October 25, 2026·24 min read

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX), Financial Analysis

Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.

Figures are read from the Form S-1 of 20 May 2026 and the Form 424B4 prospectus covering FY2023 to FY2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q2 2026 and Q3 2026, the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the underwriting agreement (Ex 1.1), charter and bylaws (Ex 3.1, 3.2), Cursor merger agreement (Ex 10.1), notes indenture (Ex 4.1) and quarterly earnings exhibits 99.1, the Forms S-8, Schedules 13G and Forms 3, 4 and 144 on the record for central index key 1181412, as SpaceX listed on 12 June 2026 and has filed no Form 10-K or proxy statement, together with the comparable filings of six peers. Accession numbers for every filing used appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are closing prices of 23 October 2026.

Revenue Q3 2026

$14.6bn

+161% on Q3 2025

Operating income Q3 2026

$2.8bn

19.1% margin; Q3 2025 ($0.3bn)

Free cash flow TTM

($39.2bn)

capex TTM $55.0bn

Net cash 30 Sep 2026

$51.0bn

cash and securities $89.9bn

Market value

$2.0tn

EV/Sales TTM 60.9x

Key findings

Q3 2026 revenue $14.6bn, +161% year on year. SI (AI) segment $7.6bn, +830%, now 51.9% of revenue; Connectivity (Starlink) $5.2bn, +69%; Space $1.8bn, +6%.
First quarterly operating profit since listing: $2.8bn, 19.1% margin. Net income $4.4bn includes $0.9bn interest income, $1.0bn other income and $0.4bn tax benefit.
Guidance Q1 2027 revenue $33bn to $37bn, against $14.6bn in Q3 2026, and Q4 2026 capex $35bn to $40bn after $19.6bn in Q3.
Capital intensity: capex $48.1bn in 9M 2026 against operating cash flow $13.1bn. IPO net proceeds $85.7bn and $25bn notes fund the gap; net cash $51.0bn at 30 Sep 2026.
Concentration: one customer (Customer B) 34.5% of Q3 2026 revenue; backlog $63.0bn, 67% due within 12 months.
Shares trade at 60.9x TTM EV/Sales. Base case scenario (100% revenue CAGR, 25% operating margin, 30x P/E) implies $112 in three years against $147.49; best case $294, worst case $23.

1 Revenue & Business Model

Three segments since Q1 2026. Space (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, Dragon, Starship), Connectivity (Starlink broadband, Starlink Mobile, Starshield) and SI, renamed from AI in Q3 2026 (Grok, X, compute cloud services, Cursor from 14 Aug 2026).
History is recast. xAI merged into SpaceX on 2 Feb 2026 and X Holdings into xAI on 28 Mar 2025 as common control transactions, so FY2023 to FY2025 include X and xAI. A 5 for 1 stock split took effect on 4 May 2026.
Revenue FY2023 $10.4bn, FY2024 $14.0bn, FY2025 $18.7bn, TTM Q3 2026 $32.0bn. Connectivity grew from $3.9bn in FY2023 to $11.4bn in FY2025, 61.0% of FY2025 revenue.
Q3 2026 mix shifted to SI: 51.9% of revenue against 14.6% in Q3 2025. SI solutions and infrastructure (compute sold to third parties plus Cursor) reached $7.0bn in Q3 2026 from $0.4bn a year earlier; Cursor added $608m.
Connectivity carries segment profit. Q3 2026 Connectivity operating income $2.4bn at 45.1% margin; SI $0.4bn at 5.7% after $1.2bn Cursor related stock compensation; Space ($7m).
Starlink: 13.6m consumer subscribers at Q3 2026, +88.9% year on year; consumer ARPU $69 per month against $83 in Q3 2025 as lower priced plans and international markets grow.
Compute: 1.7 GW nameplate at 30 Sep 2026 against 0.6 GW a year earlier; Q3 2026 SI capex $16.4bn, 84% of group capex.
USA 69% of FY2025 revenue ($13.0bn), Ireland $1.8bn, Canada $0.8bn, other countries $3.1bn.

Figure 1.2 Revenue by segment, quarterly ($bn)

Figure 1.3 Revenue by country of origin, share of total

Figure 1.4 Starlink consumer subscribers (m, period end)

Figure 1.5 Nameplate AI compute capacity (GW, period end)

Table 1.1 Operating metrics, latest four reported periods

Metric	Values by period
Starlink consumer subscribers (millions, period end)	FY2025: 8.9; Q1 2026: 10.3; Q2 2026: 12.0; Q3 2026: 13.6
Starlink consumer ARPU ($ per month)	FY2025: 81.0; Q1 2026: 66.0; Q2 2026: 66.0; Q3 2026: 69.0
Total launches (count)	Q3 2025: 44.0; Q1 2026: 40.0; Q2 2026: 38.0; Q3 2026: 35.0
Mass to orbit (metric tons)	Q3 2025: 525.0; Q1 2026: 556.0; Q2 2026: 485.0; Q3 2026: 476.0
Nameplate compute (GW, period end)	FY2025: 0.8; Q1 2026: 1.0; Q2 2026: 1.4; Q3 2026: 1.7
Backlog / remaining performance obligations ($m)	FY2025: 28,377.0; Q2 2026: 47,500.0; Q3 2026: 62,959.0
Customer B share of revenue (%)	Q3 2026: 34.5; 9M 2026: 24.2
Customer A share of revenue (%)	FY2023: 25.2; FY2024: 24.2; FY2025: 20.9; Q3 2026: 16.6

Table 1.2 Segment revenue, operating income and margin, last four quarters

Segment	Q4 2025	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026
Space revenue ($bn)	0.81	0.62	0.96	1.77
Space operating income ($bn)	(0.48)	(0.66)	(0.54)	(0.01)
Space operating margin (%)	(58.8)	(106.9)	(56.3)	(0.4)
Connectivity revenue ($bn)	3.23	3.26	4.29	5.25
Connectivity operating income ($bn)	1.28	1.19	1.66	2.37
Connectivity operating margin (%)	39.5	36.5	38.6	45.1
SI (AI) revenue ($bn)	0.92	0.82	2.56	7.56
SI (AI) operating income ($bn)	(2.17)	(2.47)	(1.26)	0.43
SI (AI) operating margin (%)	(235.4)	(301.8)	(49.1)	5.7

Table 1.3 Capital expenditure by segment, 2026

Segment	Q1 2026	Q2 2026	Q3 2026
Space capex ($bn)	1.05	1.17	1.61
Connectivity capex ($bn)	1.33	1.37	1.54
SI (AI) capex ($bn)	7.72	15.83	16.44

2 Financial Analysis & Ratios

Operating result turned positive in Q3 2026. Operating income $2.8bn (19.1%) against losses of $1.9bn in Q1 2026 and $0.1bn in Q2 2026; gross margin 62.4% against 51.5% in Q3 2025.
FY2025 operating loss $2.6bn on revenue $18.7bn, after R&D of $8.6bn (46.3% of revenue, against 24.7% in FY2024); FY2023 included a $3.8bn impairment of X intangibles.
Q3 2026 net income $4.4bn exceeds operating income by $1.6bn: interest income $873m on IPO cash, other income $1.0bn ($561m unrealized gain on a related party investee, plus digital asset gains) and a $390m tax benefit.
Capex rose to $55.0bn TTM from $11.2bn in FY2024; capex reached 171.5% of TTM revenue. Operating cash flow TTM $15.8bn; free cash flow TTM ($39.2bn).
Equity rose at the IPO: $176.8bn at 30 Sep 2026 against $2.6bn at FY2025, after conversion of $38.8bn redeemable preferred stock, IPO net proceeds of $85.7bn and Cursor shares issued.
Debt principal $38.0bn at 30 Sep 2026, with no material principal due before 15 Jul 2031; $25bn notes priced in June 2026 at a 5.855% weighted coupon. Related party sale leaseback debt to Valor rose to $12.9bn from $4.5bn at FY2025.
Adjusted EBITDA Q3 2026 $8.8bn (60.4% of revenue) against GAAP operating income $2.8bn; differences are D&A $3.6bn and stock compensation $2.4bn.

Table 2.1 Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet summary ($bn unless stated)

Line item	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM Q3 2026
Revenue	10.4	14.0	18.7	32.0
Gross profit	4.3	6.0	9.2	18.2
Research and development	2.1	3.5	8.6	14.5
Selling, general and administrative	1.7	1.8	2.6	4.3
Operating income	(3.5)	0.5	(2.6)	(0.7)
Net income	(4.6)	0.8	(4.9)	(2.8)
Diluted EPS ($)	(1.68)	0.00	(1.69)	n/a
Operating cash flow	4.5	5.8	6.8	15.8
Capital expenditure	(4.4)	(11.2)	(20.7)	(55.0)
Free cash flow	0.1	(5.4)	(14.0)	(39.2)
Stock based compensation	0.7	0.8	1.9	4.7
Cash and investments	n/a	12.2	24.7	89.9
Total debt	n/a	13.8	22.9	38.8
Total equity	4.0	4.9	2.6	176.8

TTM Q3 2026 sums Q4 2025 and 9M 2026; Q4 2025 equals FY2025 less 9M 2025. FY2023 balance sheet lines other than equity are not disclosed in the prospectus. TTM EPS is n/a because share count rose about four times during 2026.

Figure 2.1 Quarterly revenue and margins

Table 2.2 What changed, Q3 2026 against Q3 2025

Metric	Q3 2025	Q3 2026	Change
Revenue ($bn)	5.58	14.57	161.4%
Gross profit ($bn)	2.87	9.10	216.9%
Operating income ($bn)	(0.27)	2.79	1,122.3%
Net income ($bn)	(1.05)	4.40	517.8%
Diluted EPS ($)	(0.36)	0.35	197.2%
Operating cash flow ($bn)	3.77	9.63	155.5%
Free cash flow ($bn)	(3.11)	(9.96)	(220.1%)
Operating margin (%)	(4.9)	19.1	24.0 pts
Net margin (%)	(18.9)	30.2	49.1 pts

Table 2.3 Ratio analysis

Ratio	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM Q3 2026
Growth and margins
Revenue growth (%)	n/a	34.9	33.2	n/a
Gross margin (%)	41.2	42.9	49.4	56.7
Operating margin (%)	(33.7)	3.3	(13.9)	(2.1)
Net margin (%)	(44.6)	5.6	(26.4)	(8.6)
FCF margin (%)	1.0	(38.4)	(74.7)	(122.3)
Cost and investment intensity
R&D (%) revenue	20.3	24.7	46.3	45.2
SBC (%) revenue	6.5	5.6	10.4	14.8
Capex (%) revenue	42.5	79.7	111.0	171.5
Returns
ROE (%)	(117.1)	17.9	(132.8)	(1.6)
ROA (%)	n/a	1.4	(6.6)	(1.1)
ROIC (%)	(72.7)	5.9	(294.0)	(0.4)
Asset turnover (x)	n/a	0.25	0.20	0.13
Liquidity and leverage
Current ratio (x)	n/a	1.37	1.45	3.08
Debt to equity (x)	n/a	2.84	8.90	0.22
Net cash ($bn)	n/a	(1.6)	1.9	51.0
Efficiency and cash quality
Days sales outstanding	n/a	27	31	54
FCF to net income (x)	n/a	(6.81)	n/a	n/a

TTM balance sheet column uses 30 Sep 2026. ROE and ROA for FY2025 reflect equity of $2.6bn before conversion of $38.8bn preferred stock.

Figure 2.3 Operating cash flow, capital expenditure and free cash flow

Table 2.4 Valuation snapshot at $147.49 per share, 23 Oct 2026

Measure	Value
Market cap ($bn)	2,002.8
Enterprise value ($bn)	1,951.8
EV/Sales (TTM) (x)	60.9
EV/EBITDA (TTM) (x)	191.7
FCF yield (%)	(2.0)
Price/Book (x)	11.3

3 MD&A & Management Commentary

Latest earnings call and results release

Q3 2026 results (20 Oct 2026): revenue $14.6bn against consensus of about $12.6bn; diluted EPS $0.35 against about $0.10; shares closed at $147.79 that day and $147.49 on 23 Oct 2026.
Compute: 1.7 GW at 30 Sep 2026, about 2.2 GW at end October, 2.5 to 3 GW at end 2026 and about 13 GW at end 2027; compute priced above $50 per watt.
Cloud services: management targets a $100bn annualized revenue run rate based on December 2026 revenue; Grok enterprise customers above $1m run rate rose 50% on Q2 2026.
Starlink: 1.6m net consumer additions in Q3 2026 (1.7m in Q2), limited by kit inventory; Starlink Mobile monthly users 22m, +37% on Q2 2026; aviation contracts cover about 12,000 aircraft, 3,800 equipped.
Starship: Flight 14, the first orbital flight, delivered 26 V3 Starlink satellites; management plans a booster and ship catch on Flight 15, weekly flights in H1 2027 and twice weekly in H2 2027.
Tesla: boards of SpaceX and Tesla each formed a special committee to evaluate a possible combination; no terms are agreed. Elon Musk described himself on the call as a conflicted party.
CEO aspiration, not guidance: annual recurring revenue of $500bn to $1tn by end 2027, upper end dependent on compute.
Q2 2026 call (4 Aug 2026): revenue $7.8bn (+92%), $14.1bn of cloud services contracts signed, $6.7bn six month cloud contract added in early Q3, over $6bn of US government Starshield awards, Cursor deal agreed at $60bn implied equity value.

Table 3.1 Company outlook as filed or stated on the call

Item	Outlook	Source
Q1 2027 revenue	$33bn to $37bn	Q3 2026 call, CFO
Q4 2026 capital expenditure	$35bn to $40bn	Q3 2026 call, CFO
Q4 2026 gross margin	back to Q2 2026 level; Q3 Connectivity margin included about 3 points from a one time tariff refund	Q3 2026 call
Nameplate compute	2.5 to 3 GW end 2026; about 13 GW end 2027	Q3 2026 call
Cloud services run rate	$100bn annualized, on December 2026 revenue	Q2 and Q3 2026 calls
Backlog conversion	$63.0bn backlog; 67% within 12 months, 27% in months 13 to 36	10-Q Q3 2026, Note 3
EchoStar spectrum closing	expected 30 Nov 2027; $19.6bn total, of which $11.1bn in SPCX stock (261.8m shares)	10-Q Q3 2026
Starbase Louisiana	first launch targeted for 2029	8-K 20 Oct 2026, Ex 99.1

Management and CFO commentary

CFO Bret Johnsen, IPO roadshow (4 Jun 2026): long term targets of about 70% gross margin and about 45% net margin, against 49% and about (26%) in the prior year; AI took most capex over the prior two years.
CFO, Q2 2026 release and call (4 Aug 2026): capex in Q3 and Q4 2026 expected similar to Q2 ($18.4bn, of which AI $15.8bn); more than 2 GW of compute by end 2026; $100bn annualized revenue run rate in December 2026 including Cursor; new compute deployments with payback under one year.
CFO, Q3 2026 release and call (20 Oct 2026): priorities named as capital efficiency, return on invested capital and an investment grade balance sheet; Q4 2026 capex $35bn to $40bn; Q1 2027 revenue $33bn to $37bn based on the compute contract pipeline.
CEO Elon Musk, Q2 2026 call: about 20 GW of power and cooling online by end 2027; the $1tn revenue milestone moved from 2031 to 2030; about 10% of compute for internal Grok training; compute monetized at about $30 to $50 per watt.
President Gwynne Shotwell, Q2 2026 call: Starlink in 167 markets with about 10,200 operational satellites and about 800 Tbps of downlink capacity; next generation mobile satellites fly in 2027 with service from end 2027; crewed Moon landing planned for 2028.
Q3 2026 call: Elon Musk set an aspiration of $500bn to $1tn of annual recurring revenue by end 2027; Gwynne Shotwell plans a Starship second stage reflight and orbital refueling attempt in early 2027.

Table 3.2 Management statements in their own words

Speaker	Date and source	Statement
Gwynne Shotwell, President and COO	4 Aug 2026, Q2 2026 call	“We have never lost an enterprise customer.”
Bret Johnsen, CFO	20 Oct 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1	“a clear inflection in our Super Intelligence business”
Elon Musk, CEO	4 Aug 2026, Q2 2026 call	“Terrestrial data centers are a trivial problem compared to making gigantic reusable rockets”

Table 3.3 Key disclosures from the Form 424B4 and the Q3 2026 Form 10-Q

Item	Disclosure
424B4, revenue concentration	Customer A was 25.2% of revenue in FY2023, 24.2% in FY2024 and 20.9% in FY2025. In Q3 2026 Customer B was 34.5% of revenue and one customer held 27.7% of receivables.
424B4, debt	Debt and finance leases $23.3bn principal at FY2025, mainly X and xAI term loans and notes at up to 12.5%. All refinanced with a $20bn bridge loan in March 2026, then repaid with $25bn notes; loss on extinguishment $1.5bn in 9M 2026.
424B4, commitments	Non cancelable commitments $25.5bn at FY2025, of which $21.5bn due in 2027 (AI infrastructure, third party cloud capacity, EchoStar spectrum). $37.8bn at 30 Sep 2026.
424B4, related parties	Tesla Megapack purchases $506m in FY2025 and Cybertrucks $131m. Valor (director Antonio Gracias) sale leaseback debt $12.9bn at 30 Sep 2026; related party interest $864m in 9M 2026.
424B4, executive awards	January 2026: Elon Musk granted 1bn restricted Class B shares in 15 tranches tied to market value of $500bn to $7.5tn and a Mars colony of one million people. March 2026: 302.1m restricted Class B shares tied to market value of $1.065tn to $6.565tn and 100 TW per year of compute outside Earth.
10-Q Q3 2026, MD&A	Revenue +161.4%: SI +$6.7bn, Connectivity +$2.2bn (subscribers +88.9%, consumer ARPU (16.9%)), Space +$0.1bn. R&D $4.6bn (+100.6%) includes $1.0bn acquisition related stock compensation.
10-Q Q3 2026, Cursor	GAAP purchase consideration $42.5bn; goodwill $36.6bn; $23.4bn of compensation tied to post acquisition service, recognized over vesting.
10-Q Q3 2026, liquidity	Cash $51.3bn plus securities $38.6bn; undrawn $5bn revolver to 2031. 9M 2026 operating cash flow $13.1bn, capex $48.1bn, IPO proceeds $85.7bn, debt proceeds $51.8bn, repayments $39.8bn.
10-Q Q3 2026, tax	Q3 tax benefit $390m from partial valuation allowance release; release of a large part of the US valuation allowance is reasonably possible.
10-Q Q3 2026, legal	Litigation reserve $350m. Matters include an EU Digital Services Act fine of EUR 120m on X (appealed), a $105m patent verdict plus interest (appeal), Dutch GDPR class actions, Grok image generation suits and Mississippi stormwater notices at data center sites.

4 Sector & Competitor Analysis

Sector scope: launch, satellite connectivity and AI compute. SpaceX flew 170 launches in FY2025 (138 in FY2024, 98 in FY2023) and put 2,213 metric tons into orbit.
Starlink scale: about 9,600 broadband satellites were about 75% of active maneuverable satellites at 31 Mar 2026; over 11,100 Starlink satellites at 30 Sep 2026 under a wider definition.
Company market estimate (424B4): $28.5tn addressable market, of which Space $370bn, Connectivity $1.6tn and AI $26.5tn; figures exclude China and Russia.
Growth: SPCX revenue +97.5% in 9M 2026, against Rocket Lab +62.7% (H1 2026), Lockheed Martin +7.4%, Iridium +4.8%, Viasat (1.2%) and EchoStar (4.6%).
Margins: SPCX TTM operating margin (2.1%) against Lockheed Martin 11.8% and Iridium 19.0%; SPCX gross margin 56.7% against Rocket Lab 37.3% and Lockheed Martin 11.7%.
Valuation: SPCX 60.9x TTM EV/Sales, against Rocket Lab 38.0x, Iridium 7.5x, EchoStar 2.9x, Viasat 2.8x and Lockheed Martin 1.9x.
Spectrum: EchoStar is selling AWS-4, H Block and AWS-3 licenses to SpaceX for $19.6bn (FCC approval 12 May 2026); the FCC approved 15,000 Starlink Mobile V2 satellites.

Table 4.1 Peer comparison, latest reported trailing twelve months

Company	Revenue TTM ($bn)	Revenue growth (%)	Gross margin (%)	Operating margin (%)	Net margin (%)	FCF margin (%)	ROE (%)	Net cash ($bn)	Market value ($bn)	EV/Sales (x)	P/E TTM (x)
SPCX	32.0	97.5	56.7	(2.1)	(8.6)	(122.3)	(1.6)	51.0	2,003	60.9	n/a
RKLB	0.8	62.7	37.3	(29.1)	(21.5)	(48.3)	(4.7)	2.3	32	38.0	n/a
ASTS	0.1	n/a	n/a	(519.4)	(536.7)	(1,420.6)	(25.8)	(0.7)	16	140.2	n/a
IRDM	0.9	4.8	n/a	19.0	18.1	30.7	28.2	(2.0)	5	7.5	28.9
ECHO	14.7	(4.6)	n/a	(112.7)	(39.8)	(4.9)	(41.2)	(16.9)	26	2.9	n/a
VSAT	4.6	(1.2)	n/a	2.4	(0.6)	12.5	(0.6)	(4.7)	8	2.8	n/a
LMT	79.1	7.4	11.7	11.8	8.2	10.6	64.7	(14.5)	140	1.9	21.4

SPCX TTM to Q3 2026, growth 9M 2026. RKLB, ASTS, ECHO and VSAT TTM to June 2026; IRDM and LMT TTM to September 2026. EchoStar TTM operating loss includes large non recurring charges. AST SpaceMobile and EchoStar are left out of the chart because of growth or margin values outside the chart range.

Figure 4.1 Revenue growth versus operating margin, peer set

5 Material Events & Contracts

Nine Forms 8-K since listing. IPO closing, Cursor merger agreement and closing, a director election, the $25bn notes offering and two earnings releases.
IPO closed 15 Jun 2026: 638,888,888 Class A shares at $135.00 including the full option; gross proceeds about $86.25bn, net $85.7bn.
Cursor (Anysphere) closed 14 Aug 2026 for 389.3m Class A shares plus assumed awards; implied equity value $60.0bn. The S-8 of 22 Oct 2026 registers 71.1m shares for assumed Cursor options and RSUs.
Spectrum: agreement of 8 Oct 2026 to buy 800 MHz licenses (up to 14 MHz paired, price not disclosed), closing expected in H1 2027; EchoStar transaction expected to close on 30 Nov 2027.

Table 5.1 Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months

Date	Items	Event
15 Jun 2026	3.02, 3.03, 5.02, 5.03, 7.01, 8.01, 9.01	IPO closed: 638,888,888 Class A shares at $135.00 including full option; restated charter and bylaws; amended 2024 Equity Incentive Plan (300.9m shares available) and ESPP (24.0m shares).
16 Jun 2026	1.01, 3.02, 9.01	Merger agreement with Anysphere (Cursor), implied equity value $60.0bn, paid in Class A stock at 7 day VWAP.
17 Jun 2026	5.02	Roelof Botha elected independent director and audit committee member.
22 Jun 2026	7.01, 8.01, 9.01	Launch of senior unsecured notes offering.
23 Jun 2026	8.01, 9.01	Priced $25.0bn notes: $7.0bn 5.350% 2031, $6.0bn 5.650% 2033, $6.0bn 5.875% 2036, $2.5bn 6.600% 2046, $3.5bn 6.650% 2056; proceeds repay $20bn bridge loan.
26 Jun 2026	8.01, 9.01	Notes issued under indenture with BNY Mellon Trust; weighted coupon 5.855%, weighted maturity 11.7 years.
4 Aug 2026	2.02, 9.01	Q2 2026 results: revenue $7.8bn (+92%), net loss $541m, adjusted EBITDA $3.5bn.
14 Aug 2026	2.01, 3.02, 9.01	Cursor merger closed: 389.3m Class A shares to Cursor holders plus 1.8m for vested RSUs; assumed about 29.1m RSUs and 44.4m options; purchase consideration $42.5bn; goodwill $36.6bn.
20 Oct 2026	2.02, 9.01	Q3 2026 results: revenue $14.6bn (+161%), net income $4.4bn, adjusted EBITDA $8.8bn; 800 MHz spectrum agreement of 8 Oct 2026.

Table 5.2 Material contracts and financing arrangements

Contract	Terms
Senior notes, June 2026	$25.0bn in five tranches maturing 2031 to 2056 at 5.350% to 6.650%; interest on 15 Jan and 15 Jul from 15 Jan 2027.
EchoStar spectrum purchase	$19.6bn: $11.1bn in SPCX stock at $42.40 per EchoStar share basis (261.8m shares) and up to $8.5bn EchoStar debt payoff; interest support payments $1.2bn in 2026 and $0.8bn in 2027.
Cloud services agreements	$14.1bn contracted in Q2 2026 plus a $6.7bn six month contract in Q3 2026; contracts are terminable on 90 days notice.
Valor sale leaseback (related party)	AI hardware financing accounted as debt; $12.9bn at 30 Sep 2026.
Revolving credit	$5.0bn SpaceX revolver to 19 May 2031 and $250m xAI revolver, both undrawn.

6 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

No annual meeting has been held since listing; there is no DEF 14A and no Form 8-K Item 5.07 vote result on the record.
Dual class: Class A one vote, Class B ten votes. Class B holders elect a majority of the board; Elon Musk held about 82% of voting power after the IPO. SPCX is a controlled company under Nasdaq rules.
Shares outstanding 13.6bn at 30 Sep 2026 (Class A 8.2bn, Class B 5.3bn); IPO float 638.9m shares, 4.7% of shares outstanding.
Lockups: staged releases of the 180 day lockup run to 8 Dec 2026; an extended lockup covers 7.8bn shares until Q2 2027 results; Elon Musk is locked up for 366 days to 12 Jun 2027.
Insiders since listing: no open market purchases; one sale series. Gwynne Shotwell sold 342,170 shares on 22 Sep 2026 at $151.15 to $154.72 (about $52.5m) under a 10b5-1 plan; Valor funds distributed 42.8m shares in kind on 11 Sep 2026.
Institutional 13F data: first full public quarter ended 30 Sep 2026; Q3 2026 Forms 13F are due by 14 Nov 2026.

Annual meeting remarks

No annual meeting has been held since the 12 Jun 2026 listing; the prospectus carries no founder letter.

Table 6.1 Holders above 5% and voting control

Holder	Shares (bn)	Stake	Filing
Elon Musk (trusts and direct)	6.42	48.4% of Class A as converted; about 82% of votes	Schedule 13G, 13 Aug 2026
Alphabet (Google LLC)	0.55	7.2%	Schedule 13G, 14 Aug 2026
Antonio Gracias, Valor entities (director)	0.50	6.5%; 0.46bn after 42.8m share distribution on 11 Sep 2026	Schedule 13G, 11 Aug 2026; Form 4
Peter Thiel, Founders Fund entities	0.43	5.5%	Schedule 13G, 14 Aug 2026

7 Risk Factors

Q3 2026 Form 10-Q reports no material change in risk factors against the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and the prospectus. The table lists the risks the filings place first.

Table 7.1 Risk factors disclosed in the Form 424B4 and Forms 10-Q

Risk	Disclosure and change
Starship development and cadence	V3 Starlink, V2 Mobile and orbital compute satellites require Starship; Falcon cannot launch them. Several Starship tests, including Flight 12, led to FAA mishap determinations.
Controlling shareholder	Elon Musk holds about 82% of votes; any Tesla combination needs special committee, board and controlling shareholder approval. Key person dependence.
Customer concentration	Customer B 34.5% of Q3 2026 revenue; Customer A 16.6%. Cloud services agreements are terminable on 90 days notice.
Compute supply and power	SI growth depends on GPU supply, power and data center construction; capex guidance $35bn to $40bn for Q4 2026.
Funding and leverage	Debt principal $38.0bn plus related party sale leaseback debt; non cancelable commitments $37.8bn at 30 Sep 2026.
Content and platform regulation	X and Grok face EU Digital Services Act enforcement, GDPR class actions and image generation suits; litigation reserve $350m.
Government contracts and politics	Revenue from US government customers and launch licensing exposes results to policy and changes in control of Congress.
Share supply and dilution	Lockup releases through Q2 2027; 261.8m shares due to EchoStar; 1.3bn restricted Class B shares in performance awards to Elon Musk.

8 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

SPCX closed at $147.49 on 23 Oct 2026, 9.3% above the $135.00 IPO price; first day close $160.95; range since listing $104.83 (3 Aug 2026) to $225.64 (16 Jun 2026), intraday.
Market value $2.0tn on 13.6bn shares; enterprise value $1.95tn after net cash of $51.0bn; 60.9x TTM revenue and about 34x Q3 2026 annualized revenue.
Scenario model: revenue grows from TTM Q3 2026 $32.0bn for three years; FY2029 net income uses an 18% tax rate; share count rises with Cursor awards, EchoStar shares and performance awards; price equals FY2029 EPS times exit P/E.

Figure 8.1 SPCX monthly closing price since listing on 12 June 2026

Critical factors and core assumptions

Table 8.1 Critical factors behind the best case

Factor	Current value	Best case requires	Evidence in filings and calls
AI compute capacity	1.7 GW at 30 Sep 2026	about 13 GW end 2027 and above 20 GW later, with power and GPUs secured	Q3 2026 call: 2.5 to 3 GW end 2026, about 13 GW end 2027
Cloud contract renewal and pricing	SI infrastructure revenue $7.0bn in Q3 2026; priced above $50 per watt; backlog $63.0bn	renewals at or above current pricing; Customer B share falls below 20%	10-Q Q3 2026, Note 3 and MD&A
Starship reuse and cadence	3 Starship launches in 9M 2026; Flight 14 delivered 26 V3 satellites	catch on Flight 15; weekly flights in H1 2027, twice weekly in H2 2027	8-K 20 Oct 2026, Ex 99.1; Q3 2026 call
Starlink subscribers and ARPU	13.6m subscribers; ARPU $69; Connectivity margin 45.1%	net adds above 1.6m per quarter with stable ARPU; Starlink Mobile on EchoStar spectrum	10-Q Q3 2026 key metrics
Capex funding	capex $19.6bn in Q3 2026; net cash $51.0bn	operating cash flow covers capex by 2028 without new equity	10-Q Q3 2026 liquidity; Q3 2026 call
Governance and Tesla	special committees at SpaceX and Tesla; no terms	any combination on terms accretive to SPCX holders, or no deal	10-Q Q3 2026 MD&A

Revenue base TTM Q3 2026 $32.0bn; Q1 2027 guidance of $33bn to $37bn equals $132bn to $148bn annualized.
Best case: 130% revenue CAGR to $390bn in FY2029, 35% operating margin, 40x P/E, 12% more shares as performance awards vest.
Base case: 100% revenue CAGR to $256bn, 25% operating margin (Q3 2026: 19.1%), 30x P/E, 4% more shares.
Worst case: 40% revenue CAGR to $88bn as cloud contracts end at term, 15% operating margin, 30x P/E, 2% more shares.
Tax rate 18%; interest income and other income set to zero; depreciation rises with capex and is inside the operating margin.

Scenarios, three years forward

Table 8.2 Scenario analysis, TTM Q3 2026 to FY2029

Measure	Worst case	Base case	Best case
Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%)	40.0	100.0	130.0
Revenue, FY2029 ($bn)	87.9	256.3	389.9
Operating margin, FY2029 (%)	15.0	25.0	35.0
Net income, FY2029 ($bn)	10.8	52.6	111.9
EPS, FY2029 ($)	0.78	3.72	7.36
Exit P/E (x)	30.0	30.0	40.0
Implied price ($)	23	112	294
Change against $147.49 (%)	(84)	(24)	100
Implied annual return (%)	(45.8)	(8.9)	25.9

FY2029 means the four quarters to Q3 2029. Implied annual return excludes dividends; SPCX pays none.

Sensitivity analysis

Table 8.3 Sensitivity of implied price to revenue CAGR and operating margin at 30x P/E

Revenue CAGR \ Operating margin	10%	15%	20%	25%	30%	35%
40%	$15	$23	$31	$38	$46	$54
70%	$27	$41	$55	$69	$82	$96
100%	$45	$67	$89	$112	$134	$156
130%	$68	$102	$136	$170	$204	$238
160%	$98	$147	$196	$245	$294	$343

Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $147.49. Blue cells sit above the current price, red cells below.

Table 8.4 Sensitivity of implied price to exit P/E and operating margin at 100% revenue CAGR

Exit P/E \ Operating margin	10%	15%	20%	25%	30%	35%
20x	$30	$45	$60	$74	$89	$104
25x	$37	$56	$74	$93	$112	$130
30x	$45	$67	$89	$112	$134	$156
35x	$52	$78	$104	$130	$156	$182
40x	$60	$89	$119	$149	$179	$208
50x	$74	$112	$149	$186	$223	$260

Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $147.49. Blue cells sit above the current price, red cells below.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 23 October 2026.

Sources

All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Call statements are taken from the Q3 2026 and Q2 2026 earnings calls held by the company.

Table A.1 Filings used, with accession numbers

Form	Period	Filed	Accession number
424B4	FY2023 to FY2025, Q1 2026	12 Jun 2026	0001628280-26-042639
S-1	FY2025	20 May 2026	0001628280-26-036936
10-Q	Q2 2026	4 Aug 2026	0001628280-26-052535
10-Q	Q3 2026	22 Oct 2026	0001628280-26-066880
8-K Ex 99.1	Q2 2026	4 Aug 2026	0001628280-26-052515
8-K Ex 99.1	Q3 2026	20 Oct 2026	0001628280-26-066482
8-K	Cursor closing	14 Aug 2026	0001628280-26-056945
S-8	Cursor plans	22 Oct 2026	0001628280-26-066903
Schedule 13G	30 Jun 2026	13 Aug 2026	0001104659-26-095936
Schedule 13G	30 Jun 2026	14 Aug 2026	0001193125-26-352289
Schedule 13G	30 Jun 2026	14 Aug 2026	0001426012-26-000004
Schedule 13G	30 Jun 2026	11 Aug 2026	0001213900-26-087780

Table B.1 Exhibits to Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months

Filed	Exhibit	Document	Content
15 Jun 2026	EX-1.1	IPO underwriting agreement dated 11 Jun 2026	555,555,555 firm Class A shares plus an option for 83,333,333 additional shares; public offering price $135.00 per share; Underwriters bought at $134.10 per share, a discount of $0.90 per share (about 0.67%)
15 Jun 2026	EX-3.1	Restated Certificate of Formation (Texas)	Company converted from a Delaware corporation (incorporated 14 Mar 2002) into a Texas corporation; Authorized 53.86bn shares: 36.13bn Class A, 5.325bn Class B, 10bn Class C and 2.4bn preferred, par $0.001
15 Jun 2026	EX-3.2	Amended and Restated Bylaws	Elects TBOC Section 21.419: shareholders need 3% of outstanding shares to bring a derivative proceeding; Elects TBOC Section 21.373 on shareholder proposals once the company is a nationally listed corporation
16 Jun 2026	EX-10.1	Agreement and Plan of Merger with Anysphere (Cursor), dated 16 Jun 2026	Parties: SpaceX, merger subsidiary X67 Inc. and Anysphere, Inc.; follows a Call Option Agreement and a Compute Agreement both dated 19 Apr 2026; Equity value of $60.0bn divided by Cursor fully diluted capitalization sets the implied per share value; exchange ratio uses SpaceX 7 trading day VWAP before closing
22 Jun 2026	EX-99.1	Press release: launch of inaugural senior unsecured notes offering	Senior unsecured notes offered under Rule 144A and Regulation S, ranking equally with other unsubordinated debt; Net proceeds to repay bridge loan borrowings in full, pay fees, and remaining amount for general corporate purposes
23 Jun 2026	EX-99.1	Press release: pricing of $25bn inaugural bond issuance	$7.0bn 5.350% notes due 2031, $6.0bn 5.650% due 2033, $6.0bn 5.875% due 2036, $2.5bn 6.600% due 2046 and $3.5bn 6.650% due 2056; Total principal $25.0bn; settlement expected 26 Jun 2026
26 Jun 2026	EX-4.1	Indenture with The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company as trustee, dated 26 Jun 2026	Governs the five tranches of senior notes totalling $25.0bn; Make whole call before par call dates at Treasury plus 20bp (2031 and 2033), 25bp (2036 and 2046) and 30bp (2056); par call 1, 2, 3, 6 and 6 months before maturity
26 Jun 2026	EX-4.7	Registration Rights Agreement for the senior notes, dated 26 Jun 2026	Signed with BofA Securities, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley as representatives of the initial purchasers; SpaceX must complete a registered exchange offer by the 540th day after issue
4 Aug 2026	EX-99.1	Q2 2026 earnings release	Revenue $7.81bn, up 92% from $4.07bn; net loss $541m against $1.01bn; adjusted EBITDA $3.54bn, up 191%; diluted EPS $(0.09); Segments: Space revenue $962m (operating loss $542m), Connectivity $4.29bn (operating income $1.66bn), AI $2.56bn (operating loss $1.26bn, adjusted EBITDA $1.15bn)
20 Oct 2026	EX-99.1	Q3 2026 earnings release	Revenue $14.57bn, up 161% from $5.58bn; operating income $2.79bn; net income $4.40bn against a $1.05bn loss; diluted EPS $0.35; adjusted EBITDA $8.81bn, up 306%; AI segment renamed Super Intelligence (SI): revenue $7.56bn, up 830%, operating income $431m after $1.22bn of Cursor related share based compensation, adjusted EBITDA $4.95bn