8.50 | 235.2% | 55.66 | 21.22 | 162.4% |
| Free cash flow | (5.40) | (0.36) | n/a | (23.69) | (0.39) | n/a |
| Operating margin | 34.8% | 28.7% | 6.1 pts | 30.6% | 30.8% | (0.2) pts |
| Table 4. Five year financial summary, $bn | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal year to 31 May | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
| Revenue | 42.44 | 49.95 | 52.96 | 57.40 | 67.36 | 71.78 |
| Cloud revenue | 10.81 | 15.88 | 19.77 | 24.51 | 33.99 | 38.41 |
| Operating income | 10.93 | 13.09 | 15.35 | 17.68 | 20.61 | 23.06 |
| Interest expense | 2.76 | 3.51 | 3.51 | 3.58 | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| Net income | 6.72 | 8.50 | 10.47 | 12.44 | 17.09 | 18.92 |
| Diluted EPS, $ | 2.41 | 3.07 | 3.71 | 4.34 | 5.83 | 6.38 |
| Dividends paid per share, $ | 1.28 | 1.36 | 1.60 | 1.70 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Depreciation | 1.97 | 2.53 | 3.13 | 3.87 | 7.62 | 9.43 |
| Operating cash flow | 9.54 | 17.17 | 18.67 | 20.82 | 31.98 | 46.94 |
| Capital expenditures | 4.51 | 8.70 | 6.87 | 21.22 | 55.66 | 75.66 |
| Free cash flow | 5.03 | 8.47 | 11.81 | (0.39) | (23.69) | (28.72) |
| Share repurchases | 16.25 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 0.60 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Senior notes, term loans and other borrowings issued | 0.00 | 33.49 | 0.00 | 19.55 | 46.09 | 46.09 |
| Common and preferred stock issued | 0.48 | 1.19 | 0.74 | 0.65 | 6.40 | 25.14 |
| Cash and marketable securities | 21.90 | 10.19 | 10.66 | 11.20 | 31.89 | 37.08 |
| Property, plant and equipment, net | 9.72 | 17.07 | 21.54 | 43.52 | 99.96 | 127.85 |
| Total assets | 109.30 | 134.38 | 140.98 | 168.36 | 261.76 | 303.26 |
| Notes payable and other borrowings | 75.86 | 90.48 | 86.87 | 92.57 | 129.54 | 125.34 |
| Total equity | (5.77) | 1.56 | 9.24 | 20.97 | 43.06 | 67.20 |
| Table 5. Ratio analysis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ratio | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
| Growth | ||||||
| Revenue growth | n/a | 17.7% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 17.3% | 21.6% |
| Cloud revenue growth | n/a | 46.9% | 24.5% | 23.9% | 38.7% | 47.3% |
| Margin | ||||||
| Operating margin | 25.7% | 26.2% | 29.0% | 30.8% | 30.6% | 32.1% |
| Cloud, software, hardware and services expenses to revenue | 20.9% | 27.2% | 28.6% | 29.5% | 34.2% | 36.0% |
| R&D to revenue | 17.0% | 17.3% | 16.8% | 17.2% | 15.3% | 14.2% |
| Depreciation to revenue | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 11.3% | 13.1% |
| Return | ||||||
| Return on average equity | n/a | n/a | 193.9% | 82.4% | 53.4% | 41.2% |
| Operating income to average debt plus equity | n/a | 16.2% | 16.3% | 16.9% | 14.4% | 14.9% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Operating cash flow to revenue | 22.5% | 34.4% | 35.3% | 36.3% | 47.5% | 65.4% |
| Free cash flow margin | 11.8% | 17.0% | 22.3% | (0.7%) | (35.2%) | (40.0%) |
| Free cash flow per share, $ | 1.80 | 3.06 | 4.18 | (0.14) | (8.13) | (9.57) |
| Capital expenditures to revenue | 10.6% | 17.4% | 13.0% | 37.0% | 82.6% | 105.4% |
| Buybacks and dividends to net income | 293% | 58% | 53% | 43% | 34% | 31% |
| Leverage and liquidity | ||||||
| Borrowings, $bn | 75.9 | 90.5 | 86.9 | 92.6 | 129.5 | 125.3 |
| Net debt to EBITDA, times | 3.84 | 4.18 | 3.55 | 3.41 | 3.27 | 2.60 |
| Operating income to interest expense, times | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| Efficiency | ||||||
| Days sales outstanding | 51 | 51 | 54 | 54 | 56 | 58 |
| Revenue to average net property, plant and equipment, times | n/a | 3.73 | 2.74 | 1.76 | 0.94 | 0.79 |
3 MD&A & Management Commentary
10-Q for Q1 FY2027 attributes revenue growth to cloud contracts purchased and renewed, expense growth to infrastructure costs, and higher interest expense to $43.0bn of senior notes issued in FY2026. It expects FY2027 capital expenditures above FY2026 and states that cash, operating cash flow and available financing cover committed capital expenditures and obligations for at least 12 months. On 10 September 2026 call, management reported 850MW of AI capacity delivered in the quarter (MW is megawatts of data center power, the unit in which Oracle states capacity; 1GW is 1,000MW) and utilization of 97.9%. 8-K exhibit of same date reports more than $30bn of additional AI contracts booked in Q1 and states that, based on their structuring, there is no incremental impact on plans to raise capital. Management gave no date for a return to positive free cash flow.
| Table 6. Guidance against reported results, US dollar basis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter | Revenue growth guidance | Reported | Cloud growth guidance | Reported | Adjusted EPS guidance, $ | Reported |
| Q4 FY2026 | 19% to 21% | 20.6% | 46% to 50% | 47.1% | 1.96 to 2.00 | 2.11 |
| Q1 FY2027 | 27% to 29% | 29.6% | 58% to 64% | 61.5% | 1.72 to 1.76 | 1.92 |
| Q2 FY2027 | 30% to 34% | n/a | 65% to 71% | n/a | 1.85 to 1.93 | n/a |
| Table 7. Multi year targets against reported figures and consensus, $bn | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Item | FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 |
| Cloud infrastructure revenue: path filed September 2025 | 18 | 32 | 73 | 114 | 144 |
| Cloud infrastructure revenue: target of October 2025 | 166 | ||||
| Cloud infrastructure revenue: reported | 18.1 | ||||
| Cloud infrastructure revenue: this report's estimate | 39.5 | ||||
| Total revenue: guidance or target | 67 | 90 | 225 | ||
| Total revenue: reported | 67.4 | ||||
| Total revenue: analyst consensus | 90.5 | 129.8 | 183.2 | 223.6 | |
| Adjusted EPS, $: guidance or target | 8.10 | 21.00 | |||
| Adjusted EPS, $: reported | 7.63 | ||||
| EPS, $: analyst consensus | 8.14 | 10.78 | 15.67 | 20.53 | |
| Table 8. Capital, capacity and margin statements by management | ||
|---|---|---|
| Item | Statement | Source |
| Capital expenditures | FY2027: $90bn to $95bn reported, at most $70bn after customer prepayments; Q1 FY2027: $28bn and $18bn | Call, 10 September 2026 |
| Financing | About $40bn of debt and equity in FY2027, $20bn of it an at the market equity program, which sells new shares at prevailing market prices, completed in Q1; no additional debt expected in calendar 2026 | 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 10 June 2026 |
| Customer funded hardware | Most of RPO increase in Q3 and Q4 FY2026 came from AI contracts where customer prepaid for GPUs (graphics processing units, chips used for AI computing) or supplied them; those portions total $75bn | 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 10 June 2026 |
| Capacity | More than 1.2GW delivered in FY2026; 850MW with more than 300,000 GPUs in Q1 FY2027; Abilene data center campus at 618MW | Calls, 10 June and 10 September 2026 |
| Margins | Gross margin of 30% to 40% on AI infrastructure; adjusted operating margin about 42% in Q1 FY2027 | Meeting, 16 October 2025; call, 10 September 2026 |
| Credit rating | Management stated commitment to an investment grade rating | Call, 10 December 2025 |
4 Sector & Competitor Analysis
Synergy Research Group, a market research firm, put worldwide cloud infrastructure services revenue at $143.4bn in Q2 2026, up 43% on Q2 2025, and $500bn for four quarters to June 2026 (release of 30 July 2026). Amazon held 28%, Microsoft 20% and Google 15%; release names Oracle and CoreWeave among second tier providers growing fastest. Oracle cloud infrastructure revenue of $7.39bn in quarter to August 2026 equals 5.2% of that quarterly market figure; quarters differ by two months and definitions differ. Oracle cloud infrastructure grew 121% against 82% at Google Cloud, 37% at Amazon Web Services (AWS) and 32% at Microsoft Intelligent Cloud.
| Table 9. Oracle against seven cloud and enterprise software peers | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Fiscal year end | Revenue | Growth | Growth, latest quarter | Operating margin | Capital expenditures to revenue | Free cash flow margin | Contracted backlog | Market value | Forward P/E |
| Oracle | May 2026 | $67.4bn | 17.3% | 29.6% | 30.6% | 82.6% | (35.2%) | $664bn | $432bn | 17.5 |
| Microsoft | Jun 2026 | $331.8bn | 17.8% | 17.7% | 46.8% | 34.9% | 20.2% | $684bn | $3.93tn | 26.6 |
| Amazon | Dec 2025 | $716.9bn | 12.4% | 19.6% | 11.2% | 18.4% | 1.1% | $496bn | $2.77tn | 26.8 |
| Alphabet | Dec 2025 | $402.8bn | 15.1% | 24.2% | 32.0% | 22.7% | 18.2% | $520bn | $4.25tn | 25.8 |
| CoreWeave | Dec 2025 | $5.1bn | 167.9% | 112.5% | (0.9%) | 200.9% | (141.3%) | $104bn | $51bn | n/a |
| Salesforce | Jan 2026 | $41.5bn | 9.6% | 10.8% | 20.1% | 1.4% | 34.7% | $66bn | $185bn | 15.7 |
| SAP | Dec 2025 | EUR 36.8bn | 7.7% | 9.4% | 26.1% | 2.0% | 22.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| IBM | Dec 2025 | $67.5bn | 7.6% | 1.1% | 15.3% | 1.6% | 17.9% | n/a | $209bn | 17.4 |
| Table 10. Cloud infrastructure units: revenue, backlog and capital expenditures, $bn | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unit | Quarter to | Revenue | Growth | Company backlog | Company capital expenditures, latest fiscal year |
| Amazon Web Services | Jun 2026 | 42.23 | 36.8% | 496 | 131.8 |
| Microsoft Intelligent Cloud | Jun 2026 | 39.31 | 31.6% | 684 | 115.9 |
| Google Cloud | Jun 2026 | 24.77 | 81.8% | 520 | 91.4 |
| Oracle cloud infrastructure | Aug 2026 | 7.39 | 120.7% | 664 | 55.7 |
| CoreWeave | Jun 2026 | 2.58 | 112.5% | 104 | 10.3 |
Oracle backlog of $664bn is 9.3 times revenue of latest four quarters; Microsoft backlog of $684bn is 2.1 times fiscal year revenue. Oracle capital expenditures were 83% of FY2026 revenue against 35% at Microsoft and 201% at CoreWeave. A share bought at end of October 2021 was worth 153 at end of September 2026 on a base of 100, dividends included, after 309 at end of September 2025; Nasdaq Composite index, which covers stocks listed on Nasdaq exchange and excludes dividends, stood at 173.
5 Material Events & Contracts
| Table 11. Form 8-K filings, 22 September 2025 to 6 October 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filed | Item | Event | Accession number |
| 22 Sep 2025 | 5.02 | Clay Magouyrk and Mike Sicilia named chief executive officers; Safra Catz becomes executive vice chair. Option grants of $250m and $100m. | 0001193125-25-210089 |
| 26 Sep 2025 | 8.01 | $18bn of senior notes issued in six series maturing 2030 to 2065, coupons 4.45% to 6.10%. | 0001193125-25-220445 |
| 21 Nov 2025 | 5.07 | Annual meeting voting results; Stephen Rusckowski elected director. | 0001193125-25-291441 |
| 10 Dec 2025 | 2.02 | Q2 FY2026 revenue $16.06bn, EPS $2.10 including $2.7bn gain before tax on sale of Ampere interest. RPO $523bn; new commitments from Meta, NVIDIA and others. | 0001193125-25-314207 |
| 4 Feb 2026 | 1.01 | Agreement to sell up to $20bn of common stock at the market; $25bn of senior notes issued in eight series maturing 2029 to 2066, coupons 4.55% to 6.85%. | 0001193125-26-037840 |
| 5 Feb 2026 | 1.01 | $5bn of 6.50% Series D mandatory convertible preferred stock issued as 100m depositary shares. | 0001193125-26-039344 |
| 10 Mar 2026 | 2.02 | Q3 FY2026 revenue $17.19bn, EPS $1.27. RPO $553bn. FY2027 revenue guidance raised to $90bn; plan to raise up to $50bn in calendar 2026. | 0001193125-26-100148 |
| 6 Apr 2026 | 5.02 | Hilary Maxson joins as chief financial officer from Schneider Electric; equity grant of $26m. | 0001193125-26-142939 |
| 10 Jun 2026 | 2.02 | Q4 FY2026 revenue $19.18bn, EPS $1.45; FY2026 revenue $67.36bn, EPS $5.83. RPO $638bn. About $40bn of financing expected in FY2027. | 0001193125-26-265848 |
| 10 Sep 2026 | 2.02 | Q1 FY2027 revenue $19.35bn, EPS $1.56. RPO $664bn. FY2027 guidance: revenue at least $90bn, adjusted EPS $8.10. At the market program completed. | 0001193125-26-387905 |
| 14 Sep 2026 | 8.01 | Larry Ellison cancelled his Rule 10b5-1 plan, a preset schedule for selling Oracle stock; no shares were sold under it. | 0001193125-26-389753 |
| Table 12. Capital raised since September 2025, $bn | ||
|---|---|---|
| Instrument | Amount | Terms as filed |
| Senior notes, September 2025 | 18.00 | Six series, 4.45% to 6.10%, due 2030 to 2065 |
| Senior notes, February 2026 | 25.00 | Eight series, floating and 4.55% to 6.85%, due 2029 to 2066 |
| Mandatory convertible preferred, February 2026 | 5.00 | 6.50% Series D, $5.0bn liquidation preference; dividends of $325m a year; converts 15 January 2029 |
| Common stock at the market, Q1 FY2027 | 19.91 | 141m shares, net proceeds; program of $20bn fully used |
| Customer prepayments, FY2026 and Q1 FY2027 | 15.96 | Prepayments with a financing component, counted in operating cash flow |
| Table 13. Material contracts and commitments | |
|---|---|
| Contract | Terms as filed |
| Borrowings | $130.1bn of principal at 31 May 2026, maturing 2026 to 2066; $7.21bn due in FY2027 and $10.15bn in FY2028. Term loan of $5.14bn due August 2027. |
| Credit lines | $10bn revolving credit facility to March 2031, undrawn; covenant of EBITDA to net interest expense of at least 3.0 times. Commercial paper program of $10bn, $1.5bn outstanding at 31 May 2026. |
| Leases yet to start | $288bn at 31 August 2026, nearly all data centers, for 15 to 19 years, starting between Q2 FY2027 and FY2029. Includes a lease with a guarantee of up to $3.3bn of lessor's borrowing (10-K). |
| Purchase obligations | $34.2bn at 31 August 2026 against $2.2bn at 31 May 2025, mainly components for cloud infrastructure and power supply for data centers. |
| Named customers | 8-K Exhibit 99.1 of 10 December 2025 names Meta and NVIDIA as new commitments. 10-K and 10-Q name no customer and give no RPO by customer. |
| Buyback authorization | $6.3bn remaining at 31 August 2026; no repurchases in Q1 FY2027; 0.4m shares for $93m under program in FY2026 (10-K note; cash flow statement shows $95m). |
6 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting
3.03bn common shares were outstanding at 21 September 2026, each with one vote. Lawrence J. Ellison, executive chair and chief technology officer, beneficially owned 1.16bn shares, 38.2%; proxy statement reports 413m of them pledged as collateral for personal indebtedness and lists no other holder above 5%. Thirteen directors were elected on 18 November 2025 with 1.79bn to 2.31bn votes for. Meeting of 18 November 2026 will vote on directors, executive pay, auditor and a stockholder proposal on access to proxy statement for stockholder proposals, which board opposes.
| Table 14. 2025 annual meeting: votes on proposals, shares | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proposal | Proponent | For | Against or withheld | For, % of votes cast |
| Advisory vote on executive pay | Board | 1.92bn | 423.8m | 81.9% |
| Ratify Ernst & Young as auditor for FY2026 | Board | 2.55bn | 63.4m | 97.6% |
| Election of Bruce Chizen, lowest vote among directors | Board | 1.79bn | 560.9m | 76.1% |
| Table 15. Largest holders: proxy statement and Form 13F positions at 30 June 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Holder | Shares | % of shares outstanding |
| Lawrence J. Ellison (proxy statement) | 1.16bn | 38.2% |
| BlackRock | 145.4m | 4.8% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | 111.8m | 3.7% |
| State Street | 78.6m | 2.6% |
| Geode Capital Management | 39.2m | 1.3% |
| FMR | 26.0m | 0.9% |
| Norges Bank | 25.0m | 0.8% |
| T. Rowe Price | 19.4m | 0.6% |
| Northern Trust | 18.8m | 0.6% |
7 Insider Activity
Nine officers and directors sold 642,421 shares for about $119.1m between 6 October 2025 and 6 October 2026, at prices from $139.94 to $300.00. Four of them sold under Rule 10b5-1 plans. Director Stephen Rusckowski bought 25,000 shares at $139.35 on 29 September 2026, the one open market purchase in period. Larry Ellison reported no sale, and Oracle disclosed on 14 September 2026 that he cancelled his Rule 10b5-1 selling plan.
| Table 16. Open market sales by officers and directors, 12 months to 6 October 2026 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Person | Role | Shares sold | Proceeds, $m | Average price, $ | Dates | Rule 10b5-1 plan |
| Jeffrey Henley | Vice chairman | 400,000 | 63.7 | 159.16 | 24 Jun 2026 | Yes |
| Clay Magouyrk | Chief executive officer | 60,000 | 14.5 | 242.38 | 21 Oct 2025 to 9 Feb 2026 | No |
| Jeffrey Berg | Director | 49,365 | 14.0 | 283.02 | 28 Oct 2025 | No |
| Stuart Levey | Chief legal officer | 34,758 | 8.6 | 246.57 | 10 Oct 2025 and 16 Apr 2026 | Yes |
| Douglas Kehring | Principal financial officer to April 2026 | 35,000 | 6.8 | 194.89 | 15 Jan 2026 | Yes |
| Mike Sicilia | Chief executive officer | 33,444 | 4.9 | 147.80 | 16 and 22 Sep 2026 | Yes |
| Three other officers and directors | 29,854 | 6.6 | 220.83 | 21 Oct 2025 to 22 Sep 2026 | No | |
| Total | 642,421 | 119.1 | 185.40 | |||
8 Risk Factors
10-Q for Q1 FY2027 makes no change to risk factors in FY2026 10-K. That 10-K added or reworded risks on customer performance under large cloud contracts, data center supply, indebtedness and dilution; table sets each beside filed figures.
| Table 17. Disclosed risks and changes against FY2025 10-K | ||
|---|---|---|
| Risk | Disclosure with figures | Change and latest figure |
| Customer performance and concentration | 10-K states that if customers fail to perform, Oracle could hold multi year commitments for excess data center space, capital expenditures and financings, and that certain OCI offerings are concentrated among a number of large customers, some highly leveraged. | New in FY2026 10-K. RPO $664bn; leases yet to start $288bn. |
| Lease terms against contract terms | 10-K states that terms and pricing of long term data center leases typically differ from duration and pricing of customer contracts. | New. Lease terms of 15 to 19 years. |
| Data center delivery | Expansion depends on sites, power, GPUs, memory and third party developers and their financing; long term power contracts may outlast customer contracts. | New. Purchase obligations $34.2bn. |
| Indebtedness and rating | $129.5bn of indebtedness at 31 May 2026. 10-K states a downgrade could raise cost of commercial paper, affect data center leases and customer eligibility, and increase collateral requirements. | Reworded. Interest expense $5.10bn in four quarters to August 2026. |
| Dilution | Conversion of mandatory convertible preferred stock and at the market sales dilute common stockholders; common stock ranks junior to preferred. | New. 141m shares sold in Q1 FY2027; diluted shares 3.00bn against 2.91bn. |
| Depreciation and recoverability | Note 1 of 10-K states that returns on infrastructure investments depend on customer demand and may require evaluation of recoverability of long lived assets. | Property, plant and equipment $127.8bn; server useful life of six years. |
| Litigation | Securities class action on statements about cloud infrastructure business filed 3 February 2026 in Delaware; amended complaint 14 July 2026. Netherlands privacy class action remanded on 17 July 2026. | New in FY2026. Oracle expects no material impact. |
9 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity
Three cases cover FY2028 to FY2030. All start from FY2027 revenue of $90.0bn and adjusted EPS of $8.10, both company guidance. Base case FY2028 revenue of $129.8bn equals analyst consensus of $129.8bn; its cloud infrastructure revenue for FY2029 and FY2030 follows path Oracle filed in September 2025. Best case reaches cloud infrastructure revenue of $166bn and total revenue of $224bn in FY2030, against targets of $166bn and $225bn management gave in October 2025. Worst case holds FY2030 cloud infrastructure revenue at $85bn, 3.8 times $22.1bn of latest four quarters and 59% of filed path, with adjusted operating margin of 30%. Value per share is adjusted EPS times a stated multiple. Each case is an estimate under assumptions in table below.
| Table 18. Scenario assumptions and results, FY2028 to FY2030 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst case | Base case | Best case | ||||||||
| FY2027E | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2030 | |
| Assumptions | ||||||||||
| Cloud infrastructure revenue, $bn | 39.5 | 60.0 | 75.0 | 85.0 | 77.9 | 114.0 | 144.0 | 85.0 | 125.0 | 166.0 |
| Cloud applications revenue growth | 10% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Software revenue growth | (3%) | (5%) | (5%) | (5%) | (3%) | (3%) | (3%) | (1%) | (1%) | (1%) |
| Hardware and services revenue growth | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Adjusted operating margin | n/a | 35.0% | 32.0% | 30.0% | 38.0% | 37.0% | 36.0% | 39.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Net interest and other cost, $bn | n/a | 8.0 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.0 |
| Diluted shares, bn | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 3.13 | 3.17 | 3.08 | 3.10 | 3.12 |
| Capital expenditures, $bn | 92.5 | 60 | 40 | 30 | 85 | 75 | 65 | 95 | 90 | 85 |
| Depreciation, $bn | n/a | 24 | 28 | 30 | 25 | 33 | 40 | 26 | 35 | 44 |
| Results | ||||||||||
| Revenue, $bn | 90.0 | 110.4 | 125.4 | 135.5 | 129.8 | 167.4 | 199.1 | 137.9 | 180.5 | 224.4 |
| Revenue growth | 33.6% | 22.7% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 44.2% | 29.0% | 19.0% | 53.2% | 30.9% | 24.3% |
| Cloud infrastructure share of revenue | 44% | 54% | 60% | 63% | 60% | 68% | 72% | 62% | 69% | 74% |
| Adjusted operating income, $bn | n/a | 38.6 | 40.1 | 40.6 | 49.3 | 61.9 | 71.7 | 53.8 | 72.2 | 89.8 |
| Adjusted EPS, $ | 8.10 | 7.65 | 7.32 | 7.05 | 10.95 | 13.75 | 15.89 | 12.33 | 16.82 | 21.22 |
| EPS under GAAP, $ | 6.66 | 6.12 | 5.77 | 5.45 | 9.36 | 12.11 | 14.20 | 10.73 | 15.17 | 19.51 |
| Free cash flow per share, $ | n/a | (3.42) | 3.87 | 7.24 | (8.22) | 0.52 | 8.20 | (9.89) | (0.72) | 8.29 |
| Price to earnings multiple applied, times | 12 | 17 | 22 | |||||||
| Implied value per share, $ | 142.48 | 85 | 270 | 467 | ||||||
Critical factors behind best case
| Table 19. Critical factors, evidence and best case assumption | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Factor | Evidence in filings and company statements | Best case assumes | Indicator |
| Backlog conversion | RPO of $664bn schedules $86bn within 12 months and about $123bn a year in months 13 to 36 (10-Q). Revenue growth was 20.6% and 29.6% in last two quarters against guidance of 19% to 21% and 27% to 29%. | Cloud infrastructure revenue of $166bn in FY2030 against $22.1bn in latest four quarters | RPO and share due within 12 months each quarter |
| Capacity delivery | 850MW delivered in Q1 FY2027 against more than 1.2GW in all of FY2026 (8-K exhibit; calls). 10-K lists sites, power, GPUs and third party developers as dependencies. | Capacity arrives on contracted dates | MW delivered and capital expenditures each quarter |
| Customer credit | 10-K states certain OCI offerings are concentrated among a number of large customers, some highly leveraged. Prepaid and customer supplied hardware cover $75bn of AI contracts (8-K exhibit). | Customers pay as contracted | Deferred revenues; customer prepayments in cash flow |
| Margin | Adjusted operating margin was 42.9% in FY2026 and 42.1% in Q1 FY2027. Management put gross margin on AI infrastructure at 30% to 40% (meeting, October 2025). | Adjusted operating margin of 40% in FY2030 with cloud infrastructure at 74% of revenue | Cloud and software segment margin in each 10-Q |
| Funding cost | Borrowings of $125.3bn; FY2026 notes carry coupons of 4.45% to 6.85%. Interest expense was $1.43bn in Q1 FY2027. | Net interest and other cost of $8.0bn in FY2030 | Debt issued, coupons and rating actions |
| Share count | Diluted shares rose from 2.91bn to 3.00bn in a year; 3.02bn shares were outstanding at 31 August 2026. Preferred stock converts into 25m to 31m common shares on 15 January 2029 (10-K). | 3.12bn diluted shares in FY2030 | Shares outstanding on 10-Q cover |
Sensitivity of base case
| Table 20. Base case FY2030 adjusted EPS of $15.89 and free cash flow per share of $8.20: effect of each input | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Input and range | At low end, $ | At high end, $ | Change from base, $ |
| OCI revenue, 20% lower or higher | 13.24 | 18.54 | (2.65) to 2.65 |
| Adjusted operating margin, 4 points lower or higher | 13.85 | 17.92 | (2.04) to 2.04 |
| Net interest cost, $3bn higher or lower | 15.12 | 16.66 | (0.77) to 0.77 |
| Diluted shares, 5% higher or lower | 15.13 | 16.72 | (0.76) to 0.84 |
| Tax rate, 22% to 16% | 15.30 | 16.48 | (0.59) to 0.59 |
| Capital expenditures, $15bn higher or lower (free cash flow per share) | 3.47 | 12.94 | (4.73) to 4.73 |
Alternative views
- Range of analyst estimates: Consensus for FY2028 is revenue of $129.8bn and EPS of $10.78 within a range of $7.36 to $14.05; worst and best cases give $7.65 and $12.33. Average price target of 43 analysts is $238 within $110 to $400.
- Management view: Management states that demand for AI capacity exceeds supply, that most of its five year cloud infrastructure forecast is already in RPO, and that structuring of contracts booked in Q1 FY2027 leaves its plans to raise capital unchanged (8-K exhibit). Its FY2030 targets are $225bn of revenue and adjusted EPS of $21; best case gives $224bn and $21.22.
- Balance sheet: Borrowings, lease liabilities and leases yet to start total $457bn against $664bn of RPO. Base case free cash flow per share is ($8.22) in FY2028 and $8.20 in FY2030; with capital expenditures $15bn higher in FY2030 it is $3.47.
- Valuation: Shares trade at 17.6 times FY2027 adjusted EPS guidance and 21.4 times this report's FY2027 estimate of EPS under GAAP. Base case applies 17 times to FY2030 adjusted EPS; at 13 times implied value is $207 and at 21 times $334.
Sources
SEC filings, retrieved through sec-api.io: 10-K FY2022 0001564590-22-023675, 10-K FY2023 0000950170-23-028914, 10-K FY2024 0000950170-24-075605, 10-K FY2025 0000950170-25-087926, 10-K FY2026 0001193125-26-277521, 10-Q Q1 FY2024 0000950170-23-047713, 10-Q Q2 FY2024 0000950170-23-069682, 10-Q Q3 FY2024 0000950170-24-029904, 10-Q Q1 FY2025 0000950170-24-104905, 10-Q Q2 FY2025 0000950170-24-134973, 10-Q Q3 FY2025 0000950170-25-037143, 10-Q Q1 FY2026 0001193125-25-200095, 10-Q Q2 FY2026 0001193125-25-315925, 10-Q Q3 FY2026 0001193125-26-101045, 10-Q Q1 FY2027 0001193125-26-389274. Forms 8-K, DEF 14A, 13F, Schedule 13G/A (0000102909-26-001995) and Forms 4 as cited in tables. Peer filings: Microsoft 10-K 0001193125-26-323660 and 10-Q 0001193125-26-191507; Amazon 10-K 0001018724-26-000004 and 10-Q 0001018724-26-000026; Alphabet 10-K 0001652044-26-000018 and 10-Q 0001652044-26-000071; CoreWeave 10-K 0001769628-26-000104 and 10-Q 0001769628-26-000366; Salesforce 10-K 0001108524-26-000060 and 10-Q 0001108524-26-000190; IBM 10-K 0000051143-26-000010 and 10-Q 0000051143-26-000078; SAP 20-F 0001104659-26-020058 and 6-K 0001104659-26-087251.
Company statements outside SEC filings: Earnings calls of 10 December 2025, 10 June 2026 and 10 September 2026 from public transcripts and press summaries, Q1 FY2027 earnings slides from company investor site, and financial analyst meeting of 16 October 2025 as reported in press.
