November 6, 2026·46 min read

IonQ, Inc. (IONQ), Financial Analysis

Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.

Revenue Q3 2026
$173.8m
+336.0% year on year (Q3 2025 $39.9m)
Costs and expenses Q3 2026
$606.9m
+190.8% year on year (Q3 2025 $208.7m)
Operating margin Q3 2026 (loss)
(249.1%)
+174.3 pts year on year (Q3 2025 (423.5%))
Key findings
  • Revenue +336.0% to $173.8m in Q3 2026. IonQ Platform $90.3m (+126.5%): quantum hardware $52.9m, quantum services $37.4m. SkyWater Foundry Services added $83.5m in the two months after its 31 Jul 2026 closing (48% of revenue): CMOS foundry $53.8m, quantum foundry $29.8m.
  • Costs +190.8% to $606.9m; operating loss $433.1m. Operating margin (249.1%) against (423.5%) a year earlier. Stock compensation $146.9m; depreciation and amortization $127.6m, incl. $64.8m on SkyWater fixed assets stepped up to fair value. Adjusted EBITDA (company measure) loss $133.6m.
  • GAAP net income $564.0m despite the operating loss. A $896.2m gain on revaluing the Series A and B warrant liabilities and a $141.7m tax benefit added to the result; Q2 2026 showed a $1.87bn net loss from the same warrants. P/E, ROE and net margin are therefore not meaningful.
  • Backlog $1.17bn; guidance raised four times. Remaining performance obligations $1.17bn at 30 Sep 2026 against $485m at 30 Jun, about 50% due within 12 months. FY2026 revenue guidance $505m to $515m, up from $225m to $245m in February; implied Q4 2026 $186.5m to $196.5m.
  • 12 acquisitions for about $6.2bn since Dec 2024. SkyWater $1.94bn (cash $986.7m), Oxford Ionics $1.59bn and Elisity up to $1.3bn (closed 3 Nov 2026, all stock); goodwill $3.22bn at 30 Sep 2026. 2025 deals were 95% paid in stock.
  • Funding and dilution. Cash and investments $1.66bn at 30 Sep 2026, plus $1.99bn net from the October offering with 100m Series C warrants at $69.46. About 464.7m shares after Elisity against 373.2m in April; say on pay passed with 53.7%. Shares at $28.37 before the 6 Nov session; scenario prices in three years $10 to $51.

Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2022 to FY2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 2025 to Q3 2026 (the Q3 2026 10-Q filed 5 Nov 2026), the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the quarterly earnings releases (Ex 99.1) with the CFO commentary they contain (IonQ files no separate CFO commentary document), the merger agreements for SkyWater and Elisity, the October 2026 underwriting and warrant agreements, the Form 8-K Item 5.07 vote results of June 2026, the proxy statement of April 2026, Schedules 13G and Forms 3, 4 and 5 for central index key 1824920, together with the Forms 10-K, 10-Q, 20-F and 8-K of the competitors used in chapters 2 to 4 and 7. No earnings call transcript was available, so call remarks are left out. Accession numbers appear in the Sources appendix.

1 Revenue & Business Model

  • Storyline: revenue rises with acquisitions and backlog while operating losses widen and the share count grows. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three revenue drivers: computing systems and cloud access; networking and security; government, sensing and the SkyWater foundry.
  • Business: the FY2025 10-K describes IonQ as a quantum platform company in computing, networking, sensing and security, built on trapped ion technology; computing access is sold directly and through AWS Braket, Azure Quantum and Google Cloud Marketplace.
  • Reporting: one segment through Q2 2026; from Q3 2026 two segments, IonQ Platform and SkyWater Foundry Services, with four revenue types: quantum hardware, quantum services, quantum foundry and advanced technologies, and CMOS foundry. Gross profit in this report is revenue less cost of revenue excluding depreciation and amortization, as IonQ reports it; peers include depreciation in cost of revenue.
  • Revenue FY2021 $2.1m to FY2025 $130.0m (+202% in FY2025); TTM Q3 2026 $380.4m, incl. two months of SkyWater. 9M 2026 revenue $318.5m.
  • Regions: United States $87.0m (67%) of FY2025 revenue and $136.3m (78%) in Q3 2026; Switzerland, home of ID Quantique, $16.6m in FY2025; South Korea $17.8m in Q2 2026.
  • Employees: 1,132 at 31 Dec 2025 (FY2025 10-K), about 14% in the Washington DC area and 18% in the Seattle area; the Jan 2026 Skyloom release states more than 1,300, before SkyWater.
Figure 1.1 Revenue and operating margin, FY2023 to TTM Q3 2026
Figure 1.2 Revenue by customer location, share of FY revenue
Table 1.1 Revenue by type and segment, last five quarters
LineQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
Quantum hardware ($m)21.630.335.746.552.9
Quantum services ($m)18.331.629.033.637.4
IonQ Platform segment ($m)39.961.964.780.190.3
Quantum foundry and advanced technologies ($m)0.00.00.00.029.8
CMOS foundry ($m)0.00.00.00.053.8
SkyWater Foundry Services segment, external ($m)0.00.00.00.083.5
Total revenue ($m)39.961.964.780.1173.8
Revenue growth year on year (%)221.5428.5754.7286.8336.0
Remaining performance obligations ($m)1413704704851,168
Q4 2025 values equal FY2025 less 9M 2025. SkyWater from 31 Jul 2026; its segment revenue of $100.3m incl. $16.7m of sales to IonQ Platform, eliminated in consolidation.
Table 1.2 Revenue mix stated in the earnings releases
Share of revenueFY2025Q1 2026Q2 2026
Commercial customersmore than 60%about 60%about 60%
International customersmore than 30%about 35%about 50%
Customers buying more than one productn/aabout 35%about 25%
Company statements in 8-K Ex 99.1; the Q3 2026 release gives no mix figures.

2 Computing Systems and Cloud Access: Hardware Revenue Leads

  • IonQ Platform revenue $90.3m in Q3 2026, +126.5%: quantum hardware $52.9m (+145.3%) and quantum services, incl. cloud access, $37.4m (+104.5%). Hardware has been the larger type in each quarter since Q2 2025.
  • 9M 2026: quantum hardware $135.3m and quantum services $99.7m. The release puts quantum computing at about two thirds of new IonQ Platform contract dollars in Q3 2026 and guides FY2026 quantum computing revenue growth of 110%.
  • Segment loss: IonQ Platform segment operating loss $105.6m against $35.9m, with R&D of $92.6m and D&A of $53.9m in the segment.
  • Backlog: remaining performance obligations $1.17bn at 30 Sep 2026, +728% year on year and +141% on 30 Jun, incl. SkyWater contracts conformed to IonQ policy; about 50% due within 12 months.
  • Systems named in filings: first 256 qubit system sold to the University of Cambridge (Q1 2026), Superion 256 contracts with SDT ($33m) and Florida International University ($25m), and a Superion 256 for NVIDIA's research center (Q3 2026 release); Oxford Ionics, bought for $1.59bn in Sep 2025, supplies trapped ion chip technology.

How quantum computing is changing

  • Roadmaps to fault tolerance: IBM plans more than $10bn of quantum investment over five years and targets a large scale fault tolerant computer by 2029 (8-K, Jul 2026); Quantinuum targets universal fault tolerant computing by 2029 and its Sol system for H2 2027 (8-K, Nov 2026); D‑Wave targets a 100 logical qubit gate model system in 2032 (8-K, Aug 2026).
  • Government benchmarking: IonQ advanced to Stage C of the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative; Quantinuum reports it is in Stage B discussing Stage C.
  • Revenue scale: Quantinuum reported $9.1m of Q3 2026 revenue (+233%) and guides $31m to $34m for FY2026; Rigetti, D‑Wave and Quantum Computing Inc each reported less than $6m in Q2 2026; IBM, Alphabet and Microsoft file no quantum revenue figure.
Figure 2.1 Revenue by type, quarterly
Figure 2.2 Quarterly revenue against quantum computing companies
Figure 2.3 Remaining performance obligations by quarter
Table 2.1 Quantum computing companies compared ($m unless stated)
Company and linePeriodRevenueGrowth (%)Gross margin (%)Filed detail
IonQ Platform segmentQ3 202690.3126.545.2segment operating loss $105.6m
IonQ quantum hardwareQ3 202652.9145.3n/aSuperion 256 contracts SDT $33m, FIU $25m
QuantinuumQ3 20269.1233.033.3FY2026 revenue outlook $31m to $34m; cash $1.94bn
Rigetti ComputingQ2 20265.1185.342.6operating loss $28.1m; cash and investments $541.3m
D‑Wave QuantumQ2 20263.1(0.6)55.4H1 2026 bookings $35.5m; RPO $40.7m
Quantum Computing IncQ2 20265.6n/an/arevenue $0.061m a year earlier; cash and investments $1.3bn
IBMFY2025 to Q3 2026n/an/an/ano quantum revenue reported; plans more than $10bn of quantum investment over five years
Alphabet (Google Quantum AI)FY2025n/an/an/ano quantum revenue disclosed
Microsoft (Azure Quantum)FY2025 (to Jun 2025)n/an/an/ano quantum revenue disclosed; IonQ systems offered on Azure
IonQ Platform gross margin excludes depreciation (segment revenue less segment cost of revenue); peer gross margins are as reported. Rigetti, D‑Wave and Quantum Computing Inc had not filed Q3 2026 results by 6 Nov 2026. IBM, Alphabet and Microsoft periods refer to their latest annual or quarterly filings reviewed.

3 Networking and Security: Six Acquisitions Since Dec 2024

  • IonQ files no revenue by computing, networking, sensing or security; networking and security revenue sits inside quantum hardware and quantum services, so this chapter uses deal values, contracts and regional revenue.
  • Deals in networking, space and security: Qubitekk $22.1m (Dec 2024), ID Quantique $116.2m, Lightsynq $306.2m, Capella Space $424.8m (2025), Skyloom $191.9m (Jan 2026) and Elisity $1.15bn plus up to $150m earnout (Nov 2026), together about $2.36bn incl. the full earnout.
  • Elisity: Zero Trust network security; the release cites more than 100 customer deployments, revenue doubling year on year and a microsegmentation market above $10bn, and links the deal to the 22 Jun 2026 White House executive order on quantum security; financial statements and purchase price allocation are not yet filed.
  • Contracts and deployments in releases: national quantum networks in Switzerland, Slovakia, Romania and Poland; a quantum memory unit in a live fiber network with EPB in Tennessee (Q2 2026); 84 optical communication terminals on orbit (Q2 2026); Congruity360 post quantum and key distribution contract $8.2m (Q3 2026).
  • Revenue outside the US $37.5m in Q3 2026 (22% of revenue) against $41.8m (52%) in Q2 2026, when South Korea was $17.8m and Switzerland $8.8m.

How quantum networking and security are changing

  • Policy: IonQ's Elisity release links the deal to the 22 Jun 2026 White House executive order on quantum security; the Q2 2026 release cites White House quantum executive orders that set quantum as a national priority.
  • Competitors add products through deals: Quantum Computing Inc completed three acquisitions in H1 2026 and received a university order for a quantum secure communications system; Quantinuum reports 215 organisations on its Nexus platform (+20% on Q2 2026).
  • Large platforms: IBM reports no separate quantum safe or networking revenue; Honeywell deconsolidated Quantinuum in 2026 and booked a $6.63bn gain.
Figure 3.1 Acquisitions by purchase price
Figure 3.2 Revenue by customer location, quarterly
Table 3.1 Networking and security: IonQ deals and competitor measures
CompanyPeriodMeasureValueFiled detail
IonQ: Elisity (Zero Trust network security)closed 3 Nov 2026Purchase price$1.15bn plus up to $150m earnoutmore than 100 customer deployments (release)
IonQ: Oxford Ionics (trapped ion chips)closed 16 Sep 2025Purchase price$1.59bngoodwill $1.26bn
IonQ: Capella Space (satellites, space based key distribution)closed 11 Jul 2025Purchase price$424.8mcash $48.3m, stock $376.5m
IonQ: Lightsynq (quantum memory, photonic interconnects)closed 30 May 2025Purchase price$306.2mgoodwill $235.8m
IonQ: Skyloom (free space optical communications)closed 26 Jan 2026Purchase price$191.9mcontingent consideration $32.7m
IonQ: ID Quantique (quantum safe communications)closed 30 Apr 2025Purchase price$116.2m86% stake, raised to about 91%
QuantinuumQ3 2026Nexus platform organisations215adoption +20% on Q2 2026
Honeywell (Quantinuum consolidated sales)9M 2026Net sales$10mQuantinuum deconsolidated in 2026
Quantum Computing IncH1 2026Acquisitions3university order for a quantum secure communications system
IBM2026Networking or security revenuen/ano separate figure in filings
IonQ purchase prices as filed at closing share prices; competitors report no networking or security revenue line.

4 Government, Sensing and the SkyWater Foundry: 48% of Q3 Revenue

  • SkyWater Foundry Services revenue $83.5m from 31 Jul to 30 Sep 2026, 48.0% of Q3 2026 revenue: CMOS foundry $53.8m and quantum foundry and advanced technologies $29.8m; a further $16.7m of chip sales to IonQ Platform was eliminated.
  • SkyWater segment operating loss $49.9m, 49.8% of segment revenue incl. intersegment sales, after D&A of $73.8m, incl. $64.8m on fixed assets stepped up to fair value.
  • Purchase price $1.94bn: cash $986.7m, stock $878.8m (24,115,827 shares), equity awards $41.0m; acquired property and equipment $743.1m, intangibles $423.2m and goodwill $1.03bn; SkyWater holds Trusted Foundry accreditation (DMEA Category 1A) for sites in Minnesota, Florida and Texas.
  • Government and sensing: US revenue $136.3m (78% of Q3 2026); DARPA QBI Stage C (potential value up to $300m); Space Development Agency HALO contract $39m (Q1 2026); DARPA optical clock contract $28m for 25 units with a $30m option for 100 more, from the Vector Atomic business bought for $181.5m in Oct 2025.

How US quantum manufacturing and funding are changing

  • CHIPS funding for quantum: D‑Wave, Rigetti and Quantinuum each finalised $100m CHIPS R&D agreements with the Commerce Department in Sep 2026, which takes equity stakes; IBM signed a letter of intent for Anderon, a quantum wafer foundry with $1bn of CHIPS incentives and $1bn of IBM cash (8-K filings).
  • SkyWater: preliminary CHIPS terms of up to $16m plus $19m of Minnesota incentives; the Q2 2026 10-Q cites over $2bn of May 2026 CHIPS letters of intent to nine companies as a source of foundry competition.
  • Foundry customers: in Q3 2026 SkyWater signed a multi year foundry deal with D‑Wave and added Qolab, and launched its SC250 and SP90 quantum manufacturing platforms (IonQ release); Quantum Computing Inc runs two fabs after buying NHanced Semiconductors.
  • Department of Energy: Quantinuum took part in four winning proposals in Phase 1 of the Genesis Mission (8-K, Nov 2026).
Figure 4.1 Q3 2026 revenue by segment and type
Figure 4.2 Segment operating income by segment
Figure 4.3 US government funding and contract values
Table 4.1 Foundry and government funding compared ($m unless stated)
CompanyPeriodMeasureValueFiled detail
IonQ SkyWater Foundry ServicesQ3 2026 (two months)Segment revenue100.3external $83.5m; segment loss $49.9m ((49.8)%)
Tower SemiconductorFY2025Revenue1.57bnoperating margin 12.4% (20-F)
IonQ (DARPA QBI)Nov 2026Program value, potential300only trapped ion company in Stage C (release)
IBM (Anderon foundry)Jul 2026CHIPS incentives, letter of intent1.00bnplus $1bn IBM cash
QuantinuumSep 2026CHIPS R&D agreement100only trapped ion company selected
Rigetti ComputingSep 2026CHIPS R&D agreement100Commerce equity stake over three years
D‑Wave QuantumSep 2026CHIPS R&D agreement100Commerce takes a minority stake
Quantum Computing IncQ2 2026Fabs in operation2Fab 2 after the NHanced Semiconductors deal
SkyWater segment revenue includes $16.7m of sales to IonQ Platform. Tower Semiconductor is a listed specialty foundry; the 10-Q names Tower among SkyWater competitors.

5 Financial Analysis & Ratios

  • Operating margin (716%) in FY2023, (487%) in FY2025 and (334%) TTM. Operating loss TTM $1.27bn on revenue of $380.4m; gross margin excluding depreciation 24.1% TTM and 21.9% in Q3 2026, against 46.7% a year earlier.
  • Net income TTM $255.2m against an operating loss of $1.27bn, from warrant gains of $1.25bn and tax benefits of $179.0m. Warrant marks by quarter: Q4 2025 +$949.6m, Q1 2026 +$1.06bn, Q2 2026 ($1.65bn), Q3 2026 +$896.2m.
  • Free cash flow TTM ($688.5m) (operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment); 9M 2026 operating cash flow ($570.3m). Adjusted EBITDA (company measure) TTM loss $418.1m.
  • Balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026: cash and investments $1.66bn after $1.06bn of cash paid at the SkyWater closing; first debt, $65.6m assumed with SkyWater; warrant liabilities $2.12bn; goodwill $3.22bn and intangibles $1.15bn; total equity $5.02bn.
  • Capital returns: no dividends and no buybacks in any year shown (cash flow statements).
Table 5.1 Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet summary ($bn unless stated)
Line itemFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025TTM Q3 2026 (Q4 2025 to Q3 2026)
Revenue0.00.00.00.00.10.4
Gross profit0.00.00.00.00.10.1
Research and development0.00.00.10.10.30.5
Selling, general and administrative0.00.00.10.10.30.6
Operating income0.0(0.1)(0.2)(0.2)(0.6)(1.3)
Net income(0.1)0.0(0.2)(0.3)(0.5)0.3
Diluted EPS ($)(0.77)(0.25)(0.78)(1.56)(1.82)0.27
Operating cash flow0.00.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.3)(0.6)
Capital expenditure0.00.00.00.00.00.0
Free cash flow0.0(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.3)(0.7)
Stock based compensation0.00.00.10.10.30.5
Cash and investments0.60.50.50.43.31.7
Total debt0.00.00.00.00.00.1
Total equity0.60.60.50.43.85.0
Gross profit is revenue less cost of revenue excluding depreciation and amortization. Capital expenditure is purchases of property and equipment. Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capex. TTM equals Q4 2025 plus Q1 to Q3 2026; TTM balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026. Net income is attributable to IonQ and includes warrant fair value changes.
Figure 5.1 Quarterly revenue and margins
Table 5.2 What changed, Q3 2026 against Q3 2025
MetricQ3 2025Q3 2026Change
Revenue ($bn)0.040.17336.0%
Gross profit ($bn)0.020.04104.3%
Operating income ($bn)(0.17)(0.43)(156.5%)
Net income ($bn)(1.05)0.56n/a
Diluted EPS ($)(3.58)1.35n/a
Operating cash flow ($bn)(0.12)(0.32)(156.4%)
Free cash flow ($bn)(0.13)(0.33)(160.9%)
Operating margin (%)(423.5)(249.1)174.3 pts
Net margin (%)(2,646.3)324.42,970.7 pts
Table 5.3 Ratio analysis
RatioFY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025TTM Q3 2026 (Q4 2025 to Q3 2026)
Growth and margins
Revenue growth (%)n/a430.398.095.4201.9n/a
Gross margin (%)50.573.663.252.240.424.1
Operating margin (%)(1,843.1)(770.3)(715.7)(539.7)(487.4)(333.9)
FCF margin (%)(1,635.1)(485.4)(419.7)(287.1)(230.4)(181.0)
Cost and investment intensity
R&D (%) revenue963.7395.1418.8317.7235.1137.8
SBC (%) revenue369.1282.6316.4248.1240.0137.7
Capex (%) revenue370.883.962.241.812.611.5
Returns
Asset turnover (x)0.000.020.040.080.020.05
Liquidity and leverage
Current ratio (x)54.6518.4310.4910.5015.504.24
Net cash ($bn)0.60.50.50.43.31.6
Efficiency and cash quality
Days sales outstanding12310819086187158
Net margin, ROE, ROA and the tax rate are left out: net income swings with warrant fair value changes and tax benefits from acquired deferred tax liabilities, so these ratios are not meaningful.
Figure 5.2 Margin profile
Figure 5.3 Operating cash flow, capital expenditure and free cash flow
Table 5.4 Valuation snapshot at $28.37 per share, pre market price of 6 Nov 2026
MeasureValue
Market cap ($bn)13.2
Enterprise value ($bn)11.6
EV/Sales (TTM) (x)30.4
FCF yield (%)(5.2)
Price/Book (x)2.6

Cost structure and profitability

  • Costs (revenue less operating income) $606.9m in Q3 2026, +190.8%, against revenue +336.0%; costs equal 349% of revenue against 523% a year earlier.
  • Cost of revenue excluding D&A $135.8m, 78.1% of revenue against 53.3%; SkyWater segment cost of revenue was $72.1m on $100.3m of segment revenue.
  • R&D $141.7m (+114%), G&A $153.3m (+86%) and sales and marketing $48.5m (+236%); G&A includes $39.3m of transaction costs in Q3 2026 ($61.5m in 9M 2026).
  • Stock based compensation $146.9m in Q3 2026 (+101%) and $417.3m in 9M 2026, 85% of quarterly revenue; 240% of FY2025 revenue.
  • Depreciation and amortization $127.6m against $24.2m: $64.8m on SkyWater fixed assets recorded at fair value, $26.7m on intangibles and $10.6m on satellites.
  • Operating cash flow ($315.5m) and capex $16.3m in Q3 2026; free cash flow ($331.9m) against ($127.2m) a year earlier.
Figure 5.4 Operating costs by line against revenue
Figure 5.5 Operating loss, warrant revaluation and net income
Figure 5.6 Cash and investments by period
Table 5.5 Operating costs by line, last five quarters
LineQ3 2025Q4 2025Q1 2026Q2 2026Q3 2026
Cost of revenue, excl. D&A ($m)21.343.649.360.1135.8
Research and development ($m)66.396.1125.7160.6141.7
Sales and marketing ($m)14.419.529.432.948.5
General and administrative ($m)82.590.788.6117.6153.3
Depreciation and amortization ($m)24.240.643.146.1127.6
Costs, revenue less operating income ($m)208.7290.5336.2417.3606.9
Costs as % of revenue523469520521349
Stock based compensation, in lines above ($m)72.9106.7128.5141.8146.9
Table 5.6 Operating income to net income ($m)
LineQ3 2025Q3 20269M 2026
Operating income (loss)(168.8)(433.1)(1,041.8)
Change in fair value of warrant liabilities(881.8)896.2304.7
Interest income and other income (expense), net(9.4)(41.7)82.1
Income tax benefit (expense)4.4141.7154.2
Net income (loss) incl. noncontrolling interests(1,055.6)563.1(500.9)
Net income (loss) attributable to IonQ(1,055.0)564.0(498.4)
Interest income and other income include unrealized gains and losses on strategic investments. Tax benefits come from deferred tax liabilities acquired with SkyWater and valuation allowance effects.

FY2026 guidance raised four times

  • Revenue guidance midpoint $235m in February, $265m in May, $285m in August (excluding SkyWater), $455m in September (including SkyWater) and $510m in November, +117% from the start and +292% on FY2025.
  • Implied Q4 2026 revenue $186.5m to $196.5m, +7% to +13% on Q3 2026, with a full quarter of SkyWater.
  • Adjusted EBITDA guidance (loss of $310m to $330m) was set in February and reaffirmed in May; 9M 2026 adjusted EBITDA loss was $350.6m.
Figure 5.7 FY2026 revenue guidance by release date

6 MD&A & Management Commentary

Q3 2026 results release

  • Q3 2026 (8-K Ex 99.1 of 5 Nov 2026): revenue $173.8m, +336.0% and +117.2% on Q2 2026; net income attributable to IonQ $564.0m; diluted EPS $1.35 (basic $1.42 in the release); adjusted EBITDA loss $133.6m and adjusted EPS ($0.29), company measures.
  • Adjusted EBITDA excludes stock compensation, depreciation and amortization, fair value changes, acquisition costs ($42.7m in Q3 2026), severance and certain legal costs; it includes $23.7m of R&D paid to SkyWater before the closing (9M 2026 $60.2m).
  • Orders named in the release: quantum computing was about two thirds of new IonQ Platform contract dollars; Superion 256 contracts with SDT ($33m) and Florida International University ($25m); NVIDIA to deploy a Superion 256 at its research center; DARPA optical clock contract $28m; Congruity360 security contract $8.2m.
  • FY2026 revenue guidance $505m to $515m, the fourth raise, with quantum computing revenue growth of 110%; the release gives no 2027 guidance.
  • Q2 2026 (5 Aug 2026): revenue $80.1m, +287%, 20% above the guidance midpoint; net loss $1.87bn incl. a $1.65bn warrant loss; FY2026 guidance $280m to $290m excluding SkyWater, with 100% organic growth expected.
Table 6.1 FY2026 guidance and its four revisions
ItemOutlookSource
FY2026 revenue$505m to $515m incl. SkyWater (5 Nov 2026); $450m to $460m incl. SkyWater (8 Sep 2026); $280m to $290m excl. SkyWater (5 Aug 2026); $260m to $270m (6 May 2026); $225m to $245m (25 Feb 2026)8-K Ex 99.1, 25 Feb, 6 May, 5 Aug, 8 Sep and 5 Nov 2026
FY2026 quantum computing revenue growth110% year on year8-K Ex 99.1, 5 Nov 2026
Q4 2026 revenue, implied$186.5m to $196.5m (FY2026 range less 9M 2026 revenue of $318.5m)derived from 8-K Ex 99.1 and 10-Q
FY2026 adjusted EBITDAloss of $310m to $330m (25 Feb 2026), reaffirmed 6 May 2026; not restated after SkyWater8-K Ex 99.1, 25 Feb and 6 May 2026
Q2 2026 revenue$65m to $68m (6 May 2026); actual $80.1m8-K Ex 99.1, 6 May and 5 Aug 2026
Q1 2026 revenue$48m to $51m (25 Feb 2026); actual $64.7m8-K Ex 99.1, 25 Feb and 6 May 2026

Management and CFO commentary

  • Q3 2026 release (5 Nov 2026), CFO Inder Singh: revenue +336% from Tempo deployments, sensing and space deliveries and SkyWater; RPO more than doubled to $1.2bn; pro forma cash $3.7bn after the October offering.
  • Q3 2026 release, CEO Niccolo de Masi: DARPA QBI Stage C with potential value up to $300m; NVIDIA to deploy a Superion 256; SkyWater added Qolab as a customer and extended its D‑Wave collaboration.
  • Investor day outlook (8 Sep 2026): first combined IonQ and SkyWater guidance, FY2026 revenue $450m to $460m net of intercompany revenue.
  • Q2 2026 release (5 Aug 2026): revenue +287% on Tempo deployments and cloud use; about 50% international, 60% commercial and 25% multi product revenue; SkyWater and Nexus deals closed.
  • Q1 2026 release (6 May 2026): first 256 qubit system sold and first ion trap chip samples returned from the fab; solutions sold in more than 30 countries; organic growth of more than 100% expected for FY2026.
  • Q4 2025 release (25 Feb 2026): FY2025 revenue 20% above guidance; more than 60% commercial and more than 30% international; organic growth near 80%.
Table 6.2 Management statements in their own words
SpeakerDate and sourceStatement
Niccolo de Masi, Chairman and CEO25 Feb 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“first public quantum company in history with more than $100 million in GAAP revenue”
Inder Singh, CFO and COO8 Sep 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“Releasing our first combined guidance as a unified organization is a pivotal step”
Inder Singh, CFO and COO5 Nov 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1“Our Remaining Performance Obligations more than doubled to $1.2 billion”
Table 6.3 Key disclosures in the Forms 10-Q and 10-K
ItemDisclosure
10-Q Q3 2026, costsCost of revenue $135.8m (+539%); R&D $141.7m (+114%); sales and marketing $48.5m (+236%); G&A $153.3m (+86%, incl. $26.4m higher acquisition costs); D&A $127.6m (+428%: $64.8m SkyWater fixed assets, $26.7m intangibles, $10.6m satellites).
10-Q Q3 2026, segmentsIonQ Platform segment loss $105.6m against $35.9m; SkyWater segment loss $49.9m on segment revenue of $100.3m incl. $16.7m intersegment sales.
10-Q Q3 2026, other expenseOther expense $59.2m, mainly a $65.7m unrealized loss on listed strategic investments; strategic investments $249.7m; investees bought $7.0m of IonQ products in Q3 2026 and $15.7m in 9M 2026.
10-Q Q3 2026, liquidityCash and investments $1.66bn, down $1.30bn from 30 Jun 2026 after $1.06bn cash at the SkyWater closing and operating outflows; management states funds are sufficient for 12 months.
10-Q Q3 2026, warrants36,042,530 Series A ($99.88, to Jul 2032) and 43,010,800 Series B ($155.00, to Oct 2032) private warrants outstanding, liability classified; public warrants expired Sep 2026.
10-Q Q3 2026, commitmentsContingent obligation to buy $114.8m of computing access if customers exercise rights; the Florida Center for NeoVation lease requires full plant capacity within five years.
10-Q Q3 2026, macroCites the Sep 2026 Fed rate increase, Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption, and Section 232 semiconductor tariffs as risks to the foundry business.
10-K FY2025, taxesIncome tax benefit $44.6m, mainly valuation allowance release tied to acquired deferred tax liabilities; federal, state and foreign NOLs of $653.8m, $454.7m and $140.6m.
10-K FY2025, controlsInternal control effective at 31 Dec 2025; IDQ, Capella, Oxford Ionics and Vector Atomic excluded from the assessment (39% of FY2025 revenue).

7 Peer Valuation & Sector Summary

  • Sector: quantum computing, networking and sensing, plus specialty semiconductor foundry. Listed peers in the table: Rigetti, D‑Wave and Quantum Computing Inc at Q2 2026, and Tower Semiconductor as the foundry benchmark; driver chapters add Quantinuum, IBM, Alphabet and Microsoft.
  • Scale: IonQ TTM revenue to Q3 2026 $380.4m against TTM to Q2 2026 revenue of Rigetti $13.4m, D‑Wave $12.4m and Quantum Computing Inc $9.8m; Tower $1.57bn in FY2025.
  • Operating margin TTM: IonQ (333.9%, to Q3 2026); to Q2 2026 Rigetti (727.6%), Quantum Computing Inc (775.5%), D‑Wave (1,372.9%); Tower 12.4% in FY2025.
  • Valuation: EV/Sales on the same periods: IonQ 30.4x, Rigetti 211.2x, D‑Wave 234.4x and Tower 9.2x; Quantum Computing Inc has net cash above its market value. Net cash: IonQ $1.60bn before the October raise, Quantum Computing Inc $1.32bn.
Table 7.1 Peer comparison, latest reported trailing twelve months
CompanyRevenue TTM ($bn)Revenue growth (%)Gross margin (%)Operating margin (%)Net margin (%)FCF margin (%)ROE (%)Net cash ($bn)Market value ($bn)EV/Sales (x)P/E TTM (x)
IONQ0.4336.024.1(333.9)n/a(181.0)n/a1.61330.4n/a
RGTI0.0185.334.6(727.6)(1,787.4)(655.9)(44.4)0.53211.2n/a
QBTS0.0(0.6)64.2(1,372.9)(2,001.6)(958.4)(23.0)0.53234.4n/a
QUBT0.09,000.0(18.9)(775.5)(152.5)(524.0)(0.9)1.31(2.7)n/a
TSEM1.69.123.212.414.1(3.1)7.61.0159.269.9
IONQ TTM to Q3 2026; RGTI, QBTS and QUBT TTM to Q2 2026 (no Q3 2026 10-Q filed by 6 Nov 2026); TSEM FY2025 (20-F) as a foundry benchmark for SkyWater. Growth is the latest quarter year on year; QUBT growth reflects an acquisition on a revenue base of $0.061m and is left out of the chart. IONQ gross margin excludes depreciation; peers report gross profit after it. IONQ net margin, ROE and P/E are not meaningful (net income includes $1.25bn of warrant gains) and are shown as n/a. IONQ net cash excludes the $1.99bn October 2026 offering. Prices are pre market of 6 Nov 2026; TSEM at 31 Dec 2025.
Figure 7.1 Revenue growth versus operating margin, peer set

8 Material Events & Contracts

  • 21 Forms 8-K and 8-K/A from 10 Nov 2025 to 5 Nov 2026: four earnings releases, the September guidance update, SkyWater and Elisity merger filings, the October offering, five resale registrations for shares issued in deals and collaborations, management and board changes and the annual meeting results.
  • Labelling in the 5 Nov 2026 8-K: the Item 2.02 text names the quarter ended 30 Sep 2026 as Q2; the attached release labels it Q3.
  • Material contracts: the SkyWater merger agreement ($15.00 cash plus $20.00 in IonQ stock per share), the Elisity merger agreement ($1.15bn in stock plus up to $150m earnout) and the October 2026 warrant agreements carry the largest economic terms.
Table 8.1 Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
DateItemsEvent
10 Nov 20258.01, 9.01Resale prospectus supplement for 2,108,993 shares held by The University of Chicago under a registration rights agreement dated 7 Nov 2025.
21 Nov 20255.02, 8.01, 9.01Chief Revenue Officer Rima Alameddine departs effective 24 Nov 2025 with severance and accelerated vesting; Scott Millard appointed Chief Business Officer.
5 Dec 20255.02 (8-K/A)Amendment on departure of Thomas Kramer effective 2 Dec 2025: unvested RSUs and certain options vest in full, PSUs vest at target prorated.
26 Jan 20261.01, 2.02, 7.01, 9.01Merger agreement to acquire SkyWater Technology for $15.00 cash plus $20.00 of IonQ stock per share (exchange ratio collar 0.3326 to 0.5265); $51.6m termination fee payable by SkyWater; antitrust fallback of $100m purchase of 2,857,143 SkyWater shares; voting agreement with holders of 19.87%.
30 Jan 20263.02, 7.01, 9.01Closed Skyloom (26 Jan, up to 3,909,267 shares) and Seed Innovations (30 Jan, up to 1,171,868 shares) acquisitions; unregistered shares to The University of Chicago.
25 Feb 20262.02, 9.01Q4 2025 revenue $61.9m (+429%), FY2025 $130.0m (+202%); Q4 net income $753.7m; FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA -$186.8m; FY2026 guidance revenue $225m to $245m, Adjusted EBITDA -$330m to -$310m.
27 Feb 20268.01Resale prospectus supplement covering 5,127,459 shares for selling stockholders.
10 Mar 20263.02Resale prospectus for 2,562,642 shares issued to the University of Cambridge under a registration rights agreement dated 10 Mar 2026.
25 Mar 20265.02, 9.01William F. Scannell appointed Class II director effective 20 Mar 2026, Compensation Committee member.
24 Apr 20268.01FTC issued a second request on the SkyWater merger; closing still expected in Q2 or Q3 2026.
6 May 20262.02, 9.01Q1 2026 revenue $64.7m (+755%); RPO $470m (+554%); net income $805.4m; Adjusted EBITDA -$96.8m; FY2026 guidance raised to $260m to $270m.
18 Jun 20265.07Annual meeting 16 Jun 2026: two directors elected, EY ratified, say on pay approved with 45.9m for and 39.5m against.
28 Jul 20268.01, 9.01Final regulatory approval received for SkyWater merger.
31 Jul 20268.01, 9.01SkyWater merger completed 31 Jul 2026 (total consideration $1.944bn per 10-Q).
5 Aug 20262.02, 9.01Q2 2026 revenue $80.1m (+287%); net loss $1.868bn; Adjusted EBITDA -$120.3m; RPO $485m; FY2026 guidance $280m to $290m excluding SkyWater.
7 Aug 20263.02, 9.01Resale prospectus covering 1,958,951 shares for selling stockholders.
28 Aug 20265.02, 8.01, 9.01Board expanded by two seats; Eric R. Ball and Timothy E. Baxter appointed directors effective 24 Aug 2026.
8 Sep 20267.01, 9.01FY2026 revenue guidance $450m to $460m including SkyWater from 31 Jul, net of intercompany eliminations; Investor Day.
13 Oct 20261.01, 3.02, 7.01, 9.01Agreement (9 Oct) to acquire Elisity for $1.15bn in IonQ shares (price collar $33.07 to $49.61) plus up to $150m earnout; $100m RSU retention pool.
16 Oct 20268.01, 9.01Offering closed 16 Oct: 20.5m shares and 29.5m prefunded warrants, each with two Series C warrants (100m, strike $69.46, 7 years) at $40.00 combined; about $1.99bn net proceeds.
5 Nov 20262.01, 2.02, 3.02, 7.01, 9.01Elisity closed 3 Nov 2026 for 32,233,274 shares plus up to 4,265,934 earnout shares; Q3 2026 revenue $173.8m (+336%), RPO $1.2bn, FY2026 guidance $505m to $515m.
Table 8.2 Material contracts and financing arrangements
ContractTerms
SkyWater merger agreement (26 Jan 2026, closed 31 Jul 2026)$15.00 cash plus $20.00 in IonQ stock per SkyWater share, exchange ratio collar 0.3326 to 0.5265; holders received 0.4883 shares; termination fee $51.6m payable by SkyWater; purchase price $1.94bn incl. $986.7m cash.
Elisity merger agreement (9 Oct 2026, closed 3 Nov 2026)32,233,274 shares for $1.15bn at a price collar of $33.07 to $49.61; earnout up to $150m (up to 4,265,934 shares) on revenue milestones to Jan 2028; $100m restricted stock retention pool outside the consideration.
Series C warrants (16 Oct 2026)100m warrants at $69.46 for seven years, exercisable immediately; holders may require purchase at Black Scholes value on a fundamental transaction; accounting classification not yet filed.
Series A and B private warrants (2025 offerings)36.0m at $99.88 to Jul 2032 and 43.0m at $155.00 to Oct 2032; liabilities of $2.12bn at 30 Sep 2026, remeasured each quarter through net income.
Debt assumed with SkyWaterVIE financing $30.5m at 3.44% to Oct 2030 (Minnesota fab building) and tool loans $36.6m, main loan at 11.1% to Mar 2031; finance leases $28.4m.
Computing access commitmentsContingent obligation to purchase $114.8m of quantum computing access if customers exercise rights (10-Q Q3 2026).
Table 8.3 Acquisitions closed, Dec 2024 to Nov 2026
CompanyClosedPurchase priceGoodwillPurpose as filed
Qubitekk Federal27 Dec 2024$22.1m$10.0mquantum networking
ID Quantique (IDQ)30 Apr 2025$116.2m$81.9mquantum networking, quantum safe communications, detection
Lightsynq Technologies30 May 2025$306.2m$235.8mquantum memory, photonic interconnects
Market intelligence business (name not filed)9 Jun 2025$40.6m$33.6mmarket intelligence
Capella Space11 Jul 2025$424.8m$258.1msatellites, space based QKD
Oxford Ionics16 Sep 2025$1.59bn$1.26bnhigh fidelity trapped ion chips, roadmap acceleration, UK expansion
Vector Atomic2 Oct 2025$181.5m$94.2mquantum sensing (atomic clocks)
Skyloom Global26 Jan 2026$191.9m$164.7mfree space optical communications
Seed Innovations30 Jan 2026$30.1m$25.3msoftware, ML, cloud migration
Nexus Photonics30 Jun 2026$76.0m$65.2mintegrated photonics
SkyWater Technology31 Jul 2026$1.94bn$1.03bnUS semiconductor foundry (Minnesota, Texas fabs; Florida packaging); $83.5m revenue in first two months
Elisity3 Nov 2026$1.30bnn/aZero Trust network security
Purchase prices from the FY2025 10-K and Q3 2026 10-Q (Note 3) at share prices on the closing date; Elisity at $1.15bn closing value plus up to $150m earnout, purchase price allocation not yet filed. 2025 total $2.66bn ($2.54bn in stock).
Table 8.4 Equity raised for cash
DateTypeShares (m)PriceNet proceedsTerms
Feb to 10 Mar 2025At the market program, up to $500m16.0n/a$358.3missuance costs $14.3m; terminated Mar 10 2025
9 Jul 2025Underwritten offering, J.P. Morgan14.2$55.49$977.2mplus 3.86m Series A prefunded warrants and 36.04m Series A private warrants (strike $99.88, expire Jul 9 2032); costs $22.8m
14 Oct 2025Underwritten offering, J.P. Morgan16.5$93.00$1.98bnplus 5.01m Series B prefunded warrants and 43.01m Series B private warrants (strike $155.00, expire Oct 14 2032); costs $22.9m
16 Oct 2026Underwritten offering, J.P. Morgan20.5$40.00$1.99bnplus 29.5m prefunded warrants; each share or prefunded warrant sold with two Series C warrants (100m total, strike $69.46, 7 years); combined price $40.00
FY2025 cash proceeds from common stock $3.31bn (cash flow statement); no equity raised for cash in 9M 2026. Stock issued for acquisitions: $2.59bn in FY2025 and $1.16bn in 9M 2026.

9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting

  • One class of common stock, one vote per share, no controlling holder. Shares outstanding rose from 373.2m at the April 2026 record date to about 464.7m after the SkyWater, October offering and Elisity issues, plus 29.5m prefunded warrants.
  • Institutions (Schedules 13G): BlackRock reported 27,763,822 shares at 31 Dec 2025 (7.4% in the 2026 proxy), 19,803,398 (5.3%) at 30 Jun 2026 and 18,193,010 (4.6%) at 30 Sep 2026, below the 5% threshold. Vanguard Capital Management reported 21,108,756 shares (5.21%) at 30 Sep 2026 and Morgan Stanley 20,830,962 (5.6%) at 30 Jun 2026. A 13F holder trend was not collected.
  • 2026 annual meeting (16 Jun 2026): say on pay passed with 53.7% of votes cast (45.9m for, 39.5m against); directors Kathryn Chou (71.3%) and William Scannell (83.0%) elected; Ernst & Young ratified with 99.3%. 166.9m shares were represented, 44.7% of the record date count.
  • Insiders, Nov 2025 to Nov 2026: open market sales $7.21m, mostly under pre arranged plans; largest, then Chief Revenue Officer Rima Alameddine 100,000 shares at $46.89 ($4.69m) in Nov 2025; director Kathryn Chou 25,000 shares ($1.30m) after option exercises. Director William Teuber bought 2,000 shares at $54.82 and 3,000 at $38.39. CEO Niccolo de Masi had tax withholding dispositions only.
  • Trading plans (10-Q Q3 2026): CFO Inder Singh adopted a plan on 1 Sep 2026 for up to 355,094 shares from vesting restricted stock units; lead director Chou up to 22,263 shares; director Toledano 1,728 shares.
Table 9.1 Annual meeting vote results, 16 Jun 2026
ProposalFor (m votes)Against (m votes)Abstain (m votes)For as % of votes castResult
Elect Kathryn K. Chou (Class II director to 2029)61.624.7n/a71.3Elected (against are withheld votes); 71.3% of votes cast for
Elect William F. Scannell (Class II director to 2029)71.714.6n/a83.0Elected (against are withheld votes); 83.0% of votes cast for
Ratify Ernst & Young LLP for 2026165.01.20.899.3Approved
Advisory vote on named executive officer pay45.939.51.053.7Approved; 53.7% of for plus against
Director votes are for and withheld. Broker non votes 80.6m on each item except the auditor ratification. Record date 17 Apr 2026, 373,221,940 shares.

Annual meeting

  • No meeting transcript or remarks were filed; the Item 5.07 8-K of 18 Jun 2026 reports only the vote results.
Table 9.2 Holders and insider transactions
Holder or groupSharesShareSource
Vanguard Capital Management (30 Sep 2026)21,108,7565.21%Schedule 13G, 30 Oct 2026
Morgan Stanley (30 Jun 2026)20,830,9625.6%Schedule 13G, 13 Aug 2026
BlackRock, Inc. (30 Sep 2026)18,193,0104.6%Schedule 13G/A, 27 Oct 2026
BlackRock, Inc. (31 Dec 2025)27,763,8227.4%2026 proxy (Schedule 13G/A of 21 Jan 2026)
Directors and named officers as a group (31 Mar 2026)2,061,2640.55%2026 proxy
Open market purchases, Nov 2025 to Nov 20265,000$0.22mForms 4, director William Teuber
Open market sales, Nov 2025 to Nov 2026n/a$7.21mForms 4, mostly pre arranged plans
Schedule 13G percentages are as filed by each holder; proxy percentages use about 373.2m shares at 31 Mar 2026. About 91m shares were issued after the April 2026 record date.

10 Risk Factors

  • Item 1A of the FY2025 10-K holds 62 risk factors against 64 in FY2024: 3 added (SkyWater closing, SkyWater integration, satellite licences), 5 removed (isotope supply, radioactive material rules, university patent licences, march in rights, management's limited public company experience) and 12 materially reworded. The Q2 2026 10-Q adds 14 factors on SkyWater; the Q3 2026 10-Q adds none for Elisity or the Series C warrants.
Table 10.1 Risk factors and legal matters with filed figures
RiskDisclosure and change
Operating losses and fundingOperating loss $1.27bn TTM; accumulated deficit $1.69bn at 30 Sep 2026; the FY2025 text now says IonQ may never become profitable.
Acquisitions and integration12 deals since Dec 2024; goodwill $3.22bn and intangibles $1.15bn at 30 Sep 2026; the acquisitions factor grew from 257 to 887 words.
Foundry operationsQ2 2026 10-Q adds factors on fab damage, yields, order cancellations, semiconductor cycles, finite capacity, low backlog and competition from TSMC, GlobalFoundries, Tower and X‑FAB.
Warrant and share dilutionSeries A, B and C warrants for 179m shares at $69.46 to $155.00; Elisity earnout up to 4.27m shares; 29.5m prefunded warrants.
Government contracts and export rulesGovernment contracts factor grew from 547 to 882 words (security clearances, foreign ownership); export controls factor from 702 to 999 words.
SatellitesNew factor on FCC spectrum and NOAA remote sensing licences for the Capella business; a satellite of an acquired company was lost at launch in Q3 2023.
Macro and tariffsQ3 2026 10-Q cites Section 232 semiconductor tariffs, the Strait of Hormuz disruption and a Fed rate increase as risks to the foundry business.
LegalNo matters with more than a remote chance of material loss (Note 12); the FY2025 text states IonQ prevailed after the Fourth Circuit upheld dismissal of a securities class action.

How risk factors changed

  • Comparison: 10-K FY2025 filed 25 Feb 2026 acc 0001193125-26-071562 against 10-K FY2024 filed 26 Feb 2025 acc 0000950170-25-027722.
  • Item 1A has 62 factors and 26,163 words in FY2025 against 64 and 25,915 in FY2024: 3 added, 5 removed, 12 materially reworded.
  • Words starting with acqui appear in 19 factors against 14 a year earlier; SkyWater appears in 2 FY2025 factors and in all 14 factors added by the Q2 2026 10-Q.
  • All five removed factors concern trapped ion inputs and university IP (isotopes, radioactive material, Maryland and Duke licences, march in rights).
  • Government related text grew: the government contracts factor rose from 547 to 882 words and the export controls factor from 702 to 999 words, with security clearances and end use monitoring added.
  • Satellites and space appear in 4 FY2025 factors and none in FY2024, after the Capella Space acquisition; China specific trade text was cut from the tariff factor.
Figure 10.1 Risk factors by change against the prior filing
Table 10.2 Size of the risk factor section
Measure10-K FY202410-K FY2025
Risk factors (count)6462
Words in Item 1A25,91526,163
Table 10.3 Risk factors added, removed and materially reworded
ChangeRisk factorWhat changed
AddedSkyWater acquisition may not close on time or at allNew 140 word factor: closing depends on US regulatory approval, which may bring conditions, costs or divestitures; the FTC later issued a Second Request on 24 Apr 2026 and the deal closed 31 Jul 2026.
AddedSkyWater may change results and miss expected benefitsNew 121 word factor: integration of a business in an industry where management has no experience may divert management time and cause unforeseen expenses or revenue losses.
AddedSatellite operations depend on regulatory approvalsNew 185 word factor tied to the Capella Space satellite business: FCC spectrum and NOAA remote sensing licences, NTIA coordination, deployment milestones and tighter FCC orbital debris rules.
RemovedManagement has limited public company experience126 word FY2024 factor on executives' limited experience running a listed company; no stand alone factor in FY2025.
RemovedSupply of isotopically enriched atoms for ion traps238 word factor on reliance on limited suppliers, incl. the DOE National Isotope Development Center; isotope is not named anywhere in FY2025 Item 1A.
RemovedRegulation of radioactive material284 word factor on rules for radioactive atomic species used in trapped ion systems; radioactive is not named in FY2025 Item 1A.
RemovedExclusive patent licences from University of Maryland and Duke634 word factor on in licensed foundational patents; the universities are not named in FY2025 Item 1A.
RemovedGovernment funded in licensed IP and march in rights466 word factor on federal rights over in licensed university IP, incl. march in rights and US manufacturing preference; dropped in FY2025.
RewordedEarly stage company with limited operating historyDrops the link of revenue to algorithmic qubits and networked computers; now states the latest technical roadmap may not be realised as quickly as expected.
RewordedHistory of operating lossesAccumulated deficit $1.19bn at 31 Dec 2025 against $683.7m a year earlier; operating loss $633.7m against $232.5m; adds losses of acquired companies and integration costs; now says IonQ may never become profitable.
RewordedUse of NOLs and tax attributes may be limitedFederal NOLs $653.8m, state $454.7m and foreign $140.6m against federal $224.2m and state $148.1m; adds Section 382 limits from stock issued for acquisitions and limits on acquired subsidiaries' NOLs.
RewordedNo scalable quantum computer yetDevelopment challenge list rewritten: adds ion transport (shuttling qubits within a QPU) and removes the Reconfigurable Multi Core Quantum Architecture item.
RewordedDisruptions, outages and defects in systemsExpanded from 313 to 689 words: cites a Feb 2025 overheating incident in a manufacturing room, satellite risks in orbit, a satellite lost at launch in Q3 2023 by an acquired company, and integration of acquired IT and ERP systems.
RewordedDependence on key employees and executive turnoverHeading adds recent turnover; text states executive and board turnover in 2025 and expected further acquisitions; drops immigration law text.
RewordedGovernment contracts face challengesExpanded from 547 to 882 words: adds small business set asides, defense and intelligence compliance, and facility and personnel security clearances, incl. foreign ownership or influence.
RewordedTariffs and trade measuresCut from 790 to 389 words: China specific tariff, Chinese component ban, unreliable entity list and UFLPA text removed; general trade war language kept.
RewordedExport and import controls and sanctionsExpanded from 702 to 999 words: names BIS and ITAR, adds re export and deemed export rules, end use monitoring for government and satellite customers, and debarment as a penalty.
RewordedAcquisitions and strategic investmentsRewritten from 257 to 887 words: acquisitions named as an important part of growth strategy; adds unlisted investments, possible future divestitures, entry into new markets and inherited liabilities.
RewordedLitigation, investigations and regulatory proceedingsLeacock and Fisher class action docket history removed; now states IonQ prevailed after the Fourth Circuit upheld dismissal; factor cut from 872 to 522 words.
RewordedChanges in tax lawsInflation Reduction Act and R&D capitalisation text replaced with the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which restored immediate expensing of domestic R&D and 100% bonus depreciation.
Table 10.4 Risk factor updates in quarterly reports since the annual filing
FilingChange disclosed
10-Q Q1 2026 filed 7 May 2026No material changes to the FY2025 10-K risk factors.
10-Q Q2 2026 filed 10 Aug 2026Adds 14 factors on SkyWater after its 31 Jul 2026 closing: integration, share price drivers, loss of partners, foundry damage in Minnesota, Florida and Texas, yields, order cancellations, semiconductor demand and cycles, finite capacity, cost overruns, long sales cycles, low backlog, obsolete inventory, and foundry competition incl. CHIPS Act funding (up to $16m preliminary terms for SkyWater plus $19m from Minnesota; over $2bn of May 2026 CHIPS letters of intent to nine companies).
10-Q Q3 2026 filed 5 Nov 2026No material changes to the FY2025 10-K and Q2 2026 10-Q risk factors; no factor added for the Elisity acquisition or the Oct 2026 Series C warrants.

11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity

  • IONQ traded at $28.37 before the regular session on 6 Nov 2026, +7.3% on the 5 Nov close of $26.43 (the close fell 10.5% on the day, before results). The pre market price is 61.5% below the 52 week high of $73.60, 13.8% above the low of $24.92 and 50.4% below $57.20 a year earlier.
  • Valuation: market value $13.2bn on about 464.7m shares ($14.0bn incl. prefunded warrants); EV/Sales 30.4x TTM revenue; no P/E, as operating income is negative and net income comes from warrant gains.
  • Scenario basis: IonQ has no operating profit, so the model values the company on an exit EV/sales multiple: FY2029 revenue grown from the FY2026 guidance midpoint of $510m, times the exit multiple, plus net cash of $3.59bn (30 Sep 2026 cash and investments plus the October offering, less debt), divided by 494.2m shares and prefunded warrants plus 5%. Net cash is held flat at $3.59bn to FY2029 with no cash burn deducted, and the 5% share growth is a model assumption; operating margins are left out of the price.
Figure 11.1 IONQ monthly closing price and three year scenarios

Critical factors and core assumptions

Table 11.1 Critical factors behind the best case
FactorCurrent valueBest case requiresEvidence in filings and calls
Superion 256 deliveriesfirst 256 qubit system sold to Cambridge (Q1 2026); SDT $33m and FIU $25m contracts; NVIDIA deploymentdeliveries in 2027 convert into recognized hardware revenue8-K Ex 99.1 of 6 May and 5 Nov 2026
Backlog conversionRPO $1.17bn, about 50% within 12 monthsRPO keeps growing faster than revenue10-Q Q3 2026
SkyWater profitabilitysegment loss $49.9m on $100.3m, incl. $64.8m depreciationhigher fab use and quantum foundry demand10-Q Q3 2026 MD&A
Cash burn9M 2026 operating cash flow ($570.3m); cash $1.66bn plus $1.99bn October raiseburn funded without further equity raises10-Q Q3 2026 liquidity section
Dilutionabout 464.7m shares plus 29.5m prefunded and 179m warrantsshare price above $69.46 brings cash from Series C exercises10-Q notes; 8-K of 16 Oct 2026
Government programsDARPA QBI Stage C (up to $300m); HALO $39m; optical clocks $28mStage C award and production contracts8-K Ex 99.1 of 6 May and 5 Nov 2026
  • Revenue base FY2026 guidance midpoint $510m; TTM Q3 2026 revenue $380.4m includes only two months of SkyWater, so the guidance midpoint is used.
  • Best case: 55% revenue CAGR to about $1.90bn in FY2029 as backlog converts and foundry demand rises; exit 12x EV/sales.
  • Base case: 32% revenue CAGR to about $1.17bn; exit 6x EV/sales.
  • Worst case: 10% revenue CAGR to about $679m with foundry cycles, order cancellations and delays to the 256 qubit system; exit 2.5x EV/sales.
  • Share count about 494.2m shares and prefunded warrants, plus 5% share growth to FY2029 (model assumption for stock compensation); no further acquisitions; warrant fair value changes excluded; Series C warrants ($69.46) stay unexercised, as each scenario price is below the strike.

Scenarios, three years forward

Table 11.2 Scenario analysis, FY2026 guidance midpoint to FY2029
MeasureWorst caseBase caseBest case
Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%)10.032.055.0
Revenue, FY2029 ($bn)0.71.21.9
Exit EV/Sales (x)2.56.012.0
Implied price ($)102051
Change against $28.37 (%)(64)(28)79
Implied annual return (%)(28.9)(10.3)21.5
Valuation basis: exit EV/sales on FY2029 revenue plus pro forma net cash of $3.59bn, held flat with no cash burn deducted; share count 494.2m plus 5% (model assumption). Operating margins are left out. IonQ pays no dividend.
Figure 11.2 Three year price scenarios

Sensitivity analysis

Table 11.3 Sensitivity of implied price to revenue CAGR and exit EV/Sales
Revenue CAGR \ EV/Sales3x4x6x9x12x
10%$10$12$15$19$23
20%$11$14$17$22$27
32%$13$16$20$27$34
45%$14$19$25$34$43
55%$16$22$29$40$51
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Pre market price of 6 Nov 2026 $28.37. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below. Each cell uses pro forma net cash of $3.59bn held flat (no cash burn deducted) and 518.9m shares (494.2m plus 5%, a model assumption).

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 6 November 2026.

Sources

All company and peer figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server.

Table A.1 Filings used, with accession numbers
FormPeriodFiledAccession number
10-QQ3 20265 Nov 20260001193125-26-449829
8-K (2.01, 2.02) Ex 99.1Q3 20265 Nov 20260001193125-26-449779
10-QQ2 202610 Aug 20260001193125-26-341001
8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1Q2 20265 Aug 20260001193125-26-335040
10-QQ1 20267 May 20260001193125-26-211876
8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1Q1 20266 May 20260001193125-26-208923
10-KFY202525 Feb 20260001193125-26-071562
8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1Q4 202525 Feb 20260001193125-26-071520
10-QQ3 20255 Nov 20250001193125-25-266942
10-QQ2 20256 Aug 20250000950170-25-104066
10-QQ1 20257 May 20250000950170-25-065699
10-KFY202426 Feb 20250000950170-25-027722
10-KFY202328 Feb 20240000950170-24-022072
10-KFY202230 Mar 20230001193125-23-085558
DEF 14A202630 Apr 20260001193125-26-197487
8-K (5.07)2026 AGM18 Jun 20260001193125-26-276342
8-K (7.01) Ex 99.1Guidance8 Sep 20260001193125-26-384388
8-K (1.01)SkyWater merger agreement26 Jan 20260001193125-26-021616
8-K (1.01)Elisity agreement13 Oct 20260001193125-26-419609
8-K (8.01)Oct 2026 offering16 Oct 20260001193125-26-424230
Table A.2 Competitor and other filings used
CompanyFormFiledAccession number
Alphabet (Google Quantum AI)ARS24 Apr 20260001308179-26-000344
D‑Wave Quantum10-Q (peer table)20260001907982-26-000129
D‑Wave Quantum10-K (peer table)20260001907982-26-000026
D‑Wave Quantum8-K Ex 99.16 Aug 20260001907982-26-000127
D‑Wave Quantum8-K Ex 99.18 Sep 20260001907982-26-000141
Honeywell8-K Ex 9922 Oct 20260000773840-26-000141
IBM8-K Ex 99.114 Jul 20260000051143-26-000070
IonQ10-Q Q3 20255 Nov 20250001193125-25-266942
Microsoft (Azure Quantum)ARS21 Oct 20250001193125-25-245177
Quantinuum8-K Ex 99.18 Sep 20260001628280-26-060934
Quantinuum8-K Ex 99.15 Nov 20260001628280-26-071000
Quantum Computing Inc10-Q (peer table)20260001628280-26-055218
Quantum Computing Inc10-K (peer table)20260001213900-26-022417
Quantum Computing Inc8-K Ex 99.110 Aug 20260001213900-26-087267
Rigetti Computing10-Q (peer table)20260001104659-26-091993
Rigetti Computing10-K (peer table)20260001104659-26-023454
Rigetti Computing8-K Ex 99.16 Aug 20260001104659-26-091979
Rigetti Computing8-K Ex 99.18 Sep 20260001104659-26-105662
Tower Semiconductor20-F (peer table)20260001178913-26-002318
Table B.1 Exhibits to Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
FiledExhibitDocumentContent
10 Nov 2025EX-4.1Registration rights agreement with University of ChicagoIonQ issued 2,108,993 common shares to The University of Chicago under an agreement dated 7 Nov 2025; the agreement grants resale registration rights; Resale prospectus supplement filed 10 Nov 2025 under the automatic shelf registration of 26 Feb 2025
10 Nov 2025EX-5.1Legal opinion, Paul, Weiss (University of Chicago resale shares)Opinion on validity of the 2,108,993 resale shares; includes consent as Exhibit 23.1
21 Nov 2025EX-99.1Scott Millard named Chief Business OfficerScott Millard joins as Chief Business Officer reporting to CEO Niccolo de Masi, succeeding Chief Revenue Officer Rima Alameddine (last day 24 Nov 2025); Millard previously led Dell Technologies Global AI Sales, an organisation of over $20bn; earlier ran a $22bn data center partner portfolio
26 Jan 2026EX-2.1Agreement and Plan of Merger with SkyWater TechnologySkyWater holders to receive $15.00 cash plus $20.00 in IonQ stock per share, collar between $37.99 and $60.13 (exchange ratio 0.5265 to 0.3326); SkyWater termination fee $51.6m; on an antitrust termination IonQ buys 2,857,143 new SkyWater shares for $100m
26 Jan 2026EX-10.1Voting agreement with SkyWater holdersHolders of about 19.87% of SkyWater voting power agreed to vote for the merger
26 Jan 2026EX-99.1Joint release: IonQ to acquire SkyWater Technology$35.00 per SkyWater share in cash and stock, implied equity value about $1.8bn; 38.0% premium to the 30 day VWAP at 23 Jan 2026; SkyWater holders to own 4.4% to 6.7% of the combined company under the collar
26 Jan 2026EX-99.2SkyWater transaction investor presentationInvestor slides; text in the filed version is mainly legal notices, figures repeat the joint release
30 Jan 2026EX-10.1Registration rights agreement, Skyloom Global acquisitionSkyloom acquisition (merger agreement of 6 Nov 2025) closed 26 Jan 2026 for up to 3,909,267 IonQ shares; holders received resale registration rights
30 Jan 2026EX-10.2Registration rights agreement, Seed Innovations acquisitionSeed Innovations (Colorado software and ML firm) acquired 30 Jan 2026 for up to 1,171,868 IonQ shares under a purchase agreement of Jan 2026
30 Jan 2026EX-99.1IonQ completes acquisition of SkyloomSkyloom develops free space optical communication terminals for government, aerospace and defense users; Release lists prior acquisitions Capella Space, Lightsynq, a majority stake in ID Quantique and Vector Atomic
30 Jan 2026EX-99.2IonQ to acquire Seed InnovationsSeed joins IonQ Quantum Infrastructure under President Frank Backes; terms not disclosed in the release; Seed, founded 2013, serves the Department of War, the Intelligence Community and commercial clients
25 Feb 2026EX-99.1Q4 and FY2025 resultsFY2025 revenue $130.0m, +202%; Q4 2025 revenue $61.9m, +429%, 55% above guidance midpoint; FY2025 net loss $510.4m (EPS $(1.82)); Q4 2025 net income $753.7m (EPS $2.13); adjusted EBITDA loss $186.8m for FY2025
27 Feb 2026EX-5.1Legal opinion for resale of 5,127,459 sharesProspectus supplement under the automatic shelf registration covers resale of 5,127,459 shares by selling stockholders
11 Mar 2026EX-4.1Registration rights agreement with University of CambridgeIonQ issued 2,562,642 shares to the University of Cambridge under a Collaboration Agreement dated 10 Mar 2026, with resale registration rights; Issuance under a private placement exemption; Q1 2026 release reports the sale of IonQ's first 256 qubit system to Cambridge
11 Mar 2026EX-5.1Legal opinion for University of Cambridge resale sharesOpinion on the 2,562,642 resale shares
6 May 2026EX-99.1Q1 2026 resultsRevenue $64.7m, +755%, 30% above guidance midpoint; RPO $470m, +554%; Net income $805.4m (EPS $2.19); adjusted EBITDA loss $96.8m, or $85.0m excluding SkyWater commercial spend
28 Jul 2026EX-99.1Final regulatory approval for SkyWater acquisitionFTC had issued a Second Request on 24 Apr 2026 (8-K Item 8.01); final approval received 28 Jul 2026; Closing set for 31 Jul 2026; investor day set for 8 Sep 2026
31 Jul 2026EX-99.1IonQ completes acquisition of SkyWater TechnologySkyWater holders received $15.00 cash and 0.4883 IonQ shares per SkyWater share; SkyWater operates as a subsidiary under CEO Thomas Sonderman, reporting to de Masi
5 Aug 2026EX-99.1Q2 2026 resultsRevenue $80.1m, +287%, 20% above guidance midpoint; RPO +297%; Net loss $1.868bn (EPS $(5.08)); adjusted EBITDA loss $120.3m, or $95.6m excluding SkyWater spend
7 Aug 2026EX-5.1Legal opinion for resale of 1,958,951 sharesProspectus supplement covers resale of 1,958,951 shares by selling stockholders under the automatic shelf registration
28 Aug 2026EX-99.1Eric Ball and Timothy Baxter join the BoardBoard expanded by two seats on 24 Aug 2026; Ball (former Oracle Treasurer, arranged $52bn of financing) Class II to 2029; Baxter (former SkyWater Chairman, former Samsung North America CEO) Class III to 2027
8 Sep 2026EX-99.1FY2026 outlook raised after SkyWater acquisitionFY2026 revenue guidance $450m to $460m incl. SkyWater from 31 Jul 2026, net of intercompany revenue; Issued on the day of the first joint investor day
13 Oct 2026EX-2.1Agreement and Plan of Merger with ElisityClosing consideration IonQ shares worth $1.15bn, priced at the 20 day VWAP within a $33.07 to $49.61 band, less leakage since 31 Jul 2026; Earnout up to $150m in shares on Elisity revenue milestones from 1 Aug 2026 to 31 Jan 2028; retention pool for continuing employees
13 Oct 2026EX-99.1IonQ to acquire ElisityAll stock deal valued at up to $1.3bn for the Zero Trust security company; Release cites a microsegmentation market of more than $10bn, more than 100 customer deployments and revenue doubling year on year
16 Oct 2026EX-1.1Underwriting agreement with J.P. Morgan20,500,000 shares and 29,500,000 prefunded warrants, each with two Series C warrants, at a combined $40.00; underwriting discount $0.20 per unit; Gross proceeds about $2.0bn (Q3 2026 release); lock up agreements with certain officers, directors and holders
16 Oct 2026EX-4.1Series C warrant agreement100,000,000 Series C warrants, exercise price $69.46, seven year term, exercisable immediately; 4.99% beneficial ownership cap (up to 9.99%); Holders may require purchase at Black Scholes value on a Fundamental Transaction
16 Oct 2026EX-4.3Pre funded warrant agreement29,500,000 prefunded warrants at $0.0001 exercise price, seven year term
16 Oct 2026EX-5.1Legal opinion for the October 2026 offeringOpinion on the shares, prefunded warrants and Series C warrants issued under the automatic shelf registration
5 Nov 2026EX-10.1Registration rights agreement, Elisity holdersElisity closed 3 Nov 2026 for 32,233,274 shares plus up to 4,265,934 earnout shares (total up to 36,499,208)
5 Nov 2026EX-99.1Q3 2026 resultsRevenue $173.8m, +336%; IonQ Platform segment $90.3m, +127%; SkyWater Foundry Services segment $83.5m; RPO $1.2bn; quantum computing about two thirds of new IonQ Platform contract dollars
5 Nov 2026EX-99.2IonQ completes acquisition of Elisity$1.15bn of consideration issued in common stock at closing; up to $150m more on revenue milestones through Jan 2028; Elisity keeps its leadership under CEO James Winebrenner; more than 100 deployments