October 1, 2026·27 min read

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Financial Analysis

Insights derived from analysing SEC filings. Independent analysis, not a publication of the SEC.

Figures come from Forms 10-K for FY2021 to FY2025, Forms 10-Q for FY2025 and FY2026, and Forms 8-K from Jul 2024 to Sep 2026 with their quarterly earnings exhibits 99.1. Other sources are proxy statements of 2025 and 2026, Schedules 13G, Forms 13F and Forms 4 and 144 filed under central index key 1730168, and comparable filings of seven peers. The Sources appendix lists the accession number of every filing used. Market prices are closing prices of 30 September 2026.

Revenue TTM

$89.10bn

up 55.0% in 9M FY2026

AI revenue Q3 FY2026

$16.7bn

56% of revenue; Q4 guide $21.7bn

Core operating margin TTM

57.5%

GAAP 48.0%

Share price

$351.19

close of 30 Sep 2026

P/E, FY2026 non GAAP

30x

on $11.61 of non GAAP EPS

Scenario values, end FY2029

$118 / 447 / 841

worst / base / best case per share

Key conclusions

AI revenue drives growth. Q3 FY2026 revenue (to 2 Aug 2026) was $29.59bn, up 86%. AI semiconductor revenue was $16.7bn, up 221% and 56% of the total. Q4 FY2026 guidance is about $34.8bn of revenue, including $21.7bn of AI revenue. On the Sep 2026 call, management put FY2026 AI revenue at about $58bn and FY2027 AI revenue at about $115bn.
Contracted revenue rose 5.4x. Remaining performance obligations were $179.2bn at 2 Aug 2026, up from $33.3bn at FY2025 year end. The increase followed a long term custom AI accelerator contract signed in Q2 FY2026. About 25% is due within twelve months. Purchase commitments rose to $126.8bn.
Core operating margin was 57.5% TTM. TTM gross margin was 68.8% and GAAP operating margin 48.0%. Core margin excludes acquired intangible amortization and restructuring but counts stock compensation as a cost. On the call, management guided Q4 gross margin to about 73%, down from 75.0% non GAAP in Q3, due to higher memory content.
Concentration and financing exposure increased. One distributor was 50% of Q3 revenue and the five largest end customers about 55%, up from 32% and 40% a year earlier. Broadcom backstops one customer's AI rack leases, with maximum exposure of about $29bn.
Shares trade at 45x TTM GAAP EPS. At $351.19, shares trade at 36x TTM non GAAP EPS and 30x FY2026 non GAAP EPS of $11.61. The FY2026 figure combines nine month actuals and Q4 guidance. EV is 19.2x TTM revenue.
Scenario values for end FY2029 are $118 (worst), 447 (base) and 841 (best) per share. Current price is 44x worst case, 17x base case and 12x best case FY2029 core EPS. In the sensitivity analysis, AI revenue and the exit P/E move value the most.

Views on these results differ. Arguments for a lower valuation cite customer concentration, the lease backstop, supply limits in memory and advanced wafers, and 66.4% say on pay support in 2026. Arguments for a higher valuation cite $179.2bn of contracted revenue, Google, Apple and Anthropic agreements, and hyperscaler capital spending of about $720bn to 745bn guided for 2026.

1 Revenue and business model

Broadcom designs and supplies semiconductors and infrastructure software. Semiconductor solutions covers custom AI accelerators (XPUs), Ethernet switching and routing, network interface cards, optics, wireless, storage and broadband chips. Infrastructure software covers VMware private cloud, mainframe, cybersecurity and other enterprise software. Semiconductors were 67% of TTM revenue and 70% of Q3 FY2026 revenue.

Acquisitions. VMware closed on 22 Nov 2023 for about $30.8bn in cash and 544m shares (split adjusted); goodwill rose from $43.7bn to $97.9bn. Broadcom sold the end user computing unit to KKR for $3.5bn on 1 Jul 2024. It repaid the 2023 term loans that funded the deal by Jul 2025.
Customer agreements. Google: custom TPUs and AI rack components, with terms up to 2031. Anthropic will access about 3.5 GW of TPU based compute through Broadcom from 2027 (8-K, 6 Apr 2026). Apple: custom silicon across several product generations through 2031 (8-K, 6 Jul 2026).
AI XPV platform. Broadcom set up the platform with financial partners for more than 20 GW of XPU based compute through 2028. A first $35bn tranche in Jun 2026 funds more than 1 GW for one customer. The customer may issue Broadcom up to $42bn of convertible notes (Q3 FY2026 10-Q).
Supply and people. TSMC made about 95% of contract manufactured wafers in FY2025. Broadcom has about 33,000 employees, 57% of them in R&D, and about 19,000 patents.

Figure 1.1. Revenue and margins FY2021 to FY2026E

Table 1.1. Revenue by segment

Segment	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM	FY2025 y/y	9M FY2026 y/y	TTM share
Semiconductor solutions	20.38bn	25.82bn	28.18bn	30.10bn	36.86bn	59.44bn	22.5%	87.6%	66.7%
Infrastructure software	7.07bn	7.38bn	7.64bn	21.48bn	27.03bn	29.67bn	25.8%	13.1%	33.3%
Total revenue	27.45bn	33.20bn	35.82bn	51.57bn	63.89bn	89.10bn	23.9%	55.0%	100.0%

TTM = Q4 FY2025 to Q3 FY2026. Software revenue in FY2024 and later includes VMware.

Table 1.2. Segment operating income

$	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM
Semiconductor solutions	10.98bn	15.07bn	16.49bn	16.76bn	21.23bn	36.06bn
Infrastructure software	4.94bn	5.22bn	5.64bn	13.98bn	20.77bn	23.71bn
Unallocated expenses	(7.39)bn	(6.07)bn	(5.92)bn	(17.27)bn	(16.51)bn	(16.96)bn
Semiconductor segment margin	53.8%	58.4%	58.5%	55.7%	57.6%	60.7%
Software segment margin	69.8%	70.7%	73.8%	65.1%	76.8%	79.9%

Unallocated expenses include acquired intangible amortization, stock compensation, restructuring and other items; from FY2025 they equal total operating income less the two segments.

Table 1.3. Revenue by ship to country

Country	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2025 share
United States	5.29bn	5.92bn	6.97bn	12.89bn	16.51bn	25.8%
China	9.75bn	11.64bn	11.53bn	10.48bn	11.15bn	17.5%
Singapore	2.75bn	4.00bn	4.48bn	9.56bn	10.80bn	16.9%
Taiwan	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	6.45bn	10.1%
Other	9.66bn	11.65bn	12.83bn	18.64bn	18.98bn	29.7%

China includes Hong Kong. Taiwan is reported separately from FY2025; before that it is in Other. Broadcom states that a substantial portion of products shipped to China ends up in devices sold in the US and Europe.

2 Financial analysis and ratios

Nine month FY2026 revenue rose 55.0% to $71.09bn; semiconductor revenue rose 87.6% and software 13.1%. GAAP operating income rose 96.4% to $35.31bn. Net income rose 103.6% to $29.75bn. Nine month tax provision rose to $3.85bn from $1.25bn a year earlier after Singapore's global minimum tax took effect.

Figure 2.1. Quarterly revenue and margins

Table 2.1. Income statement; TTM = Q4 FY2025 to Q3 FY2026

$	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM
Revenue	27.45bn	33.20bn	35.82bn	51.57bn	63.89bn	89.10bn
Cost of revenue	(10.61)bn	(11.11)bn	(11.13)bn	(19.07)bn	(20.59)bn	(27.83)bn
Gross profit	16.84bn	22.09bn	24.69bn	32.51bn	43.29bn	61.28bn
Research and development	(4.85)bn	(4.92)bn	(5.25)bn	(9.31)bn	(10.98)bn	(11.84)bn
Selling, general and administrative	(1.35)bn	(1.38)bn	(1.59)bn	(4.96)bn	(4.21)bn	(4.18)bn
Operating income	8.52bn	14.22bn	16.21bn	13.46bn	25.48bn	42.81bn
of which acquired intangible amortization	(5.40)bn	(4.36)bn	(3.25)bn	(9.27)bn	(8.06)bn	(7.99)bn
of which restructuring and impairment	(165.0)m	(62.0)m	(248.0)m	(1.79)bn	(667.0)m	(466.0)m
Interest expense	(1.89)bn	(1.74)bn	(1.62)bn	(3.95)bn	(3.21)bn	(3.12)bn
Other income, net	131.0m	(54.0)m	512.0m	406.0m	455.0m	771.0m
Income tax	(29.0)m	(939.0)m	(1.01)bn	(3.75)bn	397.0m	(2.20)bn
Net income	6.74bn	11.49bn	14.08bn	5.89bn	23.13bn	38.27bn
Diluted EPS, $	1.50	2.65	3.30	1.23	4.77	7.83
Diluted shares, m	4,290	4,230	4,270	4,778	4,853	4,887

Fiscal years end on the Sunday nearest 31 Oct; FY2024 had 53 weeks. EPS and share counts are adjusted for the 10 for 1 split of Jul 2024. FY2021 and FY2022 EPS deduct preferred dividends of $299m and 272m. FY2024 tax includes a $4.5bn non cash provision in Q3 FY2024. TTM EPS is the sum of four quarters.

Table 2.2. What changed: FY2025 against FY2024 and 9M FY2026 against 9M FY2025

	Full year			Nine months
$	FY2024	FY2025	Change	9M FY2025	9M FY2026	Change
Revenue	51.57bn	63.89bn	23.9%	45.87bn	71.09bn	55.0%
Semiconductor solutions	30.10bn	36.86bn	22.5%	25.79bn	48.36bn	87.6%
Infrastructure software	21.48bn	27.03bn	25.8%	20.09bn	22.73bn	13.1%
Gross profit	32.51bn	43.29bn	33.2%	31.05bn	49.03bn	57.9%
Research and development	9.31bn	10.98bn	17.9%	8.00bn	8.86bn	10.7%
Selling, general and administrative	4.96bn	4.21bn	(15.1%)	3.10bn	3.07bn	(1.1%)
Operating income	13.46bn	25.48bn	89.3%	17.98bn	35.31bn	96.4%
Net income	5.89bn	23.13bn	292.3%	14.61bn	29.75bn	103.6%
Operating cash flow	19.96bn	27.54bn	37.9%	19.83bn	32.95bn	66.1%
Free cash flow	19.41bn	26.91bn	38.6%	19.45bn	31.94bn	64.2%
Stock based compensation	5.67bn	7.57bn	33.5%	5.37bn	6.29bn	17.0%
Dividends paid	9.81bn	11.14bn	13.5%	8.35bn	9.28bn	11.2%
Share repurchases	7.18bn	2.45bn	(65.9%)	2.45bn	8.45bn	244.9%
Gross margin	63.0%	67.8%	4.7 pts	67.7%	69.0%	1.3 pts
Operating margin	26.1%	39.9%	13.8 pts	39.2%	49.7%	10.5 pts

Table 2.3. Core earnings reconciliation

$	FY2025	TTM
Operating income, GAAP	25.48bn	42.81bn
Add: acquired intangible amortization	8.06bn	7.99bn
Add: restructuring and impairment	667.0m	466.0m
Operating income, core	34.21bn	51.27bn
Operating margin, core	53.6%	57.5%
Income before tax, GAAP	22.73bn	40.47bn
Less: business sale gain (FY2025) and VMware excise tax reversal (TTM)	(163.0)m	(315.0)m
Add: amortization, restructuring and impairment	8.73bn	8.46bn
Income before tax, core	31.30bn	48.61bn
Net income, core (16% tax)	26.29bn	40.84bn
Diluted EPS, GAAP / core, $	4.77 / 5.42	7.83 / 8.36
Diluted EPS, company non GAAP, $	6.82	9.76

Core earnings count stock based compensation as a cost and tax adjusted income at 16%, the company non GAAP tax rate in 9M FY2026. Company non GAAP EPS also excludes stock compensation (Ex 99.1 of each quarter).

Figure 2.2. Cash flow, shareholder returns and gross margin

Table 2.4. Ratio analysis, FY2021 to FY2025 and TTM

Ratio	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	TTM
Growth
Revenue growth	n/a	21.0%	7.9%	44.0%	23.9%	48.7%
Semiconductor growth	n/a	26.7%	9.2%	6.8%	22.5%	n/a
Software growth	n/a	4.5%	3.4%	181.2%	25.8%	n/a
Software share	25.7%	22.2%	21.3%	41.6%	42.3%	33.3%
Profitability
Gross margin	61.4%	66.5%	68.9%	63.0%	67.8%	68.8%
Operating margin	31.0%	42.8%	45.2%	26.1%	39.9%	48.0%
Core operating margin	51.3%	56.2%	55.0%	47.5%	53.6%	57.5%
Net margin	24.5%	34.6%	39.3%	11.4%	36.2%	42.9%
FCF margin	48.5%	49.1%	49.2%	37.6%	42.1%	44.2%
ROE	27.0%	48.2%	60.3%	12.9%	31.0%	44.2%
ROA	8.9%	15.4%	19.3%	4.9%	13.7%	21.6%
Cost structure
R&D / revenue	17.7%	14.8%	14.7%	18.1%	17.2%	13.3%
SG&A / revenue	4.9%	4.2%	4.4%	9.6%	6.6%	4.7%
SBC / revenue	6.2%	4.6%	6.1%	11.0%	11.8%	9.5%
Amortization / revenue	19.7%	13.1%	9.1%	18.0%	12.6%	9.0%
Balance sheet and working capital
Goodwill and intangibles / assets	72.5%	69.3%	65.2%	83.6%	76.0%	66.0%
Days sales outstanding	28	33	32	31	41	56
Days inventory	91	104	88	66	66	83
Current ratio	2.64x	2.62x	2.82x	1.17x	1.71x	2.50x
Leverage and returns
Debt / equity	1.59x	1.74x	1.64x	1.00x	0.80x	0.60x
Net debt / EBITDA	1.91x	1.42x	1.25x	2.50x	1.43x	0.69x
Interest coverage	4.5x	8.2x	10.0x	3.4x	7.9x	13.7x
Shareholder returns / FCF	47%	86%	76%	88%	51%	52%
Valuation
EV / sales at year end	n/a	6.4x	10.1x	16.3x	28.0x	19.2x
P/E at year end	n/a	17x	25x	136x	77x	45x

Returns use average equity and assets. EBITDA = operating income plus depreciation and acquired intangible amortization. Days inventory uses cost of revenue less amortization. Year end valuation uses the October close; TTM uses 30 Sep 2026. TTM growth is measured against Q4 FY2024 to Q3 FY2025.

Figure 2.3. Operating costs as % of revenue

Table 2.5. Balance sheet, period end

$	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	2 Aug 2026
Cash and equivalents	12.16bn	12.42bn	14.19bn	9.35bn	16.18bn	23.98bn
Accounts receivable	2.07bn	2.96bn	3.15bn	4.42bn	7.14bn	13.71bn
Inventories	1.30bn	1.93bn	1.90bn	1.76bn	2.27bn	4.52bn
Goodwill	43.45bn	43.61bn	43.65bn	97.87bn	97.80bn	97.80bn
Intangible assets	11.37bn	7.11bn	3.87bn	40.58bn	32.27bn	26.32bn
Total assets	75.57bn	73.25bn	72.86bn	165.65bn	171.09bn	188.15bn
Total debt	39.73bn	39.52bn	39.23bn	67.57bn	65.14bn	59.42bn
Net debt	27.57bn	27.10bn	25.04bn	58.22bn	48.96bn	35.44bn
Stockholders' equity	24.96bn	22.71bn	23.99bn	67.68bn	81.29bn	99.69bn
Shares outstanding, m	4,130	4,180	4,140	4,686	4,741	4,774

Table 2.6. Debt principal by maturity at 2 Aug 2026

Maturity	Principal
Within twelve months	2.25bn
2028 to 2029	7.53bn
2030 to 2031	14.76bn
2032 to 2033	12.18bn
2034 to 2036	17.01bn
2037 to 2056	7.35bn
Total principal, 42 instruments	61.08bn

Senior notes $59.3bn and fixed rate term loans $1.75bn; weighted coupon about 4.0%. A $7.5bn revolving facility is undrawn. Remaining buyback authorization is $10.1bn. Quarterly dividend is $0.65.

3 MD&A, guidance and management commentary

Broadcom guided Q4 FY2026 revenue to about $34.8bn, up 93%, with AI semiconductor revenue of $21.7bn and non GAAP operating margin of about 66%. The Q3 release replaced adjusted EBITDA guidance with non GAAP operating income guidance. Releases guide one quarter ahead; the multiyear AI outlook comes from the call.

Table 3.1. Recent quarters and guidance (earnings releases, Ex 99.1)

Item	Q4 FY2025	Q1 FY2026	Q2 FY2026	Q3 FY2026	Q4 FY2026 guide
Revenue	$18.02bn	$19.31bn	$22.19bn	$29.59bn	$34.8bn
Revenue growth y/y	28%	29%	48%	86%	93%
AI revenue	n/a (+74%)	$8.4bn	$10.8bn	$16.7bn	$21.7bn
Semiconductor / software revenue	$11.07bn / 6.94bn	$12.52bn / 6.80bn	$15.01bn / 7.18bn	$20.84bn / 8.75bn	n/a
Gross margin, GAAP / non GAAP	68.0% / 77.9%	68.1% / 77.0%	69.5% / 77.1%	69.1% / 75.0%	about 73% non GAAP (call)
Operating margin, non GAAP	66.2%	66.4%	67.3%	67.9%	about 66%
Diluted EPS, GAAP / non GAAP	$1.74 / 1.95	$1.50 / 2.05	$1.91 / 2.44	$2.68 / 3.32	n/a
Free cash flow	$7.47bn	$8.01bn	$10.26bn	$13.67bn	n/a

Sources: 8-K 0001730168-25-000116, 0001730168-26-000011, 0001730168-26-000051 and 0001730168-26-000076. Q4 FY2025 release states AI revenue growth only.

MD&A, FY2025 10-K. Revenue rose 24% to $63.89bn. Semiconductor revenue rose 22% on custom AI accelerators and AI networking; software revenue rose 26% on VMware Cloud Foundation. A $397m tax benefit was net of a $1.32bn valuation allowance after the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Singapore's minimum tax would raise FY2026 tax materially (10-K).
MD&A, Q3 FY2026 10-Q. Gross margin was 69%. A higher mix of semiconductor revenue offset the benefit of growth. Inventory rose to $4.52bn from $2.27bn to support AI shipments. Debt principal fell to $61.1bn after Broadcom repurchased $5.64bn of notes in Q3. The 10-Q states that most new software contracts now exclude termination for convenience provisions.
Earnings call, 2 Sep 2026 (company investor materials, summarised from third party transcripts). CEO Hock Tan put FY2026 AI revenue at about $58bn. He said Broadcom has secured supply to roughly double it to about $115bn in FY2027 and has line of sight to about $230bn in FY2028. He cited six XPU customers and named Google, Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta. He said Broadcom is "on target to exceed $30 in earnings per share in fiscal 2028".
Constraints named on the call. Data center power and space, lasers, substrates, high bandwidth memory and leading edge wafers. CFO Amie Thuener (in the role since 12 Jun 2026) guided Q4 capex to about $1.4bn. She named Apollo and Blackstone as AI XPV partners.

4 Sector and competitor analysis

Broadcom's year to date revenue growth of 55.0% is below NVIDIA (95.8%) and above AMD (44.1%), Arista, Marvell, Texas Instruments, Intel and Qualcomm. Its TTM gross margin of 68.8% compares with 74.7% at NVIDIA and 52.2% at Marvell, which also sells custom AI chips. Its TTM revenue of $89.10bn ranks second after NVIDIA.

Hyperscaler capital spending. Microsoft spent $115.9bn in its year to Jun 2026, Amazon $131.8bn in 2025, Alphabet $91.4bn in 2025 and Meta $69.7bn in 2025 (10-K filings). Their combined 2026 guidance is about $720bn to 745bn. Meta's $130bn to 145bn comes from its 8-K; the other figures come from earnings calls.
AI networking. Dell'Oro reported that AI back end switch sales exceeded front end switch sales for the first time in Q2 2026. It projects cumulative AI back end switch spending of nearly $1tn over 2026 to 2030 and expects Ethernet to lead scale up networks by 2030.
Custom silicon. Marvell estimated a custom XPU market of $40.8bn by calendar 2028 (company blog, Jul 2025). Broadcom's Q3 FY2026 AI revenue was $16.7bn.
China. Shipments to China, including Hong Kong, were 11.15bn in FY2025, or 17% of revenue, down from 20% in FY2024. In Jan 2026 the Commerce Department moved advanced AI chip exports to China to case by case review.
Software. In Mar 2026 CISPE, a group of European cloud providers, filed a complaint with the European Commission over changes to the VMware partner program (trade press report).

Table 4.1. Peer comparison, TTM to the latest 10-Q; market data at 29 to 30 Sep 2026

Company	Year end	Revenue	Growth YTD	Gross margin	Operating margin	FCF margin	R&D / revenue	Market cap, $	P/E TTM
Broadcom	FY Nov	89.10bn	55.0%	68.8%	48.0%	44.2%	13.3%	1.68tn	45x
NVIDIA	FY Jan	302.97bn	95.8%	74.7%	65.2%	41.9%	7.8%	5.51tn	29x
AMD	FY Dec	41.30bn	44.1%	53.2%	15.7%	20.3%	22.7%	998.7bn	157x
Marvell	FY Jan	9.45bn	32.2%	52.2%	16.5%	18.3%	25.8%	238.5bn	88x
Qualcomm	FY Sep	44.07bn	(0.7%)	54.2%	23.2%	23.6%	22.4%	196.6bn	21x
Intel	FY Dec	57.03bn	16.4%	38.6%	(0.1%)	5.0%	23.1%	631.3bn	n/m
Texas Instruments	FY Dec	19.45bn	20.8%	58.3%	37.3%	27.5%	10.7%	257.2bn	43x
Arista	FY Dec	10.54bn	36.5%	63.0%	43.1%	48.9%	13.0%	257.5bn	65x

Growth compares the latest fiscal year to date with the prior year period. P/E uses filed TTM diluted EPS. NVIDIA TTM earnings include equity security gains; Marvell TTM earnings a $1.83bn divestiture gain; Intel has a TTM loss.

Figure 4.1. Revenue growth and gross margin, peers

Figure 4.2. Operating and FCF margin, peers

5 Material events and filings

In the year to Sep 2026 Broadcom signed long term agreements with Google, Anthropic and Apple, launched its AI XPV financing platform, started a $10bn buyback program and changed its CFO. In 9M FY2026 it issued $4.5bn of notes and repaid or repurchased $10.54bn of debt.

Table 5.1. FY2025 10-K items and Q3 FY2026 10-Q updates

Item	Content
Items 1 and 7, Business and MD&A	Two segments; about 33,000 employees. One distributor was 32% of FY2025 revenue, distributors in total 48% and the five largest end customers about 40%. Competitors are described by type, without names.
Item 1A, Risk factors	FY2025 against FY2024: 19 new and 45 reworded paragraphs. New topics: AI cycle sustainability, customers with constrained capital seeking vendor financing, rack sales or leasing that may lower gross margin, tariffs, factoring and buyback variability. VMware integration risk was removed.
Q3 FY2026 10-Q, Part II Item 1A	Adds backstop and guarantee obligations, an AI spending 'bubble' reference, the 'supply chain risk' designation, memory as a critical material and a materially higher tax provision from the global minimum tax.
Item 1C, Cybersecurity	Program aligned with NIST CSF and ISO 27001; Audit Committee briefed at least quarterly.
Item 3, Legal proceedings	VMware backlog securities class action settled; the court approved the settlement in Mar 2025.
Item 9A, Controls	Controls were effective at 2 Nov 2025; PricewaterhouseCoopers audited internal control.

10-K 0001730168-25-000121; 10-Q 0001730168-26-000080; risk factor comparison against 10-K 0001730168-24-000139.

Table 5.2. Form 8-K events, Jul 2025 to Sep 2026

Filed	Items	Event
2 Sep 2026	2.02, 8.01	Q3 FY2026 results: revenue $29.59bn (+86%); AI revenue $16.7bn; Q4 guidance $34.8bn
6 Jul 2026	8.01	Apple agreements for custom silicon across several product generations through 2031
18 Jun 2026	8.01	Debt tender results: about $2.9bn of 2037 and 2038 notes accepted
11 Jun 2026	8.01	Cash tender offers launched for six note series, up to $2.5bn (cap later raised to $3.0bn)
3 Jun 2026	2.02, 8.01	Q2 FY2026 results: revenue $22.19bn (+48%); AI revenue $10.8bn; Q3 guidance $29.4bn
21 Apr 2026	5.07	Annual meeting results: eight directors elected; say on pay approved
6 Apr 2026	8.01	Google agreements for custom TPUs and AI rack components through up to 2031; Anthropic to access about 3.5 GW through Broadcom from 2027
2 Apr 2026	5.02	CFO Kirsten Spears to retire; Amie Thuener appointed CFO from 12 Jun 2026
4 Mar 2026	2.02, 8.01	Q1 FY2026 results: revenue $19.31bn (+29%); $7.8bn of buybacks; new $10bn buyback program
2 Mar 2026	5.02	Lead independent director Eddy Hartenstein to retire at the 2026 meeting
13 Jan 2026	8.01	$4.5bn of senior notes issued; about $4.0bn of 2027 and 2028 notes called
11 Dec 2025	2.02, 8.01	Q4 FY2025 results: revenue $18.02bn (+28%); FY2025 $63.89bn; dividend raised 10% to $0.65
29 Sep 2025	8.01	$5.0bn of senior notes issued; three 2027 note series redeemed
10 Sep 2025	8.01	VMware merger pro forma financial information
9 Sep 2025	5.02	CEO Hock Tan performance share award tied to AI revenue of $60bn to 120bn in FY2028 to FY2030
4 Sep 2025	2.02, 8.01	Q3 FY2025 results: revenue $15.95bn (+22%); AI revenue $5.2bn
11 Jul 2025	1.02, 8.01	$6.0bn of senior notes issued; remaining $6.0bn of 2023 term loans repaid

27 Form 8-K filings from Jul 2024 to Sep 2026; the Sources appendix lists all of them with accession numbers.

6 Annual shareholder meeting, ownership and insider activity

Annual shareholder meeting, 20 Apr 2026

Shareholders elected all eight directors and ratified the auditor. Say on pay passed with 66.4% of votes cast for or against, down from 92.5% in 2025. It was the first vote after Hock Tan's Sep 2025 performance share award. Shares represented were 4,105m of 4,736m (computed from vote totals).

Board. Lead independent director Eddy Hartenstein retired at the meeting under the age 75 policy. Harry You received the lowest support, 74.0%; Hock Tan received 99.7%.
Pay. Hock Tan's reported pay was $205.3m in FY2025, $2.6m in FY2024 and $161.8m in FY2023. The FY2025 figure is the target value of 610,521 performance shares. They pay 0% to 300% based on AI revenue in any four quarters of FY2028 to FY2030: 100% at $90bn and 300% at $120bn. CEO pay ratio was 543 to 1 (DEF 14A 0001193125-26-085691).

Table 6.1. Proposals and support (for as % of for plus against)

Proposal	Board view	2026	2025	Outcome
Say on pay	For	66.4%	92.5%	Approved
Ratify PricewaterhouseCoopers	For	98.0%	98.5%	Approved

Broker non votes: 420.7m in 2026. Say on pay support was about 61% in 2024 (2025 proxy). Shareholder proposals: none in either year. Sources: 8-K 0001730168-26-000039 and 0001730168-25-000037.

Table 6.2. Director elections, support as % of for plus against

Director	2026	2025
Harry L. You	74.0%	90.8%
Check Kian Low	92.1%	98.9%
Diane M. Bryant	93.6%	99.3%
Henry Samueli	98.1%	98.0%
Gayla J. Delly	98.2%	99.3%
Kenneth Y. Hao	99.7%	99.7%
Justine F. Page	99.7%	99.7%
Hock E. Tan	99.7%	99.7%

Ownership and insider activity

Insiders sold $1,132m of stock in the twelve months to Sep 2026. Of this, $879m was sold under Rule 10b5-1 plans, mostly by entities of chair Henry Samueli, and $150m covered tax on vesting awards. Director Harry You bought 2,000 shares for $0.7m. Vanguard Capital Management held 7.49% at 31 Mar 2026 (Schedule 13G).

Table 6.3. Largest institutional holders from Form 13F, shares m

Holder	30 Jun 2026	% of shares	31 Mar 2026	31 Dec 2025	Change since Dec 2025
Vanguard	436.2	9.1%	436.4	482.7	(9.6%)
BlackRock	398.2	8.3%	n/a	379.9	4.8%
State Street	196.9	4.1%	191.4	190.1	3.6%
FMR	144.4	3.0%	124.1	123.2	17.2%
Capital World Investors	121.9	2.6%	116.2	123.3	(1.1%)
Geode Capital Management	116.4	2.4%	114.3	111.3	4.6%
Capital Research Global Investors	113.1	2.4%	116.0	86.4	31.0%
JPMorgan Chase	95.0	2.0%	91.8	93.8	1.3%
T. Rowe Price Associates	82.9	1.7%	84.5	85.5	(3.1%)
Capital International Investors	81.8	1.7%	84.0	141.9	(42.3%)

n/a: filing not retrieved. From 2026, Vanguard combines Vanguard Capital Management and Vanguard Portfolio Management. 13F positions combine more reporting entities than the 13G filings, so percentages differ.

Table 6.4. Insider sales, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026, $m (Form 4)

Insider	Role	Sales	Of which 10b5-1	Of which tax
Henry Samueli	Chair	878.3	878.3	0.0
Mark Brazeal	Chief Legal Officer	99.9	0.0	51.1
Hock Tan	President and CEO	58.9	0.0	34.6
Ram Velaga	President, Software	34.4	0.0	20.8
Kirsten Spears	Former CFO	31.9	0.0	21.5
Charlie Kawwas	President, Semiconductors	25.5	0.0	22.0
Justine Page	Director	2.1	0.8	0.0
Gayla Delly	Director	1.1	0.0	0.0
Total		1,132.1	879.1	150.0

50 Form 4 and 2 Form 3 filings. In Dec 2025 Hock Tan also contributed 130,000 shares ($42.4m) to an exchange fund. It was reported under sale code S and is excluded here. Forms 144 covered about $1.34bn of proposed sales.

EV to sales was 28.0x at the Oct 2025 close. It is now 19.2x TTM revenue and 16.2x the FY2026 revenue estimate of $105.89bn. Market capitalization is $1.68tn. The FY2026 dividend of $2.60 a share is a 0.7% yield. TTM free cash flow is 2.4% of market capitalization.

Figure 7.1. Monthly share price 2021 to 2026

Table 7.1. Fiscal year end valuation (October close)

Fiscal year	Market cap, $bn	Price, $	Diluted EPS, $	EV / sales
FY21	n/a	n/a	1.50	n/a
FY22	186	44.41	2.65	6.4x
FY23	337	81.44	3.30	10.1x
FY24	782	166.87	1.23	16.3x
FY25	1,739	366.87	4.77	28.0x
30 Sep 2026	1,676	351.19	7.83 TTM	19.2x

Prices are split and dividend adjusted monthly closes; Oct 2021 is unavailable. FY2024 EPS includes the Q3 FY2024 tax provision of $4.5bn.

8 Forward scenarios, FY2027 to FY2029

The model starts from the FY2026 revenue estimate of $105.89bn. FY2029 core EPS is $7.90 (worst), $20.34 (base) and $30.04 (best), against $10.22 for FY2026 on a core basis. Implied values per share at end FY2029 are $118, 447 and 841.

Table 8.1. Scenario assumptions, FY2027 to FY2029

Driver	Worst	Base	Best
AI revenue FY2027 / FY2028 / FY2029, $bn	75 / 75 / 65	100 / 150 / 175	115 / 200 / 240
Other revenue growth a year	(2%)	2%	4%
Core operating margin FY2027 / FY2028 / FY2029	52% / 48% / 45%	57% / 55% / 54%	60% / 60% / 60%
Diluted share count change a year	0.5%	0.0%	(0.5%)
Exit P/E on FY2029 core EPS	15x	22x	28x
Common to all	FY2026 base year: revenue $105.9bn (9M actual plus Q4 guidance); AI revenue $58bn (call), other revenue $47.9bn. Core operating income $62.5bn (59.0%), with Q4 at the guided 66% non GAAP margin less Q3 stock compensation. Net interest and other $(2.4)bn a year; tax rate 16%; 4,937m diluted shares in FY2026. Lease backstop losses excluded.

Table 8.2. Scenario outputs

Output	Worst	Base	Best
Revenue FY2029, $bn	110.1	225.8	293.9
Revenue CAGR FY2026 to FY2029	1.3%	28.7%	40.5%
Core operating income FY2029, $bn	49.5	121.9	176.3
Core EPS FY2027, $	10.32	14.02	16.50
Core EPS FY2029, $	7.90	20.34	30.04
Core EPS CAGR FY2026 to FY2029	(8.2%)	25.8%	43.2%
Implied value end FY2029, $ per share	118	447	841
Change against $351.19	(66%)	27%	139%
Annualized, to end FY2029	(29.7%)	8.2%	32.7%

Figure 8.1. Scenario EPS paths and implied values

Critical factors behind the best case

Table 8.3. Best case drivers: evidence to date and requirement

Factor	Evidence in filings and company materials	Best case requirement
AI revenue ramp	Q3 FY2026 AI revenue $16.7bn; Q4 guide $21.7bn; call outlook about $115bn in FY2027 and line of sight to $230bn in FY2028	AI revenue of $115bn, 200bn and 240bn in FY2027 to FY2029
Contracted demand	Remaining performance obligations $179.2bn, about 25% due within twelve months; Google and Apple agreements through 2031	Contracts convert to revenue on schedule
Supply	Purchase commitments $126.8bn, of which $72.95bn due in FY2028; call cites limits in memory, substrates, lasers and leading edge wafers	Supply meets the ramp with core margin held at 60%
Customer financing	AI XPV platform: backstop of about $29bn on one customer's leases; up to $42bn of customer convertible notes	Customers meet lease payments; zero backstop losses
Software	Software revenue $8.75bn in Q3 FY2026, up 29%; segment margin 84%	Other revenue grows 4% a year
Valuation multiple	P/E 30x FY2026 non GAAP EPS	Exit P/E 28x on FY2029 core EPS

Core assumptions and demand drivers

Demand. Best case follows the call outlook for FY2027 and reaches $200bn of AI revenue in FY2028, below the $230bn line of sight. Base case uses $100bn, 150bn and 175bn. Worst case holds AI revenue at $75bn and cuts it to $65bn in FY2029, as hyperscaler spending slows, a customer moves designs in house or a financed customer defaults.
Margin. Core margin includes stock compensation (9.5% of TTM revenue) and excludes acquired intangible amortization. 10-K risk factors state that rack sales or leasing will likely lower future gross margin. In the base case, core margin falls from 59.0% in FY2026 to 54% in FY2029.
Per share. In the base case, buybacks offset share issuance. Dividends are excluded from the implied value.
Excluded. Acquisitions, backstop payments, changes in export rules and one off items.

9 Sensitivity analysis

In Figure 9.1, 18 of 25 combinations of exit P/E and FY2029 core margin give a value at or above today's $351.19. At 14x, every combination gives a value below it. In Table 9.1, 18 of 25 combinations of AI revenue and margin reach today's price at 22x.

Figure 9.1. Sensitivity of value to exit P/E and margin

Table 9.1. Value per share, end FY2029, by AI revenue path and FY2029 core margin, 22x exit P/E

Margin \ AI revenue	50% of base	75% of base	100% of base	125% of base	150% of base
44%	219	291	363	435	507
49%	245	325	405	485	566
54%	271	359	447	536	624
59%	296	393	490	586	683
64%	322	427	532	637	742

Base AI revenue: $100bn, 150bn and 175bn in FY2027 to FY2029. Shading: values at or above $351.19 in blue.

Gross margin mix. On the call, management guided Q4 FY2026 gross margin to about 73%, down from 75.0% non GAAP in Q3, due to higher memory content in XPUs.
Backstop. A default by the financed customer could cost up to about $29bn, or $5.87 a share, before recovery from the racks.
Rates. Debt is fixed rate at a weighted coupon of about 4.0%; $9.78bn of principal matures by the end of 2029.

Appendix: method, sources and definitions

Data. Financial statements from XBRL in the 10-K for FY2021 to FY2025 and 10-Q filings for Q1 FY2025 to Q3 FY2026, retrieved through the SEC-API.io MCP server. Q4 FY2025 equals full year less the first nine months; quarterly cash flows are derived from year to date statements. AI revenue is taken from each earnings release.
Other sources. Earnings call of 2 Sep 2026 from third party transcript summaries. Peer data from peer 10-K and 10-Q filings. Sector data: hyperscaler 10-K and 8-K filings, Dell'Oro press releases, Commerce Department, Marvell company materials and trade press. Market prices: 29 to 30 Sep 2026.
Definitions. FCF = operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment. Core earnings are GAAP excluding items in Table 2.3. Net debt = total debt less cash.
Scenario model. EPS = ((AI revenue plus other revenue) x core margin less $2.4bn) x (1 less 16%) over diluted shares. Implied value = FY2029 EPS x exit P/E, undiscounted.

Sources

Table A.1. Annual, quarterly and proxy filings (central index key 1730168)

Form	Period or event	Accession number
10-K	FY2021	0001730168-21-000153
10-K	FY2022	0001730168-22-000118
10-K	FY2023	0001730168-23-000096
10-K	FY2024	0001730168-24-000139
10-K	FY2025	0001730168-25-000121
10-Q	Q1 FY2025	0001730168-25-000021
10-Q	Q2 FY2025	0001730168-25-000064
10-Q	Q3 FY2025	0001730168-25-000098
10-Q	Q1 FY2026	0001730168-26-000016
10-Q	Q2 FY2026	0001730168-26-000054
10-Q	Q3 FY2026	0001730168-26-000080
DEF 14A	2026 proxy statement	0001193125-26-085691
DEF 14A	2025 proxy statement	0001193125-25-044112

Table A.2. Forms 8-K

Form	Period or event	Accession number
8-K	2 Sep 2026, items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001730168-26-000076
8-K	6 Jul 2026, items 8.01	0001193125-26-295589
8-K	18 Jun 2026, items 8.01, 9.01	0001193125-26-275077
8-K	11 Jun 2026, items 8.01, 9.01	0001193125-26-266777
8-K	3 Jun 2026, items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001730168-26-000051
8-K	21 Apr 2026, items 5.07	0001730168-26-000039
8-K	6 Apr 2026, items 8.01	0001193125-26-144028
8-K	2 Apr 2026, items 5.02	0001193125-26-140574
8-K	4 Mar 2026, items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001730168-26-000011
8-K	2 Mar 2026, items 5.02	0001193125-26-085656
8-K	13 Jan 2026, items 8.01, 9.01	0001193125-26-011731
8-K	11 Dec 2025, items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001730168-25-000116
8-K	29 Sep 2025, items 8.01, 9.01	0001193125-25-223202
8-K	10 Sep 2025, items 8.01, 9.01	0001193125-25-200108
8-K	9 Sep 2025, items 5.02, 9.01	0001193125-25-199281
8-K	4 Sep 2025, items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001730168-25-000094
8-K	11 Jul 2025, items 1.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001193125-25-158202
8-K	5 Jun 2025, items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001730168-25-000061
8-K	22 Apr 2025, items 5.07	0001730168-25-000037
8-K	6 Mar 2025, items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001730168-25-000009
8-K	13 Jan 2025, items 1.02, 8.01	0001193125-25-005318
8-K	10 Jan 2025, items 8.01, 9.01	0001193125-25-004476
8-K	12 Dec 2024, items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001730168-24-000125
8-K	2 Oct 2024, items 8.01, 9.01	0001193125-24-231159
8-K	5 Sep 2024, items 2.02, 8.01, 9.01	0001730168-24-000095
8-K	12 Jul 2024, items 5.03, 8.01, 9.01	0001140361-24-033072
8-K	8 Jul 2024, items 8.01, 9.01	0001140361-24-032566

Table A.3. Schedules 13G

Form	Period or event	Accession number
SC 13G	Vanguard Capital Management, 2026-04-29	0002100119-26-000179
SC 13G/A	The Vanguard Group, 2026-03-26	0000102909-26-000847
SC 13G/A	Capital International Investors, 2025-02-07	0001562230-25-000007
SC 13G/A	Capital World Investors, 2024-11-13	0001422849-24-000066
SC 13G/A	The Vanguard Group, 2024-10-04	0000932471-24-000182

Table A.4. Forms 13F

Form	Period or event	Accession number
13F-HR	Vanguard Capital Management Llc, period 2026-06-30	0002100119-26-001527
13F-HR	Vanguard Portfolio Management Llc, period 2026-06-30	0002100121-26-001018
13F-HR/A	Vanguard Capital Management Llc, period 2026-03-31	0002100119-26-001311
13F-HR	Vanguard Portfolio Management Llc, period 2026-03-31	0002100121-26-000861
13F-HR	Vanguard Group Inc, period 2025-12-31	0000102909-26-000031
13F-HR	Vanguard Group Inc, period 2025-09-30	0000102909-25-000353
13F-HR	Blackrock, Inc., period 2026-06-30	0002012383-26-003238
13F-HR	Blackrock, Inc., period 2025-12-31	0002012383-26-000920
13F-HR	Blackrock, Inc., period 2025-09-30	0002012383-25-002949
13F-HR/A	State Street Corp, period 2026-06-30	0000093751-26-000583
13F-HR	State Street Corp, period 2026-03-31	0000093751-26-000315
13F-HR	State Street Corp, period 2025-12-31	0000093751-26-000100
13F-HR	State Street Corp, period 2025-09-30	0000093751-25-000651
13F-HR	Fmr Llc, period 2026-06-30	0000315066-26-002260
13F-HR	Fmr Llc, period 2026-03-31	0000315066-26-001390
13F-HR	Fmr Llc, period 2025-12-31	0000315066-26-000611
13F-HR	Fmr Llc, period 2025-09-30	0000315066-25-002929
13F-HR	Capital World Investors, period 2026-06-30	0001422849-26-000113
13F-HR	Capital World Investors, period 2026-03-31	0001422849-26-000046
13F-HR	Capital World Investors, period 2025-12-31	0001422849-26-000010
13F-HR	Capital World Investors, period 2025-09-30	0001422849-25-000069
13F-HR	Geode Capital Management, Llc, period 2026-06-30	0001214717-26-000008
13F-HR	Geode Capital Management, Llc, period 2026-03-31	0001214717-26-000006
13F-HR	Geode Capital Management, Llc, period 2025-12-31	0001214717-26-000003
13F-HR	Geode Capital Management, Llc, period 2025-09-30	0001214717-25-000016
13F-HR	Capital Research Global Investors, period 2026-06-30	0001422848-26-000094
13F-HR	Capital Research Global Investors, period 2026-03-31	0001422848-26-000041
13F-HR	Capital Research Global Investors, period 2025-12-31	0001422848-26-000005
13F-HR	Capital Research Global Investors, period 2025-09-30	0001422848-25-000223
13F-HR	Jpmorgan Chase & Co, period 2026-06-30	0000019617-26-000325
13F-HR/A	Jpmorgan Chase & Co, period 2026-03-31	0000019617-26-000225
13F-HR	Jpmorgan Chase & Co, period 2025-12-31	0000019617-26-000083
13F-HR	Price T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2026-06-30	0000080255-26-000519
13F-HR	Price T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2026-03-31	0000080255-26-000381
13F-HR	Price T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2025-12-31	0000080255-26-000231
13F-HR	Price T Rowe Associates Inc /Md/, period 2025-09-30	0000080255-25-000782
13F-HR	Capital International Investors, period 2026-06-30	0001562230-26-000107
13F-HR	Capital International Investors, period 2026-03-31	0001562230-26-000049
13F-HR	Capital International Investors, period 2025-12-31	0001562230-26-000005
13F-HR	Capital International Investors, period 2025-09-30	0001562230-25-000122

Forms 4, Oct 2025 to Sep 2026 (50 accession numbers with reported transactions): 0001104659-25-119782, 0001104659-26-036164, 0001104659-26-047737, 0001104659-26-078348, 0001104659-26-110983, 0001193125-26-170554, 0001211588-25-000005, 0001218358-26-000002, 0001359561-25-000007, 0001359561-26-000002, 0001359561-26-000004, 0001432602-25-000006, 0001608425-26-000002, 0001627720-25-000005, 0001627720-26-000002, 0001627720-26-000004, 0001670725-26-000002, 0001692615-26-000002, 0001730168-25-000112, 0001730168-25-000118, 0001730168-25-000123, 0001730168-25-000125, 0001730168-25-000127, 0001730168-25-000130, 0001730168-25-000132, 0001730168-26-000002, 0001730168-26-000004, 0001730168-26-000018, 0001730168-26-000020, 0001730168-26-000022, 0001730168-26-000024, 0001730168-26-000026, 0001730168-26-000028, 0001730168-26-000030, 0001730168-26-000032, 0001730168-26-000034, 0001730168-26-000041, 0001730168-26-000043, 0001730168-26-000056, 0001730168-26-000060, 0001730168-26-000062, 0001730168-26-000064, 0001730168-26-000066, 0001730168-26-000068, 0001730168-26-000070, 0001730168-26-000072, 0001730168-26-000082, 0001730168-26-000084, 0002103553-26-000002, 0002103553-26-000004.

Table A.5. Peer filings used

Company	Filing	Accession number
NVIDIA	FY2026 10-K	0001045810-26-000021
NVIDIA	FY2025 10-K	0001045810-25-000023
NVIDIA	Q2 FY2027 10-Q	0001045810-26-000075
AMD	FY2025 10-K	0000002488-26-000018
AMD	FY2025 10-K/A	0000002488-26-000021
AMD	FY2024 10-K	0000002488-25-000012
AMD	Q2 2026 10-Q	0000002488-26-000123
Marvell	FY2026 10-K	0001835632-26-000011
Marvell	FY2025 10-K	0001835632-25-000057
Marvell	Q2 FY2027 10-Q	0001835632-26-000025
Qualcomm	FY2025 10-K	0000804328-25-000085
Qualcomm	FY2024 10-K	0000804328-24-000075
Qualcomm	Q3 FY2026 10-Q	0000804328-26-000086
Intel	FY2025 10-K	0000050863-26-000011
Intel	FY2024 10-K	0000050863-25-000009
Intel	Q2 2026 10-Q	0000050863-26-000157
Texas Instruments	FY2025 10-K	0000097476-26-000059
Texas Instruments	FY2024 10-K	0000097476-25-000007
Texas Instruments	Q2 2026 10-Q	0000097476-26-000152
Arista	FY2025 10-K	0001596532-26-000013
Arista	FY2024 10-K	0001596532-25-000028
Arista	Q2 2026 10-Q	0001596532-26-000175

Disclaimer: for information only, not financial advice. This report is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Figures come from SEC filings retrieved through the SEC-API.io MCP server and from sources named above. Scenario values follow arithmetically from the stated assumptions. Consult a licensed adviser before investing.