Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Financial Analysis
Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.
Q4 FY2026 revenue was $54.23bn, 379% above Q4 FY2025, at a gross margin of 86.8%. FY2026 free cash flow was $62.3bn and net cash was $68.3bn at 3 September 2026: Four years of 10-K data, FY2026 from Form 8-K of 30 September 2026, quarterly filings to 28 May 2026, scenarios to FY2029.
Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2022 to FY2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 FY2024 to Q3 FY2026, the Forms 8-K filed from October 2025 to September 2026 and their quarterly earnings exhibits 99.1, the proxy statement of November 2025, Schedules 13G and Forms 4 on the record for central index key 723125, together with the comparable filings of three peers. Accession numbers for every filing used appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are closing prices of 6 October 2026.
Share price $1,045.38 52 week range $179.61 to $1,255.00 | Market value $1.18tn Net cash $68.3bn at 3 September 2026 | Price to earnings 14.1x FY2026 EPS $74.33; 5.9x consensus FY2027 EPS | Q4 FY2026 revenue $54.23bn $11.32bn in Q4 FY2025; $41.46bn in Q3 FY2026 | Gross margin 86.8% 44.7% in Q4 FY2025; (9.1%) in FY2023 | Free cash flow $62.28bn FY2026, 46.8% of revenue; $33.2bn in Q4 |
- Stock: Shares closed at $1,045.38 on 6 October 2026, 17% below 52 week high of $1,255.00 and 5.8 times 52 week low of $179.61. Price equals 14.1 times FY2026 EPS of $74.33 and 5.9 times analyst consensus for FY2027 adjusted EPS of $176.42.
- Latest quarter: Q4 FY2026 revenue was $54.23bn, up 31% on Q3 FY2026 and 379% on Q4 FY2025. Operating income was $43.75bn, 80.7% of revenue, and EPS was $32.87 against $2.83. Quarter had 14 weeks.
- Price and volume: Filings attribute growth mainly to selling prices. In nine months to 28 May 2026 prices of DRAM (dynamic random access memory, working memory of computers and phones) rose about 140% and DRAM bit shipments (volume sold, measured in bits of memory capacity) about 30% against prior year; prices of NAND (flash memory used for data storage) rose about 130% and bits by a low 20% range (10-Q).
- Guidance: Q1 FY2027 guidance on adjusted basis is revenue of $61.5bn plus or minus $1.5bn, gross margin of about 86.25% and adjusted EPS of $38.15 plus or minus $1.00. Reported revenue exceeded top of guided range in each quarter of FY2026.
- Customer agreements: Noncurrent customer contract liabilities were $12.90bn at 3 September 2026 against $142m a year earlier, after $12.75bn of deposits received under take or pay supply agreements, in which a customer pays for a committed volume even if it takes less.
- Investment: Capital expenditures were $30.71bn in FY2026 against $15.86bn; government incentive proceeds were $3.32bn. Management put capital expenditures net of incentives at about $25bn for first half of FY2027 (company remarks, 30 September 2026).
- Balance sheet: Debt fell from $14.58bn to $5.18bn in FY2026; cash and investments rose from $11.94bn to $73.45bn. Buybacks were $650m and dividends $610m, 2.0% of free cash flow.
- Scenarios: FY2029 EPS is $29.09 in worst case, $165.85 in base case and $265.67 in best case. At 12, 6 and 8 times earnings, undiscounted implied value per share is $349, $995 and $2,125. Earnings multiple and revenue growth move base case value most.
1 Revenue & Business Model
Micron designs and manufactures DRAM, NAND and NOR memory (NOR is flash memory that stores program code in cars and industrial devices), most of it in its own factories in Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and United States. DRAM supplied 76% of FY2026 revenue and NAND 24%. Four business units report results: Cloud Memory, which sells to large cloud customers and sells high bandwidth memory (HBM, stacked DRAM placed next to AI processors) to all data center customers, supplied 32% of FY2026 revenue; Core Data Center 28%; Mobile and Client 27%; Automotive and Embedded 12%. FY2025 10-K reports about 53,000 employees, one customer at 17% of revenue and data center customers at about one half of revenue.
Core Data Center revenue rose from $1.58bn in Q4 FY2025 to $18.00bn in Q4 FY2026, and Cloud Memory from $4.54bn to $16.28bn. Customers with headquarters in mainland China and Hong Kong supplied 10.1% of FY2025 revenue against 16.2% in FY2023; customers based in United States supplied 64.5%. About 80% of FY2025 revenue came from products shipped to locations outside United States (10-K Item 1A). Revenue by customer headquarters for FY2026 will be disclosed in FY2026 10-K.
| Table 1. Price and bit shipment increases against prior quarter, as disclosed | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter | DRAM revenue, $bn | DRAM price | DRAM bits | NAND revenue, $bn | NAND price | NAND bits |
| Q1 FY2026 | 10.81 | About 20% | n/a | 2.74 | Mid teens % | Mid to high single digit % |
| Q2 FY2026 | 18.77 | Mid 60% range | Mid single digit % | 5.00 | High 70% range | Low single digit % |
| Q3 FY2026 | 31.33 | Low 60% range | Low single digit % | 9.94 | Mid 80% range | Mid single digit % |
| Q4 FY2026 | 39.8 | High teens % | Mid single digit % | 14.1 | About 30% | About 10% |
| Table 2. Revenue by customer headquarters, $bn and share of revenue | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Region | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
| United States | 7.81 (50%) | 13.17 (52%) | 24.11 (65%) |
| Taiwan | 2.70 (17%) | 4.71 (19%) | 5.67 (15%) |
| Mainland China | 2.18 (14%) | 3.05 (12%) | 2.64 (7%) |
| Hong Kong | 0.34 (2%) | 1.07 (4%) | 1.14 (3%) |
| Other Asia Pacific | 0.75 (5%) | 1.33 (5%) | 1.91 (5%) |
| Japan | 0.99 (6%) | 0.84 (3%) | 0.90 (2%) |
| Europe | 0.68 (4%) | 0.82 (3%) | 0.63 (2%) |
| Other | 0.10 (1%) | 0.13 (1%) | 0.38 (1%) |
| Table 3. Business unit results by quarter, $bn | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business unit line | Q1 FY2025 | Q2 FY2025 | Q3 FY2025 | Q4 FY2025 | Q1 FY2026 | Q2 FY2026 | Q3 FY2026 | Q4 FY2026 |
| Cloud Memory revenue | 2.65 | 2.95 | 3.39 | 4.54 | 5.28 | 7.75 | 13.77 | 16.28 |
| Cloud Memory operating margin | 40% | 45% | 46% | 48% | 55% | 66% | 78% | 76% |
| Core Data Center revenue | 2.29 | 1.83 | 1.53 | 1.58 | 2.38 | 5.69 | 11.52 | 18.00 |
| Core Data Center operating margin | 38% | 33% | 20% | 25% | 37% | 67% | 83% | 85% |
| Mobile and Client revenue | 2.61 | 2.24 | 3.26 | 3.76 | 4.26 | 7.71 | 11.52 | 13.11 |
| Mobile and Client operating margin | 15% | 1% | 15% | 29% | 47% | 76% | 86% | 88% |
| Automotive and Embedded revenue | 1.16 | 1.03 | 1.13 | 1.43 | 1.72 | 2.71 | 4.63 | 6.82 |
| Automotive and Embedded operating margin | 7% | 6% | 11% | 20% | 36% | 62% | 75% | 79% |
| Total revenue | 8.71 | 8.05 | 9.30 | 11.32 | 13.64 | 23.86 | 41.46 | 54.23 |
| Revenue growth against prior year | 84.3% | 38.3% | 36.6% | 46.0% | 56.7% | 196.3% | 345.7% | 379.3% |
| DRAM share of revenue | 73% | 76% | 76% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 76% | 73% |
2 Financial Analysis & Ratios
Gross margin was 86.8% in Q4 FY2026 against 84.6% in Q3 FY2026 and 44.7% in Q4 FY2025; operating margin was 80.7% against 32.3%. Cost of goods sold rose 14% in FY2026 while revenue rose 256%. Q4 operating expenses of $3.30bn include a patent license charge of $500m, and selling, general and administrative expense rose from $407m in Q3 to $859m. Effective tax rate was 14.8% in FY2026 against 11.6%; 10-Q attributes increase to 15% minimum tax in Singapore under Pillar Two, global minimum tax rules of OECD.
| Table 4. What changed: Q4 FY2026 and FY2026 against prior year, $bn | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Q4 FY2026 | Q4 FY2025 | Change | FY2026 | FY2025 | Change |
| Revenue | 54.23 | 11.32 | 379.3% | 133.19 | 37.38 | 256.3% |
| DRAM | 39.8 | 9.0 | 343% | 100.7 | 28.6 | 252% |
| NAND | 14.1 | 2.3 | 526% | 31.8 | 8.5 | 274% |
| Cloud Memory | 16.28 | 4.54 | 258.4% | 43.09 | 13.52 | 218.6% |
| Core Data Center | 18.00 | 1.58 | 1,041.5% | 37.59 | 7.23 | 420.0% |
| Mobile and Client | 13.11 | 3.76 | 248.8% | 36.60 | 11.86 | 208.6% |
| Automotive and Embedded | 6.82 | 1.43 | 375.9% | 15.89 | 4.75 | 234.2% |
| Gross margin | 47.05 | 5.05 | 830.9% | 107.50 | 14.87 | 622.8% |
| R&D expense | 1.91 | 1.05 | 82.7% | 5.65 | 3.80 | 48.8% |
| Selling, general and administrative | 0.86 | 0.31 | 173.6% | 1.95 | 1.21 | 61.6% |
| Operating income | 43.75 | 3.65 | 1,097.3% | 99.34 | 9.77 | 916.8% |
| Net income | 37.70 | 3.20 | 1,077.8% | 84.97 | 8.54 | 895.1% |
| Diluted EPS, $ | 32.87 | 2.83 | 1,061.5% | 74.33 | 7.59 | 879.3% |
| Depreciation and amortization | 2.64 | 2.15 | 22.9% | 9.50 | 8.35 | 13.8% |
| Operating cash flow | 43.97 | 5.73 | 667.4% | 89.68 | 17.53 | 411.7% |
| Capital expenditures | 11.11 | 5.66 | 96.4% | 30.71 | 15.86 | 93.7% |
| Government incentive proceeds | 0.33 | 0.71 | (54.0%) | 3.32 | 2.01 | 65.4% |
| Free cash flow | 33.19 | 0.78 | 4,138.8% | 62.28 | 3.67 | 1,595.6% |
| Gross margin, % of revenue | 86.8% | 44.7% | 42.1 pts | 80.7% | 39.8% | 40.9 pts |
| Operating margin | 80.7% | 32.3% | 48.4 pts | 74.6% | 26.1% | 48.5 pts |
| Effective tax rate | 14.9% | 11.8% | 3.1 pts | 14.8% | 11.6% | 3.2 pts |
Capital expenditures were 23.1% of revenue in FY2026 against 42.4% in FY2025 and 49.4% in FY2023, when revenue was $15.5bn. Government incentive proceeds were $3.32bn, 10.8% of capital expenditures. Incentives, which include grants and tax credits under CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 (CHIPS Act, a US law that funds domestic chip factories), had reduced carrying value of property, plant and equipment by $5.04bn to end of FY2025 and added $588m to FY2025 operating income (10-K). Company's own measure, adjusted free cash flow, was $62.31bn in FY2026; it also counts $29m of proceeds from asset sales. Receivables rose by $26.93bn to $36.20bn, 101 days of FY2026 revenue.
| Table 5. Five year financial summary, $bn | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal year | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
| Revenue | 30.76 | 15.54 | 25.11 | 37.38 | 133.19 |
| DRAM revenue | 22.39 | 10.98 | 17.60 | 28.58 | 100.71 |
| NAND revenue | 7.81 | 4.21 | 7.23 | 8.50 | 31.78 |
| Gross margin | 13.90 | (1.42) | 5.61 | 14.87 | 107.50 |
| R&D expense | 3.12 | 3.11 | 3.43 | 3.80 | 5.65 |
| Operating income | 9.70 | (5.75) | 1.30 | 9.77 | 99.34 |
| Net income | 8.69 | (5.83) | 0.78 | 8.54 | 84.97 |
| Diluted EPS, $ | 7.75 | (5.34) | 0.70 | 7.59 | 74.33 |
| Dividends declared per share, $ | 0.315 | 0.460 | 0.460 | 0.460 | 0.530 |
| Depreciation and amortization | 7.12 | 7.76 | 7.78 | 8.35 | 9.50 |
| Operating cash flow | 15.18 | 1.56 | 8.51 | 17.53 | 89.68 |
| Capital expenditures | 12.07 | 7.68 | 8.39 | 15.86 | 30.71 |
| Government incentive proceeds | 0.12 | 0.71 | 0.32 | 2.01 | 3.32 |
| Free cash flow | 3.23 | (5.41) | 0.44 | 3.67 | 62.28 |
| Share repurchases under program | 2.43 | 0.43 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Dividends paid | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| Cash and investments | 10.98 | 10.44 | 9.15 | 11.94 | 73.45 |
| Receivables | 5.13 | 2.44 | 6.62 | 9.27 | 36.20 |
| Inventories | 6.66 | 8.39 | 8.88 | 8.36 | 10.37 |
| Property, plant and equipment, net | 38.55 | 37.93 | 39.75 | 46.59 | 63.31 |
| Total assets | 66.28 | 64.25 | 69.42 | 82.80 | 195.89 |
| Total debt | 6.91 | 13.33 | 13.40 | 14.58 | 5.18 |
| Shareholders' equity | 49.91 | 44.12 | 45.13 | 54.17 | 138.38 |
| Table 6. Ratio analysis | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ratio | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
| Growth | |||||
| Revenue growth | 11.0% | (49.5%) | 61.6% | 48.9% | 256.3% |
| Margin | |||||
| Gross margin | 45.2% | (9.1%) | 22.4% | 39.8% | 80.7% |
| Operating margin | 31.5% | (37.0%) | 5.2% | 26.1% | 74.6% |
| Net margin | 28.2% | (37.5%) | 3.1% | 22.8% | 63.8% |
| R&D to revenue | 10.1% | 20.0% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 4.2% |
| Depreciation and amortization to revenue | 23.1% | 49.9% | 31.0% | 22.3% | 7.1% |
| Effective tax rate | 9.3% | (3.1%) | 36.4% | 11.6% | 14.8% |
| Return | |||||
| Return on average equity | 18.5% | (12.4%) | 1.7% | 17.2% | 88.3% |
| Operating income to average debt plus equity | 18.0% | (10.1%) | 2.2% | 15.4% | 93.6% |
| Cash | |||||
| Operating cash flow margin | 49.4% | 10.0% | 33.9% | 46.9% | 67.3% |
| Free cash flow margin | 10.5% | (34.8%) | 1.7% | 9.8% | 46.8% |
| Free cash flow per share, $ | 2.88 | (4.95) | 0.39 | 3.26 | 54.49 |
| Capital expenditures to revenue | 39.2% | 49.4% | 33.4% | 42.4% | 23.1% |
| Government incentive proceeds to capital expenditures | 1.0% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 12.6% | 10.8% |
| Buybacks and dividends to free cash flow | 90% | n/a | 186% | 14% | 2% |
| Leverage and liquidity | |||||
| Debt to equity, times | 0.14 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 0.04 |
| Net debt to EBITDA, times | (0.24) | 1.44 | 0.47 | 0.15 | (0.63) |
| Operating income to interest expense, times | 51.3 | n/a | 2.3 | 20.5 | 937.2 |
| Current ratio, times | 2.89 | 4.46 | 2.64 | 2.52 | 3.31 |
| Efficiency | |||||
| Days of inventory | 144 | 180 | 166 | 135 | 150 |
| Receivables in days of revenue | 61 | 57 | 96 | 90 | 101 |
| Revenue to average total assets, times | 0.49 | 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 0.96 |
| Revenue to average net property, plant and equipment, times | 0.86 | 0.41 | 0.65 | 0.87 | 2.42 |
3 MD&A & Management Commentary
10-Q for Q3 FY2026 states that demand for memory from AI in data centers is growing faster than company and industry can add supply, and that this has led to supply allocation decisions that may affect some customers and end markets. Same filing describes strategic customer agreements: take or pay contracts with binding volumes over several years, most with fixed prices or a floor and a ceiling; largest agreements set ceiling near market price of Q2 of calendar 2026.
| Table 7. Guidance against reported results, adjusted basis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter | Revenue guidance, $bn | Reported | Gross margin guidance | Reported | EPS guidance, $ | Reported |
| Q1 FY2026 | 12.50 ± 0.30 | 13.64 | 51.5% ± 1.0 | 56.8% | 3.75 ± 0.15 | 4.78 |
| Q2 FY2026 | 18.70 ± 0.40 | 23.86 | 68.0% ± 1.0 | 74.9% | 8.42 ± 0.20 | 12.20 |
| Q3 FY2026 | 33.50 ± 0.75 | 41.46 | About 81% | 84.9% | 19.15 ± 0.40 | 25.11 |
| Q4 FY2026 | 50.0 ± 1.0 | 54.23 | About 86% | 87.0% | 31.00 ± 1.00 | 33.42 |
| Q1 FY2027 | 61.5 ± 1.5 | n/a | About 86.25% | n/a | 38.15 ± 1.00 | n/a |
Adjusted EPS exceeded top of guided range by $0.88 in Q1, $3.58 in Q2, $5.56 in Q3 and $1.42 in Q4 FY2026. On 30 September 2026 management said HBM revenue grew faster than company revenue in Q4, that agreements cover most of calendar 2027 HBM supply at higher prices, and that it expects sequential revenue growth in each quarter of FY2027 (remarks).
| Table 8. Capital and supply framework stated by management | |
|---|---|
| Item | Statement |
| Capital expenditures | FY2026 guidance net of incentives rose from about $20bn (December 2025) to above $25bn (March 2026) and about $27bn (June 2026); actual $27.37bn. About $11.5bn in Q1 FY2027 and about $25bn in first half, second half higher (remarks) |
| New capacity | Idaho first fab: wafer output in middle of calendar 2027; second Idaho fab late 2028; New York from 2030; Tongluo, Taiwan fab bought for $1.8bn in March 2026 (10-Q) |
| CHIPS Act | Direct funding of up to $6.4bn; 35% investment tax credit; New York State term sheet of up to $5.5bn (10-Q) |
| HBM | HBM4, next HBM generation, in ramp; custom HBM4E designed with Nvidia; growth stated in relative terms only (remarks) |
| Supply and demand | Industry DRAM bit shipments to grow by mid 20s % in calendar 2026 and low 20s % in 2027 and 2028; NAND low 20s % then mid 20s % (remarks) |
| Capital return | Buybacks limited by CHIPS Act terms for two years from 9 December 2024 (10-K); management intends to raise returns after that date (remarks) |
| Costs and tax | Operating expenses to rise by about $2.5bn in FY2027; tax rate about 15.5% (remarks) |
4 Sector & Competitor Analysis
World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS), an industry body that publishes chip sales reported by its member companies, reports memory chip sales of $230.0bn in calendar 2025, up 39.0%, and forecasts $803.9bn for 2026, up 249.5%, and $1.06tn for 2027, up 32.1% (release of 2 June 2026). Memory is 53% of WSTS forecast for whole semiconductor market of $1.51tn in 2026, against 26% in 2024. Micron revenue grew 256% in four quarters to 3 September 2026; SK hynix grew 145% in four quarters to 30 June 2026 and Sandisk 175% in its year to 3 July 2026.
| Table 9. Micron against six memory and storage peers | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Fiscal year end | Revenue | Growth | Growth, latest four quarters | Gross margin | Operating margin | R&D to revenue | Capital expenditures to revenue | Free cash flow margin | Days of inventory | Market value | Forward P/E |
| Micron | Sep 2026 | $133.2bn | 256.3% | 256.3% | 80.7% | 74.6% | 4.2% | 23.1% | 44.3% | 150 | $1.18tn | 5.9 |
| SK hynix | Dec 2025 | KRW 97.15tn | 46.8% | 145.0% | n/a | 48.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 4.5 |
| Samsung | Dec 2025 | KRW 333.60tn | n/a | n/a | n/a | 13.1% | 11.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Kioxia | Mar 2026 | JPY 2.34tn | 37.0% | n/a | n/a | 37.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Sandisk | Jul 2026 | $20.2bn | 175.3% | 175.3% | 71.5% | 61.2% | 6.6% | 0.9% | 56.8% | 173 | $243bn | 7.8 |
| Western Digital | Jul 2026 | $12.9bn | 35.7% | 35.7% | 48.9% | 34.5% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 27.2% | 85 | $154bn | 22.0 |
| Seagate | Jul 2026 | $12.2bn | 34.1% | 34.1% | 45.6% | 33.6% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 25.5% | 88 | $182bn | 24.8 |
| Table 10. Cycle indicators disclosed by Micron and peers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Indicator | Latest | Comparison | Source |
| Micron | Gross margin | 86.8% in Q4 FY2026 | 44.7% in Q4 FY2025 | 8-K 0000723125-26-000018 |
| SK hynix | Operating margin | 76% in Q2 2026 | 41% in Q2 2025 | Company release, July 2026 |
| Samsung Electronics | Device Solutions division | Revenue KRW 127.5tn, operating profit KRW 89.2tn in Q2 2026 | Company release, July 2026 | |
| Kioxia | Revenue growth against prior year | 415.5% in quarter to 30 June 2026 | Press report of company results | |
| Sandisk | Gross margin | 71.5% in year to 3 July 2026 | 30.1% in prior year | 10-K 0001628280-26-057406 |
Micron operating margin of 74.6% in FY2026 compares with 61.2% at Sandisk and 34.5% at Western Digital in their latest fiscal years; its capital expenditures of 23.1% of revenue compare with 0.9% at Sandisk and 4.7% at Seagate. A share bought at end of October 2021 was worth 1,578 at end of September 2026 on a base of 100, dividends included, against 366 for PHLX Semiconductor index, which excludes dividends.
5 Material Events & Contracts
| Table 11. Form 8-K filings, 7 October 2025 to 6 October 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filed | Item | Event | Accession number |
| 21 Oct 2025 | 5.02 | Directors Richard Beyer and Mary Pat McCarthy to retire at annual meeting | 0001104659-25-101237 |
| 17 Dec 2025 | 2.02 | Q1 FY2026 revenue $13.64bn, adjusted EPS $4.78. Q2 guidance: revenue $18.7bn, adjusted EPS $8.42 | 0000723125-25-000044 |
| 21 Jan 2026 | 5.03, 5.07 | Annual meeting results; charter amended to limit officer liability under Delaware law | 0001104659-26-005366 |
| 18 Mar 2026 | 2.02 | Q2 FY2026 revenue $23.86bn, adjusted EPS $12.20. Quarterly dividend raised from $0.115 to $0.15 | 0000723125-26-000004 |
| 25 Mar 2026 | 8.01 | Cash tender offers for six series of senior notes due 2031 to 2035; priced 31 March; $4.32bn of principal repaid on 3 April 2026 (10-Q) | 0001104659-26-034174 |
| 9 Jun 2026 | 5.02 | Alexis Black Bjorlin appointed director; board has nine members | 0001104659-26-071845 |
| 24 Jun 2026 | 2.02 | Q3 FY2026 revenue $41.46bn, adjusted EPS $25.11. Q4 guidance: revenue $50.0bn, adjusted EPS $31.00 | 0000723125-26-000013 |
| 26 Aug 2026 | 5.02 | Manish Bhatia named president and chief operating officer; Scott DeBoer president and chief technology and products officer | 0001104659-26-101067 |
| 30 Sep 2026 | 2.02 | Q4 FY2026 revenue $54.23bn, adjusted EPS $33.42. Q1 FY2027 guidance: revenue $61.5bn, adjusted EPS $38.15 | 0000723125-26-000018 |
| Table 12. Strategic customer agreements as filed and as stated | |
|---|---|
| Item | Terms |
| Structure | Take or pay; binding volumes over several years; most priced at fixed prices or within a floor and a ceiling (10-Q) |
| Deposits | $22bn of deposits and related commitments for agreements concluded to 24 June 2026, about $18bn in cash (10-Q); $12.75bn received in FY2026 (8-K); $32bn of commitments stated on 30 September 2026 (remarks) |
| Contracted revenue | Remaining performance obligations (contracted revenue yet to be recognized) of about $5bn at 28 May 2026 on minimum volumes and prices (10-Q); about $100bn stated on 24 June 2026 and about $150bn on 30 September 2026 (remarks) |
| Number and reach | 26 agreements, 10 signed in Q4 FY2026, covering over 35% of projected supply through 2030; 75% have defined pricing; some run into 2031 (remarks) |
| Margin statement | 10-Q states that agreements with price bands are expected, at floor prices, to yield gross margins well above peak quarterly margins of any past cycle |
| Table 13. Material contracts and commitments | |
|---|---|
| Contract | Terms as filed |
| Debt | $5.18bn at 3 September 2026, of which $491m current. $8.51bn of principal prepaid in nine months to 28 May 2026 at a loss of $500m. Revolving credit facility of $2.0bn, reduced from $3.5bn, undrawn |
| Purchase obligations | $5.5bn with terms over one year at 28 August 2025; $2.93bn for property, plant and equipment at 28 May 2026 |
| CHIPS Act agreements | Up to $6.1bn for fabs in Idaho and New York and $275m for Virginia, paid on milestones; clawback and sharing of excess cash flow apply |
| Other incentives | Japan: additional commitment of up to JPY 500bn (about $3.4bn) for Hiroshima. India: 70% of cost of Gujarat facility. Commitments subject to conditions were $7.91bn at 28 August 2025 |
| Buyback and dividend | $10bn authorized; $7.84bn used to 28 May 2026; 2.5m shares bought for $650m in FY2026. Dividend $0.15 a quarter, next payment 29 October 2026 |
6 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting
1.129bn common shares were outstanding at 17 June 2026; each carries one vote. All eight director nominees were elected on 15 January 2026 with 781.2m to 811.4m votes for. Chief executive total pay for FY2025 was $30.9m, 529 times median employee pay of $58,461 (proxy statement, Form DEF 14A).
| Table 14. 2026 annual meeting: votes on proposals, m shares | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proposal | Proponent | For | Against | For, % of votes cast |
| Advisory vote on executive pay | Board | 770.4 | 39.3 | 95.1% |
| Charter amendment on officer exculpation | Board | 728.2 | 83.9 | 89.7% |
| Ratify PricewaterhouseCoopers for FY2026 | Board | 857.6 | 58.1 | 93.7% |
| Amend special meeting rights | Stockholder | 348.7 | 461.8 | 43.0% |
| Table 15. Holders reporting on Schedule 13G | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holder | Position date | Shares, m | % of class | Source |
| Vanguard Capital Management | 31 March 2026 | 84.3 | 7.47% | 0002100119-26-000795 |
| Capital World Investors | 31 March 2026 | 42.2 | 3.7% | 0001422849-26-000099 |
| Capital World Investors | 31 December 2025 | 58.5 | 5.2% | 0001422849-26-000035 |
| Capital World Investors | 30 June 2025 | 71.0 | 6.3% | 0001422849-25-000059 |
7 Insider Activity
Twelve officers and directors sold 723,992 shares for about $373.9m in open market between 6 October 2025 and 6 October 2026. 20 of 33 Forms 4 with sales are marked as made under Rule 10b5-1 plans, which fix sale terms in advance, covering 606,551 shares. One Form 4 reports an open market purchase: director Teyin Mark Liu bought 23,200 shares for about $7.8m on 13 and 14 January 2026.
| Table 16. Open market sales by officers and directors, 12 months to 6 October 2026 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Person | Role | Shares sold | Proceeds, $m | Average price, $ | Shares sold under 10b5-1 plans | Dates |
| Sanjay Mehrotra | Chairman and chief executive | 280,000 | 200.0 | 714.15 | 280,000 | 20 Oct 2025 to 21 Aug 2026 |
| April Arnzen | Chief people officer | 95,000 | 61.4 | 646.42 | 95,000 | 22 Dec 2025 to 1 Jul 2026 |
| Sumit Sadana | Chief business officer to August 2026 | 64,000 | 34.9 | 544.91 | 0 | 2 Feb 2026 to 18 Aug 2026 |
| Mark Murphy | Chief financial officer | 126,000 | 28.4 | 225.31 | 126,000 | 30 Oct 2025 |
| Scott DeBoer | President and chief technology and products officer | 82,000 | 18.3 | 222.81 | 82,000 | 27 Oct 2025 |
| Manish Bhatia | President and chief operating officer | 26,623 | 10.4 | 391.04 | 0 | 22 Jan 2026 |
| Six other officers and directors | 50,369 | 20.6 | 408.26 | 23,551 | 16 Oct 2025 to 23 Jul 2026 | |
| Total | 723,992 | 373.9 | 516.41 | 606,551 | ||
8 Risk Factors
10-Q for Q3 FY2026 restates risk factors of FY2025 10-K with three changes of substance, shown in last column. Table lists disclosed risks with figures from filings.
| Table 17. Disclosed risks and changes since FY2025 10-K | ||
|---|---|---|
| Risk | Disclosure with figures | Change in FY2026 filings |
| Selling prices | Gross margin was (9.1%) in FY2023 and 80.7% in FY2026. 10-K states that a 5% fall in selling prices would have changed net realizable value of inventory by about $750m at 28 August 2025 | 10-Q MD&A describes supply allocation among customers |
| Customer concentration | One customer supplied 17% of FY2025 revenue and top ten customers over half; data center customers about one half (10-K) | Receivables of $36.2bn at 3 September 2026 |
| China | Customers based in mainland China and Hong Kong supplied 10.1% of FY2025 revenue. Since May 2023 operators of critical information infrastructure in China may not buy Micron products (10-K) | Management expects a single digit % share in FY2027 (remarks) |
| Competition | 10-Q names Samsung, SK hynix, Kioxia, Sandisk, ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) and Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC), two Chinese memory makers, and state support for Chinese makers | No change |
| Capacity expansion | Capital expenditures of $30.7bn in FY2026; new fabs in Idaho, New York, Taiwan, Singapore and Japan. Property, plant and equipment rose to $63.3bn | Risk reworded to cover execution at leading edge nodes and ability to meet customer demand |
| Government incentives | CHIPS Act awards of up to $6.4bn carry milestones, clawback, limits on buybacks and sharing of excess cash flow (10-K) | Incentive receivable of $3.41bn at 28 May 2026 |
| Strategic investments | Acquisitions risk now covers investments in companies in its ecosystem, with risk of loss and illiquidity | New in 10-Q; $1.05bn of nonmarketable equity bought in FY2026 |
| Litigation | Netlist verdict of $445m in May 2024 is under appeal; YMTC filed further patent suits in four jurisdictions on 6 October 2025 (10-Q) | Patent license charge of $500m in Q4 FY2026 |
9 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity
Three cases cover FY2027 to FY2029 and start from FY2026 revenue of $133.2bn and EPS of $74.33. First year revenue in worst, base and best case equals low end, average and high end of analyst estimates for FY2027: $212.4bn, $274.7bn and $307.2bn. Worst case then applies revenue declines of 35% and 25% and a gross margin of 45% in FY2029; revenue fell 49% in FY2023 and gross margin was 39.8% in FY2025. Best case holds gross margin at or above 86.25%, which management called low point for FY2027, and grows revenue 20% and 15%, near industry bit shipment growth of low 20s % that management projects for 2027 and 2028. Each case is an estimate under assumptions in table below.
| Table 18. Scenario assumptions and results, FY2027 to FY2029 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst case | Base case | Best case | ||||||||
| FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | |
| Assumptions | ||||||||||
| Revenue growth | 256.3% | 59.5% | (35.0%) | (25.0%) | 106.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 130.7% | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Gross margin | 80.7% | 82.0% | 62.0% | 45.0% | 86.0% | 84.0% | 78.0% | 87.5% | 88.0% | 88.0% |
| Operating expenses, $bn | 8.2 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 14.0 |
| Depreciation and amortization, $bn | 9.5 | 12.5 | 16.0 | 18.5 | 12.5 | 17.0 | 22.0 | 12.5 | 17.5 | 24.0 |
| Capital expenditures net of incentives, $bn | 27.4 | 52 | 35 | 22 | 54 | 60 | 55 | 56 | 68 | 75 |
| Results | ||||||||||
| Revenue, $bn | 133.2 | 212.4 | 138.1 | 103.5 | 274.7 | 302.2 | 302.2 | 307.2 | 368.6 | 423.9 |
| Operating income, $bn | 99.3 | 163.7 | 75.6 | 37.1 | 225.8 | 242.4 | 223.2 | 258.0 | 311.9 | 359.1 |
| Operating margin | 74.6% | 77.1% | 54.8% | 35.8% | 82.2% | 80.2% | 73.9% | 84.0% | 84.6% | 84.7% |
| Net income, $bn | 85.0 | 140.4 | 66.0 | 33.5 | 192.9 | 206.9 | 190.7 | 220.1 | 265.7 | 305.5 |
| Diluted EPS, $ | 74.33 | 122.10 | 57.38 | 29.09 | 167.73 | 179.91 | 165.85 | 191.41 | 231.02 | 265.67 |
| Free cash flow per share, $ | 54.49 | 78.81 | 51.95 | 31.94 | 114.57 | 140.33 | 138.55 | 132.28 | 180.48 | 215.50 |
| Price to earnings multiple applied, times | 12 | 6 | 8 | |||||||
| Implied value per share, $ | 1,045.38 | 349 | 995 | 2,125 | ||||||
Critical factors behind best case
| Table 19. Critical factors, evidence and best case assumption | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Factor | Evidence in filings and company statements | Best case assumes | Indicator |
| Selling prices | DRAM prices rose by a low 260% range and NAND prices by a mid 310% range in Q3 FY2026 against prior year (10-Q). Management expects price increases at a more moderate rate (remarks) | Gross margin of 87.5% to 88%, against 86.8% in Q4 FY2026 | Price changes in each 10-Q; gross margin guidance |
| Contract cover | Remaining performance obligations of about $150bn and 26 agreements covering over 35% of projected supply through 2030 (remarks); largest agreements have a price floor (10-Q) | Floor and ceiling prices hold volumes and prices through FY2029 | Remaining performance obligations and customer contract liabilities in FY2026 10-K |
| Bit supply | Idaho and Tongluo output from middle of calendar 2027; industry bit shipment growth of low to mid 20s % (10-Q; remarks) | Revenue growth of 20% and 15% after FY2027; FY2029 revenue $424bn | Bit shipment changes; fab start dates |
| HBM | Agreements cover most of calendar 2027 HBM supply at higher prices; HBM4 in ramp (remarks) | HBM grows faster than other DRAM through 2028 | HBM statements each quarter |
| Capital intensity | Capital expenditures net of incentives of $27.4bn in FY2026 and about $25bn guided for first half of FY2027 | $56bn to $75bn a year, about 18% of revenue | Capital expenditure guidance each quarter |
| China and competitors | China share of revenue 10.1% in FY2025; 10-Q names CXMT and YMTC as competitors | Contract prices hold as Chinese supply grows | Revenue by customer headquarters in 10-K |
Sensitivity of base case
| Table 20. Base case FY2029 EPS of $165.85 and free cash flow per share of $138.55: effect of each input | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Input and range | At low end, $ | At high end, $ | Change from base, $ |
| Gross margin, 8 points lower or higher | 148.09 | 183.62 | (17.76) to 17.76 |
| Revenue growth, 10 points lower or higher in each year | 127.49 | 210.57 | (38.36) to 44.72 |
| Diluted shares, 3% higher or lower | 161.02 | 170.98 | (4.83) to 5.13 |
| Tax rate, 17.5% to 13.5% | 161.93 | 169.78 | (3.93) to 3.93 |
| Operating expenses, $2bn higher or lower | 164.38 | 167.32 | (1.47) to 1.47 |
| Capital expenditures net of incentives, $10bn higher or lower (free cash flow per share) | 129.85 | 147.25 | (8.70) to 8.70 |
Alternative views
- Range of analyst estimates: Consensus for FY2027 is revenue of $274.7bn within a range of $212.4bn to $307.2bn, and adjusted EPS of $176.42 within $161.00 to $214.70 (36 analysts). Average price target is $1,536 within $361 to $2,200 (49 analysts). Consensus for FY2028 was unavailable to this report; base case growth of 10% and 0% is this report's assumption.
- Management view: Management stated on 30 September 2026 that it sees supply tighter in 2027 and 2028 than in 2026 and that timing of a return to balance is unknown to it. Base case gross margin falls from 86% to 78% by FY2029 and worst case to 45%; gross margin was (9.1%) in FY2023, two years after 45.2% in FY2022.
- Cash: Base case free cash flow sums to $452bn over three years, 38% of market value of $1.18tn, before any use for buybacks; scenario share count is held at 1.15bn. At capital expenditures $10bn a year higher, base case FY2029 free cash flow per share falls by $8.70.
- Valuation: Shares trade at 14.1 times FY2026 EPS and 5.9 times consensus FY2027 EPS. Base case applies 6 times to FY2029 EPS; at 4.5 times, near SK hynix forward multiple, implied value is $746 and at 12 times $1,990.
Sources
SEC filings, retrieved through sec-api.io: 10-K FY2022 0000723125-22-000048, 10-K FY2023 0000723125-23-000054, 10-K FY2024 0000723125-24-000027, 10-K FY2025 0000723125-25-000028, 10-Q Q1 FY2024 0000723125-23-000077, 10-Q Q2 FY2024 0000723125-24-000007, 10-Q Q3 FY2024 0000723125-24-000019, 10-Q Q1 FY2025 0000723125-24-000047, 10-Q Q2 FY2025 0000723125-25-000009, 10-Q Q3 FY2025 0000723125-25-000021, 10-Q Q1 FY2026 0000723125-25-000046, 10-Q Q2 FY2026 0000723125-26-000006, 10-Q Q3 FY2026 0000723125-26-000015, 8-K Q4 FY2026 results 0000723125-26-000018. Earlier earnings exhibits: Form 8-K 0000723125-25-000024, 0000723125-25-000044, 0000723125-26-000004 and 0000723125-26-000013. Other Forms 8-K, DEF 14A, Schedules 13G and Forms 4 as cited in tables. Peer filings: Sandisk 10-K 0001628280-26-057406; Western Digital 10-K 0001628280-26-057139; Seagate Technology 10-K 0001137789-26-000159.
Company statements outside SEC filings: Micron prepared remarks and earnings call of 30 September 2026 (company investor site and public transcript), and summaries of earnings calls of 17 December 2025, 18 March 2026 and 24 June 2026. SK hynix, Samsung Electronics and Kioxia figures from company releases and press reports of company results.
