November 4, 2026·34 min read
Shopify Inc. (SHOP), Financial Analysis
Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.
Revenues Q3 2026
$3.74bn
+31.6% year on year (Q3 2025 $2.84bn)
Cost of revenues and operating expenses Q3 2026
$3.17bn
+26.9% year on year (Q3 2025 $2.50bn)
Operating margin Q3 2026
15.2%
+3.1 pts year on year (Q3 2025 12.1%)
Key findings
- Q3 2026 revenue $3.74bn, +31.6% year on year; GMV $119.1bn, +29.5% (+30% at constant currency); operating income $568m, +65.6%, a 15.2% margin against 12.1%.
- Merchant solutions and Shopify Payments: merchant solutions $2.91bn, +35.5%; GMV on Shopify Payments $81.4bn, +35.2%, 68% of GMV against 65%. Subscription solutions $836m, +19.6%; MRR $230m, +19.2%.
- Operating expenses 32.4% of revenue against 36.8%; subscription gross margin 79.1% against 81.7% after $40m of higher infrastructure costs incl. LLM usage (10-Q).
- Free cash flow $816m, 21.8% margin against 17.8%. From April 2026 merchant cash advance flows moved from operating to investing cash flow ($30m net use in Q3 2026), so TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow combine two presentations.
- Net income $462m incl. a $138m loss on equity investments; diluted EPS $0.36, non GAAP $0.49. Buybacks of $2.48bn in 9M 2026 (21.1m shares at $117.09); no debt; cash and marketable securities $5.25bn.
- Shares $141.39 on 4 Nov 2026, (8.7%) on results day; 86.7x TTM EPS of $1.63. Q4 2026 outlook: revenue growth in the low thirties %, opex 29% to 30% of revenue. Scenario values for TTM Q3 2029: base $136, best $252, worst $50.
Figures are read from the Forms 10-K for FY2024 and FY2025 (with the 10-K/A of 29 Apr 2026), the FY2022 annual report on Form 40F for FY2021 comparatives, the Forms 10-Q for Q1 2025 to Q3 2026, the Forms 8-K with all their exhibits, incl. the quarterly earnings releases (Ex 99.1) with the CFO commentary and management statements they contain, the Black Friday Cyber Monday release, the buyback release, the management information circular of Apr 2026 and the Item 5.07 vote results of Jun 2026, Schedules 13G and Form 144 notices on the record for central index key 1594805, together with the Forms 10-Q, 10-K, 8-K and 6-K of Amazon, MercadoLibre, eBay, Wix, Commerce.com, PayPal, Block and Affirm. Shopify reports in US dollars under US GAAP and describes itself as a foreign private issuer. Accession numbers appear in the Sources appendix. Market prices are the last trade of 4 Nov 2026 before the open ($141.39).
1 Revenue & Business Model
- Storyline: GMV grows near 30% a year, Shopify Payments takes a rising share of that GMV, and operating expenses fall as a share of revenue, which lifts operating margin from 12.1% to 15.2% in a year. Chapters 2 to 4 cover the three revenue drivers: GMV and subscriptions, Shopify Payments, and international, offline and B2B commerce.
- Business model: merchants pay subscription fees (subscription solutions, $2.75bn in FY2025, 23.8% of revenue) and fees tied to their sales volume (merchant solutions, $8.80bn, 76.2%), mainly Shopify Payments, plus lending (Shopify Capital), referral fees, shipping labels, POS hardware and advertising. One reportable segment (10-K FY2025).
- Revenue FY2021 $4.61bn to FY2025 $11.56bn, a 25.8% CAGR; GMV $175.4bn to $378.4bn; TTM Q3 2026 revenue $14.17bn. Revenue equalled 3.14% of GMV in Q3 2026.
- Regions FY2025 (merchant billing address): United States $7.33bn (63.4%), EMEA $2.43bn (21.0%, +42.1%), APAC $1.13bn, Canada $567m, Latin America $104m. The 2026 Forms 10-Q regroup regions into Europe, Asia Pacific and Rest of World.
- Merchants and scale: at 31 Dec 2025 merchants were 44% in the US, 31% in EMEA, 16% in APAC, 5% in Canada and 5% in Latin America; more than 21,000 apps; about 7,600 employees; most GMV comes from Shopify Plus and enterprise merchants (10-K FY2025).
- Filer status: Shopify, based in Ottawa, files Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K by choice as a foreign private issuer; FY2024 was its first Form 10-K. Class A shares trade on Nasdaq and the TSX.
Table 1.1 Operating metrics, last five quarters
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMV ($bn) | 92.0 | 123.8 | 100.7 | 115.6 | 119.1 |
| GMV growth year on year (%) | 32 | 31 | 35 | 32 | 29 |
| GMV processed on Shopify Payments ($bn) | 60.2 | 83.8 | 67.1 | 78.1 | 81.4 |
| Shopify Payments penetration of GMV (%) | 65 | 67.7 | 67 | 68 | 68 |
| MRR, period end ($m) | 193 | 205 | 212 | 221 | 230 |
| Revenue as % of GMV | 3.09 | 2.97 | 3.15 | 3.10 | 3.14 |
GMV, MRR and Payments penetration as stated in the earnings releases and Forms 10-Q. Q4 2025 penetration is derived from the annual and nine month Payments GMV in the Form 10-K. Revenue as % of GMV is computed.
Table 1.2 Revenue and gross margin by type, last five quarters
| Line | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription solutions revenue ($m) | 699 | 777 | 750 | 802 | 836 |
| Merchant solutions revenue ($m) | 2,145 | 2,895 | 2,420 | 2,781 | 2,906 |
| Subscription solutions gross margin (%) | 81.7 | 81.0 | 80.3 | 79.7 | 79.1 |
| Merchant solutions gross margin (%) | 38.2 | 36.8 | 39.0 | 38.4 | 38.5 |
Gross margin by type uses cost of revenues by type as presented in the income statement. Q4 2025 equals FY2025 less 9M 2025.
2 GMV and Subscriptions: $119bn GMV and MRR Up 19%
- GMV $119.1bn in Q3 2026, +29.5% (+30% constant currency); growth of 31% to 35% in each of the four prior quarters; FY2025 GMV $378.4bn, +29.5%.
- Subscription solutions $836m, +19.6%; MRR $230m, +19.2%, against +10.3% in Q3 2025, when the extension of paid trials from one to three months lowered MRR growth.
- Subscription gross margin 79.1%, down from 81.7%, with $40m of higher infrastructure costs incl. LLM usage (10-Q). Subscription solutions were 22.3% of revenue against 24.6%.
- Seasonal peak: Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 merchant sales $14.6bn, +27% (+24% constant currency), from more than 81m buyers (8-K, 2 Dec 2025).
How commerce platforms are changing
- Share of US ecommerce: Shopify estimates its merchants held more than 14% of US ecommerce in 2025, based on US GMV excluding POS (8-K Ex 99.1, 11 Feb 2026).
- AI and agent checkout: the FY2025 release names Catalog, Sidekick and the Universal Commerce Protocol as AI investments; the FY2025 Form 10-K adds Agentic Storefronts and a risk factor on turning its agentic commerce vision into products merchants adopt.
- Website builders: Wix grew revenue 15% in Q2 2026 with growth led by its Base44 AI app builder (6-K, 4 Aug 2026); Commerce.com revenue rose 0.1% in Q2 2026 while its GMV rose 14% (8-K, 6 Aug 2026).
- Marketplaces: Amazon third party seller services $46.5bn in Q3 2026 (+9.4%) and online stores $68.5bn (+1.6%); eBay GMV $23.2bn (+15.0%); MercadoLibre GMV $21.9bn in Q2 2026 (+43.7%).
Table 2.1 Commerce platforms and marketplaces compared, latest filed quarter
| Company | Metric | Period | Value | Growth (%) | Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopify | GMV | Q3 2026 | $119.1bn | +29.5 | 15.2 |
| Shopify | MRR, period end | Q3 2026 | $230m | +19.2 | n/a |
| MercadoLibre | Gross merchandise volume | Q2 2026 | $21.9bn | +43.7 | 6.7 |
| eBay | Gross merchandise volume | Q3 2026 | $23.2bn | +15.0 | 19.2 |
| Commerce.com | Gross merchandise volume | Q2 2026 | $8.80bn | +14.0 | 9.6 |
| Wix | Total revenue | Q2 2026 | $563m | +15.0 | n/a |
| Amazon | Third party seller services revenue | Q3 2026 | $46.5bn | +9.4 | n/a |
Growth year on year. MercadoLibre, Wix and Commerce.com had filed Q2 2026 as their latest quarter by 4 Nov 2026. Margin: Shopify operating margin; MercadoLibre and eBay GAAP operating margin; Commerce.com non GAAP operating margin.
3 Shopify Payments: 68% of GMV and Merchant Solutions Up 35%
- GMV processed on Shopify Payments $81.4bn in Q3 2026, +35.2%, 68% of GMV against 65% a year earlier; annual penetration rose from 48.9% in FY2021 to 65.6% in FY2025.
- Merchant solutions $2.91bn, +35.5%, 77.7% of revenue; Shopify Payments revenue up $619m (10-Q); merchant solutions gross margin 38.5% against 38.2%.
- FY2025 (8-K, 11 Feb 2026): Gross Payments Volume +37%; Shop Pay GMV +62%. Shop Pay was used on 32% of Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 orders.
- Losses: transaction and loan losses $120m in Q3 2026 against $148m, with Payments losses $41m lower and lending losses $14m higher (10-Q).
How merchant payments are changing
- Volume growth by provider, Q3 2026: Shopify Payments GMV +35.2%; Block Square gross payment volume $76.4bn, +13.7%; PayPal total payment volume $487.1bn, +6%, with transaction margin dollars $3.95bn, +2% (Forms 8-K).
- Checkout wallets: Shop Pay GMV rose 62% in FY2025 and Shop Pay sales rose 39% over Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 (Shopify Forms 8-K).
- Lending rules: from April 2026 Shopify Capital in Canada moved from merchant cash advances to loans after Canadian regulatory changes (10-Q Q1 2026).
- Buy now, pay later: Affirm revenue $4.26bn in its fiscal year to Jun 2026, +32.1%; Shopify holds an Affirm stake worth $1.41bn and offers Shop Pay Installments with Affirm.
Table 3.1 Payment providers compared, latest filed quarter
| Company | Metric | Period | Value | Growth (%) | Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopify | GMV processed on Shopify Payments | Q3 2026 | $81.4bn | +35.2 | n/a |
| Shopify | Merchant solutions revenue | Q3 2026 | $2.91bn | +35.5 | 38.5 |
| PayPal | Total payment volume | Q3 2026 | $487.1bn | +6.0 | n/a |
| Block | Square GPV | Q3 2026 | $76.4bn | +13.7 | n/a |
| Wix | Transaction revenue | Q2 2026 | $71.5m | +12.0 | 32.0 |
| Amazon | Third party seller services revenue | Q3 2026 | $46.5bn | +9.4 | n/a |
Growth year on year. Wix latest filed quarter Q2 2026; its margin is Business Solutions gross margin. Shopify margin is merchant solutions gross margin. Amazon discloses no payment volume.
4 International, Offline and B2B: Revenue Outside North America Up 30%
- Revenue outside North America $1.20bn in Q3 2026, +29.7%, 32.0% of revenue against 32.5%; Europe $766m (+29.4%), Asia Pacific $362m (+28.4%), Rest of World $69m (+40.8%).
- United States $2.37bn, +33.1%, 63.4% of revenue; Canada $172m, +24.6%.
- FY2025 channel growth (8-K, 11 Feb 2026): international revenue +36%, offline revenue +27% (offline Payments, POS Pro, Retail plans and hardware), B2B GMV +96%; the release describes B2B as a very small part of GMV, available to Plus merchants only.
- Disclosure: offline and B2B growth rates appear in the annual results release; quarterly regional figures are revenue by merchant billing address.
How cross border and offline commerce is changing
- Cross border orders were 16% of Shopify global orders over Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025; top selling countries were the US, UK, Australia, Germany and Canada (8-K, 2 Dec 2025).
- Point of sale peers: Block international Square gross payment volume +26% in Q3 2026, 23% of Square volume against 21% a year earlier (8-K, 3 Nov 2026).
- Marketplaces and wallets abroad: Amazon International segment net sales $43.1bn, +5.4%, 3.7% operating margin; PayPal international net revenues $3.58bn, (2%); MercadoLibre GMV +43.7% in Q2 2026.
- Tariffs: Shopify cites tariffs and trade measures as a risk to consumer spending in the US and Europe (8-K, 2 Jun 2026).
Table 4.1 International results compared, latest filed quarter
| Company | Metric | Period | Value | Growth (%) | Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopify | Revenue outside North America | Q3 2026 | $1.20bn | +29.7 | n/a |
| Amazon | International segment net sales | Q3 2026 | $43.1bn | +5.4 | 3.7 |
| Block | Square international GPV growth | Q3 2026 | 26% growth | +26.0 | n/a |
| PayPal | International net revenues | Q3 2026 | $3.58bn | (2.0) | n/a |
| MercadoLibre | Gross merchandise volume (Latin America) | Q2 2026 | $21.9bn | +43.7 | 6.7 |
| Commerce.com | EMEA revenue growth | Q2 2026 | 12% growth | +12.0 | n/a |
Growth year on year; each company's own definition of international. Commerce.com and MercadoLibre latest filed quarter Q2 2026. Amazon margin is International segment operating margin.
Table 4.2 Shopify revenue by merchant region, last five quarters ($m)
| Region | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Change year on year (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1,783 | 2,345 | 2,001 | 2,283 | 2,373 | +33.1 |
| Canada | 138 | 177 | 147 | 171 | 172 | +24.6 |
| Europe | 592 | n/a | 653 | 721 | 766 | +29.4 |
| Asia Pacific | 282 | 341 | 312 | 346 | 362 | +28.4 |
| Rest of World | 49 | n/a | 57 | 62 | 69 | +40.8 |
Regions as in the 2026 Forms 10-Q, with Middle East and Africa in Rest of World. Q4 2025 Europe and Rest of World cannot be derived on the new basis; together they were $809m.
5 Financial Analysis & Ratios
- Operating margin 15.2% in Q3 2026 and 14.6% TTM, against 12.7% in FY2025, 12.1% in FY2024 and (20.1%) in FY2023, which included a $1.34bn impairment on the sale of the logistics businesses to Flexport.
- Net income TTM $2.13bn, 15.0% of revenue, incl. gains and losses on equity investments; quarterly marks ranged from ($1.08bn) in Q1 2026 to +$1.23bn in Q2 2026. Non GAAP EPS TTM $1.75 against GAAP $1.63.
- Free cash flow TTM $2.66bn, 18.8% of revenue, against $2.01bn (17.4%) in FY2025. From April 2026 merchant cash advance flows moved from operating to investing cash flow; merchant cash advances used $141m of operating cash in FY2025 and $82m in FY2024. TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow therefore combine two presentations.
- Balance sheet at 30 Sep 2026: cash and marketable securities $5.25bn incl. long term securities; no debt since the $920m convertible notes were settled in cash on 1 Nov 2025; equity and other investments $4.91bn (Affirm $1.41bn, Global E $879m, Klaviyo $292m) and the Flexport equity method stake $538m; loans and merchant cash advances $2.35bn.
- Capital returns: first buyback program in Feb 2026 ($2bn), raised to $5bn in Jun 2026; cash paid for repurchases TTM $2.47bn, 93% of TTM free cash flow; $2.52bn of authorization left at 30 Sep 2026; no dividend.
Table 5.1 Income statement, cash flow and balance sheet summary ($bn unless stated)
| Line item | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.6 | 5.6 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 14.2 |
| Gross profit | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 6.7 |
| Research and development | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Selling, general and administrative | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Operating income | 0.3 | (0.8) | (1.4) | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Net income | 2.9 | (3.5) | 0.1 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 2.29 | (2.73) | 0.10 | 1.55 | 0.94 | 1.63 |
| Operating cash flow | 0.5 | (0.1) | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Capital expenditure | (0.1) | (0.1) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow | 0.5 | (0.2) | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Stock based compensation | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Cash and investments | 7.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 5.3 |
| Total debt | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total equity | 11.1 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 13.5 | 12.7 |
Free cash flow is operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment (company definition). TTM equals Q4 2025 (FY2025 less 9M 2025) plus 9M 2026. FY2021 figures come from the FY2022 annual report on Form 40F. Cash and investments include long term marketable securities and exclude equity investments.
Table 5.2 What changed, Q3 2026 against Q3 2025
| Metric | Q3 2025 | Q3 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($bn) | 2.84 | 3.74 | 31.6% |
| Gross profit ($bn) | 1.39 | 1.78 | 28.0% |
| Operating income ($bn) | 0.34 | 0.57 | 65.6% |
| Net income ($bn) | 0.26 | 0.46 | 75.0% |
| Diluted EPS ($) | 0.20 | 0.36 | 80.0% |
| Operating cash flow ($bn) | 0.51 | 0.82 | 59.5% |
| Free cash flow ($bn) | 0.51 | 0.82 | 60.9% |
| Operating margin (%) | 12.1 | 15.2 | 3.1 pts |
| Net margin (%) | 9.3 | 12.3 | 3.1 pts |
Table 5.3 Ratio analysis
| Ratio | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth and margins | ||||||
| Revenue growth (%) | n/a | 21.4 | 26.1 | 25.8 | 30.1 | n/a |
| Gross margin (%) | 53.8 | 49.2 | 49.8 | 50.4 | 48.1 | 47.5 |
| Operating margin (%) | 5.8 | (14.7) | (20.1) | 12.1 | 12.7 | 14.6 |
| Net margin (%) | 63.2 | (61.8) | 1.9 | 22.7 | 10.7 | 15.0 |
| FCF margin (%) | 10.5 | (3.3) | 12.8 | 18.0 | 17.4 | 18.8 |
| Cost and investment intensity | ||||||
| R&D (%) revenue | 18.5 | 26.8 | 24.5 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 12.5 |
| SBC (%) revenue | 7.2 | 9.8 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| Capex (%) revenue | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Effective tax rate (%) | 7.2 | n/a | 28.6 | 9.4 | 18.4 | 16.0 |
| Returns | ||||||
| ROE (%) | 26.2 | (35.7) | 1.5 | 19.6 | 9.8 | 16.7 |
| ROA (%) | 21.9 | (28.7) | 1.2 | 16.0 | 8.5 | 14.5 |
| ROIC (%) | 5.8 | (16.4) | (20.8) | 15.5 | 17.8 | 23.2 |
| Asset turnover (x) | 0.35 | 0.52 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.76 | 0.97 |
| Liquidity and leverage | ||||||
| Current ratio (x) | 12.15 | 7.07 | 6.99 | 3.71 | 5.96 | 4.86 |
| Debt to equity (x) | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Net cash ($bn) | 6.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 5.3 |
| Efficiency and cash quality | ||||||
| Days sales outstanding | 15 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| FCF to net income (x) | 0.17 | n/a | 6.86 | 0.79 | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| Shareholder returns (%) FCF | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | 93 |
ROE and ROA use average balances for fiscal years and 30 Sep 2026 balances for TTM. Net income, ROE and FCF to net income move with gains and losses on equity investments. TTM operating cash flow and free cash flow include two quarters with merchant cash advance flows in investing activities.
Table 5.4 Valuation snapshot at $141.39 per share, 4 Nov 2026
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Market cap ($bn) | 181.9 |
| Enterprise value ($bn) | 176.6 |
| P/E (TTM) (x) | 86.7 |
| EV/Sales (TTM) (x) | 12.5 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) (x) | 84.2 |
| FCF yield (%) | 1.5 |
| Price/Book (x) | 14.3 |
Cost structure and profitability
- Cost of revenues 52.4% of Q3 2026 revenue against 51.1%; cost of revenues rose 35.0% against revenue growth of 31.6%, as merchant solutions (gross margin 38.5%) grew faster than subscription solutions (79.1%).
- Operating expenses $1.21bn, +15.7%, 32.4% of revenue against 36.8%: sales and marketing $466m (+13.7%), R&D $497m (+32.5%), general and administrative $130m (+13.0%).
- Transaction and loan losses $120m, 3.2% of revenue against $148m (5.2%).
- Stock based compensation incl. payroll tax $147m, 3.9% of revenue; capex $2m; depreciation and amortization $28m TTM.
- Free cash flow $816m and buybacks $562m in Q3 2026; buybacks peaked at $1.42bn in Q2 2026.
Table 5.5 Costs as % of revenue, last five quarters
| Line | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of revenues (% of revenue) | 51.1 | 53.9 | 51.2 | 52.3 | 52.4 |
| Sales and marketing (% of revenue) | 14.4 | 11.8 | 15.6 | 13.9 | 12.5 |
| Research and development (% of revenue) | 13.2 | 10.6 | 13.8 | 12.4 | 13.3 |
| General and administrative (% of revenue) | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
| Transaction and loan losses (% of revenue) | 5.2 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| Total operating expenses (% of revenue) | 36.8 | 28.9 | 36.7 | 34.0 | 32.4 |
| Stock based compensation incl. payroll tax (% of revenue) | 4.1 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| Operating income (% of revenue) | 12.1 | 17.2 | 12.1 | 13.6 | 15.2 |
6 MD&A & Management Commentary
Q3 2026 results release and Form 10-Q
- Q3 2026 against the company's own outlook (8-K of 5 Aug 2026): revenue +31.6% against low thirties; gross profit +28.0% against mid to high twenties; operating expenses 32.4% of revenue against 33% to 34%; free cash flow margin 21.8% against high teens to low twenties.
- Revenue lines (10-Q MD&A): subscription solutions $836m, with subscription fees up $125m; merchant solutions $2.91bn, with Shopify Payments revenue up $619m; GMV processed on Shopify Payments $81.4bn, +35.2%.
- Costs (10-Q): cost of subscription solutions +37% on $40m of higher infrastructure costs incl. LLM usage; R&D +32.5% with $62m higher employee costs and $40m higher hardware and software costs incl. AI usage; sales and marketing +13.7%; transaction and loan losses $120m against $148m, with Payments losses $41m lower and lending losses $14m higher.
- Below operating income: net loss on equity and equity method investments $138m, incl. a $126m unrealized loss on listed stakes; interest income $65m against $81m; tax expense $37m after a $63m release of a US valuation allowance.
- Cash and capital (10-Q): cash, equivalents and current marketable securities $4.7bn against $5.8bn at 31 Dec 2025 after $2.5bn of buybacks in 9M 2026; net purchases of loans and merchant cash advances $702m in 9M 2026; $99m purchase of intangible assets in Q3 2026; new Canadian base shelf prospectus and US Form S-3 shelf filed 3 Nov 2026.
- Presentation change: from April 2026 merchant cash advance flows moved from operating to investing cash flow after Shopify Capital in Canada moved from merchant cash advances to loans; in Q3 2026 this moved a $30m net use of cash into investing activities. Prior periods are shown as originally reported.
Table 6.1 Company outlook issued from Nov 2025 to Nov 2026, as filed in the Forms 8-K (Ex 99.1)
| Item | Outlook | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | Revenue growth mid to high twenties %; opex 30% to 31% of revenue; SBC $130m. Actual: revenue +30.6%, opex 28.9% | 8-K Ex 99.1, 4 Nov 2025 |
| Q1 2026 | Revenue growth low thirties %; opex 37% to 38% of revenue; free cash flow margin low to mid teens. Actual: revenue +34.3%, opex 36.7%, free cash flow margin 15.0% | 8-K Ex 99.1, 11 Feb 2026 |
| Q2 2026 | Revenue growth high twenties %; opex 35% to 36% of revenue; SBC $145m. Actual: revenue +33.7%, opex 34.0% | 8-K Ex 99.1, 5 May 2026 |
| Q3 2026 | Revenue growth low thirties %; gross profit growth mid to high twenties %; opex 33% to 34%; SBC $150m; free cash flow margin high teens to low twenties. Actual: revenue +31.6%, gross profit +28.0%, opex 32.4%, free cash flow margin 21.8% | 8-K Ex 99.1, 5 Aug 2026 |
| Q4 2026 revenue and gross profit | Revenue growth low thirties % (Q4 2025 base $3.67bn); gross profit growth high twenties % (base $1.69bn) | 8-K Ex 99.1, 3 Nov 2026 |
| Q4 2026 costs and cash | Opex 29% to 30% of revenue (Q4 2025: 28.9%); SBC $155m; free cash flow margin consistent with Q4 2025 (19.5%) | 8-K Ex 99.1, 3 Nov 2026 |
Management and CFO commentary
- CFO Jeff Hoffmeister, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 3 Nov 2026: 32% revenue growth and a 22% free cash flow margin in Q3 2026, described as an extension of a track record of consistent execution.
- President Harley Finkelstein, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 3 Nov 2026: $119bn of GMV in Q3 2026; Shopify is building commerce into every surface and agent.
- CFO, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 5 Aug 2026: GMV growth accelerated on Q2 2025 across merchant sizes, channels and geographies; operating leverage lifted the free cash flow margin to 18%.
- CFO, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 2 Jun 2026: $3bn added to the buyback for $5bn in total, citing operating cash flow and the balance sheet.
- CFO, 8-K Ex 99.1 of 11 Feb 2026: FY2025 revenue growth of 30% with a 17% free cash flow margin; Catalog, Sidekick and the Universal Commerce Protocol named as AI investments.
Table 6.2 Management statements in their own words
| Speaker | Date and source | Statement |
|---|---|---|
| Harley Finkelstein, President | 11 Feb 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “2026 will be the year of the builders” |
| Jeff Hoffmeister, CFO | 5 May 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “That is the platform compounding.” |
| Jeff Hoffmeister, CFO | 3 Nov 2026, 8-K Ex 99.1 | “We extended our track record of consistent execution” |
Table 6.3 Key disclosures in the Forms 10-Q and 10-K
| Item | Disclosure |
|---|---|
| 10-Q Q3 2026, regions | Revenue United States $2.37bn (+33.1%), Europe $766m (+29.4%), Asia Pacific $362m (+28.4%), Canada $172m (+24.6%), Rest of World $69m (+40.8%). |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, liquidity | Working capital excluding current deferred revenue $6.5bn; $2.52bn of buyback authorization left; 21.1m shares repurchased in 9M 2026 at an average of $117.09. |
| 10-Q Q3 2026, risk factors | No material change from the FY2025 Form 10-K. |
| 10-K FY2025, products | AI features named: Sidekick and Agentic Storefronts, which support agent assisted product discovery and checkout across AI platforms. |
| 10-K FY2025, payment processors | Shopify Payments relies on Stripe and PayPal; both agreements renew every 12 months. |
| 10-K FY2025, market risk | A large share of revenue is in euro, pound sterling and Canadian dollar; equity price risk from the Affirm, Global E and Klaviyo stakes. |
| 10-K FY2025, commitments | Unconditional purchase obligations for third party services with a $200m annual minimum; $251m remaining over two years at 31 Dec 2025. |
| 10-K FY2025, legal | No material pending litigation; the Express Mobile patent appeal was dismissed in 2025 with no infringement affirmed. |
7 Sector & Competitor Analysis
- Sector: commerce software and merchant payments. Shopify TTM revenue $14.17bn against Amazon $797.5bn, MercadoLibre $35.18bn, PayPal $34.3bn, Affirm $4.26bn and Wix $2.13bn.
- Growth: SHOP +31.6% in Q3 2026 against MELI +49.8% and WIX +14.9% (Q2 2026), AFRM +32.1% (fiscal year to Jun 2026), AMZN +12.1% and PYPL +2.0%.
- Margins: SHOP TTM operating margin 14.6% against PYPL 17.0%, AMZN 13.1%, AFRM 9.8%, MELI 8.3% and WIX (9.8%); free cash flow margin 18.8% against PYPL 18.4% and WIX 19.2%.
- Valuation: SHOP 86.7x TTM P/E and 12.5x EV/Sales against MELI 45.2x and 2.5x, AMZN 20.1x and 3.5x, AFRM 12.8x, PYPL 11.1x and 1.4x.
- Balance sheet: SHOP net cash $5.25bn and no debt; PYPL net cash $1.6bn; AMZN net debt $66.1bn; MELI net debt $3.2bn.
Table 7.1 Peer comparison, latest reported trailing twelve months
| Company | Revenue TTM ($bn) | Revenue growth (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) | Net margin (%) | FCF margin (%) | ROE (%) | Net cash ($bn) | Market value ($bn) | EV/Sales (x) | P/E TTM (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOP | 14.2 | 31.6 | 47.5 | 14.6 | 15.0 | 18.8 | 16.7 | 5.3 | 182 | 12.5 | 86.7 |
| AMZN | 797.5 | 12.1 | 51.4 | 13.1 | 16.9 | (5.3) | 26.3 | (66.1) | 2,711 | 3.5 | 20.1 |
| MELI | 35.2 | 49.8 | 42.7 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 35.3 | 27.5 | (3.2) | 84 | 2.5 | 45.2 |
| WIX | 2.1 | 14.9 | 66.6 | (9.8) | (8.2) | 19.2 | n/a | (0.2) | 3 | 1.6 | n/a |
| PYPL | 34.3 | 2.0 | 45.8 | 17.0 | 13.8 | 18.4 | 23.8 | 1.6 | 48 | 1.4 | 11.1 |
| AFRM | 4.3 | 32.1 | n/a | 9.8 | 45.3 | 23.3 | 45.1 | n/a | 25 | n/a | 12.8 |
SHOP TTM Q4 2025 to Q3 2026, growth Q3 2026 year on year, valued at $141.39 (4 Nov 2026). AMZN and PYPL TTM to Sep 2026. MELI and WIX TTM to Jun 2026 (Q2 2026 is their latest filed quarter), growth Q2 2026. AFRM fiscal year to Jun 2026; its net income includes a $1.44bn tax benefit. MELI free cash flow includes fintech funding flows. PYPL gross margin is transaction margin. WIX ROE and P/E not meaningful (shareholders' deficiency, net loss). Market values at 3 to 4 Nov 2026; AFRM at 30 Oct 2026.
8 Material Events & Contracts
- Ten Forms 8-K in twelve months: five earnings releases, the Black Friday Cyber Monday release, the management information circular, the buyback increase, the annual meeting results and one director resignation. No Form 8-K/A was filed.
- Capital program: the first share repurchase program ($2bn, Feb 2026) was raised to $5bn on 2 Jun 2026; purchases are capped at 5% of Class A shares.
- Notes repaid: the $920m convertible senior notes matured and were settled in cash on 1 Nov 2025, with a $123m realized loss on the embedded derivative in Q4 2025.
Table 8.1 Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
| Date | Items | Event |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q3 2026 results (Ex 99.1): revenue $3.74bn (+31.6%), GMV $119.1bn, operating income $568m, net income $462m, free cash flow $816m (21.8% margin); Q4 2026 outlook revenue growth in the low thirties %, opex 29% to 30% of revenue. |
| 5 Aug 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q2 2026 results (Ex 99.1): revenue $3.58bn (+33.7%), GMV $115.6bn, operating income $488m, net income $1.50bn incl. $1.23bn of equity investment gains, free cash flow $654m. |
| 2 Jul 2026 | 5.02, 9.01 | Audit Committee chair resigned from the board to join the US Department of Commerce; Joe Natale expected to chair the Audit Committee. Exhibit 104 (cover page data) only. |
| 16 Jun 2026 | 5.07, 8.01, 9.01 | Annual meeting: ten directors elected (90.45% to 99.77%), PwC reappointed (99.42%), say on pay 81.24%, shareholder AI policy proposal 13.86% for (Ex 99.1). |
| 2 Jun 2026 | 7.01, 9.01 | Board added $3bn to the repurchase program, $5bn in total; about $1.45bn bought back by 1 Jun 2026; purchases capped at 5% of Class A shares (Ex 99.1). |
| 8 May 2026 | 8.01, 9.01 | Management information circular for the 16 Jun 2026 meeting (Ex 99.1): ten nominees, CEO 2025 pay $35.0m in options, Lütke voting power 40.0%. |
| 5 May 2026 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q1 2026 results (Ex 99.1): revenue $3.17bn (+34.3%), GMV $100.7bn, operating income $382m, net loss $581m after $1.08bn of equity investment losses, free cash flow $476m. |
| 11 Feb 2026 | 2.02, 7.01, 9.01 | Q4 and FY2025 results (Ex 99.1): FY2025 revenue $11.56bn (+30.1%), GMV $378.4bn, free cash flow $2.01bn; first share repurchase program of up to $2bn. |
| 2 Dec 2025 | 8.01, 9.01 | Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 (Ex 99.1): merchant sales $14.6bn (+27%, +24% constant currency), 81m+ buyers, cross border orders 16%, Shop Pay sales +39%. |
| 4 Nov 2025 | 2.02, 9.01 | Q3 2025 results (Ex 99.1): revenue $2.84bn (+31.5%), GMV $92.0bn, operating income $343m, free cash flow $507m (18% margin). |
Table 8.2 Material contracts and financing arrangements
| Contract | Terms |
|---|---|
| Payment processing agreements | Shopify Payments uses Stripe and PayPal as payment service providers; both agreements renew every 12 months (10-K FY2025). |
| Share repurchase program | $5bn authorization ($2bn Feb 2026, $3bn added Jun 2026); $2.48bn used in 9M 2026; $2.52bn left at 30 Sep 2026. |
| Revolving credit facility | $100m facility with RBC, undrawn. |
| Purchase obligations | Third party services with a $200m annual minimum; $251m remaining over the next two years at 31 Dec 2025. |
| Flexport | Equity method stake $538m and Flexport convertible notes at $351m fair value (30 Sep 2026); Shopify retains guarantees on leases assigned in the 2023 logistics sale. |
| Klaviyo option | Option on 15.7m Klaviyo shares at $88.93 per share, expiring Jul 2030. |
| Shelf registrations | New Canadian base shelf prospectus and US Form S-3 shelf filed 3 Nov 2026. |
9 Ownership, Voting Power & Annual Meeting
- Tobias Lütke holds 40.02% of total voting power through 77,750,132 Class B shares (10 votes each), the founder share and 1,548,000 Class A shares held by 7910240 Canada Inc. and Thistledown Foundation, against under 7% of shares outstanding (circular, 21 Apr 2026). BlackRock reported 5.1% of Class A at 30 Jun 2026 (Schedule 13G).
- Annual meeting of 16 Jun 2026: ten directors elected, Joe Natale with the lowest support at 90.45% and Fidji Simo at 96.66%; say on pay 81.24%; PwC 99.42%; a shareholder proposal for a responsible AI policy received 13.86%. Percentages are of voting power, incl. Lütke's 40.02%.
- Insider filings: as a foreign private issuer Shopify's insiders file no Form 4. From Nov 2025 to Oct 2026, 45 Form 144 notices of planned sales were filed by 9 people; no open market purchases appear in EDGAR filings.
- CEO planned sales: Lütke's Form 144 notices list gross proceeds of about $164.1m on about 1.30m shares from Dec 2025 to Sep 2026 ($11.8m to 16 Dec 2025, $73.7m from 18 Mar to 3 Jun 2026, $78.6m from 10 Jun to 2 Sep 2026), under a prearranged trading plan adopted 8 Dec 2025. The 4 Sep 2026 notice covers up to 550,500 further shares ($81.1m at $147.37).
- CEO pay: Lütke's 2025 total compensation was $35.0m, all in options, against $150.0m in 2024; CFO Jeff Hoffmeister $10.5m, COO Jessica Hertz $12.0m, President Harley Finkelstein $7.5m (circular).
Table 9.1 Annual meeting vote results, 16 Jun 2026
| Proposal | For (bn votes) | Against (bn votes) | Abstain (bn votes) | For as % of votes cast | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elect Tobias Lütke | 1.657 | 0.039 | 0.000 | 97.7 | Elected |
| Elect Lulu Cheng Meservey | 1.691 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 99.7 | Elected |
| Elect Jeanne DeWitt Grosser | 1.684 | 0.012 | 0.000 | 99.3 | Elected |
| Elect David Heinemeier Hansson | 1.691 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 99.7 | Elected |
| Elect Jeremy Levine | 1.666 | 0.030 | 0.000 | 98.2 | Elected |
| Elect Audit Committee chair (resigned 2 Jul 2026) | 1.687 | 0.009 | 0.000 | 99.5 | Elected |
| Elect Joseph Natale | 1.534 | 0.162 | 0.000 | 90.4 | Elected |
| Elect Kevin Scott | 1.692 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 99.8 | Elected |
| Elect Toby Shannan | 1.692 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 99.8 | Elected |
| Elect Fidji Simo | 1.639 | 0.057 | 0.000 | 96.7 | Elected |
| Appoint PwC as auditors | 1.762 | 0.010 | 0.000 | 99.4 | Approved |
| Advisory vote on executive compensation | 1.378 | 0.318 | 0.000 | 81.2 | Accepted |
| Shareholder proposal on AI policy | 0.235 | 1.461 | 0.000 | 13.9 | Not approved |
Votes are voting power as filed in the Form 8-K of 16 Jun 2026; for the auditor, the against column shows votes withheld. Broker non votes 76.3m on each item except the auditor.
2026 annual meeting and board changes
- Meeting of 16 Jun 2026: held virtually; results filed under Item 5.07 with a results release as Ex 99.1.
- Board: ten nominees incl. new director Jeanne DeWitt Grosser; Gail Goodman retired after nine years. The circular names Lütke as chair and Natale as lead independent director.
- Audit Committee: its chair resigned on 2 Jul 2026 to join the US Department of Commerce; Natale is expected to chair the committee.
Table 9.2 Voting power and largest holders
| Holder | Shares | Share of votes or class (%) | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Lütke (CEO, founder) and 7910240 Canada Inc. | 1,548,000 Class A, 77,750,132 Class B, founder share | 40.02 of votes | 21 Apr 2026 (circular) |
| BlackRock, Inc. | 61,634,523 Class A | 5.1 of Class A | 30 Jun 2026 (Schedule 13G) |
| Baillie Gifford & Co | 59,773,997 Class A | 4.9 of Class A | 31 Dec 2024 (Schedule 13G/A) |
Class B shares carry 10 votes each and convert one for one into Class A. The founder share carries the votes needed to lift Lütke's voting power to at least 40%, capped at 49.9%. At 21 Apr 2026 Class A was 93.99% of shares and 59.90% of votes, Class B 6.01% of shares and 38.32% of votes, the founder share 1.78% of votes. Lütke's beneficial ownership of Class A is 2,334,822 shares incl. options and RSUs vesting within 60 days.
10 Risk Factors
- Scope: Item 1A of the FY2025 Form 10-K compared with the FY2024 Form 10-K, heading by heading and body by body; the three 2026 Forms 10-Q report no material change.
Table 10.1 Risk factors with filed figures
| Risk | Disclosure and change |
|---|---|
| Payment processors | Shopify Payments depends on Stripe and PayPal; agreements renew every 12 months. Shopify Payments processed $81.4bn, 68% of GMV, in Q3 2026. |
| AI and agentic commerce | New wording on translating Shopify's agentic commerce vision into products; reliance on third party foundational AI models; AI named 29 times across 8 factors against 23 across 5. Subscription gross margin fell to 79.1% from 81.7% with higher LLM costs. |
| Equity investments | Affirm $1.41bn, Global E $879m and Klaviyo $292m at 30 Sep 2026; quarterly marks ranged from ($1.08bn) to +$1.23bn in 2026. |
| Lending and merchant cash advances | Loans and merchant cash advances $2.35bn at 30 Sep 2026; transaction and loan losses $491m TTM, 3.5% of revenue. |
| Foreign exchange and tariffs | Euro, pound sterling and Canadian dollar exposure named; tariffs cited among macro risks to consumer spending in the US and Europe. |
| Dual class control | Lütke holds 40.02% of votes through Class B shares and the founder share (circular, Apr 2026). |
| Share repurchases | New factor: the program may not be completed and may raise share price volatility; $2.52bn of authorization left. |
How risk factors changed
- Comparison: 10-K FY2025 filed 11 Feb 2026 acc 0001594805-26-000007 against 10-K FY2024 filed 11 Feb 2025 acc 0001594805-25-000012.
- AI is named 29 times across 8 risk factors in the 2025 10-K against 23 times across 5 a year earlier
- Agentic commerce appears for the first time: the platform factor now cites translating Shopify's agentic commerce vision into products merchants can adopt
- The strategic relationships factor now states that Shopify relies on third party foundational AI models and could face disruption or re engineering costs if providers stop access
- Convertible notes language is gone (two factors removed and one reference cut) and a share repurchase factor is added
- Total Item 1A length fell 4% to 21,421 words; the foreign exchange factor now names the euro and pound sterling alongside the Canadian dollar
Table 10.2 Size of the risk factor section
| Measure | 10-K FY2024 | 10-K FY2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Risk factors (count) | 50 | 48 |
| Words in Item 1A | 22,260 | 21,421 |
Table 10.3 Risk factors added, removed and materially reworded
| Change | Risk factor | What changed |
|---|---|---|
| Added | Share repurchase program may not be completed or add value | New factor on the $2bn buyback authorised in Feb 2026 (capped at 5% of Class A shares, no expiry), noting it may raise share price volatility and is not an obligation to buy |
| Removed | Dependence on continued, unimpeded internet access for commerce | Factor on laws or fees that could limit internet access or use for commerce dropped (199 words) |
| Removed | Note provisions may restrict strategy or cash settlement | Factor on the indenture and cash settlement of the convertible senior notes dropped (605 words); the Notes matured in Q4 2025, with $1.043bn of maturities in the Q4 2025 cash flow statement (8-K Ex 99.1, 11 Feb 2026) |
| Removed | Notes trading and conversion may affect share price | Factor on hedging, arbitrage and accounting for the convertible notes dropped (249 words); the Notes reference was also cut from the change of control factor |
| Reworded | Changes to browsers, operating systems or app stores | Heading and body widened from internet browsers to browsers, operating systems and application stores, adding the risk that providers change terms of service or technical requirements |
Table 10.4 Risk factor updates in quarterly reports since the annual filing
| Filing | Change disclosed |
|---|---|
| 10-Q Q1 2026 filed 5 May 2026 | No material change from the 2025 10-K; adds that current global economic and geopolitical events may amplify the risks |
| 10-Q Q2 2026 filed 5 Aug 2026 | No material change from the 2025 10-K (same wording as Q1) |
| 10-Q Q3 2026 filed 3 Nov 2026 | No material change from the 2025 10-K (same wording as Q1) |
11 Stock Price, Scenarios & Sensitivity
- SHOP traded at $141.39 before the open on 4 Nov 2026, after closing at $142.57 on 3 Nov, (8.7%) from $156.22 on the day of the Q3 2026 release; intraday low $135.65. The 52 week range is $94.00 (May 2026) to $180.88 (12 Oct 2026).
- Price path: month end close $173.86 in Oct 2025, $114.18 in Jun 2026 and $157.49 in Oct 2026; the Nov 2021 close was $152.18.
- Valuation: 86.7x TTM GAAP EPS of $1.63 (80.8x non GAAP EPS of $1.75); market value $181.9bn on 1.29bn shares; EV/Sales 12.5x TTM.
- Scenario model: revenue grows from TTM Q3 2026 $14.17bn for three years; operating margin as stated; interest income $285m a year as in the TTM; 19% tax rate; equity investment gains and losses excluded; price equals TTM Q3 2029 EPS times exit P/E.
Critical factors and core assumptions
Table 11.1 Critical factors behind the best case
| Factor | Current value | Best case requires | Evidence in filings and calls |
|---|---|---|---|
| GMV growth | +29.5% in Q3 2026 (+30% constant currency); FY2025 +29.5% | above 25% a year to 2029 | 8-K Ex 99.1 releases, Nov 2025 to Nov 2026 |
| Shopify Payments penetration | 68% of GMV in Q3 2026 against 65%; 48.9% in FY2021 | 72% or higher | 10-Q MD&A; 10-K FY2025 |
| Operating expense ratio | 32.4% of revenue in Q3 2026 against 36.8%; Q4 2026 outlook 29% to 30% | about 26% of revenue by 2029 | 10-Q Q3 2026; 8-K Ex 99.1, 3 Nov 2026 |
| Subscription gross margin and AI cost | 79.1% in Q3 2026 against 81.7% | back near 80% while AI usage grows | 10-Q Q3 2026 (infrastructure and LLM costs +$40m) |
| Merchant solutions gross margin | 38.5% in Q3 2026 against 38.2% | 38% to 39% as Payments mix rises | 10-Q income statement by type |
| AI and agentic channels | Agentic Storefronts and Universal Commerce Protocol named by the company | agent checkout routes through Shopify Payments at current take rates | 10-K FY2025 Item 1 and 1A; 8-K Ex 99.1, 11 Feb 2026 |
- Revenue base TTM Q3 2026 $14.17bn; operating income $2.07bn (14.6% margin).
- Best case: 27% revenue CAGR, 22% operating margin, 60x P/E; GMV growth near 30% and Payments penetration rising toward 72%.
- Base case: 21% revenue CAGR, 18% margin, 45x P/E; growth slows toward the high teens as the GMV base rises; opex falls 1 to 2 points of revenue a year.
- Worst case: 12% revenue CAGR, 12% margin, 30x P/E; GMV growth falls to low teens and payment take rates decline.
- Tax rate 19% (FY2025 effective 18.4%); share count 1.29bn held flat, with buybacks offsetting stock based compensation; interest income $285m a year.
Scenarios, three years forward
Table 11.2 Scenario analysis, TTM Q3 2026 to TTM Q3 2029
| Measure | Worst case | Base case | Best case |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue CAGR, 3 years (%) | 12.0 | 21.0 | 27.0 |
| Revenue, TTM Q3 2029 ($bn) | 19.9 | 25.1 | 29.0 |
| Operating margin, TTM Q3 2029 (%) | 12.0 | 18.0 | 22.0 |
| Net income, TTM Q3 2029 ($bn) | 2.2 | 3.9 | 5.4 |
| EPS, TTM Q3 2029 ($) | 1.68 | 3.02 | 4.20 |
| Exit P/E (x) | 30.0 | 45.0 | 60.0 |
| Implied price ($) | 50 | 136 | 252 |
| Change against $141.39 (%) | (64) | (4) | 78 |
| Implied annual return (%) | (29.1) | (1.3) | 21.2 |
Shopify pays no dividend. Equity investment gains and losses are excluded from scenario EPS.
Sensitivity analysis
Table 11.3 Sensitivity of implied price to revenue CAGR and operating margin at 45x P/E
| Revenue CAGR \ Operating margin | 12% | 15% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12% | $76 | $93 | $110 | $121 | $132 |
| 15% | $81 | $100 | $118 | $130 | $142 |
| 21% | $93 | $115 | $136 | $150 | $165 |
| 24% | $100 | $123 | $146 | $161 | $176 |
| 27% | $107 | $131 | $156 | $173 | $189 |
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $141.39. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below.
Table 11.4 Sensitivity of implied price to exit P/E and operating margin at 21% revenue CAGR
| Exit P/E \ Operating margin | 12% | 15% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30x | $62 | $76 | $91 | $100 | $110 |
| 38x | $79 | $97 | $115 | $127 | $139 |
| 45x | $93 | $115 | $136 | $150 | $165 |
| 52x | $108 | $133 | $157 | $174 | $190 |
| 60x | $125 | $153 | $181 | $200 | $219 |
Cells show implied share price in year 3. Current price $141.39. Blue cells sit above it, red cells below.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for information only and is not financial advice. It is derived from public SEC filings retrieved via sec-api.io and is not a publication of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Scenario values are model outputs under stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Data as of 4 November 2026.
Sources
All company figures are read from SEC filings retrieved through the sec-api.io MCP server. Management statements come from the earnings releases and other exhibits to the Forms 8-K and from the Forms 10-Q. Operating metrics given only on earnings calls are left out.
Table A.1 Filings used, with accession numbers
| Form | Period | Filed | Accession number |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | Q3 2026 | 3 Nov 2026 | 0001594805-26-000068 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q3 2026 | 3 Nov 2026 | 0001594805-26-000067 |
| 10-Q | Q2 2026 | 5 Aug 2026 | 0001594805-26-000047 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q2 2026 | 5 Aug 2026 | 0001594805-26-000046 |
| 10-Q | Q1 2026 | 5 May 2026 | 0001594805-26-000019 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q1 2026 | 5 May 2026 | 0001594805-26-000018 |
| 10-K | FY2025 | 11 Feb 2026 | 0001594805-26-000007 |
| 8-K (2.02) Ex 99.1 | Q4 2025 | 11 Feb 2026 | 0001594805-26-000006 |
| 10-K/A | FY2025 | 29 Apr 2026 | 0001594805-26-000011 |
| 10-Q | Q3 2025 | 4 Nov 2025 | 0001594805-25-000089 |
| 10-Q | Q2 2025 | 6 Aug 2025 | 0001594805-25-000073 |
| 10-Q | Q1 2025 | 8 May 2025 | 0001594805-25-000046 |
| 10-K | FY2024 | 11 Feb 2025 | 0001594805-25-000012 |
| 40F (annual report) | FY2022 | 16 Feb 2023 | 0001594805-23-000011 |
| 8-K Ex 99.1 (management information circular) | 2026 AGM | 8 May 2026 | 0001594805-26-000022 |
| 8-K (5.07) | 2026 AGM | 16 Jun 2026 | 0001594805-26-000030 |
| 8-K (7.01) Ex 99.1 | Buyback | 2 Jun 2026 | 0001594805-26-000028 |
| 8-K (5.02) | Board | 2 Jul 2026 | 0001594805-26-000035 |
| 8-K (8.01) Ex 99.1 | BFCM 2025 | 2 Dec 2025 | 0001594805-25-000090 |
| Schedule 13G | 30 Jun 2026 | 30 Jul 2026 | 0002012383-26-003063 |
| 144 | Lutke | 4 Sep 2026 | 0001193125-26-383695 |
| 144 | Lutke | 5 Jun 2026 | 0001193125-26-259701 |
| 144 | Lutke | 6 Mar 2026 | 0001666546-26-000002 |
| 10-Q (MELI) | Q2 2026 | 5 Aug 2026 | 0001099590-26-000023 |
| 10-K (MELI) | FY2025 | 25 Feb 2026 | 0001099590-26-000006 |
| 6-K (WIX) | Q2 2026 | 4 Aug 2026 | 0001628280-26-052108 |
| 6-K (WIX) | Q4 2025 | 4 Mar 2026 | 0001628280-26-014406 |
Table A.2 Peer filings used
| Company | Form | Filed | Accession number |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | 8-K | 29 Oct 2026 | 0001018724-26-000038 |
| eBay | 8-K | 28 Oct 2026 | 0001065088-26-000209 |
| MercadoLibre | 8-K | 5 Aug 2026 | 0001099590-26-000021 |
| Commerce.com | 8-K | 6 Aug 2026 | 0001193125-26-336701 |
| PayPal | 8-K | 27 Oct 2026 | 0001633917-26-000086 |
| Block | 8-K | 3 Nov 2026 | 0001628280-26-069513 |
| Affirm | 10-K | 27 Aug 2026 | 0001628280-26-059279 |
Table B.1 Exhibits to Forms 8-K filed in the last twelve months
| Filed | Exhibit | Document | Content |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2025 | EX-99.1 | Q3 2025 results | GMV $92.0bn (+32%); revenue $2.844bn (+32%); MRR $193m; Subscription solutions $699m, merchant solutions $2.145bn |
| 2 Dec 2025 | EX-99.1 | Black Friday Cyber Monday 2025 sales | Merchant sales (GMV) of $14.6bn over the BFCM weekend, +27% (+24% constant currency); 81m+ customers bought from Shopify merchants; peak of $5.1m per minute at 12:01pm EST on Black Friday |
| 11 Feb 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q4 and FY2025 results; $2bn buyback | Q4 2025 GMV $123.8bn (+31%); revenue $3.672bn (+31%); free cash flow $715m, 19% margin; FY2025 GMV $378.4bn (+29%); revenue $11.556bn (+30%); operating income $1.468bn; free cash flow $2.007bn (17% margin) |
| 5 May 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q1 2026 results | GMV $100.7bn (+35%); revenue $3.17bn (+34%); MRR $212m (+16%); Merchant solutions $2.42bn (+39%); subscription solutions $750m (+21%) |
| 8 May 2026 | EX-99.1 | Management information circular for the 16 Jun 2026 AGM | Ten director nominees, incl. new nominee Jeanne DeWitt Grosser (COO, Vercel); Gail Goodman retiring after nine years; 2025 total pay: Tobias Lütke $35.0m (all options; $150.0m in 2024), CFO Jeff Hoffmeister $10.5m, COO Jessica Hertz $12.0m, President Harley Finkelstein $7.5m |
| 2 Jun 2026 | EX-99.1 | $3bn increase to share repurchase program | Board added $3bn, taking aggregate repurchase authorisation to $5bn (about C$6.9bn); About $1.45bn repurchased under the prior authorisation as of 1 Jun 2026 |
| 16 Jun 2026 | EX-99.1 | 2026 AGM voting results | All 10 directors elected; lowest support Joseph Natale 90.45%, Fidji Simo 96.66%; Tobias Lütke 97.72%; PwC reappointed with 99.42% |
| 2 Jul 2026 | none (Item 5.02 text) | Director resignation | The Audit Committee chair resigned from the board on 2 Jul 2026 to take a full time role at the U.S. Department of Commerce; Joe Natale expected to chair the Audit Committee |
| 5 Aug 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q2 2026 results | GMV $115.6bn (+32%); revenue $3.583bn (+34%, +33% constant currency); MRR $221m; Merchant solutions $2.781bn (+37%); subscription solutions $802m (+22%) |
| 3 Nov 2026 | EX-99.1 | Q3 2026 results | GMV $119.1bn (+29%); revenue $3.742bn (+32%, +32% constant currency); MRR $230m (+19%); Merchant solutions $2.906bn (+35%); subscription solutions $836m (+20%) |
