October 25, 2026·23 min read
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), Financial Analysis
Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.
Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2022 to FY2026, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 FY25 to Q1 FY27, the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the quarterly earnings releases (Ex 99.1), the 2025 Stock Incentive Plan (Ex 10.1), charter amendments (Ex 3.1, 3.2) and officer and director releases (Ex 99.1, 99.2), the proxy statement of 2026 and the Form 8-K Item 5.07 vote results of November 2025, Schedules 13G and Forms 3, 4 and 144 on the record for central index key 707549, together with the comparable filings of five peers. Accession numbers for every filing used appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are the last trade of 23 October 2026.
Revenue Q1 FY27
$8.22bn
+54.4% year on year; +22.3% on Q4 FY26
Operating margin Q1 FY27
40.0%
Q1 FY26 34.4%
Free cash flow Q1 FY27
$3.24bn
TTM $6.54bn
Q2 FY27 guidance
$8.60bn
± $400m; EPS $2.33
Market value
$287bn
P/E TTM 34.2x
Key findings
- Q1 FY27 (Sep 2026 quarter) revenue $8.22bn, +54.4% year on year; systems $5.73bn, +61.6%; customer support (CSBG) $2.49bn, +40.0%.
- Operating margin 40.0% and gross margin 52.3%, against 34.4% and 50.4% a year earlier; diluted EPS $2.19, +76.6%.
- Guidance Q2 FY27: revenue $8.60bn ± $400m, gross margin 52.5%, EPS $2.33; management said supply constraints limited the guide.
- Management raised its calendar 2026 WFE estimate three times, from mid $130bn in January to the mid $150bn range, and gave a preliminary 2027 view above $200bn.
- China 35.1% of Q1 FY27 revenue; management expects a meaningful decline in the December quarter from domestic Chinese customers.
- Shares at $229.37 are 47.7% below the 52 week high after an 11.8% fall on 22 Oct 2026. Base case (15% revenue CAGR, 41% margin, 24x P/E) implies $279 in three years; best case $526, worst case $97.
1 Revenue & Business Model
- One reportable segment: wafer fabrication equipment for deposition, etch and clean, plus the Customer Support Business Group (spares, upgrades, services, Reliant tools for mature nodes). Largest customers FY2024 to FY2026: Micron, Samsung, SK hynix and TSMC.
- Revenue FY2022 $17.2bn to FY2026 $23.2bn, a 7.8% CAGR, with a FY2024 low of $14.9bn; TTM Q1 FY27 $26.1bn.
- Systems 64.1% and CSBG 35.9% of FY2026 revenue. CSBG grew 20.2% in FY2026 and 40.0% year on year in Q1 FY27; management guides CSBG growth above 30% for calendar 2026 and above 15% for 2027.
- End markets: foundry rose from 26% of systems revenue in FY2022 to 54% in FY2026; in Q1 FY27 memory and foundry each 46%, logic and other 8%; memory systems dollars about +120% year on year.
- Regions FY2026: China $7.9bn (33.8%), Taiwan $5.2bn (22.5%), Korea $4.5bn (19.4%), Japan $2.2bn (9.3%), United States $1.5bn (6.6%); international sales 92% of Q1 FY27 revenue.
- Fiscal year ends late June; Q1 FY27 is the quarter to 27 Sep 2026. Per share data reflects the 10 for 1 split of October 2024.
Table 1.1 Systems revenue by end market, FY2022 to FY2026
| Market | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foundry (% of systems) | 26 | 38 | 40 | 45 | 54 |
| Memory (% of systems) | 60 | 42 | 42 | 42 | 39 |
| Logic and other (% of systems) | 14 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 7 |
Table 1.2 Systems revenue by end market, last five quarters
| Market | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foundry (% of systems) | 60 | 59 | 54 | 44 | 46 |
| Memory (% of systems) | 34 | 34 | 39 | 46 | 46 |
| Logic and other (% of systems) | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 8 |
Q1 FY26 to Q1 FY27 cover the calendar quarters to Sep 2025, Dec 2025, Mar 2026, Jun 2026 and Sep 2026.
Table 1.3 Quarterly operating metrics
| Metric | Q1 FY26 | Q2 FY26 | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($bn) | 5.32 | 5.34 | 5.84 | 6.72 | 8.22 |
| Gross margin (%) | 50.4 | 49.6 | 49.8 | 51.7 | 52.3 |
| Operating margin (%) | 34.4 | 33.9 | 35.0 | 37.4 | 40.0 |
| China share of revenue (%) | 42.9 | 34.8 | 34.2 | 25.6 | 35.1 |
| Deferred revenue ($bn) | 2.77 | 2.25 | 2.22 | 2.43 | 2.66 |
| Unaccepted Japan shipments, future revenue ($bn) | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.47 |
2 Financial Analysis & Ratios
- Operating margin rose from 28.6% in FY2024 to 35.3% in FY2026 and 40.0% in Q1 FY27; R&D fell to 8.1% of revenue in Q1 FY27 from 10.8% a year earlier.
- Gross margin 50.5% in FY2026, +180 bps, on customer mix, partly offset by US steel and aluminum tariff costs; management targets mid 50s gross margin and mid 40s operating margin over several years.
- Net income TTM $8.4bn; FY2026 tax rate 12.1%, incl. a $967.9m Malaysia tax incentive ($0.77 per share); Q1 FY27 tax rate 16.9%.
- Free cash flow FY2026 $4.9bn, below FY2025 $5.4bn as receivables rose $2.0bn; Q1 FY27 FCF $3.24bn, a record.
- Capital returns: FY2026 buybacks $3.85bn and dividends $1.27bn, 104.7% of FCF; quarterly dividend raised 27% to $0.33; $3.03bn authorization remaining.
- Balance sheet: cash $7.4bn and senior notes $3.75bn (fixed coupons 1.90% to 4.875%); $750m notes repaid in March 2026; $2.0bn revolver undrawn.
Table 2.1 Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet summary ($bn unless stated)
| Line item | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 17.2 | 17.4 | 14.9 | 18.4 | 23.2 | 26.1 |
| Gross profit | 7.9 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 13.3 |
| Research and development | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Selling, general and administrative | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Operating income | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 9.7 |
| Net income | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 8.4 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 3.28 | 3.32 | 2.90 | 4.15 | 5.76 | 6.71 |
| Operating cash flow | 3.1 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 7.6 |
| Capital expenditure | (0.5) | (0.5) | (0.4) | (0.8) | (1.0) | (1.0) |
| Free cash flow | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 6.5 |
| Stock based compensation | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Cash and investments | 3.7 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 7.4 |
| Total debt | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Total equity | 6.3 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 13.9 |
Per share data restated for the 10 for 1 stock split of October 2024. FY2022 to FY2026 end in late June.
Table 2.2 What changed, Q1 FY27 against Q1 FY26
| Metric | Q1 FY26 | Q1 FY27 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($bn) | 5.32 | 8.22 | 54.4% |
| Gross profit ($bn) | 2.68 | 4.30 | 60.1% |
| Operating income ($bn) | 1.83 | 3.28 | 79.5% |
| Net income ($bn) | 1.57 | 2.75 | 75.5% |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 1.24 | 2.19 | 76.6% |
| Operating cash flow ($bn) | 1.78 | 3.50 | 96.6% |
| Free cash flow ($bn) | 1.59 | 3.24 | 103.3% |
| Operating margin (%) | 34.4 | 40.0 | 5.6 pts |
| Net margin (%) | 29.5 | 33.5 | 4.0 pts |
Table 2.3 Ratio analysis
| Ratio | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM Q1 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth and margins | ||||||
| Revenue growth (%) | n/a | 1.2 | (14.5) | 23.7 | 26.0 | n/a |
| Gross margin (%) | 45.7 | 44.6 | 47.3 | 48.7 | 50.5 | 51.1 |
| Operating margin (%) | 31.2 | 29.7 | 28.6 | 32.0 | 35.3 | 37.0 |
| Net margin (%) | 26.7 | 25.9 | 25.7 | 29.1 | 31.3 | 32.3 |
| FCF margin (%) | 14.8 | 26.8 | 28.6 | 29.4 | 21.1 | 25.0 |
| Cost and investment intensity | ||||||
| R&D (%) revenue | 9.3 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 10.2 | 9.4 |
| SBC (%) revenue | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Capex (%) revenue | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Effective tax rate (%) | 11.3 | 11.7 | 12.2 | 10.1 | 12.1 | 13.0 |
| Returns | ||||||
| ROE (%) | 73.4 | 62.3 | 45.7 | 58.2 | 65.1 | 60.8 |
| ROA (%) | 26.8 | 25.1 | 20.4 | 26.7 | 32.4 | 32.1 |
| ROIC (%) | 62.6 | 58.2 | 48.8 | 66.7 | 67.9 | 82.3 |
| Asset turnover (x) | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| Liquidity and leverage | ||||||
| Current ratio (x) | 2.69 | 3.16 | 2.97 | 2.21 | 2.63 | 2.48 |
| Debt to equity (x) | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.45 | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| Net cash ($bn) | (1.3) | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.7 |
| Efficiency and cash quality | ||||||
| Days sales outstanding | 91 | 59 | 62 | 67 | 84 | 79 |
| Inventory days | 155 | 182 | 196 | 166 | 136 | 130 |
| FCF to net income (x) | 0.55 | 1.04 | 1.11 | 1.01 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| Shareholder returns (%) FCF | 183 | 63 | 91 | 84 | 105 | 80 |
Table 2.4 Valuation snapshot at $229.37 per share, 23 Oct 2026
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap ($bn) | 286.5 |
| Enterprise value ($bn) | 282.8 |
| P/E (TTM) (x) | 34.2 |
| EV/Sales (TTM) (x) | 10.8 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) (x) | 28.0 |
| FCF yield (%) | 2.3 |
| Price/Book (x) | 20.6 |
3 MD&A & Management Commentary
Latest earnings call and results release
- Q1 FY27 (21 Oct 2026): revenue $8.22bn, +22% on the quarter and +54% on the year; non GAAP gross margin 52.4% and operating margin 40.2%, both company records; revenue above the $8.10bn guidance midpoint for a fifth straight quarter.
- WFE: calendar 2026 estimate in the mid $150bn range, from mid $130bn in January; preliminary 2027 above $200bn, with DRAM growing fastest, then foundry logic, then NAND; about 10 new tier 1 fabs online in 2027; customer visibility through 2028.
- Share: Lam expects to outgrow WFE in calendar 2026 for a third year; systems revenue growth well over 40% in calendar 2026.
- China: 35% of revenue in Q1 FY27 against 26% in Q4 FY26; December quarter share expected to fall meaningfully as domestic Chinese customers decline; multinationals in China steady.
- Supply: Q2 FY27 revenue would have been higher without near term supply chain constraints; delayed shipments move into the March quarter.
- New products: advanced packaging growth about 70% in calendar 2026; cumulative dry resist revenue expected around $2.5bn by end of decade, about $1bn above the prior view.
- Cash and returns: 41% of Q1 FY27 FCF returned; long term target 85%; DSO 63 days; headcount about 24,300.
- Q4 FY26 call (29 Jul 2026): FY2026 non GAAP EPS $5.82, +41%; calendar 2026 WFE raised to the low $150bn range; served market about 36% to 36.5% of WFE; region mix Taiwan 27%, China 26%, Korea 20%.
Table 3.1 Company outlook as filed or stated on the call
| Item | Outlook | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY27 revenue | $8.60bn ± $400m | 8-K 21 Oct 2026, Ex 99.1 |
| Q2 FY27 gross margin | 52.5% ± 1 point | 8-K 21 Oct 2026, Ex 99.1 |
| Q2 FY27 operating margin | 40.5% ± 1 point | 8-K 21 Oct 2026, Ex 99.1 |
| Q2 FY27 diluted EPS | $2.33 ± $0.15 on 1.253bn shares | 8-K 21 Oct 2026, Ex 99.1 |
| Calendar 2026 WFE | mid $150bn range (January: mid $130bn) | Q1 FY27 call |
| Calendar 2027 WFE | above $200bn, preliminary; firmer view in January 2027 | Q1 FY27 call |
| CSBG growth | above 30% in calendar 2026; above 15% in 2027 | Q1 FY27 call |
| Guidance record | revenue above guidance midpoint in each of Q1 FY26 to Q1 FY27, by $0.12bn to $0.14bn | 8-K Ex 99.1 releases |
Management and CFO commentary
- CFO Doug Bettinger, Q1 FY27 call (21 Oct 2026): record non GAAP gross margin 52.4% on customer and product mix; opex $1.0bn, mostly incentive pay; non GAAP tax rate 16.5%, expected to persist; inventory turns 3.4x, the highest in nearly seven years; DSO 63 days.
- CFO, capital return: 41% of FCF returned in Q1 FY27 and 59% calendar year to date; an accelerated share repurchase continues into Q2 FY27; long term plan to return 85% of FCF.
- CFO, outlook: China a significantly lower share of Q2 FY27 revenue on domestic China customers; supply chain constraints held the Q2 FY27 guide lower, with delayed shipments in Q3 FY27.
- CFO, Q4 FY26 call (29 Jul 2026): gross margin of 51% to 52% as the current range; long term model of mid 50s gross margin and mid 40s operating margin; served market about 36% of WFE in 2026, moving to the high 30s.
- CEO Tim Archer, Ex 99.1 releases and calls: record revenue, operating margin and EPS in Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27; foundry, logic and DRAM about 80% of 2026 systems growth year to date; cumulative dry resist revenue near $2.5bn by end of decade; clean room space and component supply named as limits on 2027 industry output.
Table 3.2 Management statements in their own words
| Speaker | Date and source | Statement |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Archer, President and CEO | 21 Oct 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “Our strategic investments in technology inflections and manufacturing capacity are paying off” |
| Doug Bettinger, EVP and CFO | 21 Oct 2026, Q1 FY27 call | “I would be stunned if advanced packaging didn't grow nicely next year.” |
Table 3.3 Key disclosures from the latest Form 10-K and Form 10-Q
| Item | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| 10-K FY2026, Item 1 | About 23,300 employees at 4 Aug 2026, over 26% in R&D; 38% in the US, 56% in Asia. Named competitors include Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, ASM International, Hitachi, Screen and Chinese domestic equipment makers with government support. |
| 10-K FY2026, Item 1A export controls | China about 34% of revenue in FY2026 and FY2025 and 42% in FY2024. US end use controls, Entity List additions and the foreign direct product rule require licenses for certain China shipments, with no assurance of approval. |
| 10-K FY2026, Item 1A new | New risks: Lam's own use of AI tools; AI driven capex as a demand driver with risk from slower adoption or oversupply; the conflict from February 2026 involving the US, Israel, Gulf states and Iran; Chinese rare earth export controls. Pandemic risk factor removed. |
| 10-K FY2026, Item 7 | Revenue +26.0%; systems +29.5% to $14.89bn on foundry spending; customer support +20.2% to $8.35bn on spares and mature node tools. |
| 10-K FY2026, notes | Senior notes $3.75bn principal across five tranches due 2029 to 2060. Purchase obligations $1.48bn. Remaining performance obligations $2.43bn. |
| 10-Q Q1 FY27, MD&A | Systems revenue +35% on the quarter to $5.73bn; foundry share rose on timing of mature node investment in China. Effective tax rate 16.9% against 10.9% in Q4 FY26. |
| 10-Q Q1 FY27, liquidity | Operating cash flow $3.50bn; capex $257.7m; buybacks $1.02bn incl. $1.0bn of accelerated repurchases with two banks; dividends $325.4m. |
| 10-Q Q1 FY27, deferred revenue | Deferred revenue $2.66bn against $2.43bn at FY2026; unaccepted Japan shipments carried in inventory imply about $468m of future revenue. |
| 10-Q Q1 FY27, risk factors | Updated text: Chinese rare earth measures reduced material availability and lengthened licensing; export license limits now also affect global R&D activities. |
4 Sector & Competitor Analysis
- Sector: semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment. Management sizes WFE at about $110bn in calendar 2025, mid $150bn in 2026 and above $200bn in 2027; Lam served market about 36% to 36.5% of WFE.
- Growth: LRCX +33.4% TTM against ASML +55.2% (Q3 2026), Teradyne +95.3% (H1 2026), KLA +11.7% (FY June 2026), Applied Materials +11.4% (9M FY26) and Tokyo Electron flat (FY March 2026).
- Margins: LRCX TTM operating margin 36.9% against KLA 41.7%, Teradyne 30.2%, Applied Materials 29.6% and Tokyo Electron 25.6%; LRCX gross margin 51.1% against KLA 61.3% and ASML 54.3%.
- Valuation: LRCX 34.2x P/E and 10.8x EV/Sales against Applied Materials 32.5x and 9.6x, KLA 39.9x and 14.1x, ASML 39.8x and 13.6x, Teradyne 42.2x and 10.7x.
- Supply: ASML said planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet customer demand; Lam cited supply constraints on its December quarter.
- China: Lam expects China WFE flat to slightly up in 2026; 10-K names Chinese domestic equipment makers as competitors.
Table 4.1 Peer comparison, latest reported trailing twelve months
| Company | Revenue TTM ($bn) | Revenue growth (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) | Net margin (%) | FCF margin (%) | ROE (%) | Net cash ($bn) | Market value ($bn) | EV/Sales (x) | P/E TTM (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LRCX | 26.1 | 33.4 | 51.1 | 36.9 | 32.3 | 25.0 | 70.1 | 3.7 | 286 | 10.8 | 34.2 |
| AMAT | 30.8 | 11.4 | 49.4 | 29.6 | 30.1 | 18.2 | 41.1 | 2.7 | 299 | 9.6 | 32.5 |
| KLAC | 13.6 | 11.7 | 61.3 | 41.7 | 35.6 | 27.7 | 87.5 | (1.0) | 191 | 14.1 | 39.9 |
| ASML | 44.2 | 55.2 | 54.3 | n/a | 34.1 | n/a | n/a | n/a | 601 | 13.6 | 39.8 |
| TEL | n/a | 0.0 | n/a | 25.6 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| TER | 4.5 | 95.3 | 59.2 | 30.2 | 25.8 | 17.9 | 36.9 | 0.3 | 48 | 10.7 | 42.2 |
LRCX TTM to Sep 2026; AMAT TTM to Jul 2026; KLA FY to June 2026; ASML from Form 6-K releases in EUR at 1.12 $ per EUR; Teradyne TTM to June 2026; Tokyo Electron figures in yen, so most fields are n/a. Growth periods differ by company.
5 Material Events & Contracts
- Eight Forms 8-K in twelve months: four earnings releases, the November 2025 annual meeting, board and officer changes (with one amendment) and two director retirements.
- Officers: COO Patrick Lord retired on 6 Mar 2026; Sesha Varadarajan became EVP and COO. Anirudh Devgan, CEO of Cadence Design Systems, joined the board in February 2026.
- Board: Sohail Ahmed and Michael Cannon retire on 2 Nov 2026; the board shrinks from 12 to 10 directors before the 3 Nov 2026 annual meeting.
Table 5.1 Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
| Date | Items | Event |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 3.03, 5.02, 5.03, 5.07, 9.01 | Annual meeting of 4 Nov 2025: 11 directors elected; say on pay 90.83%; 2025 Stock Incentive Plan approved; KPMG ratified; officer exculpation charter amendment approved; special meeting proposal 41.36%. |
| 28 Jan 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q2 FY26 results: revenue $5.34bn, gross margin 49.6%, EPS $1.26; Q3 FY26 guidance $5.70bn ± $300m. |
| 3 Feb 2026 | 5.02, 9.01 | Anirudh Devgan appointed director; COO Patrick Lord to retire on 6 Mar 2026; Sesha Varadarajan named EVP and COO. |
| 3 Feb 2026 | 5.02, 9.01 | Form 8-K/A refiling exhibits; Item 5.02 text unchanged. |
| 22 Apr 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q3 FY26 results: revenue $5.84bn, gross margin 49.8%, EPS $1.45; Q4 FY26 guidance $6.60bn ± $400m. |
| 29 Jul 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q4 FY26 results: revenue $6.72bn, gross margin 51.7%, EPS $1.81; FY2026 revenue $23.23bn, EPS $5.76; Q1 FY27 guidance $8.10bn ± $400m. |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 5.02 | Directors Sohail Ahmed and Michael Cannon to retire on 2 Nov 2026; board to shrink from 12 to 10. |
| 21 Oct 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q1 FY27 results: revenue $8.22bn (+54%), gross margin 52.3%, operating margin 40.0%, EPS $2.19; dividend raised to $0.33 from $0.26; Q2 FY27 guidance $8.60bn ± $400m. |
Table 5.2 Material contracts and financing arrangements
| Contract | Terms |
|---|---|
| Senior notes | $3.75bn principal: 4.0% 2029 $1.0bn, 1.90% 2030 $750m, 4.875% 2049 $750m, 2.875% 2050 $750m, 3.125% 2060 $500m. |
| Revolver and commercial paper | $2.0bn revolver undrawn; commercial paper capacity raised to $2.0bn in March 2026, nothing outstanding. |
| Accelerated share repurchases | $1.0bn with two banks in Q1 FY27 (2.3m initial shares); March 2026 ASR delivered 685k initial shares at $270.71. |
6 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting
- One class of common stock, no controlling holder. Directors and officers hold 0.31%; BlackRock 9.41% and Vanguard Capital Management 7.48% per the 2026 proxy.
- 2025 annual meeting (4 Nov 2025): all 11 directors elected, Michael Cannon lowest at 80.8%; say on pay 90.8%; officer exculpation amendment approved with 66.1% of shares entitled to vote; special meeting proposal 41.4%.
- 2026 annual meeting on 3 Nov 2026: 10 director nominees, say on pay, KPMG for FY2027 and one stockholder proposal.
- Insiders, 12 months: no open market purchases; sales about $170.1m, mostly under 10b5-1 plans: CEO Tim Archer $57.0m, director Eric Brandt $47.0m, CFO Doug Bettinger $26.5m, COO Sesha Varadarajan $17.4m.
Table 6.1 Annual meeting vote results, 4 Nov 2025
| Proposal | For (bn votes) | Against (bn votes) | Abstain (bn votes) | For as % of votes cast | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elect Sohail U. Ahmed | 0.958 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 99.8 | Elected |
| Elect Timothy M. Archer | 0.956 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 99.5 | Elected |
| Elect Eric K. Brandt | 0.890 | 0.071 | 0.002 | 92.6 | Elected |
| Elect Ita M. Brennan | 0.959 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 99.9 | Elected |
| Elect Michael R. Cannon | 0.776 | 0.184 | 0.002 | 80.8 | Elected |
| Elect John M. Dineen | 0.959 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 99.8 | Elected |
| Elect Mark Fields | 0.958 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 99.7 | Elected |
| Elect Ho Kyu Kang | 0.959 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 99.8 | Elected |
| Elect Bethany J. Mayer | 0.921 | 0.039 | 0.002 | 95.9 | Elected |
| Elect Jyoti K. Mehra | 0.933 | 0.027 | 0.002 | 97.2 | Elected |
| Elect Abhijit Y. Talwalkar | 0.858 | 0.096 | 0.008 | 89.9 | Elected |
| Advisory vote on executive pay (say on pay) | 0.874 | 0.083 | 0.005 | 91.3 | Approved |
| Adopt 2025 Stock Incentive Plan | 0.902 | 0.055 | 0.004 | 94.2 | Approved |
| Ratify KPMG LLP as auditor for FY2026 | 1.082 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 99.6 | Ratified |
| Charter amendment to limit liability of certain officers (Delaware law) | 0.834 | 0.126 | 0.002 | 86.9 | Approved |
| Shareholder: realistic shareholder ability to call a special meeting | 0.398 | 0.562 | 0.002 | 41.4 | Not approved |
For as % of votes cast excludes abstentions and broker non votes.
Annual meeting remarks
- No management remarks, presentation or transcript from the 4 Nov 2025 virtual meeting are published; the vote results are in Table 6.1.
Table 6.2 Holders above 5%, proxy statement of 24 Sep 2026
| Holder | Shares (m) | Stake (%) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | 117.8 | 9.41 | 13G/A as of 31 Dec 2023, split adjusted |
| Vanguard Capital Management | 93.6 | 7.48 | Schedule 13G of 30 Apr 2026 |
| Directors and officers (18 persons) | 3.8 | 0.31 | Incl. options and RSUs vesting within 60 days |
7 Risk Factors
- The Q1 FY27 Form 10-Q updates the rare earth and export license text. The FY2026 Form 10-K added risks on AI demand, AI tool use, the Middle East conflict and Chinese rare earth controls, and removed the pandemic risk.
Table 7.1 Risk factors disclosed in Item 1A, with changes against the prior filing
| Risk | Disclosure and change |
|---|---|
| Export controls and China | China 33.8% of FY2026 revenue and 35.1% in Q1 FY27; US license requirements; export license limits now also affect global R&D (10-Q update). |
| AI capex cycle (new) | AI driven capex named as a demand driver, with risk from slower adoption, compute efficiency gains or infrastructure oversupply. |
| Customer concentration | Micron, Samsung, SK hynix and TSMC were the largest customers in FY2024 to FY2026; memory and foundry capex drive systems revenue. |
| Rare earths and supply chain (new, updated) | Chinese rare earth measures reduced material availability; supply constraints limited Q2 FY27 guidance. |
| Geopolitics (new) | Conflict since February 2026 involving the US, Israel, Gulf states and Iran, incl. Strait of Hormuz restrictions. |
| Tariffs | US steel and aluminum tariffs raised FY2026 manufacturing costs and lowered margins. |
| Competition | Applied Materials, Tokyo Electron, ASM International and government backed Chinese equipment makers. |
| AI tools and cybersecurity (new) | Risks from Lam's own use of AI tools, incl. agentic AI and prompt injection. |
8 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity
- LRCX last traded at $229.37 on 23 Oct 2026, after an 11.8% fall on 22 Oct 2026 following Q1 FY27 results; 47.7% below the 52 week high of $438.50 (June 2026) and 69.9% above the low of $135.02.
- Valuation: 34.2x TTM EPS of $6.71; 10.8x EV/Sales; FCF yield 2.3%; H1 FY27 EPS of $4.52 combines Q1 actual and Q2 guidance.
- Scenario model: revenue grows from TTM Q1 FY27 $26.1bn for three years; 15% tax rate; net interest income $0.1bn; buybacks lower the share count; price equals FY2029 EPS times exit P/E.
Critical factors and core assumptions
Table 8.1 Critical factors behind the best case
| Factor | Current value | Best case requires | Evidence in filings and calls |
|---|---|---|---|
| WFE market | mid $150bn in 2026; above $200bn preliminary for 2027 | 2027 above $200bn and growth into 2028 | Q1 FY27 call; estimate raised in April, July and October 2026 |
| Memory capex | memory 46% of Q1 FY27 systems revenue, dollars about +120% | DRAM leads 2027; NAND layer upgrades continue | 10-Q Q1 FY27 mix; Q1 FY27 call |
| China revenue | 35.1% of Q1 FY27 revenue | gradual decline without new restrictions, offset by Korea, Taiwan and US | 10-Q risk factors; Q1 FY27 call |
| Margins | gross 52.3%, operating 40.0% | mid 50s gross and mid 40s operating margin | Q4 FY26 and Q1 FY27 calls; 10-K tariff note |
| CSBG growth | $2.49bn in Q1 FY27, +40% | above 15% a year from 2027 | Q1 FY27 call |
| Supply capacity | Q2 FY27 revenue limited by supply; headcount 24,300 | supply chain and rare earth inputs keep pace with orders | Q1 FY27 call; 10-Q risk factors |
- Revenue base TTM Q1 FY27 $26.1bn; Q1 FY27 actual plus Q2 guidance annualize to about $33.6bn.
- Best case: 28% revenue CAGR to $54.8bn, 44% operating margin, 30x P/E, share count (6%).
- Base case: 15% revenue CAGR to $39.7bn, 41% margin, 24x P/E, share count (4%).
- Worst case: 1% revenue CAGR to $26.9bn as WFE falls in 2028, 30% margin, 17x P/E, share count (2%).
- Tax rate 15% (FY2026 12.1%, Q1 FY27 16.9%); dividends excluded from the implied return.
Scenarios, three years forward
Table 8.2 Scenario analysis, TTM Q1 FY27 to TTM Q1 FY30
| Measure | Worst case | Base case | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%) | 1.0 | 15.0 | 28.0 |
| Revenue, TTM Q1 FY30 ($bn) | 26.9 | 39.7 | 54.8 |
| Operating margin, TTM Q1 FY30 (%) | 30.0 | 41.0 | 44.0 |
| Net income, TTM Q1 FY30 ($bn) | 6.9 | 13.9 | 20.6 |
| EPS, TTM Q1 FY30 ($) | 5.68 | 11.62 | 17.52 |
| Exit P/E (x) | 17.0 | 24.0 | 30.0 |
| Implied price ($) | 97 | 279 | 526 |
| Change against $229.37 (%) | (58) | 22 | 129 |
| Implied annual return (%) | (25.1) | 6.7 | 31.8 |
Horizon is the four quarters to September 2029. Implied annual return excludes dividends ($1.32 per share a year at the current rate).
Sensitivity analysis
Table 8.3 Sensitivity of implied price to revenue CAGR and operating margin at 24x P/E
| Revenue CAGR \ Operating margin | 30% | 34% | 38% | 41% | 44% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% | $139 | $157 | $176 | $189 | $203 |
| 8% | $170 | $192 | $214 | $231 | $248 |
| 15% | $204 | $232 | $259 | $279 | $299 |
| 22% | $244 | $276 | $308 | $333 | $357 |
| 28% | $281 | $319 | $356 | $384 | $412 |
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $229.37. Blue cells sit above the current price, red cells below.
Table 8.4 Sensitivity of implied price to exit P/E and operating margin at 15% revenue CAGR
| Exit P/E \ Operating margin | 30% | 34% | 38% | 41% | 44% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17x | $145 | $164 | $183 | $198 | $212 |
| 21x | $179 | $203 | $226 | $244 | $262 |
| 24x | $204 | $232 | $259 | $279 | $299 |
| 27x | $230 | $260 | $291 | $314 | $337 |
| 30x | $256 | $289 | $323 | $349 | $374 |
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $229.37. Blue cells sit above the current price, red cells below.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 23 October 2026.
Sources
All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Call statements are taken from the October 2026 and July 2026 earnings calls held by the company.
Table A.1 Filings used, with accession numbers
| Form | Period | Filed | Accession number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-K | FY2026 | 7 Aug 2026 | 0000707549-26-000037 |
| 10-K | FY2025 | 11 Aug 2025 | 0000707549-25-000075 |
| 10-K | FY2024 | 29 Aug 2024 | 0000707549-24-000106 |
| 10-K | FY2023 | 15 Aug 2023 | 0000707549-23-000102 |
| 10-Q | Q1 FY27 | 22 Oct 2026 | 0000707549-26-000054 |
| 10-Q | Q3 FY26 | 23 Apr 2026 | 0000707549-26-000022 |
| 10-Q | Q2 FY26 | 29 Jan 2026 | 0000707549-26-000009 |
| 10-Q | Q1 FY26 | 24 Oct 2025 | 0000707549-25-000085 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 | Q1 FY27 | 21 Oct 2026 | 0000707549-26-000052 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 | Q4 FY26 | 29 Jul 2026 | 0000707549-26-000033 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 | Q3 FY26 | 22 Apr 2026 | 0000707549-26-000020 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 | Q2 FY26 | 28 Jan 2026 | 0000707549-26-000006 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 | Q1 FY26 | 22 Oct 2025 | 0000707549-25-000082 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 | Q4 FY25 | 30 Jul 2025 | 0000707549-25-000068 |
| 8-K (Item 5.07) | Annual meeting 4 Nov 2025 | 6 Nov 2025 | 0000707549-25-000094 |
| 8-K (Item 5.02) | Board and COO changes | 3 Feb 2026 | 0000707549-26-000012 |
| 8-K (Item 5.02) | Director retirements | 27 Aug 2026 | 0000707549-26-000043 |
| DEF 14A | 2026 annual meeting | 24 Sep 2026 | 0000707549-26-000047 |
| Schedule 13G | Vanguard Capital Management | 30 Apr 2026 | 0002100119-26-000703 |
| 10-Q (AMAT) | Q3 FY26 | 20 Aug 2026 | 0001628280-26-058235 |
| 10-K (AMAT) | FY2025 | 12 Dec 2025 | 0001628280-25-056742 |
| 10-K (KLAC) | FY2026 | 6 Aug 2026 | 0000319201-26-000027 |
| 10-Q (TER) | Q2 2026 | 31 Jul 2026 | 0001193125-26-327715 |
| 10-K (TER) | FY2025 | 19 Feb 2026 | 0001193125-26-059002 |
| 6-K (ASML) | Q3 2026 | 14 Oct 2026 | 0001628280-26-065813 |
| 6-K (ASML) | Q4 2025 | Jan 2026 | 0001628280-26-003701 |
| 6-K (ASML) | Q1 2026 | Apr 2026 | 0001628280-26-025147 |
Table B.1 Exhibits to Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
| Filed | Exhibit | Document | Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | EX-10.1 | Lam Research Corporation 2025 Stock Incentive Plan | Share reserve of 96.8m shares plus shares remaining under the 2015 Stock Incentive Plan on 3 Nov 2025 and recycled forfeitures; Full value awards (RSUs, restricted stock) count as 2 shares against the reserve; options and SARs count as 1 |
| 6 Nov 2025 | EX-3.1 | Certificate of Amendment of Restated Certificate of Incorporation (officer exculpation) | Article TENTH amended so that no director or officer is personally liable for monetary damages for breach of fiduciary duty, to the fullest extent Delaware law permits; Extends exculpation, previously available to directors, to officers under Section 242 of the Delaware General Corporation Law |
| 6 Nov 2025 | EX-3.2 | Restated Certificate of Incorporation (integrates the officer exculpation amendment) | Restates and integrates the charter without further amendment; Article TENTH now covers both directors and officers; Authorized capital 4.005bn shares: 4bn common and 5m preferred, par $0.001 |
| 28 Jan 2026 | EX-99.1 | Earnings release: Q2 FY26 (December 2025 quarter) | Revenue $5.34bn, flat q/q ($5.32bn) and up 22% y/y ($4.38bn); systems $3.36bn, customer support $1.99bn; GAAP gross margin 49.6% (down 80 bps q/q), operating margin 33.9%, diluted EPS $1.26; non GAAP EPS $1.27 |
| 3 Feb 2026 | EX-99.1 | Press release: Cadence CEO Anirudh Devgan appointed to board | Anirudh Devgan, president and CEO of Cadence Design Systems (CEO since Dec 2021, president since Nov 2017), joined the board on 3 Feb 2026; Board size increased by one; Devgan joined the Innovation and Technology Committee (8-K Item 5.02) |
| 3 Feb 2026 | EX-99.2 | Press release: leadership transitions (version later replaced by 8-K/A) | COO Patrick Lord to retire effective 6 Mar 2026 after more than two decades with Lam and Novellus; he notified the company on 30 Jan 2026; Sesha Varadarajan, SVP Global Products Group since Mar 2023, named EVP and COO effective 6 Mar 2026 |
| 3 Feb 2026 | EX-99.1 | 8-K/A refiled press release: Devgan board appointment | Content matches the original Ex 99.1; refiled with typographic changes only; 8-K/A was furnished to attach the correct Ex 99.2; Item 5.02 text is unchanged |
| 3 Feb 2026 | EX-99.2 | 8-K/A corrected press release: leadership transitions | Corrected version: Varadarajan as COO keeps the global product portfolio and adds the customer support business group, corporate strategy and government affairs; Rammohan keeps global manufacturing and supply chain and adds IT systems, quality and facilities (global trade and government affairs dropped from his remit versus the original) |
| 22 Apr 2026 | EX-99.1 | Earnings release: Q3 FY26 (March 2026 quarter) | Record revenue $5.84bn, up 9% q/q and 24% y/y ($4.72bn); systems $3.73bn, customer support $2.11bn; GAAP gross margin 49.8%, operating margin 35.0%, record diluted EPS $1.45; non GAAP EPS $1.47 |
| 29 Jul 2026 | EX-99.1 | Earnings release: Q4 FY26 (June 2026 quarter) and FY2026 | Record revenue $6.72bn, up 15.1% q/q and 30% y/y ($5.17bn); systems $4.25bn, customer support $2.47bn; GAAP gross margin 51.7%, operating margin 37.4%, diluted EPS $1.81; non GAAP EPS $1.82 and non GAAP operating margin 38.4% |
| 21 Oct 2026 | EX-99.1 | Earnings release: Q1 FY27 (September 2026 quarter) | Record revenue $8.22bn, up 22% q/q and 54% y/y ($5.32bn); systems $5.73bn, customer support $2.49bn; GAAP gross margin 52.3%, operating margin 40.0%, diluted EPS $2.19; non GAAP EPS $2.20 |
