Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Financial Analysis
Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.
Q2 2026 revenue rose 23% and gross margin reached 61.4%. Free cash flow was $6.5bn in four quarters to June 2026, after capital expenditures of $14.4bn in 2023 to 2025. Five years of 10-K data, quarterly filings to 30 June 2026, current reports to 17 September 2026, scenarios to 2029.
Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for 2021 to 2025, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 2024 to Q2 2026, the Forms 8-K filed from October 2025 to September 2026 and their quarterly earnings exhibits 99, the Form 425 of February 2026, the proxy statement of 2026, Schedules 13G, Forms 13F and Forms 3 and 4 on the record for central index key 97476, together with the comparable filings of five peers. Accession numbers for every filing used appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are closing prices of 5 October 2026.
Share price $294.90 52 week range $152.73 to $334.03 | Market value $269bn Net debt $7.05bn at 30 June 2026 | Price to earnings 44.9x EPS $6.57, four quarters to Q2 2026; 34.5x on 2026E | Q2 2026 revenue $5.46bn 22.8% against Q2 2025 | Gross margin 61.4% 57.9% in Q2 2025; 68.8% in 2022 | Free cash flow $6.53bn Four quarters to Q2 2026, 33.6% of revenue |
- Stock. Shares closed at $294.90 on 5 October 2026, 12% below 52 week high and 93% above 52 week low. Price equals 44.9 times EPS for four quarters to 30 June 2026 and 34.5 times estimated 2026 EPS of $8.56.
- Latest quarter. Q2 2026 revenue was $5.46bn, up 23% on Q2 2025 and 13% on Q1 2026. Analog revenue rose 26% to $4.37bn; Embedded Processing rose 16% to $788m. Operating profit rose 48% to $2.31bn and EPS was $2.14 against $1.41.
- Guidance. Q3 2026 guidance is revenue of $5.65bn to $6.15bn and EPS of $2.23 to $2.57. Reported revenue exceeded top of guided range in Q1 and Q2 2026.
- Investment cycle. Capital expenditures were $1.19bn in first half of 2026 against $2.43bn a year earlier; 2026 guidance is $2bn to $3bn after $4.55bn in 2025. Depreciation rose 23% to $1.09bn in first half.
- Cash. Free cash flow of $6.53bn for four quarters to June 2026 includes $1.18bn of CHIPS Act proceeds. Dividends paid were $5.11bn, 78% of free cash flow. Quarterly dividend rises 7% to $1.52 in November 2026, subject to board declaration.
- Acquisition. Agreement of 4 February 2026 to buy Silicon Laboratories for $231.00 a share in cash, about $7.5bn enterprise value, is expected to close in first half of 2027 with about $7bn of new debt.
- Scenarios. 2029 EPS is $6.75 in worst case, $12.32 in base case and $15.03 in best case. At 18, 26 and 32 times earnings, implied value per share is $122, $320 and $481. Earnings multiple and revenue growth move base case value most.
1 Revenue & Business Model
Texas Instruments designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing chips, most of them in its own factories. Analog segment, which sells power management and signal chain chips, produced 80% of Q2 2026 revenue at an operating margin of 45.6%. Embedded Processing segment, which sells microcontrollers and processors, produced 14% at 21.3%. 10-K reports more than 80,000 products, over 100,000 customers and more than 80% of 2025 revenue sold direct. One end customer supplied 12% of revenue in 2025 and 2024.
Industrial and automotive customers each supplied 33% of 2025 revenue, data center 9% and personal electronics 21%. Revenue estimate for 2026 of $21.9bn is 9% above 2022 revenue of $20.0bn, previous high. Customers based in China supplied 22% of first half 2026 revenue and 21% of 2025 revenue; products shipped into China were about 50% of 2025 revenue (10-K Item 1A).
| Table 1. End market revenue growth against prior year, as stated by management | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| End market | Share of 2025 revenue | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
| Industrial | 33% | About 25% | High teens | About 30% | About 30% |
| Automotive | 33% | Upper single digits | Upper single digits | Mid single digits | Mid teens |
| Data center | 9% | More than 50% | About 70% | About 90% | About 100% |
| Personal electronics | 21% | Low single digits | Upper teens decline | Flat | Flat |
| Communications equipment | 3% | About 45% | Low single digit decline | About 25% | Increase |
| Table 2. Revenue by end customer headquarters, $bn and share of revenue | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q2 2026 |
| United States | 5.81 (33%) | 5.96 (38%) | 6.76 (38%) | 2.13 (39%) |
| China | 3.29 (19%) | 3.01 (19%) | 3.78 (21%) | 1.22 (22%) |
| Rest of Asia | 1.72 (10%) | 1.68 (11%) | 1.89 (11%) | 0.61 (11%) |
| Europe, Middle East and Africa | 4.64 (26%) | 3.52 (22%) | 3.75 (21%) | 1.07 (20%) |
| Japan | 1.78 (10%) | 1.21 (8%) | 1.17 (7%) | 0.33 (6%) |
| Rest of world | 0.27 (2%) | 0.26 (2%) | 0.33 (2%) | 0.10 (2%) |
| Table 3. Segment results by quarter, $bn | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Segment line | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Q1 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 |
| Analog revenue | 3.22 | 3.17 | 3.21 | 3.45 | 3.73 | 3.62 | 3.92 | 4.37 |
| Analog operating profit | 1.32 | 1.24 | 1.21 | 1.32 | 1.49 | 1.40 | 1.64 | 1.99 |
| Analog operating margin | 40.8% | 39.0% | 37.6% | 38.4% | 39.8% | 38.6% | 41.7% | 45.6% |
| Embedded Processing revenue | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.72 | 0.79 |
| Embedded Processing operating profit | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Embedded Processing operating margin | 16.7% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 12.5% | 15.2% | 10.7% | 16.9% | 21.3% |
| Other revenue | 0.28 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 0.32 | 0.30 | 0.15 | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| Other operating profit | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Total revenue | 4.15 | 4.01 | 4.07 | 4.45 | 4.74 | 4.42 | 4.83 | 5.46 |
| Revenue growth against prior year | (8.4%) | (1.7%) | 11.1% | 16.4% | 14.2% | 10.4% | 18.6% | 22.8% |
2 Financial Analysis & Ratios
Gross margin was 61.4% in Q2 2026 against 57.9% in Q2 2025; operating margin was 42.3% against 35.1%. R&D and selling, general and administrative expenses together rose 1.3% while revenue rose 23%. Embedded Processing operating margin was 21.3% against 12.5%; 10-Q states that costs of Lehi factory now benefit that segment as production ramps. Acquisition charges of $17m a quarter in 2026 are Silicon Labs transaction costs.
| Table 4. What changed: Q2 2026 and first half against prior year, $bn | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change | H1 2026 | H1 2025 | Change |
| Revenue | 5.46 | 4.45 | 22.8% | 10.29 | 8.52 | 20.8% |
| Analog | 4.37 | 3.45 | 26.4% | 8.29 | 6.66 | 24.4% |
| Embedded Processing | 0.79 | 0.68 | 16.1% | 1.51 | 1.33 | 14.0% |
| Other | 0.31 | 0.32 | (2.2%) | 0.49 | 0.53 | (7.8%) |
| Gross profit | 3.35 | 2.58 | 30.2% | 6.15 | 4.89 | 25.8% |
| R&D expense | 0.54 | 0.53 | 1.5% | 1.04 | 1.04 | 0.1% |
| Selling, general and administrative | 0.49 | 0.48 | 1.0% | 0.95 | 0.96 | (0.3%) |
| Operating profit | 2.31 | 1.56 | 47.8% | 4.12 | 2.89 | 42.6% |
| Net income | 1.98 | 1.29 | 52.9% | 3.52 | 2.47 | 42.5% |
| Diluted EPS, $ | 2.14 | 1.41 | 51.8% | 3.82 | 2.69 | 42.0% |
| Depreciation | 0.55 | 0.46 | 18.9% | 1.09 | 0.88 | 23.1% |
| Operating cash flow | 2.70 | 1.86 | 45.3% | 4.22 | 2.71 | 55.9% |
| Capital expenditures | 0.51 | 1.30 | (60.6%) | 1.19 | 2.43 | (51.0%) |
| CHIPS Act proceeds | 0.55 | 0.00 | n/a | 1.10 | 0.26 | 324.6% |
| Free cash flow | 2.74 | 0.56 | 393.3% | 4.14 | 0.54 | 664.7% |
| Gross margin | 61.4% | 57.9% | 3.5 pts | 59.8% | 57.4% | 2.4 pts |
| Operating margin | 42.3% | 35.1% | 7.2 pts | 40.0% | 33.9% | 6.1 pts |
| Analog operating margin | 45.6% | 38.4% | 7.2 pts | 43.8% | 38.0% | 5.8 pts |
Depreciation was 10.9% of revenue in four quarters to June 2026 against 4.6% in 2022, and property, plant and equipment at cost rose from $7.9bn to $17.9bn. CHIPS Act incentives have reduced carrying value of manufacturing assets by $4.51bn to end of 2025 and lowered 2025 cost of revenue by $353m through lower depreciation (10-K). Free cash flow per share was $7.10 for four quarters to June 2026 against $3.22 in 2025 and $6.72 in 2021.
| Table 5. Five year financial summary, $bn | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calendar year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | TTM |
| Revenue | 18.34 | 20.03 | 17.52 | 15.64 | 17.68 | 19.45 |
| Gross profit | 12.38 | 13.77 | 11.02 | 9.09 | 10.08 | 11.35 |
| R&D expense | 1.55 | 1.67 | 1.86 | 1.96 | 2.08 | 2.08 |
| Operating profit | 8.96 | 10.14 | 7.33 | 5.46 | 6.02 | 7.25 |
| Net income | 7.77 | 8.75 | 6.51 | 4.80 | 5.00 | 6.05 |
| Diluted EPS, $ | 8.26 | 9.41 | 7.07 | 5.20 | 5.45 | 6.57 |
| Dividends declared per share, $ | 4.21 | 4.69 | 5.02 | 5.26 | 5.50 | 5.62 |
| Depreciation | 0.76 | 0.93 | 1.18 | 1.51 | 1.92 | 2.12 |
| Operating cash flow | 8.76 | 8.72 | 6.42 | 6.32 | 7.15 | 8.67 |
| Capital expenditures | 2.46 | 2.80 | 5.07 | 4.82 | 4.55 | 3.31 |
| CHIPS Act proceeds | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1.18 |
| Free cash flow | 6.29 | 5.92 | 1.35 | 1.50 | 2.94 | 6.53 |
| Share repurchases | 0.53 | 3.62 | 0.29 | 0.93 | 1.48 | 0.71 |
| Dividends paid | 3.89 | 4.30 | 4.56 | 4.79 | 5.00 | 5.11 |
| Cash and short term investments | 9.74 | 9.07 | 8.57 | 7.58 | 4.88 | 7.00 |
| Inventories | 1.91 | 2.76 | 4.00 | 4.53 | 4.80 | 4.61 |
| Property, plant and equipment, net | 5.14 | 6.88 | 10.00 | 11.35 | 12.32 | 11.91 |
| Total assets | 24.68 | 27.21 | 32.35 | 35.51 | 34.59 | 35.88 |
| Total debt | 7.74 | 8.73 | 11.22 | 13.60 | 14.05 | 14.05 |
| Stockholders' equity | 13.33 | 14.58 | 16.90 | 16.90 | 16.27 | 18.01 |
| Table 6. Ratio analysis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ratio | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | TTM |
| Growth | ||||||
| Revenue growth | n/a | 9.2% | (12.5%) | (10.7%) | 13.0% | 16.7% |
| Margin | ||||||
| Gross margin | 67.5% | 68.8% | 62.9% | 58.1% | 57.0% | 58.3% |
| Operating margin | 48.8% | 50.6% | 41.8% | 34.9% | 34.1% | 37.3% |
| Net margin | 42.4% | 43.7% | 37.2% | 30.7% | 28.3% | 31.1% |
| Analog operating margin | 52.6% | 54.4% | 44.6% | 37.9% | 38.6% | 41.6% |
| Embedded Processing operating margin | 38.5% | 38.4% | 29.9% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 16.3% |
| R&D to revenue | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 11.8% | 10.7% |
| Depreciation to revenue | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 10.9% |
| Effective tax rate | 12.9% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 12.4% |
| Return | ||||||
| Return on average equity | n/a | 62.7% | 41.4% | 28.4% | 30.1% | 35.2% |
| Operating profit to average debt plus equity | n/a | 45.7% | 28.5% | 18.6% | 19.8% | 23.2% |
| Cash | ||||||
| Free cash flow margin | 34.3% | 29.6% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 16.6% | 33.6% |
| Free cash flow per share, $ | 6.72 | 6.40 | 1.47 | 1.63 | 3.22 | 7.10 |
| Capital expenditures to revenue | 13.4% | 14.0% | 28.9% | 30.8% | 25.7% | 17.0% |
| Buybacks and dividends to free cash flow | 70% | 134% | 360% | 382% | 220% | 89% |
| Leverage and liquidity | ||||||
| Debt to equity, times | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.66 | 0.80 | 0.86 | 0.78 |
| Net debt to EBITDA, times | (0.21) | (0.03) | 0.31 | 0.86 | 1.15 | 0.75 |
| Operating profit to interest expense, times | 48.7 | 47.4 | 20.8 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 12.9 |
| Current ratio, times | 5.33 | 4.70 | 4.55 | 4.12 | 4.35 | 4.86 |
| Efficiency | ||||||
| Days of inventory, as disclosed | 116 | 157 | 219 | 241 | 222 | 196 |
| Days sales outstanding, as disclosed | 32 | 37 | 39 | 39 | 40 | 42 |
| Revenue to average total assets, times | n/a | 0.77 | 0.59 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| Revenue to average net property, plant and equipment, times | n/a | 3.33 | 2.08 | 1.47 | 1.49 | 1.61 |
3 MD&A & Management Commentary
10-Q for Q2 2026 describes broad growth led by industrial, data center and automotive customers. On 22 July 2026 call, management described industrial revenue as 5 to 6 points below its 2022 high, reported lead times below 13 weeks with an increase of about two weeks, and said price increases had started customer by customer after flat pricing in first half. Data center revenue doubled against Q2 2025.
| Table 7. Guidance against reported results | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter | Revenue guidance, $bn | Reported | EPS guidance, $ | Reported | Gross margin |
| Q4 2025 | 4.22 to 4.58 | 4.42 | 1.13 to 1.39 | 1.27 | 56% |
| Q1 2026 | 4.32 to 4.68 | 4.83 | 1.22 to 1.48 | 1.68 | 58% |
| Q2 2026 | 5.00 to 5.40 | 5.46 | 1.77 to 2.05 | 2.14 | 61% |
| Q3 2026 | 5.65 to 6.15 | n/a | 2.23 to 2.57 | n/a | n/a |
| Table 8. Capital framework stated by management | |
|---|---|
| Item | Statement |
| Capital expenditures | $2bn to $3bn in 2026; later years at 1.2 times long term revenue growth rate, as % of revenue, before incentives |
| Depreciation | $2.2bn to $2.4bn in 2026; rising at a slower rate in 2027 |
| Free cash flow | More than $8 per share in 2026 at February 2026 revenue consensus; long term objective 25% to 35% of revenue |
| 300mm wafers | Chip cost about 40% lower than on 200mm wafers (10-K) |
| CHIPS Act | 35% investment tax credit from 2026; direct funding up to $1.6bn, $630m received (10-Q) |
| Inventory | Target range 150 to 250 days; 196 days at 30 June 2026 (10-Q) |
4 Sector & Competitor Analysis
WSTS reports analog chip sales of $86.5bn in 2025, up 8.7%, and forecasts $95.4bn for 2026, up 10.2%, and $101.7bn for 2027, up 6.6%. Whole semiconductor market is forecast to grow 90% in 2026, with memory supplying most of increase. TI Analog segment revenue equalled 16.2% of WSTS analog sales in 2025 against 19.0% in 2021. TI revenue grew 16.7% in latest four quarters; Analog Devices grew 33.6% and Microchip 20.9%.
| Table 9. Texas Instruments against seven analog and embedded chip peers | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Fiscal year end | Revenue | Growth | Growth, latest four quarters | Gross margin | Operating margin | R&D to revenue | Capital expenditures to revenue | Free cash flow margin | Days of inventory | Market value | Forward P/E |
| Texas Instruments | Dec 2025 | $17.7bn | 13.0% | 16.7% | 57.0% | 34.1% | 11.8% | 25.7% | 14.7% | 231 | $269bn | 30.5 |
| Analog Devices | Nov 2025 | $11.0bn | 16.9% | 33.6% | 61.5% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 4.8% | 38.8% | 142 | $203bn | 26.3 |
| Microchip | Mar 2026 | $4.7bn | 7.1% | 20.9% | 57.7% | 10.4% | 23.0% | 1.9% | 18.5% | 190 | $44bn | 20.7 |
| NXP | Dec 2025 | $12.3bn | (2.7%) | 8.8% | 54.7% | 24.8% | 19.2% | 3.2% | 19.7% | 169 | $61bn | 14.5 |
| onsemi | Dec 2025 | $6.0bn | (15.3%) | (3.1%) | 33.1% | 1.4% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 23.7% | 181 | $33bn | 22.1 |
| ST | Dec 2025 | $11.8bn | (11.1%) | 10.5% | 33.9% | 1.5% | 17.3% | 17.9% | 0.3% | 147 | $51bn | 27.2 |
| Infineon | Sep 2025 | EUR 14.7bn | (2.0%) | 6.5% | 39.2% | 10.3% | 15.2% | 12.3% | 9.4% | 170 | EUR 84bn | 24.9 |
| Renesas | Dec 2025 | JPY 1.32tn | (2.0%) | 16.8% | 57.1% | 15.2% | n/a | 6.7% | 27.5% | 120 | JPY 6.36tn | 17.2 |
| Table 10. Cycle indicators disclosed by TI and peers | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company | Indicator | Latest | Comparison | Source |
| Texas Instruments | Days of inventory | 196 at 30 June 2026 | 231 at 30 June 2025 | 10-Q 0000097476-26-000152 |
| Microchip | Days of inventory held by distributors | 25 at 30 June 2026 | 26 at 31 March 2026 | 10-Q 0000827054-26-000038 |
| STMicroelectronics | Days of inventory | 126 in Q2 2026 | 166 in Q2 2025 | 6-K 0000932787-26-000052 |
| Analog Devices | Industrial revenue growth against prior year | 53% in quarter to 1 August 2026 | 10-Q 0000006281-26-000073 | |
| NXP | Revenue through distributors, growth against prior year | 26.7% in Q2 2026 | 10-Q 0001413447-26-000045 | |
TI operating margin of 34.1% in 2025 was highest in group; its capital expenditures of 25.7% of revenue compare with 4.8% at Analog Devices and 12.3% at Infineon. A share bought at end of October 2021 was worth 171 at end of September 2026 on a base of 100, dividends included, against 366 for PHLX Semiconductor index, which excludes dividends.
5 Material Events & Contracts
| Table 11. Form 8-K filings, 1 October 2025 to 6 October 2026 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Filed | Item | Event | Accession number |
| 16 Oct 2025 | 5.02 | Richard Templeton retires as chairman on 31 December 2025; chief executive Haviv Ilan becomes chairman. | 0000950103-25-013275 |
| 21 Oct 2025 | 2.02 | Q3 2025 revenue $4.74bn, EPS $1.48. Restructuring charges of $85m linked to closure of last two 150mm factories. | 0000097476-25-000056 |
| 27 Jan 2026 | 2.02 | Q4 2025 revenue $4.42bn, EPS $1.27. 2025 revenue $17.68bn, EPS $5.45. | 0000097476-26-000003 |
| 4 Feb 2026 | 7.01 | Agreement to acquire Silicon Laboratories for $231.00 a share in cash, about $7.5bn enterprise value. | 0001193125-26-036727 |
| 6 Feb 2026 | 5.03 | Bylaws amended to name Delaware Court of Chancery as forum for certain claims. | 0001193125-26-040312 |
| 25 Mar 2026 | 5.02 | Senior vice president Hagop Kozanian retires on 31 August 2026. | 0001193125-26-124057 |
| 17 Apr 2026 | 5.07 | Annual meeting voting results. | 0000097476-26-000094 |
| 22 Apr 2026 | 2.02 | Q1 2026 revenue $4.83bn, EPS $1.68. Acquisition charges of $17m. | 0000097476-26-000097 |
| 2 Jun 2026 | 5.02 | Julie Knecht becomes chief financial officer on 1 August 2026; Rafael Lizardi retires after 25 years. | 0000950103-26-008325 |
| 22 Jul 2026 | 2.02 | Q2 2026 revenue $5.46bn, EPS $2.14. Q3 guidance: revenue $5.65bn to $6.15bn, EPS $2.23 to $2.57. | 0000097476-26-000148 |
| 17 Sep 2026 | 7.01 | Quarterly dividend to rise 7% from $1.42 to $1.52, payable 10 November 2026; 23 consecutive years of increases. | 0000950103-26-014118 |
| Table 12. Silicon Laboratories acquisition as filed | |
|---|---|
| Item | Terms |
| Price and value | $231.00 per share in cash; enterprise value about $7.5bn; no financing condition |
| Target | 2025 revenue $785m; about 85% from industrial customers; more than 15,000 customers |
| Financing | About $7bn of new debt: investment grade bonds and commercial paper; $5bn delayed draw term loan signed June 2026, undrawn |
| Synergies | About $450m a year within three years of closing, more than half in cost of goods sold; about 75% of Silicon Labs 2030 revenue to be made in TI factories |
| Timing | Close expected in first half of 2027, subject to Silicon Labs stockholder vote and approvals in several countries, China among them |
| Table 13. Material contracts and commitments | |
|---|---|
| Contract | Terms as filed |
| Debt | $14.15bn of fixed rate notes maturing 2026 to 2063; $1.15bn due within 12 months of 30 June 2026. $1bn revolving credit facility undrawn. |
| Purchase commitments | $1.44bn at 31 December 2025, of which $440m due in 2026. |
| CHIPS Act direct funding | Agreement with US Department of Commerce for up to $1.6bn for three 300mm factories in Sherman, Texas, and Lehi, Utah, paid on milestones. |
| CHIPS Act receivables | $1.01bn current and $1.16bn long term at 30 June 2026. |
| Buyback authorization | $18.61bn remaining at 30 June 2026; $185m repurchased in first half of 2026. |
6 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting
913.2m common shares were outstanding at 15 July 2026. All twelve director nominees were elected on 16 April 2026 with 662.0m to 749.5m votes for.
| Table 14. 2026 annual meeting: votes on proposals, m shares | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proposal | Proponent | For | Against | For, % of votes cast |
| Advisory vote on executive pay | Board | 629.9 | 127.4 | 83.2% |
| Ratify Ernst & Young as auditor for 2026 | Board | 757.8 | 55.3 | 93.2% |
| Permit stockholders to act by written consent | John Chevedden | 338.7 | 417.9 | 44.8% |
| Table 15. Form 13F positions in TI common stock at 30 June 2026 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Manager | Shares, m | % of shares outstanding |
| BlackRock | 82.6 | 9.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | 59.4 | 6.5% |
| State Street | 44.5 | 4.9% |
| Geode Capital Management | 24.0 | 2.6% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | 21.2 | 2.3% |
| Norges Bank | 13.2 | 1.4% |
| Wellington Management | 13.1 | 1.4% |
| Northern Trust | 9.4 | 1.0% |
7 Insider Activity
Nineteen officers and directors sold 450,210 shares for about $119.0m between 6 October 2025 and 6 October 2026, most after exercising stock options on same day. No Form 4 marks a Rule 10b5-1 plan and none reports an open market purchase. Sales were dated 13 November 2025 to 27 August 2026, most of them between 5 February and 28 May 2026.
| Table 16. Open market sales by officers and directors, 12 months to 6 October 2026 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Person | Role | Shares sold | Proceeds, $m | Average price, $ | Dates |
| Rafael Lizardi | Chief financial officer to July 2026 | 159,903 | 41.7 | 260.83 | 10 Feb to 14 May 2026 |
| Mohammad Yunus | Senior vice president | 51,098 | 13.8 | 270.44 | 29 Apr 2026 |
| Mark Gary | Senior vice president | 36,858 | 9.1 | 245.78 | 10 Feb to 30 Apr 2026 |
| Mark Roberts | Senior vice president | 32,541 | 8.9 | 272.23 | 9 Feb to 30 Apr 2026 |
| Shanon Leonard | Senior vice president | 23,152 | 6.5 | 281.66 | 24 Apr to 11 May 2026 |
| Haviv Ilan | Chairman, president and chief executive | 20,000 | 5.6 | 280.32 | 4 May 2026 |
| Thirteen other officers and directors | 126,658 | 33.5 | 264.16 | 13 Nov 2025 to 27 Aug 2026 | |
| Total | 450,210 | 119.0 | 264.38 | ||
8 Risk Factors
10-Q for Q2 2026 makes no change to risk factors in 2025 10-K. Table lists disclosed risks with figures from both filings.
| Table 17. Disclosed risks and changes since 2025 10-K | ||
|---|---|---|
| Risk | Disclosure with figures | Change in 2026 filings |
| Fixed manufacturing cost | Depreciation rose from $755m in 2021 to $1.92bn in 2025. 10-K states these costs do not fall with demand or factory loadings. | Depreciation of $1.09bn in first half of 2026. |
| China and trade measures | 21% of 2025 revenue came from customers based in China and about 50% from products shipped there. 10-K names tariffs specific to its products and export restrictions. | 22% in first half of 2026. |
| Competition from China | 10-K expects more competition from emerging companies, particularly in Asia, supported by state policy and investment. | No change. |
| Government incentives | CHIPS Act receivables were $3.35bn at end of 2025. 10-K states incentives could be reduced, modified, clawed back or terminated. | $2.16bn at 30 June 2026 after $1.10bn of cash proceeds. |
| Customer concentration | One end customer supplied 12% of revenue in 2025 and 2024. | No update in 10-Q. |
| Debt | Debt of $14.05bn at 30 June 2026 against $7.74bn at end of 2021. A 100 basis point rise in rates lowers fair value of debt by $969m. | About $7bn of acquisition debt is planned. |
| Acquisition | Silicon Labs purchase requires approvals in several countries, China among them. | Agreement announced 4 February 2026. |
9 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity
Three cases cover 2027 to 2029 for TI without Silicon Labs, which had not closed at publication. All start from 2026 revenue of $21.9bn and EPS of $8.56, estimated from first half reported, Q3 guidance midpoint and Q4 revenue at 97% of Q3. Base case 2027 revenue of $24.9bn equals analyst consensus of 6 October 2026. Worst case repeats a downturn of 10% in 2028; revenue fell 12.5% in 2023 and 10.7% in 2024. Best case reaches gross margin of 67% in 2029, against 68.8% reported for 2022. Each case is an estimate under assumptions in table below.
| Table 18. Scenario assumptions and results, 2027 to 2029 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worst case | Base case | Best case | ||||||||
| 2026E | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |
| Assumptions | ||||||||||
| Revenue growth | 23.9% | 2.0% | (10.0%) | 3.0% | 13.8% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 18.0% | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Gross margin | 61.0% | 59.0% | 55.0% | 56.0% | 62.0% | 63.0% | 63.5% | 64.0% | 66.0% | 67.0% |
| R&D and selling, general and administrative expenses, $bn | 4.00 | 4.08 | 4.08 | 4.16 | 4.20 | 4.41 | 4.63 | 4.24 | 4.49 | 4.76 |
| Depreciation, $bn | 2.30 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.65 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.95 |
| Capital expenditures to revenue | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 15% | 15% | 14% |
| Results | ||||||||||
| Revenue, $bn | 21.9 | 22.3 | 20.1 | 20.7 | 24.9 | 26.9 | 28.3 | 25.9 | 29.0 | 31.3 |
| Operating profit, $bn | n/a | 9.1 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 11.3 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 14.6 | 16.2 |
| Operating margin | n/a | 40.8% | 34.7% | 35.9% | 45.2% | 46.6% | 47.1% | 47.6% | 50.5% | 51.8% |
| Net income, $bn | 7.9 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 13.8 |
| Diluted EPS, $ | 8.56 | 8.33 | 6.32 | 6.75 | 10.37 | 11.59 | 12.32 | 11.36 | 13.54 | 15.03 |
| Free cash flow per share, $ | n/a | 10.04 | 9.34 | 9.13 | 10.77 | 12.42 | 13.29 | 10.67 | 12.95 | 14.79 |
| Price to earnings multiple applied, times | 18 | 26 | 32 | |||||||
| Implied value per share, $ | 294.90 | 122 | 320 | 481 | ||||||
Critical factors behind best case
| Table 19. Critical factors, evidence and best case assumption | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Factor | Evidence in filings and company statements | Best case assumes | Indicator |
| Revenue growth | Revenue rose 23% in Q2 2026 and Q3 guidance midpoint implies 24%. Management put industrial revenue 5 to 6 points below its 2022 high (call, 22 July 2026). | Growth of 18%, 12% and 8%; 2029 revenue $31.3bn against $20.0bn in 2022 | Quarterly revenue against guidance; backlog and lead times |
| Data center demand | Data center supplied 9% of 2025 revenue, $1.5bn, and doubled against prior year in Q2 2026 (10-K; call). | Share of revenue keeps rising | Growth rate stated each quarter |
| Gross margin | 61.4% in Q2 2026 against 68.8% in 2022, with depreciation at 10.0% of revenue against 4.6%. 300mm chips cost about 40% less (10-K). | 67% in 2029 with depreciation of $2.95bn | Gross margin and depreciation each quarter |
| Pricing | Prices fell by low single digits in 2025 and were flat in first half of 2026; increases started customer by customer (call, 22 July 2026). | Price increases hold through 2029 | Management comment on like for like pricing |
| Capital intensity | Capital expenditures fell to $3.31bn in four quarters to June 2026. Management rule sets later spending at 1.2 times growth rate. | 14% to 15% of revenue, before 35% tax credit | Capital expenditure guidance in February 2027 |
| China | Customers based in China supplied 22% of first half 2026 revenue; 10-K names domestic competitors and tariffs as risks. | Share of revenue from China is maintained | Revenue by customer headquarters in each 10-Q |
Sensitivity of base case
| Table 20. Base case 2029 EPS of $12.32 and free cash flow per share of $13.29: effect of each input | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Input and range | At low end, $ | At high end, $ | Change from base, $ |
| Gross margin, 3 points lower or higher | 11.52 | 13.12 | (0.80) to 0.80 |
| Revenue growth, 3 points lower or higher | 10.95 | 13.76 | (1.37) to 1.44 |
| Tax rate, 16% to 11% | 11.89 | 12.60 | (0.42) to 0.28 |
| Diluted shares, 3% higher or lower | 11.96 | 12.70 | (0.36) to 0.38 |
| Capital expenditures, 3 points of revenue higher or lower (free cash flow per share) | 12.63 | 13.96 | (0.66) to 0.66 |
Alternative views
- Range of analyst estimates. Consensus for 2027 is revenue of $24.9bn within a range of $22.8bn to $29.6bn, and EPS of $10.10 within $8.64 to $13.50. Worst and best cases for 2027 give $22.3bn and $25.9bn.
- Cycle length. Management described demand in July 2026 as early in a broad cycle. Revenue fell for two years after 2022 high, and TI's days of inventory rose from 116 at end of 2021 to 241 at end of 2024.
- Free cash flow. Base case free cash flow of 43% of revenue in 2029 is above management's long term objective of 25% to 35%. Difference comes from gross margin of 63.5% and capital expenditures of 10% of revenue before tax credit; at 15% of revenue, base case free cash flow per share falls by $1.11.
- Valuation. Shares trade at 34.5 times estimated 2026 EPS. Base case applies 26 times to 2029 EPS; at 22 times implied value is $271 and at 30 times $370.
Sources
SEC filings, retrieved through sec-api.io. 10-K 2021 0000097476-22-000009, 10-K 2022 0000097476-23-000007, 10-K 2023 0000097476-24-000007, 10-Q 2024Q1 0000097476-24-000021, 10-Q 2024Q2 0000097476-24-000030, 10-Q 2024Q3 0000097476-24-000042, 10-K 2024 0000097476-25-000007, 10-Q 2025Q1 0000097476-25-000027, 10-Q 2025Q2 0000097476-25-000036, 10-Q 2025Q3 0000097476-25-000060, 10-K 2025 0000097476-26-000059, 10-Q 2026Q1 0000097476-26-000101, 10-Q 2026Q2 0000097476-26-000152. Forms 8-K, 425, DEF 14A, 13F and Forms 4 as cited in tables. Peer filings: Analog Devices 10-K 0000006281-25-000153 and 10-Q 0000006281-26-000073; Microchip 10-K 0000827054-26-000016 and 10-Q 0000827054-26-000038; NXP 10-K 0001413447-26-000008 and 10-Q 0001413447-26-000045; ON Semiconductor 10-K 0001097864-26-000006 and 10-Q 0001097864-26-000017; STMicroelectronics 20-F 0000932787-26-000009 and 6-K 0000932787-26-000052.
Company statements outside SEC filings. Earnings call transcripts of 21 October 2025, 27 January 2026, 22 April 2026 and 22 July 2026 and capital management call of 24 February 2026, from company investor site. Infineon and Renesas figures from company reports.
