October 1, 2026·27 min read

Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), Financial Analysis

Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.

Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2022 to FY2026, the Forms 10-Q for FY2025 to FY2027, the Forms 8-K from Jul 2024 to Sep 2026 and their quarterly earnings exhibits 99.1, the proxy statements of 2025 and 2026, Schedules 13G, Forms 13F and Forms 4 and 144 on the record for central index key 1835632, together with the comparable filings of eight peers. Accession numbers for every filing used appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are the closing prices of 30 September 2026.

Revenue TTM
$9.45bn
up 32.2% in H1 FY2027
Data center share TTM
76%
of revenue, up from 40% in FY2022
Core operating margin TTM
26.2%
GAAP 16.5%
Share price
$264.21
close of 30 Sep 2026, 3.1x the end 2025 close
P/E, forward non GAAP
67x
on $3.94 of non GAAP EPS
Scenario values, end FY2030
$40 / 209 / 435
worst / base / best case per share

Key conclusions

  1. Data center revenue drives the growth. Q2 FY2027 revenue (to 1 Aug 2026) was $2.74bn, up 37%; data center revenue was $2.17bn, 79% of the total and up 46%. Q3 FY2027 guidance is $3.15bn plus or minus 5%, 52% above Q3 FY2026. On the Aug 2026 call management raised its FY2027 revenue outlook to about $12bn and FY2028 to about $18bn.
  2. GAAP margins carry acquisition costs. TTM gross margin was 52.2% and GAAP operating margin 16.5%. Acquired intangible amortization took 9.4% of revenue and stock compensation 8.8%. Core operating margin, which excludes amortization and restructuring and keeps stock compensation, was 26.2%.
  3. Custom silicon agreements tie revenue to warrants. Google received a warrant for up to 59.0m shares at $206.58 vesting in 240 tranches, one per $500m of custom product revenue through FY2033. Amazon holds warrants tied to custom AI and optics purchases. NVIDIA invested $2bn in convertible preferred stock in Mar 2026.
  4. Customer and geographic concentration is high. Distributor A was 37% and Customer A 14% of FY2026 revenue; the ten largest customers were 82%. Shipments to China were 41% of TTM revenue by destination.
  5. The shares trade on forward earnings. At $264.21, 3.1x the end 2025 close, the stock trades at 87x TTM GAAP EPS, which includes a $1.83bn gain on the automotive Ethernet sale, 80x TTM non GAAP EPS and 67x a forward non GAAP EPS of $3.94 built from H1 actuals and Q3 guidance.
  6. Scenario values for end FY2030 are $40 (worst), 209 (base) and 435 (best) per share. The current price equals 117x worst case, 38x base case and 24x best case FY2030 core EPS. Revenue growth and the exit multiple drive the widest range in the sensitivity analysis.

Views on these results differ. Arguments for a lower valuation cite customer concentration, the share of revenue shipped to China, dilution from warrants and the Celestial AI earn out, and 55.9% say on pay support in 2026. Arguments for a higher valuation cite raised FY2027 and FY2028 outlooks, hyperscaler capital spending of about $720bn to 745bn guided for 2026 and the Google agreement. This report presents filed data and model arithmetic; it is not financial advice.

1 Revenue and business model

Marvell is a fabless designer of data infrastructure chips: custom accelerators (XPUs) and attach chips for cloud providers, optical DSPs, switches, storage controllers and processors. Since Q4 FY2026 it reports two end markets: data center, and communications and other. Data center was 74% of FY2026 revenue and 76% of TTM revenue.

  • Portfolio changes. Sold the automotive Ethernet business to Infineon for $2.5bn in cash (closed 14 Aug 2025; pre tax gain $1.83bn). Acquired Celestial AI (photonic fabric; closed 2 Feb 2026) for about $1.3bn in cash and 24.6m shares plus an earn out of up to about $2.25bn in shares, and XConn (PCIe and CXL switches; closed 10 Feb 2026).
  • Customer agreements. Amazon (Dec 2024 and Dec 2025 warrants), NVIDIA (NVLink Fusion partnership and $2bn preferred, Mar 2026) and Google (custom silicon for its TPU ecosystem, Jul 2026). The FY2026 10-K lists Distributor A at 37% and Customer A at 14% of revenue.
  • Supply. TSMC is the sole advanced node foundry. Foundry and test purchase commitments rose from $2.67bn at FY2026 year end to $8.52bn at 1 Aug 2026; on the earnings call, management cited plans for about $1bn of capacity prepayments in FY2027.
  • People and IP. 7,480 employees at 31 Jan 2026; more than 10,000 patents and applications.
Figure 1.1. Revenue and margins FY2022 to FY2027E
Figure 1.2. Revenue by end market
Table 1.1. Revenue by end market
End marketFY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026TTMFY2026 y/yTTM share
Data center1.78bn2.41bn2.22bn4.16bn6.10bn7.17bn46.5%75.9%
Communications and other2.68bn3.51bn3.29bn1.60bn2.09bn2.28bn30.6%24.1%
Total revenue4.46bn5.92bn5.51bn5.77bn8.19bn9.45bn42.1%100.0%
Communications and other is revenue less data center; until Q3 FY2026 Marvell split it into four markets (FY2025: enterprise networking $626.4m, carrier $338.2m, consumer $316.1m, automotive and industrial $322.4m).
Table 1.2. Revenue by ship to destination
RegionFY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026TTMTTM share
China1.97bn2.49bn2.37bn2.51bn2.97bn3.90bn41.2%
United States484.0m690.1m795.6m956.9m1.17bn919.4m9.7%
Taiwann/a289.0m161.9m560.7m1.66bn1.77bn18.7%
Other2.01bn2.45bn2.18bn1.74bn2.39bn2.87bn30.4%
Destination of shipment as filed; Other includes Singapore and remaining countries. FY2022 Taiwan is included in Other.

2 Financial analysis and ratios

H1 FY2027 revenue rose 32.2% to $5.16bn and GAAP operating income 42.5% to $799.1m. GAAP net income fell to $342.5m from $372.7m, after a $203.3m charge in Q1 FY2027 for remeasuring the Celestial AI earn out. FY2026 net income of $2.67bn included the $1.83bn divestiture gain.

Figure 2.1. Quarterly revenue and margins
Table 2.1. Income statement; TTM = Q3 FY2026 to Q2 FY2027
$FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026TTM
Revenue4.46bn5.92bn5.51bn5.77bn8.19bn9.45bn
Cost of revenue(2.40)bn(2.93)bn(3.21)bn(3.39)bn(4.01)bn(4.52)bn
Gross profit2.06bn2.99bn2.29bn2.38bn4.18bn4.93bn
Research and development(1.42)bn(1.78)bn(1.90)bn(1.95)bn(2.08)bn(2.44)bn
Selling, general and administrative(955.2)m(843.6)m(834.0)m(798.2)m(767.1)m(903.9)m
Operating income(347.7)m238.0m(567.7)m(720.3)m1.32bn1.56bn
of which acquired intangible amortization(979.4)m(1.09)bn(1.10)bn(1.05)bn(942.0)m(892.7)m
of which restructuring and impairment0.0m(21.6)m(131.1)m(711.8)m(16.0)m(19.6)m
Interest expense(139.3)m(170.6)m(211.7)m(189.4)m(202.6)m(216.4)m
Interest and other income2.8m12.4m11.9m15.0m1.93bn1.71bn
Income tax62.5m(248.6)m(174.7)m9.7m(376.5)m(418.7)m
Net income(421.0)m(163.5)m(933.4)m(885.0)m2.67bn2.64bn
Diluted EPS, $(0.53)(0.19)(1.08)(1.02)3.073.03
Diluted shares, m796.9851.4861.3865.5869.7921.2
Fiscal years end on the Saturday nearest 31 Jan; FY2024 had 53 weeks. TTM EPS is the sum of four quarters (Q4 FY2026 from the release). FY2025 restructuring nets a Q4 credit of $11.4m against a Q3 charge of $715.1m.
Table 2.2. What changed: FY2026 against FY2025 and H1 FY2027 against H1 FY2026
Full yearFirst half
$FY2025FY2026ChangeH1 FY2026H1 FY2027Change
Revenue5.77bn8.19bn42.1%3.90bn5.16bn32.2%
Data center revenue4.16bn6.10bn46.5%2.93bn4.00bn36.6%
Gross profit2.38bn4.18bn75.5%1.96bn2.72bn38.4%
Research and development1.95bn2.08bn6.4%1.03bn1.39bn35.7%
Selling, general and administrative798.2m767.1m(3.9%)379.2m516.0m36.1%
Operating income(720.3)m1.32bnn/a560.7m799.1m42.5%
Net income(885.0)m2.67bnn/a372.7m342.5m(8.1%)
Operating cash flow1.68bn1.75bn4.1%794.5m1.24bn56.6%
Free cash flow1.40bn1.40bn0.0%628.2m961.9m53.1%
Stock based compensation597.4m590.8m(1.1%)295.7m533.8m80.5%
Share repurchases725.0m2.04bn181.4%540.0m400.0m(25.9%)
Gross margin41.3%51.0%9.7 pts50.3%52.7%2.4 pts
Operating margin(12.5%)16.1%28.6 pts14.4%15.5%1.1 pts
Change shows n/a where either value is negative.
Table 2.3. Core earnings reconciliation
$FY2026TTM
Operating income, GAAP1.32bn1.56bn
Add: acquired intangible amortization942.0m892.7m
Add: restructuring and impairment16.0m19.6m
Operating income, core2.28bn2.47bn
Operating margin, core27.8%26.2%
Income before tax, GAAP3.05bn3.06bn
Less: gain on automotive Ethernet sale (Q3 FY2026)(1.83)bn(1.83)bn
Add: Celestial AI earn out remeasurement0.0m255.3m
Add: amortization, restructuring and impairment958.0m912.3m
Income before tax, core2.17bn2.40bn
Net income, core (11% tax)1.94bn2.13bn
Diluted EPS, GAAP / core, $3.07 / 2.223.03 / 2.31
Diluted EPS, company non GAAP, $n/a3.30
Core earnings keep stock based compensation as a cost and tax adjusted income at the company non GAAP rate of 11%. Company non GAAP EPS also excludes stock compensation (Ex 99.1 of each quarter).
Figure 2.2. Cash flow, shareholder returns and gross margin
Table 2.4. Ratio analysis, FY2022 to FY2026 and TTM
RatioFY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026TTM
Growth
Revenue growthn/a32.7%(7.0%)4.7%42.1%30.6%
Data center growthn/a35.0%(8.0%)87.9%46.5%32.9%
Data center share40.0%40.7%40.2%72.2%74.4%75.9%
Profitability
Gross margin46.3%50.5%41.6%41.3%51.0%52.2%
Operating margin(7.8%)4.0%(10.3%)(12.5%)16.1%16.5%
Core operating margin14.2%22.8%12.0%18.1%27.8%26.2%
Net margin(9.4%)(2.8%)(16.9%)(15.3%)32.6%27.9%
FCF margin14.6%18.3%18.8%24.2%17.0%18.3%
ROE(2.7%)(1.0%)(6.1%)(6.3%)19.3%16.5%
ROA(1.9%)(0.7%)(4.3%)(4.3%)12.6%11.0%
Cost structure
R&D / revenue31.9%30.1%34.4%33.8%25.3%25.8%
SG&A / revenue21.4%14.3%15.1%13.8%9.4%9.6%
SBC / revenue10.7%9.3%11.1%10.4%7.2%8.8%
Amortization / revenue21.9%18.4%19.9%18.3%11.5%9.4%
Balance sheet and working capital
Goodwill and intangibles / assets79.9%74.1%73.4%70.8%57.5%58.9%
Days sales outstanding867474659786
Days inventory11013398111126110
Current ratio1.80x1.37x1.69x1.54x2.01x3.17x
Leverage and returns
Debt / equity0.29x0.29x0.28x0.30x0.31x0.27x
Net debt / EBITDA4.38x2.20x3.87x4.89x0.70x0.36x
Interest coveragen/a1.4xn/an/a6.5x7.2x
Shareholder returns / FCF29%30%35%67%161%122%
Valuation
EV / sales at year end14.2x6.8x11.1x17.4x8.4x24.6x
P/E at year endn/an/an/an/a26x87x
Returns use average equity and assets. EBITDA = operating income plus depreciation and acquired intangible amortization. Year end valuation uses the January close after each fiscal year end; TTM uses 30 Sep 2026.
Figure 2.3. Operating costs as % of revenue
Table 2.5. Balance sheet, period end
$FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY20261 Aug 2026
Cash and equivalents613.5m911.0m950.8m948.3m2.64bn3.93bn
Accounts receivable1.05bn1.19bn1.12bn1.03bn2.19bn2.22bn
Inventories720.3m1.07bn864.4m1.03bn1.39bn1.36bn
Goodwill11.51bn11.59bn11.59bn11.59bn11.06bn13.87bn
Intangible assets6.15bn5.10bn4.00bn2.71bn1.75bn2.35bn
Total assets22.11bn22.52bn21.23bn20.20bn22.29bn27.55bn
Total debt4.55bn4.49bn4.17bn4.06bn4.47bn4.96bn
Net debt (cash)3.93bn3.58bn3.22bn3.12bn1.83bn1.03bn
Stockholders' equity15.70bn15.64bn14.83bn13.43bn14.31bn18.53bn
Shares outstanding, m846.7856.1865.5866.0847.3876.8
Table 2.6. Senior notes at 1 Aug 2026
CouponMaturityPrincipal
4.875% MTG/MTIJun 2028499.9m
2.450%Apr 2028750.0m
5.750%Feb 2029500.0m
4.750%Jul 2030500.0m
2.950%Apr 2031750.0m
5.950%Sep 2033500.0m
5.450%Jul 2035500.0m
5.300%Apr 20361.00bn
Total senior notes5.00bn
The 1.65% notes due 2026 ($500m) were repaid in Apr 2026; the term loan was repaid in FY2026. A $1.5bn revolving facility is undrawn. Remaining buyback authorization: $5.1bn. Quarterly dividend $0.06.

3 MD&A, guidance and management commentary

Marvell guided Q3 FY2027 revenue to $3.15bn plus or minus 5%, with non GAAP gross margin of 57.5% to 58.5% and non GAAP EPS of $1.10 plus or minus $0.05. Company releases give one quarter of guidance; the annual outlooks come from the earnings call.

Table 3.1. Recent quarters and guidance (earnings releases, Ex 99.1)
ItemQ3 FY2026Q4 FY2026Q1 FY2027Q2 FY2027Q3 FY2027 guide
Revenue$2.07bn$2.22bn$2.42bn$2.74bn$3.15bn
Revenue growth y/y37%22%28%37%52%
Data center revenue (share)$1.52bn (73%)$1.65bn (74%)$1.83bn (76%)$2.17bn (79%)n/a
Gross margin, GAAP / non GAAP51.6% / 59.7%51.7% / 59.0%52.1% / 58.9%53.1% / 58.9%52.9% to 53.9% / 57.5% to 58.5%
Diluted EPS, GAAP / non GAAP$2.20 / 0.76$0.46 / 0.80$0.04 / 0.80$0.33 / 0.94$0.53 / 1.10
Operating cash flow$582.3m$373.7m$638.8m$605.5mn/a
Sources: 8-K 0001835632-25-000193, 0001835632-26-000006, 0001835632-26-000014 and 0001835632-26-000022. Q3 FY2026 GAAP EPS includes the divestiture gain.
  • MD&A, FY2026 10-K. Data center revenue grew 46% on custom products and electro optics; communications and other grew 31%. Operating income was $1.32bn. Cash was $2.64bn and debt $4.47bn at year end; FY2026 buybacks were $2.04bn including a $1bn accelerated repurchase.
  • MD&A, Q2 FY2027 10-Q. Customers in Asia took 84% of Q2 shipments. Distributor A was 44% and Customer A 16% of Q2 revenue. The earn out liability for Celestial AI was $749.5m at 1 Aug 2026.
  • Earnings call, 27 Aug 2026 (company investor materials, summarised from third party transcripts). CEO Matt Murphy raised the FY2027 revenue outlook to about $12bn and FY2028 to about $18bn, with data center growth of about 60% in FY2027. He said custom revenue would more than double in FY2028. CFO Daniel Durn, in the role since 15 Jun 2026, said non GAAP operating margin should reach 38% to 40% in Q4 FY2027.
  • Investor Day. Scheduled for 6 Oct 2026; targets presented there post date this report.

4 Sector and competitor analysis

Marvell's 32.2% year to date growth sits below Credo (114.7%), Astera Labs (99.4%), NVIDIA (95.8%), Broadcom (55.0%) and AMD (44.1%), and above Coherent, Intel and Qualcomm. Its TTM gross margin of 52.2% compares with 68.8% at Broadcom, its closest competitor in custom AI chips, and 74.7% at NVIDIA.

  • Hyperscaler capital spending. Microsoft spent $115.9bn in its year to Jun 2026, Amazon $131.8bn in 2025, Alphabet $91.4bn in 2025 and Meta $69.7bn in 2025 (10-K filings). Combined 2026 guidance is about $720bn to 745bn; Meta's $130bn to 145bn is from its 8-K, the others from earnings calls.
  • Custom silicon. Broadcom reported AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7bn in its Q3 FY2026 and guided $21.7bn for Q4 (8-K releases). Marvell estimated a $94bn data center addressable market by calendar 2028, of which custom XPUs $40.8bn (company blog, Jun 2025).
  • Optics. LightCounting estimates AI cluster Ethernet optics at $26bn in 2026, up from $16.5bn in 2025 (as cited in a POET Technologies SEC filing).
  • China. In Jan 2026 the Commerce Department moved advanced AI chip exports to China to case by case review.
Table 4.1. Peer comparison, TTM to the latest 10-Q (Coherent FY2026); market data at 28 to 30 Sep 2026
CompanyYear endRevenueGrowth YTDGross marginOperating marginFCF marginR&D / revenueMarket cap, $P/E TTM
MarvellFY Jan9.45bn32.2%52.2%16.5%18.3%25.8%231.7bn87x
BroadcomFY Nov89.10bn55.0%68.8%48.0%44.2%13.3%1.70tn44x
NVIDIAFY Jan302.97bn95.8%74.7%65.2%41.9%7.8%5.51tn29x
AMDFY Dec41.30bn44.1%53.2%15.7%20.3%22.7%991.8bn154x
CredoFY Apr1.59bn114.7%67.1%31.7%27.6%21.5%36.8bn68x
Astera LabsFY Dec1.20bn99.4%75.1%22.8%23.0%36.1%60.0bn162x
CoherentFY Jun7.12bn22.5%37.5%10.9%(14.4%)10.2%57.2bn71x
IntelFY Dec57.03bn16.4%38.6%(0.1%)5.0%23.1%626.0bnn/m
QualcommFY Sep44.07bn(0.7%)54.2%23.2%23.6%22.4%196.6bn21x
Growth is the latest fiscal year to date against the prior year period. P/E computed from filed TTM diluted EPS; Marvell TTM EPS includes the divestiture gain. NVIDIA TTM earnings include equity security gains. Coherent operating income is revenue less costs and operating expenses as filed.
Figure 4.1. Revenue growth and gross margin, peers
Figure 4.2. Operating and FCF margin, peers

5 Material events and filings

In the year to Sep 2026 Marvell sold its automotive Ethernet unit, bought Celestial AI and XConn, took a $2bn preferred investment from NVIDIA, signed a custom silicon agreement with Google that carries a warrant, issued $1bn of notes and changed its CFO.

Table 5.1. FY2026 10-K items and Q2 FY2027 10-Q updates
ItemContent
Item 1, BusinessFabless; two end markets since Q4 FY2026; 7,480 employees. Distributor A 37% and Customer A 14% of FY2026 revenue; top ten customers 82%.
Item 1A, Risk factorsNew: AI disrupting the business model, China licence fees and a 25% tariff, the Section 232 semiconductor investigation, government incentive clawbacks, receivables factoring and sustainability. The demand heading now names data center and communications markets. The Q2 FY2027 10-Q adds risks on TSMC supply limits, the NVIDIA preferred stock and Celestial AI earn out dilution.
Item 1C, CybersecurityProgram overseen by the Audit Committee; incidents to date immaterial.
Item 3, Legal proceedingsPending matters described as immaterial.
Item 5, EquityFY2026 buybacks $2.04bn; quarterly dividend $0.06.
Item 9A, ControlsControls effective at 31 Jan 2026; Deloitte & Touche audited internal control.
10-K 0001835632-26-000011; 10-Q 0001835632-26-000025; risk factor comparison against 10-K 0001835632-25-000057.
Table 5.2. Form 8-K events, Jul 2025 to Sep 2026
FiledItemsEvent
25 Sep 20268.01Quarterly dividend of $0.06 a share
27 Aug 20262.02Q2 FY2027 results: revenue $2.74bn (+37%); data center $2.17bn; Q3 guidance $3.15bn
19 Aug 20261.01, 3.02Google custom silicon agreement; warrant for up to 59.0m shares at $206.58
9 Jul 20268.01Legal opinion for a resale prospectus supplement
25 Jun 20265.07, 8.01Annual meeting results; dividend of $0.06 a share
11 Jun 20265.02, 7.01CFO Willem Meintjes resigned; director Daniel Durn appointed CFO from 15 Jun 2026
27 May 20262.02Q1 FY2027 results: revenue $2.42bn (+28%); Q2 guidance $2.70bn
15 Apr 20261.01, 8.01$1bn of 5.300% senior notes due 2036 issued
31 Mar 20263.02, 5.03, 7.01NVIDIA invests $2bn in convertible preferred stock (up to 21.8m shares at about $91.84); NVLink Fusion partnership
19 Mar 20268.01Quarterly dividend of $0.06 a share
19 Mar 20268.01Legal opinion for a resale prospectus supplement
5 Mar 20262.02Q4 FY2026 results: revenue $2.22bn (+22%); FY2026 revenue $8.19bn (+42%)
18 Feb 20268.01Legal opinion for a resale prospectus supplement
6 Feb 20268.01Legal opinion for a resale prospectus supplement
2 Feb 20263.02Amendment: Celestial AI acquisition closed; 24.6m shares issued
12 Dec 20258.01Quarterly dividend of $0.06 a share
2 Dec 20253.02Agreement to acquire Celestial AI for cash, shares and an earn out
2 Dec 20252.02Q3 FY2026 results: revenue $2.07bn (+37%); $1.83bn gain on the automotive Ethernet sale
2 Dec 20258.01Amazon warrant for up to 1.05m shares at $87.00, vesting on photonic fabric purchases
25 Sep 20258.01Open market share purchases by the CEO and three executives on 25 Sep 2025
24 Sep 20258.01$5bn added to the buyback authorization; $1bn accelerated repurchase
19 Sep 20258.01Quarterly dividend of $0.06 a share
28 Aug 20252.02Q2 FY2026 results: revenue $2.01bn (+58%)
14 Aug 20258.01Automotive Ethernet business sold to Infineon for $2.5bn in cash
23 Jul 20255.02Rajiv Ramaswami appointed director
17 Jul 20255.02Chris Koopmans named President and COO; Sandeep Bharathi named President, Data Center Group
43 Form 8-K filings from Jul 2024 to Sep 2026; all are listed with accession numbers in the Sources appendix.

6 Annual shareholder meeting, ownership and insider activity

Annual shareholder meeting, 25 Jun 2026

Shareholders elected all seven directors and approved the auditor. Say on pay passed with 55.9% of for and against votes, down from 83.4% in 2025. A shareholder proposal for an independent board chair received 36.9%. Holders of 710.5m of 897.3m voting shares were represented.

  • Board. Daniel Durn left the board on 10 Jun 2026 to become CFO and was withdrawn as a nominee; Tudor Brown retired. The board fell to seven. Murphy received 96.0%.
  • Pay. Murphy's total pay was $25.1m in FY2026, $32.2m in FY2025 and $45.2m in FY2024, mostly stock awards. The CEO pay ratio was about 158 to 1 (DEF 14A 0001104659-26-060253).
  • Voting shares. NVIDIA's Series A preferred votes on an as converted basis (21.8m shares) on matters other than director elections.
Table 6.1. Proposals and support (for as % of for plus against)
ProposalBoard view20262025Outcome
Say on payFor55.9%83.4%Approved
Ratify Deloitte & ToucheFor99.6%99.5%Approved
Independent board chair (shareholder)Against36.9%38.2%Rejected
Broker non votes: 122.5m in 2026 and 117.2m in 2025. Sources: 8-K 0001628280-26-045564 and 0001193125-25-140767.
Table 6.2. Director elections, support as % of for plus against
Director20262025
Brad W. Buss95.4%96.8%
Matthew J. Murphy96.0%94.8%
Richard P. Wallace97.0%98.2%
Marachel L. Knight98.2%98.9%
Rebecca W. House99.2%98.7%
Rajiv Ramaswami99.8%n/a
Sara Andrews99.9%99.8%

Ownership and insider activity

Insiders sold $49.6m of stock and made zero open market purchases in the twelve months to Sep 2026; $44.3m ran under Rule 10b5-1 plans. A further $148.2m of shares were withheld to pay tax on vesting awards. Schedules 13G at 30 Jun 2026: BlackRock 9.0%, Vanguard Capital Management 7.6%, FMR 6.5%.

Table 6.3. Largest institutional holders from Form 13F, shares m
Holder30 Jun 2026% of shares31 Mar 202631 Dec 2025Change since Dec 2025
BlackRock, Inc.85.649.8%n/a59.8143.2%
Vanguard78.919.0%72.3278.760.2%
FMR LLC56.936.5%131.26126.82(55.1%)
State Street Corp41.834.8%23.3422.8383.2%
Invesco Ltd.30.293.5%28.8129.203.7%
Geode Capital Management21.132.4%12.5812.1174.5%
Goldman Sachs Group14.701.7%11.2510.4640.5%
Norges Bank14.201.6%n/a10.5434.8%
JPMorgan Chase & Co13.891.6%5.824.87185.3%
T. Rowe Price Associates13.831.6%1.701.97601.6%
Holders selected from about 35 large managers; n/a: filing unretrieved. 13F positions combine more reporting entities than the 13G filings, so percentages differ. FMR fell from 14.9% (Dec 2025) to 6.5% (Jun 2026) per 13G.
Table 6.4. Insider sales, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, $m (Form 4)
InsiderRoleSalesOf which 10b5-1
Sandeep BharathiPresident, Data Center Group15.615.6
Matthew MurphyChair and CEO12.612.6
Chris KoopmansPresident and COO11.411.4
Willem MeintjesChief Financial Officer4.74.7
Mark CasperEVP & Chief Legal Officer4.60.0
Daniel DurnChief Financial Officer0.60.0
Total49.644.3
68 Form 4 filings; the 63 with reported transactions are listed in the Sources appendix. Open market purchases: zero. Former CFO Willem Meintjes filed Forms 144 for $61.3m of shares in Jun 2026 after leaving.

7 Share price and valuation history

The EV to sales multiple rose from 8.4x at the Jan 2026 close to 24.6x on TTM revenue and 19.4x the FY2027 revenue outlook. Market capitalization is $231.7bn.

Figure 7.1. Monthly share price 2021 to 2026
Table 7.1. Fiscal year end valuation (January close)
Fiscal yearMarket cap, $bnPrice, $Diluted EPS, $EV / sales
FY2259.470.20(0.53)14.2x
FY2336.542.64(0.19)6.8x
FY2458.267.22(1.08)11.1x
FY2597.3112.40(1.02)17.4x
FY2666.878.863.078.4x
30 Sep 2026231.7264.213.03 TTM24.6x

8 Forward scenarios, FY2028 to FY2030

On model assumptions anchored to the FY2027 revenue outlook of about $12bn, FY2030 core EPS reaches $2.25 (worst), $6.95 (base) and $10.87 (best), against $2.83 for FY2027 on a core basis. Implied values per share at end FY2030 are $40, 209 and 435.

Table 8.1. Scenario assumptions, FY2028 to FY2030
DriverWorstBaseBest
Revenue growth FY2028 / FY2029 / FY203010% / 2% / (5%)45% / 20% / 12%55% / 35% / 25%
Core operating margin FY2028 / FY2029 / FY203024% / 22% / 20%29% / 31% / 32%31% / 34% / 37%
Diluted share count increase a year1.0%0.5%0.5%
Exit P/E on FY2030 core EPS18x30x40x
Common to allFY2027 anchor: revenue $12.0bn (call outlook); core operating income $3.09bn = H1 actual plus H2 at 27% (25.7% margin). Net interest and other $(150)m a year; tax rate 11%; 925m diluted shares in FY2027. Warrant and preferred dilution beyond the stated share growth is excluded.
Table 8.2. Scenario outputs
OutputWorstBaseBest
Revenue FY2030, $bn12.7923.3931.39
Revenue CAGR FY2027 to FY20302.2%24.9%37.8%
Core operating income FY2030, $bn2.567.4811.61
Core EPS FY2028, $2.884.695.38
Core EPS FY2030, $2.256.9510.87
Core EPS CAGR FY2027 to FY2030(7.3%)35.0%56.7%
Implied value end FY2030, $ per share40209435
Change against $264.21(85%)(21%)65%
Annualized, to end FY2030(43.1%)(6.9%)16.1%
Figure 8.1. Scenario EPS paths and implied values

Critical factors behind the best case

Table 8.3. Best case drivers: evidence to date and requirement
FactorEvidence in filings and company materialsBest case requirement
Custom silicon rampsAmazon, Google and NVIDIA agreements; custom revenue expected to more than double in FY2028 (call); Google warrant vests per $500m of custom revenueRevenue growth of 55%, 35% and 25%, above the call outlook for FY2028
Optics and interconnect800G strong, 1.6T DSP ramping; Celestial AI revenue targets of $500m and $1bn run rates by Q4 FY2028 and Q4 FY2029Electro optics keeps share as clusters move to 1.6T and co packaged optics
Margin expansionCore operating margin 26.2% TTM; non GAAP operating margin guided to 38% to 40% in Q4 FY2027Core margin reaches 37% by FY2030 as operating expenses grow slower than revenue
SupplyTSMC sole advanced node foundry; purchase commitments $8.52bn; about $1bn of capacity prepayments plannedSupply meets demand without margin dilution
Concentration and ChinaDistributor A 44% and Customer A 16% of Q2 FY2027 revenue; China 41% of TTM shipmentsProgram wins broaden; export rules stay as in Sep 2026
Valuation multipleP/E 67x forward non GAAP EPSExit P/E 40x on FY2030 core EPS

Core assumptions and demand drivers

  • Demand. Base case growth of 45% in FY2028 sits just below the call outlook of about $18bn, then slows to 20% and 12%. The worst case assumes 10% growth in FY2028, 2% in FY2029 and a 5% decline in FY2030 as hyperscaler spending slows or customers move designs in house.
  • Margin. Core margin includes stock compensation (8.8% of TTM revenue) and excludes acquired intangible amortization. Base case margin rises from 25.7% in FY2027 to 32% in FY2030.
  • Per share. Diluted shares grow 0.5% to 1.0% a year; the Google warrant (59.0m shares) and NVIDIA preferred (21.8m shares) are excluded.
  • Excluded. Further acquisitions, changes in export rules, earn out remeasurements and one off items.

9 Sensitivity analysis

In Figure 9.1, 5 of 25 combinations of exit P/E and FY2030 core margin give a value at or above today's $264.21: 40x with 32%, 35x with 36%, 40x with 36%, 35x with 40%, 40x with 40%. In Table 9.1, 5 of 25 combinations of revenue CAGR and margin reach today's price at 30x.

Figure 9.1. Sensitivity of value to exit P/E and margin
Figure 9.2. One driver sensitivity
Table 9.1. Value per share, end FY2030, by revenue CAGR and FY2030 core margin, 30x exit P/E
Margin \ CAGR10%17%24%31%38%
24%105127152180211
28%123149178211247
32%141171204241283
36%159192230272319
40%177214256303354
Shading: values at or above $264.21 in blue.
  • Gross margin mix. Management guided Q3 FY2027 non GAAP gross margin lower, to 57.5% to 58.5%, on a higher custom product mix.
  • Dilution. If the Google warrant vests in full and the NVIDIA preferred converts, about 80.8m shares would be added, 9.2% of shares outstanding.
  • Rates. Senior notes are fixed rate; the first maturities are $1.25bn in 2028.

Appendix: method, sources and definitions

  • Data. Financial statements from XBRL in the 10-K for FY2022 to FY2026 and 10-Q filings for Q1 FY2025 to Q2 FY2027, retrieved through the SEC-API.io MCP server. Q4 figures equal the full year less the nine month year to date; quarterly cash flows are derived from year to date statements.
  • Other sources. Earnings call of 27 Aug 2026 from third party transcript summaries. Peer data from peer 10-K and 10-Q filings. Sector data: hyperscaler 10-K and 8-K filings, Broadcom releases, Commerce Department, LightCounting as cited in an SEC filing. Market prices: 28 to 30 Sep 2026.
  • Definitions. FCF = operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment. Core earnings are GAAP excluding the items in Table 2.3. Net debt = total debt less cash.
  • Scenario model. EPS = (revenue x core margin less $150m) x (1 less 11%) over diluted shares. Implied value = FY2030 EPS x exit P/E, undiscounted. Company guidance covers Q3 FY2027 only.

Sources

Table A.1. Annual, quarterly and proxy filings (central index key 1835632)
FormPeriod or eventAccession number
10-KFY20220001835632-22-000016
10-KFY20230001835632-23-000013
10-KFY20240001835632-24-000009
10-KFY20250001835632-25-000057
10-KFY20260001835632-26-000011
10-QQ1 FY20250001835632-24-000063
10-QQ2 FY20250001835632-24-000142
10-QQ3 FY20250001835632-24-000200
10-QQ1 FY20260001835632-25-000117
10-QQ2 FY20260001835632-25-000189
10-QQ3 FY20260001835632-25-000197
10-QQ1 FY20270001835632-26-000019
10-QQ2 FY20270001835632-26-000025
DEF 14A2026 proxy statement0001104659-26-060253
DEF 14A2025 proxy statement0001104659-25-043088
Table A.2. Forms 8-K
FormPeriod or eventAccession number
8-K25 Sep 2026, items 8.01, 9.010001628280-26-063592
8-K27 Aug 2026, items 2.02, 9.010001835632-26-000022
8-K19 Aug 2026, items 1.01, 3.02, 9.010001193125-26-356217
8-K9 Jul 2026, items 8.01, 9.010001193125-26-299843
8-K25 Jun 2026, items 5.07, 8.01, 9.010001628280-26-045564
8-K11 Jun 2026, items 5.02, 7.01, 9.010001193125-26-267688
8-K27 May 2026, items 2.02, 9.010001835632-26-000014
8-K15 Apr 2026, items 1.01, 8.01, 9.010001193125-26-157134
8-K31 Mar 2026, items 3.02, 5.03, 7.01, 9.010001193125-26-134462
8-K19 Mar 2026, items 8.01, 9.010001628280-26-019851
8-K19 Mar 2026, items 8.01, 9.010001193125-26-115987
8-K5 Mar 2026, items 2.02, 9.010001835632-26-000006
8-K18 Feb 2026, items 8.01, 9.010001193125-26-055923
8-K6 Feb 2026, items 8.01, 9.010001193125-26-040202
8-K2 Feb 2026, items 3.02, 9.010001193125-26-032861
8-K12 Dec 2025, items 8.01, 9.010001628280-25-056774
8-K2 Dec 2025, items 3.02, 9.010001193125-25-305289
8-K2 Dec 2025, items 2.02, 9.010001835632-25-000193
8-K2 Dec 2025, items 8.010001193125-25-305271
8-K25 Sep 2025, items 8.010001193125-25-217311
8-K24 Sep 2025, items 8.01, 9.010001193125-25-214314
8-K19 Sep 2025, items 8.01, 9.010001193125-25-209108
8-K28 Aug 2025, items 2.02, 9.010001835632-25-000187
8-K14 Aug 2025, items 8.01, 9.010001193125-25-180425
8-K23 Jul 2025, items 5.02, 9.010001193125-25-163086
8-K17 Jul 2025, items 5.020001193125-25-160597
8-K30 Jun 2025, items 1.01, 8.01, 9.010001193125-25-152676
8-K20 Jun 2025, items 5.020001193125-25-143288
8-K13 Jun 2025, items 5.07, 8.01, 9.010001193125-25-140767
8-K29 May 2025, items 2.02, 9.010001835632-25-000115
8-K6 May 2025, items 2.02, 9.010001193125-25-113881
8-K14 Apr 2025, items 5.02, 9.010001193125-25-079772
8-K7 Apr 2025, items 8.01, 9.010001193125-25-074816
8-K21 Mar 2025, items 8.01, 9.010001835632-25-000068
8-K12 Mar 2025, items 8.01, 9.010001193125-25-053027
8-K5 Mar 2025, items 2.02, 9.010001835632-25-000051
8-K13 Dec 2024, items 8.01, 9.010001835632-24-000211
8-K3 Dec 2024, items 2.02, 9.010001835632-24-000197
8-K2 Dec 2024, items 7.01, 8.010001835632-24-000193
8-K18 Sep 2024, items 5.02, 9.010001104659-24-101069
8-K16 Sep 2024, items 5.010001835632-24-000151
8-K13 Sep 2024, items 8.01, 9.010001835632-24-000145
8-K29 Aug 2024, items 2.02, 9.010001835632-24-000140
Table A.3. Schedules 13G
FormPeriod or eventAccession number
SC 13G/AFMR LLC, 2026-08-060000315066-26-002090
SC 13G/AVanguard Capital Management, 2026-07-310002100119-26-001498
SC 13G/ABlackRock, Inc., 2026-07-290002012383-26-002903
SC 13G/AFMR LLC, 2026-06-050000315066-26-001414
SC 13GVanguard Capital Management, 2026-04-300002100119-26-000854
SC 13G/AThe Vanguard Group, 2026-03-270000102909-26-001722
SC 13G/AFMR LLC, 2026-02-050000315066-26-000494
SC 13G/AThe Vanguard Group, 2025-10-310000102909-25-000229
SC 13G/AFMR LLC, 2025-08-060000315066-25-002055
SC 13G/AThe Vanguard Group, 2025-01-300000932471-25-000191
Table A.4. Forms 13F
FormPeriod or eventAccession number
13F-HRBlackrock, Inc., period 2026-06-300002012383-26-003238
13F-HRBlackrock, Inc., period 2025-12-310002012383-26-000920
13F-HRBlackrock, Inc., period 2025-09-300002012383-25-002949
13F-HRVanguard Capital Management Llc, period 2026-06-300002100119-26-001527
13F-HRVanguard Portfolio Management Llc, period 2026-06-300002100121-26-001018
13F-HR/AVanguard Capital Management Llc, period 2026-03-310002100119-26-001311
13F-HRVanguard Portfolio Management Llc, period 2026-03-310002100121-26-000861
13F-HRVanguard Group Inc, period 2025-12-310000102909-26-000031
13F-HRVanguard Group Inc, period 2025-09-300000102909-25-000353
13F-HRFmr Llc, period 2026-06-300000315066-26-002260
13F-HRFmr Llc, period 2026-03-310000315066-26-001390
13F-HRFmr Llc, period 2025-12-310000315066-26-000611
13F-HRFmr Llc, period 2025-09-300000315066-25-002929
13F-HR/AState Street Corp, period 2026-06-300000093751-26-000583
13F-HRState Street Corp, period 2026-03-310000093751-26-000315
13F-HRState Street Corp, period 2025-12-310000093751-26-000100
13F-HRState Street Corp, period 2025-09-300000093751-25-000651
13F-HRInvesco Ltd., period 2026-06-300000914208-26-000343
13F-HRInvesco Ltd., period 2026-03-310000914208-26-000193
13F-HR/AInvesco Ltd., period 2026-03-310000914208-26-000216
13F-HRInvesco Ltd., period 2025-12-310000914208-26-000071
13F-HR/AInvesco Ltd., period 2025-12-310000914208-26-000214
13F-HRInvesco Ltd., period 2025-09-300000914208-25-000430
13F-HRGeode Capital Management, Llc, period 2026-06-300001214717-26-000008
13F-HRGeode Capital Management, Llc, period 2026-03-310001214717-26-000006
13F-HRGeode Capital Management, Llc, period 2025-12-310001214717-26-000003
13F-HRGeode Capital Management, Llc, period 2025-09-300001214717-25-000016
13F-HRGoldman Sachs Group Inc, period 2026-06-300000886982-26-000519
13F-HRGoldman Sachs Group Inc, period 2026-03-310000886982-26-000274
13F-HR/AGoldman Sachs Group Inc, period 2025-12-310000886982-26-000093
13F-HRGoldman Sachs Group Inc, period 2025-09-300000886982-25-001521
13F-HRNorges Bank, period 2026-06-300001374170-26-000069
13F-HRNorges Bank, period 2025-12-310001374170-26-000012
13F-HRJpmorgan Chase & Co, period 2026-06-300000019617-26-000325
13F-HR/AJpmorgan Chase & Co, period 2026-03-310000019617-26-000225
13F-HRJpmorgan Chase & Co, period 2025-12-310000019617-26-000083
13F-HRPrice T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2026-06-300000080255-26-000519
13F-HRPrice T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2026-03-310000080255-26-000381
13F-HRPrice T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2025-12-310000080255-26-000231
13F-HRPrice T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2025-09-300000080255-25-000782
Forms 4, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026 (63 accession numbers with reported transactions): 0001193125-26-032163, 0001628280-25-045262, 0001628280-25-045272, 0001628280-25-045278, 0001628280-25-045335, 0001628280-25-045413, 0001628280-25-052721, 0001628280-25-055852, 0001628280-25-057217, 0001628280-25-057218, 0001628280-25-057220, 0001628280-25-057223, 0001628280-26-001239, 0001628280-26-002597, 0001628280-26-002648, 0001628280-26-002654, 0001628280-26-002745, 0001628280-26-002747, 0001628280-26-005414, 0001628280-26-021531, 0001628280-26-021836, 0001628280-26-023325, 0001628280-26-023978, 0001628280-26-024047, 0001628280-26-025578, 0001628280-26-025580, 0001628280-26-025592, 0001628280-26-025671, 0001628280-26-025675, 0001628280-26-025698, 0001628280-26-026152, 0001628280-26-029789, 0001628280-26-034988, 0001628280-26-035865, 0001628280-26-036627, 0001628280-26-037488, 0001628280-26-037497, 0001628280-26-039656, 0001628280-26-042758, 0001628280-26-043182, 0001628280-26-043498, 0001628280-26-043503, 0001628280-26-044030, 0001628280-26-044066, 0001628280-26-044905, 0001628280-26-045950, 0001628280-26-045952, 0001628280-26-045954, 0001628280-26-045956, 0001628280-26-045970, 0001628280-26-046114, 0001628280-26-046627, 0001628280-26-048541, 0001628280-26-048543, 0001628280-26-048546, 0001628280-26-048548, 0001628280-26-048556, 0001628280-26-051905, 0001628280-26-057399, 0001628280-26-057525, 0001628280-26-060112, 0001628280-26-062124, 0001628280-26-062334. All are on EDGAR under central index key 1835632.
Table A.5. Peer filings used
CompanyFilingAccession number
BroadcomFY2025 10-K0001730168-25-000121
BroadcomFY2024 10-K0001730168-24-000139
BroadcomQ3 FY2026 10-Q0001730168-26-000080
BroadcomQ4 FY2025 8K EX990001730168-25-000116
BroadcomQ1 FY2026 8K EX990001730168-26-000011
BroadcomQ2 FY2026 8K EX990001730168-26-000051
BroadcomQ3 FY2026 8K EX990001730168-26-000076
NVIDIAFY2026 10-K0001045810-26-000021
NVIDIAFY2025 10-K0001045810-25-000023
NVIDIAQ2 FY2027 10-Q0001045810-26-000075
AMDFY2025 10-K0000002488-26-000018
AMDFY2025 10-K/A0000002488-26-000021
AMDFY2024 10-K0000002488-25-000012
AMDQ2 2026 10-Q0000002488-26-000123
CredoFY2026 10-K0001628280-26-043303
CredoFY2025 10-K0001628280-25-033813
CredoQ1 FY2027 10-Q0001628280-26-060111
Astera LabsFY2025 10-K0001736297-26-000010
Astera LabsFY2024 10-K0001736297-25-000003
Astera LabsQ2 2026 10-Q0001736297-26-000035
CoherentFY2026 10-K0000820318-26-000020
CoherentFY2025 10-K0000820318-25-000014
IntelFY2025 10-K0000050863-26-000011
IntelFY2024 10-K0000050863-25-000009
IntelQ2 2026 10-Q0000050863-26-000157
QualcommFY2025 10-K0000804328-25-000085
QualcommFY2024 10-K0000804328-24-000075
QualcommQ3 FY2026 10-Q0000804328-26-000086
Disclaimer: for information only, not financial advice. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Figures come from SEC filings retrieved through the SEC-API.io MCP server and from the sources named above. Scenario values are arithmetic results of stated assumptions. Consult a licensed adviser before investing.

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